RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (Allies) vs Seminole (Axis)

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RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (Allies) vs Seminole (Axis)

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RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/29/2022 2:09:18 PM

Seminole
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quote:

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

Why do you have to rail units to the North for Refit, can't they refit on depots near the front?

In my observation units on depots don’t take on replacements nearly as effectively as when you place them on a National Supply Source.
It also seems the logistics engine works south to north, so units in Milan get more replacements than units in Vienna, which seem to get more than units in Berlin.

It just seems putting units in Milan they’ll refill all available replacements in a week or two. Excepting the armored cars and other things Germany never seems to have enough of for full TOE.

(in reply to EwaldvonKleist)

Post #: 121

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/29/2022 3:13:42 PM

Seminole
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Status of mechanized forces at the end of turn 29 (January 15, 1944)

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Post #: 122

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/29/2022 3:16:16 PM

Seminole
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Turn 30
January 22, 1944

Weather report:

No Allied landings yet, but still heavy recon in the Rome to Pescara belt.
Will continue shipping reinforcements here and also try to stage security units to guard the rail junctions.

(in reply to Seminole)

Post #: 123

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/29/2022 3:23:47 PM

Seminole
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The Guards BR Arm Div is unable to restore lines of communication to the beach.
The Polish infantry take up positions in the foothills after a combined arms attack forces back the German infantry regiment that was picketing the line.
These units will be captured this week.

The Achilles beachhead the Allies again push out the perimeter.
This week General Zangen will evacuate The Heel.

At Death Valley the Allies are slowly trying to batter their way north.

(in reply to Seminole)

Post #: 124

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/29/2022 3:46:33 PM

Seminole
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Front lines at the beginning of the turn:

9th SS Pzr Div herds the 1/3rd and 2/3rd PO Inf Rgts back to the beach from their position in the hills.
Hasty fails and is followed up with a deliberate.
10th SS Pzr Div tries to clean up and fails, so they are reinforced with the 26th Pzr Div and 90th PzG Div and they succeed in compelling the surrender.
Over 22k POWs processed!

Pivot back to the north, 12th SS PzG Div and 3/17th SS PzG Rgt hit the 1st Tabor Goums FF Mtn Rgt and force them back.

This opens the way for the rest of the 17th SS PzG that was defending in the Heel to withdraw and reform in Termoli.
Which frees 2/1st FJ Rgt to move from Termoli to the north and into light woods off the beaches north of Pescara.

Ground losses for the turn:

(in reply to Seminole)

Post #: 125

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/29/2022 4:11:56 PM

Seminole
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Operation Valkyrie - saving units in the Heel.
5 regiments defending Taranto and Brindisi are flown out this week.
Total losses in the operation amount to 2 aircraft and 20 men:

Unit, transport cost, transports squadron, type and count:

End of turn positions for Army Group C in central and south Italy.

(in reply to Seminole)

Post #: 126

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/29/2022 4:17:51 PM

Seminole
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If our estimates are correct shipping losses to date place the Allied troop ship level at 72% of initial, and cargo ships at 90% of same.

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Post #: 127

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/30/2022 12:11:41 AM

EwaldvonKleist
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Why does your South Italy fortified line have this shape, considering it makes for a long frontline once the allies have catched up? Especially, why not anchornit at Salerno, but have it bulged out to the Southwest?

Your counterattacks are very effective-what does your opponent donwrong? To me it seems
1) Slow beginning gave you time to prepare, then snowball effects.
2)Tactical inaccuracies with the Airforce, allowing you to interdict shipping lanes occasionally.
3) The landings are isolated and too spaced out, therefore not mutually supportive. The beachheads are too small for sufficient force accumulation for a breakout.
4) Tactical inaccuracies with regards to attacks (too many holds), retreat and rout path planning, and reconnaissence (several failed airdrops)

Thanks for the explanations and well done AAR and image editing.

< Message edited by EwaldvonKleist -- 1/30/2022 12:28:30 AM >

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Post #: 128

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/30/2022 1:19:17 AM

Seminole
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quote:

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

Why does your South Italy fortified line have this shape, considering it makes for a long frontline once the allies have catched up? Especially, why not anchornit at Salerno, but have it bulged out to the Southwest?

Your counterattacks are very effective-what does your opponent donwrong? To me it seems
1) Slow beginning gave you time to prepare, then snowball effects.
2)Tactical inaccuracies with the Airforce, allowing you to interdict shipping lanes occasionally.
3) The landings are isolated and too spaced out, therefore not mutually supportive. The beachheads are too small for sufficient force accumulation for a breakout.
4) Tactical inaccuracies with regards to attacks (too many holds), retreat and rout path planning, and reconnaissence (several failed airdrops)

Thanks for the explanations and well done AAR and image editing.

1) The battles in Sardinia and Corsica did provide time for additional reserves to be on hand, but I try to avoid close run attacks if at all possible. The price of failure is too high, and leaves you weakened to counter attack. The Allies have launched a great deal of hasty attacks, the failure of which has buffed German morale, and probably had a deleterious effect on their own.

2) Kent found himself surprised by the efficacy of the Luftwaffe with their mines and guided missiles in our first go around, and this time he brought everything to bear. The failure to concentrate landings allowed the Germans to decide where to focus, while the Allied naval airpower was spread. I also use the LB force heavily in '43, as the growth of the Allied Air Forces over '44 make them substantially weaker in relative terms. I don't have much hope of contesting sea lanes in the Channel, I expect it would just be asking for a slaughter.

3) As you noted, the landings are not really mutually supporting. Many potential landing spots are strategically hemmed in by geography, and should be avoided. I have maintained from the outset the best place to land is in The Heel, where you can establish breathing space for retreat, and have many airbases on hand to supplement the landing zone airfields. The landing zone temporary depots can also be established on rails, to feed farther north.

4) Kent is aggressive. In some cases the attacks are necessary just to grind down fortifications and defenders, but he does make low odds hasty attacks more often that I ever do.

(in reply to EwaldvonKleist)

Post #: 129

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/30/2022 1:26:56 AM

Seminole
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Forgot to explain the fortifications.

In the Allied logistics phase on the turn the Italians surrender, as well as every turn after that in which the below conditions are met, there is a chance that some hexes in Italy, Sardinia and Corsica will change to Allied control. hexes with coordinates x>151 and y>253 or hexes that are part of Corsica or Sardinia may change.
German units in Italy or Corsica can prevent the switchover. All German units prevent a change in any hex that is within a number of hexes of the unit equal to 1+(unit Cv/2). So a German unit with a Cv of 9 would prevent a switchover in any hex within 5 hexes of the unit. Any hex that is not within range of a German unit has a 50 percent chance of switching to Allied control

This isn't worked as described in the manual. In my previous game against Kent I go over it in the AAR (I have maps showing the German control overlay for various units in the rear area). The result is that hexes flip control, the rails are destroyed, and southern depots quit getting supplies. The construction units won't fix the rails in the S. Italy 'rebel zone', so you have to protect them if you want to keep them.
The forts are basically a hacky way to avoid this, and that sector you see south of Foggia with forts on the plains is to ensure my depots in Foggia and the one under 10th Army HQ in the hills continue to get supplies. It's also why you see those Air HQs on rail hexes on the western coast down south.

< Message edited by Seminole -- 1/30/2022 1:28:18 AM >

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Post #: 130

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/30/2022 1:41:24 AM

Seminole
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Turn 31
January 29, 1944

Weather report:

The 1st US Arm Div positions itself precariously to cut off the 9th SS Pzr Div.
I setup the defensive spacing hoping for this opportunity to rout an over aggressive move.
Almost 40% of the 1st Armored Division's tanks are lost:

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Post #: 131

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/30/2022 2:00:31 AM

Seminole
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15th Army's LI Mtn Corps will oversee the retreat of a screen of infantry regiments to induce the Allied armor forward toward Foggia and fall back on the Ofanto river line.

Mechanized forces will remain to hold the hills north of the Basento river valley. We can't expect to regain this territory if lost, so it must be held.
H. Goering Pzr Div is railed south to Foggia. Next week it and other mechanized forces will gather in the Basento valley for the sichelschnitt behind the Allied advance.
Barletta has no port facilities, so units trapped here will have no escape path.

(in reply to Seminole)

Post #: 132

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/30/2022 2:04:40 AM

Seminole
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Germans begin planning to bring up garrison levels in N. Europe for March.

Defensive arrangements in Italy, awaiting the next Allied set of landings to occur.
We've basically finished the Adriatic coastline defenses as well.
Will spend the next few weeks rotating infantry north and south in Italy for refit in Milan.
91st Air Landing Division is in Milan now, but will come south soon.

(in reply to Seminole)

Post #: 133

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/30/2022 4:07:36 AM

Seminole
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Turn 32
February 5, 1944

Forgot to grab a weather report.
Recon ADs to check Allied reserves:

VP pivot in 1944.

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Post #: 134

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/30/2022 4:13:24 AM

Seminole
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Post #: 135

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/30/2022 4:24:21 AM

Seminole
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Turn 33
Feb 12, 1944

Weather report:

2nd SS Pzr Div sent to NW France for refit from Vienna, should push over the garrison requirement for March next week.
I removed the SUs from NW France and cost them almost five garrison points.
May need to put them back depending on refit of the SS Panzers.
114th Jaeger Division still on railcars (transiting Netherlands) from the East Front, needs to unload in NE France next week and they should meet the threshold for garrisons too.
A division from the Netherlands will be freed up to meet NE or NW France needs, otherwise it will go to N Italy.
Toulouse city garrison requirement (March) already met.
For May need Tours (Sec. Rgt) and Druex full city garrison.

(in reply to Seminole)

Post #: 136

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/30/2022 4:40:29 AM

Seminole
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Valentine’s Day Massacre
Operation Eros, mechanized counteroffensive against the weak Allied center.
The left and right Allied wings have been over extended, and cannot support one another given the distance, terrain and mud.
The weather and time of year also disrupt Allied air supremacy.
Germans instead can focus their own air superiority and achieve a breakthrough against the under strength Allied center and exploit their lack of deployed echelon reserves.
Once the breakthrough is achieved follow on force will exploit north to the Adriatic coast to perform a mirror of the sichelschnitt from the Ardennes in 1940.

It's hard to discern, but the yellow highlighted hexes are still clear, while the remaining hexes are light mud.

2nd BR Inf Bde and 8th IN Inf Div were pushed back by the German mech.
1/15th PzG Rgt grabbed the high ground overlooking the southern approach to provide flank security on the right.
Schmalz PzG Bde then exploited the gap followed by the 10th SS Pzr Div to again batter the 2nd BR Inf Bde into retreat.
90th PzG Div followed Schmalz's footsteps, then separated into regiments and made contact with the 3rd CA Inf Div in Bari (port).
Schmalz advances to the outskirts of Barletta, but doesn’t advance into the city. This blocking position should help hold the neck.

(in reply to Seminole)

Post #: 137

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/30/2022 8:06:16 PM

Seminole
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RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/30/2022 10:19:00 PM

EwaldvonKleist
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Sneaky trap. The pocket seems breakable, and I think there also is a chance you will be mauled without achieving surrenders given the CV (which will rise after the Allied logistics phase). St

Looking forward to the continuation!

< Message edited by EwaldvonKleist -- 1/30/2022 10:21:18 PM >

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Post #: 139

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/30/2022 10:43:15 PM

Seminole
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quote:

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

Sneaky trap. The pocket seems breakable, and I think there also is a chance you will be mauled without achieving surrenders given the CV (which will rise after the Allied logistics phase).

His CV isn't reflecting isolation status yet.

Units cut off in the opposing players turn don’t gain isolated status until the next player’s turn in the logistics phase.

Isolated units suffer a supply related Cv penalty that is equal to the percentage of needed supplies for non-motorized units or fuel for motorized units times the percentage of needed ammo. Isolated units have their combat value divided by two in addition to any reductions due to actual shortages of supplies, ammunition and fuel. Isolated units will fire only 1/4 as much as they would if they were not isolated in order to save ammunition.

Ammo status at the end of turn 33:

Barletta was just captured, so no Allied depot in the pocket to distribute supplies.

In addition, when calculating the modified Cv ratio to determine whether a defender will be required to retreat, isolated defending units may have their Cv divided by two if they fail certain checks based on their morale, and the distance to the nearest supplied friendly units.

(in reply to EwaldvonKleist)

Post #: 140

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/30/2022 10:50:25 PM

Seminole
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1st Army continues their watch against landings from Corsica.

10th Army is managing the counterattack and will rotate north as soon as mop up completes.

14th Army has two corps manning the Adriatic coast and two corps occupying the Allied left wing.
When the invasion comes they will rotate north and release command to 15th Army.

15th Army will manage the Gustav Line until landing in the north compel withdrawal.

(in reply to Seminole)

Post #: 141

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/30/2022 11:02:17 PM

Seminole
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Air losses:

Ground losses:

Victory Points:

Axis FBs are brought down to hopefully intercept supply flights and attempted Allied interdiction.

Forgot to include the results of Axis interdiction at the beginning of the turn:

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Post #: 142

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/31/2022 12:00:31 AM

Seminole
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Turn 34
Feb 19, 1944

Weather report:

Garrison needs can be met with existing forces, shouldn’t need to rely on anything currently in Italy.
Rail 2nd SS Pzr Div to Milan to better refit until March relocation. Can shift a unit from the Netherlands to France or Italy as needed in March.
Will begin prep for May by rotating in mech after refit to 85%+ TOE on national supply source.

Victory Points:

(in reply to Seminole)

Post #: 143

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/31/2022 12:06:24 AM

Seminole
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Pocket holds! No sign of the paras, and no additional invasions make landfall.
Will likely take two weeks to reduce the pocket.
The Allies squeezed the cordon, and combat has lowered the remaining MP for several units.
Will work pocket herding west away from friendly lines and divide sub-pockets as best as possible.

Italian front line at the beginning of the turn:

Air losses at the beginning of the turn:

Ground losses at the beginning of the turn:

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Post #: 144

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/31/2022 12:35:28 AM

Seminole
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The Germans lack the momentum to attack the last two bubbles this week, but five formations have been claimed.
With over 70k Allied losses for the week. Next week could be as profitable.

Units destroyed this week:

Ground losses in Axis phase:

Air losses in Axis phase:

< Message edited by Seminole -- 1/31/2022 12:40:28 AM >

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Post #: 145

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/31/2022 2:00:49 AM

Seminole
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Turn 35
Feb 26, 1944

New Landings!
The Allies make four(!) separate landings, none of which are mutually supporting or interlocking, and all on the western coast.
From North to South:
Alpha - TF 81 lands the 50th BR Inf Div under I CA Corps
101st US Airb Div supporting
Beta - TF ‘J’ lands 53rd BR Inf Div under I BR Corps
Gamma - TF (C) lands 5th US Inf Div under II PO Corps
Delta - TF ‘S’ lands 85th US Inf Div under V BR Corps

First order of business is to complete the mop up this week in the south and get all mech units on a path north.
Will need to rotate some airborne forces from the Adriatic coast to N Italy, so we can free up forces from N Italy to help contain the west coast.
Intelligence intercepts indicate that at least two divisions of Canadian armor are off the coast waiting to be unloaded.

Apparently I forgot to get a beginning of the turn of the new landings.
Here is the remains of the pocket at the beginning of the turn:

(in reply to Seminole)

Post #: 146

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/31/2022 2:23:02 AM

Seminole
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Allied losses top 106k for the week on the ground:

Air losses:

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Post #: 147

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/31/2022 6:44:09 PM

Seminole
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Turn 36
March 4, 1944

Weather report:

The Allies surprise us with a paradrop behind the southern part of the line.
1st BR Airborne Div (I BR Corps) makes a landing east of Salerno, behind our line cutting the rails to our forward depot and preventing the mech on rails from immediately heading north.
Division is reinforced with 3 PO Para Bdes, 15k men in all.
Opportunity presents itself to capture an elite unit a few months before D-Day.
Decide to commit Schmalz PzG Bde (even though they are on active rail and could head north), 3rd PzG Div, with 16th & 17th SS PzG Divs.

Ground Attacks by the Italian Luftwaffe Command chewed up 3,050 Allied paras (20% of the force!) and 76 guns (of 186 landed) destroyed.

(in reply to Seminole)

Post #: 148

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/31/2022 6:59:57 PM

Seminole
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Allied attacks from the northern beachheads meet mixed success.
1st Army's goal is to prevent the beachheads from linking up, and to hold the permanent ports as long as possible.
We hope to induce Alpha beach into an eastern advance that we can strike from N. Italy and isolate the vanguard.
Canadians have routed, but I don't think we've welcomed any of them to our POW camps.

In the south the slog continues.
The Germans plan to give ground to the Gustav Line.

(in reply to Seminole)

Post #: 149

RE: Kobiyashi Maru - 1943 GC rematch: kentkroeckel (All... - 1/31/2022 7:16:32 PM

Seminole
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Dietrich’s I SS Pzr Corps leads the assault and the paras are forced to surrender.
16th SS PzG Div (76% TOE) stays put after battle, 17th SS PzG Div (71% TOE) joins 3rd PzG Div (50%) in Salerno to refit and rail out next week.
Schmalz PzG Bde (34%) is east of Salerno covering the depleted 245th Inf Div (8%).
Preliminary plan is to leave 16th and 17th SS PzG Div to help hold Gustav Line.

On map formations destroyed so far this game:

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