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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/5/2011 6:34:12 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline 		CR, I've lost track of the map. Has he taken any oil/fuel bases at all?

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Post #: 931
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/5/2011 7:15:03 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Oil:  Japan took Balikpan a month ago and Tarakan within the week.  Miri, Brunei, Samarinda, Palembang and Java are still in Allied hands.

Japanese Intentions:  As Paullus99 notes, the use of IJ carriers in NoPac is an allocation of force worth noting.  That combined with the sudden appearance of a major IJ amphibious group heading for Samoa - at least that's my initial assessment - is quite a commitment by Japan.

Allied Reaction:  Cribtop HQ...darn it, I keep making that mistake...Excuse me, Canoerebel HQ, expected Japan to commit carriers to NoPac following the invasions of Onnekotan and Paramushiro.  Now the Allies have to make use of the lack of these IJ forces in the DEI.  I'm now almost certian to use the PP to buy 27th USA Div. in two days.  A new Brit division has begun it's arrival on the map (the first brigade is on its way to Colombo).  The Allies are mulling over four operations.  The following list is from most likely to least likely:

Invasion of Malaya/Burma:  Unbelievably, the Allies stil hold Tavoy and the base to the south (Steve's failure to attend to details like proper mopping up is one of the things I had in mind during yesterday's discussion).  The Allies could air transport in a base force to provide CAP, use the carriers to provide additional CAP, and land roughly two divisions that could then move north to isolate Japan's weak Burma army.  There's a very good chance Steve doesn't have more than about 450 AV in Burma, so the Allies could possibly reclaim Rangoon, which would be a major blow to a Japan already facing a protracted campaign in Sumatra requiring all of its resources.  Also, I like this because if it somehow turns sour, the Allied divisions can make their way back to friendly lines by cross-country marching.

Reinforce Sumatra:  This has some allure because Japan is paying a heckuva lot of attention to western Sumatra, as expected and hoped.  It's pretty clear that Steve's post-Singapore plan relied upon Japan holding these bases, so that the Allied invasion of Sabang created a crisis.  There would be some benefit to augmenting the Allied force in Sumatra.  If the KB or a fair part of it is far away, the Allies intend to do everything possible to make Fortress Palembang permanent.  I wouldn't mind throwing everything into a combined land/sea/air campaign if the enemy has weakened its own forces to pursue objectives in the distant Pacific.

Invade Denpassar or Koepang:  This idea has lost most of its appeal as I think Japan would ingore the invasions and attend to them later.  Neither gives the Allies the kind of position of strength on which they can build and wage war like Sumatra and Burma/Malaya do.

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Post #: 932
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/5/2011 8:06:56 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		I vote Burma/Malaya.

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Post #: 933
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/5/2011 8:25:32 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		I second that vote!

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Post #: 934
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/5/2011 8:45:12 PM   
DivePac88


Posts: 3119
Joined: 10/9/2008
From: Somewhere in the South Pacific.
Status: offline 		I think any Japanese player would view a 2x division operation in southern Burma with grave concern. Apart from the threat of isolating any Japanese forces in central Burma. There is also the risk of the Allied player moving against Bangkok, and cutting Japan's land communication's with Malaya. This is why it is always important for the Japanese player to backfill the map, and at least cover their main LOC.



< Message edited by DivePac88 -- 6/5/2011 8:46:42 PM >

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Post #: 935
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/5/2011 9:00:55 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I don't have exact details about Japan's situation in Burma, but I can make a pretty good guess.

Japan crossed into Burma with several regiments totaling about 450 AV.  This army slowly chased the Allied Burma army up the road.  Currently, the Japanese have Mandalay while the Allies have about 250 AV across the river at Schwebo.  The Japanese haven't pressed, which suggests the army hasn't been strongly reinforced.  I bet two IJ regiments are up around Mandalay while a minor garrison force is holding Rangoon.

Steve probably intends to reinforce his Burma army as soon as he can get into the Bay of Bengal, but that hasn't happened yet since Singapore just fell and the Allies hold Sabang and Port Blair.

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Post #: 936
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/6/2011 2:54:57 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/9/42
 
Activity all over the map, which certainly makes for a tense and rapidly developing situation...

NoPac:  Large enemy TF, apparently transports, nearing Onnekotan Jima, with a variety of combat TFs nearby.  Surprisingly, the enemey carriers retired just when they had gotten into the hen house.  This is evidence - not proof mind you - that Steve is unsure whether I have carriers in theater.  He had two crippled CLs and a variety of transports TFs in his sights but didn't close for the kill.

SoPac:  The large enemy amphibious TF is one hex from Pago Pago.  SigInt reports it includes 20th Engineering Regiment.  This will be interesting simply because of the coast defense guns.  The Allies have 137 AV, three forts, eight 6" guns, six 5" guns, eight 155mm guns, and a couple of 3" guns.  Neither of my previous opponents went for Pago Pago, so this may be the first chance I've had to see how effective is Allied coastal defense.  I'm also interetsed in seeing whether Steve allocated any cruisers, battlewagons, or carriers to this force.  The allocation of strength here and in NoPac would be important news for the DEI defense.

Bay of Bengal:  Surprising SigInt that 56th Infantry Regiment is aboard a maru bound for Port Blair.  To my way of thinking, Port Blair is still in Allied dominated waters since the Allies just reclaimed Sabang and Langsa.  The base is defended by 120 AV behind three forts.  An IJ three-DD TF has been raiding to the south, sank a xAK, but then ran into an RN two-BB TF.  The Japanese lost a DD in that skirmish.  So, Steve knows the Allies are present in strength, but he probably isn't aware that CVs Ent and York are on patrol just south of Sumatra.  I have to assume that Steve might have been able to slip his own carriers through the Malacca Straights unsighted, so I can't rush off pell-mell yet.  I'm reconfiguring my picket ship line and I've sent a PBY squadron to Port Blair.  I am willing to commit my carriers since holding Port Blair is critical to Allied plans to invade Malaya and Burma. 

Reading Tea Leaves:  That Steve seemingly is willing to try to force his way into the Bay of Bengal, added to his previous violent reaction to the fall of Sabang, is most interesting.  You would think all his focus would be on Java (easy pickings for him) and Sumatra (a major problem for him), but instead it's as if he wants to isolate Sumatra and make a move on India.  :)

Allied Carriers:  Lex and Sara will be available at Colombo in four days, where Formidable is stationed.  Hornet is five days out of Capetown.  Indomitable and Hermes are on station south of Padang.

Sumatra Garrison:  Here's more information about the Allied MLR, including info about CD and AA:

Palembang:  1436 AV, 4.76 forts, 2852 support (2474 required), one American CD unit (eight 155mm guns), seven AA units totaling 115 3.7" guns.

Oosthaven:  1372 AV, 3.82 forts, 1728 support (2008 required, so need to bump this up), three CD units with a total of six 6" guns, ten 120mm, and six 75mm.

Benkolen:  637 AV, 3.46 fortsm 1468 support (1102 required), one CD with four 150mm and six 75mm guns.

Political Points:  The lack of PP continues to be the biggest problem the Allies have in the game.  I'll buy 27th USA Division with 1500 PP tomorrow.  Accumulating that total has prevented me from spending 300 PP to buy two Australian CD units waiting at Perth for deployment to Sumatra.  I need about 500 PP to buy some Canadian units to hit Amchitka Island (not a priority at the moment), and I probably need about 750 AV to round out the units prepping for various points in the Pacific.  If I had an abundance of PP, I'd buy Indian divisions and use them for the Malaya invasion, or I'd send them overland through the jungles to Burma.  Managing PP is a terrific challenge.

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Post #: 937
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/6/2011 3:20:46 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		If he does got for Pt. Blair, I really do think you'll give him quite the bloody nose - especially if he isn't committing many carriers in support (given what he sent up north - which looks like at least a Carrier Division).

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Post #: 938
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/6/2011 3:42:31 PM   
Miller


Posts: 2226
Joined: 9/14/2004
From: Ashington, England.
Status: offline 		I cannot find any worthwhile reason for his invasion of PP considering the position of the game elesewhere.

One other thing, if he has split up the KB then that is another accident waiting to happen........

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Post #: 939
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/6/2011 4:27:38 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Oil:  Japan took Balikpan a month ago and Tarakan within the week.  Miri, Brunei, Samarinda, Palembang and Java are still in Allied hands.

Japanese Intentions:  As Paullus99 notes, the use of IJ carriers in NoPac is an allocation of force worth noting.  That combined with the sudden appearance of a major IJ amphibious group heading for Samoa - at least that's my initial assessment - is quite a commitment by Japan.

Allied Reaction:  Cribtop HQ...darn it, I keep making that mistake...Excuse me, Canoerebel HQ, expected Japan to commit carriers to NoPac following the invasions of Onnekotan and Paramushiro.  Now the Allies have to make use of the lack of these IJ forces in the DEI.  I'm now almost certian to use the PP to buy 27th USA Div. in two days.  A new Brit division has begun it's arrival on the map (the first brigade is on its way to Colombo).  The Allies are mulling over four operations.  The following list is from most likely to least likely:

Invasion of Malaya/Burma:  Unbelievably, the Allies stil hold Tavoy and the base to the south (Steve's failure to attend to details like proper mopping up is one of the things I had in mind during yesterday's discussion).  The Allies could air transport in a base force to provide CAP, use the carriers to provide additional CAP, and land roughly two divisions that could then move north to isolate Japan's weak Burma army.  There's a very good chance Steve doesn't have more than about 450 AV in Burma, so the Allies could possibly reclaim Rangoon, which would be a major blow to a Japan already facing a protracted campaign in Sumatra requiring all of its resources.  Also, I like this because if it somehow turns sour, the Allied divisions can make their way back to friendly lines by cross-country marching.

Reinforce Sumatra:  This has some allure because Japan is paying a heckuva lot of attention to western Sumatra, as expected and hoped.  It's pretty clear that Steve's post-Singapore plan relied upon Japan holding these bases, so that the Allied invasion of Sabang created a crisis.  There would be some benefit to augmenting the Allied force in Sumatra.  If the KB or a fair part of it is far away, the Allies intend to do everything possible to make Fortress Palembang permanent.  I wouldn't mind throwing everything into a combined land/sea/air campaign if the enemy has weakened its own forces to pursue objectives in the distant Pacific.

Invade Denpassar or Koepang:  This idea has lost most of its appeal as I think Japan would ingore the invasions and attend to them later.  Neither gives the Allies the kind of position of strength on which they can build and wage war like Sumatra and Burma/Malaya do.


The amazing thing to me is where is the Japanese AF? In my scen #2 game, I was just buried under Japanese LBA. With only 35 p40s a month and a low supply of the pitiful hurricanes, a simple attrition war vs your fighters would certainly help him put a stop to all of your offensive activity. Perhaps the oil situation is preventing him from ramping up production. In my scen #2 campaign I have had a 3-2 kill advantage for most of the war (many more op losses for Japan) but still am facing a powerful Japanese air force at the end of 1943 while my fighter pools are virtually empty. Frankly, in 1942 I was unable to contest Japanese LBA in any theater for more than a week without running critically short of fighters. I don't think enough Japanese players focus on this. That is, they are too sensitive about losing Japanese planes and pilots. A Japanese player should start grinding on the Allied air force from day one and keep grinding. Two months of heavy air combat will just about exhaust the Allied air force. If you have no height restrictions in your game, then high level sweeps will just murder 1st generation Allied fighters.

This is not time for him to be timid. He is on the verge of losing control of this game in early 1942.




< Message edited by crsutton -- 6/6/2011 4:41:47 PM >

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Post #: 940
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/6/2011 4:32:40 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Thanks as always for interesting comments.  My thoughts:

I agree that Pago Pago is an exercise in expending critical resources in an area that isn't critical.  I can only imagine that Steve might still be sticking to an original game plan to pick up high-value victory point destinations in the Pacific - Pago Pago, Suva, Nadi, and Noumea are his and he's had Auckland in his sights - as part of a way of cobbling together a chance at auto victory.  It still doesn't make sense to be working way over there at this point, but there isn't any other reason.

The Allies have been winning the air war to date.  Steve hasn't pressed very hard.  He took some hard hits in ambushes at Singapore, and that showed that he wasn't willing to stomach those kinds of losses.  Right now, Japan has lost about 300 aircraft more than the Allies, which I too think is pretty unusual for Scenario Two in early 1942.  Now, the Allies have somewhat decent pilots in the DEI, though I did just have to withdraw two good Hurricane squadrons, drat it.

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Post #: 941
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/6/2011 4:45:48 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

[
Political Points:  The lack of PP continues to be the biggest problem the Allies have in the game.  I'll buy 27th USA Division with 1500 PP tomorrow.  Accumulating that total has prevented me from spending 300 PP to buy two Australian CD units waiting at Perth for deployment to Sumatra.  I need about 500 PP to buy some Canadian units to hit Amchitka Island (not a priority at the moment), and I probably need about 750 AV to round out the units prepping for various points in the Pacific.  If I had an abundance of PP, I'd buy Indian divisions and use them for the Malaya invasion, or I'd send them overland through the jungles to Burma.  Managing PP is a terrific challenge.



I should note that as 1944 rolls around in my campaign, I am still very short of PP points. I never have enough to fully do what I want. I don't know about the Japanese side but for the Allies they have got this just about spot on. You are never starved for PPs but never seem to have enough. A very good balance.

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Post #: 942
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/6/2011 5:51:09 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

The amazing thing to me is where is the Japanese AF? In my scen #2 game, I was just buried under Japanese LBA. With only 35 p40s a month and a low supply of the pitiful hurricanes, a simple attrition war vs your fighters would certainly help him put a stop to all of your offensive activity. Perhaps the oil situation is preventing him from ramping up production. In my scen #2 campaign I have had a 3-2 kill advantage for most of the war (many more op losses for Japan) but still am facing a powerful Japanese air force at the end of 1943 while my fighter pools are virtually empty. Frankly, in 1942 I was unable to contest Japanese LBA in any theater for more than a week without running critically short of fighters. I don't think enough Japanese players focus on this. That is, they are too sensitive about losing Japanese planes and pilots. A Japanese player should start grinding on the Allied air force from day one and keep grinding. Two months of heavy air combat will just about exhaust the Allied air force. If you have no height restrictions in your game, then high level sweeps will just murder 1st generation Allied fighters.


I just began my first Japanese GC last week using scenario 2 against the AI to get a feel for playing the dark side. What I found interesting about pilots was that there are an awful lot of very good ones at the start, but almost none in the reserve pools. Some began appearing in the first week and I was able to replace some losses and fill out squads, but even standing down all Nates and Claudes to train until I can build Oscars and Zeros to replace them, I still am dragging the bottom of the barrel for trained reserve pilots. Not sure if this is normal or if there is just something I'm missing.

It's now Dec 26 and I have about 5 trained fighter pilots in both the IJA and IJN reserve pools.

Because of this I have been extremely careful when using air power, at least until my first training crop is ready, (probably mid January). If I were Chez and I faced the massed strength of all Allied fighters in the region at Singers, I guess I might have backed down for a bit too thinking overwhelming force would be on its way soon.

It seems the biggest problem though is not having the proper bases to extend air power toward Sumatra and Java. Not getting Sinkawang or Kuching to start really hurt.

By now though, you're completely right. He should be dominating the skies just due to the build/replacement rates of planes vs that of the Allies.

On another air note, CR, do you have many 4Es in the region? And if so, are they aimed at Burma from India, or sitting on Sumatra ready to defend?

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Post #: 943
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/6/2011 6:00:23 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I moved the American B-17s from Sumatra, where they've spent most of the game, to Colombo, about a week ago.  That freed up some airfield capacity, but keeps them close at hand.  I use them from time to time - most recently on a port raid vs. Balikpan.

American Marauders are based in northeastern India, from whence they hit a Japanese regiment at Mandalay regularly.

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Post #: 944
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/6/2011 7:27:29 PM   
Miller


Posts: 2226
Joined: 9/14/2004
From: Ashington, England.
Status: offline 		In my recently started scn 2 game playing as the Japs it is now one month in and my Zeros and Oscars have shot all the Allied fighters out of the skies over the PI and Malaya/Sumatra/Java at a ratio of around 10:1, Sweep, sweep and more sweep......that is all that is needed, and we have a HR of max 29000' so no cheesy max altitude sweeps needed, 15k has been more than adequate.

It has been so one sided that my opponent has basically stood down all his fighters (or has none to put into the air) since the first two weeks of the game. Any Jap player who is struggling to get 2:1 or better in early A2A combat is not managing their planes and/or pilots properly.

I'm guessing Chez was using the escort rather than sweep mission when attacking Singapore, we all know escorts seem to fair worse in AE than in real life. Sweep, sweep then sweep again, then sweep and send in the bombers with escorts in the PM phase of the game........

< Message edited by Miller -- 6/6/2011 7:33:43 PM >

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Post #: 945
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/6/2011 8:04:54 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Well, for goodness sake, don't anybody alert Chez!

My experience as the Allied commander in Scenario Two usually resembles what you are describing, Paul.  It is most refreshing to actually have a chance in a-2-a combat in 1942.  And most necessary to my Fortress Palembang strategy, though I still expect Japanese massed attacks to eventually descend and wreak havoc.

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Post #: 946
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/6/2011 8:58:00 PM   
bradfordkay

 

Posts: 8683
Joined: 3/24/2002
From: Olympia, WA
Status: offline 		He told me that the escort was a mistake. The squadrons ordered to sweep didn't fly, leaving the rest to get slaughtered.

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Post #: 947
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/6/2011 10:06:47 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

The amazing thing to me is where is the Japanese AF? In my scen #2 game, I was just buried under Japanese LBA. With only 35 p40s a month and a low supply of the pitiful hurricanes, a simple attrition war vs your fighters would certainly help him put a stop to all of your offensive activity. Perhaps the oil situation is preventing him from ramping up production. In my scen #2 campaign I have had a 3-2 kill advantage for most of the war (many more op losses for Japan) but still am facing a powerful Japanese air force at the end of 1943 while my fighter pools are virtually empty. Frankly, in 1942 I was unable to contest Japanese LBA in any theater for more than a week without running critically short of fighters. I don't think enough Japanese players focus on this. That is, they are too sensitive about losing Japanese planes and pilots. A Japanese player should start grinding on the Allied air force from day one and keep grinding. Two months of heavy air combat will just about exhaust the Allied air force. If you have no height restrictions in your game, then high level sweeps will just murder 1st generation Allied fighters.


I just began my first Japanese GC last week using scenario 2 against the AI to get a feel for playing the dark side. What I found interesting about pilots was that there are an awful lot of very good ones at the start, but almost none in the reserve pools. Some began appearing in the first week and I was able to replace some losses and fill out squads, but even standing down all Nates and Claudes to train until I can build Oscars and Zeros to replace them, I still am dragging the bottom of the barrel for trained reserve pilots. Not sure if this is normal or if there is just something I'm missing.

It's now Dec 26 and I have about 5 trained fighter pilots in both the IJA and IJN reserve pools.

Because of this I have been extremely careful when using air power, at least until my first training crop is ready, (probably mid January). If I were Chez and I faced the massed strength of all Allied fighters in the region at Singers, I guess I might have backed down for a bit too thinking overwhelming force would be on its way soon.

It seems the biggest problem though is not having the proper bases to extend air power toward Sumatra and Java. Not getting Sinkawang or Kuching to start really hurt.

By now though, you're completely right. He should be dominating the skies just due to the build/replacement rates of planes vs that of the Allies.

On another air note, CR, do you have many 4Es in the region? And if so, are they aimed at Burma from India, or sitting on Sumatra ready to defend?



You might be a little thin in pilots but you will have so many reserve squadrons that you will actually be able to train more pilots faster than the Allies. I had a horrible time training pilots in the early months because I needed so many squadrons on the front line and had no aircraft to fill out all of my rear squadrons as I was just simply out of planes. You can train pilots with no planes but it is very slow. This is another good reason why the Japanese player should go hard at the Allied air. You not only keep his air weak but you really hurt his ability to train pilots as well. This game is all about the initiative Once the Japanese player gives over the initiative then there in little chance he will ever get it back. Funny how playing one side teaches you so much about the other....

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Post #: 948
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/7/2011 10:07:19 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

You might be a little thin in pilots but you will have so many reserve squadrons that you will actually be able to train more pilots faster than the Allies. I had a horrible time training pilots in the early months because I needed so many squadrons on the front line and had no aircraft to fill out all of my rear squadrons as I was just simply out of planes. You can train pilots with no planes but it is very slow. This is another good reason why the Japanese player should go hard at the Allied air. You not only keep his air weak but you really hurt his ability to train pilots as well. This game is all about the initiative Once the Japanese player gives over the initiative then there in little chance he will ever get it back. Funny how playing one side teaches you so much about the other....


Getting back to chess for a minute, the Japanese player almost HAS to play an attacking opening, like a King's Gambit. Sacrifice material for speed. Initiative is all important. It is seemingly relatively easy, even with a few stabbing Surface raids by the AI, and some nasty shore batteries at Tarakan, to get most of Borneo, several small airbases on the way to Ambon, and have all of those advances guarded by a surface TF. I've barely needed the IJA air yet. I know this would be so much harder against a player of CRs caliber, but still makes me wonder more about this game and how it got to this point.

< Message edited by obvert -- 6/7/2011 11:44:27 AM >

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Post #: 949
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/7/2011 4:10:46 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		4/10/42
 
Pago Pago:  Japanese D-Day begins at Pago Pago.  American shore guns sink two xAP, damage another xAP, and damage two CL and two DD.  Overall, the enemy lost 40 squads and had others disrupted.  Japan has two infantry regiments, and armored unit, and combat engineers.  Through the first day of landings, raw IJ AV is about 250, Allies about 140.  Steve may have brought just enough to handle things, depending up the level of disruption his force sufferered.  No sign of enemy capital ships or carriers, which is something to keep in mind for the future (that Steve is comfortable moving without protection deep in Indian country in the Pacific).

KB:  Patrols report three IJN fleet carriers just NE of Balikpan with 69 fighters, 178 bombers, 86 auxillary.  That sounds like the real thing.  Heading reported as NE, which seems unlikely as that would take them away from the action.  I'd like to get another look at this TF tomorrow (the Allies still have patrols operating out of Jesselton and Zamboanga, with a Kingfisher squadron just moved to Dadjangas (mopping up rear bases to preven the Allies from this kiind of snooping should be a high priority).  That the KB is here, with other carriers in NoPac, tells me that the Allied carriers should be able to handle whatever Steve mighthave left to commit to the Bay of Bengal.  This is important information.

NoPac:  I think an enemy invasion force will begin landing at Onnekotan Jima tomorrow, protected by a large contingent of combat ships and some carriers.  Allied BBs are to the northeast, undetected, but I'm not committing them right now.

China:  The Chinese army at Kukong retired to the north, where enemy bombers will plague them for another hex or two until they draw within range of the AVG squadron.  The Chinese armies on the move from the forests north of Sian are nearing the Japanese positions at Loyang and Chengchow.  It appears this region is lightly guarded, so we'll see what can be done.  The objective is to find and destroy enemy infantry units.

Bay of Bengal:  More SigInt that 56th Infantry Regiment is aboard a maru bound for Port Blair.  I expected Steve to cancel this op after his DDs encountered two RN BBs yesterday.  Surely he can't do a Pago Pago-type operation in the Bay of Bengal?  But the Allies can't risk losing Port Blair at this point, so Enterprise and Yorktown are moving to be in position to strike if needed.  (Lex and Sara will be ready at Colombo in three days.)  Meanwhile, the Allies spent 1500 AV to buy 27th USA Div. which is boarding transports at Capetown.  This forms the core of the Malaya/Burma invasion force, assuming conditions are still advantageous when they arrive in theater in three weeks.

Sumatra:  An enemy TF is nearing Medan.  Ent and York are in place to strike there in two days.  Revealing the Allied carriers will be worth it if the Allies can really whack a major IJ transport TF, thus throwing the enemy off balance again.  Now that 27th Div. has bee paid for, the next priority is to purchase the two Aussie CD units at Perth - 300 PP needed, so this can be done in about a week.  No sign of imminent IJ move on Sumatra or Java.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 6/7/2011 4:12:40 PM >

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 950
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/7/2011 4:43:25 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		Great moves on your part - strike & fade, strike & fade - it'll drive your opponent crazy. If you can keep making him bleed for every step forward, it'll completely kill any momentum he has left.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 951
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/7/2011 6:47:03 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Patrol reports of KB in Makassar Straits and recent Japanese carrier activity in the Kuriles suggests that the enemy doesn't have carriers in the immediate vicinity of Sumatra and the Bay of Bengal, which gives the Allied carriers more freedom to act.




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Post #: 952
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/7/2011 6:49:08 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Enterprise, Yorktown, Indomitable and Hermes are currently on patrol south of Sumatra, but moving NE (NW on a real map) to prevent enemy move on Port Blair and to possibly strike at enemy shipping in the Malacca Strait.

Lexington and Saratoga finish upgrading at Colombo in three days. Formidable is also at Colombo.

Hornet will arrive at Capetown in three or four days.




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Post #: 953
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/7/2011 6:51:45 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Unless the situation changes for the worse over coming weeks, the Allies plan to use 27th USA Div. to form the core of an army that will land in northwestern Malaya or southeastern Burma, to reclaim Moulmein, Pegu, and Rangoon, and to destroy the enemy army.

Allied HQ believes the enemy army is still small (450 AV) since the only way to reach theater is via yellow trails and jungle hexes.

Chinese troops will participate in this battle if things look promising enough to warrant expenditure of political points to free them for use.




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Post #: 954
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/7/2011 7:12:52 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		Might it not be more beneficial to land in Malaysia opposite northern Sumatra? You can support that more easily from Sumatra and reinforce it more easily with fast transports from Palembang or Northern Sumatra. I'd be worried about your ability to maintain a holding in southern Burma in the face of Netties to be honest.

Against others I'd also be worried about counter-landings behind you when you tried to isolate his inland army in Burma.

What, precisely, do you have available for this invasion beyond the 27th?

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 955
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/7/2011 7:32:26 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The Allies will have the equivalent of two divisions:  27th US Div., two UK brigades, and some Indian units.  That would be the amphibious element.  In addition, there would be the 250 AV currently at Schewbo and three Chinese units on the border.

I'm curious why you think an invasion further down the Malay peninsula would be more effective and less risky for the ground units - it's closer to heavy enemy air concentrations that should get heavier in coming weeks, and ground units that land down the peninsula will be stuck right there, whereas units that go into Burma will have mutliple routes of retreat should that become desirable.  And it's unlikely the Japanese navy can interfere unless things change markedly.  Right now the Bay of Bengal is dominated by the Allies.  To change that, Steve needs to take Port Blair or put the KB on station there.

I don't think he can post a strong airforce at Rangoon.  His only means of supply has been through the jungle, which should be very ineffecient, right?  I haven't see any indications of air activity from Rangoon, nor has he attempted to fly CAP over his forward regiment, which has been getting hit by unescorted Marauders for weeks.  I''ll check the main bases out by recon just prior to the operation going into effect, but at this point the big air threat will be Bangkok.

Doesn't Burma offer much more?  Steve would need a mammoth army with all available naval and air support, which would cripple any effort to deal with Sumatra.  So he can only focus on the one or the other at a time.  It is also quite likely that a lodgement in Burma now would guarantee that the Allies would hold one of the two - if not both - come autumn of 1942.  And by then the Allies could send ground units across the border from Akyab, thus essentially guaranteeing their hold on Burma.

As I see it, Burma creates another crisis on the magnitude of the Kuriles or even greater, while an invasion of midlde Malaya could be ignored or dealt with readily.

My evaluation is based upon the situation remaining similarly advantageous by the time 27th Div. is on the scene.  Things may change, but at the moment Burma strikes me as offering the Allies more advantages at lower risk.

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 956
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/7/2011 10:55:34 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		On another subject there is some rationale from Chez' viewpoint in grabbing Port Blair. In his mind, he is countering your Sabang invasion quickly, seeking to base Netties there and isolate you, I'd wager. Thus he may really be going for it. In which case you are about to pound him.

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Post #: 957
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/7/2011 11:50:22 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline 		I fear he'll continue to do what has been a losing strategy so far, and that is continue to mount operations piecemeal and get defeated in detail. He's trying to put out too many fires at once now and not dealing with any of them adequately. As long as he tries to put the fires out with the glass at hand, rather than wait to fill a bucket and douse each fire in turn, I think he'll be in a position to get clobbered more often than not. That's a credit to your strategy this game Canoerebel and your aggressiveness has really paid off in this particular matchup.

I don't understand his focus in the S.E. Pacific. He may take Pago Pago, but meanwhile he's losing the war in Sumatra. If it's an attempt to isolate the LOC to Australia, I simply don't see the merit in it. You can simply transit everything through Panama and Capetown as you are already doing. I think any offensive that doesn't address his immediate concerns of securing his economic longevity and turning the tables in Sumatra is only going to hasten his demise. I've never played scenario two, but from what I do understand of it, he should be able to direct the aditional units he has to much more effective use.

Now, before I sound like I'm horse whipping the poor fellow, I think if I was in his shoes I'd be having as much difficulty in dealing with things as he is. Sometimes, it's very easy to lose focus and then spiral completely out of control. I think he has the time to rectify his situation, but that means he has to divert his full attention to it. Any plans he had of global conquest are out the window, it's time to focus on the not so exciting task of dealing with Sumatra first. We all know as kids we had to eat the brussel sprouts before getting to the exciting big fruit filled piece of pie. It's time for him to eat his veggies.

My thought is the TF is heading to reinforce Medan. With your willingness to interdict his invasion convoys, I just can't see him risking another one on a shoestring operation to Port Blair without adequate support. Port Blair won't give him any better air coverage than what Malaya can already provide. Longer range yes, but how will he support air operations from Port Blair when his entire flank is currently open to attack from your position at Sabang? He's going to need an air HQ and lots of supply to keep Port Blair operational if he even succeeds in getting there in one piece. I think it imperative he kick you out of Northern Sumatra ASAP, landing at Medan is a definite possibility.

Whatever happens, it's going to be interesting to watch.

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 6/7/2011 11:51:36 PM >

(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 958
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/8/2011 12:25:49 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Brussel Sprouts, yuck!

FWIW, Sqz, I agree with you. However, it's possible Chez may see grabbing Port Blair as a way to counter Sabang (which is great for CR as Sabang was a bit of a ruse invasion all along) by isolating it. Of course, the SigInt could be wrong, but if it's not, those CV flyboys are going to feast. In fact, even if Chez is reinforcing Medan, they could still do so if they choose.


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Post #: 959
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 6/8/2011 1:01:05 AM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline 		If you have a spare PBY squadron or two, you can transport to Port Blair from Chittagong. An infantry brigade or a BF would help out. Then, you can go for Tavoy if opportunity presents itself later. As Nemo showed in his WITP game vs Damian, you can more significant troops using PBYs.

(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 960
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