TIMJOT
Posts: 1822
Joined: 4/30/2001 Status: offline
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quote:
Originally posted by chanman: Hi all, TIMJOT, remember it is not just the PI that would get reinforced, but also the islands along the way. IJN would be cramped if they had to deal with a reinforced Guam (a couple of additional airfields, shore defenses, put a couple of divisions there, some bombers, some fighters, etc.), a reinforced Wake (build out the airfields, more bombers, fighters, a Marine division, some real shore defenses, subs) and a reinforced Midway (see Wake just previous). One of the reasons that the PI campaign was "easy" for the Japanese to prosecute was the ease that they were able to isolate them. Guam has to be reduced, spam and all, before the Japanese can isolate PI and later turn their attention South towards Australia and New Guinea.
I admit that Guam would be also heavily reinforced, but one only has to look at a map and see that Guam is even more isolated and vulnerable than to PI. Its the only island in the Marianas not controlled by the Japanese. Its surrounded on all sides from major Japanese bases on Siapan, Tinian, Yap and Ulihti. There is a limit to how many planes that could operate there due to its relative small size. Likewise I think Guam would sink before you could cram 2 divisions on it. That being said, I agree it would be much more difficult operation, but there is simply no place to hide and in the end Guam is still a goner eventually. A reinforced Wake on the other hand, I agree would be too far away and too close to US bases on Midway and Hawaii for the Japanese mount a successful invasion. However Wakes main value is as a leg of the air bridge to the PI. Without Guam this is nullified.
Regarding the other operations you speak of. Remeber we are talking about the US not being in the war up to then. So New Guinea is most likely already secured as part of DEI campaign. Austrailia was never seriously considered a realistic objective, but if you are talking about operations against Fiji and New Calendonia to cut off Austrailia from the US. Then you also have to consider that even any Jminor apanese advances in those areas would have the added effect of compelling the US to divert considerable resources to that area at the expense of the PI, becuase the US could ill afford the lifeline to Austrailia to be severed.
Furthermore, who ever said the PI campaign was easy? Of all the operations undertook by the Japanese it turned out to be by far the most difficult. It took 5 months to do what it only took several weeks to do in Malaya,DEI and Burma. That being said I still think the Japanese eventually win a reinforce PI. Remember we are talking a USN cira 1942 that would be incabable of taking the IJN head on, on anything close to equal terms.
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