Fido81
Posts: 129
Joined: 7/14/2019
Status: offline
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Hello Craigkn! I just took your scenario for a spin, not in editor mode. Here are my thoughts:
Briefing:
I didn't see one (though you did indicate this is a WIP scenario). A briefing explaining the tactical situation would be very much appreciated.
Initial situation:
It looks like the initial setup here is that the player has operational control of NATO forces except for Turkey, and I'm in charge for the next week. My OOB is pretty significant, and reasonably well-deployed. I have control over a lot of satellites, which is interesting. The major operational concerns I have about the initial setup are the number of preconfigured CAP and HVA (MPA, non-stealthy ELINT/ISR) patrols in the Russian SAM envelope, and the presence of a T-AOE with supporting assets in the Black Sea - those both feel like they'll be suicidal if I don't choose to attack first, and I doubt I'll be instructed to. The forward deployment of those AFGSC aircraft to RAF Mildenhall, as well as 100% aircraft availability are both remarkable, though I suppose not impossible.
Playthrough narrative:
I don't have any guidance about whether or not I may shoot first, which is an uncomfortable place to be in the confines of the Black Sea. I guess I'll have to hold my combat aircraft on the ground until I detect hostiles.
As the ISR picture develops, my concerns about the survivability of the SAG rise. I've determined that I don't care in the immediate term if the Russians control the Black Sea, as long as I can attrit their forces in Ukraine. And if the Turks think otherwise - let them! But I'm withdrawing the SAG to just off Istanbul, and the moment the flag goes up, it's going through the straits.
While I wait for the conflict to start, I'm looking at the expected enemy OOB, and I'm noticing a lot of single-unit airfields. I can't attack those with conventional weapons, which means I either have to go nuclear (not allowed in scenario) or destroy their aircraft in the air. Neither option sounds particularly fun to me.
The first SSC-8 intel update references them as being NW of Novoozerene, but I think the coordinates provided place them NE of the base.
At daybreak, Turkish forces are harassing the Russians - Anafartalar has found the Kilo south of the Moskva and engaged in a turning confrontation with it at periscope depth, Burakreis has intercepted the Moskva SAG, and the Gemlik SAG and been counterdetected by its Helixes, for reasons I can't pretend to understand, is picking a fight with the Admiral Grigorovich, a Krivak, and two Buyan corvettes. At this moment, the Russian dawn patrol is taking off.
A working decision has been reached. Unless the situation changes drastically before the first night of the war, the first target of the AFGSC assets will be Dzhankoy Airport - it's within easy unrefueled range, the JASSM-ERs will allow them to stand off outside of radar detection range and either the base will be destroyed, or an SA-21 and SA-23's magazines will be emptied. Either one of those sounds pretty darn attractive right now.
At 0507Z, a flight of Su-27s goes feet dry over Turkey about 5nm east of the Ayancik radar site. And at some point in the past few hours, Su-57s have been detected in-theatre.
It is almost 0800Z, and the air forces of Turkey and Russia have been going at it nonviolently for a couple hours. It's almost surprising the Turks haven't started shooting yet given how flagrantly their airspace has been violated.
The Russians attack at [redacted], picking an interesting time to start fighting - I'd be curious to hear why you chose it. As soon as the Russians attack, I consider all their forces hostile - but do not initiate offensive operations until their first strike concludes.
The Turkish Navy suffers a tragic fate but yields an impressive exchange ratio, trading a Buyan, the Moskva, 2 Admiral Grigorovich FFGs, a Krivak I, and a Kilo for a Gediz (ex-Perry-class), 2 Hebeliada FFGs, and 4 Preveze SSKs (Type 209). I think my Tico is now the biggest kid on the block in the Black Sea, which is good news for its ability to protect the oiler, and probably bad news in terms of what the Russians will go after next. I feel comfortable with the SAG remaining in the Black Sea on the basis of this - its not like the AOE is going to be any safer from the Backfires outside of it.
An early afternoon raid on the headquarters of the 58th CAA Artillery Regiment goes poorly - two Typhoons and an F-35 are lost for no hits on the target, though it costs Russia some 21x SA-21 shots and some fighter sorties to kill them. Winning a war of attrition might be possible, if I make my attacks at night.
At 14:15Z, the USS Vela Gulf takes out a Buyan that had closed to within Harpoon range. At this point I realized that collective responsibility seemed to be turned off - was that intentional?
The AFGSC bombers sortie at dusk, around the time a hostile cruise missile strike is detected by my AWACS. Between my CAP of 2x Fulcrums, a four-ship of Raptors, a pair of Typhoons, and a bit of help from the SAMs (really just a bit), the strike is defeated. I lost the USS Bainbridge in the first ASBM strike though. That was particularly unfortunate, as it held a lot of the SAG's land attack striking power. It also cost me 100 points, in the only score of the game.
I timed the AFGSC strike's arrival at a hold point north of the Crimean Peninsula that holds the entire region at risk with the start of a massive fighter sweep, SEAD, stand off/stand in OECM effort, and a series of SDB air strikes on targets from the West. By 2200Z on Day 1, most strike aircraft are Winchester, but the entire SSM force has been wiped out, 2-3 SA-21 units have been degraded, and over 15 front-line aircraft have been destroyed on the ground between Belbek, Dzhankoy, and Gvardeskoye AB (including 3 Felons and 9 Fullbacks).
At this point, I realized I lacked the stamina for six more days of similar action and called it.
After-game notes:
This scenario is really long. As a player, I personally think the sweet spot for scenarios is 6-72 hours, with the upper limit being more suitable for scenarios using less aircraft. Less than that and there's not really enough decisions to be made. Longer than that, and the game isn't really playable in a single sitting, and it becomes very hard for the scenario author to figure out what the player is going to do and then plan a counter.
Even if there's intentionally no prescribed victory condition, I had no clue what I was supposed to do in the scenario. Please add a briefing next revision, even if it's just "SACEUR says to take all measures consistent with the safety of your command, and to attrit the Russian forces on the Crimean Peninsula" or something similarly vague.
The Russian forces kept on switching from Hostile (which I manually set them to after they attacked NATO) to Unfriendly, so I'm not actually sure I was meant to be attacking them.
There are a lot of friendly satellites in the scenario. My impression is that each spacecraft has a significant and negative effect on game performance. Are all of them really necessary to meet your scenario goals? If not, you should get rid of those that don't.
It felt like the Russians started off with a lot of missions going on - I would have expected them to stand down some forces until the attack if they're starting it (but that's just like my opinion, man) to really surge at the start. It also felt like the Russians were going out pretty far with their CAPs for my understanding of an A2AD employment concept - though that may be a good deviation from it given that NATO has access to unlimited standoff weapons! 
Neither the Valkyrie UCAV nor the SPEAR missiles are operational at this point - I used the Valkyries for OECM but not the SPEARs to give playthrough feedback as the scenario was designed.
Assessment:
I would gladly play the first 24 hours of this scenario again. Thanks for sharing!
SIDE: Russia
===========================================================
LOSSES:
-------------------------------
6x 203mm/44 2A44 2S7 Pion Mobile Howitzer [Cargo]
2x Diesel (750k Liter Tank)
3x Il-20M Coot A
2x Ka-27M Helix A
3x MRK Buyan Mod [Pr.21631 Buyan-M]
1x PL-636.3 Kilo [Varshavyanka]
2x Radar (Cheese Board [96L6])
2x Radar (Flat Face E [P-19, Kasta 2E2 Upgrade])
1x Radar (Hen House [Dnepr, Sharp Angle])
1x Radar (Spoon Rest D [P-18])
3x Radar (Tall Rack [55Zh6M Nebo M, RLM-D L-Band])
1x Radar (Thin Skin B HF [PRV-16])
3x Radar (Tin Shield B [5N59S/36D6])
2x RK Tarantul III [Pr.1241.1M]
1x RKR Moskva [Pr.1164 Atlant, Ex-Slava]
2x SA-16 Gimlet [9K310 Igla-1] MANPADS [Cargo]
2x SA-17 Grizzly [9A316M] LLV [Cargo]
3x SA-17 Grizzly [9А317М] TELAR [Cargo]
9x SA-21a/b Growler TEL [Cargo]
1x SA-23a Gladiator [9A83M] TELAR [Cargo]
1x SA-23a Gladiator [9A84] LLV [Cargo]
1x SKR Admiral Grigorovich [Pr.1135.6M]
1x SKR Admiral Grigorovich [Pr.1135.6M]
1x SKR Krivak I [Pr.1135 Burevestnik]
2x SSC-5 Stooge TEL [K-340P] [Cargo]
2x SSC-6 Switchblade TELAR [3M24E] [Cargo]
16x SSC-8 Screwdriver [9M729 Iskander-K] TEL [Cargo]
2x Su-24M2 Fencer D
6x Su-24MR Fencer E
6x Su-27P Flanker B
38x Su-27SM/SM3 Flanker B
9x Su-34 Fullback
12x Su-35S Flanker E
3x Su-57 Felon
3x Tu-142MZ Bear F Mod 4
1x Vehicle (1L257 Krasuha-4 Mobile Jammer+ELINT)
1x Vehicle (1L269 Krasuha-2 Mobile Jammer+ELINT)
1x Vehicle (85V6 Vega / Orion ELINT)
1x Vehicle (Band Stand [Monolit B]) [Cargo]
1x Vehicle (Cheese Board [96L6]) [Cargo]
1x Vehicle (Plank Shave) [Cargo]
EXPENDITURES:
------------------
22x 100mm/59 A-190 Frag
95x 100mm/59 A-190 HE
15x 14.5mm MG Burst [20 rnds]
39x 30mm Gsh-30-1 Burst [30 rnds]
64x AA-10 Alamo A [R-27R, MR TSARH]
57x AA-10 Alamo B [R-27T, MR IR]
84x AA-10 Alamo C [R-27ER, LR TSARH]
46x AA-11 Archer [R-73M]
28x AA-12 Adder C [R-77M]
100x AK-176 76mm/60 HE Burst [2 rnds]
3x AK-630M 30mm/65 Gatling Burst [400 rnds]
11x AK-630M 30mm/65 Twin Gatling Burst [800 rnds]
4x Generic Acoustic Decoy
167x Generic Chaff Salvo [4x Cartridges]
3x Generic Chaff Salvo [8x Cartridges]
1x Generic Flare Salvo [2x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
22x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
1x Generic Towed Torpedo Decoy
16x Kh-47M2 Kinzhal [700kg HE Penetrator]
16x Kh-47M2 Kinzhal [700kg HE Penetrator] RV
32x PK-10 Chaff [SR-50]
9x RBU-6000 Salvo [12 rnds]
44x RGB-16MK [Search, Passive Omni]
11x SA-17 Grizzly [9M317M]
223x SA-21b Growler [40N6]
13x SA-8b Gecko Mod-1 [9M33M3]
4x SA-N-24 Grinch [9M342]
1x SET-65K
2x SET-65M Enot-2 [NATO ET-80A[76]]
64x SSC-8 Screwdriver [9M729 Iskander-K, 500kg HE Conventional]
16x SS-N-12 Sandbox Mod 2 [P-1000]
2x SS-N-22 Sunburn [P-80 Zubr]
8x SS-N-27 Sizzler [3M54T Kalibr, Rocket Boosted Penetrator]
16x SS-N-27 Sizzler [3M54T Kalibr]
2x TEST-71M [NATO TEST-83]
SIDE: NATO
===========================================================
LOSSES:
-------------------------------
1x DDG 85 McCampbell [Arleigh Burke Flight IIA]
1x E-3G Sentry
3x EF2000 Eurofighter Typhoon [C.16A]
2x F/A-18E Super Hornet
1x F-16AM Falcon MLU [Peace Carpathian]
2x F-22A Raptor
1x F-35A Lightning II
1x F-35A Lightning II
2x MH-60R Seahawk
1x RQ-170A Wraith [Sentinel] UAV
2x RQ-180 UAV
2x XQ-222 Valkyrie
EXPENDITURES:
------------------
20x 20mm/85 M61A2 Vulcan Burst [100 rnds]
10x 27mm Mauser BK-27 Burst [30 rnds]
1x 30mm Gsh-30-1 Burst [30 rnds]
8x AA-10 Alamo A [R-27R, MR TSARH]
12x AA-11 Archer [R-73]
120x AGM-158B JASSM-ER
12x AGM-84K SLAMER-ATA
32x AGM-88E AARGM
2x AIM-120C-7 AMRAAM P3I.3
83x AIM-120D AMRAAM P3I.4
4x AIM-132A ASRAAM
8x AIM-9X-2 Sidewinder Blk III
2x AN/ALE-55 FOTD
2x AN/ALE-70(V)/T-1687 Expendable Decoy
6x Aster 30 PAAMS [GWS.45 Sea Viper]
1x Brite Cloud Active Expendable Decoy
112x GBU-39/B SDB
64x GBU-53/B SDB-II
35x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
7x Generic Chaff Salvo [8x Cartridges]
5x Generic Flare Salvo [3x Cartridges, Dual Spectral]
6x Generic Flare Salvo [3x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
3x Generic Flare Salvo [4x Cartridges, Single Spectral]
15x Laser Shot (Solid State Fiber)
38x Meteor
32x MIM-104E Patriot PAC-2 GEM+
8x MIM-104F Patriot PAC-3 ERINT
19x MIM-104F Patriot PAC-3 MSE
22x Mk214 Sea Gnat Chaff [Seduction]
11x Mk234 Nulka
3x Mk59 Mod 0 Floating Decoy
2x RGM-84G Harpoon ICR
69x RIM-174A ERAM SM-6 Blk IA
2x RIM-66M-2 SM-2MR Blk IIIA
36x RIM-66M-5 SM-2MR Blk IIIB
6x THAAD C-2 CEC
SIDE: Turkey
===========================================================
LOSSES:
-------------------------------
1x F 495 Gediz [Perry, Gabya Class]
2x F 511 Heybeliada [Ada Class]
17x F-16CM Blk 50 Falcon [Peace Onyx III CCIP Upgr]
4x S 353 Preveze [Type 209-1400, Preveze/Gür Class]
EXPENDITURES:
------------------
38x 12.7mm/50 MG Burst [10 rnds]
18x 12.7mm/50 STAMP Burst [20 rnds]
5x 20mm/100 Mk15 Phalanx Blk 1B Burst [300 rnds]
3x 20mm/85 M61A1 Vulcan Burst [100 rnds]
2x 370 USG Drop Tank
6x 76mm/62 Compact HE Burst [4 rnds]
55x 76mm/62 Super Rapido HE Burst [2 rnds]
47x AIM-120B AMRAAM
13x AIM-9X Sidewinder
5x Generic Acoustic Decoy
56x Generic Chaff Salvo [5x Cartridges]
32x Generic Flare Salvo [3x Cartridges, Dual Spectral]
15x Mk24 Tigerfish Mod 2
1x RGM-84G Harpoon ICR
2x Zargana Acoustic Deceptor
2x Zargana Sonar Jammer
2x Zargana Torpedo Decoy
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Very rough NATO vs Russia, Black Sea 2022 - 
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