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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames

 
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RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 7/4/2006 1:37:59 PM   
Neilster


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quote:

ORIGINAL: pad152

Speaking of WITP, two things that help.

Randomness

One thing that helps make the AI playable is the randomness of combat, sometimes very strange things happen like a (PT boat sinks a battleship). Yes strange things did and do happen in war, sure some people complain this is impossible and should never happen. Yet it's things like this that adds that uncertianty to war not found in other war games that helps keep it fresh. You would never find this level randomness in a board or John Tiller game.


Fog of War and Combat reports

Combat reports in WITP are notorious inaccurate, this seems to drive new players crazy (how come those 6 Zero's shot down all of my B-17's, this must be a bug). Sometimes it's weeks in the game before you really know if you sunk that battleship or carrier. Just like in real war, combat reports are almost always incorrect. This really adds that fog of war that's missing in all board war games and most computer war games.

These are two things that only can be done with a computer war game. To many ports of board games to computer make the mistake to only give the player the same old dice results for combat, and limit fog of war to what they can or can't see on the map. This makes a lot of combat in war games boring/dry and limits the buyers to only those true die hards of the board game.



Welcome pad152!

Unusual combat results do occur in WiF. Polish fighters can defeat or destroy German ones for example and naval combat is especially unpredictable. Also, in MWiF, combat results tables with more or less randomness can be selected at the start of the game. It has to be remembered though that MWiF is a game on a very large scale and that an air counter, for example, typically represents hundreds of aircraft (not all of them the same as that depicted) and an air combat models several days (or more) of activity. Those factors will tend to smooth out results in favour of the stronger side.

For the same reason, IMHO, deliberately inaccurate combat reports don't seem appropriate. An air commander is hardly going to miss that many of his bombers got destroyed or damaged in a week long offensive against the Ruhr. Nor will a 1941 Soviet armoured corps, shattered by days of combat with German panzer forces, be mistaken for one in good condition, ready to fight.

Having said that, MWiF's scale makes FOW (Fog of War) of production and units even more interesting. There can be some very nasty surprises in store for those too adventurous because losses are often on a large scale. I think FOW will be one of the things that makes MWiF much better than cardboard WiF.

Cheers, Neilster

(in reply to pad152)
Post #: 151
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 7/5/2006 9:23:41 AM   
amwild

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Neilster
...

For the same reason, IMHO, deliberately inaccurate combat reports don't seem appropriate. An air commander is hardly going to miss that many of his bombers got destroyed or damaged in a week long offensive against the Ruhr. Nor will a 1941 Soviet armoured corps, shattered by days of combat with German panzer forces, be mistaken for one in good condition, ready to fight.

Having said that, MWiF's scale makes FOW (Fog of War) of production and units even more interesting. There can be some very nasty surprises in store for those too adventurous because losses are often on a large scale. I think FOW will be one of the things that makes MWiF much better than cardboard WiF.

Cheers, Neilster



I agree that a player probably should not be given inaccurate information as to the status of his own forces, but Fog of War could give inaccurate information about enemy forces. If all a player's unit(s) in a single hex are destroyed by an enemy unit that was not in contact at the beginning of the phase, and there are no friendly units "in sight" (i.e. no surviving friendly units in adjacent hexes, or the surviving friendly units in adjacent hexes are in terrain with limited visibility such as forest or mountain hexes), the player may not be given totally accurate information (or even any information if the defeat was sufficiently overwhelming) as to the enemy unit(s) that did the deed. It is far more likely that this sort of inaccurate or absent data will occur in air or naval combat, but it is not impossible in land combat.

To use your examples, An allied air commander is hardly going to miss that many of his bombers got destroyed or damaged in a week long offensive against the Ruhr, but he may not know that the reason for the greater-than-expected losses are due to the introduction by the Germans of the Me-262 as a front-line unit. All that the surviving pilots may report in such a situation is that they were attacked by "Something new which is really fast and has really big guns". A 1941 Soviet armoured corps, shattered by days of combat with German panzer forces may not be able to report just which German panzer units attacked them if they were caught by surprise.

There is a situation in which a player might be given inaccurate information as to the status of his own forces - a land unit may be disrupted (but not destroyed) by combat, but may be mistakenly (until the next phase) be reported as destroyed if there are no other friendly units in direct contact. This could be accounted for as a disruption in communications leading to the presumption of the loss of the unit, until communications are restored. In WWII conditions, this sort of thing is not impossible. This isn't modern times where a soldier may be able to dig his mobile/satellite phone out of his pocket...

These sort of things couldn't happen in cardboard WiF, but a computer would make this pretty easy to achieve in MWiF.

(in reply to Neilster)
Post #: 152
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 7/5/2006 11:58:48 AM   
Neilster


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quote:

ORIGINAL: amwild


quote:

ORIGINAL: Neilster
...

For the same reason, IMHO, deliberately inaccurate combat reports don't seem appropriate. An air commander is hardly going to miss that many of his bombers got destroyed or damaged in a week long offensive against the Ruhr. Nor will a 1941 Soviet armoured corps, shattered by days of combat with German panzer forces, be mistaken for one in good condition, ready to fight.

Having said that, MWiF's scale makes FOW (Fog of War) of production and units even more interesting. There can be some very nasty surprises in store for those too adventurous because losses are often on a large scale. I think FOW will be one of the things that makes MWiF much better than cardboard WiF.

Cheers, Neilster



I agree that a player probably should not be given inaccurate information as to the status of his own forces, but Fog of War could give inaccurate information about enemy forces.

Yes, I think this should be explored.

quote:

If all a player's unit(s) in a single hex are destroyed by an enemy unit that was not in contact at the beginning of the phase, and there are no friendly units "in sight" (i.e. no surviving friendly units in adjacent hexes, or the surviving friendly units in adjacent hexes are in terrain with limited visibility such as forest or mountain hexes), the player may not be given totally accurate information (or even any information if the defeat was sufficiently overwhelming) as to the enemy unit(s) that did the deed. It is far more likely that this sort of inaccurate or absent data will occur in air or naval combat, but it is not impossible in land combat.


We have to remember that a MWiF hex represents (from memory) about 1600 square km of terrain. An infantry unit represents 3-5 divisions or perhaps 50 000 troops, with all of their command and control apparatus. I don't think the terrain of, or absence of, adjacent units is really the vital thing. All of the components of the defeated divisions are going to be sending reasonably accurate reports of the strength of enemy forces up the chain of command. Whilst these might become somewhat garbled, the high command is going to get a pretty clear idea of total enemy strength. For this reason I don't think it would ever be appropriate to have no information of enemy strength in this situation. However, perhaps only an approximation of the combat and movement factors of the enemy might be gleaned.

This ties in with an idea I've had for Fog of War, in that it might be an idea to have a level of FOW between only knowing the unit type/size and having the unit completely revealed.

quote:

To use your examples, An allied air commander is hardly going to miss that many of his bombers got destroyed or damaged in a week long offensive against the Ruhr, but he may not know that the reason for the greater-than-expected losses are due to the introduction by the Germans of the Me-262 as a front-line unit. All that the surviving pilots may report in such a situation is that they were attacked by "Something new which is really fast and has really big guns".


Well, historically the pilots said that and "They didn't have props!!!". As jets had been flying around in England for over 2 years it was pretty obvious what they were. Again though, we're talking about maybe a week of intensive air operations in which the sum total of the debriefings is going to give the brass a good approximation of enemy strength.

quote:

A 1941 Soviet armoured corps, shattered by days of combat with German panzer forces may not be able to report just which German panzer units attacked them if they were caught by surprise.


I think they would. They've been fighting them for days, they've got radios, they'll take prisoners and can read unit insignia on destroyed and captured enemy equipment.

quote:

There is a situation in which a player might be given inaccurate information as to the status of his own forces - a land unit may be disrupted (but not destroyed) by combat, but may be mistakenly (until the next phase) be reported as destroyed if there are no other friendly units in direct contact. This could be accounted for as a disruption in communications leading to the presumption of the loss of the unit, until communications are restored. In WWII conditions, this sort of thing is not impossible. This isn't modern times where a soldier may be able to dig his mobile/satellite phone out of his pocket...


No, but they did have radios and landlines. I've nothing against the principle of friendly FOW but I can't see how your example would work in practice given the game mechanics of disrupted/shattered/destroyed units. What happens to the supposedly destroyed unit? Is it removed from the map? If so who by? Can the enemy exploit into it's hex? To where does it return if it's hex is occupied?

quote:

These sort of things couldn't happen in cardboard WiF, but a computer would make this pretty easy to achieve in MWiF.

I agree that these sorts of ideas should be investigated.

Cheers, Neilster




< Message edited by Neilster -- 10/5/2006 4:07:35 AM >

(in reply to amwild)
Post #: 153
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 7/5/2006 3:21:36 PM   
amwild

 

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My point is that there are circumstances in which complete information on enemy forces may not be available. Maybe my examples weren't the best, but the amount of information available may depend upon the degree of the victory/defeat. A swift, crushing defeat as the result of a surprise attack tends to leave the surviving people in the unit less able to report their circumstances than a prolonged marginal defeat where both sides know where the enemy is.

Opponents could be aware of a unit's type and even its name under this sort of FoW, but may not be informed of any or all of its combat values (replaced by question marks or something so the players know this isn't a glitch) - or vice versa... This may not be common, but it would be interesting on occasion.


As to my idea about a player's disrupted units "dissapearing", the computer would hide the disrupted counter (from either its player, the enemy player/AI, or possibly both) as if it was destroyed, until- say - the owning player's next phase. (I'm not exactly a WiF expert here, I've only played a few samll scenarios a decade or more ago, so I'm guessing a bit here.) The unit is still there, and if any player attempted to occupy the hex, the flipped unit would reappear immediately. The enemy would be as able to occupy the hex as they would a hex that is occupied by the flipped unit if it wasn't hidden - except that they may not be certain that it was there until they tried the move and ended up in combat. IIRC, in WWII there were occasions when units blundered into enemy units, one or neither of whom realised that the other was there until the shooting started.

Think of it like this: an infantry unit is attacked by and retreats from enemy armour, and is disrupted, losing its communications in the process. If communications cannot be restored immediately, HQ may think the unit has been destroyed, until such time that communications are restored, or another unit happens upon the unit in question. When the unit retreats, the disorder caused by loss of communications may give the enemy the illusion that they are destroying the cohesion of the unit, which may regoup unnoticed by their enemy a little while later, remaining combat-effective to some a greater degree than the enemy believes.
Naturally, a disrupted unit vanishing like this would be more likely for units that are short on heavy equipment - like infantry units or irregulars. Its harder to hide/miss armour or artillery.

This sort of missing unit FoW option would work especially well with ships - combat damage could wreck radios that might take days to repair, or the damaged ship might even just show up at the nearest friendly port. Bad weather would be a necessary factor if the ship was part of a convoy or taskforce, but even this wouldn't be impossible. The sea is a big, empty place, after all.

I don't see how aircraft could dissapear and reappear - their short fuel supply makes it far more likely that if a plane doesn't show up more or less when expected, it isn't ever going to. Pilots could be (and were) easily presumed lost and returned later.

(in reply to Neilster)
Post #: 154
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 7/5/2006 6:05:45 PM   
Froonp


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quote:

We have to remember that a MWiF hex represents (from memory) about 1600 square km of terrain. An infantry unit represents 3-5 divisions or perhaps 50 000 troops, with all of their command and control apparatus. I don't think the terrain of, or absence of, adjacent units is really the vital thing. All of the components of the defeated divisions are going to be sending reasonably accurate reports of the strength of enemy forces up the chain of command. Whilst these might become somewhat garbled, the high command is going to get a pretty clear idea of total enemy strength. For this reason I don't think it would ever be appropriate to have no information of enemy strength in this situation. However, perhaps only an approximation of the combat and movement factors of the enemy might be gleaned.

I wholeheartly agree, and that's the reason why I think FOW has nothing to do in a game of the scale of WiF.

As a side note, a WiF hex is 70-80 km across on the European Map, and about 220-240 km across on the Pacific map (from measurements I made on Google Earth and the map).

(in reply to Neilster)
Post #: 155
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 7/5/2006 6:13:05 PM   
Froonp


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Such FoW that amwild describes is good for a tactical or operationnal wargame, not for a grand strategic wargame.
The scale here is 80 km per hex, 2 months per turn (about 1-2 weeks per impulse), 300-500 planes per aircraft counter, 50000 mens per land unit.
At such a scale, FoW cannot exist.
At such a scale, all Army commanders know where the enemy armies are and who they are.
Unknow units doesn't exist, at such a scale.

(in reply to amwild)
Post #: 156
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 7/5/2006 6:16:59 PM   
Neilster


Posts: 2890
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From: Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
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quote:

ORIGINAL: amwild

My point is that there are circumstances in which complete information on enemy forces may not be available. Maybe my examples weren't the best, but the amount of information available may depend upon the degree of the victory/defeat. A swift, crushing defeat as the result of a surprise attack tends to leave the surviving people in the unit less able to report their circumstances than a prolonged marginal defeat where both sides know where the enemy is.


Yes, but as I've already explained, swift, crushing defeats of the sort you describe are not what land combat in WiF models. In the several days of combat that occurs, over a front about 100km long, plenty of information about what is happening would go up the chain of command. Take the destruction of Army Group Centre in June 1944 for example. The German armies were rapidly crushed by massive and fast moving Soviet forces and although Army Group HQ was unable to effectively intervene, they were all too aware of the strength of the opposition. Overruns might be an exception but that is destruction during movement and I have already argued for possible FoW for adjacent enemy units rather than automatic revelation.

quote:

Opponents could be aware of a unit's type and even its name under this sort of FoW, but may not be informed of any or all of its combat values (replaced by question marks or something so the players know this isn't a glitch) - or vice versa... This may not be common, but it would be interesting on occasion.


I've already discussed this above.

quote:

As to my idea about a player's disrupted units "dissapearing", the computer would hide the disrupted counter (from either its player, the enemy player/AI, or possibly both) as if it was destroyed, until- say - the owning player's next phase. (I'm not exactly a WiF expert here, I've only played a few samll scenarios a decade or more ago, so I'm guessing a bit here.) The unit is still there, and if any player attempted to occupy the hex, the flipped unit would reappear immediately. The enemy would be as able to occupy the hex as they would a hex that is occupied by the flipped unit if it wasn't hidden - except that they may not be certain that it was there until they tried the move and ended up in combat. IIRC, in WWII there were occasions when units blundered into enemy units, one or neither of whom realised that the other was there until the shooting started.


The status of smaller formations can often be ambiguous or unknown but for the reasons I've stated above, the status of 50 000 troops and their associated support infrastructures is likely to be quite well known, even if it's bad news. Also, if a unit is supposedly destroyed, someone, either the phasing or non phasing player, removes it from the map. You haven't explained how this can be handled or the case of shattered units. When you talk of units blundering into one another, you again seem not to grasp the scale of WiF's land units. Corps, and even divisions don't move without dedicated recon units probing ahead and local attacks being launched to find weak points. Small units can bump into one another but not large formations.

quote:

Think of it like this: an infantry unit is attacked by and retreats from enemy armour, and is disrupted, losing its communications in the process. If communications cannot be restored immediately, HQ may think the unit has been destroyed, until such time that communications are restored, or another unit happens upon the unit in question. When the unit retreats, the disorder caused by loss of communications may give the enemy the illusion that they are destroying the cohesion of the unit, which may regoup unnoticed by their enemy a little while later, remaining combat-effective to some a greater degree than the enemy believes.
Naturally, a disrupted unit vanishing like this would be more likely for units that are short on heavy equipment - like infantry units or irregulars. Its harder to hide/miss armour or artillery.


I'm perfectly aware of what you're on about, it's just not appropriate for the massive forces represented by WiF land units. A whole corps never loses its communications. It's a massive organisation consisting of dozens of organic or attached units, each with their own radios, runners, dispatch riders, carrier pigeons and landlines. A whole corps can't regain combat effectiveness without the enemy noticing because of the multitude of sources that would be providing evidence to the contrary. Battalion after battalion would be reporting stiffening resistance or local counterattacks. Regimental HQs would be passing on these reports. Again, you're underestimating the scale of the units involved.

quote:

This sort of missing unit FoW option would work especially well with ships - combat damage could wreck radios that might take days to repair, or the damaged ship might even just show up at the nearest friendly port. Bad weather would be a necessary factor if the ship was part of a convoy or taskforce, but even this wouldn't be impossible. The sea is a big, empty place, after all.


I think there is more of a place for friendly FOW in naval combat but it still has to be remembered that the naval counters in WiF don't typically represent single ships.

quote:

I don't see how aircraft could dissapear and reappear - their short fuel supply makes it far more likely that if a plane doesn't show up more or less when expected, it isn't ever going to. Pilots could be (and were) easily presumed lost and returned later.


As I've already pointed out, air actions represent several days of action. One's own losses and serviceability would be very obvious. A handful of pilots that were lost might turn up several months later after escaping but that's not worth modeling when there are hundreds in an air unit.

Cheers, Neilster



< Message edited by Neilster -- 8/16/2006 11:57:21 AM >

(in reply to amwild)
Post #: 157
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 7/5/2006 6:34:21 PM   
wfzimmerman


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Froonp

Such FoW that amwild describes is good for a tactical or operationnal wargame, not for a grand strategic wargame.
The scale here is 80 km per hex, 2 months per turn (about 1-2 weeks per impulse), 300-500 planes per aircraft counter, 50000 mens per land unit.
At such a scale, FoW cannot exist.
At such a scale, all Army commanders know where the enemy armies are and who they are.
Unknow units doesn't exist, at such a scale.


I think having exact knowledge of enemy capabilities down to the individual combat factor is unrealistic even at a strategic scale. I deplore factor-counting. I would strongly support some form of "shrouding" of capabilities of enemy units that have not yet been engaged. I.e. the unit's presence and type (inf, art, arm ...) is known, but not the precise unit type (airborne, mtn, etc.) and not the combat strength.

One interesting variation on "shrouding" might be shrouding value of new units until first encounter with enemy. For example, the USN did not fully appreciate the combat value of Japanese cruisers until the first engagements with Long Lances. Similarly, the cv of the ME262 was somewhat unknowable until the first air to air engagements occurred.

_____________________________


(in reply to Froonp)
Post #: 158
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 7/5/2006 6:35:55 PM   
Neilster


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From: Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Froonp

Such FoW that amwild describes is good for a tactical or operationnal wargame, not for a grand strategic wargame.
The scale here is 80 km per hex, 2 months per turn (about 1-2 weeks per impulse), 300-500 planes per aircraft counter, 50000 mens per land unit.
At such a scale, FoW cannot exist.
At such a scale, all Army commanders know where the enemy armies are and who they are.
Unknow units doesn't exist, at such a scale.


I've provided examples in the Intelligence thread of where FoW of even adjacent enemy units seems appropriate.

"What about units that are adjacent across frontiers, say, pre-Barbarossa for example? Also, sometimes armies were very good at masking their strength. I'm thinking of the Ruskies in 43-45 and the Jerries before the Ardennes Offensive."

What about units that are deep in an enemy's hinterland? The Germans were unaware of all those Siberians that turned up in front of Moscow in late 1941. What about Operation Fortitude North that convinced them that there was a whole Allied army group in East Anglia, ready to invade the Pas de Calais? Only the vaguest information would be available of many enemy units, especially when out of photo-recon range. How would OKW know the exact strength of an infantry corps in Chelyabinsk? They'd be lucky to know it was there.

Strategic deception was very important in WW2 and I definitely think there is a place for it as an optional rule in WiF. I think it really enhances the game by preventing gamey tactics and adding realism.

Cheers, Neilster

(in reply to Froonp)
Post #: 159
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 7/5/2006 6:44:16 PM   
SamuraiProgrmmr

 

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I am not sure where my opinion falls on this issue. It is fairly obvious that there should be decent information about army groups in a hex even if the hex is off of the front line. Which unit may have been fairly easy to figure out from intel reports.

But Fog Of War may have had an instrumental part to play in the outcome....

Massive effort was put into a deception (coded radio messages and such) that made it look like Patton was in charge of a large force that would attack German holdings. I have always heard (correct me if I am wrong) that Hitler refused to release reserves to Rommel on D-Day because he was convinced that Normandy was a feint and the real invasion would occur somewhere else (Netherlands?). I have also heard it speculated that if Rommel had gotten the reserves, D-Day may have failed to hold the beachhead.

If all of this is true (IF IF IF), then the deception surrounding Patton's command may have been instrumental in success.

Also, I have always heard that the battle of Midway was won because we broke the code and knew what was happening. If (IF IF IF) we had not, or had not trusted the code breakers, part of the fleet might have been elsewhere (Alaska?) fending off an attack from a fleet that was not there.

If so (IF IF IF), then 'fog of war' would be an interesting addition to the game. I have seen very few board games that have been able to implement this. The only substantial game that comes to mind is Victory Games' Vietnam, In it, the VC counters had a side that had no information other than 'VC might be here'. You had to attack to find out if it were a VC or a decoy.

I have even heard that during the darkest hours of the Battle of Britain, cardboard replicas of Fighters were set up near airfields to increase the enemy's estimate of air power.

I think Fog Of War in some fashion is an interesting concept to add to a computer game if for no other reason than it is generally impossible to do with a board game but easy to do with a computer game.

I think it should be tied to air superiority in an area. For example, if a bomber gets through to a hex, then certainly, there should be more information available from the hexes along the flight path.

I also think it might be interesting to spend an O-chit on deception (ala Patton).

Just ideas... What does everyone else think? Are they tenable? Are they usable? Will they destroy balance in the game?



_____________________________

Bridge is the best wargame going .. Where else can you find a tournament every weekend?

(in reply to Neilster)
Post #: 160
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 7/5/2006 7:45:11 PM   
amwild

 

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Joined: 2/9/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Neilster
...

Yes, but as I've already explained, swift, crushing defeats of the sort you describe are not what land combat in WiF models. In the several days of combat that occurs, over a front about 100km long, plenty of information about what is happening would go up the chain of command. Take the destruction of Army Group Centre in June 1944 for example. The German armies were rapidly crushed by massive and fast moving Soviet forces and although Army Group HQ was unable to effectively intervene, they were all too aware of the strength of the opposition. Overruns might be an exception but that is destruction during movement and I have already argued for possible FoW for adjacent enemy units rather than automatic revelation.

...

The status of smaller formations can often be ambiguous or unknown but for the reasons I've stated above, the status of 50 000 troops and their associated support infrastructures is likely to be quite well known, even if it's bad news. Also, if a unit is supposedly destroyed, someone, either the phasing or non phasing player, removes it from the map. You haven't explained how this can be handled or the case of shattered units. When you talk of units blundering into one another, you again seem not to grasp the scale of WiF's land units. Corps, and even divisions don't move without dedicated recon units probing ahead and local attacks being launched to find weak points. Small units can bumb into one another but not large formations.

...

I'm perfectly aware of what you're on about, it's just not appropriate for the massive forces represented by WiF land units. A whole corps never loses its communications. It's a massive organisation consisting of dozens of organic or attached units, each with their own radios, runners, dispatch riders, carrier pigeons and landlines. A whole corps can't regain combat effectiveness without the enemy noticing because of the multitude of sources that would be providing evidence to the contrary. Battalion after battalion would be reporting stiffening resistance or local counterattacks. Regimental HQs would be passing on these reports. Again, you're underestimating the scale of the units involved.

...

I think there is more of a place for friendly FOW in naval combat but it still has to be remembered that the naval counters in WiF don't typically represent single ships.

...

As I've already pointed out, air actions represent several days of action. One's own losses and serviceability would be very obvious. A handful of pilots that were lost might turn up several months later after escaping but that's not worth modeling when there are hundreds in an air unit.

Cheers, Neilster


You're right, of course. I tend to think more tactically than strategically. With these kinds of numbers, it is hard to lose track of your own units.

On the other hand, this doesn't mean that a player should know everything about the enemy. A player should probably know pretty much where most of the enemy units are, though not necessarily what they are capable of until they actually fight them. I like the idea of hiding the game combat and movement values of a unit until the player or an ally has actually fought the unit. Units available at the start of a game would probably have known scores.

Also, as I have mentioned before, Fog of War can be implemented even in cardboard WiF by allowing stacks of units to be sorted so that a player-chosen unit is at the top, and then forbidding opponents from examining the contents of an enemy stack until an attack is declared. This should be easy for MWiF.

quote:

ORIGINAL: SamuraiProgrammer
I am not sure where my opinion falls on this issue. It is fairly obvious that there should be decent information about army groups in a hex even if the hex is off of the front line. Which unit may have been fairly easy to figure out from intel reports.

But Fog Of War may have had an instrumental part to play in the outcome....

Massive effort was put into a deception (coded radio messages and such) that made it look like Patton was in charge of a large force that would attack German holdings. I have always heard (correct me if I am wrong) that Hitler refused to release reserves to Rommel on D-Day because he was convinced that Normandy was a feint and the real invasion would occur somewhere else (Netherlands?). I have also heard it speculated that if Rommel had gotten the reserves, D-Day may have failed to hold the beachhead.

If all of this is true (IF IF IF), then the deception surrounding Patton's command may have been instrumental in success.

Also, I have always heard that the battle of Midway was won because we broke the code and knew what was happening. If (IF IF IF) we had not, or had not trusted the code breakers, part of the fleet might have been elsewhere (Alaska?) fending off an attack from a fleet that was not there.

If so (IF IF IF), then 'fog of war' would be an interesting addition to the game. I have seen very few board games that have been able to implement this. The only substantial game that comes to mind is Victory Games' Vietnam, In it, the VC counters had a side that had no information other than 'VC might be here'. You had to attack to find out if it were a VC or a decoy.

I have even heard that during the darkest hours of the Battle of Britain, cardboard replicas of Fighters were set up near airfields to increase the enemy's estimate of air power.

I think Fog Of War in some fashion is an interesting concept to add to a computer game if for no other reason than it is generally impossible to do with a board game but easy to do with a computer game.

I think it should be tied to air superiority in an area. For example, if a bomber gets through to a hex, then certainly, there should be more information available from the hexes along the flight path.

I also think it might be interesting to spend an O-chit on deception (ala Patton).

Just ideas... What does everyone else think? Are they tenable? Are they usable? Will they destroy balance in the game?


Perhaps it could be possible to build decoy units at a minimum cost that do nothing but look like real units until attacked, whereupon they disappear. Since players will get used to seeing units with nothing but question marks on them (if that sort of FoW is implemented), they will be indistinguishable from real units except that they do not move, or move only one hex per phase - and that's being generous. This would simulate the sort of deception employed by the Alies prior to D-Day that was aimed at axis aerial recon. This could be a fairly substantial departure from WiF though, so I'm not sure if anything like this will make it into MWiF.

(in reply to Neilster)
Post #: 161
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 7/5/2006 10:34:18 PM   
Anendrue


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Another great deception is how the British were able to deceive German and Italian forces into bombing empty desert at night by relocating the city of Suez and the canal each night. BTW they classified how this was accomplished under the 100 years secrets act. I sure hope I live that long as it would be interesting to find out how they relocated the Suez canal and an entire city every night. I would guess mirrors lights generators etc... Point is deception has long been a valid use by armed forces of any size.

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Post #: 162
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 8/15/2006 9:52:37 PM   
Romulus68

 

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While attending WiFcon we had a guest speaker, "Col. Vlass." (I think that was the spelling of his name) He lectured on the events of Germany's invasion of Russia in particular the situational reports. He has travelled extensibly to Germany and Russia and had ACTUAL copies of the reports used by the troops in the field. He stated that every unit had 50% of their troops assigned to recon at all times. He supplied us with sitreps of Germany and then sitreps of Russia at the same time intervals on the front. It was amazing how accurate they were. He went on to state they pretty much knew who was in front of them (unit names, troop estimates, readiness, etc).

Information past the "Front" was not as detailed, but they seemed to know where the Corps were located and coming from. Intel was acheived via spy planes, prisoners and spies in reference to troops coming from Siberia or the rear.

I think the Colonel is available to pick his brain. Would anyonne in the game design process like to contact him? He may provide some insight to the aspects of "Fog of War" from a realistic perspective.

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Post #: 163
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 8/15/2006 10:30:18 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Romulus68
While attending WiFcon we had a guest speaker, "Col. Vlass." (I think that was the spelling of his name) He lectured on the events of Germany's invasion of Russia in particular the situational reports. He has travelled extensibly to Germany and Russia and had ACTUAL copies of the reports used by the troops in the field. He stated that every unit had 50% of their troops assigned to recon at all times. He supplied us with sitreps of Germany and then sitreps of Russia at the same time intervals on the front. It was amazing how accurate they were. He went on to state they pretty much knew who was in front of them (unit names, troop estimates, readiness, etc).

Information past the "Front" was not as detailed, but they seemed to know where the Corps were located and coming from. Intel was acheived via spy planes, prisoners and spies in reference to troops coming from Siberia or the rear.

I think the Colonel is available to pick his brain. Would anyonne in the game design process like to contact him? He may provide some insight to the aspects of "Fog of War" from a realistic perspective.


Thanks for the report.

I do not have the time, personally, but would be very interested in hearing from the Col. or from someone who talks with him about Fog of War for Germany versus Russia. If we can model FOW in that theater of operations, it will probably be fairly accurate for the other theaters too.

Again, thanks - I'm interested in this - but I'm very busy.

_____________________________

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Post #: 164
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 8/16/2006 12:20:38 PM   
Neilster


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Well, German strategic intelligence of Russia before the invasion was awful. They underestimated the size of the Red Army by about a half and the number of Russian tanks by about two thirds. I've heard a conversation secretly recorded by the Finnish secret service in which Hitler states that if they knew Russia had 15 000 tanks, they never would have invaded.

There are numerous examples in WW2 of massive offensives being launched where those on the receiving end had almost no idea anything was up, let alone the strength of opposing units and follow-on forces. Barbarossa, the Moscow counter offensive, the encirclement at Stalingrad, almost all the Russian offensives after Jul 43, D Day and the Ardennes Offensive come to mind.

How the Axis would have any idea of the strength of individual units in the UK or the USA is beyond me.

Cheers, Neilster

< Message edited by Neilster -- 8/16/2006 12:21:43 PM >

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 165
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 8/16/2006 2:02:24 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Neilster
Well, German strategic intelligence of Russia before the invasion was awful. They underestimated the size of the Red Army by about a half and the number of Russian tanks by about two thirds. I've heard a conversation secretly recorded by the Finnish secret service in which Hitler states that if they knew Russia had 15 000 tanks, they never would have invaded.

There are numerous examples in WW2 of massive offensives being launched where those on the receiving end had almost no idea anything was up, let alone the strength of opposing units and follow-on forces. Barbarossa, the Moscow counter offensive, the encirclement at Stalingrad, almost all the Russian offensives after Jul 43, D Day and the Ardennes Offensive come to mind.

How the Axis would have any idea of the strength of individual units in the UK or the USA is beyond me.

Cheers, Neilster


Ok. But this doesn't invalidate what Romulus68 said in his post. To whit, when the frontlines were moving, both sides had a pretty good idea who was opposite them. All the situations you mention were either no-contact (e.g. D-Day) or fronts that had become rather static (even the Battle of the Bulge).

In any event, it appears that realism will have to take a back seat to making FOW an optional rule that is enjoyable to play. The difficulty in simulating the unknown (lack of intell) of the actual commanders is hopeless, given the retrospectif all the players will have.

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Post #: 166
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 8/16/2006 2:16:16 PM   
Romulus68

 

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I had his name wrong: Col (ret) David Glantz

wikipedia of Col David_Glantz

He has a long line of credentials as you can see. WifCon is currently under way and one of my game buddies is up there. I will try and get word to him and see if the Col will be there this year.

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 167
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 8/16/2006 9:17:38 PM   
Ballista


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I saw him at HistoriCon back in July- he gave a very quick talk on Operation Zitadelle. Good stuff but he was rushed and had enough material to easily spend hours covering this subject.

< Message edited by Ballista -- 8/16/2006 9:18:28 PM >

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Post #: 168
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 8/16/2006 10:24:25 PM   
SurrenderMonkey

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Neilster

Well, German strategic intelligence of Russia before the invasion was awful. They underestimated the size of the Red Army by about a half and the number of Russian tanks by about two thirds. I've heard a conversation secretly recorded by the Finnish secret service in which Hitler states that if they knew Russia had 15 000 tanks, they never would have invaded.

There are numerous examples in WW2 of massive offensives being launched where those on the receiving end had almost no idea anything was up, let alone the strength of opposing units and follow-on forces. Barbarossa, the Moscow counter offensive, the encirclement at Stalingrad, almost all the Russian offensives after Jul 43, D Day and the Ardennes Offensive come to mind.

How the Axis would have any idea of the strength of individual units in the UK or the USA is beyond me.

Cheers, Neilster


It can be argued, of course, that the 'surprise' factor for a given offensive is achieved via the game mechanics - i.e., "Whoa - I didn't see that coming!"

For example, I have caught my Axis opponent with his pants down in '43 and landed in Brittany and Bordeax, then linked up and trapped several corps and established a viable second front, all because he didn't anticipate where I was GOING to be. Knowing where someone CURRENTLY IS in WiF is not as productive as knowing where he could possibly be (i.e., after movement, impulses, etc.) Same thing happens on the Eastern Front or the Med. IMHO, the FoW is sufficiently established in WiF via this dynamic.

(in reply to Neilster)
Post #: 169
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 8/17/2006 12:59:21 AM   
ezzler

 

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I couldn't agree more with the posters who believe the FOW is sufficently established in WIF. It simply plays on a very large scale and FOW really doesn't apply .

Take the Battle of Britain. The fact there is 2 or 3 fighter counters in the Uk doesn't really change your options. You will either attack or you won't. And you may only have 5 - 6 units to fly anyway. And as only the front fighter or bomber counts in combat {effectively} knowing that there are 3 hurricanes or 2 hurricanes and a gladiator or 3 spitfires doesn't really matter.
Suprise is inbuilt in the rules with air / land and sea combats anyway.

The arguments for deception and decoy units are valid for discussion but as SurrenderMonkey points out it is the inability to know where your opponent will strike that is the core of the desicions you must make.

For example transports loaded with GI's in Dover COULD land in : Norway / Finland / France / Denmark /  Belgium / Holland / Portugal /Spain /Africa / or be shipped to the Pacific or to the Middle east etc.
The fact you can see that Denmark or Norway is lightly garrisoned doesn't mean you would attack there.

An earlier comment about Dummy units in England also applies. The fact you BELIEVE there to be extra troops in the UK doesn't mean that you would have extra garrisons in Europe, probably just your own dummies.
Afer all CBE 
{can't be everywhere}

And after all , if you are  playing with FOW would you launch an Invasion WITHOUT recon first?

And what about Enigma and Purple and Magic . How is that to be modeled ? Or Rommels reading of the US embassy reports?

I believe adding FOW would only mean adding Recon Air units / fast destroyer scouts / partisan intelligence / coastwatchers / Sub pickets / radio intercepts / Double Agents etc and only adding complexity to what is already one of the most complex games around without really adding to the game play.   

So if FOW is to be included please make it optional !!

(in reply to SurrenderMonkey)
Post #: 170
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 8/17/2006 2:10:56 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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Oh, that it will be optional is certain.

It is only a question of when (MWIF product 1, 2, or 3) and what (the details of its implementation).

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Post #: 171
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 8/17/2006 10:56:10 AM   
wosung

 

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To add another dimension to the AI/intelligence topic:

How to simulate "bad use" or "non-use" of intelligence? At least for playing against the AI.

Generally in WW2 there were two factors for not using intelligence:

1.Ideology:
Esp. (but not only) dictatorships relied more on their ideological world views then on intelligence:

-Stalin 1941 ("They won't attack. We give them allready all the ressources they need. They'll fight on the plutocrats")

-Hitler and the German Army 1941 ("The Red Army might be bigger than the German. Our logistics can only be stretched to cover 600 km depth. But we'll win. In six weeks it's over. Bolshewik subhumans can't fight.) in 1944/45 (estimated Red Army figures are "the biggest bluff since Dshinghiz Khan")

-Wester Allies 1941 ("These little yellow men hardly can fly. They won't fight us).

2. Not using intelligence for fear of outing the sources.


Some of the ideological factors of intelligence in WIF are modelled. But many ideological apects (that means "irrational actions" are not part of the game, for example:

-Hitlers non-retreat orders. (Only game I know this is modelled was the old Clash of Steel).

-Nazi unwillingness to prepare their production for total war until it was too late. (This could be simulated by connecting German production multipliers to German battlefield and terrain losses.)

-Japanese extreme offensive spirit, esp. in he first half of the war, the banzai charges. (This could be modelled by giving the Japanese ground forces higher attack than defense values).


Regards





(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 172
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 8/19/2006 2:24:20 PM   
Neilster


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Re the FoW thing. The arguments expressed that there is a degree of it due to the game mechanics are valid but FoW would increase the unpredictability. If you've played CWiF with FoW you'll know that it forces you to play like a commander and not an accountant. Given that many (most?) playing groups have FoW house rules, to have none at all might actually make MWiF less like cardboard WiF.

I'm actually pretty relaxed about it but I detect in the anti-FoW camp the same whiff of WiF () fundamentalism that had people claiming that the single scale map would ruin the game.

MWiF provides an opportunity to introduce features that were impossible in WiF and that may seriously enhance the playing experience. FoW is a really great part of computer wargames and if we put anything like the effort that has gone into the map discussions into working out its nuances it shouldn't be too difficult to get it working. Well....apart from the actual programming it but that's not my problem .

Anyhoo, I like to play Devil's advocate to ensure that ideas are explored. To be honest, I quite liked sorting through all the possible combinations to get that vital column shift.

Cheers, Neilster


< Message edited by Neilster -- 8/19/2006 2:25:40 PM >

(in reply to wosung)
Post #: 173
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 8/19/2006 4:19:32 PM   
wfzimmerman


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Neilster

Re the FoW thing. The arguments expressed that there is a degree of it due to the game mechanics are valid but FoW would increase the unpredictability. If you've played CWiF with FoW you'll know that it forces you to play like a commander and not an accountant. Given that many (most?) playing groups have FoW house rules, to have none at all might actually make MWiF less like cardboard WiF.

I'm actually pretty relaxed about it but I detect in the anti-FoW camp the same whiff of WiF () fundamentalism that had people claiming that the single scale map would ruin the game.

MWiF provides an opportunity to introduce features that were impossible in WiF and that may seriously enhance the playing experience. FoW is a really great part of computer wargames and if we put anything like the effort that has gone into the map discussions into working out its nuances it shouldn't be too difficult to get it working. Well....apart from the actual programming it but that's not my problem .

Anyhoo, I like to play Devil's advocate to ensure that ideas are explored. To be honest, I quite liked sorting through all the possible combinations to get that vital column shift.

Cheers, Neilster



Agree.

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Post #: 174
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 8/19/2006 6:29:20 PM   
ezzler

 

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Its a very good argument. Why not trial some new ideas for a computer game?

However as someone who always uses FOW in Witp , GGWAW , heart of iron , stategic command etc I still feel it is not for WIF. Mainly because the rules { which aren't changing} don't lend to it.

There is the constraint of Land / sea / air /mixed impulses first of all . In most other games you can move all your units to carry out probes , sail into harm etc
But in WIF number of combats , moves is limited each impulse. If it is necessary to carry out recons first then time is a wasting and I feel accomplishments each turn will suffer.
Wether 1 cruiser or the whole fleet sails its still a naval move and i just feel the number of opportunities for a mixed impulse will be less { who will be the commewnwealth now? }

If rules and play sequences were changing then prehaps FOW could really play a part.

That aside I don't really have a problem with being unable to see whats happening in the Mid-West or Newfoundland or beyond the Urals or the production spiral. its knowing if the philipines is fortified or deserted that matters and influences strategy decisions.


(in reply to wfzimmerman)
Post #: 175
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 8/21/2006 6:33:09 PM   
mlees


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I have seen "strategy guides" that detail the "perfect move" to break open the French line in '40.

It details down to the last build point the builds Germany must do from game start. It details the position of each unit, and what hex it attacks. Each attack strength is calculated out to acheive x:1 or better.

This type of micrmanagement is a time honored part of the game. But it is a tad gamey, compared to the real life examples.

IRL, the commanders did not use "just enough" to get 4:1 odds. They used everything they could afford to bring. (Supply being a factor there.)

The time honored method has the advantage of producing (more or less) predictable and desirable results.

FOW would make attacks a little more of a gamble. For example, I could know that the Japanese has a land unit stationed in Truk. But not the combat value. Weak or strong? Better invade the hex like you mean it...

quote:

But in WIF number of combats , moves is limited each impulse. If it is necessary to carry out recons first then time is a wasting and I feel accomplishments each turn will suffer.


Well, we have the advantage of the computer doing all the calcs for us. What we could do is make recce a function of having units nearby:

Combattant Naval Units (non convoy/TRS) have a chance of reconnoitering the coastal areas the sea area touches.

Air units (including those on CV's, and those "flipped") have an innate ability to recon hexes within their air range, with a decreasing chance at longer and longer ranges.

Land units have a 2 or 3 hex recce range (to simulate observation planes).

This stuff can be modified by weather.

Now, we could do this a couple ways. FOW could mean that all units are hidden until "spotted". Or, unit positions are known, but their exact identity aren't known until spotted.

Combat reveals identity, of course.

(in reply to ezzler)
Post #: 176
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 8/21/2006 8:02:57 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: mlees
I have seen "strategy guides" that detail the "perfect move" to break open the French line in '40.

It details down to the last build point the builds Germany must do from game start. It details the position of each unit, and what hex it attacks. Each attack strength is calculated out to acheive x:1 or better.

This type of micrmanagement is a time honored part of the game. But it is a tad gamey, compared to the real life examples.

IRL, the commanders did not use "just enough" to get 4:1 odds. They used everything they could afford to bring. (Supply being a factor there.)

The time honored method has the advantage of producing (more or less) predictable and desirable results.

FOW would make attacks a little more of a gamble. For example, I could know that the Japanese has a land unit stationed in Truk. But not the combat value. Weak or strong? Better invade the hex like you mean it...

quote:

But in WIF number of combats , moves is limited each impulse. If it is necessary to carry out recons first then time is a wasting and I feel accomplishments each turn will suffer.


Well, we have the advantage of the computer doing all the calcs for us. What we could do is make recce a function of having units nearby:

Combattant Naval Units (non convoy/TRS) have a chance of reconnoitering the coastal areas the sea area touches.

Air units (including those on CV's, and those "flipped") have an innate ability to recon hexes within their air range, with a decreasing chance at longer and longer ranges.

Land units have a 2 or 3 hex recce range (to simulate observation planes).

This stuff can be modified by weather.

Now, we could do this a couple ways. FOW could mean that all units are hidden until "spotted". Or, unit positions are known, but their exact identity aren't known until spotted.

Combat reveals identity, of course.

You are much closer to what I am thinking of doing: unit placement and type provides information on enemy units without explicit recon activity. Combat would expose exact unit numbers. This could be supplemented by some air missions providing additional intel as part of 'normal' mission activities. The devil is in the details though. And is it deterministic or probabilistic?

_____________________________

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Post #: 177
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 8/21/2006 8:59:06 PM   
mlees


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quote:

And is it deterministic or probabilistic?


I am sorry. I dont know the difference between the two. Was the question rhetorical?

My main concern was to use some kind of process that didnt impact the mission activity limits.

Also of concern:

1) Should a player get free recce from all units, every impulse? Even if he passes? Or only units that are moved? Based on mission activity? (All land units search in a "Land" activity selection...) How about "flipped" units?

2) Is the info "carried over" the turn break into the next turn? (Like a "running tally".)

3) Once a unit is spotted, how does it become "unspotted"? Movement away from enemy forces?

All I can say is: Better you than me.

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 178
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 8/21/2006 10:27:43 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: mlees
quote:

And is it deterministic or probabilistic?


I am sorry. I dont know the difference between the two. Was the question rhetorical?

My main concern was to use some kind of process that didnt impact the mission activity limits.

Also of concern:

1) Should a player get free recce from all units, every impulse? Even if he passes? Or only units that are moved? Based on mission activity? (All land units search in a "Land" activity selection...) How about "flipped" units?

2) Is the info "carried over" the turn break into the next turn? (Like a "running tally".)

3) Once a unit is spotted, how does it become "unspotted"? Movement away from enemy forces?

All I can say is: Better you than me.


Deterministic means it can be determined exactly. The strength of an infantry unit is deterministic.
Probabilisitic means it depends on probability (rolling dice or drawing chits in the case of WIF). The land combat results table is probabilistic.

So what I was asking is whether under certain circumstances is the player guaranteed getting/not getting intel information? If you do this, you can learn about the enemy units. If you do that, you can be assured that the enemy doesn't know about your units. If actions produce the same intel every time, it is deterministic. If die rolling is involved, then it is probabilistic.

Your questions are good ones (also mentioned by others earlier). The only way to do this is using the same process as for any of the game design decisions. You take them one at a time and decide. Occasionally several of them need to be decided as a group. It is essential to have a theory/philosophy when you start out so that all the little decisions along the way can be weighed against the philosophy for this aspect of the game design. It takes time and effort to do it right. And a lot of play test to really understand the innumerable interactions this would create.

_____________________________

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Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 179
RE: Artifical Intelligence for World in Flames - 8/21/2006 10:49:59 PM   
ezzler

 

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You know , I feel I am being won round to your case.

Hidden values and strength points is no bad thing.

My major worry was not knowing where UNITS were and running into unseen ZOC's or finding that the one territorial in Afica has suddenly emeged in Addis Abbaba and caused a huge loss of territory because you never knew it was there.

The idea of not being able to spot all those 2nd defence lines of juicy targets { like flipped HQ and air } may prevent some of those armour / cavalry rushes on the final impulses.

As long as the position of all the units was known then the exact details could come out in the combat.

Still , keep it optional !!

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 180
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