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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton)

 
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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/4/2012 3:55:29 AM   
Michael T


Posts: 4443
Joined: 10/22/2006
From: Queensland, Australia.
Status: offline 		My OOB has stalled because of the 900K ARM sink for Rifle squad upgrades. It will go up as soon as I find rifles for the 200K of men in the pool.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/4/2012 4:00:20 AM   
Michael T


Posts: 4443
Joined: 10/22/2006
From: Queensland, Australia.
Status: offline 		Its the show losses screen. I will post a pic this turn, unless things go badly and the propaganda minister steps in :)

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/4/2012 4:06:12 AM   
Michael T


Posts: 4443
Joined: 10/22/2006
From: Queensland, Australia.
Status: offline 		My OOB has been steady at around 8.75 Million for the last 6 turns, where as yours has dropped from 3.8 Million to 3.7 Million.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/4/2012 9:07:03 PM   
Michael T


Posts: 4443
Joined: 10/22/2006
From: Queensland, Australia.
Status: offline 		Ok this turn it cost me 98,000 troops for 30001 hun (this is assaults only, no attrition losses), permanent losses. This is close to 3.3 to 1. My worst loss rate to date. I am still very happy with that. You had a lot more reserve activations Pelton and I think it had some effect but some of the effect is also due to that I have a ARM black hole at the moment due to the so called Rifle Squad upgrade. So many of my units are no longer 100% TOE. This will improve in time. I would not care if I lost 150,000 troops to get 30,000 Axis so you have a way to go yet to stop the rot. If you can manage 6:1 then that would cause a problem for me. But it won't happen. I have more an more Corp sized units coming on line and they are the real killers.

Turn delayed as heatwave + teething baby = very unhappy baby = less game time. Turn out tonight.


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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/4/2012 10:44:09 PM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
Joined: 4/9/2006
Status: offline 		I beleive the perma loses are on 50% of your loses.

You lost more like 200,000 + 40,000 to atrition or 250,000ish.

I beleive then men in manpower pool are from the 50% that were not perma lost.

I have 120,000 men in my pool and 100,000 arm pts. The men in pool are from combat not because of a lack of arm pts.

I think the black hole is being caused by massive loses in men and equipment. You will be up-grading to 42 squads until 1944 at the rate your going.

Anyone have the for sure on this?

I think a single squad is 10 arm
guns 10-30 per
afv's 20 per
planes 20 per

If you add up the men lost in each battle it seems allot higher then the perma lost and is



< Message edited by Pelton -- 12/4/2012 10:49:03 PM >

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/4/2012 11:05:19 PM   
sjohnson

 

Posts: 119
Joined: 12/17/2007
Status: offline 		Ok, I think I have this figured out now in tracking losses. All that really matters is checking the changes in pools each turn and comparing. So, for example:

Turn 1
Axis kia = 50,000
Axis pow = 10,000
Axis disabled = 500,000

Soviet kia = 200,000
Soviet pow = 100,000
Soviet disabled = 700,000

Total losses report as 560,000 Axis to 1,000,000 Soviet.

Now, let's say you get to Turn 2 and the pools look like this:

Axis kia = 60,000 (+10K)
Axis pow = 11,000 (+1K)
Axis disabled = 510,000 (+10K)
Total = 581,000

Soviet kia = 215,000 (+15K)
Soviet pow = 102,000 (+2K)
Soviet disabled = 740,000 (+40K)
Total = 1,057,000

If you just look at total loss it looks like Axis lost 21,000 to Soviet 57,000 (or 2.714 : 1 ratio).

If you just look at permanent loss of KIA & POW then it looks like 11,000 Axis to 17,000 Soviet or 1.545 : 1.

But, what really happened - as best I can tell from testing and questions in various threads, the following:
1) Axis really lost 10,000 killed and 1,000 POW. They actually also lost 15,000 disabled who will return at the rate of 1% per turn. Why 15,000 - because 1% of the 500,000 would have returned to the active manpower pool and if no additional losses had occurred, the new disabled pool would be 495,000.

2) Soviet really lost 15,000 killed, 2,000 POW and 47,000 disabled (40,000 positive change plus 7,000 who were removed from the disabled pool). The Soviet disabled pool reduced by 1% per turn; but, as confirmed by Helpless in the tech support forum, only 1/2 of these go back to active; the rest are lost but not updated in the kia or pow totals (I suppose died of wounds or long term invalid).

3) Thus, one way to slice it is that really the Soviet loss is 15,000 killed, 2,000 POW and 3,500 disabled who were permanently removed from play. Or a ratio of 20,500 Soviet perm loss to 11,000 Axis perm loss.

4) Another way to view it is that 1/2 of all Soviets who go to the disabled pool are actually permanent losses in the long term. Thus, the real Soviet loss due to action in the turn was 15,000 kia, 2,000 pow, and 1/2 of the new 47,000 disabled or 23,500. Total of 40,500 vs 11,000 Axis perm losses.

Of course, disabled return all depends on how much time is left in the game. One can work an algorithm for that if desired to see the permanent effect on the various manpower available from current game time to end game. It is tedious.

Anyways, I think this is correct - I could be corrected by one of the higher game coding powers though.

While it seems complicated, I think it is important to really understand what is happening in losses to really understand if the combat results and loss ratios are indicative of historical or not.

< Message edited by sjohnson -- 12/4/2012 11:21:18 PM >

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/4/2012 11:17:19 PM   
Peltonx


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Status: offline 		Ok finally that looks right.

Because I look at the battles add them up and I am getting 4 or 5 to 1 or better ratio.

I look at perma dead and its 2.7-3.3 to 1 per turn.

I am guessing MT is lossing ALLOT more men then he thinks he is.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/4/2012 11:20:26 PM   
Peltonx


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Status: offline 		You are the man by the way sj


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CD-E-LDc384




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< Message edited by Pelton -- 12/4/2012 11:21:56 PM >

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/4/2012 11:24:56 PM   
Peltonx


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Status: offline 		As MT reported his losses have increased.

I am 1/2 set up in the to be named later defence.

If and when the person that came up with it comes forward.

Kinda waiting to see if it really works.

So basicly its the Pelton Defence if it fails and the master minds if it works heheheh

I will post next turns data and we can all figure it out.

By the way anyone esle thats got some crazy idea I am willing to give it a shot if it looks good on paper.

< Message edited by Pelton -- 12/4/2012 11:29:55 PM >

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/4/2012 11:29:09 PM   
Michael T


Posts: 4443
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From: Queensland, Australia.
Status: offline 		Before the black hole I had 600K of ARM saved. And it was increasing by around 80K a turn with assaults running at around half what I am doing now. I am not worried about ARM. My OOB is holding and will increase once the ARM's get back in the black. You can see it how you want Pelton. I am and will continue to grind your Army in to the dust. Time will tell who is right. EOS.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/4/2012 11:32:20 PM   
sillyflower


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton


If and when the person that came up with it comes forward.




He was a king of Pontus called Pyrrhus

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/4/2012 11:32:29 PM   
Peltonx


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Status: offline 		Once this is set-up it will only take me a 20-30 mins a turn by the looks.

It looks like I will shortly have allot of extra time.





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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/4/2012 11:32:43 PM   
sjohnson

 

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Joined: 12/17/2007
Status: offline 		So if you look at this, reflecting the entire game history I would assess this as:

Total Axis perm losses = 583,306
As there is +100 turns or more left before game end the entire disabled pool will recover eventually.

Soviet total perm losses = 1,994,803
Of the disabled, the entire pool will return eventually, but, 1/2 will be lost and not recorded = add 864,388
Total = 2,859,191

Ratio at current = 4.901 Soviet per 1 German permanent long term loss (ie forever gone from the game).

Now, this is not wholly accurate, because as the game has proceeded about 60 turns by now; there has already been some disabled losses that have been permanently removed. If the average disabled pool from game beginning has been say 700,000 then you could assume 60 turns * 1% * 700,000 * 1/2 permanently removed = 210,000 additional losses making the ratio of permanent long term loss at 5.26:1.

Sounds great heh? However, one now has to look at the strategic situation and the nature of the Soviet losses, many of these captured will probably not be repeated - thus, if one took the 1,000,000 Soviet POW out the real ratio in permanent losses looks like 3.4 to 1.

What really matters now is what is the rate of change on both sides.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/4/2012 11:37:52 PM   
Peltonx


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Status: offline 		I am guessing I need 5 to 1 long run from here on out.

Based on your in put and last few turns it was running about 4 to 1





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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/5/2012 2:18:43 AM   
Michael T


Posts: 4443
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From: Queensland, Australia.
Status: offline 		Whatever figure you come up with Pelton, the fact is it will get worse for you. Not improve. Jees its July 1942, the Wehrmacht should be kicking ass. Not worrying about whether they can survive another 3 years. You can't see the forest for the tree your stuck in. Your base morale, reinforcements, replacements are getting less as the game goes on. My power increases. I am supremely confident of victory. You are trying to turn your defence in to some automated mathematical machine. This situation we are in now is only temporary as I lack the big toys that need to make motion a factor. All there is now is extreme attrition. Thats all I can do. I will keep doing it, methodically until a point is reached when the game will become something much more than this slugfest. You are so afraid of losses you refuse to even make local attacks anymore. This in itself has sent me a very loud message about things on your side of the fence.

Anyway no more on this from me now. I have my theory and I am sticking to it. See you in Berlin.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/5/2012 9:07:54 AM   
randallw

 

Posts: 2057
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Status: offline 		A few random armament requirements of randomly chosen Soviet fighting elements:

Rifle squad(-), serves 8-1941 to 12-1943: 8 points
122mm howitzer, 1-1938 to end of war: 60 points
T-34 M1942, 7-1942 to 12-1944; 377 points
Yak-1, 12-1940 to 9-1942; 376 points

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/5/2012 1:34:29 PM   
Peltonx


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quote:

ORIGINAL: randallw

A few random armament requirements of randomly chosen Soviet fighting elements:

Rifle squad(-), serves 8-1941 to 12-1943: 8 points
122mm howitzer, 1-1938 to end of war: 60 points
T-34 M1942, 7-1942 to 12-1944; 377 points
Yak-1, 12-1940 to 9-1942; 376 points


My question is 98,000 perma deaths = 10,888 squads x 8 = 87,111 ?

I know some of the lost men is from guys in equipment ect, but without factoring in disabled 50% which do not return might that be a good rough number?

I guess someone would have to trend that for a few turns on russian side.

If MT would provide that number would be great. Not just for this game but future games and other players. This would give us a rough # to put a % to for most any game in general.

I know aircraft losses have been huge, but I dont think the players have any real control over that. Guns/tanks and planes auto build. We really only control them buy building units they can be put into enmass.

MT seems to have 361 armament production what does that = in per turn output?

Ok found it 1942-1945 = 200 per or 361 x 200 = 72000. This will grow over time as factories grow. Output is static.




< Message edited by Pelton -- 12/5/2012 1:59:08 PM >

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/5/2012 3:32:06 PM   
Peltonx


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Status: offline 		Turn 59 GHC armaments: 60,000 Turn 54 GHC OOB: 3,840,000

Russian perma losses this turn: 98,757 Total lost: 3,723,000
Russian disabled this turn: 71,211 Total disabled:1,782,166
Total losses this turn from disabled perma( 1/2%) and perma lost: 134,362
Russian gun losses this turn: 1140
Russian afv losses this turn: 331

Armament cost to replace lost squads/AFV/guns/planes = ?

Russian Men OOB: 6,680,000
Net of: + 6,000
Russian Gun OOB:105,129
Net of: - 1208

German losses this turn: 44,000 Total dead: 1,677,000
All disabled return to German pool 1% per turn.
GHC OOB: 3,610,000 Rifle Squads: 45,796 Net change: ?
Net of: -104,000
GHC Gun OOB: 38,610
Net of: - 263

———–Won——–—Lost———Ratio
SHC——5—————32—–——13%
GHC—————————
———Combat perma + perma lost disabled——-
SHC—— 134,362
GHC—— 44,000

Casualties losses ratio: 3 to 1

Ratio is still to low. I need to up it to 4 to 1 at least. Be several more turns before I am completely changed over.

Not sure if I am figuring the disabled right or wrong based on: the total is removing 1% (1/2% to pool and 1/2% thrown out) per turn then adding in the disabled from this turn or 17,821. If that’s true then disabled losses were 71,211 / 2 because 1/2 never return = 35,605.

The a big part of the drop in GHC manpower is from what I am doing and not MT. The OOB will drop again over the next few turns then should reflect combat only. As Big A and a few others, plus from my own exp about 16,000 German rifle squads is the tipping point. I did not get that data from last turn so it will be another turn before I can trend that. I am tring to increase rifle squads and not OOB.

One interesting thing is gun losses. SHC did not replace any lost guns and same for tanks.
My OOB dropped slightly in both cases and SHC dropped more then what was lost in combat.





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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/5/2012 4:37:52 PM   
gingerbread


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quote:

ORIGINAL: randallw

A few random armament requirements of randomly chosen Soviet fighting elements:

Rifle squad(-), serves 8-1941 to 12-1943: 8 points
122mm howitzer, 1-1938 to end of war: 60 points
T-34 M1942, 7-1942 to 12-1944; 377 points
Yak-1, 12-1940 to 9-1942; 376 points


AFV & AC consumes supply during construction, not ARM.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton
MT seems to have 361 armament production what does that = in per turn output?

Ok found it 1942-1945 = 200 per or 361 x 200 = 72000. This will grow over time as factories grow. Output is static.


More like 100-105k. It's 361 x ~1.2 x 250 (the ~1.2 is the '42-'45 multiplier, nominally 1.3, but the result is rounded down for each factory site)

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/5/2012 5:07:21 PM   
Peltonx


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Status: offline 		Thanks for info.

So basicly guns and squad consume arm pts then. Probably why afv+AC rate is so high.

105k then thanks.

Wow guns are a big sink after looking at arm replacement rates.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/5/2012 5:20:46 PM   
sjohnson

 

Posts: 119
Joined: 12/17/2007
Status: offline 		Looking at the two loss screens the actual permanent loss effect is as follows:

German - killed 25,150; pow 434; change in disabled 18,756; actual disabled casualties caused in the turn ~29,500. All disabled will return eventually. Total permanent losses = 25,584

Soviet - killed 61,034; pow 1,338; change in disabled 53,390; actual disabled casualties caused in the turn ~71,400. 1/2 of disabled will return eventually, others will be permanent loss. Total permanent removed from game = 98,067

Permanent loss from game ratio is 3.83:1 Soviet:Axis

Gingerbread is correct - only thing that consumes Arm points is squads, guns, support, etc. and ammunition. Best I can tell by having run a few turns and tracked differences in build pools is that ammo typically runs about 1 arm point per 2 tons of ammo (depends on admin rolls, etc. in the conversion process so it is random).

Soviet armament production should be around 105,000 per turn with 361 factories (361*250*1.3 multiple then fudging for some rounding).

< Message edited by sjohnson -- 12/5/2012 5:21:16 PM >

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/5/2012 5:44:30 PM   
Peltonx


Posts: 7250
Joined: 4/9/2006
Status: offline 		I can live with that. If rifle squads stay static.

All my infantry divisions are above 90% toe, other then a dozen. They are in the 80% range. My average morale is increasing still. One battle SHC attacked 5 times, before winning the hex. I set-up a trap. 3 units from 3 deferent army. I have set-up 4 more "traps" so far this turn 3x and 4 2x for next turn.

Mot all 90%+ panzer all above 80% most over 90%.

The area I had the set-up flipped over in the losses per battle were about 30% higher then none flipped area.

I have 2 Corp now as a complete reserve and will get I Corp off line soon.

So I will have 9 Infantry and 3 mot divisions as a reserve. I can use these in the right spot, by slitting 2 divisions into regiments. Put them in 6 front line hexes as spotters. This way all the SU from 18th will be in reserve plus 7 Inf divisions and 3 Mot. Counter to the normal SHC bubble push.

< Message edited by Pelton -- 12/5/2012 5:45:51 PM >

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/5/2012 5:56:22 PM   
Peltonx


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Status: offline 		I would have to say its working so far.

It took SHC 14 more helds to get 1 less win then last turn. SHC lost more and GHC lost less.

Hopefully I can get fully converted this turn.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/5/2012 7:00:42 PM   
Peltonx


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Status: offline 		The odds before retreats are close to 6.5 to 1 the battle at 64,46 is a good example.

21785 SHC losses GHC 3500 6.25 to 1 and I held the hex, looks like WW1




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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/5/2012 7:12:55 PM   
Michael T


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From: Queensland, Australia.
Status: offline 		Pelton, I have to ask you to leave this thread now. Please take your stats, theories etc back to your own AAR. You no longer have permission to view this thread. Sorry, but for me this is a game I intend to win. Not an open experiment. No hard feelings.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/5/2012 7:33:58 PM   
Michael T


Posts: 4443
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From: Queensland, Australia.
Status: offline 		Some things Pelton and his cohorts seem to have missed. First a return rate of 1% does not mean you get 100% back after 100 turns. After 100 turns you still only have 63% of the total returned. Simple math any High School Grad should know. Second they seem oblivious to to the rule regarding the percentage of Germans returned. Only 75% of disabled returned go to the German pool. Anyway full report on the game state in a turn or two.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/5/2012 7:43:38 PM   
Michael T


Posts: 4443
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Status: offline 		Pelton :
quote:

I am playing you not other people.


It seems I am not so fortunate as Pelton

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/5/2012 10:35:00 PM   
Michael T


Posts: 4443
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Status: offline 		On Armaments.

Last turn I added up all the ARM points lost for both sides for my assaults only. The Germans lost 35K worth of ARM. They get 22K per turn in 1942. If his figures are correct (and I think they are unreliable) in that he has 60K of ARM in the pool, this means he only has around 5~6 more turns before the cupboard runs dry. There are still over 20 turns left in 1942. Then what? His ARM will go up to 35K per turn in 1943. But he can expect a higher loss rate by then.

As for my situation I get 104K of ARM per turn. Last turn I lost 86K in ARM's. That’s still 18K in the black. But I am still battling this damn rifle upgrade thing. So until that is done with ( I estimate another 6-8 turns for it to finish) I won't accumulate any ARM's for Arty XX in October. So this is not ideal. But I expect my loss ratio to improve as more Corp come online. But this is the bit Pelton doesn't grasp. I don't care if I win the battle, I don't care if his morale gets to 99, sure its good for me to win as more losses are put on him but it matters not to my strategy for 1942. All I care about is bleeding him at a rate that is unsustainable for him but is sustainable for me, or worst case worse for him than me. So he either dies or retreats. All good for Russia. So far that is the case.

Manpower, Supply, Tanks, Aircraft and AP are not a problem for me. ARM's are the limiting factor. He has two problems, ARM's and Manpower. He is now I imagine disbanding anything that doesn't carry a rifle, nothing new here except he is doing it in 1942 rather than 1944. It is a temporary fix. The number of units he can disband is finite. Cripes I could disband several 100K of units myself if need be. But I won't need too. I think it is just possible that this game won't go much beyond the end of 1942 before Pelton finally realizes that he faces an impossible task and pulls his head out of the sand and faces up to reality. Otherwise 1943 and beyond is going to be a hell of a lot of fun for me, at long last :)

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/5/2012 11:07:10 PM   
BletchleyGeek


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Michael T

On Armaments.

Last turn I added up all the ARM points lost for both sides for my assaults only. The Germans lost 35K worth of ARM. They get 22K per turn in 1942. If his figures are correct (and I think they are unreliable) in that he has 60K of ARM in the pool, this means he only has around 5~6 more turns before the cupboard runs dry. There are still over 20 turns left in 1942. Then what? His ARM will go up to 35K per turn in 1943. But he can expect a higher loss rate by then.

As for my situation I get 104K of ARM per turn. Last turn I lost 86K in ARM's. That’s still 18K in the black. But I am still battling this damn rifle upgrade thing. So until that is done with ( I estimate another 6-8 turns for it to finish) I won't accumulate any ARM's for Arty XX in October. So this is not ideal. But I expect my loss ratio to improve as more Corp come online. But this is the bit Pelton doesn't grasp. I don't care if I win the battle, I don't care if his morale gets to 99, sure its good for me to win as more losses are put on him but it matters not to my strategy for 1942. All I care about is bleeding him at a rate that is unsustainable for him but is sustainable for me, or worst case worse for him than me. So he either dies or retreats. All good for Russia. So far that is the case.

Manpower, Supply, Tanks, Aircraft and AP are not a problem for me. ARM's are the limiting factor. He has two problems, ARM's and Manpower. He is now I imagine disbanding anything that doesn't carry a rifle, nothing new here except he is doing it in 1942 rather than 1944. It is a temporary fix. The number of units he can disband is finite. Cripes I could disband several 100K of units myself if need be. But I won't need too. I think it is just possible that this game won't go much beyond the end of 1942 before Pelton finally realizes that he faces an impossible task and pulls his head out of the sand and faces up to reality. Otherwise 1943 and beyond is going to be a hell of a lot of fun for me, at long last :)


Very nice write-up Michael (and good remark about the recovery of men from the Disabled pool, too many people forget about that)

Pelton doesn't strike me as being particularly rational. In any case, I wonder if there are other 'upgrades' of Red Army ground elements which may prove an ARM hog during 1942-43. What about SMG Squad and Eng upgrades? The numbers of these two types of ground elements might be quite substantial if you've been forming Mot Bdes and Sapper Rgts.

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Post #: 419
RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 12/5/2012 11:15:53 PM   
Michael T


Posts: 4443
Joined: 10/22/2006
From: Queensland, Australia.
Status: offline 		There is another big hog mid 43. Another Rifle Squad thing. I am not really expecting to have to face that one though in this game

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(in reply to BletchleyGeek)
Post #: 420
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