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RE: AI (general): location v. destruction of enemy - 4/5/2008 2:46:21 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: gregtherobot

well,

sort of "a bit" - i have some serious time constraints in my real life . I would be happy to assist in certain specific questions, e.g. the example of choosing the action type. checking options and choices - if everything is covered, sort of playing the bad guy: what if this, what if that etc.

(kind of feels like letting you down on my 3rd post - not a good start!)

you have any examples of what could be in question?

greets

greg the robot


Background Infomration
=============
2.8 Time, Actions, and Activity Limits
There are two basic units of time in WIF: turns and impulses. Most measurements are in turns. But when the AIO moves units around on the map it’s in impulses. For example, how many impulses will it take to move a unit from its current position to another position? For naval units this is the equivalent of turns, since naval units can only move once per turn. Land and air units can relocate once per impulse and travel quite far in a single turn if that turn has 6 impulses per side. Therefore the AIO measures time in terms of impulses for moving land and air units.

For participating in combat, air units are available only once per turn. Land and naval units may be available more than that if their combats are successful or if they are on the defense and just sitting there. Air units can participate in a series of combat rounds during one subphase of an impulse but essentially they are one-and-done during a turn. This means that the number of combat impulses per turn for an air or a naval unit is one, and for a land unit, some number greater than one. The land unit’s number is based on its probability of continuing success.

From these facts the AIO measures: the maximum number of naval moves that might be wanted during a turn, the maximum number of air moves for attacks, plus rebases, and a rough estimate of the number of land moves and attacks desired. The last can be a very large number if the AIO is engaged in a major land offense. Spreading these numbers out over the likely number of impulses remaining in a turn lets the AIO evaluate its ability to accommodate the needs of the Air Marshal, the Admiralty, and the Field Marshals in terms of moves and attacks. The Joint Chiefs of Staff lets each of these decision makers know the number of moves and attacks he can expect for the rest of that turn. The decision makers then incorporate that information into their evaluations of the cost of undertaking various offenses and repositioning units under their command.

This transforms the value of time from turns and impulses into land moves, land attacks, air missions, naval moves, and rail moves! For the individual decision maker these availability numbers serve as constraints on what is feasible to accomplish in the rest of the turn. Time doesn’t really have value under this system, it is simply a constraint.

But using principles from linear programming, when a problem is viewed from a different perspective, constraints can be measured as resources. If each constraint were loosened just a bit, how much more could be done? In game terms, the Joint Chiefs of Staff asks each subordinate decision maker to report how much more he would expect to accomplish, in terms of CVs, if he were given one more land attack, one more air mission, or one more naval move.

Like all “shadow prices” these calculations of the worth of, say, a land attack, have limited applicability. Indeed, the value is calculated for the entire range of possible land attacks from 1 through N. Each additional land attack might have a different CV value. This means that the JCS develops a distribution of CV values for each of the 5 constrained activities: air missions, naval moves, rail moves, land moves, and land attacks. By knowing the value of each of the activity limits they calculate action choices. So, ultimately, the AIO calculates the value of land, naval, air, and combined actions in terms of CVs. From those numbers it gets the CV value of an impulse and turn.
================
Specific Decision:
================
JCS 1 Choose action; see RAC 10 (5 Re)
Action choices are always coordinated with allies. This is true for moving naval units in particular. Coordination is also crucial for joint operations: invasions, paradrops, and strategic bombing campaigns. Pass impulses absolutely have to be coordinated.

This is fairly easy to determine, aside from the coordination aspects. The distributions from task JCS 10, Identify attack opportunities, are used to calculate the worth of Naval, Air, Land, Combined, and Pass actions. The activity limits are dependent on the major power, scenario, and whether the country is at war. Using the distribution and activity limits the action with the highest CV is taken.

Other considerations are postponing the movement, attack, and/or air missions to a future impulse. For example, rebases and strategic bombing can often be postponed. Another possibility is to have an allied major power perform part of a task (e.g., ground strikes).

Coordination with allies requires that the results of all these calculations be passed to the Foreign Liaison for resolution under task FL 4.
===============
Referenced Decisions
===============
JCS 10 Identify attack opportunities; see RAC 11.11, 11.16 (5 Pr)
Attack opportunities can be on land, at sea, or in the air. Land attacks are: (1) assaults, (2) blitzkriegs, (3) overruns, and (4) to occupy empty enemy territory. The last might be simply running a unit over a hex to change who controls it. The naval attacks are: (1) on convoys, (2) on enemy surface fleets (at sea or in port), (3) on submarines, and (4) for control of a sea area (cutting off supply and reinforcements).

Each FM reports on land attack opportunities as part of tasks:
∙ FM 26 (Normal attacks),
∙ FM 27 (Invasions), and
∙ FM 28 (Paradrops).

The Admiralty reports on attack opportunities at sea as part of tasks:
∙ AD 2 (Attacks on naval units),
∙ AD 3 (Attacks on supply lines), and
∙ AD 6 (Port attacks).

The viability of invasions is under the control of the FM, who requests input from the Admiralty before deciding whether an attack opportunity exists.

The JCS identifies strategic bombing opportunities.

The JCS builds 5 CV distributions: for air missions, for naval moves, for rail moves, for land moves, and for land attacks. That is, one distribution for each activity type that has limits. These distributions have as many entries as the maximum number of activities the subordinate DMs would like to have. Each entry is a decimal number, which may be a negative value when failure to act will result in CV losses. Indeed, these might be better titled as defensive opportunities in cases where the DM is trying to minimize a negative CV value.

The difficult decisions are those that require joint operations: air transport, paradrops, and invasions. For these three interrelated activities, the linkages are noted by the subordinates (e.g., 3rd air mission linked to 7th land move - a paradrop). The five distributions are used in task JCS 1 when choosing the action for the impulse.
================
FL 4 Match actions with allies; (4 Co)
{Nothing has been written for this decision yet.}





_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to gregtherobot)
Post #: 91
RE: AI (general): location v. destruction of enemy - 12/19/2008 5:20:25 AM   
Anendrue


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Will the Ai scripts be accessible for players to modify?

_____________________________

Integrity is what you do when nobody is watching.

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 92
RE: AI (general): location v. destruction of enemy - 12/19/2008 5:46:18 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
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quote:

ORIGINAL: abj9562

Will the Ai scripts be accessible for players to modify?

I am not so sure at this point.

The LAIO (Language for AI Opponent) code will be quite technical.
Some of the functions will be hard coded in Pascal (e.g., estimate the number of impulses remaining in the turn).
I worry about players 'seeing' too much of how the AIO 'thinks'.
---
Players say they want to "get into" making the AIO better, but it requires serious work, not just tweaking a parameter here or there. For instance, the logic for setting up the one Persian unit runs to 14 pages.

I believe that players expect to 'correct' the AIO logic by spending an hour or two and fixing dozens of 'problems'. The reality is more like spending a dozen hours to fix a problem or two. Of course, if they put in 100 hours or so working on the scripts, then they will become more productive/faster. A much more likely outcome is that the modified logic will be a real mess causing virtually unpredictable behavior by the AIO (and none of it 'improved').

Many players will consider me a pessimist about this, but take a look at what Peter is doing for setting up the Yugoslavian units (which he posted yesterday). Specifically, look at the logic he lays out in his first post in that thread. That is pseudo-code, which then needs to be translated into LAIO. By which I mean, that the LAIO code is more dense/difficult to read.
---
So, the scripts will be available eventually, but probably not with the initial release. For the most part, this falls into the category I have labeled: WIF Design Kit, which is not part of my contract with Matrix Games.


_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Anendrue)
Post #: 93
RE: AI (general): location v. destruction of enemy - 12/29/2008 6:54:17 PM   
Anendrue


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Sorry for the late reply. I have been busy with the Christmas Holiday Season. I reviewed the Yugoslav pseudo code as you suggested. It appears to be well thought out and the code will be significantly harder for armchair coders than most games.

If I understand these are the reasons for not the LAIO code:

1) Players evaluating the AI and manipulating it to "game" the system. Ruining multiplayer games for many people.
(I think this is perhaps the strongest argument for hrad coding the scripts.)

2) Unforseen possibilities, results, and consequences in the initial AI  scripts.
(These wiill very likely have to be modified for game quality by you after the initial release.

3) Additional support and overhead of making the AI transparent.
(Very understandable business concerns.)

With this knowledge I advocate for no release of the LAIO code at all. If the game design kit comes out I hope the only way to modify LAIO is to write completely new scripts from a generic sample instead of reading and modifying the original. Hopefully this will make both worlds happy for the modder and for people wanting an honest game.

_____________________________

Integrity is what you do when nobody is watching.

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 94
RE: AI (general): location v. destruction of enemy - 12/29/2008 7:12:56 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
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quote:

ORIGINAL: abj9562

Sorry for the late reply. I have been busy with the Christmas Holiday Season. I reviewed the Yugoslav pseudo code as you suggested. It appears to be well thought out and the code will be significantly harder for armchair coders than most games.

If I understand these are the reasons for not the LAIO code:

1) Players evaluating the AI and manipulating it to "game" the system. Ruining multiplayer games for many people.
(I think this is perhaps the strongest argument for hrad coding the scripts.)

2) Unforseen possibilities, results, and consequences in the initial AI  scripts.
(These wiill very likely have to be modified for game quality by you after the initial release.

3) Additional support and overhead of making the AI transparent.
(Very understandable business concerns.)

With this knowledge I advocate for no release of the LAIO code at all. If the game design kit comes out I hope the only way to modify LAIO is to write completely new scripts from a generic sample instead of reading and modifying the original. Hopefully this will make both worlds happy for the modder and for people wanting an honest game.

Thanks. Yes, including a description of LAIO and the scripts as part of the MWIF design kit seems like a good idea to me.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Anendrue)
Post #: 95
RE: AI (general): location v. destruction of enemy - 5/14/2009 12:33:25 PM   
Greywolf

 

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Now that I have read all this I am really impressed with the whole DMs thing.

I still have one question : Will it exist an interface between the player and the FL/GS of the other nations ( played by the AI ) of his side ? Something perhaps as basic as a windows with the strategic plan your computer allies are following or as complete as a request for aerial support or lend-lease.

Or perhaps the trouble is that I plan to play against and with the AI and not only against an AIO. Is there any contengency to add an AIA ?



_____________________________

Lt. Col. Ivan 'Greywolf' Kerensky

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 96
RE: AI (general): location v. destruction of enemy - 5/14/2009 12:46:47 PM   
csharpmao

 

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For MWiF version 1, I think there will be no computer allies.
AI "just" play one side, and you play the other one.

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=1653332

(in reply to Greywolf)
Post #: 97
RE: AI (general): location v. destruction of enemy - 9/28/2009 1:17:23 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
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MWIF AI Opponent Where, Who, and What

I have always understood that these are the 3 big questions for the AI Opponent (AIO): where on the map should the AIO place its units and what should those units do once they get there. I have worked out detailed answers for who and what, by defining an organizational structure for decision making and compiling a detailed list of tasks for each decision makers. In working with Peter on the setups for both the minor countries and the major powers, and on the advice of Ian concerning the value of an abstract topology of the map, I have put some more thought into the question of ‘Where’.

All 3 questions are interrelated since the definition of the size of the area dictates the size of the military force and also what the force is capable of achieving. For this document I have started with the where, though I could just as easily have started with either of the other two questions.

I. Where: Geographical Breakdown of the World Map

Here is what I propose for the geographical breakdown of the World Map, which consists of 70,200 hexes, 83 sea areas, 252 countries, and ~5100 coastal hexes.

Theaters of Operations (TO)
• Asia: Urals to Pacific Ocean, Mongolia, China.
• Europe: Northern Europe to the Urals, North Atlantic, eastern North America.
• Mediterranean: Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, all countries that border same (except the USSR).
• South Atlantic: South Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, all countries that border same (e.g., western Africa, and eastern South and Central America).
• Indian: Indian Ocean, Red Sea, Southern Ocean, all countries that border same (e.g., eastern Africa, western Australia).
• Northeast Pacific: Hawaii to Alaska and the North American west coast.
• South Pacific: eastern Australia to western South America.
• Western Pacific: Kamchatka to Singapore to the Marshals.

Areas of Operations (AO)
Within each TO are Areas of Operations (AO), which come in 3 types:
1. All sea (wet)
2. All land (dry)
3. Coastal hexes (damp)

Here is my first pass on AOs for each TO.
• Asia: central USSR, Siberia/Mongolia, China inland, USSR Pacific coast.
• Europe: eastern North America (inland and coast), North Atlantic Ocean, Murmansk pipeline, European invasions (Bay of Biscay, North Sea, Baltic Sea, and coastal hexes for same), western Europe, Scandinavia, eastern Europe (up to the Urals).
• Mediterranean: Western Med, Italian Coast, Eastern Med, Black Sea, coastal hexes for each of those 4 sea areas.
• South Atlantic: eastern Central/South America, South Atlantic, western Africa.
• Indian: Red Sea, Indian Ocean, Southern Ocean, eastern Africa, Middle East (excluding countries with a Mediterranean coastline), India, western side of Southeast Asia, western side of Australia.
• Northeast Pacific: north eastern Pacific Ocean, western North America, Alaska, Hawaii,
• South Pacific: southern Pacific Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, islands in the South Pacific, western Central and South America.
• Western Pacific: Western Pacific (including various seas from Singapore to Rabaul), Chinese coast, eastern side of Southeast Asia, French Indochina, Japan, Borneo, New Guinea, Marshals, and other island groups in that area of the Pacific Ocean.

Sea Area Groups and Land Regions
AOs are broken down farther, with Wet AOs composed of Sea Area Groups (SAG), Damp AOs composed of coastal hexes (Regions), and Dry AOs composed of all land hexes (Regions). A dry AO is defined by one or more countries, or regions within a country. A damp AO is defined by the sea area it abuts and the country owning the coastal hexes.

For example, the West Med AO consists of these Regions:
• Western Med,
• Spanish-West Med coastline,
• Gibraltar,
• Algeria-West Med coastline,
• Libya-West Med coastline,
• Tunisia-West Med coastline,
• Malta,
• Sardinia/Corsica-West Med coastline,
• French-West Med coastline,
• Italy-West Med coastline.

The intent here is to have an exhaustive and mutually exclusive definition of TOs, AOs, SAGs and Regions. These will encompass all 70,200 hexes without any overlap.

II. Who: Decision Makers

There are 8 types of decision makers, and each major power gets one of each type:
• Grand Strategist
• Commander in Chief
• Manufacturing Council
• Foreign Liaison
• Joint Chiefs of Staff
• Admiralty
• General Staff (Army)
• Air Force General Staff

All of these have global responsibilities for their major power. The last 3 all have subordinates to which they delegate some decision making. The Admiralty assigns a Rear Admiral to each TO and a Fleet Admiral to each wet AO. The General Staff assigns a Field Marshal to each TO, an Army Group Commander to each dry and damp AO, and a General to each Region. The AF General Staff assign an Air Marshal to each TO. An Air Marshal controls 3 Air Fleets: strategic bombing fleet (which he controls directly), naval bombers (which is controlled by the Rear Admiral for the TO), and land bombers (which are controlled by the Field Marshal for the TO).

The way this works is that a TO has a Rear Admiral, Field Marshal, and Air Marshal. A wet AO has an Admiral. Damp and dry AOs each have a Army Group Commander. For finer grained decisions on land there are Generals. As a concrete example of this, the Germans start with one Field Marshal for all of Europe and two Army Group Commanders: AO Western Europe and AO Eastern Europe. The AGC for Western Europe defends against France and the AGC for Eastern Europe takes out Poland. Since these AOs consist of a single Region, there is no need to create Generals.

III. What: Decision Maker Tasks

I have 146 decision points defined for the AIO and for most of them I have worked out how the decisions will be made. Here are some examples of decision points:
// ****************************************************************************
// Joint Chiefs of Staff decisions.
// ****************************************************************************
dmtJCS:
begin
JCS := TJointChiefsOfStaff(Self);;

case TaskIndex of
1: JCS.DecActionChoice;
2: JCS.EstImpulsesleft;
3: JCS.DecReinforcements;
4: JCS.DecReserves;
5: JCS.DecRailMoves;
6: JCS.DecSupplyUnits;
7: JCS.DecReplacements;
8: JCS.DecStrategicBombing;
9: JCS.DecFieldMarshals;
10: JCS.DecAttackOpportunities;
11: JCS.AllocateLimitedActivites;
12: JCS.DecCoordInvasionsPara;
13: JCS.DecOffensiveChit;
end;
end;
// ****************************************************************************
// Air Marshal decisions.
// ****************************************************************************
dmtAM:
begin
AM := TAirMarshal(Self);;

case TaskIndex of
1: AM.DecPilots;
2: AM.DecCarrierAir;
3: AM.DecAirAssignments;
4: AM.EstAirCombat;
5: AM.DecAirArrangement;
6: AM.DecAirAbort;
7: AM.DecAirResults;
8: AM.DecBounce;
9: AM.DecAirPositioning;
10: AM.DecEscInterceptGroundSupport;
11: AM.DecEscInterceptGroundStrike;
12: AM.DecEscInterceptAirReorg;
13: AM.DecEscInterceptAirTransport;
14: AM.DecEscInterceptPortAttack;
15: AM.DecEscInterceptStrategicBombing;
16: AM.DecEscInterceptCarpetBombing;
17: AM.DecEscInterceptParadrop;
end;
end;

================================================
One of my main goals is to be able to define land regions and sea area groups such that they can be assessed as: friendly controlled, enemy controlled, contested, or empty/neutral. That will permit an analysis of front lines moving forward and backward so the army group commanders can plan offensives and fall back positions. Each region can be measured for the strength each side has present and whether reinforcements are needed.

Basically I am thinking that strategic decisions can be made by the 8 primary decision makers and handed off to the decision makers for each TO. Operational decisions can be made at the TO level and handed down to the AO decision makers. Tactical decisions will be in the hands of the SAG and Region commanders. This command structure flows in both directions. The lowest level makes measurements and passes its information upward. When it reaches to top as a summary report, the primary decision makers (starting with the Grand Strategist) then make strategic decisions and pass those down to the lower levels. At the bottom, tactical decisions are made based on instructions received from above. Ideally all decisions follow a coherent master plan.

==================================================

What I need to do now is redistribute some of these based on my modified command structure for the air, naval, and land commanders.

But before I do that, I am interested in any comments on the above.



_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to csharpmao)
Post #: 98
RE: AI (general): location v. destruction of enemy - 9/28/2009 8:07:08 AM   
warspite1


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Steve

Using an example of a recent AAR that was posted, can you let me know:

You have two AGC`s - one for Poland and one for France. Set up for both areas is as per one of the options that Peter has been working on. All good so far.

What happens when the CW force is "spotted" heading for Denmark? i.e. how do the various decision makers work to:

- Decide how many forces, Land, air (and possibly sea) to commit to this threat?
- Is the threat best cut off by invading Denmark first - or waiting for the CW to do so (if indeed thats the target)?
- Where do those forces come from? Is a General created for the "Danish Front"? or does AGC West pick this up?
- At what stage does the manufacturing council decide whether this new unexpected development needs an alternative build plan?
- If the German commit naval forces and they get beaten (thus the Germans suffer early unexpected naval losses), how does the decision making process decide whether to replace these, or continue with the land and air units that Germany need for the French campaign?

_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 99
RE: AI (general): location v. destruction of enemy - 9/28/2009 9:29:33 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
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From: Honolulu, Hawaii
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quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Steve

Using an example of a recent AAR that was posted, can you let me know:

You have two AGC`s - one for Poland and one for France. Set up for both areas is as per one of the options that Peter has been working on. All good so far.

What happens when the CW force is "spotted" heading for Denmark? i.e. how do the various decision makers work to:

- Decide how many forces, Land, air (and possibly sea) to commit to this threat?
- Is the threat best cut off by invading Denmark first - or waiting for the CW to do so (if indeed thats the target)?
- Where do those forces come from? Is a General created for the "Danish Front"? or does AGC West pick this up?
- At what stage does the manufacturing council decide whether this new unexpected development needs an alternative build plan?
- If the German commit naval forces and they get beaten (thus the Germans suffer early unexpected naval losses), how does the decision making process decide whether to replace these, or continue with the land and air units that Germany need for the French campaign?

Some of your questions here are off-topic in they ask about production priorities. The top 8 decision makers funnel their priorities to the manufacturing council which adjudicates who gets what according to the strategic plan.

But on topic was your question about Denmark. That would be part of the European Invasions AO. What I missed in my rather quickly written example is that there would have to be a German AGC for that AO too. As a separate country, Denmark would be its own region (but not multiple regions). The AGC could create two generals, one to deal with threats to Germany (e.g., Kiel) and one to deal with Denmark. However, since these are all so close together the AGC should handle it without creating subordinates.

Subordinates are only created when necessary (e.g., China doesn't need any Rear Admirals, the USSR doesn't need a Field Marshal for the South Pacific). Also, subordinates should only be created when two different tasks are at hand. If there is really only one problem area then that is handled directly.

I see most of the TOs as having no one assigned by most of the major powers. Only the US and CW have a true global presence throughout the war. Then within each TO there might be many empty AOs, with no decision makers involved. As the war progresses, some areas will heat up and need decision makers assigned. When they cool off, the decision makers will disappear. This all mimics how things occurred historically, which is one of the main reasons I favor this design.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 100
RE: AI (general): location v. destruction of enemy - 9/28/2009 10:12:05 AM   
warspite1


Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

Steve

Using an example of a recent AAR that was posted, can you let me know:

You have two AGC`s - one for Poland and one for France. Set up for both areas is as per one of the options that Peter has been working on. All good so far.

What happens when the CW force is "spotted" heading for Denmark? i.e. how do the various decision makers work to:

- Decide how many forces, Land, air (and possibly sea) to commit to this threat?
- Is the threat best cut off by invading Denmark first - or waiting for the CW to do so (if indeed thats the target)?
- Where do those forces come from? Is a General created for the "Danish Front"? or does AGC West pick this up?
- At what stage does the manufacturing council decide whether this new unexpected development needs an alternative build plan?
- If the German commit naval forces and they get beaten (thus the Germans suffer early unexpected naval losses), how does the decision making process decide whether to replace these, or continue with the land and air units that Germany need for the French campaign?

Some of your questions here are off-topic in they ask about production priorities. The top 8 decision makers funnel their priorities to the manufacturing council which adjudicates who gets what according to the strategic plan.

But on topic was your question about Denmark. That would be part of the European Invasions AO. What I missed in my rather quickly written example is that there would have to be a German AGC for that AO too. As a separate country, Denmark would be its own region (but not multiple regions). The AGC could create two generals, one to deal with threats to Germany (e.g., Kiel) and one to deal with Denmark. However, since these are all so close together the AGC should handle it without creating subordinates.

Subordinates are only created when necessary (e.g., China doesn't need any Rear Admirals, the USSR doesn't need a Field Marshal for the South Pacific). Also, subordinates should only be created when two different tasks are at hand. If there is really only one problem area then that is handled directly.

I see most of the TOs as having no one assigned by most of the major powers. Only the US and CW have a true global presence throughout the war. Then within each TO there might be many empty AOs, with no decision makers involved. As the war progresses, some areas will heat up and need decision makers assigned. When they cool off, the decision makers will disappear. This all mimics how things occurred historically, which is one of the main reasons I favor this design.

Warspite1

The off-topic questions were the result of trying to get my head around the AI big picture, so that I can make sense of what you asked for comments on.

The answer re Denmark is useful thank-you and I think I can see the structure that is being put in place. Still a load of questions / queries flying around my head - although these all relate to the practicalities of how decisions are made and prioritised between decision makers.




_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 101
RE: AI (general): location v. destruction of enemy - 9/28/2009 6:16:38 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline
Well, Rob, here is a long answer.
===
II Evaluation Metric
2.1 Overview and Purpose
The AI Opponent (AIO) makes trade-offs between time, materiel, and territory. To do so it uses a common metric that can be applied to all the elements of the game described in Section I. Victory hexes are an exception. Because deciding which hex is a victory hex was somewhat arbitrary and they are scattered all over the world, it is difficult to assign each one a value in a metric that relates to the other elements of game play. So, the AIO deals with victory hexes only at the strategic level and within the Grand Strategist’s decision making.

The other game elements described in Section I are measured in terms of Combat Value (CV) or Combat Value Turn (CVT). CVs are based on the strength of land units. When multiplied by time, they become CVTs. CVs can be thought of as mass and when multiplied by time they become force. This analogy is imperfect and shouldn’t be taken as more than a convenient image. The best points of these metrics are that they let us measure: (1) the strength of each county’s force in absolute and relative terms, and (2) both the forces and time it takes to accomplish a task.

The CV system works with absolute/abstract value. A 6-4 infantry is always a 6-4 infantry. The relative value assessments based on that metric are made by the decision maker depending on the current circumstances. An air unit that is capable of flying all three bomber missions (tactical, strategic, and naval) would have one abstract CV value, but different decision makers (DMs) might assess its relative value differently (the JCS planning strategic bombing, the Admiralty planning naval combat, the Field Marshal planning ground support). At the point of making the decision, the DM calculates a mission specific CV value - the number of bombing factors the unit provides for the air mission type and the subsequent benefit in CVs of the mission succeeding. As another example, having an HQ become disorganized can be very bad. The CV value of the HQ does not change, rather the Field Marshal takes the effect of disorganization into consideration when making his decisions on attacking and defending. The FM translates the disorganization of the HQ into a CV modification due to the consequences of the HQ's changed state.

The result is a universal metric that can be applied to all decisions by the DMs. A combat risks so many CVs; sending a naval task force out costs so many CVTs; flying a strategic bombing mission risks so many CVs - with the possible benefit of inflicting so many CVs of damage on the enemy's production; an air-to-air combat has risk/reward in terms of CVs; capturing resource points gains so many CVs for our side and causes the loss of so many CVs to the enemy; and so on. To keep this metric universal, how it is calculated doesn’t take into consideration all the immediate and possibly changing circumstances. There are simply too many variables involved. At the highest level of the decision making, the metric has to be consistent.

CVs let the AIO compare the risk of taking losses versus the opportunity of inflicting losses on the enemy. This applies for land, air, and naval combats. They are the core ingredient in these decision making processes and are applied to: getting things done, land, air, and naval unit losses on the map, unit construction, and all aspects of transportation lines. They are used to evaluate combat losses and therefore for choosing where to attack. They are a crucial part of deciding which units are best to build. They measure the worth of production and the associated resource transportation lines. And finally, they enable the AIO to assign each hex a value. The last is done as an aggregation of all the previous elements and is explained in Section 2.9.

2.2 Getting Things Done
The cost of getting things done is simply the CV value of the units involved multiplied by the number of turns they will be needed/committed, including transit time. Most decisions consume resources for one turn. Land offensives are the exception to this rule. At the tactical level, Field Marshals make decisions for each impulse. They use the same basic system of units multiplied by time but substitute impulses instead of turns for the time metric. This lets them evaluate whether it is best to defer an attack until a later impulse, when the probability of its success will be better.

2.3 Land Unit Combat Values
The combat value of any land unit on the map is measured in CVs. Conceptually, the CV cost of losing a unit on the map measures the unit’s combat worth. The simplest case is setting the value for a 6-4 infantry unit. It’s strength is 6 and that gives it an CV of 6. To the straight forward combat strength of a land unit, adjustments are made that take into consideration its mobility. Working from a base of 4 movements points, the combat value is incremented or decremented by a ½ point for every difference in movement points. For example, a 7-5 infantry is worth 7.5 CVs and a 6-3 is worth 5.5 CVs. Divisional units are reduced by a full point for their lack of zones of control. There is a minimum combat value of 1 CV for a unit after adjustments, which keeps 2-1 garrison and 1-4 divisional units from becoming entirely worthless.

Many land units have unique abilities: armor, engineers, HQs, AT, AA, artillery, and divisional units in general. There are also weaker units like garrisons, territorials, and militia. The utility of their different capabilities depends on the battlefield situation. Engineers are pretty worthless on defense in the open. ATs have little value if there isn’t any enemy armor launching attacks. Armor attacking Leningrad adds nothing to the attack. Marine units inland are just weak infantry. See Section 4.2.1 for specific details.

2.4 Naval Unit Combat Values
Measuring naval unit combat values is similar to how it is done for land units. Naval unit CVs (NCVs) are converted into standard CVs (i.e., land unit CVs) depending on the game situation. The range adjustments are different for naval units. See Section 4.2.2 for the details on both range adjustments and converting NCVs to CVs.

2.5 Air Unit Combat Values
For an air unit, its CVs (ACVs) depend on its primary purpose: air-to-air factor for fighters, and tactical, strategic, and naval factors for bombers. Air transport units (ATRs) are handled differently. ACVs are converted into standard CVs (i.e., land unit CVs) depending on the game situation. The range adjustments are harder to make for air units than for land units. See Section 4.2.3 for the details on both range adjustments and converting ACVs to CVs.

2.6 Production, Resources, and Factories
The AIO’s strategic plan measures the relative importance of producing armor versus infantry versus militia versus AT and so on. There may be “have to produce” quantities for infantry, armor, and HQs. Any excess production points are spent on units that have the highest CV per build point rating.

The FMs, Admiralty, and Air Marshal provide the Manufacturing Council with assessments of the value (measured in CVs) of different unit types in future years. The trade off between infantry and armor is crucial, especially for Germany and the USSR. There is also the trade off between land units and submarines for Germany. The benefit in land CVs of submarines attacking the Commonwealth merchant marine is substantial. It is measured as either the CVs the Commonwealth loses when the convoy pipeline is damaged/destroyed, or the CV cost incurred diverting build points to construct naval units to protect convoys.

During production each unit type is evaluated in terms of its combat value per build point (CV/BP). When selecting unit types for construction, one that can be built quickly may be more attractive than one that takes a long time. This depends on the effect the unit type will have arriving sooner versus later at a specific battlefield. Thus, militia and territorial units are more desirable when land units are needed immediately for defense or whose roles are simply to garrison against partisans or unlikely attacks. It also makes bombers that take 2 turns more attractive than those that take 3. There are many other factors that go into production decisions. For example, gearing limits are crucial. The AIO’s strategic plan and where it is within that strategic plan are even more important considerations.

Most naval units arrive on the map 2 years after they start production and are converted into land CV equivalents that arrive in those future turns. Indeed, the entire list of arriving reinforcements is a distribution of absolute land CVs that arrive in future turns. The AIO applies to that distribution a weighting scheme that is a function of time. The weights range from 0 to 100 percent.

Given a known or estimated stream of build points for the next X turns, they can be converted into absolute CVs that arrive in future turns. The number of absolute CVs they produce can be determined for each future turn. Build infantry and they generate CVs early. Build naval units and the CV values arrive much later. However, everything comes down to land CVs. The navy is there to transport and support the land army (and resources) and/or to prevent the same by enemy navies. The air force is only there to support the land army (plus strategic bombing) and/or to prevent the same by enemy air forces. The value of naval and air units are converted into land unit CVs. Even different types of land units are converted into standard infantry CVs (with 4 movement points). Converting other land units CVs into infantry CVs is based on their combat advantages (e.g., ENG), or the number of reorganizations they provide (e.g., HQs). It is messy, but it produces a universal metric.

At the end of the production phase, the Manufacturing Council reports the average CV value/build point for the turn. This average is based on the resulting stream of land equivalent CVs, after weighting them by time of arrival. Based on the current turn's CV distribution for future turns, the AIO projects a similar distribution for the next turn (starting one turn later) and applies the weights to that arriving CV stream. Continuing the process for remaining future years lets the AIO estimate the CV/BP for all future turns. From the CV/BP the AIO calculates the CV/resource point for the present and all future turns.

Based on the most recent production phase, the AIO calculates the value of an individual build point (BP) in terms of CVs. From that the AIO knows the value of successful strategic bombing and submarine warfare. The AIO also knows the value of a resource point (assuming it can be used in production). These may be modified if the resource points can not be used immediately because of factory constraints. Capturing factories works the same way. The value of evacuating factories is a trade off between the lost build points during the time they are out of production versus the risk of losing them completely times the number of turns remaining in the game after they are lost. Note that the value of a BP is determined separately for each major power

The main concept of this section is that each build point, resource point, and factory is worth the average CVs it can be used to produce.

2.7 Transportation Lines and Supply
Protecting convoys and controlling sea areas are first evaluated in terms of their necessity for transporting resources to factories. The cost of a convoy pipeline capacity being reduced by one convoy is measured in terms of both the convoy unit that is lost plus: the lost of the average CV/BP times the number of turns it will take to restore the convoy pipeline to full capacity. The value of rail hexes that connect a resource to a factory (e.g., in the USSR) is handled the same way. If 3 resources cannot reach a factory because the rail line is cut, then that is only slightly less expensive than having three convoys sunk. Of course, the value of each rail hex depends on it being part of a functioning rail line. This means that the CV value is associated with the rail line, and an individual rail hex is important if and only if it keeps the rail line intact. Rail lines also have additional value if they are needed to evacuate factories, maintain supply, and/or transport units by rail.

Murmansk, or any hex (e.g., a port) or sea area that is an essential part of a supply line, has the worth of the supplies that are being transported. This applies to both resources and units. The AIO also assesses the effect of being out of supply and not being able to transport units to the front.

Keeping units in supply is another function performed by transportation lines. Putting units out of supply reduces their CV directly if they are disorganized. The benefit of putting enemy units out of supply equals the changes in their CV values multiplied by how long they will be out of supply. Even organized units, when out of supply, are modified as if their mobility were zero, since moving would cause them to become disorganized. Units that are out of supply are both more vulnerable to attack and also unable to make attacks. Being out of supply at the end of a turn can at times compound the problem by denying disorganized units the ability to reorganize.

2.8 Time, Actions, and Activity Limits
There are two basic units of time in WIF: turns and impulses. Most measurements are in turns. But when the AIO moves units around on the map it’s in impulses. For example, how many impulses will it take to move a unit from its current position to another position? For naval units this is the equivalent of turns, since naval units can only move once per turn. Land and air units can relocate once per impulse and travel quite far in a single turn if that turn has 6 impulses per side. Therefore the AIO measures time in terms of impulses for moving land and air units.

For participating in combat, air units are available only once per turn. Land and naval units may be available more than that if their combats are successful or if they are on the defense and just sitting there. Air units can participate in a series of combat rounds during one subphase of an impulse but essentially they are one-and-done during a turn. This means that the number of combat impulses per turn for an air or a naval unit is one, and for a land unit, some number greater than one. The land unit’s number is based on its probability of continuing success.

From these facts the AIO measures: the maximum number of naval moves that might be wanted during a turn, the maximum number of air moves for attacks, plus rebases, and a rough estimate of the number of land moves and attacks desired. The last can be a very large number if the AIO is engaged in a major land offense. Spreading these numbers out over the likely number of impulses remaining in a turn lets the AIO evaluate its ability to accommodate the needs of the Air Marshal, the Admiralty, and the Field Marshals in terms of moves and attacks. The Joint Chiefs of Staff lets each of these decision makers know the number of moves and attacks he can expect for the rest of that turn. The decision makers then incorporate that information into their evaluations of the cost of undertaking various offenses and repositioning units under their command.

This transforms the value of time from turns and impulses into land moves, land attacks, air missions, naval moves, and rail moves! For the individual decision maker these availability numbers serve as constraints on what is feasible to accomplish in the rest of the turn. Time doesn’t really have value under this system, it is simply a constraint.

But using principles from linear programming, when a problem is viewed from a different perspective, constraints can be measured as resources. If each constraint were loosened just a bit, how much more could be done? In game terms, the Joint Chiefs of Staff asks each subordinate decision maker to report how much more he would expect to accomplish, in terms of CVs, if he were given one more land attack, one more air mission, or one more naval move.

Like all “shadow prices” these calculations of the worth of, say, a land attack, have limited applicability. Indeed, the value is calculated for the entire range of possible land attacks from 1 through N. Each additional land attack might have a different CV value. This means that the JCS develops a distribution of CV values for each of the 5 constrained activities: air missions, naval moves, rail moves, land moves, and land attacks. By knowing the value of each of the activity limits they calculate action choices. So, ultimately, the AIO calculates the value of land, naval, air, and combined actions in terms of CVs. From those numbers it gets the CV value of an impulse and turn.

2.9 Hexes
The ultimate goal is to be able to evaluate the risk of losing units in combat versus the gain of capturing hexes close to enemy capitals, resources and factories. There has to be very strong motivation in terms of CVs for the AIO, playing Germany, to drive on Paris and Moscow and to contemplate invading Britain. Victory cities only play a role in the Grand Strategist decision making.

All of this leads to the value of land hexes. Now in and of themselves, hexes usually have no value. The exceptions are the specific hexes mentioned in the paragraphs above (capitals, resources, factories, rail lines, and victory hexes) and to that list we can add sources of supply when supply is hard to come by. But even the most mundane of hexes can rise in importance when the battle lines draw near. It is as part of a front line that hexes achieve their primary importance. Looking at Germany versus France in 1940, Germany versus the USSR in 1941, and China versus Japan in any year, the outstanding characteristic of the land combat is where the front lines are. What exactly is the value of a hex in the front line?

When on defense, we can count hexes defended by rivers as worth double “the average CV for the front line” since they effectively double defensive strength. We can count forest hexes as half the enemy’s average tactical air CV since they cut ground strikes and ground support in half. We give cities a bonus for giving the defender the choice of combat tables. We penalize clear hexes if the enemy has armor capable of overrunning our weaker units and/or gaining an armor bonus. And there are similar adjustments for other types of hex and hexside terrain. But when on the attack, all of these change in importance. It is better to attack weak hexes and force the enemy to abandon strong ones because of the threat to his lines of communications.

For both attackers and defenders, maintaining a continuous line is very important. Only under unusual circumstances can the goal of maintaining a continuous line be put aside. Holes in a front line enable enemy to ooze, slip, or charge through the line, threatening the supply lines of units in the front line. Therefore, a porous front line costs CVs by means of calculating units becoming out of supply or isolated.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to warspite1)
Post #: 102
RE: AI (general): location v. destruction of enemy - 9/28/2009 9:21:57 PM   
warspite1


Posts: 41353
Joined: 2/2/2008
From: England
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Well, Rob, here is a long answer.
===
II Evaluation Metric
2.1 Overview and Purpose
The AI Opponent (AIO) makes trade-offs between time, materiel, and territory. To do so it uses a common metric that can be applied to all the elements of the game described in Section I. Victory hexes are an exception. Because deciding which hex is a victory hex was somewhat arbitrary and they are scattered all over the world, it is difficult to assign each one a value in a metric that relates to the other elements of game play. So, the AIO deals with victory hexes only at the strategic level and within the Grand Strategist’s decision making.

The other game elements described in Section I are measured in terms of Combat Value (CV) or Combat Value Turn (CVT). CVs are based on the strength of land units. When multiplied by time, they become CVTs. CVs can be thought of as mass and when multiplied by time they become force. This analogy is imperfect and shouldn’t be taken as more than a convenient image. The best points of these metrics are that they let us measure: (1) the strength of each county’s force in absolute and relative terms, and (2) both the forces and time it takes to accomplish a task.

The CV system works with absolute/abstract value. A 6-4 infantry is always a 6-4 infantry. The relative value assessments based on that metric are made by the decision maker depending on the current circumstances. An air unit that is capable of flying all three bomber missions (tactical, strategic, and naval) would have one abstract CV value, but different decision makers (DMs) might assess its relative value differently (the JCS planning strategic bombing, the Admiralty planning naval combat, the Field Marshal planning ground support). At the point of making the decision, the DM calculates a mission specific CV value - the number of bombing factors the unit provides for the air mission type and the subsequent benefit in CVs of the mission succeeding. As another example, having an HQ become disorganized can be very bad. The CV value of the HQ does not change, rather the Field Marshal takes the effect of disorganization into consideration when making his decisions on attacking and defending. The FM translates the disorganization of the HQ into a CV modification due to the consequences of the HQ's changed state.

The result is a universal metric that can be applied to all decisions by the DMs. A combat risks so many CVs; sending a naval task force out costs so many CVTs; flying a strategic bombing mission risks so many CVs - with the possible benefit of inflicting so many CVs of damage on the enemy's production; an air-to-air combat has risk/reward in terms of CVs; capturing resource points gains so many CVs for our side and causes the loss of so many CVs to the enemy; and so on. To keep this metric universal, how it is calculated doesn’t take into consideration all the immediate and possibly changing circumstances. There are simply too many variables involved. At the highest level of the decision making, the metric has to be consistent.

CVs let the AIO compare the risk of taking losses versus the opportunity of inflicting losses on the enemy. This applies for land, air, and naval combats. They are the core ingredient in these decision making processes and are applied to: getting things done, land, air, and naval unit losses on the map, unit construction, and all aspects of transportation lines. They are used to evaluate combat losses and therefore for choosing where to attack. They are a crucial part of deciding which units are best to build. They measure the worth of production and the associated resource transportation lines. And finally, they enable the AIO to assign each hex a value. The last is done as an aggregation of all the previous elements and is explained in Section 2.9.

2.2 Getting Things Done
The cost of getting things done is simply the CV value of the units involved multiplied by the number of turns they will be needed/committed, including transit time. Most decisions consume resources for one turn. Land offensives are the exception to this rule. At the tactical level, Field Marshals make decisions for each impulse. They use the same basic system of units multiplied by time but substitute impulses instead of turns for the time metric. This lets them evaluate whether it is best to defer an attack until a later impulse, when the probability of its success will be better.

2.3 Land Unit Combat Values
The combat value of any land unit on the map is measured in CVs. Conceptually, the CV cost of losing a unit on the map measures the unit’s combat worth. The simplest case is setting the value for a 6-4 infantry unit. It’s strength is 6 and that gives it an CV of 6. To the straight forward combat strength of a land unit, adjustments are made that take into consideration its mobility. Working from a base of 4 movements points, the combat value is incremented or decremented by a ½ point for every difference in movement points. For example, a 7-5 infantry is worth 7.5 CVs and a 6-3 is worth 5.5 CVs. Divisional units are reduced by a full point for their lack of zones of control. There is a minimum combat value of 1 CV for a unit after adjustments, which keeps 2-1 garrison and 1-4 divisional units from becoming entirely worthless.

Many land units have unique abilities: armor, engineers, HQs, AT, AA, artillery, and divisional units in general. There are also weaker units like garrisons, territorials, and militia. The utility of their different capabilities depends on the battlefield situation. Engineers are pretty worthless on defense in the open. ATs have little value if there isn’t any enemy armor launching attacks. Armor attacking Leningrad adds nothing to the attack. Marine units inland are just weak infantry. See Section 4.2.1 for specific details.

2.4 Naval Unit Combat Values
Measuring naval unit combat values is similar to how it is done for land units. Naval unit CVs (NCVs) are converted into standard CVs (i.e., land unit CVs) depending on the game situation. The range adjustments are different for naval units. See Section 4.2.2 for the details on both range adjustments and converting NCVs to CVs.

2.5 Air Unit Combat Values
For an air unit, its CVs (ACVs) depend on its primary purpose: air-to-air factor for fighters, and tactical, strategic, and naval factors for bombers. Air transport units (ATRs) are handled differently. ACVs are converted into standard CVs (i.e., land unit CVs) depending on the game situation. The range adjustments are harder to make for air units than for land units. See Section 4.2.3 for the details on both range adjustments and converting ACVs to CVs.

2.6 Production, Resources, and Factories
The AIO’s strategic plan measures the relative importance of producing armor versus infantry versus militia versus AT and so on. There may be “have to produce” quantities for infantry, armor, and HQs. Any excess production points are spent on units that have the highest CV per build point rating.

The FMs, Admiralty, and Air Marshal provide the Manufacturing Council with assessments of the value (measured in CVs) of different unit types in future years. The trade off between infantry and armor is crucial, especially for Germany and the USSR. There is also the trade off between land units and submarines for Germany. The benefit in land CVs of submarines attacking the Commonwealth merchant marine is substantial. It is measured as either the CVs the Commonwealth loses when the convoy pipeline is damaged/destroyed, or the CV cost incurred diverting build points to construct naval units to protect convoys.

During production each unit type is evaluated in terms of its combat value per build point (CV/BP). When selecting unit types for construction, one that can be built quickly may be more attractive than one that takes a long time. This depends on the effect the unit type will have arriving sooner versus later at a specific battlefield. Thus, militia and territorial units are more desirable when land units are needed immediately for defense or whose roles are simply to garrison against partisans or unlikely attacks. It also makes bombers that take 2 turns more attractive than those that take 3. There are many other factors that go into production decisions. For example, gearing limits are crucial. The AIO’s strategic plan and where it is within that strategic plan are even more important considerations.

Most naval units arrive on the map 2 years after they start production and are converted into land CV equivalents that arrive in those future turns. Indeed, the entire list of arriving reinforcements is a distribution of absolute land CVs that arrive in future turns. The AIO applies to that distribution a weighting scheme that is a function of time. The weights range from 0 to 100 percent.

Given a known or estimated stream of build points for the next X turns, they can be converted into absolute CVs that arrive in future turns. The number of absolute CVs they produce can be determined for each future turn. Build infantry and they generate CVs early. Build naval units and the CV values arrive much later. However, everything comes down to land CVs. The navy is there to transport and support the land army (and resources) and/or to prevent the same by enemy navies. The air force is only there to support the land army (plus strategic bombing) and/or to prevent the same by enemy air forces. The value of naval and air units are converted into land unit CVs. Even different types of land units are converted into standard infantry CVs (with 4 movement points). Converting other land units CVs into infantry CVs is based on their combat advantages (e.g., ENG), or the number of reorganizations they provide (e.g., HQs). It is messy, but it produces a universal metric.

At the end of the production phase, the Manufacturing Council reports the average CV value/build point for the turn. This average is based on the resulting stream of land equivalent CVs, after weighting them by time of arrival. Based on the current turn's CV distribution for future turns, the AIO projects a similar distribution for the next turn (starting one turn later) and applies the weights to that arriving CV stream. Continuing the process for remaining future years lets the AIO estimate the CV/BP for all future turns. From the CV/BP the AIO calculates the CV/resource point for the present and all future turns.

Based on the most recent production phase, the AIO calculates the value of an individual build point (BP) in terms of CVs. From that the AIO knows the value of successful strategic bombing and submarine warfare. The AIO also knows the value of a resource point (assuming it can be used in production). These may be modified if the resource points can not be used immediately because of factory constraints. Capturing factories works the same way. The value of evacuating factories is a trade off between the lost build points during the time they are out of production versus the risk of losing them completely times the number of turns remaining in the game after they are lost. Note that the value of a BP is determined separately for each major power

The main concept of this section is that each build point, resource point, and factory is worth the average CVs it can be used to produce.

2.7 Transportation Lines and Supply
Protecting convoys and controlling sea areas are first evaluated in terms of their necessity for transporting resources to factories. The cost of a convoy pipeline capacity being reduced by one convoy is measured in terms of both the convoy unit that is lost plus: the lost of the average CV/BP times the number of turns it will take to restore the convoy pipeline to full capacity. The value of rail hexes that connect a resource to a factory (e.g., in the USSR) is handled the same way. If 3 resources cannot reach a factory because the rail line is cut, then that is only slightly less expensive than having three convoys sunk. Of course, the value of each rail hex depends on it being part of a functioning rail line. This means that the CV value is associated with the rail line, and an individual rail hex is important if and only if it keeps the rail line intact. Rail lines also have additional value if they are needed to evacuate factories, maintain supply, and/or transport units by rail.

Murmansk, or any hex (e.g., a port) or sea area that is an essential part of a supply line, has the worth of the supplies that are being transported. This applies to both resources and units. The AIO also assesses the effect of being out of supply and not being able to transport units to the front.

Keeping units in supply is another function performed by transportation lines. Putting units out of supply reduces their CV directly if they are disorganized. The benefit of putting enemy units out of supply equals the changes in their CV values multiplied by how long they will be out of supply. Even organized units, when out of supply, are modified as if their mobility were zero, since moving would cause them to become disorganized. Units that are out of supply are both more vulnerable to attack and also unable to make attacks. Being out of supply at the end of a turn can at times compound the problem by denying disorganized units the ability to reorganize.

2.8 Time, Actions, and Activity Limits
There are two basic units of time in WIF: turns and impulses. Most measurements are in turns. But when the AIO moves units around on the map it’s in impulses. For example, how many impulses will it take to move a unit from its current position to another position? For naval units this is the equivalent of turns, since naval units can only move once per turn. Land and air units can relocate once per impulse and travel quite far in a single turn if that turn has 6 impulses per side. Therefore the AIO measures time in terms of impulses for moving land and air units.

For participating in combat, air units are available only once per turn. Land and naval units may be available more than that if their combats are successful or if they are on the defense and just sitting there. Air units can participate in a series of combat rounds during one subphase of an impulse but essentially they are one-and-done during a turn. This means that the number of combat impulses per turn for an air or a naval unit is one, and for a land unit, some number greater than one. The land unit’s number is based on its probability of continuing success.

From these facts the AIO measures: the maximum number of naval moves that might be wanted during a turn, the maximum number of air moves for attacks, plus rebases, and a rough estimate of the number of land moves and attacks desired. The last can be a very large number if the AIO is engaged in a major land offense. Spreading these numbers out over the likely number of impulses remaining in a turn lets the AIO evaluate its ability to accommodate the needs of the Air Marshal, the Admiralty, and the Field Marshals in terms of moves and attacks. The Joint Chiefs of Staff lets each of these decision makers know the number of moves and attacks he can expect for the rest of that turn. The decision makers then incorporate that information into their evaluations of the cost of undertaking various offenses and repositioning units under their command.

This transforms the value of time from turns and impulses into land moves, land attacks, air missions, naval moves, and rail moves! For the individual decision maker these availability numbers serve as constraints on what is feasible to accomplish in the rest of the turn. Time doesn’t really have value under this system, it is simply a constraint.

But using principles from linear programming, when a problem is viewed from a different perspective, constraints can be measured as resources. If each constraint were loosened just a bit, how much more could be done? In game terms, the Joint Chiefs of Staff asks each subordinate decision maker to report how much more he would expect to accomplish, in terms of CVs, if he were given one more land attack, one more air mission, or one more naval move.

Like all “shadow prices” these calculations of the worth of, say, a land attack, have limited applicability. Indeed, the value is calculated for the entire range of possible land attacks from 1 through N. Each additional land attack might have a different CV value. This means that the JCS develops a distribution of CV values for each of the 5 constrained activities: air missions, naval moves, rail moves, land moves, and land attacks. By knowing the value of each of the activity limits they calculate action choices. So, ultimately, the AIO calculates the value of land, naval, air, and combined actions in terms of CVs. From those numbers it gets the CV value of an impulse and turn.

2.9 Hexes
The ultimate goal is to be able to evaluate the risk of losing units in combat versus the gain of capturing hexes close to enemy capitals, resources and factories. There has to be very strong motivation in terms of CVs for the AIO, playing Germany, to drive on Paris and Moscow and to contemplate invading Britain. Victory cities only play a role in the Grand Strategist decision making.

All of this leads to the value of land hexes. Now in and of themselves, hexes usually have no value. The exceptions are the specific hexes mentioned in the paragraphs above (capitals, resources, factories, rail lines, and victory hexes) and to that list we can add sources of supply when supply is hard to come by. But even the most mundane of hexes can rise in importance when the battle lines draw near. It is as part of a front line that hexes achieve their primary importance. Looking at Germany versus France in 1940, Germany versus the USSR in 1941, and China versus Japan in any year, the outstanding characteristic of the land combat is where the front lines are. What exactly is the value of a hex in the front line?

When on defense, we can count hexes defended by rivers as worth double “the average CV for the front line” since they effectively double defensive strength. We can count forest hexes as half the enemy’s average tactical air CV since they cut ground strikes and ground support in half. We give cities a bonus for giving the defender the choice of combat tables. We penalize clear hexes if the enemy has armor capable of overrunning our weaker units and/or gaining an armor bonus. And there are similar adjustments for other types of hex and hexside terrain. But when on the attack, all of these change in importance. It is better to attack weak hexes and force the enemy to abandon strong ones because of the threat to his lines of communications.

For both attackers and defenders, maintaining a continuous line is very important. Only under unusual circumstances can the goal of maintaining a continuous line be put aside. Holes in a front line enable enemy to ooze, slip, or charge through the line, threatening the supply lines of units in the front line. Therefore, a porous front line costs CVs by means of calculating units becoming out of supply or isolated.

Warspite1

Yeah - thats what I thought


_____________________________

England expects that every man will do his duty. Horatio Nelson October 1805



(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 103
MWIF AI Opponent Where, Who, and What - 9/28/2009 9:30:56 PM   
Froonp


Posts: 7995
Joined: 10/21/2003
From: Marseilles, France
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
Theaters of Operations (TO)
• Asia: Urals to Pacific Ocean, Mongolia, China.
• Europe: Northern Europe to the Urals, North Atlantic, eastern North America.
• Mediterranean: Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, all countries that border same (except the USSR).
• South Atlantic: South Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, all countries that border same (e.g., western Africa, and eastern South and Central America).
• Indian: Indian Ocean, Red Sea, Southern Ocean, all countries that border same (e.g., eastern Africa, western Australia).
• Northeast Pacific: Hawaii to Alaska and the North American west coast.
• South Pacific: eastern Australia to western South America.
• Western Pacific: Kamchatka to Singapore to the Marshals.

Areas of Operations (AO)
Within each TO are Areas of Operations (AO), which come in 3 types:
1. All sea (wet)
2. All land (dry)
3. Coastal hexes (damp)

Here is my first pass on AOs for each TO.
• Asia: central USSR, Siberia/Mongolia, China inland, USSR Pacific coast.
• Europe: eastern North America (inland and coast), North Atlantic Ocean, Murmansk pipeline, European invasions (Bay of Biscay, North Sea, Baltic Sea, and coastal hexes for same), western Europe, Scandinavia, eastern Europe (up to the Urals).
• Mediterranean: Western Med, Italian Coast, Eastern Med, Black Sea, coastal hexes for each of those 4 sea areas.

Plus all Italy, not only coastal hexes. Except if you count more than 1 hex in depth inland for coastal hexes in which case Italy is already contained in this AO.
Also, I'd include the Cape St Vincent and the Red Sea Sea Areas in this TO because typically they are sea areas that are contested by countries who have something to do in the Mediterranean TO.

quote:

• South Atlantic: eastern Central/South America, South Atlantic, western Africa.

Up to Cape Basin to the East , and up to the Drake Passage to the west ? Looks good. Here are fought the Raiders war.

quote:

• Indian: Red Sea, Indian Ocean, Southern Ocean, eastern Africa, Middle East (excluding countries with a Mediterranean coastline), India, western side of Southeast Asia, western side of Australia.

I'd include the Red Sea in the Mediterranean TO. The reason is that you wage war in the Red Sea because of ambitions in Egypt, not as an entry point to the Indian Ocean. For me the Indian Ocea TO begins in the Arabian Sea.

quote:

• Northeast Pacific: north eastern Pacific Ocean, western North America, Alaska, Hawaii,
• South Pacific: southern Pacific Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, islands in the South Pacific, western Central and South America.

Maybe this is too large ? I would see it go up to South Pacific / East Polynesia sea areas, but I would have the 5 sea areas to the east (Austral, East Pacific, Gulf of Panama, Peruvian Coast & Chilean Coast as well as coastal countries) as another TO. Another Raider's land.

quote:

• Western Pacific: Western Pacific (including various seas from Singapore to Rabaul), Chinese coast, eastern side of Southeast Asia, French Indochina, Japan, Borneo, New Guinea, Marshals, and other island groups in that area of the Pacific Ocean.

Typically this is the Japan playground.


quote:

Sea Area Groups and Land Regions
AOs are broken down farther, with Wet AOs composed of Sea Area Groups (SAG), Damp AOs composed of coastal hexes (Regions), and Dry AOs composed of all land hexes (Regions). A dry AO is defined by one or more countries, or regions within a country. A damp AO is defined by the sea area it abuts and the country owning the coastal hexes.

For example, the West Med AO consists of these Regions:
• Western Med,
• Spanish-West Med coastline,
• Gibraltar,
• Algeria-West Med coastline,
• Libya-West Med coastline,
• Tunisia-West Med coastline,
• Malta,
• Sardinia/Corsica-West Med coastline,
• French-West Med coastline,
• Italy-West Med coastline.

The intent here is to have an exhaustive and mutually exclusive definition of TOs, AOs, SAGs and Regions. These will encompass all 70,200 hexes without any overlap.

You make me want to start a spreadsheet with all the countries & sea areas and the TO, AO and SAG they are in !!!

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 104
RE: MWIF AI Opponent Where, Who, and What - 9/28/2009 10:12:32 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Froonp

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
Theaters of Operations (TO)
• Asia: Urals to Pacific Ocean, Mongolia, China.
• Europe: Northern Europe to the Urals, North Atlantic, eastern North America.
• Mediterranean: Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, all countries that border same (except the USSR).
• South Atlantic: South Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, all countries that border same (e.g., western Africa, and eastern South and Central America).
• Indian: Indian Ocean, Red Sea, Southern Ocean, all countries that border same (e.g., eastern Africa, western Australia).
• Northeast Pacific: Hawaii to Alaska and the North American west coast.
• South Pacific: eastern Australia to western South America.
• Western Pacific: Kamchatka to Singapore to the Marshals.

Areas of Operations (AO)
Within each TO are Areas of Operations (AO), which come in 3 types:
1. All sea (wet)
2. All land (dry)
3. Coastal hexes (damp)

Here is my first pass on AOs for each TO.
• Asia: central USSR, Siberia/Mongolia, China inland, USSR Pacific coast.
• Europe: eastern North America (inland and coast), North Atlantic Ocean, Murmansk pipeline, European invasions (Bay of Biscay, North Sea, Baltic Sea, and coastal hexes for same), western Europe, Scandinavia, eastern Europe (up to the Urals).
• Mediterranean: Western Med, Italian Coast, Eastern Med, Black Sea, coastal hexes for each of those 4 sea areas.

Plus all Italy, not only coastal hexes. Except if you count more than 1 hex in depth inland for coastal hexes in which case Italy is already contained in this AO.
Also, I'd include the Cape St Vincent and the Red Sea Sea Areas in this TO because typically they are sea areas that are contested by countries who have something to do in the Mediterranean TO.

quote:

• South Atlantic: eastern Central/South America, South Atlantic, western Africa.

Up to Cape Basin to the East , and up to the Drake Passage to the west ? Looks good. Here are fought the Raiders war.

quote:

• Indian: Red Sea, Indian Ocean, Southern Ocean, eastern Africa, Middle East (excluding countries with a Mediterranean coastline), India, western side of Southeast Asia, western side of Australia.

I'd include the Red Sea in the Mediterranean TO. The reason is that you wage war in the Red Sea because of ambitions in Egypt, not as an entry point to the Indian Ocean. For me the Indian Ocea TO begins in the Arabian Sea.

quote:

• Northeast Pacific: north eastern Pacific Ocean, western North America, Alaska, Hawaii,
• South Pacific: southern Pacific Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, islands in the South Pacific, western Central and South America.

Maybe this is too large ? I would see it go up to South Pacific / East Polynesia sea areas, but I would have the 5 sea areas to the east (Austral, East Pacific, Gulf of Panama, Peruvian Coast & Chilean Coast as well as coastal countries) as another TO. Another Raider's land.

quote:

• Western Pacific: Western Pacific (including various seas from Singapore to Rabaul), Chinese coast, eastern side of Southeast Asia, French Indochina, Japan, Borneo, New Guinea, Marshals, and other island groups in that area of the Pacific Ocean.

Typically this is the Japan playground.


quote:

Sea Area Groups and Land Regions
AOs are broken down farther, with Wet AOs composed of Sea Area Groups (SAG), Damp AOs composed of coastal hexes (Regions), and Dry AOs composed of all land hexes (Regions). A dry AO is defined by one or more countries, or regions within a country. A damp AO is defined by the sea area it abuts and the country owning the coastal hexes.

For example, the West Med AO consists of these Regions:
• Western Med,
• Spanish-West Med coastline,
• Gibraltar,
• Algeria-West Med coastline,
• Libya-West Med coastline,
• Tunisia-West Med coastline,
• Malta,
• Sardinia/Corsica-West Med coastline,
• French-West Med coastline,
• Italy-West Med coastline.

The intent here is to have an exhaustive and mutually exclusive definition of TOs, AOs, SAGs and Regions. These will encompass all 70,200 hexes without any overlap.

You make me want to start a spreadsheet with all the countries & sea areas and the TO, AO and SAG they are in !!!


Oh, be my guest on setting up that spreadsheet. You might find volunteers to help with parts of it.

I believe the Red Sea should be part of the Indian TO. This mainly has to do with naval units reaching the sea area. Given that Suez and Gibraltar act as valves on accessing the Mediterranean, sea areas outside of those blockage points should be separate.

Several countries will be split into two TOs: Egypt and France, for instance.

Here is a rough data structure for the TOs, AOs, SAGs, and Regions:

TO
- list of AOs

AO
- parent TO
- list of SAGs
- list of countries (wholly contained)
- list of Regions within countries (where the countries are split between regions)

SAG
- parent AO
- list of sea areas

Region
- parent AO
- list of countries (wholly contained)
- list of coastal boundaries (sea area + country)
- list of country borders (country + country)
- list of inland hexes (not bordering a sea area nor another country).

I am using the label country very loosely here, in the sense of any of the 252 'countries' in MWIF.

For the last entry under regions, I am thinking of breaking the massive number of hexes in the USSR into regions. This would be necessary to define fall back positions when defending and 'regions' to occupy/clear of enemy units when advancing.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Froonp)
Post #: 105
RE: MWIF AI Opponent Where, Who, and What - 9/28/2009 10:29:08 PM   
Froonp


Posts: 7995
Joined: 10/21/2003
From: Marseilles, France
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
I believe the Red Sea should be part of the Indian TO. This mainly has to do with naval units reaching the sea area. Given that Suez and Gibraltar act as valves on accessing the Mediterranean, sea areas outside of those blockage points should be separate.

This is not a reason.
If the Med is closed, then the Cape St Vincent is the nearest place from the Med from where campaign in the Med. Same for the Red Sea for the eastern approach.

Being involved in a campaign in Egypt in my current Vassal game, I have the Italians flying every turn in the Red Sea from near Cairo to help cutting the supply of the last British presence in Egypt, helped in that by German Raiders sailing from ports in Mozambique & Timor into the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. If the Red Sea is not in the Mediterranean TO, how is the AIO going to think about assigning Italians planes from the Med TO to the Red Sea to cut supply to the British Italy is fighting in Egypt ?

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 106
RE: MWIF AI Opponent Where, Who, and What - 9/28/2009 10:59:57 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Froonp

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
I believe the Red Sea should be part of the Indian TO. This mainly has to do with naval units reaching the sea area. Given that Suez and Gibraltar act as valves on accessing the Mediterranean, sea areas outside of those blockage points should be separate.

This is not a reason.
If the Med is closed, then the Cape St Vincent is the nearest place from the Med from where campaign in the Med. Same for the Red Sea for the eastern approach.

Being involved in a campaign in Egypt in my current Vassal game, I have the Italians flying every turn in the Red Sea from near Cairo to help cutting the supply of the last British presence in Egypt, helped in that by German Raiders sailing from ports in Mozambique & Timor into the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. If the Red Sea is not in the Mediterranean TO, how is the AIO going to think about assigning Italians planes from the Med TO to the Red Sea to cut supply to the British Italy is fighting in Egypt ?


There are always going to be 'issues' at the borders of the TOs. Singapore comes to mind.

In your example, the Italian air units are based in the Med. That they are flying outside their TO is no big deal. They are assigned to the Med TO and are 'working' to help the goals of the Italians in that TO.

The naval units are based in the correct TO (Indian) for making their moves into the Red Sea. The decision makers in the Indian TO would have to have as one of their 'tasks' control of the Red Sea, in support of the Med TO.

Other cases that come up where there will need to be coordination between TOs is the creation and maintenance of pipelines. But all these coordination problems are handled at the higher/global level by the Admiralty. They pass tasks/priorities down to the decision makers at the TO level.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Froonp)
Post #: 107
RE: MWIF AI Opponent Where, Who, and What - 9/28/2009 11:03:46 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline
Patrice,

In reply to a couple of the other points you raised:

1 - Yes all of Italy would be in the Med TO, and also all of Greece and Yugoslavia.

2 - I would prefer to keep all the Southern Pacific as a single TO. Breaking it into AOs along the lines you gave would be good to do.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 108
RE: MWIF AI Opponent Where, Who, and What - 9/28/2009 11:08:40 PM   
Froonp


Posts: 7995
Joined: 10/21/2003
From: Marseilles, France
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: Froonp

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets
I believe the Red Sea should be part of the Indian TO. This mainly has to do with naval units reaching the sea area. Given that Suez and Gibraltar act as valves on accessing the Mediterranean, sea areas outside of those blockage points should be separate.

This is not a reason.
If the Med is closed, then the Cape St Vincent is the nearest place from the Med from where campaign in the Med. Same for the Red Sea for the eastern approach.

Being involved in a campaign in Egypt in my current Vassal game, I have the Italians flying every turn in the Red Sea from near Cairo to help cutting the supply of the last British presence in Egypt, helped in that by German Raiders sailing from ports in Mozambique & Timor into the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. If the Red Sea is not in the Mediterranean TO, how is the AIO going to think about assigning Italians planes from the Med TO to the Red Sea to cut supply to the British Italy is fighting in Egypt ?


There are always going to be 'issues' at the borders of the TOs. Singapore comes to mind.

In your example, the Italian air units are based in the Med. That they are flying outside their TO is no big deal. They are assigned to the Med TO and are 'working' to help the goals of the Italians in that TO.

The naval units are based in the correct TO (Indian) for making their moves into the Red Sea. The decision makers in the Indian TO would have to have as one of their 'tasks' control of the Red Sea, in support of the Med TO.

Other cases that come up where there will need to be coordination between TOs is the creation and maintenance of pipelines. But all these coordination problems are handled at the higher/global level by the Admiralty. They pass tasks/priorities down to the decision makers at the TO level.

OK if the AIO can deal with that this is fine.

What I meant is that no armed forces will go in the REd Sea, except in support of the Egypt Theather, and same for the Cape St Vincent in regards to Gibraltar, so why put them in another TO ?

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 109
RE: AI (general): location v. destruction of enemy - 9/28/2009 11:11:33 PM   
peskpesk


Posts: 2347
Joined: 7/17/2003
From: Stockholm, Sweden
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

MWIF AI Opponent Where, Who, and What

I have always understood that these are the 3 big questions for the AI Opponent (AIO): where on the map should the AIO place its units and what should those units do once they get there. I have worked out detailed answers for who and what, by defining an organizational structure for decision making and compiling a detailed list of tasks for each decision makers. In working with Peter on the setups for both the minor countries and the major powers, and on the advice of Ian concerning the value of an abstract topology of the map, I have put some more thought into the question of ‘Where’.

All 3 questions are interrelated since the definition of the size of the area dictates the size of the military force and also what the force is capable of achieving. For this document I have started with the where, though I could just as easily have started with either of the other two questions.

I. Where: Geographical Breakdown of the World Map

Here is what I propose for the geographical breakdown of the World Map, which consists of 70,200 hexes, 83 sea areas, 252 countries, and ~5100 coastal hexes.

Theaters of Operations (TO)
• Asia: Urals to Pacific Ocean, Mongolia, China.
• Europe: Northern Europe to the Urals, North Atlantic, eastern North America.
• Mediterranean: Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, all countries that border same (except the USSR).
• South Atlantic: South Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, all countries that border same (e.g., western Africa, and eastern South and Central America).
• Indian: Indian Ocean, Red Sea, Southern Ocean, all countries that border same (e.g., eastern Africa, western Australia).
• Northeast Pacific: Hawaii to Alaska and the North American west coast.
• South Pacific: eastern Australia to western South America.
• Western Pacific: Kamchatka to Singapore to the Marshals.

Areas of Operations (AO)
Within each TO are Areas of Operations (AO), which come in 3 types:
1. All sea (wet)
2. All land (dry)
3. Coastal hexes (damp)

Here is my first pass on AOs for each TO.
• Asia: central USSR, Siberia/Mongolia, China inland, USSR Pacific coast.
• Europe: eastern North America (inland and coast), North Atlantic Ocean, Murmansk pipeline, European invasions (Bay of Biscay, North Sea, Baltic Sea, and coastal hexes for same), western Europe, Scandinavia, eastern Europe (up to the Urals).
• Mediterranean: Western Med, Italian Coast, Eastern Med, Black Sea, coastal hexes for each of those 4 sea areas.
• South Atlantic: eastern Central/South America, South Atlantic, western Africa.
• Indian: Red Sea, Indian Ocean, Southern Ocean, eastern Africa, Middle East (excluding countries with a Mediterranean coastline), India, western side of Southeast Asia, western side of Australia.
• Northeast Pacific: north eastern Pacific Ocean, western North America, Alaska, Hawaii,
• South Pacific: southern Pacific Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, islands in the South Pacific, western Central and South America.
• Western Pacific: Western Pacific (including various seas from Singapore to Rabaul), Chinese coast, eastern side of Southeast Asia, French Indochina, Japan, Borneo, New Guinea, Marshals, and other island groups in that area of the Pacific Ocean.

Sea Area Groups and Land Regions
AOs are broken down farther, with Wet AOs composed of Sea Area Groups (SAG), Damp AOs composed of coastal hexes (Regions), and Dry AOs composed of all land hexes (Regions). A dry AO is defined by one or more countries, or regions within a country. A damp AO is defined by the sea area it abuts and the country owning the coastal hexes.

For example, the West Med AO consists of these Regions:
• Western Med,
• Spanish-West Med coastline,
• Gibraltar,
• Algeria-West Med coastline,
• Libya-West Med coastline,
• Tunisia-West Med coastline,
• Malta,
• Sardinia/Corsica-West Med coastline,
• French-West Med coastline,
• Italy-West Med coastline.

The intent here is to have an exhaustive and mutually exclusive definition of TOs, AOs, SAGs and Regions.


Steve how will the seam/joint between different TO/AO be handled?
There are many examples that needs to be handled ex If I under stand your proposal Europe will be split between Europe and Mediterranean TO. Lets say the Germany plans to attack Spain, but the German Force in France is in the Europe TO and Spain is in the Mediterranean TO. So the calculations of the sides force strength in the Mediterranean TO should to some cases take into consideration forces in a other TO, maybe the bordering TOs closest AO? In this case western Europe.

< Message edited by peskpesk -- 9/28/2009 11:17:59 PM >


_____________________________

"'Malta - The Thorn in Rommel's Side"

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 110
RE: MWIF AI Opponent Where, Who, and What - 9/28/2009 11:13:55 PM   
Froonp


Posts: 7995
Joined: 10/21/2003
From: Marseilles, France
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Patrice,

In reply to a couple of the other points you raised:

1 - Yes all of Italy would be in the Med TO, and also all of Greece and Yugoslavia.

2 - I would prefer to keep all the Southern Pacific as a single TO. Breaking it into AOs along the lines you gave would be good to do.

1 - I agree for Greece, but not for Yugoslavia.

Yugoslavia is more in the Europe TO, in the Balkans AO. This is an area that is more in relation with the war in Europe rather than in the war in the Med. Its only relation with the war in the Med, is that it is the stagging areas of the forces that will attack Greece, but except this, they are not in relation with the war in the Med. Even as an allied come back in Europe from the Med, it is the worst of the places to do that come back. Little ports, little rails, poor terrain. Coming back from the Med into Europe through Yugoslavia is the worst error the Med AIO can do to help its Europe mate.

2 - I think that this is OK. The area is just very large, which will be a pain to have it covered by cruisers when raiders will come by. Having it in 2 separate areas would have been better, because the east part of it will only be threatened when there is a raider in the area while the west part of it will be threatenened all the time the Japanese are in Truk & the Marshalls.

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 111
RE: AI (general): location v. destruction of enemy - 9/29/2009 12:58:58 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: peskpesk

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

MWIF AI Opponent Where, Who, and What

I have always understood that these are the 3 big questions for the AI Opponent (AIO): where on the map should the AIO place its units and what should those units do once they get there. I have worked out detailed answers for who and what, by defining an organizational structure for decision making and compiling a detailed list of tasks for each decision makers. In working with Peter on the setups for both the minor countries and the major powers, and on the advice of Ian concerning the value of an abstract topology of the map, I have put some more thought into the question of ‘Where’.

All 3 questions are interrelated since the definition of the size of the area dictates the size of the military force and also what the force is capable of achieving. For this document I have started with the where, though I could just as easily have started with either of the other two questions.

I. Where: Geographical Breakdown of the World Map

Here is what I propose for the geographical breakdown of the World Map, which consists of 70,200 hexes, 83 sea areas, 252 countries, and ~5100 coastal hexes.

Theaters of Operations (TO)
• Asia: Urals to Pacific Ocean, Mongolia, China.
• Europe: Northern Europe to the Urals, North Atlantic, eastern North America.
• Mediterranean: Mediterranean Sea, Black Sea, all countries that border same (except the USSR).
• South Atlantic: South Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, all countries that border same (e.g., western Africa, and eastern South and Central America).
• Indian: Indian Ocean, Red Sea, Southern Ocean, all countries that border same (e.g., eastern Africa, western Australia).
• Northeast Pacific: Hawaii to Alaska and the North American west coast.
• South Pacific: eastern Australia to western South America.
• Western Pacific: Kamchatka to Singapore to the Marshals.

Areas of Operations (AO)
Within each TO are Areas of Operations (AO), which come in 3 types:
1. All sea (wet)
2. All land (dry)
3. Coastal hexes (damp)

Here is my first pass on AOs for each TO.
• Asia: central USSR, Siberia/Mongolia, China inland, USSR Pacific coast.
• Europe: eastern North America (inland and coast), North Atlantic Ocean, Murmansk pipeline, European invasions (Bay of Biscay, North Sea, Baltic Sea, and coastal hexes for same), western Europe, Scandinavia, eastern Europe (up to the Urals).
• Mediterranean: Western Med, Italian Coast, Eastern Med, Black Sea, coastal hexes for each of those 4 sea areas.
• South Atlantic: eastern Central/South America, South Atlantic, western Africa.
• Indian: Red Sea, Indian Ocean, Southern Ocean, eastern Africa, Middle East (excluding countries with a Mediterranean coastline), India, western side of Southeast Asia, western side of Australia.
• Northeast Pacific: north eastern Pacific Ocean, western North America, Alaska, Hawaii,
• South Pacific: southern Pacific Ocean, eastern Australia, New Zealand, islands in the South Pacific, western Central and South America.
• Western Pacific: Western Pacific (including various seas from Singapore to Rabaul), Chinese coast, eastern side of Southeast Asia, French Indochina, Japan, Borneo, New Guinea, Marshals, and other island groups in that area of the Pacific Ocean.

Sea Area Groups and Land Regions
AOs are broken down farther, with Wet AOs composed of Sea Area Groups (SAG), Damp AOs composed of coastal hexes (Regions), and Dry AOs composed of all land hexes (Regions). A dry AO is defined by one or more countries, or regions within a country. A damp AO is defined by the sea area it abuts and the country owning the coastal hexes.

For example, the West Med AO consists of these Regions:
• Western Med,
• Spanish-West Med coastline,
• Gibraltar,
• Algeria-West Med coastline,
• Libya-West Med coastline,
• Tunisia-West Med coastline,
• Malta,
• Sardinia/Corsica-West Med coastline,
• French-West Med coastline,
• Italy-West Med coastline.

The intent here is to have an exhaustive and mutually exclusive definition of TOs, AOs, SAGs and Regions.


Steve how will the seam/joint between different TO/AO be handled?
There are many examples that needs to be handled ex If I under stand your proposal Europe will be split between Europe and Mediterranean TO. Lets say the Germany plans to attack Spain, but the German Force in France is in the Europe TO and Spain is in the Mediterranean TO. So the calculations of the sides force strength in the Mediterranean TO should to some cases take into consideration forces in a other TO, maybe the bordering TOs closest AO? In this case western Europe.

Yes.

This problem also comes up with adjacent AOs, SAGs, and Regions. While a group of units is located within one 'domain', it often is concerned with what is happening in adjacent domains.

Italy will be a region (possibly more than 1) but it will be concerned with southern France at the beginning of the war. The units placed in Italy could be offensive or defensive, but either way their disposition needs to be in regard to their neighbors. Hopefully these are all resolved by the decision maker one level up in the chain of command.

So, for Spain or France, both of which lie on the boundary of two TOs, the General Staff will need to assess the threat of an invasion (from the sea, across a border, or from the air) and relay that information to the decision makers within each TO. To be more specific, the European TO's Field Marshal and Air Marshal would gather information on the enemy capability of launching a cross-border invasion into Spain from France. That would be passed to the General Staff which would 'tell' the Med TO's Field Marshal and Air Marshal about the threat.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to peskpesk)
Post #: 112
RE: MWIF AI Opponent Where, Who, and What - 9/29/2009 1:07:33 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Froonp

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Patrice,

In reply to a couple of the other points you raised:

1 - Yes all of Italy would be in the Med TO, and also all of Greece and Yugoslavia.

2 - I would prefer to keep all the Southern Pacific as a single TO. Breaking it into AOs along the lines you gave would be good to do.

1 - I agree for Greece, but not for Yugoslavia.

Yugoslavia is more in the Europe TO, in the Balkans AO. This is an area that is more in relation with the war in Europe rather than in the war in the Med. Its only relation with the war in the Med, is that it is the stagging areas of the forces that will attack Greece, but except this, they are not in relation with the war in the Med. Even as an allied come back in Europe from the Med, it is the worst of the places to do that come back. Little ports, little rails, poor terrain. Coming back from the Med into Europe through Yugoslavia is the worst error the Med AIO can do to help its Europe mate.

2 - I think that this is OK. The area is just very large, which will be a pain to have it covered by cruisers when raiders will come by. Having it in 2 separate areas would have been better, because the east part of it will only be threatened when there is a raider in the area while the west part of it will be threatenened all the time the Japanese are in Truk & the Marshalls.

#2 - All of the TO's will have some 'backwater' areas where nothing much happens. In some cases those areas may come under threat and become more 'active'.

#1 - I would prefer the geographic breakdown to be consistent geographically and not depend on "what is likely to happen". Yes, Yugoslavia's connection to the Med is weaker than its connection to central Europe. But the fact is has a coastline means that it is capable of hosting naval forces in the Med and that differentiates it from Hungary and Austria. The units within Yugoslavia will be more similar to those in Greece than those in Hungary. Now the problems the Region Yugoslavia will face won't match Greece's, but that can be said when comparing many adjacent regions within an AO, (or AOs within a TO).

_____________________________

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Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Froonp)
Post #: 113
RE: MWIF AI Opponent Where, Who, and What - 9/29/2009 2:25:22 PM   
Incy

 

Posts: 336
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You might want to consider using overlapping TA/AO/Regions. Not just a single hexrow or two, but let the areas stretch out to hexes that naturally affects them tactically (i.e 1 or possibly 2 landmoves into neighbouring area). Possibly with 'soft' limits, i.e. some hexes are not fully/100% considered part of areas, but are given a lesser weight. 

This means units could be part of calculations for several areas. Let any applicable calculations be done, and then priority (i.e. which commander decides) can be selected according to a combination of strategic and tactical needs (i.e. you can consider induvidual score within each TA/AO/Region, but you'll also consider which TA/AO/Region is currently the most important strategically, and let that TA/AO/Regions control the forces to a larger extent.

This can also be a good way of arranging cooperations between commands. If helping the neighbouring command is a priority, just
a) move forces into the shared zone and voila command gets switched automagically
b) strategically move inte neighbouring command

btw, aircraft, particularily those with long range, will have to receive special attention as they will project their effect across regions (and can more easily be moved between regions)


(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 114
RE: MWIF AI Opponent Where, Who, and What - 9/29/2009 4:07:05 PM   
composer99


Posts: 2923
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I think that the use of combat values (CVs) will allow the higher-level decision makers to authorize/command the re-allocation of forces from one TO/AO/SAG/Region to another without any blending of these entities.

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(in reply to Incy)
Post #: 115
RE: MWIF AI Opponent Where, Who, and What - 9/29/2009 5:59:27 PM   
brian brian

 

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I read most of that but have always wondered this about the AI command ... how will it handle multiple-impulse or multi-turn operations without constantly evaluating threat assessments resulting in a change that negates activities previously performed? For example consider an end-around amphibious invasion such as Anzio. First you have to control the seas before sending out fragile landing craft, so a naval impulse is selected to deploy adequate naval assets. Then the Grand Strategist directs the Commander-in-Chief to call an air impulse because the overall strategic priority is a bombing campaign over Germany and several FTRs just departed Germany, rebasing towards the Italian coast, so the bombers suddenly have much easier targets in front of them. Meanwhile the German forces on the ground see the AMPHs offshore and reinforce the beaches by reorganizing railed-in reinforcements....which could have been avoided by just landing on the second impulse and bombing Germany later in the turn.

Similarly, human players have a hard time maintaining the discipline to take naval and land impulses instead of two Combined impulses when they get too focused on a given theater just because a seemingly juicy target is in front of them.

(in reply to composer99)
Post #: 116
RE: MWIF AI Opponent Where, Who, and What - 9/29/2009 6:42:43 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
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From: Honolulu, Hawaii
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Incy

You might want to consider using overlapping TA/AO/Regions. Not just a single hexrow or two, but let the areas stretch out to hexes that naturally affects them tactically (i.e 1 or possibly 2 landmoves into neighbouring area). Possibly with 'soft' limits, i.e. some hexes are not fully/100% considered part of areas, but are given a lesser weight.

This means units could be part of calculations for several areas. Let any applicable calculations be done, and then priority (i.e. which commander decides) can be selected according to a combination of strategic and tactical needs (i.e. you can consider induvidual score within each TA/AO/Region, but you'll also consider which TA/AO/Region is currently the most important strategically, and let that TA/AO/Regions control the forces to a larger extent.

This can also be a good way of arranging cooperations between commands. If helping the neighbouring command is a priority, just
a) move forces into the shared zone and voila command gets switched automagically
b) strategically move inte neighbouring command

btw, aircraft, particularily those with long range, will have to receive special attention as they will project their effect across regions (and can more easily be moved between regions)



With very great reluctance I have accepted that some regions might have to have 1 or 2 hexes of overlap. The common case is when a national border includes a coastal hex. That hex will be both part of the region that borders another country and the coastal region for the adjacent sea area. I do not want any more overlap than that. If a decision requires coordinating 2 regions, then that decision is made at a higher level (AO). Likewise for decisions that span AOs or even TOs.

I have intentionally not delegated air units to Land Regions or SAGs. Indeed, even AOs do not have dedicated air units. Instead, decisions on how to use air resources are made at the TO level under the control of a Rear Admiral (naval), Field Marshal (land), and Air Marshal (strategic bombing). The Air Marshal makes all tactical decisions, which means it decides on arranging units for combat, which units to destroy/abort, where aborted units return to base, and whether to stay/abort at the end of each round. I do not want the Field Marshal (for example) making those decisions with his narrow persepctive on how to win the land war. And I certainly do not want those decisions in the hands of army group commanders or generals.

Basically, because the use of air units can be applied to all branches of service, it needs to be under the control of the air force decision makers. However, the Air Marshal is tasked with allocating the air units in his TO to the Rear Admiral and Field Marshal for use as they see fit, and reserving some units for himself to use in strategic bombing.

I believe this model of the command structure closely models the historical use of air power. Therein lies my fundamental philosophy for the AIO decision making: model what was done in real life; those guys evolved systems that worked, and thinking I can come up with something more clever is hubris.

===

I am thinking that splitting the Europe TO into two parts is a better design. There would be a North Atlantic TO and a European TO. The latter would include all the sea areas that are adjacent to Europe (including Cape St. Vincent but excluding the Faeros Gap). This would relieve the Euqopean Field Marshal from worrying about units in the US and let the North Atlantic Rear Admiral focus on protecting convoys without concerning himself with invasions of Europe. Corodination between the European and the Med TOs should be simplified too.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Incy)
Post #: 117
RE: MWIF AI Opponent Where, Who, and What - 9/29/2009 6:53:20 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: brian brian

I read most of that but have always wondered this about the AI command ... how will it handle multiple-impulse or multi-turn operations without constantly evaluating threat assessments resulting in a change that negates activities previously performed? For example consider an end-around amphibious invasion such as Anzio. First you have to control the seas before sending out fragile landing craft, so a naval impulse is selected to deploy adequate naval assets. Then the Grand Strategist directs the Commander-in-Chief to call an air impulse because the overall strategic priority is a bombing campaign over Germany and several FTRs just departed Germany, rebasing towards the Italian coast, so the bombers suddenly have much easier targets in front of them. Meanwhile the German forces on the ground see the AMPHs offshore and reinforce the beaches by reorganizing railed-in reinforcements....which could have been avoided by just landing on the second impulse and bombing Germany later in the turn.

Similarly, human players have a hard time maintaining the discipline to take naval and land impulses instead of two Combined impulses when they get too focused on a given theater just because a seemingly juicy target is in front of them.

Thsi is resolved by the Joint Chiefs, see below. #1 after performing #2. All of #1 for the turn are decided at the beginning of the turn, based on a somewhat pessimistic assessment from #2. You're asking about the tradeoff between #8 and #12. As you noted #12 requires mulitple impulses so those have to be allotted if the decision to invade is made. There could be multiple impulses required for a successful strategic bombing turn too. Or for a successful land campaign, and so on.

The really tricky bit here is when the opponent does something unexpectedly brilliant (or has exceptionally good luck) or foolish (or has exceptionally bad luck). The assessments made at the beginning of the turn may have to be reevaluated. Well, the AIO will always reevaluate them, so what I really mean here is that if the situation changes dramatically, then the decision to change a plan in mid-execution might be best. As I said, it's tricky.

1: JCS.DecActionChoice;

2: JCS.EstImpulsesleft;

3: JCS.DecReinforcements;

4: JCS.DecReserves;

5: JCS.DecRailMoves;

6: JCS.DecSupplyUnits;

7: JCS.DecReplacements;

8: JCS.DecStrategicBombing;

9: JCS.DecFieldMarshals;

10: JCS.DecAttackOpportunities;

11: JCS.AllocateLimitedActivites;

12: JCS.DecCoordInvasionsPara;

13: JCS.DecOffensiveChit;


_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to brian brian)
Post #: 118
RE: MWIF AI Opponent Where, Who, and What - 9/29/2009 9:36:00 PM   
Ullern


Posts: 1837
Joined: 5/28/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Thsi is resolved by the Joint Chiefs, see below. #1 after performing #2. All of #1 for the turn are decided at the beginning of the turn, based on a somewhat pessimistic assessment from #2. You're asking about the tradeoff between #8 and #12. As you noted #12 requires mulitple impulses so those have to be allotted if the decision to invade is made. There could be multiple impulses required for a successful strategic bombing turn too. Or for a successful land campaign, and so on.

The really tricky bit here is when the opponent does something unexpectedly brilliant (or has exceptionally good luck) or foolish (or has exceptionally bad luck). The assessments made at the beginning of the turn may have to be reevaluated. Well, the AIO will always reevaluate them, so what I really mean here is that if the situation changes dramatically, then the decision to change a plan in mid-execution might be best. As I said, it's tricky.




Yes the tricky bit here is that you do want the AI to be able to reassess if changes are big enough. But it's really important not to reassess often. If the AI reassess grand strategy every impulse the play will be incoherent at best and more likely a complete mess.

Say the German Grand Strategist (or the appropriate commander) decided to challenge the CW for control over Bay of Biscay. The fact that CW sends in lots of reinforcements to defend the area should be an expected counter move and must not cause the choice to be reassessed. But if the German Fleet Admiral had to abort the Bay of Biscay mid impulse because all FTR cover had been aborted in combat, then the choice obviously must be reassessed before next German impulse since the goal can no longer be archived this turn.

Only when the strategic goal succeeds or fails early in the turn should the strategy be reassessed.


< Message edited by ullern -- 9/29/2009 9:38:14 PM >

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 119
RE: MWIF AI Opponent Where, Who, and What - 9/29/2009 10:33:31 PM   
Ullern


Posts: 1837
Joined: 5/28/2006
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Incy

You might want to consider using overlapping TA/AO/Regions. Not just a single hexrow or two, but let the areas stretch out to hexes that naturally affects them tactically (i.e 1 or possibly 2 landmoves into neighbouring area). Possibly with 'soft' limits, i.e. some hexes are not fully/100% considered part of areas, but are given a lesser weight. 

This means units could be part of calculations for several areas. Let any applicable calculations be done, and then priority (i.e. which commander decides) can be selected according to a combination of strategic and tactical needs (i.e. you can consider induvidual score within each TA/AO/Region, but you'll also consider which TA/AO/Region is currently the most important strategically, and let that TA/AO/Regions control the forces to a larger extent.

This can also be a good way of arranging cooperations between commands. If helping the neighbouring command is a priority, just
a) move forces into the shared zone and voila command gets switched automagically
b) strategically move inte neighbouring command

btw, aircraft, particularily those with long range, will have to receive special attention as they will project their effect across regions (and can more easily be moved between regions)




I don't see what you get for allowing overlapping regions.

Say there is a single stacked French corps defending Nice. When the German Field Marshall of the Med considers attacking into France he has to consider upsides like: What if taking Nice would make German units get through the French lines and force France to divert forces from the north? But to answer this question the Field Marshal needs to understand how all of France is defended. For example: Is there a strategic reserve in Lyon that isn't in the front lines anyway and could plug the hole? (I had that in our current game.) Or have the French player commited corps to defend the southern France from invasion? Such questions needs to be answered, and only when you have the answer can the Field Marshal evaluate what he would achieve with a successful attack.

What the example illustrates I believe to be the most important problem with coordination: How much you will gain by moving and/or attacking cross TO/AO/region. And as the example illustrate you will likely need a grasp of not just the single region next to you, but likely the whole AO next to you to get the gain properly evaluated. And so I think that to allow an overlap numbered in hexes between AO/regions could open up for simplified short cut evaluations that wouldn't be good enough at all.



< Message edited by ullern -- 9/29/2009 10:35:59 PM >

(in reply to Incy)
Post #: 120
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