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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opinions?

 
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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 5:47:00 AM   
Tristanjohn


Posts: 3027
Joined: 5/1/2002
From: Daly City CA USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheElf

quote:

ORIGINAL: Demosthenes


quote:

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko

Removing the smallish, insignificant bonus this poor, vulnerable, but historically important aircraft has, and that has been added for the sake of historical chrome, would simply be very very wrong decision. Discussing it on 18 pages I find nothing short of laughable.

O.



Well be that as it may, it seems to me this is not 18 pages of discussing the pros and cons of the ZB, it looks more like alot of laundry being aired.


You couldn't be more right Demos. 90% of threads on this forum are just that. The same actors playing out the same script on the same stage...like some bad 3rd rate thespian group doing a remake of Hair on a $100 budget and a can of Aquanet.

It usually starts with someone interested in real feedback or a noob who's missed the last 10 iterations of the particular matrix(flavor) of the day, and asks an "innocent" question. First someone replies with a quick yea/nea then sources are cited, and then you can practically here the collective "thud" of large reference books slamming down on 100 different computer desks, then the buzz of pages being hurriedly flipped to the correct page where the golden passage is highlighted & double underlined from previous iterations of the matrix.

And so...it goes on...and on...and....


In its own way I find that to be hilarious. And well written, too.


(in reply to TheElf)
Post #: 541
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 6:15:05 AM   
Andrew Brown


Posts: 5007
Joined: 9/5/2000
From: Hex 82,170
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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs
Agreed - however this presents a problem with the current game engine. There is pilot experience and aircraft characteristics, but there is no 'doctrine' or tactics model. I believe that the zero bonus is meant to reflect those elements plus perhaps some less tangibles. Given the fact that the situation (per the designers belief) changes after a few game months, an expiring and declining bonus is the best way to go.

Resorting to lowering the Allied pilots' experience (relative to Japan's pilots' experience) will have greater consequences. Just consider how much lower most Allied pilot experience is already (versus Japan pilot exp.).

In my games I also find that the relative experience of pilots is a much greater factor than the zero bonus.


I believe you when you say that the consquences of lowering Allied experience may be great. That is one reason I want to test it. Given that the zero bonus, according to some people, and to some who have done some testing, does not have a huge effect, the experience reduction would probably have to be quite small.

And you are right about doctrine not being modelled separately. Some have commented that it could be considered to be part of the "experience" number - supported by the increasing values of the Allied pilots, for example, as the game progresses their doctrine improves.

quote:

I still favor leaving the bonus as is for the Zero. If the Oscar enjoyed the same advantage for the first few months IRL, then go ahead and give it to the Oscar as well.


The fact that the bonus singles out the Zero is one of the things I don't like about it. But I still believe that a combination of aircraft stats (such as manoverability for the Zero) and lower initial Allied experience (at least in CBI and DEI) should result in the same practical effect of a Zero bonus, but applied in a less specific way.

It may be that BOTH approaches result in a similar outcome, but even so my personal preference is not to rely on an artificial bonus, but to rely on the game mechanics themselves. After all, if the game mechanics alone cannot simulate this period of the conflict, then how well do they simulate other periods? It may be that the game mecahnics themselves need some tweaking.

quote:

Regarding the bloodiness of air combat - should be looked at as a separate issue.


I agree.

quote:

As always, I am in your debt for your work on CHS and will be grateful whatever you decide.


Thanks. Hopefully a new CHS update will be available in the next few weeks...

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 542
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 6:35:21 AM   
Big B

 

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From: Old Los Angeles pre-1960
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Andrew Brown


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs
Agreed - however this presents a problem with the current game engine. There is pilot experience and aircraft characteristics, but there is no 'doctrine' or tactics model. I believe that the zero bonus is meant to reflect those elements plus perhaps some less tangibles. Given the fact that the situation (per the designers belief) changes after a few game months, an expiring and declining bonus is the best way to go.

Resorting to lowering the Allied pilots' experience (relative to Japan's pilots' experience) will have greater consequences. Just consider how much lower most Allied pilot experience is already (versus Japan pilot exp.).

In my games I also find that the relative experience of pilots is a much greater factor than the zero bonus.


I believe you when you say that the consquences of lowering Allied experience may be great. That is one reason I want to test it. Given that the zero bonus, according to some people, and to some who have done some testing, does not have a huge effect, the experience reduction would probably have to be quite small.

And you are right about doctrine not being modelled separately. Some have commented that it could be considered to be part of the "experience" number - supported by the increasing values of the Allied pilots, for example, as the game progresses their doctrine improves.

quote:

I still favor leaving the bonus as is for the Zero. If the Oscar enjoyed the same advantage for the first few months IRL, then go ahead and give it to the Oscar as well.


The fact that the bonus singles out the Zero is one of the things I don't like about it. But I still believe that a combination of aircraft stats (such as manoverability for the Zero) and lower initial Allied experience (at least in CBI and DEI) should result in the same practical effect of a Zero bonus, but applied in a less specific way.

It may be that BOTH approaches result in a similar outcome, but even so my personal preference is not to rely on an artificial bonus, but to rely on the game mechanics themselves. After all, if the game mechanics alone cannot simulate this period of the conflict, then how well do they simulate other periods? It may be that the game mecahnics themselves need some tweaking.

quote:

Regarding the bloodiness of air combat - should be looked at as a separate issue.


I agree.

quote:

As always, I am in your debt for your work on CHS and will be grateful whatever you decide.


Thanks. Hopefully a new CHS update will be available in the next few weeks...



Andrew, witpqs, since I'm the guy who put those tests together (about 8000 combat sorties under equal conditions) allow me to weigh in for a moment. (With hundreds of posts over 18 pages and growing - I can't believe no one ever systematiclly tested this before)

I am with Andrew in dislikeing the ZB because it is one a/c specific. But I am confident in claiming that the ZB is almost inconsequential in effect when compared to pilot exp. The default pilot exp ratings (about 75-80 for Zero pilots 'early' vs about 53-56 for Allies) is what drives the kill ratios.
I am confident you could remove the ZB completely and not notice Zeros getting less kills than they were with the ZB. What you will see is the Zero casualties climb a little - that's what I saw in my last test in June '42 without the ZB.

If there is anything meaningful to be tinkered with - it's exp ratings. Forget the ZB no matter which side of this debate your on - it's a red-herring from GG, in fact he may well have done that just for a psycological effect on players - because it certainly dosen't seem to have more teeth than that.

EXPERIENCE RATINGS

(in reply to Andrew Brown)
Post #: 543
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 8:10:35 AM   
TheElf


Posts: 3870
Joined: 5/14/2003
From: Pax River, MD
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Tristanjohn


quote:

ORIGINAL: TheElf

quote:

ORIGINAL: Demosthenes


quote:

ORIGINAL: Oleg Mastruko

Removing the smallish, insignificant bonus this poor, vulnerable, but historically important aircraft has, and that has been added for the sake of historical chrome, would simply be very very wrong decision. Discussing it on 18 pages I find nothing short of laughable.

O.



Well be that as it may, it seems to me this is not 18 pages of discussing the pros and cons of the ZB, it looks more like alot of laundry being aired.


You couldn't be more right Demos. 90% of threads on this forum are just that. The same actors playing out the same script on the same stage...like some bad 3rd rate thespian group doing a remake of Hair on a $100 budget and a can of Aquanet.

It usually starts with someone interested in real feedback or a noob who's missed the last 10 iterations of the particular matrix(flavor) of the day, and asks an "innocent" question. First someone replies with a quick yea/nea then sources are cited, and then you can practically here the collective "thud" of large reference books slamming down on 100 different computer desks, then the buzz of pages being hurriedly flipped to the correct page where the golden passage is highlighted & double underlined from previous iterations of the matrix.

And so...it goes on...and on...and....


In its own way I find that to be hilarious. And well written, too.




Thanks TJ, I hold compliments from you in high regard and don;t doubt you wouldn't say if you didn't mean it.

Now that this matter is settled, what say we all go over to the "Operationally- Why Japan lost" thread and see what diesel7013 has to say on the matter...? Surely it is something refreshing and inarguable? (is that a word?)

I've got dibs on Morison!

_____________________________

IN PERPETUUM SINGULARIS SEDES



(in reply to Tristanjohn)
Post #: 544
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 8:44:43 AM   
ChezDaJez


Posts: 3436
Joined: 11/12/2004
From: Chehalis, WA
Status: offline
quote:

Thank you, Steve. Merry Christmas to you and your family as well. How are you doing on those grueling courses?


Still nose to the grinder with the courses. The workload has definitely gone up (40 hrs/wk class time plus homework) now that I am actually attending nursing school and not just doing pre-reqs. However I graduate this June as an LPN and then I get to go back in the fall for RN. Then it will be back to work for a living.

quote:

On and on and on they argue, without good sense or purpose...


Well, you haven't missed much here. Same old stuff.

Chez

_____________________________

Ret Navy AWCS (1972-1998)
VP-5, Jacksonville, Fl 1973-78
ASW Ops Center, Rota, Spain 1978-81
VP-40, Mt View, Ca 1981-87
Patrol Wing 10, Mt View, CA 1987-90
ASW Ops Center, Adak, Ak 1990-92
NRD Seattle 1992-96
VP-46, Whidbey Isl, Wa 1996-98

(in reply to Tristanjohn)
Post #: 545
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 10:56:36 AM   
m10bob


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Joined: 11/3/2002
From: Dismal Seepage Indiana
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Dammit !!!!!!!!!!!!!! You guys are slipping !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nobody has been called a "fanboy" in the last 2 pages !!!!!!!!!!!
Thank goodness my buddy Oleg has at least put forth the effort to deride all and sundry by proclaiming derisive laughter on his part...
Let's see now, didn't Monty Python have a line like "I fart in your general direction !" (?)

< Message edited by m10bob -- 12/20/2005 3:07:46 PM >


_____________________________




(in reply to ChezDaJez)
Post #: 546
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 5:40:17 PM   
mdiehl

 

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Joined: 10/21/2000
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quote:

Agreed - however this presents a problem with the current game engine. There is pilot experience and aircraft characteristics, but there is no 'doctrine' or tactics model. I believe that the zero bonus is meant to reflect those elements plus perhaps some less tangibles. Given the fact that the situation (per the designers belief) changes after a few game months, an expiring and declining bonus is the best way to go.


The problem is that this slant presumes superior Japanese doctrine or tactics absent any historical evidence of superior Japanese doctrine or tactics. Indeed, the bulk of the evidence about these two components suggests that the Japanese were behind the times doctrinally and tactically, even by 1941 standards, and they slid further behind the opposition until late 1943.

Morever, whatever you imagine to be theoretically correct about describing the relative merits of Japanese and Allied pilots, the fact remains that the F4Fs from the get go fought the A6M pilots to a draw, resulting in an overall kill ratio of 1:1 (or slightly better, favoring the Wildcats) in fighters lost to enemy fighters, and an overall aircraft kill ratio (all types so this is a broad brush) of 2:1 to 2.5:1 favoring the Allies. A model that produces 4:1 favoring Japan, or even 2:1 favoring Japan, is a lousy model for plausible resolution of A2A combat.

As to "superior Japanese doctrine." At some time you have to ask yourself this: "If the Zero was better than the Allied aircraft, and the Japanese pilots were substantially more experienced in ways that matter, and if the Japanese pilots had as you allege superior doctrine or tactics, why did inferior USN pilots in inferior USN planes flying inferior USN doctrine and tactics consistently beat the Zero or at least fight it to a draw?"

(Every time I have posed that question the respons has been a suite of cherry-picking excuses to explain inferior results turned in by the Zero pilots to contingent circumstances, yet the proponents of the "superior Zero" propaganda refuse to analyze Zero successes in light of contingent circumstances that often favored the Zeros.)

Any rational analysis indicates that the air to air combat resolution model is deeply flawed as judge by the results it generates. The Zero bonus may be a minor contributor to the flaw. All that indicates is that the Zero bonus needs to be eliminated and other changes need to be implemented as well.

_____________________________

Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 547
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 6:00:06 PM   
Sardaukar


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So you are saying that because USN pilots (in relatively few engagements) stood one to one with Japanese, it means that US Army, Dutch, British, Australian and NZ pilots would perform as well ?? All changes reflect to all nationalities, so USN records are just one part.

(in reply to mdiehl)
Post #: 548
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 6:01:49 PM   
Berkut

 

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mdiehl, do you ahve any stats that reflect something OTHER THAN the F4F against the Zero in what, two or three encounters during the time frame in question?

I mean, the Zero fought a lot more aircraft than the F4F - in fact I would suspect that the F4F represents a small subset of the opponenets of the Zero during the time that the bonus would be in effect.

Correct me if I am wrong, but you seem t be jumping between two extremes. One the one hand, you insist we ONLY look at encounters between the Zero and USN F4Fs, and then you turn around and want to look at *overall* Allies vs. Japanese results for the entire war. Niether of those cases are a good judge of the A6M Zero and its historical record in the first few months of the war.

One the one hand, you want to look at a very specific and statistically trivial encounter where hte Zero was fought to a draw, and ask us to conclude things about the Zero *in general*, and then on the other hand you ask to use statistics about all Japanese aircraft aagain all Allied aircraft over th entire war, and draw that same conclusion.

Wouldn't it make more sense to look at the performance of the A6M Zero against a variety of aircraft in the period of time specified, see how it performs in WitP (and I ahve yet to see evidence that the overall kill rates are as out of whack in WitP as claimed - I certainly have not achieved anything like 4:1 overall kill ratios in my games as the Japanese player in the first two months), and figure out if there is an issue.

From where I sit, it looks to me like you are the one doing the cherry picking.

(in reply to mdiehl)
Post #: 549
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 6:20:00 PM   
mdiehl

 

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It's not "statistically trivial" IMO. IN face to face encounters between the F4F and the A6M the F4F consistently won or achieved a draw. These include Coral Sea, Midway VMF, Midway USN, and 4 months of consistent air combat over Guadalcanal. The only clear cut victory was at Wake in Dec 1941. In light of the VMF F4Fs victory at Midway, I'd say that Wake and Midway VMF come out as a wash.

I've covered in some detail reasons why the USN did quite well. Better training at deflection shooting and better tactical doctrine being a big part of that. My suggestion all along has been that the flaws in the A2A model affects the game strategically because it makes risking Allied CVs against comparable numbers of Japanese CVs a very inadvisable idea. That is why I have suggested that part of the deal is to eliminate the Zero bonus.

From a result oriented POV you might strike a balance between the mystic cult of japanese superiority and the historical data by (a) leaving the ZB in, and (b) increasing the F4F EXP levels by 20 points across the board, (b2) put in a "Wildcat bonus" that has the net effect of reducing Wildcat vs A6M losses to about 1:1.

Now, if you want to impose the "ZB" because of results of RAF, USAAF pilots vs Japanese ones, I'd want to know what the historical kill ratios were of these aircraft. I'd also want to know why any early Japanese success are presumed a consequence of the mystic invincibility of the Zero rather than, say, the fact that most Allied a/c in Malaya, the PI, Indonesia, and for the first couple months at Port Moresby, were operating on a logistical shoestring from crummy airbases against a numerically superior foe that had the strategic initiative.

For ex many of the worst Allied army pilot defeats occurred because of "the Bounce" so to speak. At Darwin, for example, most of the P40s were shot down taking off from the airfield. I submit that Chinese pilots in Polikarpovs could have achieved the same result at Darwin had the Allied pilots been caught with their planes on the runway.

quote:

Wouldn't it make more sense to look at the performance of the A6M Zero against a variety of aircraft in the period of time specified


It might if the fighting doctrine of USN/USMC and USAAF were substantially the same. It is not clear to me that this is correct, even for prior to 7 Dec 1941. USN pilots were intensively trained at deflection shooting... far more so than their enemy counterparts. I have no information on USAAF pilots or RAF pilots. I imagine that the RAF Hurricane pilots were good at it by virtue of experience with the ME109s, but as I alluded before, in some ways "prior experience vs the ME109" was probably counterproductive when fighting the A6M. Indeed, it is for that reason that I think the only reasonable case for having a Zero Bonus at all is based on the results of Hurricane vs A6M engagements in continental SE Asia.

In a similar fashion, prior experience for Japanese pilots fighting Chinese pilots in China was probably counterproductive for fighting against USN pilots in F4Fs. One common veteran Japanese pliot mistake was to zoom too close within range of an F4F. While this was a great maneuver for a Zeke as an aircraft (because it could climb well and lost energy slowly even in a steep climb where enemy a/c would stall out), it was a lousy maneuver in front of an enemy pilot who could deflection shoot very well and whose guns could rip up a Zeke to pieces with a very small number of hits.

< Message edited by mdiehl -- 12/20/2005 6:27:43 PM >


_____________________________

Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?

(in reply to Berkut)
Post #: 550
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 6:21:12 PM   
Big B

 

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From: Old Los Angeles pre-1960
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar

So you are saying that because USN pilots (in relatively few engagements) stood one to one with Japanese, it means that US Army, Dutch, British, Australian and NZ pilots would perform as well ?? All changes reflect to all nationalities, so USN records are just one part.




quote:

ORIGINAL: Berkut

mdiehl, do you ahve any stats that reflect something OTHER THAN the F4F against the Zero in what, two or three encounters during the time frame in question?

I mean, the Zero fought a lot more aircraft than the F4F - in fact I would suspect that the F4F represents a small subset of the opponenets of the Zero during the time that the bonus would be in effect.

Correct me if I am wrong, but you seem t be jumping between two extremes. One the one hand, you insist we ONLY look at encounters between the Zero and USN F4Fs, and then you turn around and want to look at *overall* Allies vs. Japanese results for the entire war. Niether of those cases are a good judge of the A6M Zero and its historical record in the first few months of the war.

One the one hand, you want to look at a very specific and statistically trivial encounter where hte Zero was fought to a draw, and ask us to conclude things about the Zero *in general*, and then on the other hand you ask to use statistics about all Japanese aircraft aagain all Allied aircraft over th entire war, and draw that same conclusion.

Wouldn't it make more sense to look at the performance of the A6M Zero against a variety of aircraft in the period of time specified, see how it performs in WitP (and I ahve yet to see evidence that the overall kill rates are as out of whack in WitP as claimed - I certainly have not achieved anything like 4:1 overall kill ratios in my games as the Japanese player in the first two months), and figure out if there is an issue.

From where I sit, it looks to me like you are the one doing the cherry picking.


Thank you for bringing that up gentlemen, I would love to know that too - which is why I have been saying we need to research and document that part of the air war before we can say anything is correct or off.
(as ar as A6M2s Vs Wildcats Mdiehl has been pretty thorough on that, and it's mor than a few CV battles he's talking about).

(in reply to Berkut)
Post #: 551
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 6:28:44 PM   
mogami


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Hi, Besides aircraft and pilots you also have to figure in the number of aircraft per side in a battle.
In WITP no matter what aircraft the Allies are flying if they have equal or greater numbers and the size of battle is not too large (say 20 Allied fighters versus 9 A6m2) The Allied player scores at least 1 to 1.
However when 100 A6m2 fight 20 Allied fighters of any flavor the Allies are lucky to get 1 or 2 kills total while losing most if not all their fighters.

Also WITP checks the group leader. The group leader is very important. If you assign a leader with aircombat below 40 to a A6m2 Daitai and then engage 1 on 1 27 fighters versus 27 fighters (with a leader over 60) The A6m2 does very poorly even in Dec 41.

As Japan I feel the only way to offset the better Allied aircraft is to use numbers, accept losses and transfer in new groups and out last the Allied fighters.

In the Dadman AAR you will notice the USN always does at least as well as IJN in aircombat during CV battles. It is only when they are faced by large numbers of landbased air that they suffer lower A2A ratios.



_____________________________






I'm not retreating, I'm attacking in a different direction!

(in reply to Big B)
Post #: 552
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 6:31:12 PM   
mdiehl

 

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I think the big (?) for me is the breakdown of engagements in SE Asia. I'd like to know against which types the Zeke was really successful and why, and what the actual kill ratios were. I'd look to Malaya, Burma, PI, and Indonesia, and I'd completely ignore data from cases of obvious tactical surprise (since this in WitP is generated by good player operational planning).

If it turns out that the A6M was only Hells Bells against F2A3s, Fokker DXXIs, or when it had numerical superiority of 10:1....

_____________________________

Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?

(in reply to Big B)
Post #: 553
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 6:36:04 PM   
mdiehl

 

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quote:

However when 100 A6m2 fight 20 Allied fighters of any flavor the Allies are lucky to get 1 or 2 kills total while losing most if not all their fighters.

Also WITP checks the group leader. The group leader is very important. If you assign a leader with aircombat below 40 to a A6m2 Daitai and then engage 1 on 1 27 fighters versus 27 fighters (with a leader over 60) The A6m2 does very poorly even in Dec 41.


Perhaps for increased accuray the "group leader" component should be eliminated from the game. There's no obvious link between this index and anything in the real world. How would anyone know whether or not the range of variation in group leader ability in the relative combatants was properly indexed to "Real Life?"

As to numerical superiority.... I think the model overrates supremacy to a degree. The F4F VMF pilots at Midway were vastly outnumbered but they shot down more Zeroes than they lost in F4Fs. (The F2A3s were another thing entirely). On the other hand they were vastly outnumbered at Wake and they lost.

_____________________________

Show me a fellow who rejects statistical analysis a priori and I'll show you a fellow who has no knowledge of statistics.

Didn't we have this conversation already?

(in reply to mdiehl)
Post #: 554
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 6:39:12 PM   
Big B

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mogami

Hi, Besides aircraft and pilots you also have to figure in the number of aircraft per side in a battle.
In WITP no matter what aircraft the Allies are flying if they have equal or greater numbers and the size of battle is not too large (say 20 Allied fighters versus 9 A6m2) The Allied player scores at least 1 to 1.
However when 100 A6m2 fight 20 Allied fighters of any flavor the Allies are lucky to get 1 or 2 kills total while losing most if not all their fighters.

Also WITP checks the group leader. The group leader is very important. If you assign a leader with aircombat below 40 to a A6m2 Daitai and then engage 1 on 1 27 fighters versus 27 fighters (with a leader over 60) The A6m2 does very poorly even in Dec 41.

As Japan I feel the only way to offset the better Allied aircraft is to use numbers, accept losses and transfer in new groups and out last the Allied fighters.

In the Dadman AAR you will notice the USN always does at least as well as IJN in aircombat during CV battles. It is only when they are faced by large numbers of landbased air that they suffer lower A2A ratios.




Well that is not what I saw when I ran all those tests, the best Allied fighters fighting A6M2s at 1 to 1 odds (usually 24 US to 18 JPN) occasionally inflicted more losses, sometimes it was a draw, but over every series of air battles the US ended on the deficit side of a 3 to 1 loss ratio.
Now all of those tests were arranged for everyone to have default exp ratings which was about 75-80 Japanese and 55 allied (generalizing), but they never sustained 1 to 1 losses over the long haul.

Secondly, why should the Zero win the large air battles?
EDIT: Misread what you said - not large air battles, large battles with the US planes being outnumbered 100:20 - gotcha! That's very different!

< Message edited by Big B -- 12/20/2005 6:46:13 PM >

(in reply to mogami)
Post #: 555
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 6:55:49 PM   
Sardaukar


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From:
www.chuckhawks.com

"The Type 00 did extremely well in China, downing 99 enemy planes with no losses of their own (although the aircraft they flew against were woefully obsolescent)."

"To reduce their losses the RAF decided to replace the outmatched Buffalo with the more formidable Hawker Hurricane, famed for its decisive role in the Battle of Britain. Unfortunately, its pilots also found that fighting a Zeke on its terms was practically hara-kiri. Finally, the British threw their best at the Japanese, the fabled Supermarine Spitfire. To the Allies dismay, this fighter also could not compare with the incredibly nimble Zero. In only two engagements, Zeros downed 17 of 27 while losing 2 of their own."

But then:

"The Australian pilots displayed an immense amount of courage against daunting odds. It was not uncommon for only one plane to challenge twenty or more Japanese. After 44 grueling days of combat the 75th destroyed 35 planes with another 15 probables and roughly 50 damaged. Their loss was 11 pilots and 16 P-40s lost to combat and 6 to accidents. Though theirs were not an outright victory, the brave souls of the 75th saved Port Moresby and held off the enemy until more squadrons could be formed."

So can we actually make any conclusions from combat records, since they seemed to wildly vary, depending on circumstances ?




(in reply to mdiehl)
Post #: 556
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 6:58:34 PM   
mogami


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Hi, In WITP A6M2 groups will have inexperianced pilots by early 1942 unless the Japanese player does not accept replacements.
Then rather then have inexperiance pilots flying in combat he uses other existing groups of trained pilots for replacements in combat groups.

The Allied player will not see this except for a decreasing number of Japanese groups over time.

If on the other hand the Japanese player accepts replacements into groups flying combat the Allied player will begin seeing A2A totals rise. (Every mission where Japanese encounter enemy fighters the inexperianced japanese pilots are shot down)

If the Allied player does not pressure a Japanese player using experianced groups then the Japanese will be able to train pilots up to at least 50 before commiting them to combat. If the Japanese player is forced to provide fighters for CAP and escort over a long period right from the start then Japanese pilot training breaksdown.

In order to really comment on WITP you need to track such matters as how the Japanese groups are being maintained.



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Post #: 557
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 7:04:50 PM   
Big B

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sardaukar

From:
www.chuckhawks.com

"The Type 00 did extremely well in China, downing 99 enemy planes with no losses of their own (although the aircraft they flew against were woefully obsolescent)."

"To reduce their losses the RAF decided to replace the outmatched Buffalo with the more formidable Hawker Hurricane, famed for its decisive role in the Battle of Britain. Unfortunately, its pilots also found that fighting a Zeke on its terms was practically hara-kiri. Finally, the British threw their best at the Japanese, the fabled Supermarine Spitfire. To the Allies dismay, this fighter also could not compare with the incredibly nimble Zero. In only two engagements, Zeros downed 17 of 27 while losing 2 of their own."

But then:

"The Australian pilots displayed an immense amount of courage against daunting odds. It was not uncommon for only one plane to challenge twenty or more Japanese. After 44 grueling days of combat the 75th destroyed 35 planes with another 15 probables and roughly 50 damaged. Their loss was 11 pilots and 16 P-40s lost to combat and 6 to accidents. Though theirs were not an outright victory, the brave souls of the 75th saved Port Moresby and held off the enemy until more squadrons could be formed."

So can we actually make any conclusions from combat records, since they seemed to wildly vary, depending on circumstances ?




Of course you can, what other possible way is there to know if your on the right track for goodness sakes?

What was not included in the above was one little detail - CONTEXT of the engagements.

(in reply to Sardaukar)
Post #: 558
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 7:09:52 PM   
Big B

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mogami

Hi, In WITP A6M2 groups will have inexperianced pilots by early 1942 unless the Japanese player does not accept replacements.
Then rather then have inexperiance pilots flying in combat he uses other existing groups of trained pilots for replacements in combat groups.

The Allied player will not see this except for a decreasing number of Japanese groups over time.

If on the other hand the Japanese player accepts replacements into groups flying combat the Allied player will begin seeing A2A totals rise. (Every mission where Japanese encounter enemy fighters the inexperianced japanese pilots are shot down)

If the Allied player does not pressure a Japanese player using experianced groups then the Japanese will be able to train pilots up to at least 50 before commiting them to combat. If the Japanese player is forced to provide fighters for CAP and escort over a long period right from the start then Japanese pilot training breaksdown.

In order to really comment on WITP you need to track such matters as how the Japanese groups are being maintained.




Yes, actually I did keep the Japanese (all) groups pretty well up to strength, never letting them get below 25-26 pilots and aircraft.
Yes the Daitai's with the most casualties did have signifigant drops in overall exp level - however 2 things:
1) this did not measureably raise the kill ratio
2) this did not lower the Japanese kill ratio

(in reply to mogami)
Post #: 559
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 7:22:00 PM   
mogami


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Hi, These are results from PBEM game Sept 1943. Notice Allied fighters are not doing that bad.
1700 Allied fighters lost in A2A compared to 3200 Japanese fighters lost in A2A

These are not test results but actual WITP human versus human results.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Mogami -- 12/20/2005 7:26:37 PM >


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Post #: 560
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 8:11:12 PM   
Big B

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Mogami

Hi, These are results from PBEM game Sept 1943. Notice Allied fighters are not doing that bad.
1700 Allied fighters lost in A2A compared to 3200 Japanese fighters lost in A2A

These are not test results but actual WITP human versus human results.





Obviously people have no problem in their campaigns vs people, I can only atest to what it produced for me.

The conclusion I came to was that the ZB didn't matter much - Pilot Exp was EVERYTHING - which no doubt explains why the game produced different loss rates for default pilot values vs what people can achieve playing a long campaign - PILOT EXPERIENCE.

The only other question I have not seen satisfactorily answered is "What really happened in the first few months of 1942?" vs "what the game produces with Allied vs Japanese exp ratings at that stage of the game".

That requires historical research....

< Message edited by Big B -- 12/20/2005 8:18:12 PM >

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Post #: 561
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 8:19:41 PM   
mogami


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Hi, I think you assigned the Allied groups too low experiance. The USN fighter groups are all over 60 at start with many pilots in 80's and 90's. Even the Dutch have time to train to the 55 level. There is only a very short very location specific period when the Japanese have a large edge in experiance and then only if the IJN groups are employed. Many Allied units have higher starting experiance compared to IJA groups.

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Post #: 562
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 8:28:27 PM   
jwilkerson


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Ditto - PBEM results from stock PBEM July 1943 ... significantly less bloody war on our part ...
Allied A2A fighter losses = about 1600
Japanese A2A fighter losses = about 1300






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Post #: 563
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 9:11:12 PM   
Big B

 

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When i ran this test however, it was June 1942 - no ZB.
IJN units exp was 75
USN F4F units exp was 75

air battles were with equal numbers, and the F4Fs fared particularly poorly for equal exp with the Zeros (both at 75)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Big B

So I ran the same test as before - the same 6 Daitai vs the same 6 American Sqdns, this time starting on June 1st 1942 - No Zero Bonus.
The only thing else different in this test was that the Japanese default pilot quality dropped from an average of 81 or 82 previously to an average start of 75 (range was 70 to 80).

Results without the zero bonus in effect: 78 Zeros destroyed a2a vs 189 F4F4s and P40Es.

Looks like a slight drop in kill ratios from a solid 3 to 1 previously to about 2.5 to 1 favoring the Zero.

So that appears to be the Zero Bonus - they destroy about the same number of good allied fighters either way, but take about 16% to 17% more losses without the Bonus.

From the way I look at it, 16% losses more or less taken by the Zeros is almost inconsequential compared to the fact that the game engine (as of the last official patch - 1.62# ?) kills good allied fighters at 2.5 to 3:1 rate overall, even in June 1942.

I don't know the exact loss rate for P40s and F4Fs due to fighter combat in 1942, that will be the next step to investigate.

Regardless - that kind of kill rate seems awfully high to me.





(in reply to mogami)
Post #: 564
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 9:13:10 PM   
mogami


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Hi, In another game Oct 42
1044 Allied fighters shot down in A2A versus 331 Japanese fighters.
Of these 582 are P-40/F4F and of course they account for the majority of Japanese fighters lost.

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Post #: 565
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 9:13:55 PM   
Berkut

 

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I am beginning to suspect that this is much ado about nothing.

What is the problem that needs fixing here?

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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 9:16:42 PM   
tabpub


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2 days from the end of '42 here.
Heaviest fighting was in the Burma area, as you can see by the accompanying table.
Though, pilot loss was not so bad, as most of the engagements were on our side of the fence; needed a lot of rotation of units though to keep up the fight effectively.
On the other fronts, the need to recover North Australia in mid '42 and the fact that the PNG/Solomons has been enemy held since early '42 have limited the friction points for the US/ANZAC forces, so there has been little opportunity for them to fight over the last 6 months. 1943 should be a wing-ding of a year, though.

As to the 'Zero Bonus'; it's a general non-factor. In this and the other 3x3 game I am in, no one is winning/losing due to it. In fact, I believe that it hurts the IJ somewhat...I know, heresy!....it's just that it seems to encourage them to overuse these planes, mainly to their detriment. Look at the ops losses and such; they are losing almost as many in that category as in a2a, mainly due to reckless (IMO) usage.
Now, as another example from the other game (3x3 F&L AAR) is a recent fight over PM.
IJAAF had been bombing PM mercilessly from Lae; they let up for 2 days due to weather and 2 squadrons of Kitty I's slipped in to contest the air again:

04/25/42
Day Air attack on Port Moresby , at 53,91
Japanese aircraft
A6M2-N Rufe x 14
A6M2 Zero x 19
A6M3 Zero x 8
Ki-21 Sally x 38
Ki-49 Helen x 15
Allied aircraft
Kittyhawk I x 21
Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2-N Rufe: 4 destroyed, 1 damaged
A6M2 Zero: 4 destroyed
Ki-21 Sally: 5 destroyed, 4 damaged
Ki-49 Helen: 2 destroyed
Allied aircraft losses
Kittyhawk I: 6 destroyed, 3 damaged
Allied ground losses:
21 casualties reported
Runway hits 6
Port hits 1
Port supply hits 1
Aircraft Attacking:
All Ki-21 Sally bombing at 10000 feet

ZB still in slight effect now, these were new squadrons with little fighting experience (in low-mid 60's), had just transferred into PM taking 12 fatigue up into the air with them and outnumbered 21 to 41.
They did lose the 6 indicated and post day confirmation was 4 Zeros, 4 Rufes, 2 Helens and 2 Sallies to a2a combat (flak got the other 3 Sallies). The Japanese player(s) would have to post what the experience/fatigue levels for their planes were. Fatigue on their part should be less, as they hadn't flown a mission for 2 days.

My experience from the game.
"Don't fear the Zero Bonus" <sung to the tune of BOC's "Don't fear the Reaper">.




Attachment (1)

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But, brother, we're TOO God damn low...

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Post #: 567
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 9:21:58 PM   
mogami


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Big B

When i ran this test however, it was June 1942 - no ZB.
IJN units exp was 75
USN F4F units exp was 75

air battles were with equal numbers, and the F4Fs fared particularly poorly for equal exp with the Zeros (both at 75)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Big B

So I ran the same test as before - the same 6 Daitai vs the same 6 American Sqdns, this time starting on June 1st 1942 - No Zero Bonus.
The only thing else different in this test was that the Japanese default pilot quality dropped from an average of 81 or 82 previously to an average start of 75 (range was 70 to 80).

Results without the zero bonus in effect: 78 Zeros destroyed a2a vs 189 F4F4s and P40Es.

Looks like a slight drop in kill ratios from a solid 3 to 1 previously to about 2.5 to 1 favoring the Zero.

So that appears to be the Zero Bonus - they destroy about the same number of good allied fighters either way, but take about 16% to 17% more losses without the Bonus.

From the way I look at it, 16% losses more or less taken by the Zeros is almost inconsequential compared to the fact that the game engine (as of the last official patch - 1.62# ?) kills good allied fighters at 2.5 to 3:1 rate overall, even in June 1942.

I don't know the exact loss rate for P40s and F4Fs due to fighter combat in 1942, that will be the next step to investigate.

Regardless - that kind of kill rate seems awfully high to me.







Hi, Why does Japan show almost twice as many sorties flown?

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RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 9:21:59 PM   
mdiehl

 

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quote:

What is the problem that needs fixing here?


Varied. At the least a broken A2A model that substantially favors A6Ms over F4Fs in the early part of the war. I am swayed by the observation that the ZB only accounts for about 15% of the error, so "fix something else" (instead or in addition) seems warranted.

quote:

I believe that it hurts the IJ somewhat...I know, heresy


Not "heresy," just illogical. It's an (antihistorical, unjustified) advantage regardless of whether or not the Japanese player squanders it somehow.



< Message edited by mdiehl -- 12/20/2005 9:25:04 PM >


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Post #: 569
RE: Proposal for CHS - Remove the Zero bonus. Any opini... - 12/20/2005 9:22:50 PM   
Big B

 

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The Zero bonus is in my opinion now "much ado about nothing"

What I do think is wrong is a general 3 to 1 loss rate in a2a combat early in the war "WHEN THE NUMBERS ARE EQUAL OR ADVANTAGEOUS TO THE ALLIES"

I do not believe that accurately reflects what happened under those circumstances.

I will repeat, I want to investigate what really happened.

I suspect that I will find that the Japanese early air victories had everything to do with superior numbers and surprise over airfields - not superior pilots per say when engaged on equal numeric terms.

If my assumption is accurate - then Japanese pilots start with too much exp. If my assumption is inaccurate and the Japanese enjoyed no such superior numbers, then everything is fine.

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