Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zovs

So since we got all the none-sense out of the way what does that leave us for a Med First Strategy?

We know that Hitler would not let go of Russia in 1941 right? We also know that Hitler was not interested really in invading England, personally, and when Goering 'let him down and lost prestige' with Hitler by loosing the Battle of Britain. And we know that Hitler would not invade Spain. So what or where does that leave this question?

The only possibility that I can see is that as Hitler builds up for Russia in 1941, puts as much pressure as he can on Franco (and we know that fails anyway), is faced with the Italian debacles in Greece and NA and then diverts some of his resources away from Barbarossa, or puts off Barbarossa till 1942, maybe putting a Panzer Corps and an Infantry Corps into the Med. I don't know if that would be enough, nor if they could ship that much to NA, they would still have to divert some air assets to both the Med and to France, since I am sure the British would not be sitting on their buttocks while Hitler was doing this. The CW would send as much as they could around the horn to NA. Meanwhile this would free up Russia to put pressure on either Rumanian, Hungary and or Finland.

Again, I go back to the gaming aspect. I have sort of done this in CWIE2. But I did not postpone Barbarossa, I did or have siphoned off several Mech and Inf units for the Med, but it's hard to take out the CW completely in NA, it's possible but your supply line is stretch so thin, the only thing going for you in that game is the weather down there lets you fight during the winter of 40 till spring of 41.

Wish I had a partner to play CWIE2 again with so we could explore this. Doing it solo leaves out the element of surprise.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Not to mention that the different rail lines were probably different gauges. Plus the rail likes in France to Spain were distinct and different gauges.

warspite1

The different gauges between France and Spain has been mentioned. Although they mention four separate companies owning the 'network' there is no mention at all that the gauges were different within Spain. I'm sure that would have been raised - believe me, this is a seriously impressive book.

quote:

Iberian gauge (Spanish: ancho ibérico, trocha ibérica, Portuguese: bitola ibérica) is a track gauge of 1,668 mm (5 ft 5 21⁄32 in), most extensively used by the railways of Spain and Portugal. This is the second-widest gauge in regular use anywhere in the world. The Indian gauge, 5 ft 6 in (1,676 mm), is 8 mm (5⁄16 in) wider.

As finally established in 1955,[1] the Iberian gauge is a compromise between the similar, but slightly different, gauges adopted as respective national standards in Spain and Portugal in the mid-19th century. The main railway networks of Spain were initially constructed to a 1,672 mm (5 ft 5 13⁄16 in) gauge of six Castilian feet. Those of Portugal were instead built to a 1,435 mm (4 ft 8 1⁄2 in) and later railways to a 1,664 mm (5 ft 5 1⁄2 in) gauge of five Portuguese feet – close enough to allow interoperability with Spanish railways.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

You refuse to read what I write or you do read it and simply ignore it. Shame on you.

No. You just don't like my responses.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Warspite1, maybe the problem with Curtis Lemay's lack of research is that he is not allowed to access it? Maybe he hasn't earned that privilege? I know that my brother did play a game by mail against a prison inmate - he did not understand the address, so he found out that CB 2 meant Cell Block 2!

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Warspite1, maybe the problem with Curtis Lemay's lack of research is that he is not allowed to access it? Maybe he hasn't earned that privilege? I know that my brother did play a game by mail against a prison inmate - he did not understand the address, so he found out that CB 2 meant Cell Block 2!

warspite1

Ugh?

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

Personally.in order to explore such an interesting scenario, I was happy to suspend disbelief and go with an attack on Spain and a postponement of Barbarossa. The only thing I thought necessary was to add as much realism into the scenario in terms of timescales and actions taken by the various parties. Unfortunately we got presented with a scenario that can at best be described as fantasy as sensible time frames were thrown out the window and historical characters all forgot themselves, changed personality and changed nationalty to German.

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ORIGINAL: Zovs

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

Personally.in order to explore such an interesting scenario, I was happy to suspend disbelief and go with an attack on Spain and a postponement of Barbarossa. The only thing I thought necessary was to add as much realism into the scenario in terms of timescales and actions taken by the various parties. Unfortunately we got presented with a scenario that can at best be described as fantasy as sensible time frames were thrown out the window and historical characters all forgot themselves, changed personality and changed nationalty to German.

Okay if we suspend disbelief and the OKW and Hitler agreed to postpone Barbarossa, then would not Sealion be an option? Maybe not because it's not part of the Med.? I am still struggling to come to grips with a German invasion of Spain. My understanding is that Franco was close to being an Axis Allied partner. But going with this, I suppose if the Germans and Hitler had lost patience with Franco and had decided to invade Spain.

What we do know is that Franco refused the pressure. Logically, England would seemed to be the next target and not Spain. But I am still having trouble suspending my disbelief that Hitler would think logically or sanely and invade Spain or England.

So I am stumped here...

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

I was talking about the map you originally showed. But the Wiki map serves just as well. It doesn't matter what is on that map. The Germans didn't travel to the Greco-Albanian border according to what you presented. But I am not going to waste any more time on this.

So I provide a military study that sets out the problems for the Greeks facing the Italians (if Salonika is taken). This is a study written by professionals in the US military.

You provide a game map and a map from Wiki that you say PROVES that Athens was a viable supply point for those Greek troops in the northeast.

I have no idea where you are coming from and I have nothing more to add on this, other than you've done yourself no favours whatsoever.

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ORIGINAL: Zovs

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

There would still be far more than an army group staring at them across the Channel.

This is totally false. The Germans barely had enough transports for two divisions. Your Army Group Fantasy moving across the channel is absurd on so many levels.

These kinds of posts from you Bob (aka Curtis) makes you look like a fool and that you have absolutely no idea of what you are talking about. Then you have other posts that are twisting what others write and putting words that they did not say into their mouths, those kind of posts give you even less credit.

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ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

If the Germans attacked Spain, there would be a very small frontage. Maqquis would be attacking their supply lines, including those in France.

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Why would Italy even garrison Spain? They would get nothing from that! No glory, only dead bodies.

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The Germans attacked along the river valleys because that is where the good roads are. The good roads are not going over Hills then through the Dales. Good roads are on the flat lands. The hills are better defensive terrain, often with trees, that is not good for tanks. Anti-tank guns are not needed against tanks, even turpentine will work.

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

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ORIGINAL: Zovs

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

BTW: A question for Curtis Lemay and Zovs. In the SPI game, was there any special rules/requirements around the rail bridge at Irun?

Could you remind me where/what country Irun is in?

warspite1

Irun is in Spain. The reason I mentioned it is that Curtis Lemay believes that because his scenario has been "war gamed" it proves it would have worked.

Clearly to make a case like that, any game would need to be incredibly detailed. Which is why I assumed there must have been mention of Irun in the game. Given the lack of rail lines, the rail bridge at Irun was of massive importance to the Germans. Firstly, the Germans were very concerned about it as they weren't sure it was going to hold up due to the state of repair. But secondly, they were so worried about it being bombed that they provided numerous AA batteries and coastal batteries (they feared naval bombardment as the line is on the coast) to help with its defence.

Obviously Curtis Lemay is making the point that this is a very realistic game and so I am assuming the British player can bomb the line and the Royal Navy can shell the line? I am assuming the Germans need to keep 3 batteries of AA and an engineer unit at the bridge at all times? Presumably the attack on Spain can't start until the coastal batteries are in place?

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Yes, its obvious to anyone that one would need both sides of the Straits to truly be able to traverse from the Med to the Atlantic without fear of mines, coastal batteries, aircraft etc. That is why - despite the unsubstantiated verbiage that Curtis Lemay comes out with, Hitler was going to order an armoured and motorised division into Spanish Morocco - and why there would always need to be a German garrison of some description there.

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

I was talking about the map you originally showed. But the Wiki map serves just as well. It doesn't matter what is on that map. The Germans didn't travel to the Greco-Albanian border according to what you presented. But I am not going to waste any more time on this.

So I provide a military study that sets out the problems for the Greeks facing the Italians (if Salonika is taken). This is a study written by professionals in the US military.

You provide a game map and a map from Wiki that you say PROVES that Athens was a viable supply point for those Greek troops in the northeast.

I have no idea where you are coming from and I have nothing more to add on this, other than you've done yourself no favours whatsoever.

The Wiki map clearly showed the Germans moving across the spine of the Greek mountains. That means the Greek supply columns could have done so as well.

Here's another map from another source showing a little more detail. Clearly, the Italians dealt with the Greeks in the area your talking about. So the Germans had no need to go there.

Also, note the text at the top and how it describes the German armor getting into the rear of the British lines via "impassible" terrain!

The arrows on maps such as this should not be read as troops moving in single file. They are symbolic of the movement of fronts. All of Greece would have been fought over, including the hills.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The whole point of taking Gibraltar was for Italy's benefit. Closing the eastern med is definitely in her interests.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The Italians will be needed to help garrison Spain. Also, they need to be warned that a risky strike at the Pyramids from Libya is unnecessary.

warspite1

And there you have it. Your debating style in a nutshell. You've been told, at great length, why it is highly unlikely Mussolini would agree to any such thing. You've been provided with quotes by the key players and historical examples.

Your response?

Curtis Lemay: I am ignoring you, I am going to repeat the same thing I've been churning out for pages - and I'm not going to provide a scrap of evidence in support of my position or even give you the courtesy of why I believe your evidence is wrong. But then I don't have to, I'm Curtis Lemay and I'm always right.

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

They rested and refitted after the Fall of France because they could - no other reason. If France had lasted longer, they would have carried on as long as it took. Take Barbarossa: continuous combat from late June to the end of October, with perhaps four weeks stopped. Take the Allies in France in 1944: From early June to the end of September before any pause. There is no requirement to rest entire divisions because tanks need repair. You just pull individual tanks out of the line, service them, and send them on to catch up once they're back in condition.

warspite1

We've covered this. No one is denying that sometimes (in fact very often) units are kept in the field too long out of necessity - because circumstances dictate. That doesn't make it right and not something an army chooses to do for obvious reasons, and no one chooses to start a whole new campaign with understrength, tired units.....

Circumstances will dictate for Spain too. And, as I've said before, there will be a standard distribution of fatigue in the German units. Those that are freshest can be used in Spain. Those that have seen the heaviest action will form the deception on the Channel.

warspite1

Not at all. They will all be fresh. The time it will take to deal with the political/diplomatic aspects, the training of the Kuebler's XLIX Corps and the intelligence work on the Rock - this operation won't be ready until late 1940 at the earliest.

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

Do you know how long the Germans planned for the destruction of Gibraltar? Two weeks? Three weeks? How long were the Germans going to hang around without any need to rush?

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

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ORIGINAL: Zovs

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

BTW: A question for Curtis Lemay and Zovs. In the SPI game, was there any special rules/requirements around the rail bridge at Irun?

Could you remind me where/what country Irun is in?

warspite1

Irun is in Spain. The reason I mentioned it is that Curtis Lemay believes that because his scenario has been "war gamed" it proves it would have worked.

Clearly to make a case like that, any game would need to be incredibly detailed. Which is why I assumed there must have been mention of Irun in the game. Given the lack of rail lines, the rail bridge at Irun was of massive importance to the Germans. Firstly, the Germans were very concerned about it as they weren't sure it was going to hold up due to the state of repair. But secondly, they were so worried about it being bombed that they provided numerous AA batteries and coastal batteries (they feared naval bombardment as the line is on the coast) to help with its defence.

Obviously Curtis Lemay is making the point that this is a very realistic game and so I am assuming the British player can bomb the line and the Royal Navy can shell the line? I am assuming the Germans need to keep 3 batteries of AA and an engineer unit at the bridge at all times? Presumably the attack on Spain can't start until the coastal batteries are in place?

Like in any campaign, bridges and rail lines will have to be repaired. Note that where rail bridges are down, truck routes can bypass them temporarily. Supplies come off before the bridge, trucked to the other side, and go back on after it. It changes how long it takes to get the supplies there, but not the amount of supplies that are ultimately delivered.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Yes, its obvious to anyone that one would need both sides of the Straits to truly be able to traverse from the Med to the Atlantic without fear of mines, coastal batteries, aircraft etc. That is why - despite the unsubstantiated verbiage that Curtis Lemay comes out with, Hitler was going to order an armoured and motorised division into Spanish Morocco - and why there would always need to be a German garrison of some description there.

I still see a Vichy Spain as more probable than Vichy France was. If that's the case, the British would have to violate Spain to take that or the Canarys.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

From the Burbick book (and again remember this is for a Spain friendly, full co-operation Operation Felix situation):

Apart from what has been discussed about the different gauges:

In 1940, four different companies managed the rail system and they varied their practices in each of their sectors.

The rolling stock was insufficient to meet the movement demands of a large troop force. They were shorter than German ones, in a state of general disrepair and in very limited supply. There were enough rail lines, but they ran in directions unfavourable to attacking Gibraltar. The general disrepair of the rail lines (the beds were incapable of carrying the maximum load) meant that only the most essential supplies could be carried. How many trains did the Germans believe possible per day? Four, each carrying 400 tons.....

Sorry Curtis Lemay, what were you saying about the one rail line?

Obviously security was impossible under these conditions and sabotage both simple and effective. The Germans were alarmed at the number of tunnels and bridges.....

The army supply officer (von Waldau) did a detailed analysis. The approach would be a land march (Irun-Burgos-Salamanca-Seville-Jerez) = 1,200 kilometres. Just the projected troop strength for Gibraltar required 65,383 men, 1,094 horses, 13,179 tons of ammo, and more than 9,000 tons of gasoline. These supplies could not move in conjunction with the combat troops and so supply teams had to establish advance bases at Burgos, Salamanca, Merida and Seville. Selected units would occupy pre-determined repair shops and prepare facilities for German use.

Halder reported being concerned about available routes for motorised units given the roads - the roads for the 1,200Km march mentioned above were barely adequate; narrow, winding and laid through passes 2,000 metres high, all food would have to be taken with them as there was no possibility to live off the land given the dire food situation. The same situation applied to fuel....

At the end of the journey all equipment had to be carried on two roads within range of Gibraltar's guns.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

The Italians will be needed to help garrison Spain. Also, they need to be warned that a risky strike at the Pyramids from Libya is unnecessary.

warspite1

And there you have it. Your debating style in a nutshell. You've been told, at great length, why it is highly unlikely Mussolini would agree to any such thing. You've been provided with quotes by the key players and historical examples.

Your response?

Curtis Lemay: I am ignoring you, I am going to repeat the same thing I've been churning out for pages - and I'm not going to provide a scrap of evidence in support of my position or even give you the courtesy of why I believe your evidence is wrong. But then I don't have to, I'm Curtis Lemay and I'm always right.

You're just repeating the same things over and over again. Why should I do any differently.

I repeat, different circumstances produce different results. Germany adopting a Med Strategy is a very different circumstance.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

They rested and refitted after the Fall of France because they could - no other reason. If France had lasted longer, they would have carried on as long as it took. Take Barbarossa: continuous combat from late June to the end of October, with perhaps four weeks stopped. Take the Allies in France in 1944: From early June to the end of September before any pause. There is no requirement to rest entire divisions because tanks need repair. You just pull individual tanks out of the line, service them, and send them on to catch up once they're back in condition.

warspite1

We've covered this. No one is denying that sometimes (in fact very often) units are kept in the field too long out of necessity - because circumstances dictate. That doesn't make it right and not something an army chooses to do for obvious reasons, and no one chooses to start a whole new campaign with understrength, tired units.....

Circumstances will dictate for Spain too. And, as I've said before, there will be a standard distribution of fatigue in the German units. Those that are freshest can be used in Spain. Those that have seen the heaviest action will form the deception on the Channel.

warspite1

Not at all. They will all be fresh. The time it will take to deal with the political/diplomatic aspects, the training of the Kuebler's XLIX Corps and the intelligence work on the Rock - this operation won't be ready until late 1940 at the earliest.

Why? Why can't the political stuff take place earlier, if the grand plan is to do a Med Strategy from the get go? Why does the Spain operation have to wait for Gibraltar to be ready?

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Do you know how long the Germans planned for the destruction of Gibraltar? Two weeks? Three weeks? How long were the Germans going to hang around without any need to rush?

Why does Gibraltar have to be ready before Spain can begin????

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: Curtis Lemay

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

From the Burbick book (and again remember this is for a Spain friendly, full co-operation Operation Felix situation):

Apart from what has been discussed about the different gauges:

In 1940, four different companies managed the rail system and they varied their practices in each of their sectors.

The rolling stock was insufficient to meet the movement demands of a large troop force. They were shorter than German ones, in a state of general disrepair and in very limited supply. There were enough rail lines, but they ran in directions unfavourable to attacking Gibraltar. The general disrepair of the rail lines (the beds were incapable of carrying the maximum load) meant that only the most essential supplies could be carried. How many trains did the Germans believe possible per day? Four, each carrying 400 tons.....

Sorry Curtis Lemay, what were you saying about the one rail line?

Obviously security was impossible under these conditions and sabotage both simple and effective. The Germans were alarmed at the number of tunnels and bridges.....

The army supply officer (von Waldau) did a detailed analysis. The approach would be a land march (Irun-Burgos-Salamanca-Seville-Jerez) = 1,200 kilometres. Just the projected troop strength for Gibraltar required 65,383 men, 1,094 horses, 13,179 tons of ammo, and more than 9,000 tons of gasoline. These supplies could not move in conjunction with the combat troops and so supply teams had to establish advance bases at Burgos, Salamanca, Merida and Seville. Selected units would occupy pre-determined repair shops and prepare facilities for German use.

Halder reported being concerned about available routes for motorised units given the roads - the roads for the 1,200Km march mentioned above were barely adequate; narrow, winding and laid through passes 2,000 metres high, all food would have to be taken with them as there was no possibility to live off the land given the dire food situation. The same situation applied to fuel....

At the end of the journey all equipment had to be carried on two roads within range of Gibraltar's guns.

Obviously, they would have to repair the rail lines. Standard practice in any campaign. How could this possibly be worse than Russia - do I have to remind anyone of the progress the Germans made in Barbarossa - against vastly greater resistance?

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

1.
You believe your scenario would have worked. You said you "know" this because it’s been "war gamed" and so that somehow proves it. Nothing else is required. This belief that a war game somehow provides that degree of proof of what would have been, was taken to the heights of absurdity when you confidently stated “And, all [the Germans] have to do is get to Madrid, whereupon Spain will surrender and her forces will dissolve”. Why did you state that? Well because it was in the rules of a war game…….

quote:

I have sought to counter a number of your ideas. I've done this where possible using historical examples, quotes, stats and military studies in order to support what I’ve said. In the example above when I commented on what I thought was more likely and that the Spanish would not simply surrender because the capital was occupied you again confidently stated as fact that “Every other European country did the exact same thing”. This of course is rubbish and numerous examples were given to evidence why it was rubbish. But you didn’t even think it necessary to check the facts before boldly making such an obviously wrong statement.

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2.
You believe that writing one liners in which you essentially say "I am right" is sufficient. You don’t put any effort into supporting your case. You confidently state that “whatever force the Germans put into Spain… one rail line will be far more than sufficient to supply it” and “Now, how many trains can be pushed down a single line in a day? Surely at least 24….”. Unusually in this case you did actually attempt to provide some evidence in support of your “fact”. Unfortunately the data you provided referred to US railroads and not specific to Spain. The supporting data was therefore essentially useless as the conclusion you drew bears no relationship to reality.

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3.
You believe that when quoting the few historical details you have, it doesn't weaken your case that about 80% of them have actually been wrong. I mean seriously, how can you opine on a “what-if” if you don’t understand about the events involved? I am not going to repeat the long list of factual errors you have made, but would comment upon one example. You seek to make a case for what would happen post the fall of France. As part of that you need to make assumptions for how the British would react to any moves. In order to do this it is only expected that you would have at least some knowledge of the European war Sept 1939-June 1940. If you don’t understand what actually happened, then how can you seek to opine on what may have happened in any counterfactual? You are making a case for what the British would or wouldn’t do and gave this example: “After they miraculously rescued the BEF from Dunkirk, they didn't insert it right back into France further West in a misguided attempt to save France. Neither would they be inserting it into Spain”. I mean seriously? You are giving your opinion on what the British would/wouldn’t have done based on a 100% factually inaccurate statement. That you are “authoritatively” commenting on this and yet had never even heard of the second BEF, let alone what it did, is pretty shocking.

quote:

Whereas I believe that knowing what happened when and why is kind of important. At the very least it gives a solid base line for exploring what may have happened. Like for example when looking at the way Mussolini was likely to behave faced with the circumstances of your scenario. I have given numerous examples to show Mussolini’s actual thoughts, Badoglio’s actual mind set, Italian actual war aims, and I’ve given historical examples, all to support what I believe is more likely to have happened. It would be nice if you made the same effort.