Cuttlefish
Posts: 2454
Joined: 1/24/2007
From: Oregon, USA
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Be audacious and cunning in your plans, firm and persevering in their execution, and determined to find a glorious end.
- Clausewitz: Principles of War, 1812
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10/1/1942 – 10/3/1942
Lots of discussion and lots to think about. Thanks to everyone for all of the comments and advice. And thanks as well for watching me become suspicious about what Q-Ball was up to and not saying a word. I know that isn't always easy to do.
Koepang, to my disappointment, fell to the first assault on 3 October. Not to my surprise, though; he landed a LOT of troops. The surviving troops are hiking through the jungle towards Dili, probably a hopeless trek. Fortunately I had the Dash Forward Sentai at Manado and they evacuated elements of important units before the battle. I guess I might have to rename the transport group the Dash Backward Sentai.
Q-Ball’s forces also occupied most of Flores and a couple of other small bases in the area. His total opposition here was one naval guard unit.
My forces have been mostly quiet. On 2 October a Betty attack was launched at Koepang from Ambon, targeting British battleships there. The escorting Zeros brushed aside the Wildcats on CAP but to my surprise the Bettys dropped bombs instead of launching torpedoes. Investigating later I found that the aviation HQ was set in error – they were drawing 15 torpedoes, which wasn’t nearly enough to equip all of the planes. Aargh! It’s one thing to be beaten by the cunning plan of an excellent opponent, but another to make stupid mistakes like that.
Kido Butai, after stopping to refuel, is now around Babeldoab. Several SCTFs are also converging on the area. Ground troops and aviation support are being hurried to the bases surrounding the area as fast as I can load them and I am moving every air group that isn’t essential for defense elsewhere towards the region as well.
After reading what everyone has posted and doing much pondering on my own, here are a few early conclusions:
- Whether or not I try to take back the bases is moot unless I can regain control of the sea and air in the region. This then is the first order of business. I will give it a try, because I think I have a couple of advantages. First is the fact that the IJN is almost completely intact and might still be able to win the day at this point. My supply lines are shorter and one thing I am sure of about this op for the Allies is that it has to be consuming a whole lot of fuel. Second is the fact that so far, with the exception of Burma, he hasn’t really been able to do much against my LBA. And at Burma there are lots of large Allied airfields in an arc around my forward bases. Here that situation is reversed.
- I can bring in three or four divisions in a counter-attack, more if I’m willing to pull some units out of China or Manchukuo. I have almost 10,000 political points in the bank. If I can isolate his troops I should be able to mop up his invading forces one base at a time. This, of course, is only likely to happen if his carriers are soundly defeated and his surface forces put to rout. If these conditions aren’t achieved then I will use the divisions to reinforce key points and as a reserve.
- An alternate strategy, risky but maybe worth thinking about, would be to invade Port Hedland and Exmouth. That would really give him fits. It may be a fantasy but if conditions are right and it worked it would completely stall his advance in the DEI for a long while. Even without invasions his supply line is still a worthy target.
- Another alternate strategy, containment, isn’t really an option at the moment. If I lose the air and sea battles around Timor it becomes the fallback position, but it isn’t a good position. It’s a way to lose slowly, or maybe even not so slowly.
- I can’t take my eye off the rest of the map, either. His attack at Wake may have been a diversion but I don’t doubt that he would have invaded if things had gone better. At least, I don’t think he put troops on those ships just so I’d see casualties when I sank them. Fortunately things seem stable in Burma right now and the Pacific is about as well defended as I can make it without the carriers present.
Any big air and sea clashes are still several turns off. He’s expecting to get hit and must be counting on holding his gains even if he loses, which is why he landed in division strength even at small, undefended bases. His plan has been a good one but he is gambling a lot on success. If he wins the war is shortened by a year or more. If he loses it may be a while before he can attack me again.
Whatever happens, this is going to be fun.
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