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RE: What were they thinking? - 8/6/2004 2:13:28 AM

Blackhorse

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quote:

I don't know for sure, but I bet that clerk probably ended up performing ritual suicide over the larger dishonour of failing his Emperor than whether his typing skills sucked.

IIRC (and I'm going from memory here - trust at your own risk) the problem was that the message from Tokyo had such a high security classification that only one of the high-muckety-mucks* in the embassy could decode it / type it out, instead of the clerks who were actually skilled and practiced in that sort of thing.

Too much security can cause as many problems as too little.

* = rough translation of his actual title

< Message edited by Blackhorse -- 8/6/2004 12:14:15 AM >

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Post #: 61

RE: What were they thinking? - 8/6/2004 3:21:11 AM

Cap Mandrake

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Neuromancer;

Excellent post. You are right..we do have the retrospectoscope on, but even if the DOW had been delivered 1 hr before the PH attack, I still can't see how the US could accept the death of THOUSANDS of it's sailors without an eventual destruction of the Japanese military. Anything else would have been political suicide for ANY politician to suggest. The destruction of old BB's and some holes in Hickam Field were really like pinpricks. The death of thousands of sailors roused from their bunks was, on the other hand, an epochal event, with or without a DOW. Thousands of US POW's (including nurses) and many more thousands of Phillipino POW's marched across Bataan could do nothing but anger and give purpose to the US War effort. It was a done deal the second the first torpedo hit the water in PH. Regardless of what happened to the Enterprise, Saratoga, Yorktown and Wasp..there would be Essex class carriers launched like model T's and Corsairs to numerous to count with well trained pilots and B-29's in the thousands. Not to mention the Manhattan project which would ramp up to one weapon a WEEK by late '45.

A more interesting question is what might have happened had the Japanese confined their attack to British and Dutch resources. Quite possibly, the US might have entered the war 2 or 3 months later with better preparation, but that seems to me to be a much more open question. The possibility of continued US neutrality seems more likely than the preposterous idea that FDR would ask for peace after an attack on US interests.

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Post #: 62

RE: What were they thinking? - 8/6/2004 4:56:16 AM

Williamb

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I think a couple of incidents can show you how they were thinking in those times.

For the Japanese in the 1920's there was an effort to sign alot of peace and armament treaties between Global powers at this time. Key for them was the 1925 Treaty of Washington that set limits on the number of ships any nation could have. (mostly battleships)

I think this is one think that the Japanese saw later as being weak. They felt that the West was so willing to cut deals to prevent war. And then to see the US sit out WWII in Europe year after year have to wonder if they got the feeling that the US would really fight. (again ccan see in WWI that we waited almost to the end to join the fight)

I think too often many have underestimated the US's willingness to fight. even in Veitnam it lasted over ten years and more often than not the US military won most of the battles.

In the US the incident that comes to my mind about a sign of the times is the broadcast of the book "War of the Worlds"

Just think a radio program about an invasion of the US from the planet mars was SO convincing that thousands called or fled into the roads to excape. War fever was so rampant that many believed that war COULD come to the US.

I think the talks about the war in europe already had the US citicens hyped about the possibility of war. It wasnt hard to see where the world was going in 1930s and maybe thats why they are the greatest generation because they knew the hardships and faced them down.

(in reply to Blackhorse)

Post #: 63

RE: What were they thinking? - 8/6/2004 6:37:01 AM

BartM

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It is easy for us to sit back in the 21st century and look at the mistakes and blunders as well as the spectactular conflicts of 60 years ago. We can analyze and re-analyze this period, hence this game

Japan needed to make the US sue for peace as soon as possible, as the US as well as other coountries were restricting Japan's flow of resources as well as stopping them from expanding their borders, although "WE" did it, we were not going to let Japan, which infuriated them.

Boycotting is a double edge, and one we really were not ready to wield, as Japan took us up on it. Looking back, if the Japaneese Carriers would have refueled, NOT disengaged from Pearl harbor... who knows... if they could have damaged the fuel storage areas more, wrecked havok in the shipping AND caught the two US carriers...again, who knows (this was the hope of Japan). A fast, devistating assault which would pin us against the wall...

not too long ago, someone else made this mistake in New York, thinking we would simply close up, throw our hands up and say ok, we give up....

IF the brittish destroyers did not damage U-110 in the Atlantic, and capture the german codes, again... who knows.... except, it was almost sealed that Britian would have had to sue for peace with germany as they simply were being cut off from the world and had no where else to turn. ... again.. who knows...

If Japan had landed on Midway during the pearl harbor attack (within two weeks), again, who knows... the more pressure you place on a country, the better your chances, but each time, Japan attacked, pulled back and waited, (again internal conflicts with the Army and the Navy), let's be thankful that Japan had internal problems, instead of working together to achieve the end result. Theirs Subs start wrecking our supplies, cutting off Austrailia (like germany did to Britian)...

*shrugs*

So many views, all are good :) just remember, we're looking backwards and picking it apart, that's easy... look forward and do the same thing

(in reply to brisd)

Post #: 64

RE: What were they thinking? - 8/6/2004 10:40:40 AM

Grotius

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Yep, hindsight is 20/20. Most of the great powers underestimated the United States before World War II. Not just Japan, but also Germany and Italy. Sure, Yamamoto recognized that it was hopeless, but it doesn't shock me that others in Japan had a different view. Also, as someone pointed out, in the fall of 1941 the fall of the USSR looked like a realistic possibility. Of course, if that had happened, one has to believe Japan would've struck north, not south.

Another view on all this is that the sooner the Axis struck, the better. Hitler seemed to understand this: the longer he waited, the more time for the Western democracies to catch up militarily.

What I've always wondered is what would've happened had Japan struck first at Malaya or the DEI. FDR had tried to place tripwires that would've brought us in the war in those events, but there wouldn't have been the same public anger to avenge a PH strike. And it would've been much harder to declare war when isolationists would be pointing out that we were fighting to help defend British imperial possessions.

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Post #: 65

RE: What were they thinking? - 8/6/2004 12:45:25 PM

BartM

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Exactly :) I have said it elsewhere here before, what an amazing, horrific time that was. Three completely seperate powers, (four if you count Italy which really should be), all wanting world domination, and all working together to overthrow their neighbors. You couldn't ask for a worse nightmare.

(in reply to Grotius)

Post #: 66

RE: What were they thinking? - 8/6/2004 3:11:38 PM

DJAndrews

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Caught an interesting show on a public broadcast station last night. I was essentially a collection of colour film clips from Japan from about 1930 until circa 1944. Included voice over comments from young soldiors and civilians. One of their main points was something we tend to overlook.

The relious belief in the divinity of the Emperor ran very deep among the general population. One woman was quoted as saying the if a Europeon king were to behave badly he would be overthrown for the good of the country. In contrast the Japanese were prepared to sacrifice themselves and their country for the sake of the Emperor. It was the basis for their culture and way of life.

Add to this "warrior code" (leader claimed that Japan had not been defeated since its founding 2600 years before) and truly amazing censorship (Midway was celebrated as a major victory) and you have a situation where the people actual believe they can win against insurmountable odds.

Kind of like 13 dinky colonies having the audacity to take on the British Empire. Based on an idea?

(in reply to BartM)

Post #: 67

RE: What were they thinking? - 8/6/2004 4:36:23 PM

Cap Mandrake

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Exactly, like I said. The suspension of rational thought.

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Post #: 68

RE: What were they thinking? - 8/6/2004 4:46:40 PM

ZOOMIE1980

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Grotius

Yep, hindsight is 20/20. Most of the great powers underestimated the United States before World War II. Not just Japan, but also Germany and Italy. Sure, Yamamoto recognized that it was hopeless, but it doesn't shock me that others in Japan had a different view. Also, as someone pointed out, in the fall of 1941 the fall of the USSR looked like a realistic possibility. Of course, if that had happened, one has to believe Japan would've struck north, not south.

Another view on all this is that the sooner the Axis struck, the better. Hitler seemed to understand this: the longer he waited, the more time for the Western democracies to catch up militarily.

What I've always wondered is what would've happened had Japan struck first at Malaya or the DEI. FDR had tried to place tripwires that would've brought us in the war in those events, but there wouldn't have been the same public anger to avenge a PH strike. And it would've been much harder to declare war when isolationists would be pointing out that we were fighting to help defend British imperial possessions.

Why would they have struck north? We know today Siberia is loaded with natural resources, I'm not sure they really knew that back then. And even if they suspected rich natural resources to be present there, they were completely undeveloped and in a very harsh climate. They remain largely undeveloped even to this day. The resources in the south were already developed with infrastructure in place to exploit them.

< Message edited by ZOOMIE1980 -- 8/6/2004 2:47:50 PM >

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Post #: 69

RE: What were they thinking? - 8/6/2004 6:32:04 PM

mdiehl

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quote:

For Pearl Harbour, the Emperor had commanded that the DoW to the US was to be delivered an hour before the attack on PH was scheduled to occur.

In some ways a quintessentially Japanese plan of action -- overly complicated and too dependent on the perfect timing in the execution of the operation.

< Message edited by mdiehl -- 8/6/2004 4:32:17 PM >

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RE: What were they thinking? - 8/6/2004 11:49:45 PM

SirRodneyOfGout

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake

The "cultural myopia" theory seems quite plausible to me

IMHO the effects of cultural differences between Western and Japanese tend to be exagerated. The intent of cultural studies (i.e. Ruth Benedict's Chrysanthemum and the Sword) was to gain understanding, but instead the findings were used to exagerate even further the cultural differences. For example, yes, the Japanese were racist, but that is an accusation that can be levelled against any nation of the period (including the U.S.). The reason for much of the heightened exaggeration can be attributed to the age old tactic of accusing the enemy of being less than human, less moral than "us". My point isn't to get into a match of this attrocity beats that attrocity, as the Japanese attrocities are well known and are deplorable. My point is that this 'holier-than-thou' attitude can sometimes cloud historical inquiry.

Your basic question is "what were they thinking?", as if they werent thinking at all. My answer is that they were thinking, and because the events and outcome have become so ingrained it is often taken for granted that the cultural differences explain the apparent irrationality. I believe there are historical answers to the question that when looked at from the Japanese perspective are indeed rational.

Most histories of WW2 tend to thematically lump the Japanese aggressions in China along with the rise of totalitarianism in Europe. While cronologically concurrent the motivations were very different. Because Japans relations with China are not usually covered in these histories much of the explanatory background is missing.

There's another gap in most standard histories. Few bother explaining how and why the U.S. had bases in far flung locations like the Phillipines, Wake or Pearl Harbor, or why the U.S. had any interest whatsoever in events on the Asian continent. There's nothing sinister in the answers to these questions (unless, unlike myself, you believe in "imperialist" America), but the persistent gap is questionable. It is important to keep in mind how this American advance into the Pacific was perceived by the Japanese. It is also important to keep in mind that Japan was literally forced to open its doors to western commercial interests at gunpoint, by an American squadron.

If wars were simply an exercise of the population + production formula then the history of the world would be very different. There are many examples where this simple equation did not result in victory. The example of the American Civil War has been raised in this thread, but I submit that there is another lesson to be drawn from it. Despite overwhelming material and manpower superiority, it took the Union 5 years to finally defeat the Confederates. There were many people in the North that did not believe the war could be won, or that it was even worth fighting. And the leaders of the Confederate States took the risk of war and gambled that the Union would eventually give up. It didn't, but the outcome was in doubt for a long time, and it is possible that a change in political leadership might have led to a negotiated settlement.

Small nations will always look for ways to beat the odds, particularly if they see an issue as a matter of survival. Backing down in China was not simply a matter of losing face. Historically China was the bitter enemy of Japan, and a united China would have had an overhwelming superiority. Keeping China divided, and preventing any of the Western powers from gaining the upper hand, was seen as insuring Japan's security. Likewise securing sources of raw materials was seen as the only way of guarunteeing that Japan would remain a sovereign nation. What other Asian nation had been able to resist Western intervention, or at the very least commercial dominance?

Please don't take me as an apologist for the Japanese. But if anyone wants to seriously understand where they were coming from, a reading of history from their perspective is as important, if not more so, than an understanding of their culture.

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Post #: 71

RE: What were they thinking? - 8/7/2004 12:08:47 AM

barbarrossa

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I'm sure this work has been mentioned before, but Hoyt's "Japan's War" is a source that details the political situation that prevailed in pre-war years. Reading it right now.

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Post #: 72

RE: What were they thinking? - 8/7/2004 12:15:31 AM

Bandkanon

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Blackhorse

quote:

I don't know for sure, but I bet that clerk probably ended up performing ritual suicide over the larger dishonour of failing his Emperor than whether his typing skills sucked.

IIRC (and I'm going from memory here - trust at your own risk) the problem was that the message from Tokyo had such a high security classification that only one of the high-muckety-mucks* in the embassy could decode it / type it out, instead of the clerks who were actually skilled and practiced in that sort of thing.

Too much security can cause as many problems as too little.

* = rough translation of his actual title

Actually what happened was that the diplomatic message was to be sent in 13 parts with the 13th part stating the cessation of diplomatic contact which means that there's going to be war between the two countries. The Japanese ambassadors in DC had no idea that the 13th part contained the declaration of war but were expecting something big to happen. The translators/decrptionists in the embassy received the first 12 parts on the 6th and kept on waiting for the 13th the whole night. They gave up waiting for it and decided to go partying because of a coworker was leaving. The 13th part then came in sometime in the night and by the time it arrived none of the decryptionists were ready. Finally, IIRC by mid morning they had it decrypted but then the ambassador thought it would be unprofessional to give a diplomatic message in 13 parts. He decided to type the thing himself since none of the professional typists were in on a Sunday. He and his assistant made so many mistakes that they decided to retype the whole thing from scratch again. By the time they arrived to see Hull all huffing and puffing it was already too late.

(in reply to Blackhorse)

Post #: 73

RE: What were they thinking? - 8/7/2004 12:19:41 AM

anarchyintheuk

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quote:

ORIGINAL: neuromancer

For Pearl Harbour, the Emperor had commanded that the DoW to the US was to be delivered an hour before the attack on PH was scheduled to occur. The Emperor had not suggested or recommended the action, commanded. It was important to him, he might have suspected what would happen, or at the very least it would be a stain on the honour of Bushido to perform a sneak attack instead of a surprise attack.

So as I said, it wasn't supposed to be a sneak attack. A clerk in the Japanese embassy had so much trouble decoding, translating, and typing out the message that - to avoid dishonour - he decided to redo it, and thus the DoW arrived an hour after the attack.

I don't know for sure, but I bet that clerk probably ended up performing ritual suicide over the larger dishonour of failing his Emperor than whether his typing skills sucked.

This has been mentioned before in this forum and I don't know that it matters but whatever you want to call what was delivered to Hull by the Japanese negotiators it certainly wasn't a declaration of war. After reading it you can best describe it as a cutting of diplomatic ties . . . certainly a prelude to war but not a declaration of it. It may be splitting hairs but even if it was a DOW and delivered on time i don't think it would have mattered to the american public. Delivering a DOW one hour before an attack that has obviously been in planning for weeks if not months and in process while diplomatic negotiations theoretically had chance to succeed would have been as transparent at the time as it is in hindsight.

(in reply to neuromancer)

Post #: 74

RE: What were they thinking? - 8/7/2004 12:22:56 AM

Bandkanon

Posts: 155
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From: Hengchun, Taiwan
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quote:

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

quote:

ORIGINAL: neuromancer

For Pearl Harbour, the Emperor had commanded that the DoW to the US was to be delivered an hour before the attack on PH was scheduled to occur. The Emperor had not suggested or recommended the action, commanded. It was important to him, he might have suspected what would happen, or at the very least it would be a stain on the honour of Bushido to perform a sneak attack instead of a surprise attack.

So as I said, it wasn't supposed to be a sneak attack. A clerk in the Japanese embassy had so much trouble decoding, translating, and typing out the message that - to avoid dishonour - he decided to redo it, and thus the DoW arrived an hour after the attack.

I don't know for sure, but I bet that clerk probably ended up performing ritual suicide over the larger dishonour of failing his Emperor than whether his typing skills sucked.

This has been mentioned before in this forum and I don't know that it matters but whatever you want to call what was delivered to Hull by the Japanese negotiators it certainly wasn't a declaration of war. After reading it you can best describe it as a cutting of diplomatic ties . . . certainly a prelude to war but not a declaration of it. It may be splitting hairs but even if it was a DOW and delivered on time i don't think it would have mattered to the american public. Delivering a DOW one hour before an attack that has obviously been in planning for weeks if not months and in process while diplomatic negotiations theoretically had chance to succeed would have been as transparent at the time as it is in hindsight.

I think the Emperor and the High Command felt it was very important to not make it seem like the Japanese are making a surprise attack. They already got a bad rep for it at Port Arthur during the Russo-Japanese War.

(in reply to anarchyintheuk)

Post #: 75

RE: What were they thinking? - 8/7/2004 1:15:54 AM

Blackhorse

Posts: 1983
Joined: 8/20/2000
From: Eastern US
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bandkanon

quote:

ORIGINAL: Blackhorse

quote:

I don't know for sure, but I bet that clerk probably ended up performing ritual suicide over the larger dishonour of failing his Emperor than whether his typing skills sucked.

IIRC (and I'm going from memory here - trust at your own risk) the problem was that the message from Tokyo had such a high security classification that only one of the high-muckety-mucks* in the embassy could decode it / type it out, instead of the clerks who were actually skilled and practiced in that sort of thing.

Too much security can cause as many problems as too little.

* = rough translation of his actual title

Actually what happened was that the diplomatic message was to be sent in 13 parts with the 13th part stating the cessation of diplomatic contact which means that there's going to be war between the two countries. The Japanese ambassadors in DC had no idea that the 13th part contained the declaration of war but were expecting something big to happen. The translators/decrptionists in the embassy received the first 12 parts on the 6th and kept on waiting for the 13th the whole night. They gave up waiting for it and decided to go partying because of a coworker was leaving. The 13th part then came in sometime in the night and by the time it arrived none of the decryptionists were ready. Finally, IIRC by mid morning they had it decrypted but then the ambassador thought it would be unprofessional to give a diplomatic message in 13 parts. He decided to type the thing himself since none of the professional typists were in on a Sunday. He and his assistant made so many mistakes that they decided to retype the whole thing from scratch again. By the time they arrived to see Hull all huffing and puffing it was already too late.

Thanks for the correction. Reading this forum can be educational as well as entertaining!

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Post #: 76

RE: What were they thinking? - 8/7/2004 1:28:30 AM

anarchyintheuk

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Good point. However, not declaring war didn't necessarily prevent them from invading manchuria (1931 I think), china (1937), or russia (38 and 39?) without one either. You could make also case that they invaded french indo-china. Finally, did they bother declaring war on on the brits or the dutch before attacking them?

(in reply to Bandkanon)

Post #: 77

RE: What were they thinking? - 8/7/2004 3:01:12 AM

Bandkanon

Posts: 155
Joined: 4/25/2001
From: Hengchun, Taiwan
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quote:

ORIGINAL: anarchyintheuk

Good point. However, not declaring war didn't necessarily prevent them from invading manchuria (1931 I think), china (1937), or russia (38 and 39?) without one either. You could make also case that they invaded french indo-china. Finally, did they bother declaring war on on the brits or the dutch before attacking them?

Very true on all of the situations you listed. I think the best explanation I can come up with is that the Japanese really thought that attacking Pearl Harbor was the big one. They realize that they are attacking a country that will definitely mean war without an immediate end. Manchuria was not a full scale invasion against China but against a northern warlord who was not even part of the KMT at the time. The Japanese blew up the guy's train. China in 1937 was supposed to be a result of the Marco Polo Bridge, where radicals on both sides thought that it was a good time to duke it out in the open. The Mongolia and Nimnohon ( I think its spelled that) incidents were considered to be localized border skirmishes, although at quite a large scale. Both sides were able to pull back after a couple of months.

However, PH was going to be the big one and everybody knew it. It was going to be a point of no return and the Japanese thought that its best to not push their moral luck on a surprise attack. The invasion of Burma and the SRI was assumed to be part of PH, and the absorption of French - Indochina was pretty much a like a bully taking candy from a baby.

(in reply to anarchyintheuk)

Post #: 78

RE: What were they thinking? - 8/7/2004 3:02:37 AM

Bandkanon

Posts: 155
Joined: 4/25/2001
From: Hengchun, Taiwan
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Blackhorse

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bandkanon

quote:

ORIGINAL: Blackhorse

quote:

I don't know for sure, but I bet that clerk probably ended up performing ritual suicide over the larger dishonour of failing his Emperor than whether his typing skills sucked.

IIRC (and I'm going from memory here - trust at your own risk) the problem was that the message from Tokyo had such a high security classification that only one of the high-muckety-mucks* in the embassy could decode it / type it out, instead of the clerks who were actually skilled and practiced in that sort of thing.

Too much security can cause as many problems as too little.

* = rough translation of his actual title

Actually what happened was that the diplomatic message was to be sent in 13 parts with the 13th part stating the cessation of diplomatic contact which means that there's going to be war between the two countries. The Japanese ambassadors in DC had no idea that the 13th part contained the declaration of war but were expecting something big to happen. The translators/decrptionists in the embassy received the first 12 parts on the 6th and kept on waiting for the 13th the whole night. They gave up waiting for it and decided to go partying because of a coworker was leaving. The 13th part then came in sometime in the night and by the time it arrived none of the decryptionists were ready. Finally, IIRC by mid morning they had it decrypted but then the ambassador thought it would be unprofessional to give a diplomatic message in 13 parts. He decided to type the thing himself since none of the professional typists were in on a Sunday. He and his assistant made so many mistakes that they decided to retype the whole thing from scratch again. By the time they arrived to see Hull all huffing and puffing it was already too late.

Thanks for the correction. Reading this forum can be educational as well as entertaining!

Thanks, Blackhorse.

(in reply to Blackhorse)

Post #: 79

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