Apollo11
Posts: 24082
Joined: 6/7/2001 From: Zagreb, Croatia Status: offline
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Hi all, quote:
ORIGINAL: Mogami Hi, This is by no means the complete comprehensive study of the supply problem faced by Japan in scenario 15 (the complete war) On Dec 7 1941 Japan has approximately 140 enemy bases targeted for capture in the first 6 months of the war. (102 inside the SRA and roughly 38 more outside the SRA) I'm sure everyone has seen references that quote something like "Japan had a shortage of shipping" Well to me this is a rather subjective blanket statement that does little to inform us as to the actual conditions. Japan in the first 120 days of the war moved something approaching 6 divisions 6 Brigades and 40 SNLF by sea. In WITP Japan has 3 classes of ships designed for moving land combat units. (AP) She has 174x1.5k AP these are the real assault ships. Worth 5 VP each Then there are the 194x3k AP worth 10 VP each. They can of course be used to conduct assaults with but the higher VP and slower unload means Japan is going to risk more when they are used. They are best used to move in follow on units once a beach has been secured. (Capture the hex and move in airgroups to provide CAP. Then these ships are not exposed to CD fire and are protected from air attacks. Lastly are the 56x4.5k AP. Worth 12 VP These ships are liners. They are best used to transport units in safer waters. They should not move into enemy air range and should have good escort protection assigned. Now all of these ships are troop transports by design. They can move supply but they only carry 1/3 as much supply as they do troops. For movement of supply and resource Japan has 2 classes of AK. 3.5k and 7k. There are 300 of the 7k AK worth 10 VP each and 169 of the 3.5k AK worth 5 VP each Japan controls 148 bases at start. There are 3,012,120 supply points total in all bases combined. The 7k AK can carry 2,100,000 points and the 3.5k AK can carry 591,500 For a total of 2,691,500. If all the starting supply were dispersed evenly among Japanese bases it would equal 20352 at every base. A Japanese infantry division requires 1,200 supply points per month. There are 50 divisions on the map at start. 60,000 A Japanese Brigade requires 1k per month there are 30 Brigades 30,000 supply. The Mongolian Cav div require 250 and there are 10 such units. 2500 to make it short roughly 295,000 supply points are required for unit maintenance per month. This does not include supply required for combat operations or for performing missions with aircraft. So Japan begins the war with a 10 month stockpile of supply. It still has to be moved to where it is to be expended. Every aircraft that flies expends supply points. (Perhaps readers of my AAR's will begin to understand why I keep my sortie numbers so low compared to other players) Combat is going to greatly increase the use of supply. And last but not least we come to the requirements for the industry of Japan. In order to produce new supply we have to convert resources. These resource for the most part must be transported over great distance. They are required daily. We can already see we are going to need at least enough resource to produce 295,000 supply per month. But we also need resource and oil to produce our heavy industry points that allow us to build our ships and aircraft and other equipment and units. On turn 1 there are 13,230 heavy industry under Japanese control. 396,900 resource per month. Shipping on hand 2,691,000 minus our basic "not less then" requirements of 691,000. So we have only to compute the time required to move these totals to see how much shipping will actually be "free" to transport the supply that construction and combat and air use will require. Palembang in Sumatra produces 900 resource per day (27,000) per month basically every 8 days it will load a 7k AK. Palembang is 50 hexes from Osaka. A 7k AK moves 4 hexes per day so the trip will take 13 days. Tobolai is 3 hexes from Palembang (I consider it part of the Palembang-Batavia resource area) it produces 1200 resource per day. So every 6 days a ship will depart and require 12 days to arrive Osaka. We get a Schedule looking like this. Day of month 1 2 3 4 5 6 depart Tobolai 7 8 Depart Palembang 9 10 11 12 Depart Tobolai 13 14 15 16 Depart Palembang 17 18 Arrive Osaka Depart Tobolai 19 20 21 Arrive Osaka 22 23 24 Depart Palembang Depart Tobolai 25 26 27 28 29 Arrive Osaka 30 Arrive Osaka 1 month 2 resource centers close together 7 ships (49,000 resource) however it will require another 7 ships to keep the system running without interruption (coming and going) The Japanese player will have to keep an eye on any item needing transport to Palembang area so the ships do not always return empty. Total transport required is 98,000 but it will only deliver 49,000 per month. (In practice this set up will suffer many losses to enemy submarines because there are not enough escort ships to escort merchants sailing alone. We'll get to the convoy system after a while) The point here is that while we need 396,000 resource per month we have to place almost twice that amount of shipping in the system to maintain it. (subtract another 396,000 from our 2,000,000 free shipping leaving 1,600,000 to move the supply required for combat and air missions and construction. But based on the example from supply I think we can see it will take more shipping to maintain the 295,000 basic supply. So say 1,300,000 load points are free once the basic system for resource and maintenance supply are in place. Still thats a lot of shipping. How much should be reserved to replace ships that require refits or repair of battle damage? (not to say out right loss of ships) If we do not maintain a reserve the system will collapse at some point. Lets say we've assigned all the 3.5k to basic supply runs. That means the left over shipping is 185x7k AK. I believe in reserving 20 percent (37 ships) it may seem like a lot at first but check 2 months into game how many AK are in repair yards or sunk and the next time you play you'll have a larger number in reserve. 185-37 reserve.=1,036,000 If half of that is always loaded and half going to pick up or returning then we can send 518,000 supply per month for combat and other uses. (providing of course we have it to send) So while Japan has major concerns with shipping she is not crippled by it during the opening stages of the war. (most of the shipping requirements do not exist because Japan does not control those bases) As she adds the 140 bases to her control she gain access to the resource but also increased requirements. Add in lost or damaged ships and a shortage could begin to effect events but this will be in the period from May 1942 to May 1943. Japans production expands increasing the demand for shipping. The Japanese player does not want to engage in expansion that increases the supply demand without producing positive results. By mid 1943 the reserve of 37 ships will have proven too few. (more like a third of all available ships will be required to keep the system running.) This means where it appears Japan has 2,700,000 shipping points In practice it can never exceed 1,800,000 points at any one time being used. Without industry expansion, new facility construction, combat or air missions we know we require 1,300,000 point per month. So actual in excess of basic needs will be around 250,000 points per month. To offset this we will find that a lot of supply is created close to where it is consumed so it does not require transport. I hope this helps a little. (more then it confuses) There were players who were afraid Japan had too much transport and others afraid it had too little. In truth it is just about all it can use. (Troop transport wise. ) and just about enough supply and resource wise. It is easy for the Japanese player to create requirements far above what it can move. But also with careful planning it can maintain the Japanese at least to the end of 1943. (I can't predict loss other payers might experience.) I'll cover convoys later. Like all my posts this one will no doubt see extensive editing as I find errors. Just ask for clarification of the murky parts. And OH yes at some point I'll deal with the auto convoy system. It just does not apply yet. Japan has to clear a safe area for it to operate in. All I can say is: "Jesus!!!" Can't hardly wait... this is quartermaster's "wet dream"... BTW, I love that old saying: "Amateurs talk about tactics and strategies while professionals talk about logistics." Leo "Apollo11"
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