RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

Matrix Games Forums

Forums Register Login Photo Gallery Member List Search Calendars FAQ

My Profile Inbox Address Book My Subscription My Forums Log Out

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

View related threads: (in this forum | in all forums)

Logged in as: Guest

Users viewing this topic: none

Printable Version

All Forums >> [New Releases from Matrix Games] >> World in Flames >> After Action Report >> RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR)

Page: << < prev 77 78 [79] 80 81 next > >>

Message

<< Older Topic Newer Topic >>

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/7/2012 7:02:38 PM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

Here is an overview of the Turkish border lines. HQ-I Yeremenko is going to have to rail down to the hex southeast of the work Armenia. Nobody can reach the hex below that, but the Soviets can probably keep the Germans from getting 4 Corps on the Soviet-Turkish border this turn by using careful placement of the remaining units. They might not keep Baku, but they'll keep the Turks out of the war a little longer. Then again, they might keep Baku after all.

I'll have full images of these 2 fronts and the invasion of France in a little while.

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 2341

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/7/2012 7:17:28 PM

composer99

Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline

I'm particularly interested to know if if the Rumanian CAV now flanking Rommel along the Loire is still by itself or not.

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 2342

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/7/2012 7:18:18 PM

composer99

Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline

Is there any chance of a groundstrike against the German blitz stack in the forest north of Persia?

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to composer99)

Post #: 2343

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/7/2012 7:45:32 PM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

Starting off, I've got the North Border for you:

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to composer99)

Post #: 2344

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/7/2012 7:45:36 PM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

Next up, the South Border:

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to composer99)

Post #: 2345

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/7/2012 7:45:40 PM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

The looming attackers approaching Rostov:

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to composer99)

Post #: 2346

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/7/2012 7:45:46 PM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

The Far North:

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to composer99)

Post #: 2347

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/7/2012 7:45:50 PM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

And, finally, the landing in France:
-----
I could probably land HQ-I Clark and a MTN Division with the MOT, and another CW 6-4 INF with HQ-I MacArthur.

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to composer99)

Post #: 2348

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/7/2012 7:47:13 PM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

Is there any chance of a groundstrike against the German blitz stack in the forest north of Persia?

No. The Soviets are out of tactical factors, I'm afraid.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to composer99)

Post #: 2349

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/7/2012 8:32:08 PM

composer99

Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline

I suggest the Allies attack La Rochelle this impulse for a safe attack. HQ-I Clark, the 8-5 MOT and either a 2-factor div or a 1-factor div + ground support (especially if it can all be American) can get a 4:1+1 assault before shore bombardment (if they have any left).

If they are feeling lucky the Allies can instead attempt an attack on Rommel. The MOT would move to the hex with the Marines, Clark and the other reinforcements can debark in the empty hex, the marine div & the CW 2-3 inf div can trade places and hopefully there is sufficient ground support (1 factor) to make it a 3:1+1 (+2 for disorganized units, -1 for combat friction). If it worked it would probably be the strongest attack since it improves the Allies' defensive position, forces relocation of another HQ to deal with the problem, and the La Rochelle attack would be a gimme afterwards. Most importantly, Rommel's hex will never be weaker than it is now.

In either case the Sparviero would have to be chased away.

Alternatively, the Allies can get a 4:1-1 attack, using the 2-3 div, the 6-4 MAR and the 8-5 MOT, on the Rumanians. They could throw in ground support to give it a shot at an odds level increase or groundstrike to try to counter the combat friction penalty (or both for preference) and the Sparviero can't interfere. Also, it prevents reinforcement of Rommel's hex.

I think La Rochelle is the best because it is the safest attack, opens up a port, can be supported by shore bombardment (if available), can't be counter-attacked (what with Rommel & the MECH being disorganized) and opens up a third hex against Rommel (although he can still be reinforced).

Is there any chance of Allied MECH or ARM landing this turn in France? What about next turn?

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 2350

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/8/2012 12:22:03 AM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

I suggest the Allies attack La Rochelle this impulse for a safe attack. HQ-I Clark, the 8-5 MOT and either a 2-factor div or a 1-factor div + ground support (especially if it can all be American) can get a 4:1+1 assault before shore bombardment (if they have any left).

If they are feeling lucky the Allies can instead attempt an attack on Rommel. The MOT would move to the hex with the Marines, Clark and the other reinforcements can debark in the empty hex, the marine div & the CW 2-3 inf div can trade places and hopefully there is sufficient ground support (1 factor) to make it a 3:1+1 (+2 for disorganized units, -1 for combat friction). If it worked it would probably be the strongest attack since it improves the Allies' defensive position, forces relocation of another HQ to deal with the problem, and the La Rochelle attack would be a gimme afterwards. Most importantly, Rommel's hex will never be weaker than it is now.

In either case the Sparviero would have to be chased away.

Alternatively, the Allies can get a 4:1-1 attack, using the 2-3 div, the 6-4 MAR and the 8-5 MOT, on the Rumanians. They could throw in ground support to give it a shot at an odds level increase or groundstrike to try to counter the combat friction penalty (or both for preference) and the Sparviero can't interfere. Also, it prevents reinforcement of Rommel's hex.

I think La Rochelle is the best because it is the safest attack, opens up a port, can be supported by shore bombardment (if available), can't be counter-attacked (what with Rommel & the MECH being disorganized) and opens up a third hex against Rommel (although he can still be reinforced).

Is there any chance of Allied MECH or ARM landing this turn in France? What about next turn?

No Allied MECH or ARM landing in France for another turn or two. So far, all that the USA has are a few MECH Divisions that haven't reached the UK yet. The CW MECH is in India. There is satisfactory Shore Bombardment available, but Ground Support is in short supply. An attack on Rommel would not be a great idea, because he can call a Blitz and survive easily. Also, it can't use the Shore Bombardment.

All think more about it in the morning. I'm done for the day. It's probably going to have to be La Rochelle.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to composer99)

Post #: 2351

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/8/2012 3:53:57 AM

composer99

Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline

I agree La Rochelle is a safe bet, and would doubtless undertake that attack myself (I'm a cautious player), which is why I said so.

However, I still think an attack on Rommel is a decent move. Let me run through the numbers:
- 8-5 MOT moves to the hex with the MAR corps
- the mar div trades places with the 2-3 CW inf div
- HQ Clark, the 6-4 INF corp and the 1-factor mtn div (I'm assuming it's the US mtn div that becomes available in 1940) debark in the open hex on the coast

That gives us 2 hexes attacking with 13 and 16 factors respectively for a total of 29 factors. 1 factor ground support from somewhere gives us the 3:1 on the 10 factors in Rommel's hex. There's the other FTR3 and maybe a CVP or two that can intercept the Italian Sparviero if it tries to fly ground support and chase it away or shoot it down.

With 2 disorganized defending units you get +2 to the roll and -1 to the roll for the allied combat friction. That gives us the net 3:1 +1. So our die roll results range from 2 to 11 on the charts. I would try to use HQ support with Clark as well.

If the Allies take the hex, the other units in Clark's hex can advance. If the Allies are disorganized MacArthur can reorganize most of them (the three non-HQ corps and 1 division).

On an assault that gives us:
- 10% chance the Allies take 2 losses, which they can afford with 2 divisions
- 40% chance the Allies take 1 loss, which they can afford with 2 divisions
- 50% chance the Allies take no losses

- 80% chance the Allies are disorganized
- 20% chance the Allies remain organized

- 20% chance the Axis take no losses
- 40% chance the Axis take 1 loss (obviously, the art gun) (of which 10% result in Rommel being shattered)
- 40% chance the Axis take 2 losses (killing both units)

- 50% chance the Allies take the hex

On a blitz, we get:
- 30% chance the Allies take 1 loss
- 70% chance the Allies take 0 losses

- 60% chance the Allies are disorganized
- 40% chance the Allies remain organized

- 40% chance the Axis take no losses (of which they are retreated 20% of the time and shattered 10% of the time)
- 50% chance the Axis take 1 loss (the art gun) (of which Rommel is retreated 10% of the time and shattered 20% of the time)
- 10% chance the Axis take 2 losses

- 70% chance the Allies take the hex

IMO the better chances the Allies have to take the hex and remain organized make it worth it even if they don't kill Rommel.

Now that I've looked at the #s the Rommel attack looks better than I initially thought. Most importantly, the Allies have the cheap losses to take on the worst results.

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 2352

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/8/2012 8:10:42 AM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

I agree La Rochelle is a safe bet, and would doubtless undertake that attack myself (I'm a cautious player), which is why I said so.

However, I still think an attack on Rommel is a decent move. Let me run through the numbers:
- 8-5 MOT moves to the hex with the MAR corps
- the mar div trades places with the 2-3 CW inf div
- HQ Clark, the 6-4 INF corp and the 1-factor mtn div (I'm assuming it's the US mtn div that becomes available in 1940) debark in the open hex on the coast

That gives us 2 hexes attacking with 13 and 16 factors respectively for a total of 29 factors. 1 factor ground support from somewhere gives us the 3:1 on the 10 factors in Rommel's hex. There's the other FTR3 and maybe a CVP or two that can intercept the Italian Sparviero if it tries to fly ground support and chase it away or shoot it down.

With 2 disorganized defending units you get +2 to the roll and -1 to the roll for the allied combat friction. That gives us the net 3:1 +1. So our die roll results range from 2 to 11 on the charts. I would try to use HQ support with Clark as well.

If the Allies take the hex, the other units in Clark's hex can advance. If the Allies are disorganized MacArthur can reorganize most of them (the three non-HQ corps and 1 division).

On an assault that gives us:
- 10% chance the Allies take 2 losses, which they can afford with 2 divisions
- 40% chance the Allies take 1 loss, which they can afford with 2 divisions
- 50% chance the Allies take no losses

- 80% chance the Allies are disorganized
- 20% chance the Allies remain organized

- 20% chance the Axis take no losses
- 40% chance the Axis take 1 loss (obviously, the art gun) (of which 10% result in Rommel being shattered)
- 40% chance the Axis take 2 losses (killing both units)

- 50% chance the Allies take the hex

On a blitz, we get:
- 30% chance the Allies take 1 loss
- 70% chance the Allies take 0 losses

- 60% chance the Allies are disorganized
- 40% chance the Allies remain organized

- 40% chance the Axis take no losses (of which they are retreated 20% of the time and shattered 10% of the time)
- 50% chance the Axis take 1 loss (the art gun) (of which Rommel is retreated 10% of the time and shattered 20% of the time)
- 10% chance the Axis take 2 losses

- 70% chance the Allies take the hex

IMO the better chances the Allies have to take the hex and remain organized make it worth it even if they don't kill Rommel.

Now that I've looked at the #s the Rommel attack looks better than I initially thought. Most importantly, the Allies have the cheap losses to take on the worst results.

You're right, it does look better than I expected.

The only problem I have with this, and it's just a semi-problem here, is that because of the limited sealift available to the USA, both the CW and the Americans will end up taking Combined Actions for most of the turn. This should really be the last impulse the Wallies actively play, but they haven't finished up everything the "need" to do this turn yet.

Specifically, HQ-A Wavell needs to get his troops to the border of Tanganyika before the good weather in the S. Monsoon zone vanishes and good weather in the N. Monsoon zone begins. If this doesn't happen, he could spend all of the winter turns getting to Tanganyika in the Rain, then spend all of the summer turns next year pushing through Tanganyika in the Rain again -- instead of taking advantage of clear weather in both. This could set things back in E. Africa by a full year. Similarly, the troops in India haven't had much chance to reposition for a better defense, and the limits on naval moves mean somone is going to lose some production, probably the CW, because additional convoy points have not had a chance to get into place.

I guess the question is whether the Wallies expect to be able to stay in France or not . . . if so, then these attacks should happen. If the goal is to pull Germans off the Russian front, then they shouldn't -- the more units the Wallies have in France, the more they need to evacuate over the next few turns once Germany has fully reinforced the area. That means more limitations placed on other theatres. With no Blitz units available for France in the next few turns, I don't think the Allies can sustain the attack.

As soon as Turkey enters the war, which probably won't happen later than J/F '42 (and most likely earlier), the Germans suddenlty have another 6 Blitz units (the Persian forces) that are no longer needed against the USSR and can rail straight to the Western Front to put a stop to the Allied incursion.
-----
Edit: However, since I want to get started for the day, I'll try to set up this attack on Rommel.

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 2/8/2012 8:29:51 AM >

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to composer99)

Post #: 2353

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/8/2012 9:00:05 AM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

I'm sorry, but I've actually changed my mind. If only the Americans had more sealift available . . .

I count at least 10 Land Moves that the CW really should make now in order to be sure of holding on to India and moving up in North Africa. So they will take another Land Action. The Americans will take a Combined, using their last transport to pick up an ART and an AT from Bristol to debark into France. I know this is missing out on an opportunity, but I feel like I shouldn't hold up full-scale operations in other parts of the world for the sake of an attack that might be nothing more than a side show. If I thought this could buy the Soviets another year of survival, then I would do it -- trading a year in E. Africa for a year of Soviet activity -- but I don't.
-----
Edit: I should still be able to get a 3:1 or better attack on La Rochelle, I think. It means sacrificing the CW INF Division in an Axis attack next impulse, but it gains a port that can't be retaken this turn, and a total of 3 coastal hexes. It also lets me put another unit into Archangel, where Eisenhower can reorganize both the MIL and the TRS . . . which can then be used next impulse to get Clark into France.
-----
As a side-note: in Rostov, I intend to use the ART there to try a Bombardment/Ground Strike on the Blitz stack across the river. It's only a 1 in 5 chance to disorganize each 9-5 unit, but the Germans can put together close to a 2:1 +1 attack with those 2 units. Without even 1 of them, this would be reduced significantly. At 2:1 +1, the ART won't survive the attack 40% of the time, anyway, and there's a 30% chance all 3 units will be destroyed. If I can get it down to 1:1 +2, those probabilities are reduced to 30% and 20%, respectively.

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 2/8/2012 9:18:54 AM >

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 2354

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/8/2012 9:30:57 AM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

So much for that Bombardment plan near Rostov. More high rolls, and the Germans are laughing maniacally . . .

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 2355

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/8/2012 10:55:50 AM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

quote:

Here is what I did with these units:

1. HQ-I Yeremenko railed to the mountain hex southeast of the "Armenia" label (see 2nd image)
2. 39th INF moves into the mountains 2 hexes southeast
3. HQ-I Timoshenko and the 13th MECH Division move to the mountains southwest of Grozny
4. The 4th GD MECH takes the place of the 2nd ARM northeast of Tiflis, getting disorganized
5. The 2nd ARM takes the place of the 9th INF
6. The 9th INF moves into the swamp northwest of Batum, getting disorganized

What this does:

The Germans can probably get an attack on the 4th Siberian INF that will kill it, and possibly leave the Germans organized. Even if they are disorganized, the swamp needs coverage for next turn; better to get the defender there now, before the turn ends, so that it can be organized for next turn. The reason I pulled the 39th INF back so far in the east is that his only "safe" position to the north is where he was, in the mountains west of Grozny. Although it would end up OOS, the German 6-6 MECH could still make a move around it into the hex southeast of Grozny, putting the 39th INF OOS, and in position to make a dash for the Turkish border. I could have left Timoshenko, the 39th INF and the 2-5 MECH in a single stack at Grozny, for a total of 13 factors, but if the next weather roll produces Rain or worse in the North Temperate zone (40% chances) all 3 units would end up OOS. That would prevent them from helping the rest of the line, if the help is needed. I'd rather have them in supply and able to assist wherever the help is needed. That means helping in the South, too (see below).

Starting with the 9th INF in the swamp, and moving clockwise, the defensive strength for each hex is (with die roll modifiers): 8 (+1 ), 10 (+1), 14, 14, 12 (+1), 14, 12

Now, for the South:

quote:

Here is what I did with these units:

1. (Repeat) HQ-I Yeremenko railed to the mountain hex southeast of the "Armenia" label
2. Kuybyshev MIL takes the place of the 1st CAV
3. 1st CAV moves to the hex west of Baku
4. 50th INF and Astrakhan MIL both move to the river bend 2 hexes west of Baku

What this does:

The only attack that the Axis can make that leads directly to either Baku or the Turkish border is on the stack in the river bend or on Yeremenko. The best they can get against Yeremenko is 18:12 (3:2 +1 Assault) from a single hexside, and the best they can get against the river bend is 15:9 (3:2 -1 Blitz, with a 33% chance at 2:1 -1 Blitz), from 2 hexsides. I could have railed the 2-5 Mech from Timoshenko to Yeremenko, but that would still have a 25% chance to end up with a 3:2 Assault, but with a +2 modifier. At best it would be a 1:1 +2, and that is the same thing as a 3:2 +1 Assault. The benefit is that it places a 2nd unit there to take the loss if only 1 unit is killed (40% chance), but it also leaves Timoshenko facing a potential 3:1 Assault in the North.

If the Germans try the attack on Yeremenko at 3:2 +1 odds, there's a 30% chance that one of the Corps will be killed in addition to the Division. They only have 4 full Corps in the South, and all of them are needed to activate Turkey. They'll want to wait another impulse before they try the attack.

The MIL in the mountains is a sacrifice. It holds up the push toward either goal by blocking HQ-A Guderian and the MECH stacked with him . . . for a single impulse, but it might be enough to hold on to Baku or to prevent the Turks from joining the war, or both -- until next turn. It is now Allied Impulse #7 (10% chance to end the turn), and the Germans probably won't attack Yeremenko during Axis Impulse #9 (30% chance to end the turn). For Allied Impulse #11, the chance to end the turn goes up to 50% to 70% (depending on how many of the Allies Pass). That means the earliest shot at killing Yeremenko and keeping all Corps alive would be Axis Impulse #12, and Turkey almost certainly remains neutral for the rest of the turn. (From the German perspective, this might convince me to suck in my gut and try the 3:2 +1 attack).

So, here's what the overall defense looks like:

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 2356

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/8/2012 11:23:44 AM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

I'm starting to get the sense that MWiF just likes offensive operations better than defensive operations. Once again, the defender lost out in a combat. This time it was Air-to-Air Combat over La Rochelle:

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 2357

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/8/2012 11:48:46 AM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

The attack on La Rochelle started out at 15:4 and could have ended up as an 18:6 (3:1 +1) attack. Instead, it has a 50% chance at 5:1 odds!

The attack for Allied Impulse #7:

And the results:

Attack on La Rochelle: Assault, Fractional Odds .279 (Yes), Roll = 1 = 2/1 (MAR and INF Division destroyed, attackers disorganized)

Well, gotta love those Americans, don't you? They sure screwed this one up very nicely, didn't they? And they also ruined my theory about the game loving offensive operations. It was looking so good, too, with the Fractional Odds Roll won for the 5:1 Assault.

So, here's how it plays out: the Americans lose 2 units, the INF Division and the Marine. The reason I chose the MAR over the MOT, even though it is more expensive, is that there are a lot of MOT in the USA Force Pools, and none of them are as good as this one. There are no MAR left in the Force Pools, so I know I can rebuild this one instantly. Now there is a choice to be made with the MOT. Do I have him take control of the port or do I leave him where he is? The reason I might consider leaving him there is that the CW fighter that flew as Ground Support returned to that hex. If the Axis gets 2 more impulses this turn, they can probably overrun it, costing the CW 5 Build Points.

In the end, I decided to take the port. With the Marine lost and the only chance to reinforce this area relying on the CW taking a Naval Action when it should probably Pass instead, that MOT needs the port for evacuation. Besides, HQ-I MacArthur can move into that hex if it seems necessary. That means the sacrifice of an American LND, but it is one I would probably scrap anyway, and the USA can afford the losses much more than the CW.

Alternatively, while it would again rely on a CW Combined Action when it should probably Pass, HQ-I Clark can land here with a CW INF, and I can move an American TRS loaded with a MOT Division and an ENG Division into La Rochelle. I don't really like this option, though. The Allies want winter to start ASAP.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 2/8/2012 11:51:42 AM >

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 2358

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/8/2012 12:22:30 PM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

Now that the Storms have settled into Rain in the Arctic, the TB-3 is finally able to reorganize the 2nd MECH near Kubyshev. Also, while it may seem like a waste of Oil, HQ-A Eisenhower and HQ-I Nimitz both reorganized some sealift. Although the USA expects to Pass for the rest of the turn, it doesn't hurt to be prepared. If something comes up that forces either the CW or USA to choose some other action, these transports can get back to more useful sea areas, and then return to base where there are more units to ship at the end of the turn.

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 2359

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/8/2012 12:39:44 PM

composer99

Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline

The animist dice spirits are punishing your timidity.

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 2360

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/8/2012 1:40:43 PM

Klydon

Posts: 2251
Joined: 11/28/2010
Status: offline

I think a rethink of the longer term Allied strategic position/strategy is probably in order soon.

First, the time for "distraction landings" in Europe proper to help the Russians has pretty much passed. The Turks are coming into the war and the Germans are going to be headed back soon, which dooms any Allied invasion on the mainland during 1941/42 probably. All it does is fritter away Allied units while they are trying to build up and it delays a meaningful landing where the Allies are there to stay.

The Allies need to concentrate on keeping India at this point and establishing themselves in probably Morroco with an eye towards building up a base of operations to kick the Axis out of Africa and reopen Gibraltar. With that, the Allies also need to concentrate their fleet and deal with the Italians at Cape St Vincent. Once that force takes heavy losses, the Allies should have run of the European theater in the sea department from a surface perspective (subs still have to be dealt with).

The Russians are going to hold as long as they can in the Caucasus, but the area is doomed. The Russians also need to look at force preservation at some point in order to tie down as many German forces as possible over the long haul.

(in reply to composer99)

Post #: 2361

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/8/2012 1:46:04 PM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: composer99

The animist dice spirits are punishing your timidity.

Maybe so.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to composer99)

Post #: 2362

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/8/2012 1:56:35 PM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Klydon

I think a rethink of the longer term Allied strategic position/strategy is probably in order soon.

First, the time for "distraction landings" in Europe proper to help the Russians has pretty much passed. The Turks are coming into the war and the Germans are going to be headed back soon, which dooms any Allied invasion on the mainland during 1941/42 probably. All it does is fritter away Allied units while they are trying to build up and it delays a meaningful landing where the Allies are there to stay.

The Allies need to concentrate on keeping India at this point and establishing themselves in probably Morroco with an eye towards building up a base of operations to kick the Axis out of Africa and reopen Gibraltar. With that, the Allies also need to concentrate their fleet and deal with the Italians at Cape St Vincent. Once that force takes heavy losses, the Allies should have run of the European theater in the sea department from a surface perspective (subs still have to be dealt with).

The Russians are going to hold as long as they can in the Caucasus, but the area is doomed. The Russians also need to look at force preservation at some point in order to tie down as many German forces as possible over the long haul.

For the moment, the Japanese are stalled in India, but there is an attack coming up in Burma that might allow some troops to push forward when the good weather comes.

The "distraction landings" time came and went before the Allies really had much chance to launch any, which is sad for them. I am all for a sustained buildup of forces, particularly air power. I hesitate to build up in the Spanish Sahara before kicking the Italians out of Cape St. Vincent (or at least before there is a good chance of it). I like the "beachheads" in Murmansk and Archangel. The Germans are going to need to clear these out, preferable before the USSR is conquered (if it is), or there are going to be a lot of US forces entering these ports and trying to liberate Russia. That means the Germans need to divert some forces here, making more landings in Western Europe possible.

This is the main reason I like the build-up in the UK and N. Ireland; it allows reinforcement of Karelia, while still offering the opportunity for invasions of Europe. It also avoids supply issues that might result from having to have a lot of forces in desert terrain. That may not be as big a problem as I think, but since the French and CW can't co-operate, getting those CVBs back for France will probably take a little fancy footwork when making attacks on N. African capitals.

Anyway, the Wallies need to build up the forces first.

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Klydon)

Post #: 2363

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/8/2012 2:21:28 PM

composer99

Posts: 2923
Joined: 6/6/2005
From: Ottawa, Canada
Status: offline

IMO the Allies should for the time being:

(1) Establish beachheads in the mountains of northern Spain as these cannot be easily crushed by the Axis. If the Allies can secure a port and a few surrounding hexes they can use cheap infantry to stay ensconced indefinitely, while threatening to expand the beachhead if the Axis fails to bottle it up with sufficient force.

(2) Build up army & air forces in Spanish Sahara. The air forces should initially consist primarily of land-based air to fly to sea to support naval operations to deter or destroy the Italian navy and the Axis naval air forces. This will allow the armies and tactical air forces amassing in Spanish Sahara to march up with supply into Morocco.

(3) Continue the march up East Africa (leapfrogging ahead whenever possible) to establish a viable threat to Egypt requiring a response by the Germans. Additional reinforcements of first-line Allied units, while difficult, will be required.

Unless Rommel is destroyed or shattered this turn, between him and the MECH and any new air reinforcements (especially FTR2 and Stukas) the Germans send to France, the Allied beachhead there will eventually be crushed as it is now IMO effectively contained. Now that the Allies have La Rochelle they can at least look into evacuating more efficiently - although while they still have local air superiority they might be able to push south into Bordeaux/Bayonne where the Axis have to make a real effort to dig them out.

< Message edited by composer99 -- 2/8/2012 2:24:23 PM >

_____________________________

~ Composer99

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 2364

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/8/2012 2:39:10 PM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

I have 6 Axis attacks planned for Impulse #9, and I almost decided to go for a 7th attack. Rostov is getting 7 factors of Ground Support, and the attack on the Siberian INF is getting 10 factors plus a 6-factor FTR escort (which the Soviets will not intercept). The values below include these numbers.

The 7th attack would have been on the American MOT in La Rochelle. It would be a 3:2 +1 attack, with 2 Rumanian MIL available to supply losses. The reason I decided against it is that I want to have at least a few land units in France available to pull out of enemy ZOC if there is another Axis impulse this turn. I don't want the French Partisan number getting too high. Right now it is at 16%, and that should drop after the Italian/Yugoslavian attack.
-----
Edit: And yes, I decided to risk a MECH Corps trying to get rid of HQ-I Yeremenko. I doubt the Turks can be brought into the game this turn anyway, so I'd rather not have him become organized again. Eventually the Germans will get them into the war.
-----
2nd Edit: I goofed. I forgot the Americans have an ART next to that CW INF Division, so they can double his factors, making this a 5:1 attack and not a 10:1 attack. That makes me extra happy I didn't add that 7th attack.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 2/8/2012 2:49:20 PM >

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 2365

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/8/2012 3:40:58 PM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

I think composer99 was right about the game punishing me for timid behavior. The reason? HQ-I von Leeb attempted to provide HQ Support for the Rostov attack, and the '1' on the roll gave it to him. Hopefully, that will waste a '1' that could have come up during combat. Yes, I know that's just a wild fantasy, since every die roll has the same chance to come out with any number, but we humans are emotional beings.

So, the attacks for Axis Impulse #9:

And the results:

Attack on Burma [93, 123]: Blitz, Roll = 1 = -/1 (TERR destroyed, attackers disorganized)
Attack on France [59, 26]: Assault, Roll = 6 = */2S
Attack on USSR [67, 73]: Assault, Roll = 10+1 = 11 = */2S
Attack on Persia [70 ,76]: Assault, Fractional Odds .792 (No), Roll = 10-1 = 9 = */2S
Attack on USSR [61, 67]: Blitz, Fractional Odds .581 (Yes), Roll = 7+1 = 8 = */2B
Attack on Rostov: Assault, Fractional Odds .982 (No), Roll = 5+2 = 7 = 1/2 (Soviet PARA and ART destroyed, German 6-4 INF destroyed, all units disorganized)

Burma should have been an easy attack, and the game decided to punish me for opening my big mouth again with another '1' on the die roll. Chittagong is now absolutely safe for the rest of the turn, I'd say.

-----
In France, the Commonwealth decided on an Assault, even though a Blitz might have let the INF Division survive, because they would love to encourage Partisan activity in France by disorganizing the attackers. The Assault CRT means a 50/50 chance for that to happen, and at a cost of a miniscule 2 BP. It didn't happen, but it was worth a shot. He would have died anyway, even on the Blitz CRT.
-----
Next up is probably the key attack of the impulse: HQ-I Yeremenko going up against the German armor. He has a 60% chance of death seeking him out, but he also has a 30% chance to kill off 2 of the German attackers . . . but he is apparently the biggest loser in the world, fighting with his eyes closed.

Another '10' on a key attack, and he didn't even take the stinking Tank Destroyer with him to the grave! The best that can be said for him is that he disorganized the enemy, but that was inevitable. With all 3 units moving in to occupy the mountain hex, there is now no way for the Russians to keep the Turks out of the war.
-----
The next attack, in Persia, will determine whether or not the Germans can activate Turkey this turn (assuming it lasts long enough). Only a roll of '9' or '10' will keep the Germans organized at 4:1 -1, and anything above a '7' does the job at 5:1 -1 . . . and without the Fractional Odds Roll, the Germans still did it, with another '10' on the attack roll. I think the Russians are failing their morale checks at this point. They know the end is near.
-----
The Siberian INF was fighting at 4:1 +1 odds in name only. With a 90% chance to upgrade to 5:1 +1, the Germans have a good chance to kill him off. In this case, though, the Blitz CRT is the choice. If he is Retreated, he will help one of the neighboring hexes with 10 factors. If he is Shattered, he gets to come back wherever he is needed. If he is killed, well, that's what would have happened on the Assault CRT, so what does it matter? The next German attack can really only come from a single hex, so they'll have a hard time with it even if they remain organized. Besides, the turn could end soon . . . but in the end, it didn't matter which table was used. The Siberian was killed, and the Germans get to continue fighting, with 18 factors moving into the hex.
-----
The final attack of the impulse is Rostov. There was only one choice here, the Assault CRT, since any Shatter, Blitz, or Retreat means death for all of the defenders. This started as a 2:1 +2 attack, moved up to 3:1 +2 as a result of the HQ Support roll, and had a 3.6% chance to move up again to 4:1 +2 odds. I mention this because the Germans are having fun, indeed, with the help of their mandate from Bog on High, and I wouldn't bet against them today. So, there is a 50% chance to take Rostov out of the picture . . . and the Germans fell just short of the mark. Small victory for the USSR. Tiny, in fact. I know that the PARA and ART are more costly than the Siberian, but the Germans could actually mount another attack this turn, so the strongest unit has to survive.

I'd say this is a TKO by the Germans, though.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 2/8/2012 3:42:06 PM >

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 2366

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/8/2012 4:04:43 PM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

To end the impulse, Germany rebased 3 FTRs into France, Italy sent its Lend-Lease bomber from Denmark to France, and Japan sent 2 long range fighters from Canton to the Andaman Islands.

The turn didn't end, and the weather looks terrific for Allied Impulse #11:

So, here is a question for you: Should the USSR choose a Pass Action?

End of Turn Chance: 50%
If all but one Pass: 60%
If all Pass: 70%

If the turn doesn't end, the Axis impulse will have a 60% chance of ending the turn, giving them a shot at a double move. Also, with the Fine weather, both the Germans and the Japanese can advance in the Arctic, plus the Italians can cut the Trans-Caspian Railway. Germany decided to risk disorganizing a MECH to capture Astrakhan this past impulse, and they'll be able to activate Turkey in 2 more impulses. If the Italians reach the port of Krasnovodsk (and they can), they'll have a supply link through the Kara-Kum desert that doesn't need to go through the Arabian Sea. That leaves them in position to capture Samarkand and Tashkent in only a handful of impulses -- say by early 1942.

I'll post a few pictures of the remaining Soviet troops, and then I'm going to take a break for a while.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Red Prince -- 2/8/2012 4:05:49 PM >

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 2367

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/8/2012 4:19:10 PM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

Here is an overview of the Caspian Sea region. The Iraqi CAV, just over the border from Persia, can reach Krasnovodsk during the next Axis impulse.

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

Always listen to experts. They'll tell you what can't be done and why. Then do it!
-Lazarus Long, RAH

(in reply to Red Prince)

Post #: 2368

RE: MWiF Global War Hot-Seat (AAR) - 2/8/2012 4:19:14 PM

Red Prince

Posts: 3686
Joined: 4/8/2011
From: Bangor, Maine, USA
Status: offline

The Japanese in Siberia can put together a 2:1 attack unless the MIL retreats across the river. Even if he does, the Japanese are likely to try for a 1:1 attack.