witpqs
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Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
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quote:
ORIGINAL: rtrapasso
quote:
As far as new technologies go, my understanding is that in the near future (dozens of years) we have nothing that could deploy in time to stop a comet (which is what we are talking about) because we would only know about the danger with at most a few months to spare.
Again, that assumes:
1. That a meteorite would destroy all human life.
No, I said assume that one such comes along every 60,000,000 years. If you like, convert that to 'one that kills 99% comes along every 60,000,000 years'.
2. It would hit between now and the next 12 or so years, and that we couldn't possibly do anything to stop it...
I said "dozens", plural. And I am not trying to say 'We are all doomed! Doomed I tell you!' I am only trying to say that even if you use the best numbers available (you come up with an example), events that are both (rare + big) are very hard for the human mind to relate to.
The "Yucatan Strike" is still highly controversial about what it did to the dinosaurs... it certainly did not kill them all (their ancestors are still around today)... and the fossil record indicates that they were around for a couple of million years AFTER the "Yucatan Strike"... btw, the "Yucatan Strike", while being widely accepted in the US is not widely accepted in other parts of the world (last i read up on this.)
Last I read was today, and a group of researchers is claiming they have found evidence that the comet strike was 300,000 years separated from the K-T boundary mass extinction. I know you do to, but I just gotta say this: I love science. 'Hold it! That's all wrong! Change everything!' 
As for point 2 - i think you underestimate what folks can do when it comes down to life and death... there are some interesting technologies that could divert large objects in space with surprising little effort given a few months lead time... But that is another argument, i suppose.
Unfortunately, it's pure brute force physics. The kind of event we are talking about is a comet strike. If it were a meteor then we stand a good chance of stopping it because we are locating and tracking/projecting orbits into the future on more and more of them. So give ourselves the benefit of the doubt and assume that we will successfully develop one/some of the many techniques & technologies on the drawing board (none actually exist yet but folks are working on it). They all take at least months to deploy, and then many months/years to actually work. That's fine for meteors because we become aware of the danger many orbits (years) in advance.
Comets, on the other hand behave differently. Most are seen by us for the first time because a) their last trip to the inner solar system was either thousands or millions of years ago, or b) they have never made a trip through the inner solar system before. Second, because they begin their fall into the inner solar system from so far away, they are going many times faster than meteors. Third, they are mostly black. Very black. Most simply cannot be seen until they begin to out-gas as a result of being close enough to the sun. This apparently usually occurs somewhere around the orbits of Jupiter or Saturn. By then they are moving very fast and we have at most a few months, maybe two months. Some comets are only seen when they are already on their way back out because their approach was hidden from us by the sun. If one of those is on a collision course we get a few weeks notice, maybe up to two months.
So, comets require massively better technology to deal with just due to the brute force aspects of great speed and short time (and they are still very large objects).
EDIT: Again, what i am saying here is you can pull any number out of a hat and argue for (or against) it... such numbers are relatively meaningless.
I give you my word there were no hats within reach, nor was anyone holding a hat for me, nor was one otherwise available to me for the drawing of numbers. 
Pick any example you like that is rare + big and supply your own numbers. I am only trying to illustrate that humans have trouble relating to them.
And we are not doomed. We are all going to live happy, well adjusted, comet impact-free lives. And some of us might live to see AE released. What are the odds of that?
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