Slitherine

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ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Here's the cleaner image. You can see that the Russians are going to have a lot of ZOCs to deal with in trying to pull back. It can be done, though . . . sort of. The 2 isolated units northwest of Bryansk should even be able to pull back a hex without getting disorganized.

As the Germans, I decided to let some of my army catch up in the North. To make this work, I had to create as many ZOC situations as I could. If the Russians really wanted to try it, they could probably take out a few of the units that have pushed forward as bait. Some are even very good units, but they would require at least 2 stacks to kill. If the Russians stick that much of there force in a single place to make an attack, it can only help Germany get through the lines.

Something to note: the Southern Front is going to have a 9-5 ARM and a 9-5 MECH rushing in to reinforce it in 2 impulses.

While it isn't on this map below, I think the attack in Persia was worthwhile. If I waited an impulse, the Soviets would have a unit in each of the 5 hexes, and this was the best attack I was going to be able to get, since all but one of those hexes can only be attacked from a single hexside. Now the Russians have to abandon Tabriz if they want a contiguous line, and they will no longer have the luxury of having a full line that can be attacked from only 1 hexside each.

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The 2nd Siberian and 2nd Mech move 2 hexes SE (they will only be attackable from 1 hex). The Kiev Mil moves one hex east (disorganizes) and the the 4th Siberian moves 1 hex SE (stays organized). The 4th GD Div moves into Vitebsk. The 39th Inf move to the hex west of Vitebsk.

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ORIGINAL: composer99

Use the Mexicans for garrison duty in the Pacific and send the Brazilians to Senagal to begin the build-up for the Moroccan campaign.

Instead of invading around Bordeaux I would invade at La Rochelle (where the Yugo cavalry is); you face at best a 3-factor defence (CAV + 1-factor notional). Or invade south of it to face a 2-factor notional only.

Then work to isolate the coastal sector from Bordeaux to Bilbao and mop up any OOS defenders.

That ought to get the Germans' attention.

Also, this is a stronger play than expanding the Danish beachhead (although you should do that as time & units permit) because it's areas that are good defence for the Allies (who can keep supply easily by sea and bring reinforcements from UK & US) and force a very strong commitment from the Axis.

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ORIGINAL: Red Prince

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ORIGINAL: paulderynck

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ORIGINAL: Red Prince

The Allies desperately need the first move next turn. If not, the CW risks having 2 of its TRS trapped in India . . . unless they can dislodge the Japanese fleet that is going to try to take the Arabian Sea. The Americans have Battleships and CVs on the way, but they won't be able to reach a high sea box next turn.

This is not a huge problem, as you can take a naval with the US or CW and put something in the sea zone which instantly puts all the rest in supply.

Unless it is killed in an interception by the Japanese . . .

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ORIGINAL: Red Prince

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ORIGINAL: paulderynck

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ORIGINAL: Orm

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USA adds Brzilian, Mexican and Panamanian units to its Force Pools

Since US still has plenty of units to build I think it was to early to add these units to the Force Pool.

I would never add them and consider this a bad mistake (although understandable for a noob). This is even more true for a build startegy like the US has used in this game, which does not concentrate on sea lift. You're going to move the US units first and even when/if you are built out in TRS and Amphs, it's difficult to divert any to move these practically useless units. You will rue this decision every time you build one of these poor units while good US Mech, Mot and Inf sits in the force pool.

Don't forget to "harvest" their pilots. They do a lot better flying US planes that can cooperate with the CW and FF than flying lower range, lower combat factor planes that cannot. The same cooperation issue applies to their land forces and thus makes them an impediment. They can't go to the home country of another allied major power, nor to any aligned (by any ally, including the US) minor. (You harvest them by taking the at-start plane off from a home city of theirs and increasing the US pilot marker by one. Then in a subsequent turn, they man a US plane.)

Occasionally you can use at-start Mexicans to garrison places in the Pacific (if on anti-partisan duty in Japan, you are doing real well). And occasionally you can put at start Brazillians in Italy (but usually not because they can't stack with CW units).

I don't think it's really a mistake. There are no current units from any of these countries in the Force Pools, and there are exactly 2 x FTR-2 popping up in 1942, when the USA will have 68 BP to spend each turn, and 2 x MECH to arrive in 1943, when they'll have 79 BP to spend per turn. I think that over those 2 years, they can probably afford the "lost" 18 BP by building these units. That is just about 2% of the 12-turn total expected BP produced. That isn't really a big deal.

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ORIGINAL: paulderynck

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ORIGINAL: Red Prince

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ORIGINAL: paulderynck

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ORIGINAL: Red Prince

The Allies desperately need the first move next turn. If not, the CW risks having 2 of its TRS trapped in India . . . unless they can dislodge the Japanese fleet that is going to try to take the Arabian Sea. The Americans have Battleships and CVs on the way, but they won't be able to reach a high sea box next turn.

This is not a huge problem, as you can take a naval with the US or CW and put something in the sea zone which instantly puts all the rest in supply.

Unless it is killed in an interception by the Japanese . . .

Idealy you use one in a port already in the sea zone. So it flips - BFD, it still provides supply for the other units. The JP can't search until after the Allies are done searching (and moving). Now if the JP fleet is so superior, you risk a lot just venturing out, than the units in question shouldn't have RTB'd there in the first place.

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ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Don't worry. I got tired and haven't even chosen my Actions yet for the impulse, Steve. Too much to think about, and a lot of thoughts to consider from others.

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The 2nd Siberian and 2nd Mech move 2 hexes SE (they will only be attackable from 1 hex). The Kiev Mil moves one hex east (disorganizes) and the the 4th Siberian moves 1 hex SE (stays organized). The 4th GD Div moves into Vitebsk. The 39th Inf move to the hex west of Vitebsk.

Isn't Vitebsk already behind the Germans? Do you mean Bryansk? Kursk?

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ORIGINAL: Red Prince

I was too brain-tired to try to set anything up for the Allies, so I did some brainless work instead, searching through my notes to see if the die rolls were evening out over the course of the game. So, through the first impulse of Turn #12, here's what I found:

I recorded 476 die rollls on a 1 D10, and they averaged out to 5.655, which is 0.155 over what you would expect (5.5)
I recorded 58 die rolls on a 2D10, and they averaged out to 11.07, which is almost dead on what you would expect (10.5)
I recorded 75 Fractional Odds rolls, and they averaged out to .503, which is again very close to what you would expect (.4995)
There were 47 weather rolls, and not including the modifiers, the average wearther roll was 5.68, which is again, just over the average (5.5)

What this tells me is that while the rolls do average out over the course of a game, "luck" can be defined by how often a particular roll shows up when it actually matters. The dice (simulator) has no idea if the attack or search roll matters. That's an emotional response we place on the needs of the moment. And, in this game, the luck has been favoring the Axis, I suppose, to a fairly large extent. Early on it was favoring the Allies in terms of USE chits drawn. The more active a side is, the more "luck" it is bound to see, I expect.

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ORIGINAL: paulderynck

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ORIGINAL: Red Prince

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ORIGINAL: paulderynck

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ORIGINAL: Orm

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USA adds Brzilian, Mexican and Panamanian units to its Force Pools

Since US still has plenty of units to build I think it was to early to add these units to the Force Pool.

I would never add them and consider this a bad mistake (although understandable for a noob). This is even more true for a build startegy like the US has used in this game, which does not concentrate on sea lift. You're going to move the US units first and even when/if you are built out in TRS and Amphs, it's difficult to divert any to move these practically useless units. You will rue this decision every time you build one of these poor units while good US Mech, Mot and Inf sits in the force pool.

Don't forget to "harvest" their pilots. They do a lot better flying US planes that can cooperate with the CW and FF than flying lower range, lower combat factor planes that cannot. The same cooperation issue applies to their land forces and thus makes them an impediment. They can't go to the home country of another allied major power, nor to any aligned (by any ally, including the US) minor. (You harvest them by taking the at-start plane off from a home city of theirs and increasing the US pilot marker by one. Then in a subsequent turn, they man a US plane.)

Occasionally you can use at-start Mexicans to garrison places in the Pacific (if on anti-partisan duty in Japan, you are doing real well). And occasionally you can put at start Brazillians in Italy (but usually not because they can't stack with CW units).

I don't think it's really a mistake. There are no current units from any of these countries in the Force Pools, and there are exactly 2 x FTR-2 popping up in 1942, when the USA will have 68 BP to spend each turn, and 2 x MECH to arrive in 1943, when they'll have 79 BP to spend per turn. I think that over those 2 years, they can probably afford the "lost" 18 BP by building these units. That is just about 2% of the 12-turn total expected BP produced. That isn't really a big deal.

We may differ on the impact but it really is a mistake. The BPs spent when you draw them are basically a complete waste. Saying you have a surfeit of BPs is a poor rationale indeed. The wondeful thing (and the curse) about the US is that there's always good stuff to build. Plus by '43 you'll want an O-chit every turn so you can get the stuff to where it needs to go. (Super - Combined)

Would you ever do it again after considering the downsides (and lack of any upside except a few pilots, Edit: which you normally get anyway when going to war at the usual time in '42)?

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ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

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ORIGINAL: Red Prince

I was too brain-tired to try to set anything up for the Allies, so I did some brainless work instead, searching through my notes to see if the die rolls were evening out over the course of the game. So, through the first impulse of Turn #12, here's what I found:

I recorded 476 die rollls on a 1 D10, and they averaged out to 5.655, which is 0.155 over what you would expect (5.5)
I recorded 58 die rolls on a 2D10, and they averaged out to 11.07, which is almost dead on what you would expect (10.5)
I recorded 75 Fractional Odds rolls, and they averaged out to .503, which is again very close to what you would expect (.4995)
There were 47 weather rolls, and not including the modifiers, the average wearther roll was 5.68, which is again, just over the average (5.5)

What this tells me is that while the rolls do average out over the course of a game, "luck" can be defined by how often a particular roll shows up when it actually matters. The dice (simulator) has no idea if the attack or search roll matters. That's an emotional response we place on the needs of the moment. And, in this game, the luck has been favoring the Axis, I suppose, to a fairly large extent. Early on it was favoring the Allies in terms of USE chits drawn. The more active a side is, the more "luck" it is bound to see, I expect.

Thank you. I was getting nervous seeing all those high numbers.

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ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

The question is not so much whether to add those units as it is when. You could have held off bringing them into the US force pool for a long time, waiting until those units would be worthy of being built (compared to the other units that could have been built instead).

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ORIGINAL: Red Prince
So, the answer to your question is: When the USA enters the war this early in future games, sure I'll add these nations to the Force Pools. The reason being that the majority of the forces already start on the map for free . . . and if I get into a situation where I actually lose some of them, it means I probably will need them again. Now, if the USA enters the war a year later, the situation is different. In that case I'd likely have about 350 fewer BP to spend over those 15 turns and that makes a difference.
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Edit: What I'm really saying when it comes right down to it, is that I don't see 4 units that cost a total of 14 BP as making or breaking the American push simply by being built. Therefore, when entering the war this early, I can't think of it as a "big mistake" to add them to the Force Pools.

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ORIGINAL: paulderynck

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ORIGINAL: Red Prince
So, the answer to your question is: When the USA enters the war this early in future games, sure I'll add these nations to the Force Pools. The reason being that the majority of the forces already start on the map for free . . . and if I get into a situation where I actually lose some of them, it means I probably will need them again. Now, if the USA enters the war a year later, the situation is different. In that case I'd likely have about 350 fewer BP to spend over those 15 turns and that makes a difference.
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Edit: What I'm really saying when it comes right down to it, is that I don't see 4 units that cost a total of 14 BP as making or breaking the American push simply by being built. Therefore, when entering the war this early, I can't think of it as a "big mistake" to add them to the Force Pools.

"The reason being that the majority of the forces already start on the map for free . . " Exactly, you get them for free even without adding the rest to your force pool. The only bad thing is you don't get the free pilots for the 1942 planes - which is totally compensated (and morseo) by getting the US in early.

So it's one O-chit, you say. I'd rather have the extra O-chit. It might be the difference in being able to call a Land O-chit with Eisenhower to attack the last two victory cities the Allies need - everything else being equal. There's also "opportunity cost" - the waste of the draw when you could get a good US unit into the game one or more turns earlier. This is especially true for the Hellcats. It is actually quite hard to draw them as quickly as you want to get them (which is instantly). 12-range FTR2s are the best unit for the Pacific (well - 12 range FTR3s are actually easier to build for sure but you'll want them all anyway.) You might have to build every single FTR2 before you get them all (which hurts gearing as you keep increasing the number each turn to the detriment of something else), so the very last thing you want in the force pool is two useless FTR2s.

BTW - this is the time to start scrapping all the horrid US FTRs you can, but that's not many. Actually the US doesn't have any really good FTRs until '42...

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ORIGINAL: composer99

One thing to note is that if carried out, this invasion is not meant to be a permanent, strategic invasion of Europe, unless of course the Germans ignore it.

Once the Germans start sending over real units, ideally the Allies will have ports to fall back on to evacuate their good units, leaving Brazilians & US MIL units (they may have a use after all!) as a rearguard/nuisance - while invading somewhere else to start it all over again.

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ORIGINAL: paulderynck

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ORIGINAL: composer99

Use the Mexicans for garrison duty in the Pacific and send the Brazilians to Senagal to begin the build-up for the Moroccan campaign.

Unless Senegal is conquered, the Brazillians can't go there without FTC and since there is no Brazillian HQ....

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ORIGINAL: composer99

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ORIGINAL: paulderynck

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ORIGINAL: composer99

Use the Mexicans for garrison duty in the Pacific and send the Brazilians to Senagal to begin the build-up for the Moroccan campaign.

Unless Senegal is conquered, the Brazillians can't go there without FTC and since there is no Brazillian HQ....

As Senegal is the current French home country, you are correct.

What I ought to have recommended (and will hence recommend) is that the Brazilians begin the build-up in Spanish Sahara, instead. They can debark in Cisneros and the Canary Islands without FTC; as a bonus these two ports are adjacent to both Cape St Vincent and Cape Verde Basin, so the Allies don't have to risk TRS in the teeth of Axis fleet & naval air assets in the former sea area.

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ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

I was thinking that the Commonwealth should land some units in Archangel so the Russians don't have to defend that city. To do so, the Commonwealth probably needs to pull the HQ out of Denmark (FTC requirements). Eisenhower is too valuable to spend the cold winters in northern Russia.

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ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

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ORIGINAL: Red Prince

Here's the cleaner image. You can see that the Russians are going to have a lot of ZOCs to deal with in trying to pull back. It can be done, though . . . sort of. The 2 isolated units northwest of Bryansk should even be able to pull back a hex without getting disorganized.

As the Germans, I decided to let some of my army catch up in the North. To make this work, I had to create as many ZOC situations as I could. If the Russians really wanted to try it, they could probably take out a few of the units that have pushed forward as bait. Some are even very good units, but they would require at least 2 stacks to kill. If the Russians stick that much of there force in a single place to make an attack, it can only help Germany get through the lines.

Something to note: the Southern Front is going to have a 9-5 ARM and a 9-5 MECH rushing in to reinforce it in 2 impulses.

While it isn't on this map below, I think the attack in Persia was worthwhile. If I waited an impulse, the Soviets would have a unit in each of the 5 hexes, and this was the best attack I was going to be able to get, since all but one of those hexes can only be attacked from a single hexside. Now the Russians have to abandon Tabriz if they want a contiguous line, and they will no longer have the luxury of having a full line that can be attacked from only 1 hexside each.

Please tell me that you haven't made your rail moves yet.

Yeremenko (near Moscow) rails to Krasnodar; he is joined by the Para via air transport. The 40th Garr moves into Novorossiysk. This limits the Germans to 1 hex from which to attack (for the moment). 16:5 or 16:11 in a city.

The units in Rostov stay there.

The Dnep. Mil rails to Stavropol. He defends the Caucasus. Hopefully the remnants of the defenders on the Kerch straits will be able to join him.

The 1st Mot Div and the 3-2 in Stalino die there alone.

Going to the north, ...
The Gorki Mil dies in Talinin.

The 51st Inf and Moscow Mil move to the hex SW of Moscow (they can only be attacked from 1 hex). Next impulse they retreat into Moscow.

The 2nd Siberian and 2nd Mech move 2 hexes SE (they will only be attackable from 1 hex). The Kiev Mil moves one hex east (disorganizes) and the the 4th Siberian moves 1 hex SE (stays organized). The 4th GD Div moves into Vitebsk. The 39th Inf move to the hex west of Vitebsk.

The 2nd Mot moves to the hex east of Gomel and is joined by the 3rd Mech.

The Stalino Mil moves 1 hex west. He is going to die there but he interferes with the Axis movement.

The 4th Mech and 13th Mech move NE. The 2nd Armor joins them (14 factors).

The 1st Armor moves to the hex NW of Kharkov. It is joined by the 8-5 GD Mech (15 factors).

The AA moves 2 hexes NW. Its purpose is to prevent the Germans from charging through the hole in the line. The Germans do not have units capable of attacking him there on the blitz table.

Timoshenko moves into Kharkov and Koniev moves into the hex where Timoshenko was sitting.

The goal here it to sacrifice 6 weak units and escape with the best units through the center of the line. The HQ's are too far forward here but there is nothing to be done about that.

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ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

What are the Commonwealth priorities for their land units?

Defend the UK?
Offensive operations in Finland?
West Africa invasion?
East Africa roll up of the Italians?
Invade Iraq?
Hold Aden?
Retake Egypt?
Throw the Japanese out of India/Burma/Ceylon?
Defend Singapore?
Retake the NEI oil?
Defend islands in the Pacific?
Defend New Zealand & Australia?

These are far flung objectives. After choosing what to do, units need to be assign for each task - especially transports for delivering the units to their destinations and convoys et al for keeping them in supply.

I get the feeling that Murmansk is getting a lot of resources when it shouldn't necessarily. Perhaps that is the best use of the best CW INF (the 7-3), but you need to figure out what needs to go where all around the globe rather than simply take the best units available and commit them to the bright shining point of current interest.

Objectives should be developed for the Commonwealth for 1941. Those should drive the decisions throughout the year.

I've put the Highest priorities in bold, with 2nd tier in Red.

Defense of the UK isn't going to be a problem. The EuroAxis builds and land operations make it clear that there will be no Sea Lion (at least in the next 3-4 years). Similarly, I'd like to get an offense going in Finland, but that would be best done during the winter of 1941. The reasons these two units were chosen is that they are both white-print, Alexander was the only HQ available, and they were stacked with the right transports.

A West Africa invasion isn't possible at the moment. The Italians have a small but solid force preventing any serious landings, and Cape St. Vincent is dominated by 60+ Italian surface factors and a good amount of air cover.

I'd really like to start Wavell and his cohort up the East African coast. The units are in position, and reinforcing the area should be easy to do. What I need are Land Actions, and that means setting up convoy defenses that will hold for the full turn. This can eventually lead to retaking Egypt, so retaking Egypt is not at present a top priority.

An invasion of Iraq would be nice, but it would be an invasion in name only. I don't think I can maintain significant forces in the area for at least a year.

Aden needs to be held. It is my primary base for the Indian Ocean fleet, and the only way it could be lost is if Italy decides to go after Saudi Arabia . . . unlikely.

Tossing the Japanese out of India . . . well, I don't want them to get there in the first place. I don't know how important Ceylon actually is in game terms, so I don't know if it should be a priority or not. Similarly, I don't know if Burma is worth the effort.

Singapore has a white-print MIL in it for now, but if Japan really wants it, it has the forces to take it. The same goes for the remaining NEI Oil.

The Pacific is very large, and I think that the USA will be in the war before Japan takes it all, so that is going to be left mostly to the Americans.

Australia and New Zealand will likely be getting reinforcements through builds, and won't need units sent there.
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As for the USA, I've decided to spend my 3 naval moves this impulse sending out cruisers loaded with INF Divisions to the N. Atlantic and to the Bay of Biscay. Both are well defended by the CW right now, and Germany isn't going to DOW the USA. If the vote (currently 2-0) continues to favor a USA DOW attempt at 60% vs Germany and Italy, this will put these units in position to take back the Azores and maybe steal a port or two in Portugal or Spain. Just having them sitting there this turn will force Germany to send a few more units to the area.
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So, how important is Ceylon in WiF?

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ORIGINAL: Orm

I recommend defending the Major Port in Ceylon with one unit. This helps the defence of India. Letting Japan gain a major port there is a major threat.

Colombo is only a Minor Port. Trincomalee, which was taken by Japan last impulse is the Major Port, so it's too late to save it.
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Edit: Okay, so I've set my top 3 priorities as:
1. Defend the convoy pipelines
2. Defend India
3. Advance in East Africa

Minor priority is to try to prepare an assault on Finland, but there are 2 fresh short-ranged TRS coming in at the start of J/A '41 which can be dedicated to ferrying troops that way. After Alexander enters Murmansk with his supporting INF, all TRS will be dedicated to moving forces toward the goals listed above.