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Concerned about global warming? - 6/13/2004 2:37:03 PM

Warrior2

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Excellent information here: http://www.oism.org/pproject/s33p36.htm

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/13/2004 3:09:41 PM

Les_the_Sarge_9_1

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Now that's a lot of data to sift through, but I am sure the OOB crowd is up to it :)

I must say though.

Mother nature has done the Ice Age thing several times in the past, and to assume it will never ever again happen is perhaps incredible stupidity hehe.

Measuring trends based on humanity's recorded history over the last 2000 years is of course stuck with the problem that a lot of the records past 100 years ago, start to get stuck in the fact that accurate record keeping was never what I would call thrilling.

Remember, we didn't call it the dark ages because we didn't have electricity.

All I can say, is I have read enough about planetology as a complete picture, and read enough about the potential of our global conditions coming to haunt us. After having seen the film of recent, and having read the book it was based off of.

I am basically comfortable knowing if I am right or if I am wrong, it is likely nothing will be done by anyone else to alter anything.

Being Canadian, a renewed Ice Age basically would likely start off with my country being completely and utterly wiped out. Along with most of the northern hemisphere, in a poetic form of justice wiping out the industrialised nations for the most part.

I have told people there is no "survival plan" for meeting the scenario of that film head on. You survive it by not starting the ball rolling basically. And as we speak the ball is rolling.

It will likely get hotter before it suddenly gets worse though. I expect to witness massive crop failures in my life time. Can't raise the heat forever eh.

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/13/2004 9:22:58 PM

Charles2222

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No.

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/14/2004 12:51:39 AM

Wild Bill

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If this is the case, not a whole lot we can do about it, I guess. If I were a young man beginning all over again, I seriously question the idea of having children to face what might be fifty years from now...Enough food to eat, water to drink, air to breathe?

Will everyone because of rampant lawlessness, be force to live "Dodge City" style, with a weapon on the hip?

A police officer (Lt. in Homicide) friend of my recently stated, "Every one should have a weapon of some sort in the home. We just can't protect folks today as they should be protected. Most of the time you will be on your own!"

On my own.... interesting thought. It does make one look beyond himself, and beyond all human protection or provision to find the answer.

WB

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/14/2004 12:52:48 AM

Wild Bill

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By the way, Warrior and Les and others. I still get a sort of thrill when I see the MC-SE baner still waving. It was a year ago that we began that magnificent project. It was a great experience for me.

WB

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/14/2004 1:29:09 AM

John Galt

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The children you might have may be the ones to solve difficult problems of the future. And I don't believe "global warming" will have anything to do with those problems. I do believe global warming is a "global scam" to tap into the financial resources of the USA. The world's leftists like nothing better than spreading the misery around.

Concerned about global warming? Hell no!

< Message edited by John Galt -- 6/13/2004 6:30:18 PM >

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/14/2004 1:43:09 AM

Smeghead

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I am concerned, but am not going to let it impact my SPWAW gaming.

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/14/2004 2:23:31 AM

Les_the_Sarge_9_1

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Last I checked, I wasn't part of the US government, I don't have any connection to the oil industry, I don't really like Greenpeace really, I am not selling anything, and generally speaking will not gain one iota convincing you about anything to do with Global Warming.

Beyond getting you to stop being a sucker for any of those groups that generally DOESN'T want you to believe in Global Warming.

Do the research, the research that counts. Examine the mechanism that triggered all the other Ice Ages. They did happen remember. The last Ice Age isn't some cock and bull story thought up to annoy the US and their obsession with jobs at all costs.

This planet is currently in a cooling period as it is known to any well educated planetary scientist. Our planets natural state (if 3/4 of 4.5 billions years can be called the norm) is actually a good deal hotter than it is right now.
Ice Ages are actually not the norm, but then again, we have had more than a few in what mother nature calls "the recent past". The recent past to this planet is NOT 1000 years or 1 million years either.

So for those silly enough to just follow the notion "its all just crap" let me just say this now, "I told you so".

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/14/2004 1:00:17 PM

wodin

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Here is a SHOCKING FACT!

The extinction rate at present is faster than that which finished off the Dinosaurs.

The Ice age happens when the earths axis tilts slightley which happens I think every 50,000 to a 100,000 years (Cant remembe rwhich but its one of those dates).

Yes it will happen also as the ice melts at present it could cool down the oceans thus affecting the gulf stream then its by by UK.

To be honest with you all our species as a whole needs to be cut down and by either our own doing or by nature it will happen. As individuals we can be a super species as a collective we arent at all nice in any way.

BIRD FLU is the most dangerous threat to mankind at present. Onc ethis flu becomes air borne (which will happen and is predicited shortly) the the flu epedemic of WW1 and after will be nothing in comparision. This flu strain is far more aggresive and dangerous when caught than the flu of then.

Nature will find away of putting us in our place one day, and the planet as a whole will be the better for it.

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/15/2004 12:12:11 AM

Commander Klank

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Here is another SHOCKING FACT!

We'll all be dead before any of this happens. So will you great, great, great, great, grand childern...

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/15/2004 1:43:17 AM

wodin

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AS far as the bird flu goes dont be so sure. Flu strains mutate constantly ad it is regarded as one of the biggest threats by the world health organisation.

Global warming is infact already happneing and it only takes a 3 to 5 degrre change to totatly altar our enviroment. In Britian over the past five years if not more a subtle chamge in the weather has already started to appear.

Roll your eyes if you want but I suggest you do some research first.

The funny thing is though. Im not at all bothered by it. Im not an alarmist as I dont feel alarmed we need a good clear out and it will happen. Im sure it will not in my lifetime either.

The USA pulling out of the treaty is appaling and to be honest an utter disgrace. Though it was obvious a man of oil wasnt going to go along with it.

< Message edited by wodin -- 6/14/2004 11:44:50 PM >

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/15/2004 1:47:08 AM

Kokoda

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I tried to ignore this, but I couldn't.

I understand that this is preaching to the converted, but if you are interested in the reliability of the information you should see...

http://www.prwatch.org/improp/oism.html

There are claims of a vast support from scientists...

"Headed by Arthur Robinson, an eccentric scientist who has a long history of controversial entanglements with figures on the fringe of accepted research, OISM describes itself as "a small research institute" that studies "biochemistry, diagnostic medicine, nutrition, preventive medicine and the molecular biology of aging."

"In reality, neither Robinson's paper nor OISM's petition drive had anything to do with the National Academy of Sciences, which first heard about the petition when its members began calling to ask if the NAS had taken a stand against the Kyoto treaty. Robinson was not even a climate scientist. He was a biochemist with no published research in the field of climatology, and his paper had never been subjected to peer review by anyone with training in the field. In fact, the paper had never been accepted for publication anywhere, let alone in the NAS Proceedings. It was self-published by Robinson, who did the typesetting himself on his own computer.

None of the coauthors of "Environmental Effects of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide" had any more standing than Robinson himself as a climate change researcher. They included Robinson's 22-year-old son, Zachary (home-schooled by his dad), along with astrophysicists Sallie Baliunas and Willie Soon. Both Baliunas and Soon worked with Frederick Seitz at the George C. Marshall Institute, a Washington, D.C., think tank where Seitz served as executive director. Funded by a number of right-wing foundations, including Scaife and Bradley, the George C. Marshall Institute does not conduct any original research."

I find it incredible that anyone could read the history and qualifications of the authors and the status of the institute and then give this any credence (unless you believed it anyway, in which case - please have your debates elsewhere).

In posting this I am NOT saying that the Greenhouse Effect is confirmed (although the skeptics are a fringe minority), nor that human actions are responsible. I would just like to see threads like this moved to the appropriate place.

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/15/2004 3:05:01 AM

wodin

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I never read the article.

There are always sceptics. I remember reading a few articles where scientists in their mind proved global warming didnt exist. A freinf read it and said "See I told you its all rubbish, its just scare mongering besdies who would complian about having a hot summer and a tan"?

"Me" I replied. I hate the summer to hot. Im a autumn and spring man.

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/15/2004 3:28:51 AM

Hunpecked

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quote:

ORIGINAL: wodin

The USA pulling out of the treaty is appaling and to be honest an utter disgrace. Though it was obvious a man of oil wasnt going to go along with it.

When a "sense of the Senate" resolution against the Kyoto treaty passed 95-0 in 1997, President Clinton didn't even bother submitting the treaty to the Senate.

http://www.nationalcenter.org/KyotoSenate.html

As I recall, Clinton wasn't a "man of oil."

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/15/2004 4:23:44 AM

Les_the_Sarge_9_1

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Kyoto is a crock, there I said it.

Kyoto will not fix anything. No better than a band aid for a traumatic amputation.

Read enough of that link Kakoda, to realise, the people in question are really just funny.

Did you know a beer a day is good for you? It is. 24 is not though.

Did you know chocolate has an ingredient in it that fights plaque?. Pity everything else in it causes plaque.

My concern is that we know what makes the onset of an Ice Age occur. We might not know exactly when the next one will happen, but I find it odd no one cares to do anything to avoid assisting those conditions.

The chances are we will see global drought create severe political turmoil that will result in a major global conflict BEFORE we see an Ice Age.

We are also risking a major incident based on a scientist playing with DNA research that gets out of hand. I don't say don't fiddle with DNA, I am just saying don't pretend it's just about making bigger strawberries.

I read an alarming article in a Geographic a year or so back. We better start looking into the status of the world's underground auquifers. Because if the article was correct, we will be dealing with a lot of problems, and in our life times, not our kids.

< Message edited by Les_the_Sarge_9_1 -- 6/14/2004 9:23:57 PM >

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/15/2004 5:03:19 AM

heintz28

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<SARCASM>
The constant charring of the enemy bodies, with the use of incendiaries and flamethrowers, is of great concern to us.
They do tend to put off large quantities of CO, HS and CO2 fuminations.
Therefore,
Let us all join hands and swear an oath... Never to use the Flamethrower in anger (or to make smoke screens).
The Germans , of course, are exempt.

</SARCASM>
Sorry ... a lurker cant resist sometimes

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/15/2004 7:21:53 AM

Mangudai

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It's an excellent site (I just bookmarked it). The research looks good, the tone is sober and moderate. Yep, we are increasing greenhouses gases by a tiny fraction. Yep, the Earth could warm up a few degrees (2-4C) in the next century, if the cooling trend we are in now reverses. Maybe some bad things will happen, some good things will happen too, like fewer crop killing frosts during the growing season. But, overall I don't think it's worth panicking about, or giving up fossil fuels just yet.

Another thing, anybody who lives in a high humidity area knows, the main affects of the greenhouse effect are felt at night. Damn it's hot and muggy in the midwest right now! I wish I was in Arizona where it cools off at night.

BTW: I'm not sure how this relates to SPWAW. Did this become the unnofficial AOW?

BTW:

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/15/2004 2:10:56 PM

Les_the_Sarge_9_1

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Nah not AoW, just some guys discussing something OTHER than 8.2 for a bit hehe.

It would have to involve someones religious views, or someone slagging a politician to make it AoW material.

Hey I can handle at least one non wargaming thread in here if it is at least kept interesting eh.

So, I ask again, anyone know anything about our planets underground aquifiers? Or more directly, has anyone been following the situation with our farmers out in the grain growing areas?

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/15/2004 2:44:49 PM

Thayne

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The earth has an emission spectrum. In it, the earth emits a lot of energy in the infrared range.

CO2 has an absorbtion spectrum. One of the bands in that absorbtion spectrum is in the infrared range.

Increasing CO2 concentrations will absorb extra energy.

These bands cannot become saturated because the molecule has the ability to absorb energy 'near' the ideal frequency, and will do so with increasing frequency as the amount of gas increases.

The formulae for this are well known and fixed. We are talking about laws of nature here.

A doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial level means an increase energy of about 4 watts per square meter (column of air to the troposphere). To dissipate this extra energy and restore equilibrium, the temperature of the atmosphere would have to increase about 3 degrees C.

Feedback mechanisms complicate the picture. Some add to the final total (increased temps mean increase H2O concentrations as well, and H2O is a greenhouse gas), while others subtract from the total (increased H2O may mean additional clouds, which reflect more solar energy back into space).

However, nothing short of magic can affect the basic component.

You have to believe in magic to believe that the CO2 concentration can double, and this will have no effect on the amount of energy the atmosphere will absorb.

Now, back to the war.

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/15/2004 2:54:54 PM

robot

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what the hell has global warming or this thread got to do with wargaming. I thought i was over on aol or something. For goodness sake were tryin to discuss something here that wont happen for over a million years. My line and your line of kin will be long gone. Gunny im sorry but i thought you would have stepped in long ago on this. This should have been stopped days ago in my opinion.

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/15/2004 3:47:23 PM

Charles2222

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I'm afraid it's residue from the AoW forum going thankfully belly-up.

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/15/2004 4:49:26 PM

Les_the_Sarge_9_1

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Robot, if you don't like the thread, then why are you in it :)

As for millions of years?

God that has to be the lamest response I have seen yet.

Were you ever present in your geography classes at school?

Are you guys really that desperate to argue about 8.2, that you won't let a few of us take a breather with something else in here?

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/15/2004 5:29:31 PM

Mangudai

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quote:

I read an alarming article in a Geographic a year or so back. We better start looking into the status of the world's underground auquifers. Because if the article was correct, we will be dealing with a lot of problems, and in our life times, not our kids.

Yeah, in the western great plains they water their fields from underground aquafers. They're being depleted faster than they are refilled. Eventually, there won't be enough water to maintain current farming methods. It could happen in our lifetimes.

Another thing which will happen (I don't know if it will be our lifetimes, but it might) is a magnetic pole flip. This is quite alarming. But just because you can't blame people for their polluting lifestyles, it gets much less attention.

quote:

The strength of the Earth's magnetic field is known to drop during "magnetic reversals", when the north and south poles swap places. Records of the field direction, frozen into sediments laid down on the seabed, show that the magnetic field has reversed hundreds of times in the past 400 million years.

In normal circumstances, the magnetic field protects the Earth's surface from dangerous high-energy particles, including particles from the sun and cosmic rays from deep space.

But as the field switches polarity, it can drop to below 10 per cent of its normal strength for thousands of years. Such a weakened field would allow lethal radiation to reach the Earth's surface, with potentially disastrous consequences for the atmosphere, the climate and particularly for life.

In a paper to be published in the journal Astronomy and Astrophysics, Guido Birk and Harald Lesch of the University of Munich, Germany, and Christian Konz of the Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics in Garching report an investigation of exactly what happens when the field is drastically reduced or vanishes altogether.

Their simulations show that the solar wind - the million-kilometre-an-hour stream of hydrogen and helium nuclei from the sun - wraps itself around the Earth in a way that induces a magnetic field in the ionosphere as strong as the original field.

"We were quite surprised about its effectiveness," Lesch says.

The news comes at an opportune moment. The Earth's magnetic field is showing worrying signs that it is about to reverse again. Not only has the magnetic north pole wandered by 1100 kilometres in the past 200 years, but its strength is dropping at a rate of 5 per cent a century.

"This is the fastest decrease since the last reversal 730,000 years ago," Lesch says.

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/15/2004 6:44:29 PM

Les_the_Sarge_9_1

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What is worrisome about the aquifers issue, is it is global.

We might be heading for the mother of all shocking global crop disasters.

What is annoying, is the solution is so simple. Tell farmers to start using trickle irrigation. It returns a 25% crop yield increase, and it massively cuts back on water waste.

Yeah installing trickle based systems costs money. Seems everything costs money.

Well the money we dumped on farmers last year, is going to do squat for them this year. And it won't be able to do squat next year.
Money doesn't water crops, water does.
If we must dump money on farmers, at least tell them they can only have the money if they use it to save the water.
Otherwise, we might just as well burn the money.

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/16/2004 12:30:05 AM

Mangudai

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Here in Illinois (and many other Eastern states) we don't use irrigation. We use drainage to get rid of all that extra rainwater. I'm surprised if you need irrigation in Ontario. You're right that trickle systems are much better than sprinkler systems that waste most of the water to evaporation. I was just out west, and much of southern Colorado is switching to trickle systems. Utah is still using sprinklers and they can't get enough water, with the 6 year drought they've been having. Most of Canada (with the possible exception of Alberta) should be fine with all the lakes you have. I heard Canada has 20% of the Earth's freshwater.

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/16/2004 3:06:55 AM

Les_the_Sarge_9_1

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Ontario is indeed "wet".

But I was talking about the prairies. Ontario is not responsible for what is basically our nations crop wealth.

The only thing we grow in Ontario, is bugs trees and politicians. At least the trees are useful hehe.

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RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/16/2004 4:20:12 AM

Hunpecked

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kokoda

I find it incredible that anyone could read the history and qualifications of the authors and the status of the institute and then give this any credence (unless you believed it anyway, in which case - please have your debates elsewhere).

Yes, Kokoda's quote from PR Watch is a slick piece of propaganda, isn't it? OISM is headed by "an eccentric scientist" who has "controversial entanglements with figures on the fringe of accepted science." Smearing the guy is certainly a lot easier than refuting his claims, isn't it?

In truth, some of the stuff in the paper is pretty iffy, especially the part about carbon dioxide stimulation of plant growth (not as simple as presented). In other areas, he's on more solid ground, nor is he alone in his views. I certainly don't expect the Thermohaline Conveyor to shut down any time soon, geologically speaking.

I will, however, eventually see "The Day After Tomorrow," if only for the special effects and the laughs. I've seen people chased by cars, tanks (note: on-topic post!), maniacs, monsters, and robots, but I have never seen anyone chased down a hallway by an ice age (great preview)!

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Post #: 27

RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/16/2004 11:22:22 AM

Kokoda

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The quote Hunpecked extracted is all my own work, not from the website I cited. The approach of the website I cited is not my preference, but it shows how important it is to check the credentials of those who are presenting themselves as authoritative figures - and how easy it is to check.

My point is that when considering scientific debate, the credibility, knowledge and credentials of the author is important. So is peer review in a scientific journal. This article purports to represent scientific research, and is presented in a manner that implies it is a reprint from a highly regarded scientific journal.

If someone (say the authors of this article) with no experience in warfare started to tell AmmoSgt (for example) about weapon characteristics we would probably give him little credibility, particularly if the transparent purpose was to engage in political debate. Here's an example...

The US performance in Iraq is clearly a total fabrication because research has shown that an armoured column could not have travelled at more than 2 mph during the time of the war. In addition it is well established that Sherman tanks cannot fly!

We would see through this combination of true, but irrelevant facts, and gross misrepresentation, because we know something about the subject, but those who would like to believe the first contention - "...a total fabrication..." and don't know anything about the subject, may well give this credence as evidence.

And as for the "CO2 makes plants grow more", that's akin to saying that the introduction of the Zebra Mussel into the Great Lakes is a good thing because it is a significant potential food source, ignoring all the other effects.

...and I WON'T be going to see The Day after Tomorrow, because it is Chicken Little scaremongering and I expect it would just irritate me. These issues are much more complicated and serious than this. Just ask your Bangladeshi and Kiribati friends.

Still, as the economists say...If we stuff up this world..."the market will provide"

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Post #: 28

RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/16/2004 2:37:34 PM

Les_the_Sarge_9_1

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quote:

...and I WON'T be going to see The Day after Tomorrow, because it is Chicken Little scaremongering

You DO understand though eh, that if 9 out of 10 doom and gloom notions are pure bull, but the 10th one isn't, then you are really screwed when that 10th example gets you eh.

You probably don't have car insurance with your attitude. After all, it is unlikely you will ever need it. right?

The difference between myself and yourself is plainly apparent.

I am unwilling to just dismiss Global Warming as a problem, on the basis that 9 out of 10 don't know how to discuss the matter.

_____________________________

I LIKE that my life bothers them,
Why should I be the only one bothered by it eh.

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Post #: 29

RE: Concerned about global warming? - 6/16/2004 5:56:01 PM

Mangudai

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The article does cite 66 references from academic journals. So the data has been peer reviewed. I don't think the credibility issues are enough to dismiss what Robinson says. Of course, you should never accept the opinion of one "expert" without getting much more background knowledge.

Regarding the claim "CO2 makes plants grow"; the research I've seen says this is significant in tropical areas like the Amazon, but less significant in other areas. Here at the University of Illinois we have several greenhouses filled with several times the normal level of CO2, studying this exact question. (I know I could find journal articles, if I look for them). Basically plants need light, water, and CO2. In tropical rainforests like the Amazon, CO2 is the limiting factor and more CO2 stimulates growth. Where water is scarce, the extra CO2 makes no difference. In the vast forests of Canada and Russia, light is usually the limiting factor, extra CO2 and water make almost no difference.

(in reply to Kokoda)

Post #: 30