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RE: Superforts hit Singapore - 1/16/2009 7:19:55 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Paullus, we think along the same lines.  I sent this email to my opponent early this morning:

"John, the Japs remain potent, can strike anywhere, and can bring a great deal of power to bear at any one point, or more than one for that matter.

"The late date in the game and the order of battle have put you in the position of Stonewall Jackson, moving fast, remaining mobile, striking and getting away.  The OOB has put me in the position of Ulysses S. Grant - I have such a tremendous amount of aircraft, ships, and men that I can just sort of blunder along relying on pure power to make of for mistakes.

"By any objective measure you've outplayed me in this game.  I'm not being falsely modest.  In fact, I'm pleased that I overcame the lack of experience to survive in the game.  I'm also pleased with some of the moves I've made.  But the Japs really had the Allies on the ropes.  Dan"

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 871
It Happened! - 1/16/2009 9:03:46 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Points Highlights
 
06/12/42:  (J) 21,777 to (A) 5,733 - I'm sweating a 4:1 Jap auto-victory as I look toward 1943.
12/28/42:  (J) 37,059 to (A) 10,988 - Auto-victory avoided, but this is the Jap highwater mark.
10/12/43:  (J) 41,893 to (A) 22,691 - the spread begins to narrow following Allied capture of Iwo Jima.
12/14/43:  (J) 47,097 to (A) 31,083 - immediately following the Allied seizure of Sikhalin Island.
04/01/44:  (J) 52,158 to (A) 43,493 - just before B-29s arrive and Strategic Bombing begins in earnest
06/30/44:  (A) 54,229 to (J) 54,226 - At long last the Allies take the lead!

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/16/2009 9:04:45 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 872
RE: It Happened! - 1/16/2009 9:34:25 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		In the book, "Shattered Sword - the Untold Story of the Battle of Midway" by Parshall & Tully, they make a great point about Japanese strategic objectives:

There are two types of objectives related to the Kido Butai - those that require the deployment of every available carrier & those objectives to be ignored. If its not worth sending everything they have, they shouldn't have sent any at all.

Of course, historically, the Japanese only started losing carriers when they split them up - Coral Sea & Midway, in particular.

In this game, I believe John will go down fighting, but he's going to make you pay in plenty of blood before that happens. He'll dance & dance & dance until you get him into a corner - perhaps think about creating more "carrier-free" zones - putting enough planes & recon into various outposts to keep you apprised should the KB start making moves anywhere near you - think Recon, Recon, Recon.

How are your subs doing?

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 873
RE: It Happened! - 1/16/2009 10:18:43 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The sub game has been very active although I haven't mentioned much about it.  The Allies are regularly hitting transports, devote a few subs to mine-laying, and establish lines as "early warning detectors" of approaching Jap TFs. Here's a summary of the major sub divisions in the game:

1)  Sabang:  Subs from this port handle the southern South China Sea, the Java Sea, and the Timor Sea region.  For months John has scoured this area with patrol craft that have damaged  a slew of Allied subs making this a dangerous region in which to operate.

2)  Iwo Jima:  Subs from this base handle the northern South China Sea, Philippine Sea, and the area between Iwo and Saipan.  ASW forces and aircraft have made it tough in this area too.  Most Allied minelaying subs operate from this base, targeting Saipan, Palau, Davao, and a few other ports.

3)  Shikuka:  This base supports subs used to form a line around northern Japan to warn of raids by the KB or the approach of amphibious TFs.

4)  Midway:  Subs from this port handle the area around Midway and south to around Truk.

5)  Eniwetok:  Subs from this port handle the area between Eniwetok and the Solomons, plus the Kwajalein area.

7)  Auckland/Sydney:  These bases support sub operations around Fiji, New Caledonia, the Coral Sea, and the Solomons.

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 874
RE: It Happened! - 1/18/2009 3:31:27 AM   
racndoc


Posts: 2519
Joined: 10/29/2004
From: Newport Coast, California
Status: offline 		Canoerebel....


Ive been following your AAR for some time(and so has my opponent) and even though I havent posted I see many similarities between our games although Im about 6 months behind you....based on your facing some 700 Japanese fighters on CAP we introduced a house rule to limit CV stacking of fighters to a max of 350 in a hex. I faced the same dilemma as you regarding Allied carriers....I have my CVs covering invasions off New Guinea and then KB goes raiding on my convoy routes in the eastern Pacific....if the Allies are truly dedicated to maintaining an offensive posture there is no way they can stop KB raids against backwater convoys. Dont worry about committing CVEs to protect your convoy routes...the more forces you commit to protect your convoys the more you will lose unless you commit something like 15-20 CVEs. I had 2 CVEs and 2 BBs covering my convoys 1000 miles off the California coast and all it did was provide more targets for KB to hit.

I agree with you...you have your B-29 bases in the north Pacifc to hit Japan and you dont need the Marianas....now go ahead and destroy Japan from the air. I am focusing on the Marianas in my game for the B-29s...will take 5-6 months and unbelieveable ship losses from minefield, CD guns etc.....

You are right about the strategic bombing...you have the game and the war basically won....whatever you do DO NOT split up your CVs/CVLs/CVEs into smaller groups and allow Japan to defeat your carrier forces in detail.

Good luck!

< Message edited by AdmSpruance -- 1/18/2009 3:45:35 AM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 875
Game Balance - 1/18/2009 10:38:16 PM   
desicat

 

Posts: 542
Joined: 5/25/2008
Status: offline 		Don't sell yourself short, some of the things you have done in this game have been remarkable.  Yes, John got your carriers early in the game and again when they didn't fly cap during the Wotje invasion and he even ALMOST got Australia - but look what you have accomplished!

Destroyed the KB Sea Eagles off Vancouver, took advantage of excess Japanese troops in AU to press IndoChina and Vietnam, stopped him short in AU, successful Iwo invasion, Hokkaido and Sakhalin invasions, mini KB destruction by the RN in the Indian Ocean, and the elimination of most of the Japanese BB's and CA's/CL's.

You have played a great game against an experienced and aggressive opponent, you deserve every point you have scored and definitely should be in the lead at this point.  Take away any of the above listed success and you would not even be close in my humble opinion. 

Thanks for providing the excellent AAR for all of us to enjoy.  

(in reply to racndoc)
Post #: 876
Japanese Retreat in Malaya? - 1/19/2009 2:29:18 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/30/44 to 7/4/44
 
Malaya:  The Japanese have evactuated Khota Bharu (on the east coast) and are about to get booted out of Taiping (on the west coast).  A deliberate attack (the Allies' first) there on the 3rd came in at 4:1 and dropped forts to six.  More troops have arrived and the Allies will shock attack tomorrow.  If the Allies then move around through Khota Bharu the road leads behind Kuala Lumpur, so I think the Japs will have to abandon that base too.  That will leave John with Malacca, Mersing, Johore Bharu, Kuantan, and Singapore, but I'm not sure yet if he'll fight or not.  He has the troops to do so, but the big Allied airfield at Georgetown plus fighter bases on Sumatra have given the Allies control of the skies. John will be worried both about supplying his army and evacuating them if things become hopeless.

CenPac:  The Allies set up a big raid on Tokyo's airfield and resources for the 4th, but the only bombers that flew were B-24s from Iwo that targeted the airfields.  The B-29s from Shikuka failed to sortie (targets included resources and aircraft factories).  Though much smaller than intended, the raid was a sucess with the Japanese losing 22 aircraft on the ground and something like 55 in the air.  The Allies lost about 12 fighters.  I'm going to try again tomorrow, with Iwo's B-24s, Shikuka's B-29s, and Toyohara's B-24s and B-17s set to hit the airfield and several aircraft factories.  A carrier group will also move within range and I've set all torpedo bombers and most of the dive bombers to sortie.  There is an element of danger here because my carriers will be close to alot of big bases.

Wake/Eniwetok/Ponape:  Lonely Allied troops on these islands wonder whether the Japanese armada that was moving on Iwo has now turned its eyes this way; or has John sent the KB sprinting to SWPac to deal with the U.S. carriers near Noumea?  I'm guessing the latter.

NoPac:  The last Japanese resistance at Amchitka Island caved in on the 3rd.  The Japanese have two small and isolated bases left - Cold Bay and Dutch Harbor.  The MLE and ML will arrive at Toyohara in two or three days.  Everything else up here looks good at the moment.  The bases are well supplied and the convoy route is now pretty secure since the Allies have a chain of big air bases in the Aleutians and at Paramushiro and Onnekotan.  Mines and a secure supply route may well permit the Allies to keep the NoPac carriers on duty in CenPac.

SWPac:  Americal Division has arrived at Noumea and will bombard tomorrow to gauge strength (the garrison seems to be 2 units 6,000 strong, one of those units being an airbase).  More troops will arrive tomorrow and I expect to shock attack in two days.  (I don't think I've mentioned Americal in years of game time - it garrisoned Aukland which became a backwater for most of the game).

Points:  The lead seesawed a bit as the Japs reclaimed the lead by two points on the 1st, but now the Allies are up by 200 to 300 points.  I've also just discovered that the Allies need 1.8x points just to earn a draw!  This is new information to me as I didn't even pay attention to victory conditions.   So the Allies still have alot of work to do.

 


< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/19/2009 2:33:26 PM >

(in reply to desicat)
Post #: 877
Allies (Finally) Reclaim Noumea - 1/19/2009 11:48:52 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/5/44 and 7/6/44
 
SWPac:   A weakly defended Noumea fell to a mixed Fiji and American force on July 6, 1944.  It seems odd that the Allies are in a good position in a game in which the Japanese held Noumea into the second half of '44 (not to mention part of Australia well into '44).  Weird game.

Malaya:  The Japs began to withdraw from Taiping and a shock attack on the 5th evicts the stragglers.  The main Allied force is advancing down the west road, next stop Kuala Lumpur.  A smaller force will take Khota Bahru tomorrow and then will move south threatening to cut off the Japs at Kuala Lumpur.  Allied bombers are hitting Singapore.  I don't know where the Japs stop - John may even begin a wholesale effort to evacuate his men through Singapore. 

Japan:  A big raid of 4EB from Iwo, Toyohara and Shikuka hit Tokyo on the 5th, damaging the Frank, Jack, and Frances factories and the airfield. The Japanese lose 41 aircraft on the ground.  The Allied bombers rested on the 6th but are scheduled to return tomorrow.

Points:  Noumea is a big base for the Allies (1800 points).  The Allies now lead 56,953 to 54,484. 


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 878
RE: Allies (Finally) Reclaim Noumea - 1/20/2009 2:05:06 AM   
vettim89


Posts: 3615
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Toledo, Ohio
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

7/5/44 and 7/6/44
 
SWPac:   A weakly defended Noumea fell to a mixed Fiji and American force on July 6, 1944.  It seems odd that the Allies are in a good position in a game in which the Japanese held Noumea into the second half of '44 (not to mention part of Australia well into '44).  Weird game.

Malaya:  The Japs began to withdraw from Taiping and a shock attack on the 5th evicts the stragglers.  The main Allied force is advancing down the west road, next stop Kuala Lumpur.  A smaller force will take Khota Bahru tomorrow and then will move south threatening to cut off the Japs at Kuala Lumpur.  Allied bombers are hitting Singapore.  I don't know where the Japs stop - John may even begin a wholesale effort to evacuate his men through Singapore. 

Japan:  A big raid of 4EB from Iwo, Toyohara and Shikuka hit Tokyo on the 5th, damaging the Frank, Jack, and Frances factories and the airfield. The Japanese lose 41 aircraft on the ground.  The Allied bombers rested on the 6th but are scheduled to return tomorrow.

Points:  Noumea is a big base for the Allies (1800 points).  The Allies now lead 56,953 to 54,484. 




Keep hitting those Frank and Jack factories, Baby. Do not let him amass a substantial pool of the next generation of fighters. Forget the bomber factories - bombers are usless if there aren't any fighters to escort them

_____________________________

"We have met the enemy and they are ours" - Commodore O.H. Perry

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 879
RE: Allies (Finally) Reclaim Noumea - 1/20/2009 5:38:16 PM   
EWGuttag


Posts: 81
Joined: 1/20/2009
Status: offline 		Canoerebel,

I've been following your action, and you definitely appear to come back from the brink based on the comments of others.  That says quite a bit.  Continue to press forward, good luck, and good hunting.

(in reply to vettim89)
Post #: 880
RE: Allies (Finally) Reclaim Noumea - 1/20/2009 8:46:51 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/7/44 to 7/9/44
 
Malaya:  Mass confusion on the south end of the Malay peninsula as the Japanese appear to be retreating and staging at least a partial evacuation through Singapore.  An empty Kota Bahru fell to the Allies on the 8th and units are moving south.  On the other side, an Allied army has arrived at Kuala Lumpur.  British bombers from Sumatra are hitting abundant shipping in and around Singapore.  I don't know yet whether John intends to make a stand and fight for Singapore, or whether his intention is to hold it long enough to pull a Dunkirk.  He's lost alot of ships - so many that its completely made up for the 50 or 60 ships the Allies lost to the KB raid near Wake Island a few weeks back.  On the 9th, B-29s from Georgetown hit Palembang's oil scoring 32 hits.  To me this seems like a critical battle - if the Allies take Singapore that opens up the South China and Java seas to RN carriers and gives the Allies an airfield that can easily hit Batavia, Kuching, and Brunei.

China:  Jap bombers are hitting Sian's resources.  The Allies are winning the dogfights, but haven't had enough aircraft to stop the raids or to make them to costly.  So I've transferred in some squadrons from Burma and Andaman Islands.  Tomorrow, B-29s and B-24s at set to hit the "offending" Japanese airfield.

Japan:  Allied 4EBs hit Aomori, Tokyo, and Sapporo on the 7th.  They'v been resting since and I bet John's expecting a raid tomorrow.  But I'm going to give my pilots one more day off as I hope to throw John a curve.  A huge armada of carriers, combat ships, minelayers, and transports leaves Iwo tomorrow and moves toward Tori Shima.  I think John will expect another raid on Tokyo.  In fact, these ships are covering reinforcements, supplies, and mines destined for Tori.  I hope that this will lead John to bolster CAP over Tokyo, which he has recently left largley unguarded of late.  But day after tomorrow I'm planning on a large strike at Gumma.

SWPac:  The Allies are moving overland toward Koumac.  Beauforts at Noumea sank an AP at Koumac.  No sign of the KB, but I'm still thinking John will send carriers this way.


(in reply to EWGuttag)
Post #: 881
RE: Allies (Finally) Reclaim Noumea - 1/20/2009 8:52:40 PM   
Q-Ball


Posts: 7336
Joined: 6/25/2002
From: Chicago, Illinois
Status: offline 		Great read! You guys are playing the same version of BigB, and catching up to me; I am at 8.15.44 in my game with Hemajor. I didn't get as far as John, though my opponent can't bomb Japan yet except from China.

Playing late-war Japan is definitely a challenge; the losses are just staggering.

_____________________________


(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 882
RE: Allies (Finally) Reclaim Noumea - 1/20/2009 8:55:16 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Hey, Q-Ball!  What's your lead in your game (assuming you still lead)?  John really hasn't suffered staggering losses in our game (except in battleships), but strategic bombing is giving the Allies alot of points - what I don't know is whether it's hurting the Japanese economy or war machine.

(in reply to Q-Ball)
Post #: 883
RE: Allies (Finally) Reclaim Noumea - 1/21/2009 8:25:48 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/10/44 and 7/11/44
 
Malaya:  The mayhem and confusion on the southern end of the peninsula continues.  On the west side, the Japanese remain in force at Kuala Lumpur, Malacca, and Johore Bharu.  A 1:1 Allied deliberate attack at Kuala Lumpur dropped forts to five but failed to disloldge the defenders.  On the east side, a small Allied army about 700 AV strong is advancing south from Kota Bharu on a road that will take them behind the Japanese positions at Malacca and Kuala Lumpur.  That means the Japanese will either have to withdraw from these two cities toward Singapore or send a force north out of Johore Bharu to deal with the Allied units advancing from Kota Bharu.  If John does neither he risks seeing 100,000 Japanese cut off from Singapore.  The Allies have so many airfields and aircraft in the area that it has become a death zone for Japanese shipping.  John will thus have a hard time evacuating his army from Singapore without high losses.  He's either got to stay and fight or bring strong new forces to bear.  Could the KB be headed this way? (Note:  John has evacuated Victoria Point and a little Allied base force should seize it tomorrow.  Ironic, because for many, many months the Allies had 3,500 AV 100% prepped for this base and it was garrisoned by 50,000 Japanese.  As things turned out, I never had to move there in force - all those prepped troops ended up in Sumatra or at Georgetown instead.  Flanking gave the Allies this base at viritually no direct cost).

China:  The Japanese airforce continues to target resources and airfields at Sian, Yenen, and Lanchow.  The Allies brought in reinforcements and the air battle will continue to escalate if the Japanese keep raiding.  But a-2-a losses have been one-sided against the Japs, a state-of-affairs that John detests.

Japan:  The Allies planned a big raid on Tokyo's airfield, resources, and Jack factory for the 11th, but none of the Shikuka bombers sortied.  Only the Iwo Jima aircraft came in - the P-38s handled the rather small Japanese CAP, and about 30 B-24s scored some hits (according to recon Tokyo's airfield is about 50% functional right now).  The Iwo aircraft are ordered to return tomorrow in hopes that the much bigger northern contingent of 4EB will strike too.

Iwo Jima:  The combined Allied carrier fleet has taken station 60 miles NE of Tori Shima as transports unload supplies and a CD unit there.  Tori has a level one airfield 63% to level two, so I can currently post about 48 fighters at the base.  That should be enough to deter John from making raids unless he's up to something big (so Tori may act as sort of a listening post).  It will also allow fighter sweeps into Japan's heartland, which will really tick off John.  Chichi Jima's airfield is 78% to level one.

NoPac:  The Allies have begun routine convoys from the West Coast to the Aluetians bases, and from there to Paramushiro, Onnekotan, and Shikuka.  The latter port has 18,000 mines.  Toyohara already has 2,000.  Mines plus the number of big air bases, fortifications, battleships, and strong garrisons make this area (Sikhalin Island) secure.  Or secure enough to give me peace of mind to keep my NoPac carriers in CenPac for now.

American Carriers:  At the moment the majority are on station around Iwo.  I think the operation to re-supply and reinforce Iwo, Tori, and Chichi is nearly finished.  I haven't decided where the carriers go from here, but the most likely duty will be to attend to Wake Island. 

CenPac and SWPac:  I have reinforcements including three Army divisions and a Marine division prepping for Wake, but I'm not 100% sure yet that I'll bring them in.  I 'm leaning that way, but I'm also mulling over the evacuation of the troops currently on Wake so that I can then head south in a move that would allow the CenPac forces to link up with the SWPac forces now at Noumea, most likely in a move that would mean the invasion of several bases in the Solomons.

Points:  (A) 57,445 to (J) 54,544.  Strategic Points:  7,448.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 884
RE: Allies (Finally) Reclaim Noumea - 1/22/2009 9:40:14 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		I was having a quick flick through another book on the ACW.

Cant help but feel that this is similar to Grant v Lee.

You are grinding down the japanese empire, attrition is one of your major weapons.

You will fight a Wilderness, a Cold Harbour, A Red River campaign.

John will have his Forrest & Moseby, they might sting but change little, he may try to regain the ascendancy but you should have the resources and high quality troops/aircraft to defeat him.

You will win, it wont happen overnight but it will happen.

As Grant did in front of Richmond, pick a target that he MUST fight for and go at it singlemindedly (Not that I have any idea where this is, it could be your Bombing campaign, or an attack somewhere else?)

Keep going!!!


_____________________________

Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 885
RE: Allies (Finally) Reclaim Noumea - 1/22/2009 10:27:36 AM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		From the looks of things, the Japanese attack at Iwo (or attempted attack, since nothing big developed there) was in response to the bombing campaign. Given the lack of opposition of north, it looks like he's conceded northern Japan & only defending what he has to in Southern & Mid Japan.

It is a smart move on his part - only fight where he has to, maintain at least parity in those areas & bleed the Americans when the come calling. The house is burning down, but he's saving the kitchen sink for the last. He's got a pretty intact fleet, some good concentrations of fighters (and bombers), though I don't know where the bulk of his troops are stationed (though it looks like he'll take it on the chin in Malaysia).

How's Wake doing? If you can take it soon, it will open up some additional opportunities for you.

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 886
RE: Allies (Finally) Reclaim Noumea - 1/22/2009 9:09:29 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/12/44 to 7/14/44
 
Malaya on the Ground:  The Japanese lines are collapsing as John deals with the possibility of a large part of his army being cut off from the road to Singapore by advancing Allied troops.  To the west, his troops pulled out of Kuala Lumpur, which fell to a large Allied army on the 14th.  This army can now advance down the inland road toward Johore Bahru, threatening to cut off the Japanese army at Malacca, which is also under siege by another Allied army.  Meanwhile, a third (but much smaller) Allied army continues to advance south from Khota Bahru.  I don't know if John will make a stand at Johore Bahru or continue into Singapore.  The route is so sudden and complete, and John is so relaxed about it, that I think one of two situations has occurred:  (1) He had given up on Southern Malaya, prefering to concentrate on his inner perimeter defenses like Borneo and Java; or (2) He want to draw the Allies forward to strike behind.  I'd be much more worried about the latter if the Allies didn't have so much air power in the region.

Malaya in the Air:  The Allies have suddenly taken so many new bases that I'm having trouble getting base forces forward.  The main bases remain those on the north coast of Sumatra (home to many fighters and a few Wellington bomber groups) and Georgetown (home to two B-29 groups, about 70 Liberator IIIs, and 64 B-25s).  Two small Wellington groups are operating out of Kota Bharu.  The Jap airforce has pulled out - the closest concentration being Palembang - allowing Allied bombers to hit with relative impunity.  Bombers are being employed against ground troops and the abundant shipping fleeing Singapore.

Malaya at Sea:  An RN CL/DD force spent two days hammering shipping at Singapore, damaging 20 or more transports.  Of those, perhaps 12 went down.  Many of the damaged ships were then hit by Allied bombers.  The Allies did suffer one loss - CL Newfoundland succumbed to two mine hits followed by two torpedoes.

SWPac:  I am now revealing something I've omitted from my AAR.  Three weeks ago the RN carriers left Trincomalee for SWPac, stopping first at Perth to refuel and then rendezvouing with the CVs Bennington and Ticonderoga TF near Auckland.  I had hoped that John might send the KB this way and that I might ambush some Japanese carriers, but he hasn't (yet).  Yesterday a Dinah reported CV Victorious, so John should know what's up now (if he hadn't already suspicioned or guessed).  I'm not yet sure what the long-term use of the combined carrier fleet shall be.

Wake Island: The large Allied army at Wake continues to recover from disruption.  The AV exceeds 1,000 after falling to 350 immediately following the invasion.  In about two weeks I'll make the final decsion whether to reinforce or to pull out.

Japan:  The combined Allied 4EB forces from Iwo, Toyohara, and Shikuka are schedule to hit Gumma's airfield and aircraft factories tomorrow, preceded by P-38 and P-47 sweeps from Iwo and Tori Shima.  The 4EB at Shikuka that don't have the range to strike Gumma will instead target Sendai's resources.  The Jack factories are Tokyo and Hakodate are mostly out of commission now.  At Gumma I'm focusing on Jacks, Georges, Franks, and Frances.

Japanese defenses/Allied Plans:  John has loaded up the Java, Borneo, Celebes, Flores, and Timor bases with ground troops, and I suspect the same holds true for the Philippines.  The Allies have no intention of invading any bases in this area any time soon if ever.  For the foreseeable future, the Allies will concentrate on bombing the Home Islands, the campaign for Singapore, and the SWPac, SoPac, CenPac area. 

Carriers:  I have absolutely no idea where the KB is at the moment.  She was last known to be somewhere around Palau weeks ago, so she's had time to get almost anywhere.  American carriers remain focused around Iwo, with a small contingent in Hawaii and Midway.  There's the combined carrier fleet near Noumea, and more CVEs and a CV just arrived at Panama City.

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 887
RE: Allies (Finally) Reclaim Noumea - 1/22/2009 9:23:38 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		It does look like he's given up in Malaysia - at this point, reinforcing would just be sending in good after bad & open his shipping to more pounding once you've moved more airpower within range.

Given his previous tactics, I'd recommend keeping an eye out. He's always looking to "hit you where you ain't" so try looking at the front lines from his perspective. What's vulnerable? What would hurt?

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 888
RE: Allies (Finally) Reclaim Noumea - 1/22/2009 9:43:59 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		With the RN carriers out of the theater at present, John could bring to bear a massive invasion force that could overwhelm any particular location or area.   Sumatra would be an obvious target, but the loss of Sumatra wouldn't be a big blow to the Allies.  He could land behind my lines in Malaya, but I have so many men and bases there that I could turn to face him without too much trouble.  I admit that India is undergarrisoned and a bold, massive Japanese invasion would cause problems.  I've recently sent ground troops to Colombo, Karachi, and Bombay so that they have a little protection, and more troops are situated at Diamond Harbor and Rangoon.  I have reinforcements on the way in about a month that I intend to position in India until I'm absolutely certain that John isn't coming this way.  If I find the KB again (or if it finds me) I'll know more, because John will need the KB for such an undertaking.  I'd rate a re-invasion of Australia as unlikely since the Allies have alot of ground units, air power, and some carriers in the area.  A major operation in CenPac is unlikely since that's where the American carriers are currently stationed.  NoPac is unlikely due to the number of big Allied air bases and stout garrisons.

In other words, the only major invasion that would really trouble me is India.  John could do it if he really threw caution to the wind.

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 889
RE: Allies (Finally) Reclaim Noumea - 1/23/2009 1:27:08 AM   
Heeward


Posts: 343
Joined: 1/27/2003
From: Lacey Washington
Status: offline 		Wake - Do you control the air over this base?

_____________________________

The Wake

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 890
RE: Allies (Finally) Reclaim Noumea - 1/23/2009 2:46:21 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I don't have any air at Wake except when my carriers are present.

One other important factor about CBI - the Allies have tons of 4EB and good fighters in Alaska ready to make the hop to China and then to CBI; and the same with 4EB (B-24s and B-29s) in Hawaii and on the West Caost.   The British and their Allies have vast stores of supplies, big air bases, and alot of base forces in this region.  The fighters will add more defense to the Chinese bases and the big bombers will be used both offensively and defensively in Sumatra/Malaya and vicinity. 

(in reply to Heeward)
Post #: 891
RE: Allies (Finally) Reclaim Noumea - 1/23/2009 4:06:18 AM   
vettim89


Posts: 3615
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Toledo, Ohio
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I don't have any air at Wake except when my carriers are present.

One other important factor about CBI - the Allies have tons of 4EB and good fighters in Alaska ready to make the hop to China and then to CBI; and the same with 4EB (B-24s and B-29s) in Hawaii and on the West Caost.   The British and their Allies have vast stores of supplies, big air bases, and alot of base forces in this region.  The fighters will add more defense to the Chinese bases and the big bombers will be used both offensively and defensively in Sumatra/Malaya and vicinity. 


Have you thought about using your CV's to reduce the AB at Wake and then sending in the B-29's on an air based "nuke" as they transit west?

_____________________________

"We have met the enemy and they are ours" - Commodore O.H. Perry

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 892
RE: Allies (Finally) Reclaim Noumea - 1/23/2009 11:01:54 AM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		Again, I doubt India is on the target list - the amount of transport & troops necessary would strip just about everything else at this point. If you spot the KB anywhere near there, you would have sufficient time to move additional airpower in place to blow him out of the sea. You might want to take a look at actions that could close down that corridor anyway - moving into the East Indies, in force, should certainly provoke a reaction.

If your focus has moved to the Pacific, finish off Wake - don't give him an opportunity to counterpunch here, or better yet hit him somewhere else once Iwo is reinforced. Your carriers represent a formidible striking force - don't be shy about using it - you might even draw out the KB for a standup fight - which, even if you lose a carrier or two, should inflict crippling damage on what he has left.

Good luck & keep up the good fight.

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to vettim89)
Post #: 893
RE: Allies (Finally) Reclaim Noumea - 1/23/2009 11:27:24 AM   
tocaff


Posts: 4781
Joined: 10/12/2006
From: USA now in Brasil
Status: offline 		The key to victory is always play to your advantages and your opponent's weaknesses.

Clobber Wake, take and keep it.  You've already committed there so use your power and then cast your eyes elsewhere.  Every base for your LBA closes more sea lanes to the IJN.


_____________________________

Todd

I never thought that doing an AAR would be so time consuming and difficult.
www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2080768

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 894
Looking Forward - 1/23/2009 3:28:53 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/15/44
 
Japan:  Major Allied 4EB raids concentrate on Sendai's resources (23 hits) and Gumma's airfield and aircraft factories.  The Japanese fighters performed better than usual, but the P-38s escorts from Iwo did their job so that the following waves of 4EB from Toyohara and Shikuka scored big.  Over the past six weeks, the Allies have hit Gumma six or seven times with the following damage to the main targeted factories:  Frank 50 (37), George 2 (47), Jack 61 (104), and Frances 8 (59).

Air Results for the Day:  As a result of the air battles (mainly over Gumma and Sendai) and an Allied strike on the Japanese airfield at Ichang, China, the Japs lost 207 aircraft (72 a-2-a, 120 field, 4 flak, 11 ops) to 64 for the Allies (52, 0, 4, 8).

Iwo Jima:  The combined American carrier TFs remain on station between Iwo and Tori Shima protecting transports.  This operation will be fininished shortly and the carriers will return to Midway, possibly making a side trip to Pagan or Marcus to fly some strikes.

Noumea:  Still no sign of a Japanese response to the New Caledonia invaison, which surprises me.

Malaya:  Allied bombers from Malaya and Sumatra continue to hammer Japanese transports in the Singapore area.  John hasn't pulled his Malacca garrsion out yet (6 units some 60,000 strong) and that too is a surprise because the Allies could cut them off from Singapore in three days.  John hates getting cut off, always plans ahead to extract troops and other assets, and never panics.  This Singapore/Southern Malaya situation is entirely out of character for him, which therefore worries me.

Points:  (A) 58,701 to (J) 54,669.  The Allies have a 1.07 to 1 ratio.  Strategic points:  8098.

Looking Forward:  For the foreseeable future, the Allies will concentrate on:  (1) Strategic bombing of Japan; (2) Conquest of Singapore; (3) Closing off the South China Sea to Japanese shipping; (4) Finishing up the capture of Wake Island; (5) Retaking important bases in SoPac and SWPac; (6) eventually obtaining bases that will allow Allied 4EB and carrier sweeps to close off the important sea routes around Celebes by which John ships resources from the DEI to Japan.  These objectives are within reach, which I hope will leave most of 1945 for the Allies to mount a few enormous invasions of some vital Japanese bases. 


(in reply to tocaff)
Post #: 895
RE: Looking Forward - 1/23/2009 3:47:37 PM   
vettim89


Posts: 3615
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Toledo, Ohio
Status: offline 		Thanks for the update, Dan

You know it occured to me, some people get up everymorning and read the newspaper. I get up every morning and read, Forlorn Hopes, Forlorn Hopes - the Japanese Respond, From Here to What Seems Like Eternity, and Small Ship, Big War.

I think I may have a problem. Hello, my name is Tim, I am a WItP addict. It has been two hours since I last played WItP - oh, wait! I've got mail and it has a turn file attached! (Vettim89 withdraws to computer with wild look in his eyes)

_____________________________

"We have met the enemy and they are ours" - Commodore O.H. Perry

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 896
RE: Looking Forward - 1/23/2009 5:43:45 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		I find that I lose interest in AARs that are mainly Combat Reports with minimal narrative. I've been an "addict" for so long that I need a more powerful drug daily. Keep up the narrative and kick John's butt!!

(in reply to vettim89)
Post #: 897
RE: Looking Forward - 1/24/2009 12:48:11 AM   
Heeward


Posts: 343
Joined: 1/27/2003
From: Lacey Washington
Status: offline 		I have to agree with tocaff - solve your Wake problem and you also partially solve your Iwo Jima supply problem. It also frees up assists for other operations. You need to gain air superiority here either with long range cap or fighter sweeps. This will also help you deplete Johns supplies - no air lift or shipping.

I do applaud you for concentrating your fleet finally.

As you war is attributional in nature you also need to find locations to employ more of your medium bomber squadrons (if you have not already).
Keep the steamroller going in Malaya. Your army there is the 800lb gorilla in the room who can walk where ever it wants (and walk is the word).



_____________________________

The Wake

(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 898
RE: Looking Forward - 1/26/2009 3:14:09 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/16/44 to 7/23/44
 
The past week has involved several shifts in Allied focus wtih movement of troops and forces, so it has been a bit quieter than usual.

Japan:  The Allies continue to hit strategic targets every turn or so, but for some reason my B-29s at Shikuka have refused to fly the last two missions.  This has resulted in short-handed missions against Nagasaki and Tokyo that didn't accomplish much, except the latter introduced my pilots to the Frank, which will be a tough opponent.   A large force of P-38s and one group of B-24s from Iwo didn't accomplish anything against a stout CAP includinng 111 Franks over Tokyo on the 23rd.  There have been large and productive strikes against Akita and Niigata.  Tomorrow, I've set up large strikes against Sendai and Akita.

NoPac:  The Allies are shuffling troop fragments around to consolidate units in the correct bases.  Part of this includes augmenting the defenses at Toyohara, which is the base closes to Japan and therefore most likely to receive an invasion should John ever head this way.  Toyohara has 5,000+ mines and Shikuka 20,000.  The Allies are also using the Aleutians, Paramushiro, Onnekotan, and Shikuka's bases as stages to transfer more aircraft to China and SEAC.

CenPac:  The Allies completed the resupply mission to Iwo and Tori Shima and the combined carrier TFs and empty transports are heading back to Midway.  I stripped the two BBs from Iwo's defenses out of concern that they are KB magnets.  For now, I'll see if 200 fighters, a CA/CL TF, and 33,000 mines is sufficient to defend this base.  If trouble arises I'll send the cavalry back.  But for now the cavalry will be charged with escorting the "2nd Wave" of amphibious forces to Wake Island.  I want to take that base so that I can move on to other objectives.

SWPac:  The Allies are sniffing around Koumac to see how strongly it's held.  No sign of the KB in this area, which really surprises me.  I won't disclose where the American/RN carrier force is right now for security reasons.  The Allies will soon invade Espiritu or Luganville, which appear lightly held.

Malaya:  The Allies have cut off the Japanese troops at Malacca, but the Japanese still hold the base and have bled the besieging army badly.  Forts are down to two and the Allies may take Malacca tomorrow.  A major Allied army has advanced to Johore Bahru, held by a large Japanese army.  There is also a large Japanese army at Singapore, and a small contingent at Mersing.  The Allies will take a vacated Kuantan tomorrow.  I posted a small Allied DD force at Singapore to handle Jap barges, but a powerful Jap combat TF (including several CAs) hit last night, sinking three DDs while CL Jintsu was set afire.  Allied air controls this region now, and Liberator IIIs from Georgetown hammered a Japanese transport fleet at Saigon.  A modest Japanese force holds Bangkok (4 units 35,000 strong) and the Allies have a 400 AV army a hex to the north (Lop Buri) which will advance to feel out the strength of the defenses.   If Bangkok looks vulnerable, the Allies have a 1200 AV army across the river.  It looks like John may be prepared to surrender all of Malaya, Siam, and Vietnam as lost causes.

China:  John just loaded up Ichang with what seems to be 500 aircraft (although the base is a level six so 300 is the max allowed per our houserule).  The Allies have been augmenting the number of fighters at main Chinese bases for several weeks.  I've ordered a strike of B-29s (one group), B-24s (one group), and B-25s (four squadrons) to hit Ichang's airfield tomorrow, and I stiffended fighter defenses at Chungking, Changsha, and Hengchow. 

Points:  (A) 59,754 to (J) 54,938.  Ratio:  1.08 to 1.  Strategic Points:  8,576.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/26/2009 3:17:41 PM >

(in reply to Heeward)
Post #: 899
RE: Looking Forward - 1/26/2009 9:37:13 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		7/24/44 and 7/25/44
 
Japan:  All 4EB from Shikuka, including the three B-29 groups, hit Akita and Sendai on the 24th, scoring many hits on resources, heavy industry, and a few other targets.  These groups will stand down a few days and then strike again.

NoPac:  Fighter and bomber squadrons continue to stage through NoPac to China and SEAC.  With abundant airbases and an efficient supply network in the CBI theater, the Allies expect to really ramp up the bombing operations there.

CenPac:  The American carrier group is midway between Iwo and Midway; no sign of the KB (and I really don't expect John to challenge the American carriers).  Thus far the Japs haven't tried any concerted strikes on Iwo or Tori.  The Iwo B-24 group hit Saipan's shipping on the 24th, damaging an AD and two ARs. 

SWPac:  The Allies continue to snoop around Koumac and Luganville contemplating the chances for quick and easy conquests.

Malaya/Siam/Vietnam:  It appears that the Japs will try to hold at Johore Bahru before making a more final stand at Singapore.  It also appears that John may be quiety evacuating troops from Siam and Vietnam.  The Chinese will advance south from Hue to test this possibility on the one side, while the combined Chinese and British army probes Bangkok to the west.  Liberator IIIs from Georgetown hit two CLs in the South China Sea, and other bombers (including two B-29 groups) damaged a dozen or so merchant ships at Saigon.  So what happens if the Japs truly concede SEAC?  Allied bombing would then focus on Palembang and other DEI bases; but what about ground troops?  Invade Java?  Borneo?  Perhaps even coastal China to create the possibility of a link-up with the interior Chinese army and provide airbases close to Formosa and southern Japan?   I'm not sure yet, but I'll mull these over as the situation develops.

Points (as of 7/24/44):  (A)  60,182 to (J) 54,859; Ratio:  1.09 to 1; Strategic Points:  8,872.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 1/26/2009 9:39:14 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 900
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