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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

 
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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 4:37:23 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

On the South Front:
-----
Here I've swapped positions of the 4-3 INF and the 6-3 INF (dark blue arrows). I'm pretty sure that the 4-3 can't be overrun. Even if it can (I could be wrong), the only 2 units able to do so can't move up to the front, and there aren't enough other units with the range to make terrific attacks on the river lines or the 2 cities here.

The other unit with a light blue circle, the Sevastapol MIL, I moved into the port to prevent a paradrop into Crimea.

As you can see, I've pulled most of my ARM and MECH units down from the North Front to try to make some heavier stacks. This is a long line to cover, and the USSR just hasn't got a whole lot of units to work with. If the sacrifices up north can buy a little extra time there, that's good, but this is the line that needs to hold as long as possible. I think I've got enough flexibility to adjust things next impulse. The biggest problem is that I can't keep a strong line and still have a secondary line behind it.




No sacrifices. The 4-3 needs to be behind the river.

A secondary line is a luxury the USSR can not afford. Only the HQ gets to sit comfortably out of harm's way. And that respite might only be for 1 impulse. The front line should be as strong as possible. There should never be two divisions in the same hex. Spread them out like icing on a cake: no clumps. There is a hole NE of Dnepropetrovsk that should be occupied by some random corps.

I am not going to try to tweak every hex here. But if there is a cheaper unit than the Mot to sit and die in Kiev that would be nice. Maybe the 4-1 Gar in the north should rail to Kiev instead of the Moscow Militia - since there is only 1 rail move available. Oh, but all the rail moves have been made. The lesson here is to never make your rail moves until you have thought through all your land moves. Thinking back to that 4-1, it can either die in Vitebsk or move 1 hex NE and pray.

I had to make the 4-3 sacrifice, because this was the best I could do with the movement points of the units available. There was no spare Corps for that hole in the line, and there was no better unit to take the place of the MOT. I railed the Moscow MIL there (as suggested by . . . I forget) because it can die and be rebuilt to serve on the Moscow Line next turn. Otherwise, he's doing nothing of value with his 2 movement points.

About 1/3 of these units came from the Gomel, Bryansk and Kursk region. Even the fast units could only get so far down south. If I want to "tidy up" this line before the Germans get there, the sacrifice had to be made. I figured out which hexes could be attacked without him being there, and it didn't look good. With him there, and with the bombers too far off to hurt the line, I still have time to fix things.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 1621
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 4:38:22 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince


quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Okay, the next 6 posts show what I've set up for the Soviets. It's the best I can do, I think.
-----
Starting off with the Far North, Leningrad should be able to hold against the enemy, so I sent the Leningrad MIL to keep tabs on Novgorod. Now that snow is extremely unlikely, I've put the black print 5-3 INF into position between the lakes, where it should stay until supply runs out -- and maybe even after that. The white print 5-3 INF (the one that might have been better off in Baku) is moving south to help with the failing Northern Front. Although you can't see it in this image, he's within range of adding protection between the swamps NE of Vitebsk, or he could move closer to Smolensk as part of a continued retreat.


I like this except for weakening Leningrad.

The 3 units in Leningrad should be immobile; consider them all to have a movement factor of 0. Leningrad is as important as Gibraltar. Occupying Novgorod is pointless at this time. If you move the 6-3 back to Leningrad in the next impulse, it will become disorganized: giving the Germans a successful ground strike against a unit in Leningrad for free.

At the first sign of a possible Finnish attack on the 5-3 in the north, that unit should retreat towards Moscow. He IS the northern frontline.]

You're the one who told me that Leningrad could survive on 2 units.

That was because there was a reinforcement coming in as the 3rd unit. And because the Germans couldn't possibly get to the hex to help the Finns attack. Once the Germans get within 2 impulses of being adjacent to Leningrad, extreme paranoia is justified. Taking Leningrad is more import to the Germans than almost any other hex in Russia. When defended with strong units it is extremely difficult to take. That can't be said for any other hex in the Soviet Union.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1622
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 4:47:21 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: lordzyplon

No problem, happens to me all the time F2F. See my edit, as well.

I'll try it with the 1D10 CRT, using Blitz Bonus (I am) . . .

Including the use of those great long-ranged LND (desperate times, and all), I don't see the Finns getting better than 1:2 odds.

-1 for multi-stack factories
-1 for Engineer in the Hex

Even if you get the +1 Column shift from HQ Support, there is no way to kill off 2 units at 1:1 odds with a -2 to the die roll.


_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to lordzyplon)
Post #: 1623
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 4:48:05 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince


quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

On the South Front:
-----
Here I've swapped positions of the 4-3 INF and the 6-3 INF (dark blue arrows). I'm pretty sure that the 4-3 can't be overrun. Even if it can (I could be wrong), the only 2 units able to do so can't move up to the front, and there aren't enough other units with the range to make terrific attacks on the river lines or the 2 cities here.

The other unit with a light blue circle, the Sevastapol MIL, I moved into the port to prevent a paradrop into Crimea.

As you can see, I've pulled most of my ARM and MECH units down from the North Front to try to make some heavier stacks. This is a long line to cover, and the USSR just hasn't got a whole lot of units to work with. If the sacrifices up north can buy a little extra time there, that's good, but this is the line that needs to hold as long as possible. I think I've got enough flexibility to adjust things next impulse. The biggest problem is that I can't keep a strong line and still have a secondary line behind it.




No sacrifices. The 4-3 needs to be behind the river.

A secondary line is a luxury the USSR can not afford. Only the HQ gets to sit comfortably out of harm's way. And that respite might only be for 1 impulse. The front line should be as strong as possible. There should never be two divisions in the same hex. Spread them out like icing on a cake: no clumps. There is a hole NE of Dnepropetrovsk that should be occupied by some random corps.

I am not going to try to tweak every hex here. But if there is a cheaper unit than the Mot to sit and die in Kiev that would be nice. Maybe the 4-1 Gar in the north should rail to Kiev instead of the Moscow Militia - since there is only 1 rail move available. Oh, but all the rail moves have been made. The lesson here is to never make your rail moves until you have thought through all your land moves. Thinking back to that 4-1, it can either die in Vitebsk or move 1 hex NE and pray.

I had to make the 4-3 sacrifice, because this was the best I could do with the movement points of the units available. There was no spare Corps for that hole in the line, and there was no better unit to take the place of the MOT. I railed the Moscow MIL there (as suggested by . . . I forget) because it can die and be rebuilt to serve on the Moscow Line next turn. Otherwise, he's doing nothing of value with his 2 movement points.

About 1/3 of these units came from the Gomel, Bryansk and Kursk region. Even the fast units could only get so far down south. If I want to "tidy up" this line before the Germans get there, the sacrifice had to be made. I figured out which hexes could be attacked without him being there, and it didn't look good. With him there, and with the bombers too far off to hurt the line, I still have time to fix things.

The 4-3 could have filled the hole.

The Bf110E can do the ground strike on the 4-3 (40% success). The PARA can put him out of supply if the ground strike succeeds. Rundstedt can overrun the 4-3.

Here is a rule of thumb: a single unit alone in a clear hex will almost always be overrun by armor. You can do calculations out your ears and you will find that your d###ed opponent will find a way to overrun him. I am a very good chess player and I am very good at math. But my opponent of many years (who is a grand master at chess) proved to me on numerous occasions that I could never be sure that my calculations were correct. Hence my rule of thumb.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1624
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 4:53:11 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline
By the way, I would fly the HE 100 as escort for the ground strike, effectively rebasing him without using an air mission.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 1625
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 4:54:03 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince


quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

On the South Front:
-----
Here I've swapped positions of the 4-3 INF and the 6-3 INF (dark blue arrows). I'm pretty sure that the 4-3 can't be overrun. Even if it can (I could be wrong), the only 2 units able to do so can't move up to the front, and there aren't enough other units with the range to make terrific attacks on the river lines or the 2 cities here.

The other unit with a light blue circle, the Sevastapol MIL, I moved into the port to prevent a paradrop into Crimea.

As you can see, I've pulled most of my ARM and MECH units down from the North Front to try to make some heavier stacks. This is a long line to cover, and the USSR just hasn't got a whole lot of units to work with. If the sacrifices up north can buy a little extra time there, that's good, but this is the line that needs to hold as long as possible. I think I've got enough flexibility to adjust things next impulse. The biggest problem is that I can't keep a strong line and still have a secondary line behind it.




No sacrifices. The 4-3 needs to be behind the river.

A secondary line is a luxury the USSR can not afford. Only the HQ gets to sit comfortably out of harm's way. And that respite might only be for 1 impulse. The front line should be as strong as possible. There should never be two divisions in the same hex. Spread them out like icing on a cake: no clumps. There is a hole NE of Dnepropetrovsk that should be occupied by some random corps.

I am not going to try to tweak every hex here. But if there is a cheaper unit than the Mot to sit and die in Kiev that would be nice. Maybe the 4-1 Gar in the north should rail to Kiev instead of the Moscow Militia - since there is only 1 rail move available. Oh, but all the rail moves have been made. The lesson here is to never make your rail moves until you have thought through all your land moves. Thinking back to that 4-1, it can either die in Vitebsk or move 1 hex NE and pray.

I had to make the 4-3 sacrifice, because this was the best I could do with the movement points of the units available. There was no spare Corps for that hole in the line, and there was no better unit to take the place of the MOT. I railed the Moscow MIL there (as suggested by . . . I forget) because it can die and be rebuilt to serve on the Moscow Line next turn. Otherwise, he's doing nothing of value with his 2 movement points.

About 1/3 of these units came from the Gomel, Bryansk and Kursk region. Even the fast units could only get so far down south. If I want to "tidy up" this line before the Germans get there, the sacrifice had to be made. I figured out which hexes could be attacked without him being there, and it didn't look good. With him there, and with the bombers too far off to hurt the line, I still have time to fix things.

The 4-3 could have filled the hole.

The Bf110E can do the ground strike on the 4-3 (40% success). The PARA can put him out of supply if the ground strike succeeds. Rundstedt can overrun the 4-3.

Here is a rule of thumb: a single unit alone in a clear hex will almost always be overrun by armor. You can do calculations out your ears and you will find that your d###ed opponent will find a way to overrun him. I am a very good chess player and I am very good at math. But my opponent of many years (who is a grand master at chess) proved to me on numerous occasions that I could never be sure that my calculations were correct. Hence my rule of thumb.

Sorry, Steve, but you're wrong here. The PARA cannot put him out of supply in order to let an overrun happen. That's because an overrun happens during Land Movement, which comes before a paradrop -- which is an attack. Yes, it can put the unit OOS, but not in a way that lets the Germans reach the Dnieper.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 1626
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 4:57:41 PM   
Red Prince


Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

By the way, I would fly the HE 100 as escort for the ground strike, effectively rebasing him without using an air mission.

Doesn't an escort mission still disorganize the unit?

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 1627
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 5:01:32 PM   
Klydon


Posts: 2251
Joined: 11/28/2010
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


The 4-3 could have filled the hole.

The Bf110E can do the ground strike on the 4-3 (40% success). The PARA can put him out of supply if the ground strike succeeds. Rundstedt can overrun the 4-3.

Here is a rule of thumb: a single unit alone in a clear hex will almost always be overrun by armor. You can do calculations out your ears and you will find that your d###ed opponent will find a way to overrun him. I am a very good chess player and I am very good at math. But my opponent of many years (who is a grand master at chess) proved to me on numerous occasions that I could never be sure that my calculations were correct. Hence my rule of thumb.

Granted the para could drop to put the unit out of supply, but it would have to clear through the intercept from the I-16?


Maybe I wasn't too far fetched on this then except it would not be an attack on D-Town (stupid on my part to think it was in the trees after looking at the map again), but displacing the fighter and denying the forest to the Russians along with being able to press up against the river line in force would be beneficial I would think.

*Edit* Guess I was after seeing Aaron's post. Ah well, the best laid plans, yada, yada.

< Message edited by Klydon -- 1/26/2012 5:02:59 PM >

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 1628
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 5:29:00 PM   
composer99


Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
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Germany has no o-chit this turn & I'm not certain that Red Prince has built one (or is saving up for one).

At any rate, IMO the USSR is looking reasonably strong in the north: localized air superiority until the Germans bring their FTR up to the Vitebsk area & the river line they are already set up behind. In addition, once the time comes to leave the river line they have forests, cities and whatnot to fall back on all the way back to Gorki.

Again, in my opinion, as long as the USSR can fall back in good order and in strength, avoid getting planes overrun, and can throw up roadblocks (whether speedbumps or strongpoints) to slow the Germans down, they can handle some losses. Their goal is to trade space & units for time. The Americans are in, effectively a year earlier than usual, so the Germans have only one summer to get things done.

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 1629
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 5:33:17 PM   
lordzyplon

 

Posts: 40
Joined: 7/6/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

By the way, I would fly the HE 100 as escort for the ground strike, effectively rebasing him without using an air mission.

Doesn't an escort mission still disorganize the unit?



Yep. Seeing as it's the beginning of the turn, Soviet air power hasn't been neutralized, and the Germans aren't running back to the Vistula, I don't think it's critical to save the mission.

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1630
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 5:36:31 PM   
composer99


Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince


quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Okay, the next 6 posts show what I've set up for the Soviets. It's the best I can do, I think.
-----
Starting off with the Far North, Leningrad should be able to hold against the enemy, so I sent the Leningrad MIL to keep tabs on Novgorod. Now that snow is extremely unlikely, I've put the black print 5-3 INF into position between the lakes, where it should stay until supply runs out -- and maybe even after that. The white print 5-3 INF (the one that might have been better off in Baku) is moving south to help with the failing Northern Front. Although you can't see it in this image, he's within range of adding protection between the swamps NE of Vitebsk, or he could move closer to Smolensk as part of a continued retreat.


I like this except for weakening Leningrad.

The 3 units in Leningrad should be immobile; consider them all to have a movement factor of 0. Leningrad is as important as Gibraltar. Occupying Novgorod is pointless at this time. If you move the 6-3 back to Leningrad in the next impulse, it will become disorganized: giving the Germans a successful ground strike against a unit in Leningrad for free.

At the first sign of a possible Finnish attack on the 5-3 in the north, that unit should retreat towards Moscow. He IS the northern frontline.]

You're the one who told me that Leningrad could survive on 2 units.

That was because there was a reinforcement coming in as the 3rd unit. And because the Germans couldn't possibly get to the hex to help the Finns attack. Once the Germans get within 2 impulses of being adjacent to Leningrad, extreme paranoia is justified. Taking Leningrad is more import to the Germans than almost any other hex in Russia. [Emphasis mine] When defended with strong units it is extremely difficult to take. That can't be said for any other hex in the Soviet Union.


I would say the most important Soviet hex is Baku. If the Germans get there they have secured almost the entire USSR printed oil points, brought in Turkey, established an overland rail line between Europe & the Middle East that does not pass through straits, and crippled USSR production.

Leningrad is obviously nice (red factory + objective hex) but it can be taken with an o-chit using Finns, engineers and MTN units in the winter. No rush to crush it, especially not in the summer with the defenders doubled.

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 1631
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 5:44:39 PM   
Red Prince


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From: Bangor, Maine, USA
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Nope. No O-chit in the works, and I don't have one planned. Knowing the USA was going to enter early (by Gear Up and War Appropriations), having land units on the map seemed more important to me. Regardless of how the summer goes, I don't think I'd consider building one before S/O '41. I've found them useful in the winter, but if Germany can't make huge progress by then, its in trouble.

Then again, an O-chit used in Persia could help a lot if there is too much defense to overcome.
-----
Anyway, here's how things are going so far this impulse:

Japan did not DOW the USA. I'll stick by my earlier reasons, for better or worse. Instead, they set up for invasions of India and the Philippenes, among other targets, and tried to set a reasonable defensive perimiter with the navy. They are going to need several Land Actions this turn, so I'm hoping to be able to fend off whatever fleet the USA can bring to bear. The CW is still not a threat at this moment. Oh, yeah, and they sent a unit to Kwajalein, so the USA can't take that Victory City for free anymore. Yet again, the Japanese attempted to disrupt the CW convoy pipeline in the South Pacific (New Zealand Coast), but failed to find.

Italy sent its "monster fleet" back out into Cape St. Vincent, joining the NAV force left there after last turn, and moved the 2 HQs almost into position for the Persian campaign to begin. Next impulse, it will be set up, so the Soviets are going to have to settle on a defense. I'm still working on the German land moves for the impulse.

Germany tried to Ground Strike both Odessa and Riga this impulse. The failed at Riga, but nailed the INF in Odessa. Italy attempted to lob some artillery fire over into Dover, but missed the London MIL there. Japan tried to get those annoying Chinese Nationalists to flip in Kunming . . . and they got 2 out of 3! (Meatloaf, anyone?)




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to lordzyplon)
Post #: 1632
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 5:55:14 PM   
composer99


Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline
Japan has the cheap losses in place. Let the final battle of China begin!

(But really - Meatloaf? I mean, really? )

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1633
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 6:04:43 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince


quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

On the South Front:
-----
Here I've swapped positions of the 4-3 INF and the 6-3 INF (dark blue arrows). I'm pretty sure that the 4-3 can't be overrun. Even if it can (I could be wrong), the only 2 units able to do so can't move up to the front, and there aren't enough other units with the range to make terrific attacks on the river lines or the 2 cities here.

The other unit with a light blue circle, the Sevastapol MIL, I moved into the port to prevent a paradrop into Crimea.

As you can see, I've pulled most of my ARM and MECH units down from the North Front to try to make some heavier stacks. This is a long line to cover, and the USSR just hasn't got a whole lot of units to work with. If the sacrifices up north can buy a little extra time there, that's good, but this is the line that needs to hold as long as possible. I think I've got enough flexibility to adjust things next impulse. The biggest problem is that I can't keep a strong line and still have a secondary line behind it.




No sacrifices. The 4-3 needs to be behind the river.

A secondary line is a luxury the USSR can not afford. Only the HQ gets to sit comfortably out of harm's way. And that respite might only be for 1 impulse. The front line should be as strong as possible. There should never be two divisions in the same hex. Spread them out like icing on a cake: no clumps. There is a hole NE of Dnepropetrovsk that should be occupied by some random corps.

I am not going to try to tweak every hex here. But if there is a cheaper unit than the Mot to sit and die in Kiev that would be nice. Maybe the 4-1 Gar in the north should rail to Kiev instead of the Moscow Militia - since there is only 1 rail move available. Oh, but all the rail moves have been made. The lesson here is to never make your rail moves until you have thought through all your land moves. Thinking back to that 4-1, it can either die in Vitebsk or move 1 hex NE and pray.

I had to make the 4-3 sacrifice, because this was the best I could do with the movement points of the units available. There was no spare Corps for that hole in the line, and there was no better unit to take the place of the MOT. I railed the Moscow MIL there (as suggested by . . . I forget) because it can die and be rebuilt to serve on the Moscow Line next turn. Otherwise, he's doing nothing of value with his 2 movement points.

About 1/3 of these units came from the Gomel, Bryansk and Kursk region. Even the fast units could only get so far down south. If I want to "tidy up" this line before the Germans get there, the sacrifice had to be made. I figured out which hexes could be attacked without him being there, and it didn't look good. With him there, and with the bombers too far off to hurt the line, I still have time to fix things.

The 4-3 could have filled the hole.

The Bf110E can do the ground strike on the 4-3 (40% success). The PARA can put him out of supply if the ground strike succeeds. Rundstedt can overrun the 4-3.

Here is a rule of thumb: a single unit alone in a clear hex will almost always be overrun by armor. You can do calculations out your ears and you will find that your d###ed opponent will find a way to overrun him. I am a very good chess player and I am very good at math. But my opponent of many years (who is a grand master at chess) proved to me on numerous occasions that I could never be sure that my calculations were correct. Hence my rule of thumb.

Sorry, Steve, but you're wrong here. The PARA cannot put him out of supply in order to let an overrun happen. That's because an overrun happens during Land Movement, which comes before a paradrop -- which is an attack. Yes, it can put the unit OOS, but not in a way that lets the Germans reach the Dnieper.

So true, so true.

I still wouldn't have sacrificed the corps. The German attacks in their second impulse are going to be ferocious. That river line will hold for at most 1 impulse. Then everyone will be fleeing for their lives except the units that can't move. I doubt that the Germans could have positioned everyone where they wanted in their first impulse to breach the line. So, in my opinion, the 4-3 died for no gain.

_____________________________

Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Red Prince)
Post #: 1634
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 6:12:14 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

Posts: 22095
Joined: 5/19/2005
From: Honolulu, Hawaii
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

By the way, I would fly the HE 100 as escort for the ground strike, effectively rebasing him without using an air mission.

Doesn't an escort mission still disorganize the unit?

Yes.

What I believe will happen is that the Germans will rebase their Stukas forward in their 1st impulse. Then fly their Stukas on Ground Strike missions on their 2nd impulse. Rebase some of their other bombers forward on their 3rd. Fly those bombers on their 4th. So a pure fighter will be stuck in the far rear at the end of the turn. Might as well send him 4 hexes closer to the ever moving front now. But other players might want to keep him organized for moving forward in the hope that the turn lasts a long time.

_____________________________

Steve

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Post #: 1635
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 6:19:51 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

Germany has no o-chit this turn & I'm not certain that Red Prince has built one (or is saving up for one).

At any rate, IMO the USSR is looking reasonably strong in the north: localized air superiority until the Germans bring their FTR up to the Vitebsk area & the river line they are already set up behind. In addition, once the time comes to leave the river line they have forests, cities and whatnot to fall back on all the way back to Gorki.

Again, in my opinion, as long as the USSR can fall back in good order and in strength, avoid getting planes overrun, and can throw up roadblocks (whether speedbumps or strongpoints) to slow the Germans down, they can handle some losses. Their goal is to trade space & units for time. The Americans are in, effectively a year earlier than usual, so the Germans have only one summer to get things done.

I believe the Germans have enough strength to breach the Dnieper both in the north and in the south. Then the Russian frontline increases by 4-5 hexes as it starts moving east. Some units will be lost when the breach occurs.

The Germans will use weak units to pin the Russians in ZOCs and concentrate their best units for a breakthrough. It will get ugly. Russian units left in the front will be mopped up by the slower German infantry in the rear and the armor/mechanized will exploit any holes that appear; or they will advance and devour some poor corps that gets left alone on his way east.
---
But then not again you may be right. The Germans don't have a lot of units that can move 5+ on this front.

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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 1636
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 6:28:11 PM   
Red Prince


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets


quote:

ORIGINAL: Red Prince

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

By the way, I would fly the HE 100 as escort for the ground strike, effectively rebasing him without using an air mission.

Doesn't an escort mission still disorganize the unit?

Yes.

What I believe will happen is that the Germans will rebase their Stukas forward in their 1st impulse. Then fly their Stukas on Ground Strike missions on their 2nd impulse. Rebase some of their other bombers forward on their 3rd. Fly those bombers on their 4th. So a pure fighter will be stuck in the far rear at the end of the turn. Might as well send him 4 hexes closer to the ever moving front now. But other players might want to keep him organized for moving forward in the hope that the turn lasts a long time.

Unfortunately, the invasion of Denmark means I'll probably have to plan things so that I can get an Air Action in somewhere in order to get the German air power where it is needed most. That will depend partially on the lovely 6-factor lend-lease Stuka that Italy placed in Trieste as a reinforcement. If it can get far enough north into Germany, that could ease some of the trouble the Germans might find themselves in.

Oh. I forgot to mention that Germany railed the last 2 Rumainian units from Cernauti into France. It may not be impressive, but at least the Rumanian force is all in one place now. And/or it lets most of the French Coast be in ZOC, so that Antonescu can rail to the front lines as a supply link as the North Front lines begin to stretch later in the turn. That will depend on the success or failure of Mannerhaim and the German northern contingent.

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(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 1637
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 6:32:26 PM   
composer99


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Where it looks really scary to me is the south: faster Germans, better tank terrain, more Stukas. Losses there could result in the USSR needing to pull units away from the north, leaving them short there (or short in both sectors).

Also, one thing which I am probably not taking into account is that Red Prince is playing with Railway Movement bonus, which makes things a lot easier for the ARM/MECH in the forests as long as they're travelling along a rail line (indeed, 4-moving units can follow a rail line through a swamp without disorganizing).

Let's see where the Axis are at after this impulse, especially with regards to the disposition of the air forces.

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Post #: 1638
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 7:15:17 PM   
Red Prince


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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

Where it looks really scary to me is the south: faster Germans, better tank terrain, more Stukas. Losses there could result in the USSR needing to pull units away from the north, leaving them short there (or short in both sectors).

Also, one thing which I am probably not taking into account is that Red Prince is playing with Railway Movement bonus, which makes things a lot easier for the ARM/MECH in the forests as long as they're travelling along a rail line (indeed, 4-moving units can follow a rail line through a swamp without disorganizing).

Let's see where the Axis are at after this impulse, especially with regards to the disposition of the air forces.

I think I've just finished setting up my attacks. If that 4-3 wasn't there, I'm near certain Kiev would be lost this impulse. All I can think to say is that the Soviets better hope for a short turn. I'll post the attacks and results in the next hour or so.
-----
Edit: The airforces are going to end up playing catch-up, I think.

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 1/26/2012 7:16:12 PM >


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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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(in reply to composer99)
Post #: 1639
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 7:26:30 PM   
composer99


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The USSR wants a weather roll of 1 (Storm in Arctic, Rain in North Temperate) next impulse. If it screws with the Western Allies' plans for the turn, the USSR does not care (neither do the other Allies, really).

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Post #: 1640
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 7:46:56 PM   
Red Prince


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Okay, there are going to be 5 attacks this impulse. The first 3 are on the North Front:

The Soviets have 10 factors of LNDs available that could probably rebase far enough away to prevent an overrun, but 7 of those are the LND/ATR units. I don't think any of these attacks would benefit greatly from the support. Maybe the attack on the CAV, but not enough. So no Ground Support here.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 1641
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 7:47:05 PM   
Red Prince


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In the Ukraine, there are just 2 attacks, on the 4-3 INF and at Odessa. The odds I've put in for the Odessa attack include the German Ground Support, which makes it a 5:1 with a 50% chance at 7:1 Assault. The reason the Ground Support is being added is in case the Soviets decide to fly from Rostov to add 3 factors of their own. That changes it to a 39:9 attack, or 4:1 with a 33% shot at 5:1 odds. As the USSR, I don't think this is worth it. It does get a 70% chance to disorganize the 6 attacking units, but they aren't all that impressive, really. Especially when compared to the Ground Strike targets that will be available soon (3 German HQs in the clear).

I'll let you guys put your thoughts into it for an hour or so before running the attacks. I need to order some Chinese food for a late lunch, anyway.
-----
Edit: Of course, the Soviets could add 6 factors to make it a 3:1 with 25% chances of 4:1, but that would be a waste of air power, I think.
-----
2nd Edit: I forgot, there is a 4-factor Stuka under that 6-3 INF, so I'll use that instead of the Bf 110E.




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 1/26/2012 7:58:40 PM >


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Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 1642
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 8:02:31 PM   
Centuur


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First: Steve did mention that it isn't possible to rail move a factory out of Leningrad when it was in enemy ZOC. That isn't RAW:

RAW:
Your rail move can only enter or leave a hex in an enemy ZOC if there
is a friendly land unit in that hex both before and after the rail move.
Its move must stop when it enters an enemy ZOC.

So this means that a factory can be railmoved out of Leningrad if the Finns have it ZOC from the north. If this isn't coded as such, it should be stated as a bug.

Second: Leningrad can be held by two units for this moment, provided Pskov is still USSR controlled. The moment this city is lost, there should be a unit moved back towards Leningrad (I prever the Leningrad MIL and the Kiev MIL to be in that city. If a loss occurs, you destroy the Leningrad MIL and rebuild it immediately). So I would wait and see what happens.That invasion of Denmark (why wasn't there another MIL or GAR in Denmark, covering the coastline... That's a mistake, I must say), gave the Germans have a small problem to counter. They have to stop the Wallies there, because a loss of Copenhagen means an invasion of the Wallies fleet in the Baltic. And if that happens. Some better units have to be put into Denmark to prevent this from happening. Perhaps they can come out of France or Spain...

Third: That 4-3 is indeed a sacrifice. However: if you look at the positions of the German airforce: it is lagging behind. That's very, very good for the USSR, since he is out of Stuka range. By putting that 4-3 there, the Germans need to take 2 land impulses to get to the Dnjepr river (and not one...). That means a total of 8 air moves only for the Germans. What is he going to do with those: he needs to rebase planes before he can use them. Rebase 4 Stuka's in the south Dnjepr? That means giving the puny USSR FTR in the wood hex the possibility of trying to kill a Stuka if they groundstrike. Moving FTR's to the front: that means less Stuka's there... Yes, this turn might take a long time, but this move is exactly the way to make sure the Germans will take a long, long time to reach the river and start attacking. It might even mean that he needs an air impulse to get his airforce in position. That means this Axis impulse will be land, next air and the impulse after that another land (that's the most logical way to proceed for the Axis).

So: Red Prince, you have done the right thing here.

Fourth: I don't like the position of the Russian HQ's I agree with Steve on this. Move Timoshenko eastwards (towards woods) and Yeremenko into the area Steve is suggesting, because I agree on him going to run from wood hex to wood hex.

And finally: keep an eye on the planes the Germans will rebase. If they don't rebase FTR's with the Stuka's, keep the crappy USSR FTR's on the frontlines, to prevent ground strikes on key units. They can kill Stuka's...

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Post #: 1643
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 8:26:26 PM   
composer99


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I'm not so sure about using up two good ground-striking planes so early in the turn on ground support.

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Post #: 1644
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 8:34:24 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

Where it looks really scary to me is the south: faster Germans, better tank terrain, more Stukas. Losses there could result in the USSR needing to pull units away from the north, leaving them short there (or short in both sectors).

Also, one thing which I am probably not taking into account is that Red Prince is playing with Railway Movement bonus, which makes things a lot easier for the ARM/MECH in the forests as long as they're travelling along a rail line (indeed, 4-moving units can follow a rail line through a swamp without disorganizing).

Let's see where the Axis are at after this impulse, especially with regards to the disposition of the air forces.

That's been hard for me to get use to too. I am use to thinking that swamp can only be entered by Cav without disorganizing the unit.

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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 1645
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 8:34:27 PM   
composer99


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There's Bulgarians in the port on the junction of the Baltic & North Seas (Aarhus, I think?) and in Copenhagen.

The Germans want to bottle the Allies up on the island and keep them there. If they can hold on to Aarhus (they need a second corps & an anti-tank gun) they can look into mounting an easier counter-attack, although they will need some blitz forces to do so, and I'm not certain they can spare those.

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RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 8:35:26 PM   
Centuur


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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

I'm not so sure about using up two good ground-striking planes so early in the turn on ground support.

I agree. Odessa should have been bypassed and screened by Rumanian forces. However: they are in France at the moment. If looking it from that point of view, I can understand the choice made to not keep any USSR units so close to the Rumanian border alive. And if you want to kill Odessa now, you have to add the ground support, to keep the land units organised. No low odds attacks allowed this impulse...

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Post #: 1647
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 8:40:27 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

I'm not so sure about using up two good ground-striking planes so early in the turn on ground support.

It's a tossup for me. The rail lines have to be cleared for supply, so it's either Odessa or Kiev that need to be taken.

Waiting another impulse is possible to do that. But it would be nice, at the start of the next impulse, to have all the German units available for occupying every hex along the Dnieper and concentrating on two attacks: Kiev and some point on the southernmost part of the line.

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Steve

Perfection is an elusive goal.

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Post #: 1648
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 8:41:38 PM   
Red Prince


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So, the Axis attacks this impulse:




And the results:

Attack on Odessa: Assault, Fractional Odds .581 (No), Roll = 3+1 = 4 = -/1S (attackers disorganized)
Attack on USSR [55, 56]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .337 (Yes), Roll = Automatic = */2B (Breakthrough)
Attack on USSR [47, 53]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .491 (Yes), Roll = Automatic = */2B (Breakthrough)
Attack on USSR [44, 53]: Blitz, Roll = 4 = */2B (no Breakthrough, due to terrain cost)
Attack on Riga: Assault, Roll = 10 = */2S

The damned Ground Support didn't help at Odessa. Even though the USSR got the result it wanted, I still think it was the right thing to do. In this case, it gave extra (though not needed) help to the attackers . . . and . . . they got to rebase to the front lines, gaining them about 4 hexes each while doing something (supposedly) productive. Didn't work out, but you takes your chances.

The 4-3 INF got smacked hard, but the Germans still aren't at the Dnieper, and with all of those factors available, Kiev might have been history. There is still room to maneuver for the USSR because they are not dealing with enemy ZOC.

Both of the Blitz attacks in the North actually stopped the Germans from gaining an extra hex, due to terrain costs. In the case of the CAV, it was the 2nd hex advance that would have disorganized the MECH, and in the case of the GARR it was the hex he was in that prevented a Breakthrough. Had I realized this, I could have had Rommel in Vitebsk on the result, but I didn't, so the Russians get a break.

Riga fell. Would have loved that roll for Odessa, but it is actually better used here, since there are more units of value involved. Later on I'll post the positions . . . when we get back to the Allied impulse. I may post an overview of the region after rebasing aircraft, but my Chinese just arrived.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 1/26/2012 8:42:06 PM >


_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
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Post #: 1649
RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 1/26/2012 8:44:17 PM   
Centuur


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quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

There's Bulgarians in the port on the junction of the Baltic & North Seas (Aarhus, I think?) and in Copenhagen.

The Germans want to bottle the Allies up on the island and keep them there. If they can hold on to Aarhus (they need a second corps & an anti-tank gun) they can look into mounting an easier counter-attack, although they will need some blitz forces to do so, and I'm not certain they can spare those.

That's the nice thing of this invasion. The Germans must act. Perhaps the Italians can be of some assistance. However, since Bulgarians are in Denmark, they cannot attack in conjunction with the Italians, since they don't coöperate with each other. Of course: he can use Italian units for defense, but that means giving the Wallies the opportunity to reinforce the island. I think that is something which he mustn't allow for... So: Red Prince, apart from all those nice attacks in the USSR: what have you done about this nasty surprise?

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