Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: rustysi



Been a bit quiet around here lately, so I thought some questions might lead to a discussion.

I know some items did come through Spain, in addition to some 'blockade runners' skirting the coast. What I'm wondering is, how often, and how much of what might have gotten through. Or just plain old Spanish items being bought into the Axis Empire.

About Turkey I've no idea, but I have the same questions.

Have there been any decent books on this particular subject?

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi

Have there been any decent books on this particular subject?

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: rustysi



Been a bit quiet around here lately, so I thought some questions might lead to a discussion.

I know some items did come through Spain, in addition to some 'blockade runners' skirting the coast. What I'm wondering is, how often, and how much of what might have gotten through. Or just plain old Spanish items being bought into the Axis Empire.

About Turkey I've no idea, but I have the same questions.

Have there been any decent books on this particular subject?

warspite1

There was a discussion in the General Discussion thread recently in which it was fancifully claimed that Germany could have simply 'blitzed' through Spain and Turkey as part of a spiffing wheeze to win the war.

One of the great many things this completely ignored was that German imports of Tungsten (from Portugal and Spain) and Chromium (from Turkey) would have been, at best, disrupted, and at worst stopped completely.

I am not sure what other commodities Germany sourced from these countries, but these were key resources for their armaments industry.

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The problem with blitzing through Spain and Turkey is that the geography does not favor that approach.

Check out this thread, there is a link to an online book in there somewhere:

The question to ask about The Italians

https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4865073

quote:

ORIGINAL: guctony

As A Native Turkish,

I can quite easily say that a blitz to Anatolia was quite impossible there was neither sufficient road or railroad infrastructure and it is quite a mountainous region. not to mention that there would be very strong insurgence against ant invading party.

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I suppose it's important to define what we mean by invasion regarding Spain - is it a coerced "invitation" to deal with Gibraltar or an outright invasion? That changes the dynamic substantially.

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The problem with blitzing through Spain and Turkey is that the geography does not favor that approach.

Check out this thread, there is a link to an online book in there somewhere:

The question to ask about The Italians

https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4865073

The geography is absolutely more of a challenge to operations in Spain than the open stretches of Ukraine and the Russian steppe.

That said, it doesn't make up for the deficiencies of the Spanish position in 1940, which is similar to Norway in many respects.

quote:

ORIGINAL: guctony

As A Native Turkish,

I can quite easily say that a blitz to Anatolia was quite impossible there was neither sufficient road or railroad infrastructure and it is quite a mountainous region. not to mention that there would be very strong insurgence against ant invading party.

Why would the Germans need to campaign in Anatolia in the first place?

The western stretch of the Marmara region is open to German invasion, and with it the largest concentration of Turkish population and industry.

Turkey in 1940 simply does not have the air power to oppose the Luftwaffe, and so cannot effectively oppose littoral operations in Aegean. With both of those regions in German control, what need is there to push to Ankara?

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ORIGINAL: mattj78

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I suppose it's important to define what we mean by invasion regarding Spain - is it a coerced "invitation" to deal with Gibraltar or an outright invasion? That changes the dynamic substantially.

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

The problem with blitzing through Spain and Turkey is that the geography does not favor that approach.

Check out this thread, there is a link to an online book in there somewhere:

The question to ask about The Italians

https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4865073

The geography is absolutely more of a challenge to operations in Spain than the open stretches of Ukraine and the Russian steppe.

That said, it doesn't make up for the deficiencies of the Spanish position in 1940, which is similar to Norway in many respects.

quote:

ORIGINAL: guctony

As A Native Turkish,

I can quite easily say that a blitz to Anatolia was quite impossible there was neither sufficient road or railroad infrastructure and it is quite a mountainous region. not to mention that there would be very strong insurgence against ant invading party.

Why would the Germans need to campaign in Anatolia in the first place?

The western stretch of the Marmara region is open to German invasion, and with it the largest concentration of Turkish population and industry.

Turkey in 1940 simply does not have the air power to oppose the Luftwaffe, and so cannot effectively oppose littoral operations in Aegean. With both of those regions in German control, what need is there to push to Ankara?

Turkey would run to the allies for help every action causes a reaction look at a map clearly the allies wouldn't just sit by and let it happen its just fanciful Germany had no strategic interest in Spain or turkey any way

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I don't think it's fanciful at all that the Wehrmacht could have blitzed through Spain or Turkey.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I'd be interested in this as well. Payne's work has been on my radar, but I've been disciplined in buying books recently and a strong recommendation may tip me over the edge.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: guctony

As A Native Turkish,

I can quite easily say that a blitz to Anatolia was quite impossible there was neither sufficient road or railroad infrastructure and it is quite a mountainous region. not to mention that there would be very strong insurgence against ant invading party.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: mattj78

Turkey would run to the allies for help every action causes a reaction look at a map clearly the allies wouldn't just sit by and let it happen its just fanciful Germany had no strategic interest in Spain or turkey any way

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I suppose it's important to define what we mean by invasion regarding Spain - is it a coerced "invitation" to deal with Gibraltar or an outright invasion? That changes the dynamic substantially.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

And the real problem was that the Germans were short on manpower once they took on Russia. Even an untroubled occupation like Southern France required troops to keep an eye on things. Spain and Portugal would have been another drain on manpower.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

And the real problem was that the Germans were short on manpower once they took on Russia. Even an untroubled occupation like Southern France required troops to keep an eye on things. Spain and Portugal would have been another drain on manpower.

warspite1

No, this was 'covered' too. Apparently the Italians would have been gagging to provide occupation troops for the Germans in Spain.....

Seriously, you can't make this up.

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

And the real problem was that the Germans were short on manpower once they took on Russia. Even an untroubled occupation like Southern France required troops to keep an eye on things. Spain and Portugal would have been another drain on manpower.

warspite1

No, this was 'covered' too. Apparently the Italians would have been gagging to provide occupation troops for the Germans in Spain.....

Seriously, you can't make this up.

My sense of the Italian efforts is that the men were not really invested in the war, so I doubt they had the will to hold down the Spanish and Portuguese partisans that would have been a plague. The more ruthless Germans would have been needed, at least some token overseers.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I don't think it's fanciful at all that the Wehrmacht could have blitzed through Spain or Turkey.

warspite1

Well if you care to support that comment, let's hope you do more than rely on the rules of an old board game .

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I suppose it's important to define what we mean by invasion regarding Spain - is it a coerced "invitation" to deal with Gibraltar or an outright invasion? That changes the dynamic substantially.

warspite1

It's a blitz through Spain. As per real life, Spain says no to Germany's offer (although the person proposing the strategy believes that Franco could have had his mind changed....) and Hitler decides to invade the country, and the regime that German blood was spilled to install, just the previous year.

Simples

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Just compare the conditions of the respective armed forces in 1940.

The Spanish look good on paper, but it's essentially a WW1 era army. Any modern trappings (be it guns, tanks or aircraft) originate from Germany or Italy.

It's worth noting that the Republic lasted until April '39, and the equipment of the Popular Army can be described as chaotic at best.

The Turkish position is even worse.

In short, neither is remotely ready for anything approaching a modern war in 1940.

In the broad terms, can German forces in 1940 beat Franco's forces? The response there is yes.

What comes after is likely to be very muddy, and not of much benefit to Germany in the long run.

The move doesn't make the most sense in strategic or diplomatic terms, but that wasn't a requirement for the OKW.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Just compare the conditions of the respective armed forces in 1940.

The Spanish look good on paper, but it's essentially a WW1 era army. Any modern trappings (be it guns, tanks or aircraft) originate from Germany or Italy.

It's worth noting that the Republic lasted until April '39, and the equipment of the Popular Army can be described as chaotic at best.

The Turkish position is even worse.

In short, neither is remotely ready for anything approaching a modern war in 1940.

In the broad terms, can German forces in 1940 beat Franco's forces? The response there is yes.

What comes after is likely to be very muddy, and not of much benefit to Germany in the long run.

The move doesn't make the most sense in strategic or diplomatic terms, but that wasn't a requirement for the OKW.

warspite1

I don't think there is any doubt in the slightest that the Germans would beat a Spanish army that was largely an infantry force, devoid of armour and trucks, a small, obsolete navy devoid of oil and an air force with a hotch potch of aircraft from many nations that have been cannibalised to keep flying. The Turks would likely be more of a handful, but I suspect would not last too much longer on their own.

quote:

However, that is not the point. The point is, a 'blitz' through Spain and Turkey is what is required in order that Barbarossa can still happen in the summer of 1942. Ultimate victory by the Germans is not in doubt. The cost in terms of the political, military, economic and time cost very much is.

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ORIGINAL: Orm

The political cost for this operation seems very high to me. Not only declaring war Spain to consider here. There is also the question of Vichy France. Had AH, and Germany, planned for Spain, and Gibraltar, before they begun peace talks with France then passage for an Army going into Spain would, in my humble opinion, not been any real issue for Vichy France. But since they did not, I suspect the Vichy leadership would have strongly objected.

So how would the world react to Germany entering a treaty with France, and break it before the ink dried up. And then, without any cause, advance into Spain. UK might very well have won the war by this, even if it cost them Gibraltar.

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I don't think Vichy objections would rank high in terms of obstacles at all, nor the wider diplomatic consequences.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Spain doesn't seem a theatre through which the British can win the war to me (if they can at all win it before Soviet and American entry). In the aftermath of the Fall of France, the UK has a lot of theatres screaming for troops and I'd wonder at the Spanish ability to hold out for any length of time given the carnage of the civil war.

What does Britain even have to send in 1940-41? From hazy memory it wasn't until 1943 that the UK was in the positon to feel comfortable with campaigns on continental Europe (and with the arrival of the Americans at that!).

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805

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ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I don't think Vichy objections would rank high in terms of obstacles at all, nor the wider diplomatic consequences.

warspite1

I think Vichy considerations weighed very, very heavily. But before all that, there is the rather key question of whether Hitler could have taken the massive leap that is declaring war on Spain. Of course he didn’t take that route in real life and its pretty much impossible, to me at any rate, that there are circumstances in which he would have been persuaded to do so.

quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Spain doesn't seem a theatre through which the British can win the war to me (if they can at all win it before Soviet and American entry). In the aftermath of the Fall of France, the UK has a lot of theatres screaming for troops and I'd wonder at the Spanish ability to hold out for any length of time given the carnage of the civil war.

What does Britain even have to send in 1940-41? From hazy memory it wasn't until 1943 that the UK was in the positon to feel comfortable with campaigns on continental Europe (and with the arrival of the Americans at that!).

Suspending disbelief and assuming Hitler does attack Spain, there is no British win as such in Spain. Gibraltar would fall too. But again this I think misses the point. Lebensraum is Hitlers raison d’etre, its his Holy Grail. The ‘blitz’ through Spain and Turkey is being suggested as the way Germany could have beaten the Soviets in 1942.

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But what this completely ignores is the costs of doing so. The taking of Gibraltar, the surrender of Malta - even the loss of Suez - doesn’t actually change much. There is only one war that matters. What this ...ahem... ‘blitz’ through Spain and Turkey does is to cost Germany in ways she just can’t afford. Germany would be in a worse position attempting a 1942 Barbarossa - and that assumes things have gone as well as can be expected in Spain and Turkey and North Africa.

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

I don't think so - continental France is effectively controlled by the Germans. The overseas territories and much of the military is splintering off to the Vichy Regime or joining the Free French.

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805