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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

 
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/16/2005 10:42:04 PM   
jwilkerson


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko

Oh boy. mdiehl vs elcid. Guy who didn't even buy the game vs. elcid. Notorious Allied fanboi and one of the most obnoxious posters on WITP board vs. one of the most knowledgable guys on all things Japanese and Chinese.

<grabs popcorn>

Don't disappoint us guys.





I guess I should offer el cid my avatar ... he might need it !!

Also, I guess Andrew got his question answered ... surprise, surprise ... a few people DID have opinions about this topic !!!

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Post #: 391
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/16/2005 11:41:45 PM   
Big B

 

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So I ran the same test as before - the same 6 Daitai vs the same 6 American Sqdns, this time starting on June 1st 1942 - No Zero Bonus.
The only thing else different in this test was that the Japanese default pilot quality dropped from an average of 81 or 82 previously to an average start of 75 (range was 70 to 80).

Results without the zero bonus in effect: 78 Zeros destroyed a2a vs 189 F4F4s and P40Es.

Looks like a slight drop in kill ratios from a solid 3 to 1 previously to about 2.5 to 1 favoring the Zero.

So that appears to be the Zero Bonus - they destroy about the same number of good allied fighters either way, but take about 16% to 17% more losses without the Bonus.

From the way I look at it, 16% losses more or less taken by the Zeros is almost inconsequential compared to the fact that the game engine (as of the last official patch - 1.62# ?) kills good allied fighters at 2.5 to 3:1 rate overall, even in June 1942.

I don't know the exact loss rate for P40s and F4Fs due to fighter combat in 1942, that will be the next step to investigate.

Regardless - that kind of kill rate seems awfully high to me.




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Post #: 392
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/16/2005 11:52:03 PM   
Oleg Mastruko


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

I guess I should offer el cid my avatar ... he might need it !!



Who's the guy on your avatar? (Perhaps I should recognise it myself but picture is too small, I wouldn't recognise it if it was sculpture depicting, say, my brother )

O.

< Message edited by Oleg Mastruko -- 12/17/2005 12:01:06 AM >


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Post #: 393
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 12:04:38 AM   
mdiehl

 

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quote:

So that appears to be the Zero Bonus - they destroy about the same number of good allied fighters either way, but take about 16% to 17% more losses without the Bonus.


OK. As I understand your findings so far, with the Zero bonus on it is 3:1 in favor of the A6M and without it the ratio is about 2.5:1 in favor of the A6M.

That seems to indicate that:
1. Eliminating the Zero bonus would bring the A2A model closer to RL.
2. It would not be sufficient to fix the A2A model. I think Rtrapasso was probably correct in noting that the Zero bonus is only part of the problem.

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Post #: 394
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 12:08:19 AM   
ChezDaJez


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Hi, Big B,

quote:

So that appears to be the Zero Bonus - they destroy about the same number of good allied fighters either way, but take about 16% to 17% more losses without the Bonus.


How sure are you that it was the bonus that accounted for the difference and not the decrease in experience? Or a combination of the two?

quote:

Regardless - that kind of kill rate seems awfully high to me.


I don't necessarily think it's too high given that this is a sterile test and not reflective of actual operations where fatigue will play a role. You have to remember that for all of 1942 the overall kill ratio between the Wildcat and the Zero was something like 1.2:1 and that includes the Guadalcanal campaign where the Zero was at a severe disadvantage due to the range involved, a fully alerted enemy and having to provide close escort to the bombers. At least during the Philippine campaign the Zeros were allowed to sweep ahead of the bombers.

I would assume a test involving a squadron of Wildcats on CAP at Lunga Pt in Oct 42 will have about a 2:1 kill ratio over a Daitai of Zeros flying down from Rabaul, especially when conducted day after day.

I'm in the process of analyzing a major CV battle that my opponent and I just had in our PBEM. 3 IJN carriers battled a minimum of 2 Brit carriers, 2 fleet CVs and a CVE near Macassar in Sep 42. My Zeros were very experienced (avg of 85) but they were shot down by F4F-3s and Fulmars at a rate of about 1.6:1. I'm tallying the number of fighters involved now. I'll post this once I have the numbers computed.

Chez

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(in reply to Big B)
Post #: 395
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 12:45:11 AM   
mdiehl

 

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quote:

You have to remember that for all of 1942 the overall kill ratio between the Wildcat and the Zero was something like 1.2:1 and that includes the Guadalcanal campaign where the Zero was at a severe disadvantage due to the range involved, a fully alerted enemy and having to provide close escort to the bombers.


The problem is that none of these were a particular or consistent disadvantage for the Zeroes. For example, escorting bombers was an advantage in most cases because it did not change the Zero pilots' mission one iota. With or without the bombers, the Zeroes' job was to down Allied fighters. Having the bombers in company often allowed the Zeroes to get at Allied fighters while their attention was diverted to attacking a bomber. The presence of Japanese bombers made the Allied pilots' job more complicated, not the Japanese pilots. This is particularly supported by the observation that when the Japanese tried "fighter sweep" raids the F4Fs did consistently better than when the Japanese tried mixed Betty and Zero raids. The Allied defenders' best day (for downing Zeroes) occurred on just such an occasion.

Second is that the "advanced warning" system often simply did not work. The consequence was that Japanese planes on several occasions achieved tactical surprise. At best, the "advanced warning" system made tactical surprise less frequent. When the Allied pilots had very good warning, they had just enough time to get their aircraft into the air and climb to a position to engage the Zeroes on equal terms. There are very few instances of Guadalcanal pilots achieving tactical surprise, and usually when it happened it was because the Japanes tried to get fancy with a simultaneous high-level and low-level strike (with the low level element getting bounced by the US defenders).

Finally, the Allied pilots were operating under a severe disadvantage of their own. Lack of sleep owing to nearby infantry combat, intermittent shelling from IJA guns, Japanese infiltrators, night harassment air raids, and several extremely severe shore bombardments. The Allied pilots were also operating at the end of a logistical shoestring with inadequate supplies of spare parts, and at times flying F4Fs that (from fatigue and need for tune up and new parts) were deemed "unfit for service."

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Post #: 396
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 1:02:18 AM   
jwilkerson


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko

quote:

ORIGINAL: jwilkerson

I guess I should offer el cid my avatar ... he might need it !!



Who's the guy on your avatar? (Perhaps I should recognise it myself but picture is too small, I wouldn't recognise it if it was sculpture depicting, say, my brother )

O.


Oh .. that would be "Rodrio Diaz" !!!

( but question is - does anyone know who HE is ? )



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Post #: 397
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 1:03:21 AM   
Big B

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: ChezDaJez

Hi, Big B,

quote:

So that appears to be the Zero Bonus - they destroy about the same number of good allied fighters either way, but take about 16% to 17% more losses without the Bonus.


How sure are you that it was the bonus that accounted for the difference and not the decrease in experience? Or a combination of the two?


There is no way to know for sure if the drop in piolot exp from 81 to 75 didn't play a part in that, I was wondering the same thing when I saw their exp drop also. Personally, I think it must have had some small effect - but since the amount of kills achieved remained at about the same level (and the Allied Pilots stayed tye same) I don't think that exp drop accounted for much of that 16% - 17%.

quote:


quote:

Regardless - that kind of kill rate seems awfully high to me.


I don't necessarily think it's too high given that this is a sterile test and not reflective of actual operations where fatigue will play a role. You have to remember that for all of 1942 the overall kill ratio between the Wildcat and the Zero was something like 1.2:1 and that includes the Guadalcanal campaign where the Zero was at a severe disadvantage due to the range involved, a fully alerted enemy and having to provide close escort to the bombers. At least during the Philippine campaign the Zeros were allowed to sweep ahead of the bombers.

I would assume a test involving a squadron of Wildcats on CAP at Lunga Pt in Oct 42 will have about a 2:1 kill ratio over a Daitai of Zeros flying down from Rabaul, especially when conducted day after day.

I'm in the process of analyzing a major CV battle that my opponent and I just had in our PBEM. 3 IJN carriers battled a minimum of 2 Brit carriers, 2 fleet CVs and a CVE near Macassar in Sep 42. My Zeros were very experienced (avg of 85) but they were shot down by F4F-3s and Fulmars at a rate of about 1.6:1. I'm tallying the number of fighters involved now. I'll post this once I have the numbers computed.

Chez


Well, I think it's way too high, that is - I THINK - it's way to high, I don't know that for an absolute fact, which is why I said it's time to research what really happened.

Of the 3x F4F4 Sqdns, two were USN that had default exp of 75, the other was USMC that in this test had default exp of 65. As it turned out - none of those three F4F sqdns could not handle the 75 exp Zero sqdns as the tally at the end showed...in fact in both tests with these planes I was a little surprised to see the F4F4 get more roughly handled than the P40Es considering the pilot quality of about 75 for Navy vs mostly 55 for Army.

When I get more energy (my back is killing me right now) I might try again with Rabaul and the 'Canal. But I purposely didn't want any side issues like fatigue in these, which is why I put everyone close. In the first three tests I did the Japanese flew from Tainan to Manila day after day but the results were the same...about 3 to 1 for the Zero.

One last thought - for all those wanting to share the Zero Bonus with the KI43, be my guest to try, but don't expect any dramatic changes.

B

(in reply to ChezDaJez)
Post #: 398
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 1:04:09 AM   
rtrapasso


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quote:

Oh .. that would be "Rodrio Diaz" !!!

( but question is - does anyone know who HE is ? )


yeah - your avatar guy (whose secret identity you've already revealed... both here and in prior posts. but i am pledged to secrecy.)

(in reply to jwilkerson)
Post #: 399
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 1:16:50 AM   
pauk


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well, it seems that everyone here like to test. So, i did my own tests too (in the past).

Now, can you tell me, especially persons who DON'T own the game, does it seems right?

quote:

ORIGINAL: pauk

I'm testing frank vs corsair right now (different exp level).

So far i done with frank vs kittyhawk. I was little bit suprised because frank is supposed to be better plane. Both missions were performed ad 20.000 ft (Frank and Kittyhawk)

#1. sweep mission over the San Jose.

12 franks (leader had something about 80/90 ratings/best suited for air transport)- overall exp 64.

vs

12 kittyhawks (leader 64/74; best for the bomber sq. leader) - overall exp 68.

#1a 2 frank destroyed; 1 Kittyhawk destroyed
#1b 3 frank destroyed; Kitty no loses

#2. Sweep mission over SJ

32 frank (same leader); exp 60 and something vs 12 Kittyhawks (same leader, exp level of the group 68)

#2a 4 franks destroyed; 3 kittyhawks destroyed


It's funny how this thread started. Original poster said that he is interested " get rid of the "Zero bonus", possibly replacing it with some other early war advantage to the Japanese aircraft."... then Allied rant begun and claims that they have 8:1 losses vs Zero. Then i offered ac losses screen from my pbem (A2A loses weren't even 3:1). After that original poster said he is interested only in Dutch vs Zero fighers and PBEM losses doesn't help... and so on....

You can back to your little discussion now, and please don't pay attention for above posted tests. They doesn't prove that this game is made for Japs fanboys and it certainly doesn't deserve to even comment...










< Message edited by pauk -- 12/17/2005 1:18:07 AM >


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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 1:27:44 AM   
Big B

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: pauk

It's funny how this thread started. Original poster said that he is interested " get rid of the "Zero bonus", possibly replacing it with some other early war advantage to the Japanese aircraft."... then Allied rant begun and claims that they have 8:1 losses vs Zero. Then i offered ac losses screen from my pbem (A2A loses weren't even 3:1). After that original poster said he is interested only in Dutch vs Zero fighers and PBEM losses doesn't help... and so on....

You can back to your little discussion now, and please don't pay attention for above posted tests. They doesn't prove that this game is made for Japs fanboys and it certainly doesn't deserve to even comment...



Pauk, don't be so grumpy!

I did get an 8 to 1 kill ratio in the 1st test I posted because I ran it under game conditions the likes of which Chez suggested above: A day after day grind with combat losses and fatigue climbing while moral dropped. I didn't rig the test - that's what happened.

B

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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 9:14:35 AM   
pauk


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Big B

Pauk, don't be so grumpy!



...

hi, Big, did not mean to offend you. I agree with your tests, but I do agree with other guys tests - and they are opposite to your tests. So, moral of the story is that we can prove (including me!) everything we want.

The sad side of this thread is that people listening a person who DOESN'T own the game and even discuss about than.

I just want to show that tests aren't prove for anything - i had situation myself in my PBEM when my Zeros were slaughtered with Wildcats (in the very early phase of the Zero bonus). Ok, they were outnumbered and I'm not complain with that. What pisses me off is the way how people here debate.

But, as i mentioned before - it is a mod, and Mighty creators of CHS can do everything they want - but then they shouldn't be suprised when they realize no Japs opponent available.


howgh!

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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 10:05:48 AM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: pauk

... then they shouldn't be suprised when they realize no Japs opponent available.



That will only matter for those of us who do own the game.

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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 11:05:51 AM   
Apollo11


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Hi all,

quote:

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko

Oh boy. mdiehl vs elcid. Guy who didn't even buy the game vs. elcid. Notorious Allied fanboi and one of the most obnoxious posters on WITP board vs. one of the most knowledgable guys on all things Japanese and Chinese.

<grabs popcorn>

Don't disappoint us guys.





Oleg, you didn't know that WWII ended by Christmas 1941 (i.e. 2 weeks after US went to war) because of 1.000.000x better weapons/soldiers/commanders it had?

The Axis simply didn't have a chance (especially thick glassed small stature Japanese who flew German constructed aircraft made of paper)... it was all over in just a few days...


Leo "Apollo11"

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(in reply to Oleg Mastruko)
Post #: 404
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 12:30:20 PM   
ChezDaJez


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quote:

For example, escorting bombers was an advantage in most cases because it did not change the Zero pilots' mission one iota. With or without the bombers, the Zeroes' job was to down Allied fighters. Having the bombers in company often allowed the Zeroes to get at Allied fighters while their attention was diverted to attacking a bomber. The presence of Japanese bombers made the Allied pilots' job more complicated, not the Japanese pilots. This is particularly supported by the observation that when the Japanese tried "fighter sweep" raids the F4Fs did consistently better than when the Japanese tried mixed Betty and Zero raids. The Allied defenders' best day (for downing Zeroes) occurred on just such an occasion.


Tell that to Me-109 pilots in the BOB that escorting bombers was to their advantage. The fighter is at its best as a hunter of planes, not a defender of them. Fighter pilots by nature are offensive minded. The last thing they want is to be tied down by a bomber formation.

Actually you have that turned around, it was the presence of Japanese fighters that made the allied pilots job more complicated. The allied job was to shoot down the bombers not go after fighters.

Your conclusion is correct but for the wrong reason. The Zeros had a reduced loss rate when escorting fighters only because they weren't the primary target. When they conducted a sweep, they were the primary and only target. And with the US advantage in early warning, the Wildcats were often up there waiting for them. But the Japanese also had success with sweeps. They conducted effective fighter sweeps throughout the Philippines and the SRA. Remember Darwin? The Japanese conducted a fighter sweep before the bombers came in.

There is one other point you mentioned in an earlier post concerning the quality of training of US pilots early in the war. try reading a history of the 49th FG upon its arrival in Australia and decide what their level of experience was.

From "The Army Air Forces in World War II", Part 1 "Plans and Early Operations Janaury 1939 to August 1942", Chapter 11, "Defense of Australia". You can find it at that section here.

quote:

The last of the three pursuit groups assigned to Australia, which was the 8th, had disembarked at Brisbane on 10 March, but only the 49th Group, which had come in early in February, was considered ready for combat. The explanation for this and similar delays in preparing other units is readily revealed by a glance at the level of experience of the 49th's 102 pilots at the time of their arrival in the theater. Lt. Col. Paul B. Wurtsmith, its commanding officer, and his executive, Maj. Donald R. Hutchinson, were veteran pilots with 4,800 and 2,600 hours of pursuit time, respectively. Five other pilots had more than 600 hours, and nine were credited with about 15 hours, but the remaining eighty-nine pilots had no pursuit time at all. As for the 35th, its more experienced pilots had been drafted for service with the provisional squadrons hurriedly organized for operation in the Netherlands East Indies, and such of them as had survived had been assigned to rest and recuperation in the hope that their battle experience might soon be put to use in the training of other pilots.


The "Australia at War" website says pretty much the same thing except they also report that 75 of the pilots were fresh from flight school and joined the group as the transport ship was getting ready to leave San Francisco, giving credence to the above claim that the majority of pilots had no pursuit time. This website also gives great detail on the operational and combat loss rates this squadron incurred. If you have any data that disputes this, please indicate your sources.

Another point. You claim that the Zero bonus doesn't capture the "feel and flavor" of the early war. Let's not forget that we should also model allied airgroups that arrived without either aircraft, mechanics or support equipment. Shouldn't we also model the problems created when Australian longshoremen refused to unload the American ships? Shouldn't we also model the huge operational loss rates that the P-40 and other aircraft experienced. I'd be more than willing to lose the Zero bonus if you were willing to accurately model these ops loss rates. Seems only fair doesn't it? The point here is that the early American effort was basically a shoestring operation, beleagured by massive supply, equipment, aircraft and crew shortages. I'm all for historical accuracy but let's make sure that BOTH sides are modeled accurately. Of course, it really doesn't matter, does it. You don't own the game so what do you care?

Chez

< Message edited by ChezDaJez -- 12/17/2005 12:40:31 PM >


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Post #: 405
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 12:35:00 PM   
ChezDaJez


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quote:

in fact in both tests with these planes I was a little surprised to see the F4F4 get more roughly handled than the P40Es considering the pilot quality of about 75 for Navy vs mostly 55 for Army.


From what I understand (I could be wrong here), aircraft speed is a more important factor than pilot experience in the computations. If so that would explain why the Wildcat didn't do as well as the P-40 even though the pilots were more experienced.

BTW, I'm not arguing that it might be too high, I just saying I don't see it as being outside the realm of possibility.

Chez

_____________________________

Ret Navy AWCS (1972-1998)
VP-5, Jacksonville, Fl 1973-78
ASW Ops Center, Rota, Spain 1978-81
VP-40, Mt View, Ca 1981-87
Patrol Wing 10, Mt View, CA 1987-90
ASW Ops Center, Adak, Ak 1990-92
NRD Seattle 1992-96
VP-46, Whidbey Isl, Wa 1996-98

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Post #: 406
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 1:28:24 PM   
Andrew Brown


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quote:

ORIGINAL: pauk
You can back to your little discussion now, and please don't pay attention for above posted tests. They doesn't prove that this game is made for Japs fanboys and it certainly doesn't deserve to even comment...


I, at least, pay attention to all tests or results that are posted, even if I do want to concentrate on the early war period, when the Zero bonus does have an effect.

Andrew

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Post #: 407
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 5:28:49 PM   
Big B

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: ChezDaJez

quote:

in fact in both tests with these planes I was a little surprised to see the F4F4 get more roughly handled than the P40Es considering the pilot quality of about 75 for Navy vs mostly 55 for Army.


From what I understand (I could be wrong here), aircraft speed is a more important factor than pilot experience in the computations. If so that would explain why the Wildcat didn't do as well as the P-40 even though the pilots were more experienced.

BTW, I'm not arguing that it might be too high, I just saying I don't see it as being outside the realm of possibility.

Chez


Hi Chez,

I would definitely agree that the P40Es speed was an asset that stood it much better than the F4F4s speed.
As to the loss rate - I don't see the it outside the realm of possibility on occasion, I just have a problem with it being in the realm of consistency

A word about what the tests showed:

In the five long tests that I posted - I regret that I only posted the comprehensive ARRs of 48 combats for one of those tests. However, it was representative of what happened in all of them. If you scroll through them you will see that the individual results varied for each battle, and indeed the Americans came out on top in a few - this demonstrates that no matter what the overall trend will be - each air battle has a random factor that makes it unique and unpredictable.

However equally clear is this: the game engine produced 15,943 sorties for me, approximately 8,000 of them were combat sorties resulting in contact with the enemy, about 4,000 per side (the side flying CAP will fly twice as many sorties as the side flying Sweep missions - once in each AM and PM phase). Those 8,000 combat sorties produced losses of 261 Zeros a2a combat against 743 P40s and F4Fs lost, all of which were essentially equal combats (actually, most of the combats were on terms of 4 to 3, or 3 to 2 numeric advantage for the Americans, and in 2/3 the combined total combats - the Americans held altitude advantage as well). At the end of each of the 5 month long tests, the kill rate amounted to about 3 to 1 for the Zero, even after the Bonus ended - and with Japanese Daitai exp (75) equaling USN VF exp (75).

So though individual air battles all look different, when you put to together any long string of them the Zero will prevail at about 3 to 1 with this game engine. 15,000 sorties in a large enough sample to establish that I believe.

The whole thing started as a test for the Zero Bonus. I have changed my mind about the 'Bonus' and I am now convinced that the Bonus is of trifling significance (whether the Bonus is 'justified' or not) compared to the basic air combat parameters of the game as it currently stands.

A last note: This thread has been heated - that's fine, it just shows people care one way or another. I just wanted to say I don't take offense at any insults thrown in my direction - so don't worry about that. I'm a big boy with a pretty thick skin.

Cheers

B

LATE EDIT: For the record - I do not think the game is "Broken" or "Unplayable". I am just thinking that air combat needs looking into to - to bring it more in line with real life results....appearantly everyone has their own idea of what that should be. For me, at this point, that means definatively examining what happened ITRW and how it happened and then looking again at game values and seeing how close it comes to recreating RL over a wide sampling of results...

< Message edited by Big B -- 12/17/2005 7:00:58 PM >

(in reply to ChezDaJez)
Post #: 408
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 8:05:58 PM   
el cid again

 

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quote:

I haven't looked at CHS for quite some time, but didn't your airplane guy already reduce the Zero advantage by gimping the Zero itself ....along with most of the rest of the Jap planes?


I have done a comprehensive review of Japanese air forces, beginning with the aircraft themselves. I found virtually no case where a Japanese plane had been "gimped" - represented with less than historical data.
I found many cases of correct data. Where inaccurate, the data was so uniformly exaggerated I suspected secret JFB influence! So -

The simple answer is no, the Jap planes were not gimped.

And if my proposals are adopted by CHS many are going to lose more performance still - with the rare exception that they gain it.

The most common exaggeration was exaggerated range performance - although this MAY be what you are talking about for the Zero. The notes seem to say that it was reduced in range to be "more realistic." I have no clue what that may mean? I use the standard data - and it hardly exaggerates what Tinian Air Group actually achieved operationally. So if THAT was your problem - be assured that, whatever it should be, it will be.

CHS in theory, and Joe Wilkerson (my supervisor for air) and I in particular, are going for scholarly standards of accuracy where possible, and best reasonable estimate where not. We won't give any advantage or disadvantage to any plane or unit on principle.

(in reply to doktorblood)
Post #: 409
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 8:11:31 PM   
el cid again

 

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quote:

As to the loss rate - I don't see the it outside the realm of possibility on occasion, I just have a problem with it being in the realm of consistency


Take a look at Bloody Shambles. If you think the Zero is too effective in the early campaigns, you may have to revise your view. We did not compete. Not a single Marine aviator in the Midway fighter group was able to remain in the sky - even for a few minutes - against the "lesser experienced" pilots sent - because the more experienced were held against the possibility of a carrier being detected. And that was pretty far into the war - nothing as bad as the opening days.

(in reply to Big B)
Post #: 410
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 8:26:59 PM   
el cid again

 

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quote:

The Zero bonus is a combination of things - technical and tactical.

None of which have yet been identified as being intrinsically something other than a property of the aircraft itself (mvr, range) that is already modeled in the game through other mechanisms.


None? Only if you don't read the available material.

A good start is the Hineri-komi maneuver. See Appendix 9 of Sunburst, Mark R. Peattle, USNI - which is devoted to the subject. It will help you understand the maneuver, its origins, and why it didn't matter forever.
That alone justifies Matrix application of the Zero Bonus as written - in a time limited way.

(in reply to mdiehl)
Post #: 411
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 8:30:42 PM   
Big B

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: el cid again

quote:

As to the loss rate - I don't see the it outside the realm of possibility on occasion, I just have a problem with it being in the realm of consistency


Take a look at Bloody Shambles. If you think the Zero is too effective in the early campaigns, you may have to revise your view. We did not compete. Not a single Marine aviator in the Midway fighter group was able to remain in the sky - even for a few minutes - against the "lesser experienced" pilots sent - because the more experienced were held against the possibility of a carrier being detected. And that was pretty far into the war - nothing as bad as the opening days.


I would love someone to tabulate ALL the data in Bloody Shambles!
What I am saying, and what I have found, is that a consistant Zero Kill Rate of approx 3 to 1 under conditions of 1:1 odds with P40s and F4Fs (even 'after' the Zero Bonus) is too high in my opinion.

If you or ANYONE will be so kind as to tabulate ALL the data in 'Bloody Shambles' and 'The First Team' so we may see what odds were faced in the air - compared to planes shot down - I would be delighted, and it may lay this to rest.

Unfortunately for me - I don't own those volumes at the moment - so I can only go by recollections of histories I have read over the years.

If it turns out that in 1942 Zeros did indeed knock off P40s and Wildcats at an overall 3:1 rate under conditions of equal numbers engaged, fine - I'll accept that!

But I still don't think that that is going to prove to be the case when the historical data is tabulated. Again - I am stressing 'approximately equal numbers of aircraft in a2a' ...not 3:1 odds or greater, nor ambushes on landings and take-offs etc.

B

(in reply to el cid again)
Post #: 412
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 8:36:48 PM   
el cid again

 

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quote:

The Zero was really a pioneer in some respects (cannon for example - although Thailand had a tiny number of planes earlier).

Uh, no. The Zero's cannon was inferior to comparable A2A aircraft cannon used by the US and the Allies and the Euroaxis. The first really meaty A2A cannon was the 37mm used on the iron dog in 1939 --


"The P-39 Airacobra was one of the outstanding examples of an aircraft which on paper seemed likely to be a world-beater, but which in practice turned out to be an also-ran." THAT P-39?

The problem is that you are not looking at time data. Fighter planes evolved fast in that era, and EVENTUALLY the Allies fielded better figher cannon than the Zero had. But the Zero entered PRODUCTION in 1940, while the P-39 only flew for the first time in 1941. It was so bad, for several reasons (including that the carbon monoxide in the cockpit was at fatal levels if it fired its guns!) that only 20 of the first 80 were even built!
And it was not until its FOURTH model that serious production orders were placed. AT THE TIME of its introduction, you cannot compare the P-39 with a Zero because there was NO P-39 to compare it with! Thus - if you wholly disregard the unimpressive record of the P-39 later - it still is the wrong subject to use in an argument - when it does not exist yet in combat useful form.

(in reply to mdiehl)
Post #: 413
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 8:55:50 PM   
el cid again

 

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quote:

The ME109 was the first operational a/c to go into mass production with a 20mm.


Perhaps you are quibbling here? I note the words "mass production" which may be meant to qualify your remarks so as to appear to contradict my assertion re cannon. The Zero is a PRE WWII ear aircraft - at least from the US point of view. So any plane EARILER than the Zero with cannon is going to be ordered by the production standards of the 1930s - not those of WWII. But even so, I think even you have to conceed that the P-35 Hawk was a "mass produced" aircraft. It was offered with 20 mm guns - although these were placed in service only the Thailand - just as I said.

I think you do not read strictly - like a technical person does. The Zero was revolutionary in terms of its operational impact because, at the time it entered production, fighter planes (outside of Thailand) were armed with machine guns - usually .30 caliber machine guns. Years later, this was not revolutionary - only when it was introduced. Things changed - which is why the Zero Bonus goes away. It is a fine rule, successfully simulating a real advantage that did not last. The rule is fine in part because it is both correct and time limited.

(in reply to mdiehl)
Post #: 414
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 9:05:08 PM   
Oleg Mastruko


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quote:

ORIGINAL: el cid again

The most common exaggeration was exaggerated range performance - although this MAY be what you are talking about for the Zero. The notes seem to say that it was reduced in range to be "more realistic." I have no clue what that may mean? I use the standard data - and it hardly exaggerates what Tinian Air Group actually achieved operationally.



In CHS Zero range is reduced from 11 in the original game to 10. 10 hexes is not enough to reach Guadalcanal from Rabaul, for example - which is something Japanese pilots did routinely as we all know (well, in as much as we can apply the word "routinely").

O.


_____________________________


(in reply to el cid again)
Post #: 415
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/17/2005 9:11:43 PM   
Big B

 

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From: Old Los Angeles pre-1960
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko

quote:

ORIGINAL: el cid again

The most common exaggeration was exaggerated range performance - although this MAY be what you are talking about for the Zero. The notes seem to say that it was reduced in range to be "more realistic." I have no clue what that may mean? I use the standard data - and it hardly exaggerates what Tinian Air Group actually achieved operationally.



In CHS Zero range is reduced from 11 in the original game to 10. 10 hexes is not enough to reach Guadalcanal from Rabaul, for example - which is something Japanese pilots did routinely as we all know (well, in as much as we can apply the word "routinely").

O.




(opens the door...clinking of glasses and boisterous conversation can be heard as the door opens, then as it closes again behind him - silence)..

"In CHS, Zeros can't reach Lunga from Rabaul?...Now that's quite an error!,
(raises glass) Well, Cheerio! -going back to the drunken party!"

(Dissappears backinto the next room)

B

(in reply to Oleg Mastruko)
Post #: 416
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/18/2005 1:12:38 AM   
ChezDaJez


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quote:

LATE EDIT: For the record - I do not think the game is "Broken" or "Unplayable". I am just thinking that air combat needs looking into to - to bring it more in line with real life results....appearantly everyone has their own idea of what that should be. For me, at this point, that means definatively examining what happened ITRW and how it happened and then looking again at game values and seeing how close it comes to recreating RL over a wide sampling of results...


Hi, Big B,

I just tabulated my opponents and my fighter losses in air-air combat from our current PBEM. The date is 9/16/42 and I am the Japanese. I am not seeing the types of air losses that others do. To date, I have lost a total of 690 fighters of all types and my opponent has lost 834 fighters. I've listed them below:

Japanese
A6M2 Zero: 510
A6M3 Zero: 29
Ki-43-IIb Oscar: 124
Ki-61 Tony: 16
Ki-44 IIB Tojo: 11
Total: 690 (The Tojo and Tony are new aircraft that I am upgrading to at the moment so have not seen extensive combat)

Allied
F4F-3 Wildcat: 15
F4F-4 Wildcat: 124
P-40B Warhawk: 202
P-40E Warhawk: 224
P-39 Aircobra: 70
Kittyhawk I: 25
Hurricane IIb: 100
Fulmar: 68
Spitfire Vb: 6
Total: 834

Basic ratio: 1.2:1 J:A overall losses. Some of my air losses were against his 4E bombers and acount for maybe 50 Zeros plus the 27 Tojos/Tonys. I learned very quickly I couldn't take on 200 heavies and survive so I have not intercepted his bombers in the last 60 days (except for the Tojos and Tonys in the last 2 days). So even subtracting those out (and the Zeros vs heavies is just an estimate) increases the ratio to 1.36:1.

I do a lot of on map training and I will not attack when there is little or no chance of hurting the enemy. Unfortunately, my opponent has just invaded the SRA from Derby.

We are currently engaged in a massive land/air/sea battle around Maumere involving 2 Brit CVs, 2 US CVs, 1 US CVE, 12 battleships, over 30 cruisers and 400 heavy bombers. I am opposing him with the remains of KB and baby KB (7 carriers total) and 8 battleships. Unfortunately I have only about 15 cruisers available. 8 Betty groups (all 75+ experience) also are there.

Anyways, those are my numbers. I try to play as historically as I can, fighting when I must, waiting when I can, running when there is no other option.

Chez


_____________________________

Ret Navy AWCS (1972-1998)
VP-5, Jacksonville, Fl 1973-78
ASW Ops Center, Rota, Spain 1978-81
VP-40, Mt View, Ca 1981-87
Patrol Wing 10, Mt View, CA 1987-90
ASW Ops Center, Adak, Ak 1990-92
NRD Seattle 1992-96
VP-46, Whidbey Isl, Wa 1996-98

(in reply to Big B)
Post #: 417
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/18/2005 1:23:16 AM   
mdiehl

 

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quote:

Tell that to Me-109 pilots in the BOB that escorting bombers was to their advantage. The fighter is at its best as a hunter of planes, not a defender of them. Fighter pilots by nature are offensive minded. The last thing they want is to be tied down by a bomber formation.


"Tied to the bomber formation" is a matter of doctrine. Zeroes attacking Guadalcanal were not closely tied to the bomber formations. There weren't, for example, orders limiting the altitude or distance that they had to maintain with bombers outside of the initial approach. They weren't for example operating under altitude restirctions that affected Allied fighters escorting hvy bombers in the PTO. And in any case, the job of the fighter on the offensive is still limited to attacking enemy fighters. This is in contrast to the fighter on the defensive, that has to attack enemy bombers while avoiding enemy fighters... a far more complex task than mere escort.

quote:

Actually you have that turned around, it was the presence of Japanese fighters that made the allied pilots job more complicated. The allied job was to shoot down the bombers not go after fighters.


I did not "turn around" anything. I noted that the job of the defending interceptor is complicated because it of necessity has to avoid fighters (if they can, often not doable) while attacking bombers. No matter which side of the coin you call, it is a more complicated job than attacking a single-type enemy formation.

quote:

Your conclusion is correct but for the wrong reason. The Zeros had a...


My conclusion is absolutely correct for exactly the reason that I stated and that you copied in your reply.

quote:

When they conducted a sweep, they were the primary and only target.


Precisely. You have argued that the defense had an easy time of it which is flawed analysis. The job of the defense was more challenging when multiple types were engaged. In multitype formations, the escorting Zeros had an easier time of it because Allied defenders had a more complicated mission that often made them easier to get at. In more pure engagements where Zeros were just pitted against F4Fs, the Zeroes suffered greater losses. Therefore your claim that the presence of bombers made the Zeroes' job more difficult is contradicted empirically by the data.

quote:

And with the US advantage in early warning, the Wildcats were often up there waiting for them.


That is an overstatement. According to contemporary sources the early warning advantage gave the F4Fs enough time to meet the zero on equal terms. The effect was that the Zeroes did not routinely have positional advantage (except of course when the early warning system failed, which in the early days it frequently did). That does not constitute a special advantage for the Allies, it just means that in judging the general situation, were one to simulate it, there would be no special propensity for either side to achieve tactical susprise.

quote:

They conducted effective fighter sweeps throughout the Philippines and the SRA. Remember Darwin? The Japanese conducted a fighter sweep before the bombers came in.


That is correct. And in the overwhelming majority of successful sweeps, as at Darwin, the advantage of tactical surprise allowed Japanese to nail aircraft on the runway, while landing, or while taking off. That result does not suggest that Zeroes were better aircraft or Zero pilots better pilots, it suggests that local tactical surprise works to the advantage of the one with the initiative. Had the Japanese conducted the Darwin raid with, for example, F2A3s (were such a thing possible) and relatively novice aircrews the results would have been substantially the same.

quote:

There is one other point you mentioned in an earlier post concerning the quality of training of US pilots early in the war. try reading a history of the 49th FG upon its arrival in Australia and decide what their level of experience was.


I've read most of the relevant histories. I'm not sure which of my arguments you imagine yourself to be refuting. I have stipulated that the Allied pilots in general did not have as much air time as the Japanese ones and that for the most part the difference strikes me as irrelevent. Since my particular recommendation all along has been that the Zero bonus not apply when engaging USN pilots, I do not see how the history of the 49FG is relevant to my observations in this thread.

quote:

Another point. You claim that the Zero bonus doesn't capture the "feel and flavor" of the early war. Let's not forget that we should also model allied airgroups that arrived without either aircraft, mechanics or support equipment. Shouldn't we also model the problems created when Australian longshoremen refused to unload the American ships?


The game presumes to give the players control over logistical functions. If the Allied player chooses to send his aircraft without "aviation support" that is the Allied player's choice to make. Your observation about poor initial logistics has no obvious connection to the argument--- except perhaps to reinforce my observation that many of the Japanese early successes in the Phillippines and Indonesia are substantially attributable to the fact that allied aircraft were at the end of a virtually nonexistent logistical rope. I fully agree (if it is your suggestion) that the Allied logistical position in the PI, Indonesia, Burma, northern Australia, and SoPac should be weak at the start of the game. How the Allied player remedies that weakness is (in the game's current formulation) one of the problems that the Allied player gets to decide how to resolve.

quote:

Shouldn't we also model the huge operational loss rates that the P-40 and other aircraft experienced.


Again this has nothing directly to do with the results of the air to air model. At present operational loss rates are in fact modeled in the game. If it is your contention that they are not high enough perhaps that is some other aspect that needs to be examined. Certainly operational losses will be tied to logistics, and players that fail to provide sufficient aviation support and supplies do seem to suffer higher operational losses. Naturally, these should affect both players to the degree that they keep track of their logistical situations.

quote:

I'd be more than willing to lose the Zero bonus if you were willing to accurately model these ops loss rates. Seems only fair doesn't it? The point here is that the early American effort was basically a shoestring operation, beleagured by massive supply, equipment, aircraft and crew shortages.


Seems right to me. The Japanese logistical position at Rabaul was also quite weak in the early going, and in Indonesia and northern New Guinea. These are naturally problems that both players should have to resolve (keeping bases in supply, providing sufficient aviation support, and maintaining decent facilities that in the game are abstracted as runway/airfield development).

quote:

I'm all for historical accuracy but let's make sure that BOTH sides are modeled accurately. Of course, it really doesn't matter, does it. You don't own the game so what do you care?


I could ask why you care since you already own the game. It is the same logical position... that owners of the game should want to see it improved and that those looking for a better game would want to purchase one if it repairs glaring weaknesses extant in the current version. I'd buy it were it not (a) deeply flawed, (b) pretty much the same product as Gary Grigsby's Pacific War (which I already own).

_____________________________

Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?

(in reply to jwilkerson)
Post #: 418
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/18/2005 2:51:49 AM   
pauk


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hear, hear!

The Grand Priest who don't own the game said the truth, only the truth and nothing but the truth!



< Message edited by pauk -- 12/18/2005 3:13:44 AM >


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(in reply to mdiehl)
Post #: 419
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/18/2005 4:11:21 AM   
Demosthenes


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This is one time too many to let this slip.

I am sorry - but I have noted many here seem to have only one response to Mdiehl - and that is to deride him because he admitted he returned his copy of WitP because he was disappointed with it and also UV .

Whatever.

That does not mean his insights and knowledge is off base or irrelevant.

Time after time I have read this man's arguments and they are informative and sound. If some of you out there can find no other way to debate him other than name calling or saying "you don't own the game so we can ignore you" then I submit YOU have nothing to offer in a debate - otherwise you would try debating instead of insulting!

ALL of you know who I am talking to, and for this I do NOT apologize.

(in reply to pauk)
Post #: 420
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