Difficult rules and random rolls

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All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> Gary Grigsby's World at War: A World Divided >> Difficult rules and random rolls

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Difficult rules and random rolls - 11/7/2006 6:28:15 PM

Tom Grosv

Posts: 84
Joined: 6/20/2005
Status: offline

I'm very much enjoying this game but some of the rules don't appear to be well written. I stared at the following paragraph 9.1 Security Combat until my eyes hurt

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At the end of each player's turn, that player's Security Assets will attack the Spy assets being sent against him and SIGINT assets of each opposing player only (eg it is not possible for Western Allied Assets to attack Chinese Assets, or for German Assets to attack Japanese Assets etc). A player's Security Assets may only attack Spy Assets that are targeted against him, but his includes spies sent against him by other friendly players.

I now understand that it says (I think) that your security assets will attack spy assets sent against you by any player, friendly or enemy, but your security assets will only attack SIGINT assets of enemy players. Isn't that a bit simpler? Perhaps it's just me.

However, I'm still at a complete loss in 9.2, and elsewhere, when it talks about random rolls.

Can anybody please explain precisely how this works? For instance, how exactly do the numbers crunch to allow the game to work out whether Random (Attacking Spies) is greater or equal to or less than Random (3*Defending Security)?

Post #: 1

RE: Difficult rules and random rolls - 11/7/2006 7:12:15 PM

JanSorensen

Posts: 3684
Joined: 5/2/2005
From: Aalborg, Denmark
Status: offline

Let me try to explain the concept of random rolls and how they work in AWD.

I am sure you know how a normal (6-sided) die work. (it randomly selects a whole number from 1 to 6 with the same probability to get each of the 6 numbers).

Now, Random(6) is almost the same. It picks a number from 0 to 5 randomly with the same probability of getting each number. Similarly Random(15) picks a whole number at random from 0 to 14.

So, when the game states that if Random(Attacking Spies) is greater than or equal to Random(3*Defending Security) two such random numbers are picked.

Lets take an example. Lets say there are 10 attacking spies and 7 defending security.
First a random number from 0 to 9 is picked (from the 10 spies). Lets say a 7 is picked.
Then a random number from 0 to 20 is picked (as 3*7 is 21). Lets say a 10 is picked.
Thus nothing happens in this case as 7 is not greater than or equal to 10.

I hope this helps.

(in reply to Tom Grosv)

Post #: 2

RE: Difficult rules and random rolls - 11/7/2006 10:36:18 PM

Tom Grosv

Posts: 84
Joined: 6/20/2005
Status: offline

Thanks Jan, think I get it now

Tom

(in reply to JanSorensen)

Post #: 3

RE: Difficult rules and random rolls - 11/7/2006 11:26:16 PM

Tom Grosv

Posts: 84
Joined: 6/20/2005
Status: offline

After you explained the random die roll to me, Jan, I found I had to immediately look at AWD to try and understand the practical effects. Hopefully the below shows I'm getting it - please yell at me if I haven't.

I looked at the Total War starting position for Germany against WA. Germany has 10 security, 6 SIGINT and 6 spies against WA who have 8 security. I'm ignoring spying in regions.

The chances of Germany discovering WA research, production, security/spies/SIGINT, WR every turn is not good because they have to roll greater than WA with a 0-5 against 0-23 (6 vs 3*8) - possible, but unlikely. (Is there a maths wizard out there who knows the % chance?) Of course, just a small peek at these elements every now and then could be valuable gold dust.

The chances of Germany grabbing some sort of technology is better than fair - first they roll 0-11 against 0-7 (2*6 vs 8) and, if successful, then they have a go at each field they trail in with a 0-5 against 0-12 (6 vs 5+8).

The chances of Germany getting a +1 attack modifier for SIGINT is fair, but less than 50% - they are rolling 0-5 against 0-7 (6 vs 8).

The chances of Germany losing a spy to WA is poor as WA have to roll 0-7 against 0-49, though that 0-49 will not change the whole game whereas the 0-7 will probably rise constantly during the game.

The chances of Germany losing a SIGINT asset is very poor as WA have to roll 0-7 against 0-47 (8 vs 8*6).

Of course, these figures change as the game progresses. I imagine future contributions to this forum will argue over the worthwhileness or not of pouring resources into this area.

(in reply to JanSorensen)

Post #: 4

RE: Difficult rules and random rolls - 11/7/2006 11:40:56 PM

WanderingHead

Posts: 2134
Joined: 9/22/2004
From: GMT-8
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Grosv
Of course, these figures change as the game progresses. I imagine future contributions to this forum will argue over the worthwhileness or not of pouring resources into this area.

I haven't analyzed the probabilities, but at a high level I can say that typically I invest in spies against Germany as WA and Russia, in order to steal technology. This is worthwhile because Germany starts out ahead in many relevant areas. As you watch your research levels bump up every now and then (giving you _faster_ tech, as well as cheaper) you will likely decide that it is worthwhile.

As Germany, I typically invest in security, in order to slow the afore mentioned stealing of tech by the Allies. I don't typically invest in spies against the Allies, because they don't have much useful stuff to steal.

There is also a line of thought that it is useful for the Germans to spy against Japan, in order to get faster upgrades in some key air capabilities.

Japan will find investing in spies difficult. I have invested in security, again to slow WA stealing of tech, but I don't have as many prejudices in a course of action here.

You will note that I have focused only on tech stealing. That is the only part of espionage I find compelling as motivation to invest, although it is true that SigInt is nice to have.

The precise levels of intelligence assets I shoot for is of course a trade secret :).

(in reply to Tom Grosv)

Post #: 5