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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:20:00 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2301
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
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Hello Y'all. I finally caught up to this thread. I'll provide an update from Korea (I normally don't call it South Korea, since if I were referring to the other one, it would be "Our Friends Up North").

Things are starting to get back to normal, although social pressure is keeping people cautious (BBfanboy noted above that there's a "great sense of community responsibility" in these parts, but I'd say it's more like "I don't want to bring shame to myself or my family," and Korea has the added incentive of being very sensitive to global opinion). I always keep a mask in my pocket, but the missus warned me today that Koreans are posting pics of mask-less foreigners on social media. So, for reasons of "etiquette," she wants me to put one on, and not bring shame to the family. In Korea, to the random person on the street, as a grey-haired, i.e. older, and thus higher up the Confucian totem pole, and larger person than most, as well as someone who may not speak Korean, I usually don't get hassled, and I haven't in this situation. I'm more worried about my wife than anything.

Yesterday the Korean government announced schools would re-open on April 6. Barring some new flare up, I think that's a solid date. That will give cover for a lot of things to return to normal, such as the British Embassy pub *cough* re-opening *cough*. I still don't know anyone who has this, nor have I heard from anyone else that they know someone who has it, in Korea anyway. My journo buddies who went into the danger zone of Daegu are all good three weeks later.

As a very rough estimate, I'd say the downtown area has about 30-40% of people working from home, based on number of people walking around and how crowded restaurants are at lunch. About half of my people work from home each day. Speaking of business, although we are returning to normal here, the rest of the world ramping up in infections makes things like international events impossible. One of the things we do is provide PR for such events in Korea, so we’re taking a big hit to project-based income. I don’t see how the Japanese can keep the Olympics going—Japan may well be perfectly fine in August, but what about other parts of the world?

One more tidbit that might interest some: I talked to a buddy who works at the big Camp Humphreys base where most of the U.S. Army has consolidated recently, and he said they are doing temperature checks and asking questions at the base gate (he has to do that every morning). He said his operation, which handles Secret stuff and is “essential,” has gone to two shifts for social distancing purposes. He said if he catches the virus and they determine he got it off-post, he will lose his base access permanently, which essentially means he’ll be fired. Basically, he is prohibited from visiting any bar or restaurant or going anywhere else in the country. The USFK has had a PR problem for most of its existence, so I can see why they are being cautious on this one.

Stay safe out there.

Cheers,
CB


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Post #: 1141
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:20:19 AM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
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All the happenings around CV19 remind me of the quote by Henry David Thoreau :

"It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see." = Thoreau

_____________________________








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Post #: 1142
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:32:29 AM   
Scott_USN

 

Posts: 715
Joined: 6/2/2004
From: Eagle River, Alaska USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

All the happenings around CV19 remind me of the quote by Henry David Thoreau :

"It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see." = Thoreau


Perfect.

(in reply to MakeeLearn)
Post #: 1143
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:34:13 AM   
Scott_USN

 

Posts: 715
Joined: 6/2/2004
From: Eagle River, Alaska USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Hello Y'all. I finally caught up to this thread. I'll provide an update from Korea (I normally don't call it South Korea, since if I were referring to the other one, it would be "Our Friends Up North").

Things are starting to get back to normal, although social pressure is keeping people cautious (BBfanboy noted above that there's a "great sense of community responsibility" in these parts, but I'd say it's more like "I don't want to bring shame to myself or my family," and Korea has the added incentive of being very sensitive to global opinion). I always keep a mask in my pocket, but the missus warned me today that Koreans are posting pics of mask-less foreigners on social media. So, for reasons of "etiquette," she wants me to put one on, and not bring shame to the family. In Korea, to the random person on the street, as a grey-haired, i.e. older, and thus higher up the Confucian totem pole, and larger person than most, as well as someone who may not speak Korean, I usually don't get hassled, and I haven't in this situation. I'm more worried about my wife than anything.

Yesterday the Korean government announced schools would re-open on April 6. Barring some new flare up, I think that's a solid date. That will give cover for a lot of things to return to normal, such as the British Embassy pub *cough* re-opening *cough*. I still don't know anyone who has this, nor have I heard from anyone else that they know someone who has it, in Korea anyway. My journo buddies who went into the danger zone of Daegu are all good three weeks later.

As a very rough estimate, I'd say the downtown area has about 30-40% of people working from home, based on number of people walking around and how crowded restaurants are at lunch. About half of my people work from home each day. Speaking of business, although we are returning to normal here, the rest of the world ramping up in infections makes things like international events impossible. One of the things we do is provide PR for such events in Korea, so we’re taking a big hit to project-based income. I don’t see how the Japanese can keep the Olympics going—Japan may well be perfectly fine in August, but what about other parts of the world?

One more tidbit that might interest some: I talked to a buddy who works at the big Camp Humphreys base where most of the U.S. Army has consolidated recently, and he said they are doing temperature checks and asking questions at the base gate (he has to do that every morning). He said his operation, which handles Secret stuff and is “essential,” has gone to two shifts for social distancing purposes. He said if he catches the virus and they determine he got it off-post, he will lose his base access permanently, which essentially means he’ll be fired. Basically, he is prohibited from visiting any bar or restaurant or going anywhere else in the country. The USFK has had a PR problem for most of its existence, so I can see why they are being cautious on this one.

Stay safe out there.

Cheers,
CB




Good to hear and being cautious is a good thing. Let's get back to work and move on!

(in reply to CaptBeefheart)
Post #: 1144
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:40:01 AM   
Scott_USN

 

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I feel bad for the people put out of work in the US. Especially the restaurant people who probably live week to week money wise (the majority). They closed down all the restaurants here which seems draconian and an over step in government power period. Yeah public safety is one thing draconian movements make me uneasy. We have exactly 2 known cases. 1 was a Cargo pilot from China who took extra measures to called the EMTs and told them what he thought he had and isolated himself and everyone who was in his vicinity was tested and no one got it from him. I give him kudos for being responsible but he has now returned to China after recovering, good job for being responsible bro.

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Post #: 1145
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:43:13 AM   
CaptBeefheart


Posts: 2301
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From: Seoul, Korea
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Gents: One further bit of interesting knowledge I stumbled upon yesterday. This is a very good piece on the different legal environments of the U.S. and Korea: Lessons for America: How South Korean Authorities Used Law to Fight the Coronavirus.

One reason why Korea has done well is if you get the virus, they'll track where you've been through your phone, credit card transactions and other means, then they'll contact everyone they think you've contacted.

Cheers,
CB


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Post #: 1146
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:43:56 AM   
Anachro


Posts: 2506
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All the restaurants here have shifted to a curbside delivery model: call in, order, drive up and park and they bring food out to your car. It's not a replacement, but can still get some good food rather than always eating at home (and yes, I am a decent cook).

(in reply to Scott_USN)
Post #: 1147
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:46:03 AM   
Scott_USN

 

Posts: 715
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From: Eagle River, Alaska USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

All the restaurants here have shifted to a curbside delivery model: call in, order, drive up and park and they bring food out to your car. It's not a replacement, but can still get some good food rather than always eating at home (and yes, I am a decent cook).


Good idea, keeps people employed also.

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Post #: 1148
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:47:29 AM   
NigelKentarus


Posts: 207
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From: OH, USN 20 yrs, & FL
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Now here in Florida, all bars and restaurants are closed for 30 days, but the beaches are still open.

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Post #: 1149
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 2:49:26 AM   
Scott_USN

 

Posts: 715
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From: Eagle River, Alaska USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: NigelKentarus

Now here in Florida, all bars and restaurants are closed for 30 days, but the beaches are still open.



Yeah that makes sense right? Haha

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Post #: 1150
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:05:40 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Australian researchers discover how body's immune system fights coronavirus COVID-19

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/research-how-bodys-immune-system-fights-coronavirus-covid-19/12059266?fbclid=IwAR1KEkwmMRdF9zscMxIxbuYd_awU-PUP93QKlDYSQs3az47yHyPfGswqeNo

With so many things closing, expect a baby boom starting in 9 months . . .

That's quite an accomplishment with 6 feet of social distancing!

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 1151
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:07:28 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
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From: My Mother, although my Father had some small part.
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Australian researchers discover how body's immune system fights coronavirus COVID-19

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/research-how-bodys-immune-system-fights-coronavirus-covid-19/12059266?fbclid=IwAR1KEkwmMRdF9zscMxIxbuYd_awU-PUP93QKlDYSQs3az47yHyPfGswqeNo

With so many things closing, expect a baby boom starting in 9 months . . .

That's quite an accomplishment with 6 feet of social distancing!


Not for the couples who have no place to go in the evenings or whenever they are not working . . .

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1152
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:18:09 AM   
BBfanboy


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From: Winnipeg, MB
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Scott_USN

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Scott_USN

In a few weeks people will be like what?

I don't get the gist of your question. What aspect of people (very complex critters) are you thinking of? Medical condition? Emotional state? Mental state? Political opinion? Physical condition? Financial condition? Nutritional condition? etc.


The insanity over a virus that is less dangerous that the common flu? People hoarding like it is a zombie apocalypse? Is over hyped to me. Overall the hysteria.

"Less dangerous than the common flu" was an early pronouncement when people heard it is less contagious. But we now know it is about 10 times as lethal and does not seem to respond to standard anti-viral treatments. All we seem to be able to do is help the serious cases breathe and hope their bodies can develop immunity before they die. If Alaska has a million residents you figure loss of 20,000 of them would be an acceptable price for your being able to go to the bar?

Part of the problem is we want political leaders to give us maximum freedom but then blame them for not protecting us when something happens. Politicians know that your peeve at restrictions on liberty is less likely to cost them votes than allowing the death of 20,000 residents to happen. They don't have much choice but to shut things down.

The panic buying and hoarding problem is driven by lack of clarity on how long they will be sequestered. Leaders need to paint a better picture on how they see this playing out, including resupply of store shelves so that people know they do not have to have a year's worth of TP.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 1153
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:23:18 AM   
Scott_USN

 

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Flu is horribly efficient and killing humans.

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Post #: 1154
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:24:16 AM   
Scott_USN

 

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From: Eagle River, Alaska USA
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The politicians are nothing but rats. Almost all of them. They have no one in their mind but themselves.

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Post #: 1155
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:36:16 AM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Scott_USN

The politicians are nothing but rats. Almost all of them. They have no one in their mind but themselves.

Not true. Most are decent men and women trying to do a good job for their constituents, but the system makes them spend too much time on CYA and arguing with the opposition instead of finding ways of collaboration. The arguing gets all the press. IMO, we need to get away from the party system so individual pols can talk to each other without a party overseer. It should be OK for members of one party to acknowledge a smart idea from the other party and congratulate them on it publicly. Instead we get attacks on whatever idea they come up with. I'd much rather vote for the guy/gal that is a cheerleader than a jeerleader.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:46:52 AM   
Scott_USN

 

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You may agree with that but they are rats in my opinion, my politics are neutral as in all of them are crooks. I am however a nationalist I guess right of center on my beliefs but this current situation reminds me how much I despise all of them. Spending money on nothing. Remind me of children in charge of the banking account.

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Post #: 1157
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 3:59:24 AM   
RangerJoe


Posts: 13450
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Scott_USN

You may agree with that but they are rats in my opinion, my politics are neutral as in all of them are crooks. I am however a nationalist I guess right of center on my beliefs but this current situation reminds me how much I despise all of them. Spending money on nothing. Remind me of children in charge of my banking account.


I fixed it for you.

_____________________________

Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

I'm not a complete idiot, some parts are missing!

“Illegitemus non carborundum est (“Don’t let the bastards grind you down”).”
― Julia Child


(in reply to Scott_USN)
Post #: 1158
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 4:02:07 AM   
Scott_USN

 

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Haha exactly Rangerjoe it is out of control in my opinion. Just mine.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 4:08:59 AM   
Scott_USN

 

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But anyway China and South Korea are already going back to work and moving forward.

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Post #: 1160
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 4:47:16 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Surprising the Switzerland, Norway and Iran have such high infection rates per million population.
Too much heavy breathing from climbing mountains or just heavy testing?


Iran was notoriously... I'll just say careless.

Switzerland and Norway - what's the population density where people actually live? I.e., the average population density that a person there experiences? If it's high, I'd expect higher rates of infection than I would in, say, a rural US state.


Unless a lot of Chinese people go to Switzerland and Norway for skiing, I would not expect many visitors in the winter that would drive the infection rate per million so much higher than other countries. Switzerland probably can be explained by proximity to northern Italy, but Norway? How many visitors from high-risk areas does Norway get in the winter? And don't the mountains limit travel somewhat so geographic isolation is more prevalent?
So I wonder whether the virus is spreading faster there or if they are just very vigilant in their testing so they count more cases earlier than other countries on the chart.


What I mean is - the population density of these countries is a function of their total area. But practically speaking, don't they have lots of relatively high density areas while the rest of the country is low density? Like New York State and NYC - the state has a population density of 416.4 people per square mile, but nearly half of that comes from NYC alone. I guess what I was trying to say was: what proportion of the population is urban? Diseases spread faster in urban areas because people are closer.

Switzerland's urban population % is 73.80% (the USA as a whole is around 84% as currently measured but the definition has changed over the decades, most recently in the 1990s). Norway's urban population % is >80%.

Further, the USA urban population % can't be compared very well to other countries' urban population % because the nature of our "urban" areas is so different: we have massive sprawl, like literally no other country in the world. Our urban areas (in the national aggregate) are simply less dense than other countries' urban areas.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Judging from what we're seeing elsewhere, especially Asia and the western Pacific, and now perhaps [but only perhaps!] in Italy, I don't expect to see numbers in the millions. As for numbers in the tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands, that's serious but not comparatively so. We routinely deal with far more for seasonal flu and more irregular epidemics and pandemics.



I'm sorry CR, but this is simply not true. It is the exact opposite: if 200K people die in the US from COVID-19, it will be more than 3x as many as the seasonal flu kills (if not more than 4x, if you break out the deaths from pneumonia from the flu + pneumonia line on the CDC website here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm).

Note that the only single viral or bacterial disease that makes the top causes of deaths is the flu, which is an endemic disease. We don't really suffer from lethal epidemics or pandemics.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Given the data we're seeing, the situation in Western Europe and in the USA should peak and then begin to taper off in March. Not in July or September.


It hasn't peaked in Italy yet (one day of fewer than expected cases can't be discounted as not noise). We're 9 days behind them in terms of the infection curve for number of cases. Other countries' (Germany, US, Switzerland) infection curves have, excepting only the UK, exactly followed the Italian curve. I see no reason not to expect the peak of the curve to occur until at least sometime in April, if not early May. In China, it took ~16 days since the number of confirmed cases reached 100 for the curve's downslope to begin and they instituted a much more draconian quarantine than we have (or will). So it will almost certainly take longer to reach the downslope here.

Optimism is great, and I'm generally an optimist, but everything we're seeing in terms of numbers doesn't look so rosy to the point of modifying previous expectations for more than a month's worth of serious impingement on day-to-day living. And the risk of worse is great enough that it seems more likely than not to be longer than that, as with these things you're entering the same realm as the Torino Scale: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torino_scale

< Message edited by Lokasenna -- 3/18/2020 4:50:13 AM >

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Post #: 1161
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 4:53:57 AM   
alanschu

 

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The Imperial College analysis does not appear to be optimistic. I'm not sure if they opt to look at worst case analysis as a specific point (to see how bad it can be). A lot of the big scary numbers (80% of population and 2M+ dead in the US) come from assumption of zero efforts to mitigate/suppress (which already isn't the case). But I'm still hoping it's a bit on the pessimistic/worst case scenario side :\

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf


EDIT: Came across this response which points out some issues.

https://necsi.edu/review-of-ferguson-et-al-impact-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions

< Message edited by alanschu -- 3/18/2020 6:02:54 AM >

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Post #: 1162
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 5:04:37 AM   
alanschu

 

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quote:

It hasn't peaked in Italy yet (one day of fewer than expected cases can't be discounted as not noise).


I'm always cautious of noise but I do think we're starting to see some flattening of both deaths and new cases for Italy at least. I'd still like a bit more data points, and assume that with some error bars the slope could still be upwards in rate of new incidents, but I'd say we're starting to see some of the effects of their shut down measures.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/








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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 11:27:39 AM   
Canoerebel


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Hey, Loka, you are repeatedly misquoting or misrepresenting what I've said.

I've said that seasonal flu might have mortality of 20k to 40k in the USA. I've never used a figure of 200k for corona virus in the USA, though I did refer to "tens or hundreds of thousands" when speaking in context of the world if China was stil increasing exponentially (I happened to be referring to Western Europe and the USA at the time, which might have confused you if you read that one post in isolation without dozens of others). I don't expect this to be near 40k in the USA, but if it happens to be, the mortality comparison is apt. I've made that point repeatedly here.

Yesterday and every other day I've said that we don't know if it has peaked in Italy yet (but as we noted yesterday, and as Alanschu's post just above furthers, there is the possibility of a trend that we're monitoring closely to see if it's an aberration or true).

None of my comments about a month (or less or more) pertained to the duration of impingement on life. The month figures have been used with respect to the duration of the worst of the virus - either the upswing of the bell-shaped curve or possibly even the most steep parts of each side - in places like China and South Korea, and the possibility the same might be true elsewhere (I think it will be, but not sure until we have more data from elsewhere). See my post 1115 yesterday that discusses this in detail. I've noted more than once that the effect on the economy and lifestyle will last considerably longer.

You referred to this as a "War and Peace" thread yesterday, presumably referring to its length. I take that to mean you haven't read through this but dip you toes in now and then. If so, you're missing a lot of context. It's fine to disagree, but please don't misrepresent.


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/18/2020 12:48:11 PM >

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Post #: 1164
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 11:46:42 AM   
Kull


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From: El Paso, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

We can get statistics per province from here (I posted charts earlier). And we do need that level of granularity, because it's quite possible that a leveling off in the north could be masked by growth elsewhere. There is just a hint of that in this table I put together in order to track that. Admittedly we're only looking at one day, but that's all I've got.



Table updated thru 3/17. You'll notice that we're seeing a lot more separation now between the numbers from the north and those from the rest of Italy. The north still has the preponderance of the increase in cases, but the percentage is dropping. Which I think is what we're hoping to see. (Note: The original post, including the province map of Italy, can be found here)





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< Message edited by Kull -- 3/18/2020 11:47:19 AM >


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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 12:40:09 PM   
Ian R

 

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REALITY CHECK PLEASE!

Here in oz we now have, apparently, about 300 sufferers. Out of 25m.

We are shutting down. Gold price is increasing.

I am really quite pissed off with some of the stupidity uttered here.

I thought you guys were better than that.



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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 12:41:02 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Deaths*



*"The COVID-19 illness causes mild or moderate symptoms in most people, but severe symptoms are more likely in the elderly or those with existing health problems. More than 80,000 people have recovered so far, mostly in China."

_____________________________








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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 12:45:51 PM   
Canoerebel


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I took the clickbait - headline something like "UK issues dire warning...."

The story quotes an expected death rate of 1 in 1,000.

What? All we've been hearing is 3% of thereabouts (or, if you're in the Main Matrix Page thread, 7.8%).

I assume there's a goof somewhere and that this news (or this estimate) cannot be accurate.

But if so, it would be great news.




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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/18/2020 12:49:22 PM >

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Post #: 1168
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 12:52:07 PM   
RangerJoe


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Coronavirus vaccine could be ready ‘before autumn’, says EU Commission Chief

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/17/coronavirus-vaccine-ready-autumn-says-european-commission-chief-12414537/

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Seek peace but keep your gun handy.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1169
RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/18/2020 12:52:14 PM   
MakeeLearn


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New Orleans Mayor Issues Coronavirus Order Allowing Ban on Sale, Transportation of Firearms
16 Mar 2020



https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/03/16/new-orleans-mayor-issues-coronavirus-order-allowing-ban-on-sale-transportation-of-firearms/

"New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell (D) signed a Coronavirus emergency order last week allowing her to ban the sale and transportation of firearms.

She signed a follow-up proclamation on March 16, 2020, further emphasizing her emergency powers to “suspend or limit the sale, dispensing, or transportation, of alcoholic beverages.”"

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
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