Slitherine

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The whole seasonality thing seems to be a red herring

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Spain is really strange - suddenly, zero mortality for weeks. I don't know what's going on there but the numbers seem wonky until there's a good explanation. How did Spain go from epidemic to sustained "zilch" when every other country has had a long, stubborn residual tail? Doesn't make sense, but I haven't delved into it nor have I seen explanations (I've been focused mainly on my state and the US for the past few weeks).

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ORIGINAL: Admiral DadMan

Be careful, numbers can say almost anything you want them to.

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ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

4% of the population and 25% of the death.

Other countries were not in the danger zone of the virus and the season. New Zealand and Australia were able to handle it pretty good. Some countries can not be counted on to provide accurate information such as China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia immediately come to mind. Different immunizations are also mitigating factors.

About the only thing that should be considered criminal was requiring the nursing homes and assisted living facilities to take the Covid-19 patients since they did not have the facilities nor equipment plus their staff does not have the training.

The whole seasonality thing seems to be a red herring - a hope that did not materialize. Brazil is on the equator and always hot - and it is having a devastating outbreak right now (with the sun practically overhead, just short of the summer solstice). Same with the Southern USA -Arizona, Oklahoma, and the Carolinas are on the list of major outbreaks. No help from the heat there.

Meanwhile, the virus keeps mutating and hopefully will become a mild strain that does not kill its hosts ... but I am not counting on it.

How many of those people who catch the virus in those hot climates are in air conditioned areas with little outside air exchange? That needs to be determined.

I just saw that there is a new strain in Chicago.

Well in Brazil's largest city, Sao Paulo, most of the victims are from the slums where they have no electricity. They have the same difficulties with nourishment, lack of clean water, lack of information and lack of access to health care as poor people around the world - so they are hit the hardest.

But the point is, air conditioners do not appear to affect the spread of the virus there. Have you heard of any studies that point to them? If so, that is something we should know.

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ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

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The Baltimore BB team is a mess....not sure how long it will take to come back.

Not until the ownership changes. At this point it is a generational thing, with the elderly majority owner having handed the team over to his sons. It seems that they would rather move the team elsewhere [rumors] than sell it. The shame is that it is local ownership. Not a good reflection on an already cloudy Baltimore.

I'm sure that most of the players would like to play, it is the very strong Players Union that mucks everything up. For example, Mike Mussina took a lower contract in his first renewal in order to stay in Baltimore [the 'hometown discount' as they say]. He was harshly criticized for that by the Players Union, and when he next came up for a contract he moved on to the higher offer at New York [the Evil Empire!lol]. Currently, the Players Union wants all players to hold their ground for full pay. It's some dumbass sh1t.

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ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
But I think that some people are finally get the message "When you are sick, stay home!" How many people would say "I am a good worker, I go to work even when I have a cold or the flu" when they are actually spreading it and should stay home and not share it.

But do you think that US citizens are inclined to go along with rules as long as they aren't inconvenienced? I mean, everybody stayed at home for a couple weeks then some got tired of it and went outside and started 'protesting'. A lot of other countries wouldn't have such a thing, certainly not Russia or China or N. Korea.

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ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It's not a competition, but JohnD is just plain wrong. Reliability about numbers from some countries is highly suspects and for most countries marginally uncertain. But where we have people counting under lots of scrutiny (the US, Canada, Oz, Korea, Japan, Europe, etc.) the US is doing fairly well, from a per capita standpoint. If the US should be ashamed, then what does that say about countries that have suffered far greater losses, to this point? We're doing okay under novel circumstances, as are most countries - at least, doing the best we know how to do. Folks have tried it lots of different ways with no clear-cut winner. Since indefinite lockdowns aren't an option, now nearly all countries are trying phased re-opening. There's no shame for the US or any other country, possibly excepting China if the country actually did suppress info that had an affect on transmittal.

so we don't have 4% of the Worlds population and 25% of the death? I'm using Johns Hopkins numbers, which most folks round here found a fairly good barometer. OK, do you have a better source? Johns Hopkins has always been the gold standard for such things and made their bones during the Spanish Flu epidemic but if you have a more credible and reliable source I'm all ears. Are they perfect? no, are hey better than everybody else? Probably. Shall we just compare to Western Europe. That seems reasonable. Look where Germany, France, Italy , Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands and Switzerland to name a few are compared to where they were 6 weeks ago. Now Look at the United States? Who flattened the curve more? What did they do different? They waited just a bit longer to open their economies. Now they are in much better shape than us. Again I ask......What is the plan to get rid of this thing in the United States? What are the better data sources? Are we not 4% off the Worlds population? Did we not suffer a disproportion amount of death compared to other western democracies?

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ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653
I'm sure that most of the players would like to play, it is the very strong Players Union that mucks everything up.

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
My father worked someplace where there was a union. The work rules called for an electrician to change a light bulb but he could not bring in a ladder and set it up, that was someone else's job. With that and the business regulations, then some people wonder why companies move overseas.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I took a quick look at that lawsuit. Your brief post description might (unintentionally) lead readers to believe the allegations involve statewide (or widespread) abuse, calling into question the reliability of information coming from the state.

The allegation involves a small, private business (single story, not a general hospital) in Athens. The allegation is that the private employer gave instructions to create false negative test results to counter previous positives. The number of alleged falsifications is small, involving five patients.

IE, this allegation is limited in scope and of no statistical significance (though a serious matter to those involved, if true).

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I took a quick look at that lawsuit. Your brief post description might (unintentionally) lead readers to believe the allegations involve statewide (or widespread) abuse, calling into question the reliability of information coming from the state.

The allegation involves a small, private business (single story, not a general hospital) in Athens. The allegation is that the private employer gave instructions to create false negative test results to counter previous positives. The number of alleged falsifications is small, involving five patients.

IE, this allegation is limited in scope and of no statistical significance (though a serious matter to those involved, if true).

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ORIGINAL: Panjack

For a thread that is marked "the No Politics Version," the below seem a bit inappropriate. I'm quite willing to engage with people about the functioning and role of unions...and, indeed, would enjoy doing a bit of education on unions...but this is the "No Politics Version."

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ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653
I'm sure that most of the players would like to play, it is the very strong Players Union that mucks everything up.

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
My father worked someplace where there was a union. The work rules called for an electrician to change a light bulb but he could not bring in a ladder and set it up, that was someone else's job. With that and the business regulations, then some people wonder why companies move overseas.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I doubt anyone thinks the numbers anywhere are perfect (I said as much, above). In some places, they are more suspect than others. But the instance you cited is statistically meaningless. It did nothing except suggest to a casual reader that Georgia's numbers are suspect, which isn't true (at least, not based on that instance).

It'll be hard for any widespread fudging of numbers in places where there is scrutiny. Not only would the perpetrators get caught, they'd be crucified in print. Can you imagine what would happen to a governor or to a state health director that said, "Hey, let's play with numbers to make Covid look worse/better than it actually is."? In every case, somebody would blow the whistle. Who would take that chance? It's going to happen here and there, but most instances of bad faith trickery are going to be isolated/limited in scope.

Hey, wherever there are hotspot, those jurisdictions are reacting. Where there aren't, things are proceeding per easing. That's the only way it can work, right?

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
The fudging of numbers in Minnesota was referenced by a state legislator (not being political here) who is also a practicing medical doctor. He said that the pressure was on to call every medical case a Covid-19 case because of the increase in payments from the governments and it was tripled if the patient was put on a ventilator.

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In an interview with FactCheck.org, however, Jensen said he did not think that hospitals were intentionally misclassifying cases for financial reasons.

But that’s how his comments have been widely interpreted and paraded on social media.

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing

...Also worth noting post #242 (concerning removals of statues of Confederate generals) has gone unremarked.

A rule for thee, but not for me