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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/3/2020 3:03:00 PM

Scott_USN

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

I got a business trip to Europe cancelled

I think this is overblown by panic-mongers

Yeah common sense seems to have left the subject for the media.

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Post #: 181

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/3/2020 4:11:51 PM

Canoerebel

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An informed, reliable acquaintance gave me a lot more information yesterday.

I understood him to say that the graph of the outbreak in China (as shown below, updated today) is encouraging if (big IF) the diagnostics and reporting from China are accurate. It shows a non-exponential growth rate, suggesting the outbreak has leveled out. However, he has serious misgivings about the reliability of the Chinese data.

In the rest of the world, he thinks the outbreak may be in the early stages of the exponential growth cycle; that it has "escaped" containment and will spread rapidly.

There are also indications that actual mortality might be somewhere around 0.2%, less than one-tenth the figure we're seeing reported to this point. At 0.2% it would be similar to a nasty flu.

The Johns Hopkins charts continue to show modest (to me: linear) growth. Perhaps, however, we are in that two week incubation period, where the reports from all areas will begin exponential growth soon.

Here's hoping that Chinese diagnostics and reporting are "good"!

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Post #: 182

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/3/2020 4:20:53 PM

BBfanboy

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That 2 week incubation period is itself just a guess. With a virus that can (reportedly) survive on a metal railing for 21 days, it will take a lot longer for us to know when the community is clear of the problem. But if everyone touching contaminated railings washes their hands before touching their face or food, the virus on the railing is defeated.

That reminds me of a news clip on BBC this morning that showed Italian efforts at containment. Some men in overalls with masks and rubber gloves and pails in one hand and a cloth in the other got on a commuter train after the passengers got off. They proceeded to quickly wipe down the handhold surfaces like poles and the loop handgrips at the top side of the aisle seats. Trouble is, they quickly wiped the outside of the loops but did not do much with the inside of the loop, where the fingers wrap around ...

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Post #: 183

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/3/2020 4:30:18 PM

Footslogger

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Some have been talking about the under reporting "numbers."

This posting was the best I could find about this subject.

Remember take everything with a grain of salt.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7v0L7GFxNKw

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Post #: 184

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/3/2020 6:15:07 PM

rustysi

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quote:

Wine has anti-viral, anti-bacterial, and anti-fungal properties.

I knew I increased my home stock for a reason.

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Post #: 185

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/3/2020 6:18:15 PM

rustysi

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quote:

Remember take everything with a grain of salt.

But my doctor told me to cut my salt intake.

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Post #: 186

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/3/2020 6:47:05 PM

Scott_USN

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Seems to be waning a bit especially in China, assuming their numbers are correct a already stated.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/3/2020 7:54:45 PM

RangerJoe

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Once you isolate people that have it, they are unlikely to spread it.

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Post #: 188

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/3/2020 11:00:09 PM

spence

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The government really knows how to isolate people in China too.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/3/2020 11:58:35 PM

JohnDillworth

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The statistics are not giving a good picture of what may be going on. So the U.S. does not look so bad with 100 cases. The problem is is that only 500 people in the U.S. have been tested! 500! So, 20% of all people tested have test positive. I suspect there is a lot more than 100 cases. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-really-have-coronavirus/607348/

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Post #: 190

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 12:04:38 AM

RangerJoe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

The statistics are not giving a good picture of what may be going on. So the U.S. does not look so bad with 100 cases. The problem is is that only 500 people in the U.S. have been tested! 500! So, 20% of all people tested have test positive. I suspect there is a lot more than 100 cases. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-really-have-coronavirus/607348/

But who needs to be tested? As far as I know, I've had no contact with anyone who has or had it. I have not traveled. That is the problem, it takes a lot of money to test and without a good reason to do so it will not be done.

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Post #: 191

RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 12:06:01 AM

MakeeLearn

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Coronavirus closures reveal vast scale of China�s secretive wildlife farm industry

https://focusingonwildlife.com/news/coronavirus-closures-reveal-vast-scale-of-chinas-secretive-wildlife-farm-industry/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter-post-title_1120

"Nearly 20,000 wildlife farms raising species including peacocks, civet cats, porcupines, ostriches, wild geese and boar have been shut down across China in the wake of the coronavirus, in a move that has exposed the hitherto unknown size of the industry."

Peacock breeders use plastic bags to wrap up the birds in transit to stop their feathers falling off.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 2:26:22 AM

PaxMondo

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

The statistics are not giving a good picture of what may be going on. So the U.S. does not look so bad with 100 cases. The problem is is that only 500 people in the U.S. have been tested! 500! So, 20% of all people tested have test positive. I suspect there is a lot more than 100 cases. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-really-have-coronavirus/607348/

But who needs to be tested? As far as I know, I've had no contact with anyone who has or had it. I have not traveled. That is the problem, it takes a lot of money to test and without a good reason to do so it will not be done.

As I mentioned a couple of pages back; the Washington outbreak tells you that the virus is already in the general population. We also know that many (but % not yet quantified) people will contract it and be asymptomatic (no symptoms). This is good for that person, bad for the rest of us as it means carriers with no outward appearance of being so. This means all the travel screening is already pretty much moot and for show.

Anyway, by the end of March we will know how virulent this one is. Until then, all you can do is watch your personal hygiene more than usual and if you get flu like symptoms be very conservative in your treatment; meaning SEE your DOCTOR first, then use the normal OTC meds.

And yes, every hospital ED, first responder agency, and most GP offices are getting spooled up. Better safe than sorry on this one �

I should close with this: so much is still unknown about this little critter. It may not like dry, may not like cold, may � we don't know. So the outbreak could be severely constrained by climate/weather/whatever. But with the virus in the general population now it really means, relax. Unless you move into your nuke bunker you either already have or will in the next week come into contact with it. Just the way these things work. And just like the flu, coming into contact in no way guarantees you get it. Again, we don't know the contagion mechanism or % yet so � relax and spin a few more turns.

< Message edited by PaxMondo -- 3/4/2020 2:30:41 AM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 2:41:06 AM

RangerJoe

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Relax with some antiviral medication . . .

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 8:37:05 AM

JohnDillworth

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quote:

But who needs to be tested? As far as I know, I've had no contact with anyone who has or had it. I have not traveled. That is the problem, it takes a lot of money to test and without a good reason to do so it will not be done.

Well, we have a guy in NYC who has it. Traveled to Israel, Florida, went to Temple 3 times, traveled by commuter rail to mid-town Manhattan via Grand Central Terminal a few times. They just quarantined hundreds of people. Who needs to be tested? His wife, his co-workers, anyone he traveled on a plane with, a train with, he went to Temple with? Lots of those people need to be tested. And when some come back positive, and they likely will, their contacts may need to be tested. 500 tests in the whole country seems to me we are either slow to react, way behind, ignorant, unprepared or whistling in the wind....or all of the above.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 9:55:42 AM

Sardaukar

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I was detained for 3 days for suspected COV-19...our legistlation is bit rude when it comes to that

< Message edited by Sardaukar -- 3/4/2020 9:56:03 AM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 10:10:47 AM

PaxMondo

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

quote:

But who needs to be tested? As far as I know, I've had no contact with anyone who has or had it. I have not traveled. That is the problem, it takes a lot of money to test and without a good reason to do so it will not be done.

Well, we have a guy in NYC who has it. Traveled to Israel, Florida, went to Temple 3 times, traveled by commuter rail to mid-town Manhattan via Grand Central Terminal a few times. They just quarantined hundreds of people. Who needs to be tested? His wife, his co-workers, anyone he traveled on a plane with, a train with, he went to Temple with? Lots of those people need to be tested. And when some come back positive, and they likely will, their contacts may need to be tested. 500 tests in the whole country seems to me we are either slow to react, way behind, ignorant, unprepared or whistling in the wind....or all of the above.

No, I think we are simply past that stage. When a virus is in the general population, testing is kinda moot except for people are really ill to determine what (which virus/secondary infection) they have.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 10:44:16 AM

JohnDillworth

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So without testing how do we determine who to quarantine or are we past that stage too? Not testing seems to be choosing ignorance. I�d prefer not to stick my head in the sand and hope for the best. Besides, Pence said that every American can be tested. One wonders when.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 10:54:50 AM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

The statistics are not giving a good picture of what may be going on. So the U.S. does not look so bad with 100 cases. The problem is is that only 500 people in the U.S. have been tested! 500! So, 20% of all people tested have test positive. I suspect there is a lot more than 100 cases. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-really-have-coronavirus/607348/

But who needs to be tested? As far as I know, I've had no contact with anyone who has or had it. I have not traveled. That is the problem, it takes a lot of money to test and without a good reason to do so it will not be done.

One big difference between the US and Europe (and many other places in the world) is the profit oriented healthcare industry in the States.

If containment is improved by testing and self-or-imposed quarantines of known cases, then a profit oriented medical system ends up being very ineffective. It will end up costing more in the long run of course not to splash out on the early stage efforts to test and contain (through increased hospital stays, more missed work time and general panic if numbers go way up, etc).

The large segment of the populace who don't have health insurance will also end up spreading the disease through their reluctance or inability to go in to a doctor and incur fees to be tested. It will also likely hit the poor and uninsured harder due to a higher prevalence of pre-existing conditions.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 12:12:50 PM

Kursk1943

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar

I was detained for 3 days for suspected COV-19...our legistlation is bit rude when it comes to that

Which one? Finland or THe Holy Land?

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 12:31:28 PM

GetAssista

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar
I was detained for 3 days for suspected COV-19...our legistlation is bit rude when it comes to that

Were you tested, or just detained?
3 day detention is far too short for the incubation period of COV-19

I have friends who maintain a voluntary stay-at-home quarantine after a recent trip to northern Italy. Apparently Netherlands Google is more than ok with that.

< Message edited by GetAssista -- 3/4/2020 12:33:00 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 12:43:27 PM

Canoerebel

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3/4/20

Number of new cases worldwide up about 2,500 yesterday, which was the same on March 1.

Number of cases in China up less than 200 yesterday, and basically level there for the past several weeks. The chart at lower right, showing total cases in Mainland China, leveled off and has remained level. (It can't ever "drop," because it shows total cases reported.

In the USA yesterday, the total rose from about 91 to about 123. That's 33%, so enough to get attention. It'll be important to see the new cases reported today.

But, overall, if China is reporting true, then the virus has shot its wad there.

And, if the reports are true, the virus doesn't seem to be mushrooming in the west. It's increasing, and its spreading, so it's out there. But its not yet acting like its rampaging through the population unchecked.

Or am I misreading? Or is it too early to know for certain?

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 1:15:51 PM

MakeeLearn

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Face masks, hand sanitizer, toilet paper: Coronavirus panic shopping hits American stores

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/face-masks-hand-sanitizer-toilet-paper-coronavirus-panic-shopping-hits-american-stores/ar-BB10GAYN?li=BBnb7Kz

"Americans across the country are stocking up on hand sanitizer, cleaning wipes, toilet paper and other products to prepare for the spread of Coronavirus."

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< Message edited by MakeeLearn -- 3/4/2020 1:16:30 PM >

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 1:26:55 PM

MakeeLearn

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Why The Death Rate From Coronavirus Is Plunging In China

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/03/809904660/why-the-death-rate-from-coronavirus-is-plunging-in-china

"According to the China CDC study, among patients whose symptoms started between Jan. 1 and Jan. 10 the death rate was 15.6 percent. But it was just 0.8 percent among those who didn't get sick until Feb. 1 to Feb. 11.

That pattern of progressively dropping death rates is one we're likely to see in other countries.

In other words, there's a good chance the fatality rate in nations with good health systems will end up being a lot lower than what was first seen in China.

Still, it's worth noting that even after China got the death rate down to 0.7 percent, or even 0.4 percent, that's still about four to seven times greater than the death rate for seasonal flu. (The rate for the flu is about 0.1 percent � or 1 in 1,000 patients.)"

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 1:32:11 PM

GetAssista

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn
That pattern of progressively dropping death rates is one we're likely to see in other countries.

In other words, there's a good chance the fatality rate in nations with good health systems will end up being a lot lower than what was first seen in China.

This is exactly why you would want to follow the prevention measures list. The aim is not to avoid being infected, this is pretty hard given the nature of the decease. The aim is to be among the later infected people, so you would come for treatment when there is experience and facilities already in place.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 1:39:11 PM

MakeeLearn

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US fears drug shortages after India restricts exports due to coronavirus disruption

https://theprint.in/world/us-fears-drug-shortages-after-india-restricts-exports-due-to-coronavirus-disruption/375080/

"�India has restricted the export of 26 active pharmaceutical ingredients for export, which represents about 10% of their export capacity,� U.S. Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Stephen Hahn told Congress at a hearing Tuesday in Washington."

"Though India is the source of about 20% of the world�s generic-drug supply, the country is dependent on China for about 66% of the chemical components needed to make them. A recent analysis by the Indian government found that as many as 450 drug ingredients could be affected by China�s efforts to contain the Coronavirus, which include a complete lockdown of Hubei province, a center of the country�s drug industry."

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 1:51:30 PM

RangerJoe

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It sounds like a new source or sources of those drug precursors need to be found or built . . .

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 1:57:12 PM

Kull

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kursk1943

I'm a bit sceptical about the validity of theses numbers, because people on such ships really don't represent the average. I once was on such a cruise ship with my mother and I was one of the youngest there being 50... I think the infection rate and the mortality rate is a lot higher with very old people.
In the news yesterday our secretary of health stated that they found out that a lot of people never know they have the virus because they don't develop any symptoms at all. Therefore the mortality rate is suspected to be much lower if you included all these cases, too. The actual mortality rate is calculated in relation to people showing symptoms.

The point was to look at a controlled environment where you have:
- a known starting point
- a known period in which it was able to spread unhindered
- tests performed on 100% of the "subjects of the experiment" (so we aren't guessing as to how many "might have it")

Of the entire analysis, the most interesting part (to me) was the low infection rate (19%), despite the fertile breeding ground. Especially given all the fear-mongering about how this thing spreads so easily.

Also, you contradicted yourself by saying the infection rate in my analysis was too low since it would be "a lot higher with very old people" and then telling us that your anecdotal experience shows that cruise ships populations are composed of older people.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 2:45:25 PM

Chickenboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

"According to the China CDC study, among patients whose symptoms started between Jan. 1 and Jan. 10 the death rate was 15.6 percent. But it was just 0.8 percent among those who didn't get sick until Feb. 1 to Feb. 11.

That pattern of progressively dropping death rates is one we're likely to see in other countries.

The CDC is focusing on the CFR from Korea as a better starting point for understanding the disease process than assuming the Chinese numbers' verity. As such, the numbers I heard discussed yesterday were 0.2-0.4%, approximately 1/10th the ballyhooed 2-4% CFR from the early Chinese numbers. This needs to be emphasized: breathless knee-jerk assumptions about what the CFR is / will be for everyone ex-China were significantly inflated. If media is responsible, they need to dial down their 'we're all gonna die!" context for responsible discussion of this situation.

That being said, a 0.2% CFR would be approximately twice as high as a bad influenza year. So that's the context that I'm working from-this will be a really bad 'flu' year (CFR-wise) level of mortality globally. But it's in line with many other communicable diseases that have made a comeback on the world stage from time to time.

I'm also very interested to read about the viral mutation seen in the Chinese data. Again, not surprising-coronaviruses will be coronaviruses. But a less virulent human-adapted strain displacing the 'wild-type' COVID-19 would actually be good news from the disease impact perspective. This is what we see with coronaviruses in animal populations: initial exposure to big, bad nasty novel viruses will, in time, be displaced by either vaccine strains or less virulent host-adapted strains.

Of course, this opens up a can of worms on the diagnostic and prevention front.

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RE: OT: Corona virus - 3/4/2020 2:53:14 PM

Chickenboy

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

And, if the reports are true, the virus doesn't seem to be mushrooming in the west. It's increasing, and its spreading, so it's out there. But its not yet acting like its rampaging through the population unchecked.

In general, I agree with this conclusion. Anything that can be implemented to reduce the frequency/ ease of spread with these novel viruses is a good thing. We've seen all manner of travel bans, bans on large congregations, reminders of the importance of personal hygeine, individual quarantines and trace-back contacts, etc. implemented on the world stage with this in mind. One can see a reduction in the rate of spread ("R0") directly correlating to fewer novel cases-or at least decreased velocity of new cases over time.

Domestically, I don't think there's an American that hasn't heard that this thing is running around globally. That's good! Awareness may actually filter through to change human behavior. Several studies that I've done regarding avian influenza control programs come back to this age-old saw: the most difficult thing to do is to change human behavior. It's harder than making vaccines. Harder than making or testing treatments. Harder than coming up with money to thrown at the problem. If you can change human behavior, you can impact the trajectory of these diseases.

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