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RE: The butcher's bill - 8/27/2010 4:12:21 AM   
CapAndGown


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JonReb

Very exciting. I think it was a good attack plan on your part. How many pilots did you lose? I hope you have a reserve of pilots that aren't rookies to refill your air groups, those are some heavy air losses.


117 KIA, 107 WIA. I imagine most of the WIA will eventually return. Since these were mostly navy pilots (I believe) I am in good shape. The Army has been taking the brunt of the casualties and so has fewer reserves than the navy. Last I checked, the navy had about 600 pilots in the general reserve and another 100 in TRACOM.

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RE: Escorts as Kamikazes - 8/27/2010 4:19:13 AM   
PaxMondo


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Wow!! Very impressive.  All those fighters, the CV's have to be nearby.  Be careful! 

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RE: Escorts as Kamikazes - 8/27/2010 8:42:55 AM   
veji1

 

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good move, Ideally you would want to follow up by a SCTF strike at Wotje covered by LBA LRCAP.... Can you flood the area with subs ? there might be easy pickings around (BBs...).

Now the priority is avoiding the KB's destruction, you might want to retreat to a safe base to replenish you Air groups, Would Truk or Palau do the trick ?


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RE: Escorts as Kamikazes - 8/27/2010 11:32:14 AM   
krupp_88mm


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maybe put some subs where KB used to be in case he runs to that area, give him a nasty surprise

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RE: Escorts as Kamikazes - 8/27/2010 11:37:53 AM   
FatR

 

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This is a massive tactical success for Japanese. And considering that your opponent prepared his offensive poorly and doesn't have enough men to overwhelm your island defenses while KB is our of the fight, this also might be a strategic win. Will you replenish KB planes at Truk?

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RE: Escorts as Kamikazes - 8/27/2010 12:34:38 PM   
veji1

 

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have you sent land troops to Wotje and Maloelap to make sure he doesn't take them ?

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RE: The butcher's bill - 8/27/2010 4:03:58 PM   
Q-Ball


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Nice job! You used the only IJN advantage at this point in CV actions: Superior Range.

Getting APAs is important; the Allies have unlimited AKs, but those APAs are like gold.

This also shows the hazards of parking ships for extended periods in enemy territory

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RE: The butcher's bill - 8/28/2010 12:03:30 AM   
Ketza


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Well done!

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RE: The butcher's bill - 8/28/2010 12:44:21 PM   
bklooste

 

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I also think his Cvs will go after  you not sure any significant surface action is viable as he will have BB escorts and sink anything durring the day. 

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RE: The butcher's bill - 8/28/2010 9:38:40 PM   
CapAndGown


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I have sent off the turn to my opponent.

My biggest concern is that the KB is low on gas. I was just about to refuel when I opted instead to strike the allies at Wotje. So now a few of our ships are down to fumes. Because of this, I could not send in a surface force, although that would have been interesting. I also could not retreat at full speed. What I have done is ordered the KB north at cruising speed where it will meet up with a replenishment TF just west of Wake. For the allies to catch me they will need to move at full speed and head in the correct direction. Hopefully, if they do charge, they charge more west than north.

Meanwhile, everyone else is stood down this turn. I want to see what develops next turn and give my fly boys a much needed rest. Average fatigue for the fighter units in the Marshalls is in the 40s!

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RE: The butcher's bill - 8/29/2010 12:25:34 AM   
PaxMondo


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C&G,

Can't begin to express how impressive this is right now.  Solid strategy, but followed up with just bloody excellent tactics. 

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RE: The butcher's bill - 8/30/2010 5:36:57 AM   
krupp_88mm


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sorry to be a bother but HOW ABOUT AN UPDATES

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RE: The butcher's bill - 8/30/2010 3:45:00 PM   
FatR

 

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I'd say, that while cap_n_gown strategy (and industry management) is very solid, the greatest ingredient for his defensive success so far is mistakes of his opponent. So far, Allies seem to be consistently going against the least strategically important portions of Japanese defensive perimeter available (except for air war in Burma, which was not followed by a ground offensive). As cap_n_gown is concentrating on protecting the Empire's vitals, this gave Allies a bunch of relatively bloodless conquests in Southern Pacific so far, but did not make them any closer to winning the war. And the invasion of Marshalls in the current form was not the best idea. It is hard to assault atolls that penaltize you for deploying more than 6k of troops unless you have uncontested mastery of sea and air, and can pound on the garrizon. Southern Gilberts probably were an easier target. Plus, what happened is what you get for constantly keeping your TFs in one hex where the enemy sees them.

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RE: The butcher's bill - 8/30/2010 4:25:11 PM   
janh

 

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Probably true, this victory wouldn't have been possible without either luck, and the lack of initiative of his opponent.  This again shows that exerting the initiative and forcing your opponent to react to you can be a huge force multiplier.  Had he moved his CV's in a forward position to intercept or deter the KB that was to be expected to show up, he might have started the inevitable process of wearing down the Empire.  Nonetheless, this is a very exciting game.

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RE: The butcher's bill - 8/30/2010 10:40:49 PM   
CapAndGown


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Sept. 13, 1943

Two important developments this turn. First, the KB makes good on its retirement. Second, Maleolap was captured.

The SS Paddle intercepted the KB before it could make good its retirement, but accomplished nothing other than to be depth charged, one hit being listed at severe. Other than that, our retirement to the north was successful and most ships of the KB were able to refuel. One TF still needs some fuel but we are now well out of any danger.

The allies conducted shock attacks of both Maleolap and Wotje. Suprisingly, Wotje, which is less well defended held out, though the forts are now down to 0, but Maleolap fell, giving the allies a bridgehead in the Marshalls.

The allies also bombarded Milli and Ailinglaplap:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Mili at 136,121 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

Allied Ships
CA Baltimore
CA Wichita
CA Minneapolis
CA Chester
CA Northampton

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Mili at 136,121 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

Allied Ships
CA New Orleans
CA Chicago, Shell hits 6
CA Louisville, Shell hits 6
CA Portland, Shell hits 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Ailinglaplap at 133,117

Allied Ships
CA Astoria
CA Salt Lake City
CA Pensacola
CA Indianapolis

So now I have to make plans for the future.

I am in a quandary as to what to do next. At least one thing I know I want to do is reinforce Truk with a division currently at Rabaul. I am also accumulating PPs to buy another division out of the Home Islands to further increase my garrison of the Marianas. I figure after the Marshalls are captured or neutralized, the allies will go after Kusaie and Ponape. I am also expecting an attack on Wake. From there the allies are likely to want to keep heading west. I would guess that they would prefer to bypass the Solomons, seeing that it is very strongly held, and instead aim first for Truk and then the Marianas. I wish to make Truk impregnable, at least as far as any landing is concerned (although keeping the airfield open will likely be difficult). I would prefer that they head straight to the Mariana's. It is my hope that the Mariana's can be the base for a massive defense by LBA. The Marshalls were less than ideal in this regard because the bases were limited in size and capability. (Also, I did not plan on the need for sacrificial ships to draw off allied CV AC. If I had had in place sacrificial ships to draw off allied CV AC when the KB struck, the CAP we faced would have been much less as those fighters were diverted from CAP duties to escorting a strike.)

These are my longer term plans. It is in the intermediate term where I am somewhat puzzled as to how to proceed. The allies now have a bridgehead in the Marshalls. I would expect that in addition to Maleolap, they should be able to capture Wotje within a few days. This will leave me with three size 4 bases: Milli, Ailinglaplap, and Roi-Namur; and some size 1 bases: Kwajalein and Jailut. I would guess that the allies may have enough troops already embarked and in position to attack Ailinglaplap. But I have to wonder how much longer his CVs can stick around. His fleet must be burning up prodigious amounts of fuel. A number of his ships also need to rearm. To do that where he is at would require AKEs/AEs, some port service units to disembark on Maleolap, and some fuel to deposit on Maleolap so that the "replenish from port" button can be used. I wonder if he has all the necessary prerequisites in place to get Maleolap up and running as a fleet base right away? Even if he does, I can't see the CVs sticking around that much longer.

Meanwhile, the KB really does need to restock. I would also like to fix up some of the accumulated sys and engine damage. I was thinking about instead using the KB to hunt down his fleet train, which I believe he has between PH and the Marshalls, but I have decided the need to restock on planes is more pressing.

So now I am in a quandry. The KB is 4-5 days sailing time from the Home Islands. I need to get back to the Home Islands since several of my squadrons are going to require downgrading from more advanced planes, of which I have few, to more plentiful current models, and to do that, we need a size 7 airfield. Other than Rabaul, there are no other size 7 airfields until you get to the DEI/Philipines. To get back to the Marshalls area would take 6-7 days. Also, it seems to me if we are going to go back to the Home Islands, we should probably use that time to fix up some of the accumulated damage. Thus, I believe we should not count on the KB going into battle again for a while.

So what to do in the meantime about the Marshalls? I don't really care that much about these Islands, but I would like to take advantage of opportunities to slow the allies down, as long as it does not cost me a whole lot.

As to the above comments, especially by FatR, I would agree. I have not shown any above average strategic thinking here. I have benefited by my opponent choosing to take the route he has. On his behalf, however, I would argue that in starting with Somoa/Fiji, it was probably his intention to reopen his supply lines to Australia. And in going for the Marshalls rather than the Gilberts, he was probably influenced by the fact that they are closer to Pearl Harbor and are a more direct route into the vitals of the empire than the Gilberts. Also, we can be sure that he was unable to foresee just what a sever penalty there was for overstacking on such little atolls. Tactically, however, I believe my opponent needs to consider how he loads his invasion forces so that they are not tied to one hex for such a long time. He needs to come up with much more shallow load outs so that his ships can get in and out and one turn.

As to strategy, I would give myself a B, or maybe a B- since I have too much of Montgomery's desire for orderliness.
As to economics, I would give myself an A-. I am flush with engines, ships, planes and have a decent stock pile of fuel, oil, resources, and HI points.
As to tactics, I would say a B+: I am probably a little overly concerned with taking losses.


< Message edited by cap_and_gown -- 8/30/2010 10:45:05 PM >

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RE: The butcher's bill - 9/2/2010 2:52:02 AM   
CapAndGown


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Sept. 14, 1943

Wotje fell today. Ailinglaplap will be invaded next turn. There is a good chance it will fall to the first shock attack.

It is becoming increasingly difficult for my search planes to keep track of allied fleet movements. Every turn I lose several search planes to allied CAP. Right now, the Army is completely out of trained search pilots. While the Navy is OK in that regard, at the rate we are losing planes, I cannot replenish my squadrons quick enough because of the seven day delay between reinforcements. I may have to go back to using search arcs to avoid snooping enemy bases. Unfortunately, that will not work when it comes to the allied carriers. Also, I am pretty sure that search arcs actually reduce a player's chances of spotting task forces. I have very serious doubts that search arcs actually work.

I have decided to pull most of my Sentai's out of the Marshalls. I don't see that they can accomplish much. The allies already have planes based at Maleolap. In a few turns I would expect 6 or 7 hundred allied AC to be based there, just as there are 4 or 5 thousand planes at every other allied base. (Really, do the allies need a strategy at all? Just pick up your giant sledgehammer and start pounding everything in sight.)

At least we were able to cause some damage to the allied sledgehammer this turn: two raids of B-24s attacked Thousand Ships Bay today. One raid of 102 planes, another of 15. 6 B-24s were shot down outright, and another 8 were ops losses. Not too bad; greater than a 10% loss rate. Most of the damage was caused by Nicks. Tony Ic models are starting to enter service. Even though they have a crappy service rating, I am eager to see what their 2x20mm cannons will do. (The arrival of the Id model just advanced to 44/3. I am "building" 59 per month, so I now estimate that this model [which has a service rating of 2] will arrive in January about the same time as the Frank.)

We could do better in dealing with the 4E threat if our radar actually worked. I am not sure what is going on with our radar. Over in Burma, the Ta-Chi 7 radar was giving sightings as far as 120 NM away. Over in the Solomons and New Guinea, we are lucky if we get a sighting 40 NM away. If I had more lead time, I could have more fighters engaging these raids. On Oct. 1 the type 2 radar that JNAF battalions use will upgrade to the type 3. I am hoping that that will improve our ability to detect these raids sooner.

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RE: The butcher's bill - 9/2/2010 4:42:46 AM   
aprezto


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interesting observation re search arcs. I can't say I've noticed faults and thought they worked well. Can you elaborate?

No idea how many HQs he'll be putting down, but obviously 5-700 planes on a size 4 airfield will suffer horrible stacking issues and be very vulnerable 'if' you can get at them with a sledge hammer of your own...

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RE: The butcher's bill - 9/2/2010 5:49:52 AM   
PaxMondo


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Hey, it's Sept and you are fighting in the Marshalls.  GREAT JOB!!!!!!

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RE: The butcher's bill - 9/3/2010 10:53:04 PM   
CapAndGown


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Sept. 16, 1943

Ailinglaplap was not invaded, contrary to my expectations. But the allied fleet continues maintain station between Wotje and Maleolap. Most of my AC have now been pulled out of the Marshalls.

I have made several plans for my future defenses. The most important of these are related to Truk. Truk has a limit of 60,000 men. A rather large atoll, but an atoll nonetheless. Thus, trying to take a well defended Truk could be extremely costly to the allies. It is my intention to heavily defend Truk so as to make the allies avoid it. I am going to garrison it with 2 1/3 divisions, or about 1000 AV. A reserve division at Kendari will load up tomorrow for transport to Truk, and another reserve division at Rabaul will be load up shortly. The forts there should reach level 5 very soon. Any allied landing is going to be shock attacking into 3x defensive terrain against heavily dug in defenders and after being shot to pieces by the CD guns. I just don't see them trying it.

This will leave them with the option of going around Truk, either south through the Solomons, which are well defended with many interlocking airbases and a large number of ground troops as garrisons, or north through the Marianas. I am thinking they will go through the Marianas. Indeed, by creating a stout defense of Truk, I am hoping to channel their attack towards the Marianas. The reasons for this are a) it is a long way from any allied bases, including those in the Marshalls, b) I have multiple interlocking airbases there, c) I have large garrisons that are dug in behind level 6 forts. With these advantages, I wish to use the airbases in the Marianas to attrition the allied CV AC and then commit the KB with the intention of causing severe damage to the allied fleet, thus slowing down their offensive.

The Marshalls proved to be a very important learning experience. The most important lesson was that fighters set to escort are a very poor way to attack enemy CV CAP. Instead, one needs to draw out the enemy fighters so they are put in the position of flying escort and thus are vulnerable to being bounced. Thus, my battle plan will be to use sacrificial ships on day one of the battle to draw out enemy CV strikes. These ships will have heavy CAP cover which will attrition the enemy fighters. On day two of the battle, the KB will be committed with the support of LBA air attacks. Unlike in the Marshalls, I have numerous Air HQ in the Marianas, so that land based torpedo bombers, such as Kates and Nells can be used. In addition, should the allies again decide to just park their carriers in one place and not move them, I will try to position the KB to attack the fleet carriers next time, and not the escort carriers. If this situation should arise, I will have additional sacrificial ships sortie so as to draw off some of the allied fighters so they cannot be used for CAP. I cannot expect that I will again have such an opportunity, but should it arise, it would be quite something to be able to have a strike on the allied fleet CVs without them being able to strike back. Oh, and one other thing that I will have that I did not have in the Marshalls will be 3 more CV and 2 more CVL, plus all 6 of my CVE will be committed as well.

quote:

ORIGINAL: aprezto

interesting observation re search arcs. I can't say I've noticed faults and thought they worked well. Can you elaborate?

No idea how many HQs he'll be putting down, but obviously 5-700 planes on a size 4 airfield will suffer horrible stacking issues and be very vulnerable 'if' you can get at them with a sledge hammer of your own...


I don't know whether they work or not, but I have a bad feeling about them. When I spotted the allied fleet closing in on the Marshals, the Emily's that did the spotting (at 17 hexes) were set to random. The next turn, I gave them very narrow search arcs and even though the allies were now 11 hexes away, I actually spotted few TFs. There is nothing definitive about this, but I just don't trust them.

My reference to 5 or 6 hundred allied AC at those bases was really tongue in cheek. That is what if feels like, though.

I was thinking the defensive part of the game would be the most fun. Perhaps this is from my experience in playing European theater games where the Germans are badly outnumbered, but can at least put together a somewhat credible defense. But though the Germans were heavily outnumbered, at least they had some decent equipment. The Japanese not only don't have the numbers, their equipment sucks as well!

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RE: The butcher's bill - 9/4/2010 8:05:14 AM   
krupp_88mm


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not using search arcs may also have the advantage of putting your opponent in a position that he can never guess your search patterns and avoid them, or if hes not sure your not using search arcs he may under / over estimate your search capabilities at multiple points

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RE: The butcher's bill - 9/4/2010 10:14:51 AM   
FatR

 

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I think you're giving up Marshalls/Gilberts too easily. Allies did not took enough losses to really weaken them before the decisive battle on the line beyond which Japanese cannot retreat. I would have attempted an all-out surface battle if I saw Allied fleets unmovingly pinned to the same hexes, assuming IJN battleline is in position to react. Now that Allies have functioning airfields, this chance might be lost, but I'd still use expendable assets, like smaller subs, PT boats and LBA to hit Allied shipping, launched strong night bombing attacks against Allied airfields, which should be overstacked and, due to the atolls restrictions, have weak flak, and launch surface raids as soon as the main Allied fleet retreats (again, islands Allies took are atolls, hard to cram both enough engineers/support to build and service a large airfield and a CD unit there).

As about seemingly inexhaustible Allied numbers, do note, that your opponent still fields alot of Wildcats on carriers. And Hellcat has THE highest replacement rate in 1943. I believe that, assuming healthy Japanese air production, it is possible to blunt the Allied spear at this stage of the game, exhausting their limited pools of top-tier planes and forcing them to fall back on older models, like Warhawks.

< Message edited by FatR -- 9/4/2010 10:22:21 AM >

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RE: The butcher's bill - 9/4/2010 11:09:01 AM   
janh

 

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I agree with FatR.  I would have tried to retake the Marshalls, or at least have your opponent blood a lot more.

I generally like you idea of using bait ships to draw out USN air strikes into your cap, though it is a little gamey.  But maybe a legitimate tactic-- or at least interesting.   I think in reality it  hardly would have worked, unless you include some high-value combat ships, but on the other hand in reality you could have ordered a loose high-altitude escort, or even sweeps towards the enemy carriers.

Also I bet that next time your opponent won't make it so easy for you again, and all you will achieve is waste a few more ships for a few lesser LBA aircraft before having to pull out.  This conceived trap is too complicated if you really believe you can use a timed 7 hex strike from your CV again.  And in a couple of months he will be substantially stronger in CV air as well.

I suppose the major reason why his CV's remained stationary was trying to lure KB into action and force a carrier battle, even at the risk of you benefiting from close air bases. Maybe your opponent originally believed the air fields would be out of action by the time KB would show up.  And his CV force still strong enough to at least fight out a draw.  If both sides had lost 2-3 CVs, he would have even won a victory.  Next time, I am sure he will not offer you that opportunity. 

But next time, the strategic price is likely going to be much higher, especially if he goes straight for the Marinas.  If in that case you'll loose a CV battle, you will not be able withdraw from the Marinas -- else the roof of Japan is wide open and he'll end up with huge bases close to many strategically interesting areas...  And he will have succesfully bypassed your strongholds, basically disabling plenty of your assets even without a fight...

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RE: The butcher's bill - 9/8/2010 1:53:00 AM   
CapAndGown


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Sept. 18-19, 1943

I have been a little lax in updating this AAR and responding to your comments. Nonetheless, many notable events have occurred.

First, in the Marshalls, the allies invaded Roi-Namur, Ailinglaplap, and Kwajalien. Ailinglaplap fell right away. At Roi-Namur the allies' first shock attack was at 1-11 odds. A nasty set back. Kwajalien has now seen two shock attacks. The forts are down to level one, but the island is still held by the Japanese. One would think that two shock attacks in a row would heavily disrupt the attackers. So no telling how long it will hold out.

In order for me to keep track of which units the allies have available for offensive actions, I am recording the units used for these invasions here:
Alinglaplap
108th Infantry Rgt
24th (Sep) Infantry Rgt
3rd Marine Rgt
Roi-Namur
5th Marine Rgt
Kwajalien
185th Infantry Rgt
160th Infantry Rgt

I was a little disappointed in the CD guns, especially at Roi-Namur. At Kwajalein the CD guns roughed up, and probably sank, some minesweepers, but the landing forces were mostly left alone. At Roi-Namur I had the Wake CD unit. I was expecting a lot from this unit with its big guns, but other than roughing up one xAK, the allies generally did not have any problems.

At any rate, the allies now have Maleolap, Wotje, and Ailinglaplap and have troops ashore on Roi-Namur and Kwajalein. I would expect that Ponape will be their next target, followed by Wake in the not-too-distant future. (If the allies do not take Wake, their LOC between the Marshalls and Hawaii will be vulnerable to surprise carrier raids.)

Now on to Burma! I have been on hair trigger alert for the evacuation of Burma for a while now. That trigger was pulled when allied recon showed up over Taung Gyi. Why? Because there is no one there! Nor is anyone at Shwebo or Lashio. A Nav Guard unit was being used as a garrison for Mandalay and I had some base forces at Magwe and Meiktila. But that is all I have left in Northern Burma. Now that the allies know a lot of these bases are empty, they can paradrop on them at any time. Rather than endanger my remaining units in Northern Burma, I have pulled them all south to Rangoon, Pegu, and Moulmein. Eventually, Moulmein will be my main defensive line, though for now I will continue to hold Rangoon. Even Moulmein seems a little too isolated for my tastes and I forsee my MLR being around Raheng. I am greatly expanding and fortifying that cluster of bases in central Thailand.

One really great piece of news is that I upgraded my first squadron to the George fighter today. 4x20mm cannons, armor, 30 durability, OK speed (360 mph, not great, but OK). I can't wait for the 4E bombers too show up!

In reply to Janh and FatR: I agree that it would be nice to bleed the allies more in the Marshalls, but I am not sure the use of surface assets would be the best choice for this at the moment with the allied CVs hanging around. Also, I am not sure that a direct attack on the allied spear head is necessarily the best approach while the possibility of hitting the allied supply lines east of the Marshalls remains an option. My big regret is not anticipating the enormous CAP my strikes on the Wotje force faced. I was hoping that the spill over CAP from the fleet carriers would be less than it was allowing my carriers to remain in the area. I could have done something to prevent that, such as ordering some bombers in the Marshalls to make naval and/or ground attacks on other hexes, thus diverting some of the CAP away from defending Wotje. And if I had had some sacrificial ships around, they could have been sent out to divert even more fighters away from providing CAP. This, I believe, was my ultimate mistake: thinking that by only attacking a portion of the allied force our casualties would not be quite so bad. Live and Learn. At any rate, before deciding to have the KB retire to restock, I did check on the allied reinforcement queue and found that between now an March 44 they receive 1 CV, and 4 CVL. For the rest of the year they also get 4 more CVE. Come 44, CVEs start to arrive in large numbers. But for the rest of 1943, anyway, the KB should be at parity with Task Force 58.

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RE: The butcher's bill - 9/8/2010 8:45:23 AM   
veji1

 

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You have played well so far, husbanding your ressources carefully, but I can't help but think that you have been too conservative during this Marshalls showdown... you should really have put everything into it : overstack airfields, attack, attack, LRCAP, mix it up but go for a very very aggressive strategy...

Of course the Marianas look better for defense, but you are deluding yourself if you think he will go there... it is a deathtrap for the allies... he will slowly choke you and you might never have that opportunity again.


_____________________________

Adieu Ô Dieu odieux... signé Adam

(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 594
RE: The butcher's bill - 9/16/2010 9:58:44 PM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline
Sept. 25, 1943

I have not been updating this very assiduously lately. I am concentrating on getting things done IRL. But that does not mean things have been totally uneventful.

First off, Kwajalein was captured a couple of turns back. Last turn an empty Kusaie Island was invaded and was captured this turn. It is currently a 0/0 base but with the allied engineering capability being what it is, that base should be able to rival Pearl Harbor in size in two or three turns. Certainly by tomorrow at the latest I would expect about 3-4 thousand allied bombers to be based there.

Added: For record keeping purposes, so that I can keep track of where and when allied ground units are being used, I want to add that Kusaei Island was invaded by the 147 (sep) infantry regiment.

I expect the allies to go after Ponape shortly. I am hoping that I have about a week before this invasion happens, though. The KB is just about ready to sail again, having restocked on planes and pilots and mended the dings and dents of continuous operations. I have just moved in an Air HQ to Truk and two divisions are going to unload there next turn. I am also bringing down sacrificial ships from the Marianas to draw out allied strikes. In watching the allied behaviour during the Kusaie invasion I believe I still detect a pattern of operations that I can make use of. Although the allies are moving their ships around this time, the CVs are still staying within one hex of the invasion target. Thus, they still seem to be tightly tethered to protecting the invasion forces allowing me to make a good estimate of where they will be so that I can again position my CVs so that they can strike while the allies cannot. Another possibly important factor is that not all the allied CVs are guarding this invasion. Several are still over in the Marshalls proper. I don't know if that pattern will hold for an invasion of Ponape, but it would help a lot in reducing the over all CAP my flyboys would have to face.

Now that my major naval construction program has been completed, I felt this would be a good time to provide an update on Japan's resource and industry situation.

With the completion of the last Unryu's, Naval Ship Yard activity has fallen way off, allowing me to save those HI points. Right now HI points (per turn) are allocated thus:

Naval Ship Yard: 226 - hi points 678
Merchant Ship Yard: 980 - hi points 2940
Armament factories: 110 - hi points 660
Vehicle factories: 90 - hi points 540
Airframes: 54 - hi points 951
Engines: 61 - hi points 1098

Total hi points consumed each day (according to tracker): 6867 (This seems to be off by 600)
Total HI factories (repaired): 7505
Potential HI production (per day): 15010
Actual HI production (per day): 9430
Surplus HI points (per day): ~1900

As you can see, I am producing 5580 fewer HI points per turn than my full potential. This is because I am trying to build up my fuel stocks, particularly in the Home Islands. I have turned off the big 2730 point HI factory at Tokyo. That means I consuming 5460 fewer tons of fuel per day than at full production and 54600 tons fewer resources than I would at full production. This means that the refineries in the Home Islands are actually producing more fuel than is being consumed by the industry there. Here are the numbers:

Fuel produced per day: 8055
Fuel needed per day: 6680
Surplus fuel per day: 1375
Resources produced per day: 157,800
Resources needed per day: 182,300
Resource deficit per day: 24,500

Right now, at full production, I have the following stocks on hand in the Home Islands:
Fuel: 147 days
Resources: 210 days

Of course, I am not running at full production, so these numbers understate the ability of the Home Islands to withstand being cut off from access to the DEI.

As to Oil, (my refineries are running at full production) I have about 185 days worth in the Home Islands. In other words, when the stockpile of fuel is combined with the stockpile of oil, I have enough fuel available in the Home Islands to run my current industry for almost a full year. Of course, that does not factor in the fuel that could be consumed by the navy and merchant marine!

I am now down to one resource convoy running between Fusan and Fukuoka. I am also running three big tanker convoys between Singapore and Fukuoka. And one moderate sized convoy is used on a pick-up basis to run supplies to China/Formosa/Luzon and bring back resources.

As to HI on hand, I have about 1,500,000 points, which, by my calculation translates into 200 days worth of production at current levels.

As time passes, I will be turning off more and more Merchant Ship Yards to save on HI. Most of the HI saved there will be used to build engines and airframes. I am steadily expanding my engine factories. For some engines I am currently building fewer than are being consumed and these are being expanded. For others, I am running a surplus. My overall goal here is build a huge surplus of engines so that the Japanese war machine cannot be shutdown through strategic bombing. In fact, my expansion of engine factories has been so extensive that my supply levels in the Home Islands have been steadily dropping for the last few months.

Globally, Japanese stocks of Oil have been steadily dropping and now stand at about 2,000,000 tons. Fuel stocks, on the other hand, have been steadily rising, especially since I turned off the big HI factory at Tokyo; 3.3 million tons of fuel are either aboard tankers or located at bases. I am obviously refining oil faster than it can be produced.

A few more notes:

The DEI is a major source of HI production:
Singapore: 180
Batavia: 160
Sorebaja: 160

I am thinking about expanding the factory at Singapore some more. OTOH, I think I may have gone a little overboard on the factories on Java since that island now consumes 3710 more resources than it produces, meaning I need to constantly bring in resources from nearby resource centers such as Balikpapan, Makassar, Kendari, Billiton, etc. Singapore is fine as far as resources go, and since I use it as a hub for trans-shipping fuel and oil to the Home Islands, it is constantly getting fresh infusions of fuel.

Port Arthur currently has a 160 day supply of oil to feed its refinery. OTOH, Manchuria and North China have been consuming more fuel than I can account for. I have turned off two factories worth 60 HI points there (Harbin and Peiping) which should mean I am producing 60 more fuel than is consumed by the factories. Yet every turn about 1000 tons of fuel disappears. This is not to naval units, unless ACMs consume a huge amount of fuel. I really don't know where that fuel is going.

In the next few posts I will provide screen shots of my current production situation.


< Message edited by cap_and_gown -- 9/16/2010 11:52:09 PM >

(in reply to veji1)
Post #: 595
RE: The butcher's bill - 9/16/2010 11:03:52 PM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline
Production Graph





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(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 596
RE: The butcher's bill - 9/16/2010 11:10:22 PM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline
Global Supply, Fuel, Oil




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(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 597
RE: The butcher's bill - 9/16/2010 11:41:43 PM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline
Here is my current production of airframes and engines.

Producing just 50 Emily's, both patrol and transport versions, sucks down an enormous number of engines: 200. The Ha-32 is a very popular engine and will only become more popular as later models arrives, such as the D4Y3 Judy. The Ha-33 is another popular engine that will become more popular as time goes by. Meanwhile, the Ha-35, though popular at the beginning of the war, is used for a lot fewer airframes than I thought it would be in the later years.

In the last year of game time I have had a complete change of heart regarding the Tony. At first I didn't like the odd ball Kawasaki engine which is only used by this plane. The early model Tony's also had a lousy service rating. Now that I understand the R&D system better, however, I am beginning to think the Tony Id model will become the mainstay of my airforce in 1944. It has a service rating of 2. While 16 mph slower than the Tojo, it does have 2x20mm cannons. As a result, I am now aiming to increase production of Kawasaki engines so that when the Tony Id model becomes available (should be in January) I will be able to produce these planes in large quantities.

The only plane to use the Ha-34 engine is the Helen, both bomber and transport versions. Nevertheless, because these are two engine planes, this engine needs to be made in very large numbers. In this case, rather than stockpiling engines, however, I am looking to stockpile planes since the Helen will be the workhorse bomber/transport for the rest of the war. In addition to the 56 IIb models shown in the pool below, there are also 400 IIa models available for reinforcements.

The Ha-44 engine was used for the early versions of the Jill torpedo bomber. That has been now been superseded by the B6N2 model which uses the Ha-32 engine. Nevertheless, I continued to run the Ha-44 line to build up a stockpile in case I am able to advance the late war fighter Ki-94-II. I have just now switched this factory over to making the Kawasaki engine so that I can build lots of Tony Id models when they become available.





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(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 598
RE: The butcher's bill - 9/17/2010 12:04:33 AM   
CapAndGown


Posts: 3206
Joined: 3/6/2001
From: Virginia, USA
Status: offline
Here is a snapshot of my R&D status.

Most notable is that the Tojo IIc will become available in November!

The Tony Id and the Frank should become available in January.

I am not sure about the D4Y3 Judy, but I think I may be getting them in February.

I have a large number of factories working on the Ki-83. When the Tojo IIc next advances, I will probably switch a bunch of those factories over to this model while others will be switched over to the Ki-94-II. Perhaps a few might be given over to the Shinden. I should probably ditch the Betty factories in favor of something else.





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(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 599
RE: The butcher's bill - 9/17/2010 11:52:51 AM   
FatR

 

Posts: 2522
Joined: 10/23/2009
From: St.Petersburg, Russia
Status: offline
One thing that seems completely pointless to me is turning off HI. Keeping the aircrafr production limited until advanced late-war types become available is sensible, but once HI points are in the pool, they are not going anywhere and when Home Islands are blockaded you don't need any fuel for the merchant fleet there anyway. And the Navy should go the bottom before allowing such situation to happen.

(in reply to CapAndGown)
Post #: 600
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