trees
Posts: 175
Joined: 5/28/2006 Status: offline
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really if you do the math I think Russia can just about always prevent Barbarossa in the summer of 1941. some would dispute this (and this has come up in a few other threads) but I just think they aren't quite brave enough to do it. Russia can build a garrison-ratio-efficient-force easier than Germany can; if they put pilots in every old plane they can the numbers grow even faster. For Germany to maximize they have to completely forget the Kriegsmarine, not send anything to the Med, garrison defeated France weakly, and hope to not take many casualties there. That's a lot of things to ignore to load up the kitchen sink Barbarossa, and the CW will be grinning. [though the Balkan Axis allies do help the Axis math, Tito will have an affect on it too]. Russia only has to be willing to perhaps cede Siberia to Japan (and only needs to withdraw in the fall of 1940), and forgo Persia, which has some nice benefits in the US entry reaching levels 19 and 30 sooner. May/Jun is just about for sure, barring weird chit draws (and ADG just released new counters raising the average chit values so this is even easier). Jul/Aug is also somewhat certain. Sep/Oct and Nov/Dec are perhaps past the tipping point, but the danger is somewhat past as the chances of clear weather decrease rapidly, and the CW is perhaps knocking on the doors of Tripoli while the Wehrmacht, the most potent military force on the map in 1941, spins it's wheels on manuevers in Poland. When Germany goes with 'No Bessarabia', large parts of the Ukraine are now within three hexes of Axis territory and it is far simpler to 'stuff' the border, requiring fewer land moves a shorter distance from Mother Russia; actually the border zone is inside Mother Russia. If Uncle Joe gets nervous during a sunny September 1941 and wants to fold, his five best T-34 corps can easily escape to the hinterlands outside of Stuka range. Perhaps the infantry mass in the front ranks get to experience what the CGI Orcs did in front of Minas Tirith as the Rohirrim scream "Death", but it's not as terrible as the Red Army stuck in eastern Poland getting to experience what the bluecoats did in "The Crater" outside of Petersburg, as seen in 'Cold Mountain'. And even if Stalin packs it in and the Stukas are unleashed in August or September, they don't have as much time to flip counters over as the rain clouds approach, and Russian rear-area HQs hiding behind Dnepropetrovsk perhaps have a better chance to reorganize some so more can escape than can from advanced positions in Poland, as again if May/Jun has been lost to the Germans, and perhaps at least an impulse or two of Jul/Aug as reinforcements walk/rebase into the border zone, they can do less damage to the Red Army mass in the Ukraine and the good parts can escape from the third line. I'm not sure I always want to stuff the border in 1941, there are some advantages to the Allies in drawing the Germans in to this strategy if the Russian player is confident they can survive, but when Germany activates Rumania on impulse 2 it gets so much easier that I would have STAVKA weigh the new options more carefully.
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