loki100
Posts: 10920
Joined: 10/20/2012
From: Utlima Thule
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T100 – 16 May 1943
So given most games never get here, worth a discussion. Not least I suspect the relative stalemate since November is going to be ending soon.
So summary chart
VP situation is worth a discussion. I've actually gained a bit over recent turns due to excess garrisons. Some of this is by design as I have sent some AA stuff to the West for the VP and to lower the impact of the bombing but some is a result of one of the many bonuses the axis player gets.
In effect, not making historical mistakes really pays off. Not wrecking the Rumanian army at Odessa means the units that were released to replace the losses are actually released in addition. Here the units that go to France should be going as depleted shells, pulling down manpower and assets and not adding to the garrison requirement. Mine are going off at high TOE so not only do I get the resources on map I also gain VP.
There are more of these to come, most eggregious (in my mind) related to the Finland rules.
On map, nothing to say for the northern half. Steady stream of Soviet attacks, most fail, every now and then I adjust my lines. For the moment I can just about cycle cut up units in/out of the front lines.
Situation in the south, my original front is fraying but for the moment am clinging on. Its mostly as good a line as I have available and clearly there are 3 VP cities right in the front lines.
I'm not particularly focussed on them any more. Whatever happens I lose the initiative in July – unless I've really miscalculated I'm safe against the sudden death rules for most of 1943 and equally have no chance of a win vs the HWM in December 1944.
So while the Soviets have the incentive of reaching for the sudden death conditions, as long as I can keep some control I'm more looking to the 1945 tests for any chance at all.
This turn I pulled the equivalent of 3 Panzer Armies out of the line. If I am to do any damage it has to be done with real force. I've done fairly well in the low level attacks around Kharkov but reaching the stage where that has little utility.
No need to talk too much over supply – I have plenty. Practically that means I have very few mobile formations <45 MP, so the potential for exploitation and a pocket is there.
Ground losses.
Air losses – still getting a huge amount out of the LW, just about staying within my trained pilot allocation.
Manpower situation is good (still convincing E-Adolf I need lots of men to replace my losses at Stalingrad). More than happy to use Hungarian and Rumanian formations simply as I can readily refit them.
Plenty of planes, have mostly removed the Stukas from the map as I find the Fw190s much better as ground attack planes.
Tank situation less ideal
At the moment the artillery situation is not too bad but its going to get worse as the pressure increases. In my vs AI game in the end I scrapped pretty much every artillery SU to push the assets into the divisions.
So what next. Well clearly the Soviets have agency but its not without restrictions.
From recent minor counter-attacks, well rested the Rifle Corps are now too strong to shift (without really heavy losses) – this is from a few turns back but makes the point:
On the other hand, as they run out their CPP, build up fatigue and so on, they can weaken badly. Equally at this stage, the Soviet mobile formations still lose badly in combat with the Panzers.
So that makes reaching for encirclements a very high risk activity if I have fresh armoured formations on a given sector. And while my current front line has been battered, the core of it has held for the last 5 turns with just a few lost hexes here and there.
Ot in other words, in a running battle I can still win, I can (just about) defend when everything is in my favour, what I can't do is a set-piece Kursk style attack.
My interpretation of the Soviet options is they can do a (mix of) 4 things.
Leningrad, where in the end I could be overwhelmed, putting Pskov and Talinin in play. But that is going to be one hex at a time and its not easy for the Soviets to keep supplied, never mind exploit any wins.
Smolensk, very feasible – in theory they need to take it by T121 to gain a net VP score on the transaction. I've kept the bulk of 4 and 9 Armies here, with reserves, at a pinch several Panzer Corps could deploy. The terrain is poor and I have multiple reserve lines. On the other hand, almost impossible to counter-attack and I'd assume the Soviets have good supply.
Stalino, in one sense already lost. The gain is access to the Dnepr, as the front moves west it widens (usually bad for me) but the rail net is dire. I'll be falling back onto even better supply as they get stretched.
Which leaves Bryansk-Kharkov. Its the obvious place, mostly clear terrain, the Desna isn't much of a barrier and it dismantles any defensive lines east of Smolensk and around Stalino.
There is one huge problem, the pre-war Soviet rail net did not envisage an east-west offensive on this sector. There is one N-S rail now well behind their lines, one that is the current front but its not easy to pull freight from Orel to Belgorod etc. The E-W line to Bryansk is easy to defend and there are huge gaps where there is no E-W link or large gaps.
Or, in other words, plenty of places where an offensive can get over-extended.
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RE: T84 - lots of moving around - 
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