Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Just stopped by the local shoe store. the inventory was low. I Asked "Not much to choose from, Corona Virus?"<Chuckle>. "Yes" she replied, "the manager said she is scared to order anything that comes from China."

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ORIGINAL: cantona2

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Forum is a repository of smart, well-reasoned folks, and some of them might offer informed opinions about the Corona virus outbreak and how it might play out. Chickenboy comes to mind, given his background, and there may be others. I hope you'll chime in, as your thoughts should be very interested to those of us who are laymen and have no clue what's going on.

To be perfectly honest the media is not helping one bit. News of people getting ill in a certain region are largely exaggerated, for example headline Coronavirus spreads to Southern Italy - one reported case!!! Look at the screenshot below from a local paper. Look at the thicknesses of the fonts and the colours for each piece of information!

I do not understand the mass hysteria on evidence when one reads a little deeper into the matter. I gave my maths group in school the task to work out the % of the world's population that has died (well published figures that is) using an estimated figure of 8 billion. I think it worked out at 0.0000000009% death rate.

Social media is not helping either with this being constantly thrust in peoples faces and lives every second of the day.

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ORIGINAL: USSAmerica

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ORIGINAL: Ian R

C to F - double it and add about 28.

So 24C about = 76F.

This only works in the span of about 10C to about 30C, outside those parameters 28 does not work.

F = (C x 9/5) +32.

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn'


"Yale historian Odd Arne Westad agrees. He noted: “The pre-1914 parallel is, of course, not just the growth in German power. What we, I think, need to focus on, is what actually led to war. What led to war was the German fear of being in a position where their power would not strengthen in the future, where they were, as they put it in the summer of 1914, at the maximum moment.”"

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ORIGINAL: Ian R

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn'


"Yale historian Odd Arne Westad agrees. He noted: “The pre-1914 parallel is, of course, not just the growth in German power. What we, I think, need to focus on, is what actually led to war. What led to war was the German fear of being in a position where their power would not strengthen in the future, where they were, as they put it in the summer of 1914, at the maximum moment.”"

According to Paul Kennedy, Imperial (2nd Reich) Germany's war making potential, or rather its % share of the global potential of the great powers, peaked in 1913.

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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

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ORIGINAL: cantona2

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Forum is a repository of smart, well-reasoned folks, and some of them might offer informed opinions about the Corona virus outbreak and how it might play out. Chickenboy comes to mind, given his background, and there may be others. I hope you'll chime in, as your thoughts should be very interested to those of us who are laymen and have no clue what's going on.

To be perfectly honest the media is not helping one bit. News of people getting ill in a certain region are largely exaggerated, for example headline Coronavirus spreads to Southern Italy - one reported case!!! Look at the screenshot below from a local paper. Look at the thicknesses of the fonts and the colours for each piece of information!

I do not understand the mass hysteria on evidence when one reads a little deeper into the matter. I gave my maths group in school the task to work out the % of the world's population that has died (well published figures that is) using an estimated figure of 8 billion. I think it worked out at 0.0000000009% death rate.

Social media is not helping either with this being constantly thrust in peoples faces and lives every second of the day.

I mostly agree. Fear-mongering and jostling for the limelight are running amok.

In the hysteria attached to 'bird flu' (remember that?) from about 2004-2007, I spent part of my lectures with veterinary students reviewing comparative risks of humans dying from H5N1 avian influenza to other commonplace and not so commonplace diseases. You are and were significantly more likely to die from bubonic plague (BLACK DEATH-remember that?) globally than you were from bird flu.

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ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

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ORIGINAL: Ian R

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn'


"Yale historian Odd Arne Westad agrees. He noted: “The pre-1914 parallel is, of course, not just the growth in German power. What we, I think, need to focus on, is what actually led to war. What led to war was the German fear of being in a position where their power would not strengthen in the future, where they were, as they put it in the summer of 1914, at the maximum moment.”"

According to Paul Kennedy, Imperial (2nd Reich) Germany's war making potential, or rather its % share of the global potential of the great powers, peaked in 1913.

The other side of the coin is that Britain's empire was at its peak, but didn't know it yet. Because the British nobility/lords felt superior and more powerful than the rest of the world, they felt they had the right to constrain Germany and any other competitor. Conflict with the US could have been in the cards but the US was more into economic empire than territorial empire. Point is, the Germans felt aggrieved by the British cutting them out of their own empire based economy and they were spoiling for a fight. The whole naval race thing was about Germany trying to break out of the strait jacket and Britain reinforcing it.

France had already lost most of its empire and bet on Britain being able to help it keep Germany from continental ambitions.
The sad thing is that if these empires had peacefully negotiated who got what and then traded with each other, they all would have been better off economically. Trade, not war, is the normal state of human relations.

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The dog is being quarantined at an animal facility, the Hong Kong government said. The department strongly advised that pets of confirmed virus patients also be put under quarantine.

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

A dog in Hong Kong has tested ‘weak positive’ for coronavirus
https://fortune.com/2020/02/27/coronavirus-dog-hong-kong/

The pet dog of a coronavirus patient in Hong Kong has been found to have a “low level” of the virus, the Hong Kong government said early Friday.

The dog tested “weak positive” for the coronavirus, the city’s agricultural and fisheries department said in a statement, without giving further details. Officials will carry out further tests to confirm whether the dog has really been infected with the disease, or if it was a result of environmental contamination of its mouth and nose.

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ORIGINAL: Macclan5

The interest in historical references is not surprising around here ; but interesting and informative.

Jorge posted - and I fully agree - that humanity is in a much better place scientifically / medically than ever before. There will be a cost but that cost must be compared to a population of 6 billion not 1 billion as historical examples equate to.

What is somewhat interesting is "thematic history seemingly repeating itself - at least superficially"

During the outbreak of the "Spanish flu pandemic" we seemed to be in a world on the cusp of unprecedented change. Industrialization, world travel, trade and communication had exploded like never before. Traditional agrarian - religious societies were be transformed in a dramatic way. Prior to 1900 the vast majority of the population world wide were born - lived - died within a 50km radius. Post 1900 that could no longer be said.

During the 2020s we seem to be in a world on the cusp of unprecedented change. The information economy, robot-ization, artificial intelligence seemed poised to explode like never before. The percentage of the world population subsisting on $1USD (1980 inflation adjusted) is at an all time low. Traditional Industrial - religious societies maybe transformed in a dramatic way. Prior to 2020 the vast majority of the world supply of everything - food - goods - resources were built up in interconnected Global Supply Chains. Perhaps post 2020's the economic risk of Global Supply Chains will have to be reconsidered ???

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ORIGINAL: DOCUP

Thanks Chickenboy. My background: I am a former army medic, now I am a Pediatric ICU nurse, I am also trained in ER, Adult ICU and Neonatal ICU. I work at a medium size tertiary hospital. During the Ebola fear a few years back, my hospital was the first one to build PICU rooms in my state capable of taking a patient under the age of 17 with Ebola.

Thanks guys for the extra information. I was able to get some from my hospital Infection control Doc's today, pretty much said the same thing that has been posted on here.

A quick breakdown for you all.

Ages 30-79 has been the most affected. Less than 3% has been under the age of 19 or over 80 (now those over 80 have been hit hard with it). Men are more apt to get it than women. People who or have these issues are at a higher risk or mortality smokers, COPD, cardiac disease, diabetes and any type of immune suppression issues.

My take on this: I am more worried about the Flu than I am about COVID-19. If you are not in a confined area, IE airplane, cruise ship, dorm, barracks, you should be ok. Wash your hands (most people wash them wrong, take notice do you wash your thumbs and between your fingers, get up under your nails?)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

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ORIGINAL: Macclan5

During the outbreak of the "Spanish flu pandemic" we seemed to be in a world on the cusp of unprecedented change.

During the 2020s we seem to be in a world on the cusp of unprecedented change.

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Coronavirus vaccine goes into test production.

A factory in Melbourne has started producing a test dose of a potential coronavirus vaccine which scientists will begin testing on animals this week.

The test vaccine was developed in just six weeks by University of Queensland researchers using world-first molecular clamp technology...

The University of Queensland team began work on their vaccine on January 11, when the first coronavirus genome – its DNA blueprint – was uploaded to the internet by Chinese scientists.

“We did not need the virus itself. All we needed was the sequence,” said Professor Paul Young.

The clamps are designed to hold the complex, changing the shape of the spike protein so the human immune system can get a good look at it – and learn to kill it.

"This is the first candidate of possibly many," said Professor George Lovrecz, research team leader at CSIRO’s manufacturing division.

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ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

This is just ridiculous:

https://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test

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ORIGINAL: DOCUP
After a few days they start feeling better (but not fulling recovered). They go out and start working in the fields, factory, or trenches. The flu comes back with a vengeances, this time they don't have the same type reserves (stored fat, energy etc) they had during the first battle with the flu.

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

Here is a coronavirus map that tracks the Coronavirus cases and number of deaths per country around the world.

https://infographics.channelnewsasia.com/covid-19/map.html

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

A dog in Hong Kong has tested ‘weak positive’ for coronavirus
https://fortune.com/2020/02/27/coronavirus-dog-hong-kong/

The pet dog of a coronavirus patient in Hong Kong has been found to have a “low level” of the virus, the Hong Kong government said early Friday.

The dog tested “weak positive” for the coronavirus, the city’s agricultural and fisheries department said in a statement, without giving further details. Officials will carry out further tests to confirm whether the dog has really been infected with the disease, or if it was a result of environmental contamination of its mouth and nose.

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ORIGINAL: obvert
Economic downturns are also dangerous

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ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


https://kathmandupost.com/national/2020/01/24/officials-confirm-novel-coronavirus-in-nepali-man-who-returned-from-wuhan-earlier-this-month

"Dr Hemanta Chandra Ojha, an official at the Epidemiology and Disease Control Division, said that samples from a 31-year-old Nepali student who had returned from Wuhan, China earlier this month, had come back positive for the new virus from a World Health Organisation laboratory in Hong Kong. The novel coronavirus originated in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province."

"The hospital had taken specimens—throat swabs and blood samples—from the patient and sent it to the WHO’s Collaborating Centre in Hong Kong on Tuesday."