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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/10/2011 5:46:21 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The map has become very ocmplicated with alot of wheels in motion. I like the Allied position, but I'm not certain I made the rights calls.

1. I might have been better off stripping the Allied carriers of air to base the squadroms on Java. I decided not to do so because the bases are short of supply. I didn't want to end up with a bunch of disabled aircraft at this moment, with enemy CVs in view.

2. I debated the wisdom of committing my carriers against this Java invasion force. I decided to do so because the Allied carrers can still retire to the west if needed (or re-base squadrons to Sumatra if needed). This was a real iffy judgment call, but I elected to strike at what seems like a powerful and exposed spearhead.

3. The Moulmein invasion, if successful, is fairly low risk (as Princep points out) but offers a high reward - threatening Japan's position in Burma just as Steve is trying to focus on the DEI. The Japanese ar3e weak, dispersed, and low on supply in Burma, so there is a possibility that the Allies can conquer the country, which would certainly be a blow to Japan. THe Allies haven't committed their major amphibious troops yet, so there is still the opportunity to scrub the oepration for another day or two if things don't look right.

4. The Allies may or may not commit their carriers to the defense of Sumatra when the enemy invasion comes. I will do so if it permits me to stand off at a good distance and strike. I won't do so if it's advantageous to base the aircraft on land.

5. Vettim is right - Steve will suddenly have multiple new threats right while he's trying to handle a major operation of his own. We have the situation on Sumatra, the situations in China, and the situation in the Kuriles. Now, he's about to face a new situation in Burma and (hopefully) a new equation at Pago Pago. Finally, he'll face a situation in the Gilberts in a month or less. That's alot of crises to face right when he's trying to manage his own major crisis.

(in reply to madflava13)
Post #: 1171
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/10/2011 6:26:58 PM   
Nemo121


Posts: 5821
Joined: 2/6/2004
Status: offline 		Partial committment of the reserve is the worst of both worlds....

If you commit part of the main reserve you will find that:
a) you are committing it to a small-time situation ( if the situation were serious it would warrant the entire reserve ).

b) you are piecemealing out your reserve such that when it comes time for the decisive committment you've committed a large minority ( or even a majority ) of the reserve to strategically non-decisive operations and no longer have sufficient mass to achieve the outcome required in the strategically decisive operation.

I'm not sure the advice here is the best way to go about it. IMO. I don't think it'll make a difference as Steve is so rattled and so far behind the OODA cycle but, IMO, Canoerebel should no longer be focussed on beating Steve, he should be focussed on using the rest of this game to practice the phasing of operations, maskirovka and suchlike in preparation for his next round of games - for which he should, IMO, really sift the applicants in order to ensure a stringent test which pushed him to improve further.

So, don't worry about defeating Steve now. That's already done and has been done for several months ( and I've said as much in this AAR about 3 game months ago ). Focus on playing as close to the perfect game as possible. Right now the single largest question you face is whether or not to commit the reserve and under what circumstances you'll commit it. The reserve should never be expended unless it will be strategically decisive. This allows you to strike with the reserve when it won't be expended ( IOW when it won't take many losses ) in order to kill isolated enemy units but still makes you maintain the discipline not to waste its combat power unless it is strategically decisive.

lastly, what is the narrative you are creating by hitting those amphibious ships and their escorts? Have you considered the narrative you are creating? Are you seeking to shape that narrative?


Don't beat yourself up re: the right calls. It seems you've done pretty well up until now. I am just a bit puzzled regarding the framework within which you view your CV force and whether or not you have a predetermined framework governing their committment to battle or are you just taking opportunities as they present themselves - it will probably work fine in this game but I can think of 6 to 10 players on this forum who would use that small amount of laxity to ambush your CVs by presenting opportunities which would prove fatal to you should you grasp them.... So I amn't bothered by the committment in this game but by the theoretical framework underlying it ( and/or its absence ).

< Message edited by Nemo121 -- 7/10/2011 7:45:31 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/11/2011 1:38:27 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I'm still worried about defeating Steve.  There are still scenarios in which he could clobber the Allies bad enough to set them back a long time.  I agree that it's unlikely, but it isn't impossible.  Sumatra is the key.

I don't have a predetermined trigger for committing my carriers, though a strong argument (that I waged in my own mind) can be made that this wasn't the right time and place.  I finally chose to do so for a mutlitude of complicated interacting reasons including:  (1) the KB being in the South China Sea, far away and thus not able to ambush; (2) the invasion of Java suggests that Steve is going to attend to that island first and that a major invasion of Palembang, Oosthaven, or Benkolen is not going to happen short term; (3) another whacking of a big Japanese force will again make Steve think long and hard about his options, further slowing him down; (4) he's bleeding troop transports which will make complicate his ability to engage in the massive kind of invasion that would succeed against one of those three bases; (5) the Allied carrier-based squadrons can immediately relocate to the well-supplied major Allied airfields at Benkolen, Oosthaven, and Palembang.

To my way of thinking, the Allies are throwing punches against a staggering enemy, keeping him off balance and increasing the likelihood that he will make mistakes and ultimately fall victim to a TKO.  I guess if I have a narrative, that would be it.

One thing I forgot to mention earlier - it has occurred to me that Steve might try an amphibious assault against Djambi using xAKL - assuming those ships can go up small rivers, which I believe they can.  Djambi is a small base with big airfeild potential just two or three hexes west of Palembang.  When I open the next turn file in a few minutes I'll anxiously look for any signs that such a move might be imminent.  I have 100 AV at Djambi behind three forts, but she might use more -say 200 or so AV.

I'm also toying with the idea of reinforcing western Java a bit (Vettim will like that) to force Steve to commit more troops to Java.  Not sure about that - I'd say it's unlikely since the Allies don't have the PP to spend and since they have so many other operations ongoing.  I can't do everything that I'd like to do - and which would undoubtedly be effective. 

Finally, you'll note I didn't commit my carriers until I knew the precise location of the KB.  So I don't think the Allied actions here are some kind of sign that I might be tricked into an ambush. 

(in reply to Nemo121)
Post #: 1173
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/11/2011 3:11:49 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/12/42
 
So very much going on.  The odds are the next month will tell the tale of the war.  The opening round today was hot, with the Allies scoring some licks but not emerging unscathed.  Tomorrow promises more.

Java:  The Allied carriers closed to within six hexes of Loembajang, which was fine for SBD range, but not for Allied fighters.  So my divebombers and a few torpedo aircraft went in mostly unescorted and got chewed up pretty badly.  On the day the Allies lost about 70 SBDs and a few dozen other assorted makes and models.  In return, the Allies sank or badly damaged six xAP, four AMC, one LSD, one APD, one xAK, and one E.  Also, CA Mogami took a 500 pounder that somehow pentrated and resulted in a "critical hit" message.  By my count, the Japanese lost 66 infantry squads, 125 non-combat, and 11 engineer.  I hope the AMCs hurt if nothing else does.  The Japanese took Loembajang, their first base on Java.

Carriers:  The KB is located just north of Singkawang/Kuching - meaning it moved due east last turn.  I'm not sure what its doing there or where its going, though unti proven wrong I will assume a major invasion of eastern Sumatra or western Java might be imminent.  The Allied carrires will steam west, passing just south of Christmas Island.  Most of the depleted SBD squadrons relocated to Oosthaven and replaced all missing bombers.  Mission sorties range from 75% to 90%.  So, the Allied carriers scored a lick, but the argument that it wasn't worth it might prevail (a nod to Nemo).

Bay of Bengal:  The U.S. Army battalion took Moulmein.  To my surprise, the airfield is shut down due to partisan damage (Steve didn't have the base garrisoned).  I didn't factor that into my equation!  No enemy air sortied and I think Steve has basing and supply problems, so I'm going ahead with the reinforcement landings.  I've based a Hurricane squadron there hoping it might be able to fly some missions.  Again, my moves here could be called into question.

China:  The Chinese will make three attacks tomorrow:  The first near Loyang should blow through two IJ units of unkown strength; the second near Changsha should demolish four IJ units that will include a few divisions; the third across a river into a town east of Kukong, garrisoned by four units, but probably not enough to hold off a 4,000-AV army.

NoPac:  Quiet at the moment.

SoPac:  The "absolute" orders issued to my transports seemed to work - three small TFs will arrive tonight, with three more in two days.  These are bringing engineers, infantry, and tanks.  The port is protected by a two-CA TF.  Enemy ships, probably carrying reinforcements, are on the way, but I think at least four days out.  In one more day the Allies will have a much stronger defense on Pago Pago.  I think this is an important contest - not to the Allies, but for Japan.  A repulse here after expending so much time and effort would be a seriouos blow.

Assessment:  While the Allied carrier operation was costly, I think it was successful and will have measurable long-term benefits.  I'm more concerned about the decision to reinforce Moulmein "naked."  That's the first thing I'll look at when I get the next turn back.  But it's pretty exciting to have such hot action going on all over the map, with the Allies controlling the tempo in most.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1174
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/11/2011 5:15:10 AM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3890
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline 		Bottom line is you replaced the lost SBDs. Can you replace the pilots? Have you thought about how many more times can you replace both?

Really fun to see things heating up so much!

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/11/2011 8:34:57 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		You can replace both SBD & pilots, can Steve replace those lost ships.


I second what Vettim said!!


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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/11/2011 12:02:30 PM   
Blackhorse


Posts: 1983
Joined: 8/20/2000
From: Eastern US
Status: offline
quote:

One thing I forgot to mention earlier - it has occurred to me that Steve might try an amphibious assault against Djambi using xAKL - assuming those ships can go up small rivers, which I believe they can.


They cannot.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1177
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/11/2011 3:07:22 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/13/42
 
Carriers in the DEI:  Most, but not all, of the IJA carrier TFs are nearing Ketapang, a vacant base on Borneo's south coast.  The other major carrier TF is west of Kuching.  The Allied carriers are well south of Java and may swing wide around Cocos Island on a generally west heading.  I think, but I'm not absolutely positive, that Steve may be landing at Ketapang under massive cover (in which case he's choosing security but I'm gaining time).  Alternatively, he's going to make a big landing on Java's north coast.  Either of those suits me.  I don't think he's coming for Oosthaven, though that's a small possibility.  I don't think there's any way he would send his carriers through the Sunda Straits, but just on the merest chance I'm routing my carriers a bit south to remain safe.

Sumatra:  Blackhorse, is see that you're right, thanks.  Palembang is now a level seven airfield with forts at 5.49 and increasing more rapidly now that the airfield is maxed out.  Oosthaven will go to level nine airfield in about 45 days - that will be a major development as then there won't be any basing limits.  The big American CD unit begins unloading at Oosthaven tonight.  There's danger, here, due to the proxomity of enemy capital ships.  Alot of IJ subs are operating in the area, with mixed results (some ships torpedoed, some subs sunk).  Steve has also mined Oosthaven.  He's doing his best to attend to this key port, but talk about closing the barn door after the horses have left....

Burma:  Things went much better than I could have hoped for.  Weak enemy air attacks didn't score any hits.  The big Allied transport TFs arrived and begin unloading tonight.  I'm guessing the Allies will have 500 AV ashore tomorrow. Also, the US Army battalion held against a Japanese para-assault.  I like the fact that Steve was concerned enough to try that and failed.  He'll probably try again tomorrow.  The only downside is that he'll know just how much he's facing in this sector.

China:  Three major Chinese attacks succeed - ripping the already depleted 104th Division, demolishing a full-strength IJA regiment, and driving back with moderate losses to fresh IJA brigades.  On the day, the Japanese lost at least 500 squads.

NoPac:  Quiet.  Maryland and Idaho reached the yards at Seattle.  One needs 45 days, the other 75, to repair damage suffered near Paramushiro. The only remaining USN capital ships in NoPac are BB Tennessee and CA Houston.

CenPac:  The Tarawa invasion troops are midway between San Diego and Pearl Harbor.  D-Day in about 21 to 25 days.

SoPac:  Finally...at long, long last...those troop transports actually went into port at Pago Pago and began unloading.  The Allied AV increased from 137 to 183.  The Allies need one more day, maybe two, for this operation to be a total success.  (I also stood down artillery bombardments, so Steve may not be aware that reinforcements have arrived. I believe he has reinforcements on the way, so upon arrival they could get a rude shock). 

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/11/2011 3:10:07 PM >

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Post #: 1178
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/11/2011 6:08:39 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Here's the situation in the DEI.

The Allies have made good on SBDs, but replacing pilots is a bit of a challenge. Three of the four squadrons are in good shape, but I'm going to have to scrape a bit to fill out the fourth, which is currently at half strength.




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 1179
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/11/2011 6:18:31 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The developing situation in Burma.




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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/11/2011 9:37:15 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		In reviewing the map the final time while issuing orders, taking into consideratino everything that's going on, it's pretty clear that Steve is moving very carefully because he's "terrified" of the great weight of Allied air power at Oosthaven and Palemabang (and augmented by carrier air and Batavia).  I'm 99.9% sure his carriers are to provide CAP for an invasion of Ketapang (funny, because he could take the vacant base by paratroop, air transport some base force personnel, land an engineer unit by fast transport, and get a decent airfield operational, thus saving himself the time and fears).  In all likellihood, he's not going to hit eastern Sumatra until he has a mammoth network of airfields in close proximity, includng western Java.  If that assessment is accurate, the Allies have another month or two before the enemy will come.  That puts us into the summer months.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1181
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/12/2011 8:50:29 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/14/42
 
IJN Carriers:  The Japanese carriers, moving in conjunction with what appears to be a massive armada of amphibious ships, slipped by Ketapang and continued on a southeast cuorse.  I don't know what Steve is up to.  Why would he invade the north coast of Java from this direction - by far the more hazardous of the two (he could have slipped into the Java Sea by way of the Makassar Strait with no risk at all).  Moreover, why risk a major invasion at all?  He has 300 AV ashore on the southeastern tip.  That force can easily roll up Java all by itself.  Perhaps Steve is just trying to orchestrate a massive CAP trap to attrit Allied air power.  This is puzzling (but if I heard Steve's explanation I'm sure it would make sense). 

Allied Carriers:  Allied air on Java and Sumatra are reigned in by short range settings.  The Allies carriers are at Cocos Island and heading west.  I'll keep them in the vicinity to draw off air sqadrons if needed, but I plan to rotate the carriers back to Colombo - two at a time - to replenish sorties. 

Java:  A stout TF flagged by CAs Exeter and San Francisco hit the enemy amphibious shipping at Loembajang, jousitng to no great effect with enemy combat ships including Mogami, but also doing serious damage to the Japanese LSD Akitsu Maru and another AMC.  Meanwhile, KXVI got another AMC near Makassar.  I think six IJ AMCs and the one LSD have been sunk or seriously damaged.  I'm hoping that stings since Steve will need big sea lift capacity when he comes for Sumatra.

Burma:  The Allies have landed roughly 75% of the firepower at Moulmein.  The Japanese paratroops didn't attack, so Steve doesn't know exaclty what the Allies have here.  27th Div. a tank regiment, and a Brit brigade will immediately move north to Pegu.  The scouting Burma Army unit just arrived there and found it vacant, so in all likelihood it will fall tomorrow.  The Allied garrison at Schewbo is on the move - it will attack across the river at Mandalay in about four days.  To protect the shiping at Moulmein, the Allies have one RN BB, CA Portland, and a handful of other combat ships.  This move is shaping up nicely.

SoPac:  Most of the Allied troops have come ashore (finally!) at Pago Pago. The AV is now 349, up from 137 two days ago.  Also, a good SeaBee unit came ashore, which will help with fort building (curently at 3.75).  That should be enough to hold off anything but a titanic enemy invasion, and I don't think the enemy can afford such.  I do think Steve has supplies and a few more small units on the way.  An unpleasant surprise awaits them.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1182
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/13/2011 3:04:43 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		5/15/42
 
I recall in my craziest game with John III, the Allies (me) had a massive amphibious armada that sailed slowly from Hawaii to Iwo Jima and then steamed around for awhile before the opportunity was right to strike.  The trip was so protracted that it was dubbed "the magical mystical mystery tour."  That's what Steve seems to be doing in the Java Sea right now...

Java Sea:  The Japanese armada - KB, transports, everything - has continued east in the Java Sea so that it's nearing Banjermasin and not making any obvious feint towards an Allied base.  The only thing I can come up with is that Steve was testing my defenses, though he's gotten very little intel to this point.  Banshees from Oosthaven did sortie to damage/sink an xAP and an xAK.  Since time is gold for the Allies now, I hope the tour continues.

Sumatra:  In retaliation for an ineffective IJ night attack at Palembang a few days ago, B-17s returned the favor and hit Singapore, damaging/sinking an ACM, sub, and xAK.  Sub O-22 sank a sub just east of Singers.  I forgot to mention that IJ subs and mines claimed three Allied minelayers near Oosthaven yesterday - a bit of a blow.  Things are mostly quiet on Sumatra at the moment as the Allies continue to dig an build.

Burma:  Things look good here.  The Burma Army unit took vacant Pegu, and a US tank battalion from Moulmein will arrive there tomorrow or the following day, followed in four or five days by 27th Div., a UK Bde, and artillery and tank destroyers.  (A UK brigade and a US battalion will remain on guard at Moulmein).  The Allies paid 300 PP to buy two small Chinese infantry on the border.  The units, totalling 150 AV, will move on Lashio.  The Burma Army is on the move towards Mandalay from Schwebo and should cross the river to assault in three days.

China:  The Chinese are vectoring units towards three Japanese concentrations - two already defeated and thus very weak; the third a fresh IJA division (40th).

NoPac:  Quiet.

CenPac:  Tarawa invasion TFs are perhaps four days out of Pearl Harbor.

SoPac:  360 AV for the Allies at Pago Pago.  The ships are still unloading supplies and heavy equipment, but most will depart the port in another day or two.

Allied Carriers:  CV Illustrious is on the way from Colombo to patrol south of Sumatra, where she'll join CVs Hornet and Saratoga (in separate TFs).  The other CVs will retire to Colombo to refresh sorties.  I'll set up a chain of carriers to allow carrier squadrons to stage from Colombo to Sumatra if needed.  I don't want to base them there before the carriers depart because the fields are packed.

Summary:  Nemo made a very good point about the Allies committing their reserves and the costs involved.  I'm paying some of that cost now as some carriers and combat ships need to replenish at Colombo, which puts them out of position for at least ten days.  On the other hand, the Allies have been able to attrit Japanese shipping and display a aggressive stance that might further slow Steve down as he contemplates how to deal with Fortress Sumatra.  The vortexes all over the map - DEI and Kuriles and now Burma and (to a lesser extent) Pago Pago have locked up a sizeable percentage of IJ assets.  As a result, Steve doesn't seem to be paying attention to NW Oz or Port Moresby.  Given time to accumulate the needed PP, the Allies will next look to reinforcing these places.  That will be effective if it occurs before Steve wraps up things in the DEI, which I hope is never.

< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 7/13/2011 3:07:43 PM >

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/13/2011 3:17:07 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6750
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline 		If you'd manage to try to get that Armada with a fast SCTF (maybe composed only by cruisers and british destroyers) during a night time engagement i think you'd come up with a wonderfull result...for sure you'll lose your ships but you could tear apart the whole invasion

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1184
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/13/2011 3:25:44 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Steve's alert to that possibility, so there's a 99.5% chance such a mission would fail.  The Allies would have to slip combat ships close enough to strike, but Steve holds bases to each side, meaning his patrols would almost certainly report Allied combat ships at least two days before they could strike.

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Post #: 1185
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/13/2011 3:51:56 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		If he isn't committing to a particular invasion location, my inclination is to say that he's trying to goad you into letting loose with your carriers, LBA and surface forces, particular that on Sumatra, to bleed you in anticipation of an actual invasion later on. Of course, the backup plan could be (if you don't attack him directly) to then stage a real invasion at a less vital location, but some place you do have to defend.

Either way, I think you are correct in going for the low-cost, low-risk approach in the face of that much combined power. Actually, it continues to work in your favor, because you will continue to frustrate him & chew around the edges. Of course, keep an eye on any real opportunities that may come up to hit an isolated portion of that force.



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Post #: 1186
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/13/2011 5:38:46 PM   
vettim89


Posts: 3615
Joined: 7/14/2007
From: Toledo, Ohio
Status: offline 		I know this is unlikely but he could be going for Oz. He just showed you this blob to try to get you to react. Like I said, unlikely but still a possibility

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Post #: 1187
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/13/2011 5:56:08 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Yes, that's a possibilty.  Certainly, Perth, Darwin and Townsville are legitimate and important targets.  However, at this late date committing a major force there when he has a world of trouble in the DEI seems very unlikely and counterproductive.

He could drop fifteen divisions in Oz and could quite possibly conquer the entire continent, but doing so would trigger the reinforcements that the Allies would use to forever hold Burma (and possibly Sumatra), so that the game would essentially end.  It would be a form of suicide.

For those reasons, I don't expect a big move on Oz at this time.

(in reply to vettim89)
Post #: 1188
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/13/2011 8:27:44 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		I remember your wanderings with that invasion fleet (the magical, mystical, mystery tour) and the craziness of the Iwo Jima landing! Seems like a long time ago.

< Message edited by John 3rd -- 7/13/2011 8:28:05 PM >

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Post #: 1189
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/13/2011 8:34:42 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		It does seem long ago now, but so fun.

A remarkable feature of that game - that neither of us new at the time, but which our AAR readers followed with barely concealed glee - occurred in 1944.

The Allies had already pulled an inside straight in game by taking and holding Iwo and Sikhalin Island.  You, clever crazy man, decided to counterinvade India...in 1944!  While your massive invasion armada was steaming thruogh the Indian Ocean south of Sumatra, i was busy shifting Allied carriers from Oz to India for reasons that I do not recall now.  Anyhow, it seems that our two forces came in close proximity, almost engage in a mutually surprsing titanic battle, but missing each other by the slimmest of margins.

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RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/13/2011 8:43:35 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

It does seem long ago now, but so fun.

A remarkable feature of that game - that neither of us new at the time, but which our AAR readers followed with barely concealed glee - occurred in 1944.

The Allies had already pulled an inside straight in game by taking and holding Iwo and Sikhalin Island.  You, clever crazy man, decided to counterinvade India...in 1944!  While your massive invasion armada was steaming thruogh the Indian Ocean south of Sumatra, i was busy shifting Allied carriers from Oz to India for reasons that I do not recall now.  Anyhow, it seems that our two forces came in close proximity, almost engage in a mutually surprsing titanic battle, but missing each other by the slimmest of margins.


Wasn't that the so-called "ball bearings rolling around a metal trash can" game? Or similar wording.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1191
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/13/2011 8:59:24 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Dang, Moose, what a memory!  Yes, I referred to all those Japanese troops roaming around the interior of India as "marbles in a metal bucket."

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1192
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/13/2011 10:41:40 PM   
John 3rd


Posts: 17178
Joined: 9/8/2005
From: La Salle, Colorado
Status: offline 		I have very fond memories of that long campaign. I used the analogy of being Apollo Creed boxing Rocky Balboa. Sank ship after ship (hit you with punch after punch) and you STILL KEPT coming! Couldn't KO you even after sinking 1,100+ ships. It was wild, unpredictable, and a blast to play.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1193
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/14/2011 4:52:40 AM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Dang, Moose, what a memory!  Yes, I referred to all those Japanese troops roaming around the interior of India as "marbles in a metal bucket."


Must be the lack of O2 at altitude. Just back from Bozeman, MT. A 2100 mile drive. Three days with my dad, stepmom, new bride, plus a gelding, a jenny, two fat cats, and two pretty useless excuses for mutts (but they make the 'rents happy, so . . .)

I don't believe I've ever said this before, but I've had enough steak to last me for awhile.

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1194
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/14/2011 9:05:00 AM   
JeffroK


Posts: 6391
Joined: 1/26/2005
Status: offline 		Back in those days I was waiting for CR's secret landing on an unoccupied Ilolio, wasnt that where your Iwo invasion was really headed for??

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(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1195
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/14/2011 2:00:04 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Right, Jeff.  In that game, Alied operations were given space-named themes.  Operation Red Planet was the long-time Allied plan to drop a massive invasion somewhere deep in the enemy heartland - in this case, sailing right past the outer perimiter of Japanese defenses to land a huge army on Luzon.  That plan was built around the fact that Japan hadn't taken Iloilo yet, so that the Allies could transfer some P-38s from China, thus giving a little bit of CAP while also allowing the Allies to do some last-second recon.

Even while the Allis were developing that plan, John III took Iloilo.  So the Allied plan began to morph as I looked for other possible targets and eventually settled on Iwo Jima.  The invasion of Iwo Jima was successful and one of the critical moments in the game.  I think it occurred in mid 1943.

(in reply to JeffroK)
Post #: 1196
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/14/2011 3:02:49 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I'm just now seeing the turn for 5/16/42.  While I'll do a regular post a bit later, there are a few interesting things I wanted to mention:

1.  The entire KB is in the Java Sea, including Junyo.  That means NoPac is probably carrier free at the moment.  Steve might have Hosho up there, and Hiyo unsually arrives in July, but could be expedited.  That increases the possiblity that the Allies migh be able to ram in some supply to Paramushiro, along with bringing in some fighters.  In other words, if Steve totally puts NoPac on the back burner while he deals with the DEI, the Allies can take advanage of it.  (However, he can easily overwhelm the Kuriles right now simply by bringing three divisions and just plowing ahead; but I'm not sure he's willing to do that given the losses he's taken.)  There's a chance the Allies will send Wasp this way.

2.  The Japanese are landing three divisions at Semerang.  So Steve now has four divisions (6th Guards, 4th, 52nd and Imperial Guards) to an island that might have 150 AV.  A massive misallocation of forces due to a failure to gather recon and evaluate the situation (IMO).  He'll steamroll through Java, but doing so will take him a few weeks just due to movement.  He's closing the noose around Sumatra, but doing so much more slowly and methodically than he needed to do.

3.  The Aliles have perhaps a month before eastern Sumatra is truly covered from all directions (except south).  I need to bring in as much supply as possible and decide if I want any more troops there.

4.  With four IJ divisions on Java and Steve apparently fully focused on the DEI, the odds of a major Japanese amphibious operation elsewhere go down (and they were already pretty low).  This is a good time for the Allies to do as much as possible to apply pressure on the perimeter - Burma, China, NoPac, CenPac (Tarawa), SoPac (Pago Pago), and SWPac (if I can get enough PP to pull some things together over the next two months, I think the Allies will reinforce Port Moresby and occupy Milne Bay).

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1197
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/14/2011 3:05:01 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		What about a strike at Rabaul? If he's not putting a lot of resources into the Solomons, perhaps a jab using the troops you have in the area might pay some dividends (especially if he's forced to commit his LBA to an extended campaign against Sumatra)?

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(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 1198
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/14/2011 3:09:09 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Hmmm, that might be a bridge too far.  I'm desperately short of PP.  It will take weeks to accumulate the PP to buy the restricted Aussie units allocated to future offensive operations in SWPac.  Leaping as far forward as Rabaul, which is well within Japan's air umbrella, would be a roll of the dice.  But leaping forward to occupy PM and Milne Bay in force in the next two or three weeks is a possibility...and at that point a further leap across New Guinea or even further might be possible if Steve is well and truly tied up elsewhere.

It's a good thought.  Japan is certainly going to have its hands full in the DEI and with the serious blazes occuring in Burma, China, NoPac and Gilberts, so the Allies need to be prepared to press forward in more open, less well-defended places.

(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 1199
RE: Das darf nicht var sein! - 7/14/2011 3:17:22 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		Another idea for you - if you've got him tied down at Pago Pago, you might look at using a bit of those troops (if all aren't needed - since there is no reason to eliminate his presence there, if he's supply-starved - he's stuck anyway) to roll up one or two of his nearby bases, if they aren't adequately guarded.

I realize that flat-tops are pretty scarce right now, outside of your main concentrations, but certainly something to keep in mind, should you be able to shake free a CVE or two once they become available.

_____________________________

Never Underestimate the Power of a Small Tactical Nuclear Weapon...

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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