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RE: Das darf nicht var sein!

 
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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 7:24:19 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Nemo, I based my comments upon my evaluation that Steve will come for Sumatra. That's based upon what I've seen to date and what I think is his most likely course of action.

I am aware that others were contributing to his AAR at the start of the game - Chickenboy told me that he was, and I saw Alfred's name on more than one occasion. But from what I've seen, Steve doesn't seem to be following the advice of players of their caliber, at least up to now. He also isn't posting much these days, which would seem to make the exchange of ideas sporadic unless he's exchanging PMs.

I could be mistaken in my evaluation, so I have given thought to what I would do if Steve were to neutralize and largely bypass Sumatra. First, as we noted previously we are working with a house rule that prohibits strategic bombing in the DEI and China until 1944. So Steve can't bomb the oil refinery to stop the production of supplies. He can try to do so by using cruisers, the biggest ships that can reach Palembang, but I don't think that would work.

Since Sumatra can produce supplies, he's not going to eradicate the Allied army there for many months. He could could instead neutralize the Allied position in eastern Sumatra for now, saving it for later, by isolating it. He can do this by taking the nothern and western bases and the bases in Java over the coming weeks. Doing so and winning the air campaign over eastern Sumatra will prevent Allies ships from coming or going, thus effectively isolating the garrison.

What to do then? It doesn't benefit Steve to just sit on Sumatra for months until the Allies grow strong enough to come to the relief of the isolated garrison. He needs to move in a big way to take advantage of the remaining period of Japanese initiative that he still has. Using his troops to move on China would be the most logical choice. A move on India would be his second best choice, but I think that is very unlikely since (1) he won't know how much the Allies have there, and (2) the Allies can probably fight effectively for India since they have American troops coming and and since the carrier disparity has been reduced with the loss of three IJN CVL and one CVE (though it might only be heavily damaged rather than sunk).

Thus, in my opinion Steve's best course of action is to work on isolating Sumatra while ramping up his India campaign.

Edited to change "oil" to "supplies."

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/1/2011 7:53:17 PM >

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 871
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 7:28:46 PM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 6685
Joined: 9/28/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Here are Steve's Sumatra invasion options from most direct to most indirect.  This is so complicated it is a game entirely within itself:

Palembang:  An invasion of Palembang offers Steve's the safest seaborne approach because there is little likelihood of interception by Allied combat ships.  The approaches will be dominated by IJ LBA and ships.  But landing here means bottling up the IJA invasion force on the beach with the Allies able to freely bring in reinforcements.  Also, Steve will believe this hex is the most strongly guarded.  I rate the odds of an amphibious assault here very unlikely and very favorable to the Allies.

Oosthaven:  This may be the most attractive beach to the enemy - close proximity to Palembang means a straightforward land campaign once the invaison troops are ashore.  Also, Oosthaven is on the border of IJ controlled waters and will be close to IJ airfields once Japan takes Java.  Oosthaven, however, is the most heavily protected by Allied CD guns and is at least somewhat vulnerable to interdiction by Allied combat ships.  I rate the likelihood of invasion here as high.  The Allies have 1300 AV now, which will be augumented.  If Japan lands here, the Allies can easily reinforce Palembang from other bases.

Benkolen:  This is the least-heavily protected Allied base that offers quick access to Palembang; least-heavily protected because it offers Allied combat ships the best chance at intercepting an invasion force.  Landing here allows the Allies to quickly reinforce Palembang from the Oosthaven garrison.  I rate the likelihood of invasion here somewhat lower than Oosthaven, but higher than the next base.

Padang:  Lightly protected, but offere the Allies a better chance at attacking the invasion force.  An invasion here in strength means a long IJ campaign across yellow roads, which should mean supply problems.  I rate the chances of an invasion here as fairly low.

North Coast:  Japan can land here uncontested, but then faces an even longer campaign across Sumatra's yellow road system.  This would be a most inefficient way for Japan to attack - long, slow, risking taking many months...but it would eliminate the possibility of a sea battle.  I rate the chances of such an attack as fairly high.

What I think will happen:  Steve will mount a small "feeler" campaign from Sumatra's north coast; try to gain control of the air; take Java, and then invade either Oosthaven or Benkolen.  The Allies will seek opportunities to strike around Sumatra, and will engage in new offensives in distant locales to try keep Japan off balance.





Ah, whilst I was busy answering a query in another thread and then having to deal with my internet connection again falling out, I see Nemo has posted. Therefore I will make only two short points regarding the above analysis from Canoerebel.

1. The Battle for Palembang should be a much bigger affair than the above analysis suggests it will be.

2. Unlike classic WITP, AE has a much lower "tax" levied on the movement of supplies than Canoerebel has consistently factored into his despatches. This lower "tax" has a major impact on combat operations.

Alfred

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 872
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 7:36:38 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Nemo, you asked what I would do if Steve isolates or neutralizes Sumatra. If the Allies are in a position of being unable to continue sending in reinforcements, I will have to decide whether to keep my combat ships and carriers in theater, posing a threat, or whether to utilize them elsewhere. This evaluation will be fluid.

Allied strategy in NoPac is also fluid as the Allies wait to see whether Japan commits a large force there. If Japan doesn't, the Allies will build those garrisons.

In either event, the next Allied target is likely to be one of two locales: (1) Malaya, or (2) the Gilbert Islands. The choice will depend partly on where Steve concentrates his forces, especially the KB. If Japanese carriers are posted in the DEI, the Allies will hit the Gilberts, and vice versa if the carriers are in the Pacific. I only have enough PP to engage in one of these operations, so I want to be sure before I expend the PP.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/1/2011 7:44:15 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 7:39:14 PM   
SuluSea


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

quote:

Here are Steve's Sumatra invasion options from most direct to most indirect. This is so complicated it is a game entirely within itself:


I don't disagree with your points following this statement. I'd alter them a bit as I think there are a few wrinkles he could throw in to really mess you around --- but I doubt he'll do so --- but, generally they are sound. I would aver a thought for you though...

You spoke of his invasion options instead of his neutralisation options. Alfred has posted to his thread within the last dozen posts or so ( this is from memory but I don't see much activity there and Alfred's post occured within a timeframe within which not much change has occured so the point is valid even if the post count is a little off ) and I have a few thoughts about what Alfred might have posted and how you might have to consider it.

1. Alfred wouldn't have posted a question. Not his style and not necessary. Alfred would fairly well know the answer to any relevant question he would want to ask re: your opponent's thinking around Sumatra or strategically in general. Thus Alfred probably posted commentary regarding the strategic situation.

2. Alfred doesn't go in for opaque, obfuscatory yet, ultimately revealing sequiturs. His motivations are different than mine and so his post content and style also differs. Instead he posits a situation and describes the context, ramifications of it and the logical outcomes and influences of those factors on the strategic situation. In short he clarifies, points out errors in thought and suggests solutions instead of hinting at the problem and inviting the reader to do most of the work...

3. Alfred will NOT have made the mistake of viewing Sumatra within the prescribed confines of invasion and will, instead, be open to all options one's assumptions usually proscribe.

4. IF your opponent listens to Alfred you will need to plan for a neutralisation strategy which will be very different than anything you've outlined above. Perhaps you've considered it. I haven't seen clear evidence of that though.


With the above said I believe we'd have seen evidence in the recent past if your opponent were acting on Alfred's advice.... He doesn't appear to be so you probably won't be facing a neutralisation/bypass strategy but it would be worth spending 5 minutes thinking about how you would handle it if you did face it... even if purely as an exercise in planning. Of course, that's just my opinion, you may, of course, find it unnecessary in this game. For your next tranche of games though you may find yourself facing people who would be alive to the reality that encirclement is a matter of opinion --- one of my favourite military axioms of all time.

It's poor form to talk about what another member may or may not be saying in an opposing AAR.

_____________________________

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(in reply to Nemo121)
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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 7:41:34 PM   
Alfred

 

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Status: offline 		Just for the record, I don't believe it is correct for third parties to provide unsolicited advice in a PM as to how to proceed to parties involved in an ongoing AAR. Third party advice should be provided publicly in the AAR.

I very much doubt that ChezDaJez has solicited any advise/assistance in private from anyone. He certainly hasn't of me and I have not PM'd him.

Alfred

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 7:42:41 PM   
witpqs


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From: Argleton
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121
opaque, obfuscatory yet, ultimately revealing sequiturs.


That is the funniest damn thing I've seen you post!

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 7:45:09 PM   
witpqs


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From: Argleton
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quote:

ORIGINAL: SuluSea

It's poor form to talk about what another member may or may not be saying in an opposing AAR.


To be fair, he did not make any reference to reading it and implied he did not read it. He analyzed what he figured the member was saying based on his general knowledge of the members' other posts. That might or might not be your cup of tea, but's not an opsec breach.

(in reply to SuluSea)
Post #: 877
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 7:45:11 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		Ah, the moral scion of the forum strikes again.

I haven't read Chez Da Jez's thread and I haven't read Alfred's posts. I saw he had posted in Chez's thread ( as the forum displays that information to all members of the forum who visit the AAR forum ).

There's nothing wrong with speculating about what someone may have said in a thread you haven't read. After all, if Alfred is giving Chez advice that may sway his thinking and THAT is very much relevant to Canoerebel.

I suggest you reconsider your knee-jerk reaction and actually think about what happened. I speculated about what someone who often gives strategic advice advised. There's nothing wrong in that and I'd thank you to think before posting yourself.

_____________________________

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Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to SuluSea)
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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 7:49:09 PM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: SuluSea
It's poor form to talk about what another member may or may not be saying in an opposing AAR.


SuluSea, I don't think Nemo is reading my opponent's AAR, so I believe what he just said is based upon his interpretation of what Alfred would be inclined to say in posts. Nemo isn't the kind to violate OpSec. But...dang...the vocabulary and thought processes contained in the typical Nemo and Alfred posts require deep thinking that can be very taxing to the average southerner!

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/1/2011 7:50:35 PM >

(in reply to SuluSea)
Post #: 879
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 7:50:34 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
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From: Argleton
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

1. The Battle for Palembang should be a much bigger affair than the above analysis suggests it will be.

2. Unlike classic WITP, AE has a much lower "tax" levied on the movement of supplies than Canoerebel has consistently factored into his despatches. This lower "tax" has a major impact on combat operations.

Alfred


Additional info - In my current game with Treespider, I saw a big difference in effectiveness of aerial bombing against my forces in Palembang versus Clark Field. Palembang is nice x3 defense terrain, but I gained the impression that the swamp terrain at Palembang provides less protection against aerial bombing than the jungle+rough at Clark (and presumably the same would apply versus forest+rough and mountain). I found my troops taking AV hits from bombing that I did not anticipate.

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 880
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 7:50:56 PM   
Nemo121


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Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		Alfred,

I am only referring to having noticed you as a "last poster" to Chez's thread.... and since you posted at a time when the Sumatra question was the main question I'm assuming you posted something to do with that --- and I'm sure you advocated an indirect approach, turning strength into weakness... A huge number of troops is a powerful defensive position BUT also a position which will starve quickly. I'm sure that would have played part in your thinking and advice, just as it would in mine if I were to post in Chez's thread.


Just to be clear though:
I amn't reading Chez's thread. I do, however, think Alfred would give the same advice I would give to Chez. Since I know what I would say I am comfortable speculating about what Alfred would say. Sure there would be some differences but, overall, I'm sure Alfred would give much the same advice I would. In this situation I would advise to isolate Sumatra and turn it into an Allied cesspool whilst exploiting deeply into positions uncovered by the focus on Sumatra.... I think that's what ALfred would have advised. I also think Chez won't take that advice.

I think it is LUDICROUS to suggest that we cannot comment about what advice someone would be getting from posters who post to their AAR. If PzB, myself Alfred, Canoerebel, jrcar, tony, Pauk and a few others were advising a player I think it would be HIGHLY relevant for his opponent to begin speculating ( with readers of his AAR ) just what we might be advising/suggesting.

Then again, ludicrousness is common and common sense is rare.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Nemo121)
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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 7:55:04 PM   
Nemo121


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Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		Fortifications provide greater protection to aerial bombing than terrain IME. Might there have been significantly different fortification levels in the two hexes?

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 882
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 7:56:26 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred
Just for the record, I don't believe it is correct for third parties to provide unsolicited advice in a PM as to how to proceed to parties involved in an ongoing AAR. Third party advice should be provided publicly in the AAR.

I very much doubt that ChezDaJez has solicited any advise/assistance in private from anyone. He certainly hasn't of me and I have not PM'd him.
Alfred


*ack* I wasn't implying that anybody was doing anything wrong. For what it's worth, I certainly wouldn't have thought PMing was wrong, though now I see that it might lend itself to questions about whether there might be OpSec violations. Yet everybody mentioned in everyone of these past ten or fifteen posts are players of the highest caliber with unquestioned integrity. A pox upon digital communication that lends itself to creating these little dramas when none was intended or necessary.

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 883
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 8:00:37 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Here's a recapitulation on my present evaluation of my opponent and his likely course of action:

1. He isn't likely to bypass Sumatra.
2. I don't think he is likely to accept advice to do something radically different.
3. I think an invasion of Sumatra will follow upon the conquest of Java.
4. If he surprises me by isolating Sumatra, I think the only likely and worthwhile targets are China and India. He's likely to assume that Oz and Hawaii would be too strongly defended at this late date, and New Zealand is strategically small potatoes under the circumstances.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/1/2011 8:02:05 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 8:00:45 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		Aye, I've commented on games via PM... when approached by the authors and requested to do so by them.

I would, generally, say less and be less specific/clear/helpful in PM than in public because of the possible OPSEC issues - it might only be an optics/appearance issue but it is still there - than I would be in a public AAR. However I think that someone with integrity will self-monitor whether in public or private.

Integrity is what we do when no-one's looking or will ever find out. That's certainly the code I live by. I do agree it could be an optics/appearance issue though.

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 885
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 8:31:47 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
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Status: offline 		That's a good question - if you have a month before he hits the beach (perhaps), what do you think your fortification levels will look like?

I'm very curious to see which way he's going to jump here - it should give you a lot of insight into his decision-making process (whether he's settling down or getting riled up again).

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 8:40:45 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Palembang forts are currently at about 4.6 and should reach 5 unless things really go badly. Forts have been building slowly, but an American EAB just arrived, which should speed things up a bit.

Oosthaven and Benkolen are both around 3.5 or so and should reach level 4 since engineer reinforcements just arrived there, too.

Note that the Japanese invasion bonus just expired. So it will take the Japanese longer to unload ships, which increases the possiblity that an Allied surface combat TF intercept would have a real chance of affecting enemy AV if they can make it through defenses far enough to tangle with transports.

Later today I'll post a more thorough report about Sumatra's defenses including CD units, fighters, bombers, fort levels, etc. Sumatra is strong, but the risks are very, very high. For the Allies to lose a 4000 AV army would be incredibly painful. So the Allies have to fight well - not only in Sumatra, but in other locations where the enemy might be absent due to the need to focus on Sumatra (and NoPac and wherever else Steve elects to attack).

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/1/2011 8:42:04 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 8:40:56 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Integrity is what we do when no-one's looking or will ever find out.

+1

quote:


Fortifications provide greater protection to aerial bombing than terrain IME. Might there have been significantly different fortification levels in the two hexes?


Unfortunately, no. Palembang didn't get past 1 before base bombing to suppress construction began. Clark also had 1, but only until the first attack. That was a disaster, so there was a long period where Clark had 0 and Palembang had 1. Still, Palembang had worse casualties from air attacks. Never ran low on supplies either. I didn't check just before it fell, but it was 58,000+ a week or two before the end. AV maxed at about 800, but when the serious bombing commenced that fairly quickly dropped to 700 and even less as time went on. Due to a squad upgrade mistake on my part, AV dropped about 150 or more in one shot (to perhaps 450ish at the time) making it difficult to keep track of the real losses to air (I wasn't bothering to keep a detailed tally).

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 9:05:35 PM   
SuluSea


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

Ah, the moral scion of the forum strikes again.

I haven't read Chez Da Jez's thread and I haven't read Alfred's posts. I saw he had posted in Chez's thread ( as the forum displays that information to all members of the forum who visit the AAR forum ).

There's nothing wrong with speculating about what someone may have said in a thread you haven't read. After all, if Alfred is giving Chez advice that may sway his thinking and THAT is very much relevant to Canoerebel.

I suggest you reconsider your knee-jerk reaction and actually think about what happened. I speculated about what someone who often gives strategic advice advised. There's nothing wrong in that and I'd thank you to think before posting yourself.





Those 62 minutes that Alfred had the last post in Chez's AAR, what if Canoe didn't see it? I believe it was a poor choice on your behalf to inform who is posting in the AAR and you further compounded it by speculating on what the advice may be.





_____________________________

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Post #: 889
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 9:14:18 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Chez hasn't posted in his AAR in two weeks. I keep as careful track as possible, though I'm not omnipresent on the forums. And we've discussed in here previously my thoughts regarding both Chickenboy and Alfred posting there, so this was nothing new.

(in reply to SuluSea)
Post #: 890
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 10:21:13 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		One more important note about my evaluation of Steve's intentions. One reason I think that only China and India are viable major targets at this late date is because a large-scale enemy invasion of Australia, New Zealand or Hawaii would take Steve's forces, necessarily including the KB, away from Sumatra, thus permitting the Allies to continue reinforcing, at least until he imposes a blockade, which will take him another month or two, and to even invade some tender area like Malaya. I don't think he can afford to look east now - he's got to attend to Sumatra in some form or fashion, and IMO only action aimed at China, Sumatra, and/or India focuses his strength where he needs it and where he has a shot at halting the Allies.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/1/2011 10:23:02 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 891
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 10:41:04 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Map of AV and fort level in eastern Sumatra as of 4/2/42. Note: This is the map of the 3/15/42 turn that I used in a post on that date, with the only changes being AV, fort levels, and a few other details. That's why this map shows Singapore still in Allied hands.

Distribution of Allied troops in Sumatra is designed to provide cover against enemy paratroop attacks and to centrally position some units that can rapidly report to an invasion target. Also, the Allies have 172 AV at Sabang. My plan is to withdraw that garrison, but if enemy air activity prevents me from doing so, those units would try to make to eastern Sumatra.

If the enemy comes at Sumatra quickly and without taking and building up forward airfields on Java, the Allies can effectively oppose the landings with air and seapower. This would favor the Allies, so I doubt Steve does it.

If the enemy is more methodical, taking and building up forward airfields in western Sumatra and western Java, and then positioning the KB and combat ships to support an invasion, the task becomes much more difficult for the Allies. But it should take Steve at least a month to two months to achieve such a position. And that would give the Allies time to reinforce and look for opportunities to strike and sting.

As stated previously, I think Steve will focus on Sumatra soon rather than bypassing and isolating it, but we'll see.




Attachment (1)

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 892
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/1/2011 11:21:20 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
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Status: offline 		Do you have any forces on Christmas Island (IO) and Cocos Island?? They would at least provide intel of any potential moves from that direction with a few PBY squadrons there.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 893
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/2/2011 12:08:02 AM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		SS, You are welcome to your opinion - which is just that, an opinion. You think I shouldn't have mentioned who posted there - despite it being publicly available informaiton - I think it was justified. We can agree to differ. Simple.

< Message edited by Nemo121 -- 6/2/2011 12:10:31 AM >

_____________________________

John Dillworth: "I had GreyJoy check my spelling and he said it was fine."
Well, that's that settled then.

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Post #: 894
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/2/2011 12:48:45 AM   
desicat

 

Posts: 542
Joined: 5/25/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Thus, in my opinion Steve's best course of action is to work on isolating Sumatra while ramping up his India campaign.

Edited to change "oil" to "supplies."


Based upon current Japanese force allocations it would be highly improbable at this point for Chez to kickoff an invasion of India. I would expect that if his initial plan for auto-victory was to take India you would have seen a greater emphasis on taking Singapore and a pushing through of Sumatra along with an early strike at Port Blair. Japan is way behind in the DEI, has to deal with a Kurile incursion, has issues in China, has lost the mini-KB, and has to do something about fortress Palembang - India is now beyond his grasp.

A quick comparison to your game with Q-Ball and his invasion timeline reveals the futility of an attempted Indian strategy on the the fly by Chez. The timeline is now totally wrong and India will be too strong and reinforceable. Any attempt to isolate or bypass Sumatra would be catastrophic for Japan at this point as it would provide a kickoff point pointed directly at the heart of the empire. Any troops attempting to bypass would be cut off, difficult to supply, are desperately needed elsewhere, and would always have to keep an eye toward their SLOC's. Palembang supply as you noted can't be easily disrupted, and any attempt he makes will have to include such a significant allocation of assets that he may as well invade.

Chez will come for Sumatra and he will bring the KB in hopes of winning a carrier battle. The invasion will be slow and will proceed along the lines you anticipate.

What should you do at this point? Can you hold Sumatra? If not does it make sense to have your carries in theater? They could cause him damage but what could they do elsewhere while the KB is engaged in the DEI? Why risk him getting in a lucky strike against your CV's?

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 895
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/2/2011 1:23:56 AM   
DTurtle

 

Posts: 443
Joined: 4/26/2010
Status: offline 		Have you reinforced/fortified any other parts of the DEI? Or is everything going to Sumatra? If - as you think - an approach via Java -> Oosthaven is highly likely, an additional stronghold or stumbling stone could prove useful. There is also additional oil in Java that could be trashed by defending it a bit stronger.

Of course, it could critically weaken your Sumatra stronghold, but it might buy time that makes it worth it.

Have you also thought about staging smaller raiders in those areas? Even if caught, they could force him to escort a lot more in his own backyard. It might be an additional way to punish him for ignoring so much of the DEI for such a long time.

(in reply to desicat)
Post #: 896
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/2/2011 2:28:54 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Lots of good analysis, suggestons, and thoughts. 

Desicat:  You state your case well.  I agree that an invasion of India is unlikely at this late point, but it's the only major operation (other than China) that doesn't allow the Allies to continue building Sumatra.  My money is on Steve coming after Sumatra and also perhaps beefing up his China army.

NYGiants:  The Allies have 70 AV at Cocos Island with a PBY squadron operating.  I haven't done anything with Christmas Island (IO), but I'll take a look at it.  I have lots of picket ships strung south from Java and operating from Cocos Island to guard against unpleasant surprises.

DTurtle:  The Allies have fought a long delaying battle in the DEI, helped by Japan's rather tepid activity for too many months.  In addition to a variety of naval and air engagements that bled and slowed Japan, the Allies did not withdraw the Singapore garrison, which stymied Japan until two days ago.  Now the Allies ae down to Sumatra, Java, a few Borneo bases and Mindanao.  None but Sumatra is strong, but the Allies are considering an invasion of Denpasar (east of Soerabaja) if Steve sends the KB to the Kuriles or some other distant outpost.

(in reply to DTurtle)
Post #: 897
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/2/2011 7:42:14 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/4/42
 
Sumatra:  The western Allied troops attacked and defeated the disorganized IJ force retreating from Sabang.  The Allies want to keep up the appearance of conquest and carnage here to force Japan to allocate resources intended for other places.  Japanese bombers from Malaya were able to overcome Benkolen's fighters to damage or sank two or three small transports carrying supply. 

Java:  BBs Kongo, Haruna and Ise in the Java Sea, as Steve leads with his nose once again.  This TF may be bound for Batavia to bombard.  I want to strike, though I'm leary of being lured into a KB-enforced trap.  I have a one-BB TF at Oosthaven, plus PT TFs.  I may try for an intercept, hoping that damaged IJN ships would then be subject to effective air strikes.  Mulling over this possibility.  No present sign of enemy invasion force approaching vulnerable Java.  Indomitable, Yorktown, and Enterprise are south of Sumatra, heading east slowly in case there is an opportunity to pounce (or to offload strike aircraft so that they can try to pounce).

Capetown:  27th USA Division has arrived.  Do I sped the PP to buy this, or is buying American units on the West Coast to invade the Gilberts a higher priority?  Tough call here.  I'm leaning towads buying 27th Division since it could be a major player in a theater where the war could be won in coming weeks and months. 

China:  Four Chinese corps at Kienko attacked at 1:1 odds, reducing forts to nil.  The Chinese might take this base tomorrow.  My main goal, though, is to simply rough up IJA units wherever I can.  The Chinese army in the forests east of Sian are on the move.  I've finally decided to probe what seem to be weak Japanese garrisons from Ichang to Loyang.

NoPac:  44 Nells and 39 Bettys sortied without scoring a hit - bombing from very long range isn't working well for Japan.  Maybe as soon as tomorrow Steve will have a decent base force and some bombers at Shimishura Jima, a level two airfield that will change things a bit.  However, only a few Allied ships remain at Para, though one TF is trying to unload an American coastal artillery unit as quickly as possible.  Warspite and Idaho bombarded Amchitka, solely to give the impression of Allied aggression in as many locales as possible.

Pacific:  Quiet here.  Steve has shown the most interest in this region throughout the game.  He's been steadily reconning or bombing both Pago Pago and Savaii.  We'll see if he decides to continue with offensive operations in this theater, or if the emergencies elsewhere dampen his enthusiasm.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/2/2011 7:43:41 PM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 898
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/2/2011 7:52:22 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		I concur with your thinking Dan. It is far too late for any big offensives by the Japanese player. he might have units prepping for distant targets but to land now, with no bonus, will be difficult. Has your Intel shown anything in this arena?

It boggles my mind that he has allowed this to develop. Your position is incredible considering this is Scen 2 and he is an experienced player...


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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 899
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/2/2011 8:25:52 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		This is a weird game no doubt.  The fact that Steve is experienced adds to the weirdness.  I look forward to eventually hearing his explanation of what the heck has happened from his perspective.

I think Steve has figured out that I was getting too much intel.  The "prepping for" and "maru bound for" stuff has slowed considerably.  That which I do get is mostly uselss, like "xx unit is at Singapore" or "xx unit is prepping for Changsha."  Those are pretty obvious.

My guess as to Steve's strategy?  I say he'll focus on Sumatra and the Kuriles, nibble a bit on the peripheries at fairly lightly defended bases, work in China, and eventually transition over to the defensive.  I don't believe there will be any big and bold moves on major Allied land masses, though I'll continue sniffing for any indications to the contrary.

(in reply to John 3rd)
Post #: 900
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