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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 4:29:26 PM   
Canoerebel


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Pacific: Very robust enemy activity. Continued BB bombardments to Tarawa and Luganville with CAs bombarding Makin. KB remains at Jaluit with committed air strikes vs. the Tarawa and Makin. Betties based at Malolap flying raids. Lots of enemy shipping at Tabiteua. SigInt that 7th Div. is now bound for Adak (either instead of Akutan or on the way).

Australia: These are all good signs as the Alled moves on Carnavon and Exmouth near the tipping point. Still no signs of detection, though a raid by two Emilys vs. shipping at Perth may draw John's attention. Carrier and bombardment TF raids will commence at Carnavon in three days (or, if any ships detected tomorrow, then in two days). Advance Allied ground units might be four days out of Carnavon. Amphibious TF is due west of Perth and perhaps four to five days from Exmouth. On the assumption that John might remain committed in the Gilberts for an unhealthy amount of time, I'm bringing forward new units to Perth that would handle an invasion of Port Headland, Broome, etc.

Bay of Bengal: Still no concerted offensive action by the Japanese. The second Aussie division bound for the front line of jungle hexes in Burma is in place.

China: Lookin' good.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 4:51:47 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		I'm thinkin' something(s) big is(are) in the works.  John's turns are taking quite a bit of time, his AAR activity is way off, and there's no chatter in here.  The quiet before the storm?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 5:09:01 PM   
Chickenboy


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 5:17:56 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I'm thinkin' something(s) big is(are) in the works.  John's turns are taking quite a bit of time, his AAR activity is way off, and there's no chatter in here.  The quiet before the storm?



I'm sure it must be something like that...unless he is putting in new quarter rounds over the new tiles.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 6:20:24 PM   
Cribtop


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Status: offline 		Perhaps, but anything big would have to come in SOPAC/SWPAC given KB's position and his commitment of troops to Noumea. And anything big there probably helps you more than it hurts you.

PS I guess he could try something in NOPAC, but this would require him to risk exposure to your CVs (he doesn't know they are near Perth) and would not be decisive. Plus, given your attention to garrisons up there, it probably wouldn't even be successful.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 3/26/2013 6:22:18 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 6:36:11 PM   
Canoerebel


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Australia:  Two Allied ground units arrive in the hex adjacent to Carnavon and enemy patrols sight my amphibous TF and the combat TF well offshore (but not the carriers, as best I can tell).  I'm assuming John will load up Carnavon's airfield and I'll try to counter.  My carriers will move to a range of six or seven hexes with SBDs and one Avenger squadron set to naval strike alternate ground strike or pure ground strike.  4EB at Kalgoorlie and a mix of dive bombers and 2EB at Perth and Esperance will join in.  I don't think my combat TF can hit the port tomorrow, but it will loiter nearby, serving as bait more than anything (since it includes Portland and Salt Lake City, it's no pushover).  John may well think this is a move just on Carnavon, though I don't think that changes the configuration of his defenses any (unless he's willing to surrender Carnavon without a big fight but would give a bigger fight for Exmouth, which is possible but not likely).  My amphibious TF is 12 hexes south of Exmouth.  D-Day in three days.

Bay of Bengal:  Still no major response.  Allies ships continue to unload suppy and troops at Akyab.  Several transport and fast transport TFs are inbound to Ramree.  A stout armored unit will reach the front line in the jungle in one or two days.  I may use it to probe forward a bit, but I need to think on that.  An Indian division is departing Chittagong to march to Akyab.  When I buy this unit in a month or so, it will move down the coastal road in support of Ramree.

China:  Looking good.

NoPac:  SigInt that 7th Div. is prepping for Akutan.  Wasp arrives in a week.  I may well send her to NoPac, where she could be of use as long as the main KB is far away.

Pacific:  More heavy attention to the Gilberts.  John really is doing a robust job in marshalling his forces and may well retake the islands, but two things come to mind:  (1) how easily this could have been avoided had he just had one patrol squadron operating here, (2) the opportunity costs he's paying for this concentration (and diversion) of force.  (Thinking this way brings comfort as I survey the might of the concentrated Japanese navy.)

Air War:  The Allies are nearly 1,000 planes ahead in the air war now.  It's really hard to evaluate the air war, but the Allies have done well throughout the game.


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 6:42:12 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
(he doesn't know they are near Perth)


Watch the OPSEC, Cribtop...Was this what you were trying to say?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 6:47:41 PM   
Cribtop


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Status: offline 		Good point - let me clarify that I am not reading John's AAR. My point was only that, based on info CR has provided in this AAR, I deduce that John has no way to know where his CVs are. In other words, readers of this AAR know a move by John up north has no Carrier risk, but HE doesn't know that.

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 3/26/2013 6:48:57 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 6:50:08 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		That's the way I took your comment, Cribtop.

John may have guessed now that my carriers are near Perth since they didn't participate in or react to the Gilberts situations and given the sudden activity near Carnavon.  That's one reason I'm so glad to see many Bettys at work in the Gilberts.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 6:57:02 PM   
Cribtop


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Status: offline 		I suspect your moves on multiple fronts are giving John fits. To that end, I would consider the Burma armored probe at the right time (namely just prior to your next big move somewhere else). John will be expecting an offensive move in Burma and will assign great weight to such a probe. Same with Pt. Hedland/Broome. He will expect this to be the follow on to Carnarvon/Exmouth (assuming you prevail there), so a fake invasion task force popping up at the right time should have a disproportionate impact.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 7:08:07 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		Burma is a puzzle.  He intimated by email six weeks ago (game time) that he smelled a Burma ambush.  Yet he isn't doing a thing there.  And I mean nothing.  He may be scrambling to bring stuff in, but I swear the only thing that makes sense is that he wants me to come forward so that he can come in behind.  But he does't have a prayer of doing that without the full KB and even then it would be far too late for him.  Burma is a puzzle.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 7:20:17 PM   
Canoerebel


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 7:37:32 PM   
obvert


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"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 7:40:48 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		Uh oh, I just noticed three of my four carriers have expended 250 ops points (apparently refueling somebody).  That leaves me at extreme range on hitting Carnavon's airfield with my SBDs - eight hexes while normal range is seven/extend eight.  What do you think:  better to hit at extreme range, or hold back a bit and plan for a strong hit at close range day after tomorrow?

This should be on the assumption that John will load up the airfield tomorrow with naval strike aircraft with good CAP.  I have 4EB targeting the field, which might disrupt CAP a bit, but I never count on that, though I have made sure each squadron has an aggressive leader.  :)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 7:43:37 PM   
Olorin


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert




+1

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 7:44:29 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		Uh oh, I just noticed three of my four carriers have expended 250 ops points (apparently refueling somebody).  That leaves me at extreme range on hitting Carnavon's airfield with my SBDs - eight hexes while normal range is seven/extend eight.  What do you think:  better to hit at extreme range, or hold back a bit and plan for a strong hit at close range day after tomorrow?

This should be on the assumption that John will load up the airfield tomorrow with naval strike aircraft with good CAP.  I have 4EB targeting the field, which might disrupt CAP a bit, but I never count on that, though I have made sure each squadron has an aggressive leader.  :)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 7:53:20 PM   
artuitus_slith

 

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Status: offline 		personally I only attack at extended range if absolutely critical. Given the extra op losses, fatigue and reduced payload it is rarely worth it. Exceptions would be if I was hitting a crippled carrier or other high value target, or if it was the only way to counter an enemy invasion fleet. This even applies to my 4E for the most part, never exceed normal range unless a target is particularly juicy.

Secondly, if he has spotted your forces is it possible he will have cap up? SBDs don't do well against zeros.

Then again I'm the new guy, and haven't even tried a PBEM yet so take it for what it is worth.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 8:01:05 PM   
ny59giants


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Status: offline 		I would set my CV aircraft with Primary as Naval Attack (10% Search) and Secondary AF with Carnarvon as the selected target. This way the LBA air will go in AM Phase to deal with his CAP and then in PM Phase the SBD/Avengers get go after the base. This way you are prepared for any surprise they you could encounter. This is SOP for me.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 8:09:42 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		Per GMoney's insight, I reconfigured the orders to fly naval mission only with fighters on heightened CAP.  The carriers will still take approximately the same position, midway between the combat TF and the amphibious TF, hopefully to confuse the enemy and prevent a concerted strike against anyone anywhere at any time.  Or something like that.  The SBDs can hit the airfield the day after tomorrow as long as something unpleasant doesn't change my mind or my mood. 

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 8:27:52 PM   
Cap Mandrake


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Status: offline 		Of course, if they are on naval attack, they may still attack low value naval targets at 7 hex range and run afoul of CAP at Carnarvon.

No way to avoid that really, short of chopping the range down, which is dangerous in the event that something nasty turns up. I suppose you could do fighter sweeps from Geraldton if you have something with legs. They might go in ahead of the carrier planes.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 9:23:03 PM   
Cribtop


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Status: offline 		I'd hold off. In addition to the factors already stated, the likelihood of SBDs at long range doing enough damage to matter makes a long range attack low reward/high risk, IMHO.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 9:54:38 PM   
JocMeister

 

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Status: offline 		For what its worth I would also wait the additional day. If you are going to do something you might just as well do it properly!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 9:55:23 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		Well, I sent the file back to John nearly two hours ago.  I waited.  :)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 9:57:16 PM   
JocMeister

 

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Status: offline 		Fingers crossed then!

Good luck!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 10:27:36 PM   
Houtje

 

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Status: offline 		Well? Any news yet, the world wonders.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 10:28:15 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		File should be here soon, but I'll have to watch it before I can post.  You might get the news from John's AAR first.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 10:53:47 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

File should be here soon, but I'll have to watch it before I can post.  You might get the news from John's AAR first.


Yep.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 11:24:40 PM   
Canoerebel


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Australia Today:  Oddly quiet on all accounts.  No enemy air missions at all.  No enemy combat ships present.  No Allied LBA bombing missions fly - not B-24s, B-17s, B-25s, Vindicators, nor reconnaissance.  My cruiser float planes apparently didn't fly recon.  Nothing happened!  Except one squadron of carrier SBDs sortied and sank five xAKL leaving Carnavon.  Not sure what to make of this, but...well...okay.

Australia Tomorrow:  I assume something's going to happen tomorrow.  A very complicated scenario for the Allies.  The Japanese can add to that...or not.  Here's the basic plan:

1.  Carriers take station between Exmouth and Carnavon, with most strike aircraft set to naval strike primary/airfield strike (Carnovon) secondary.  This hopefully will help suppress the field while also providing a measure of protection for the amphibious TF.

2.  Exmouth invasion TF could possibly reach the invasion hex tomorrow, which would suit me fine.  She'll be preceded by the Salt Lake City TF that will provide some measure of protection against a surface clash.

3.  Advance ground units should reach Carnavon tomorrow. 

4.  LBA orders all the same.  Whether these guys fly I have no idea.  It's like magic.  It's a mystery.

John may have orchestrated a stunning and thorough ambush.  He may have known this was coming.  He may have goaded me into this course of action.  But I don't think so.  I think I've caught him by surprise.  Here's his recent email:  "Time to jump into the slit trench I think! A whole bunch of Victory Points are coming down the line..."  That sounds boastful, but I think that's John trying to pull a bluff.  We'll find out tomorrow.  If, by chance, I've caught him by surprise, with most of his Netties in SoPac and CenPac, it will be pretty sweet.  If I get clobbered it will not be sweet.  I hate the "Banzaii!" messages from John.

Bay of Bengal:  Again, no enemy activity except unsuccessful sub shots.  Lots of TFs unloading at Akyab.  A minelayer deposits her load at Ramree.  Part of a USN port service will unload tonight at Ramree if she isn't molested.  The armored unit reaches the front line in the Burma jungle tomorrow.

China:  Looking good.  I'm still holding Kweilin and Chengte and thus far John hasn't organized a threat sufficient to indicate any withdrawal in the foreseeable future.

NoPac:  Waiting to see if something's coming for Akutan.

CenPac:  More molestation by KB aircraft.  John's almost surely set his sights on retaking the Gilberts.



< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/26/2013 11:25:04 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 11:42:27 PM   
Houtje

 

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Status: offline 		That's a lot of quiet before a possible storm. LBA not flying at all seems strange; do your A/C commanders have high aggression? In this thread it is suggested that having one leader with low aggr. may cause a whole mission to be cancelled. Please note that I am no expert at all, so I'm probably wrong. [:)

< Message edited by Houtje -- 3/26/2013 11:46:18 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/26/2013 11:43:20 PM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		Quick question.  USN CV fighters set to 50% CAP, 50% escort.  Should I assign any of these targets?  IE, should I give orders "target Carnavon" or will that mess things up?  I seldom if ever give CAP/escort fighters a target, so I have no idea if it would work.  If I don't get a quick answer, I won't.  But if it does work it might help create enough fighter presence to persuade my LBA to fly.

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