Canoerebel
Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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11/27/42 - D+17, Operation Des Wallace
The kettle is boiling - the lid's about to come off - quiet possible the penultimate moment of the game. Zoiks! 
Bottom Line: To win, Japan must win a decisive naval engagement and thus interdict the Allied LOC. The Allies, in contrast, need only avoid losing a decisive naval engagement. As I read it, the Allies therefore don't need to press matters and aren't forced to give battle on terms and grounds of Japan's choosing.
Malacca Straits: Violent activity here - both sides have mines and subs and lots of combat ships, with airfields in close proximity. John sends a big CA TF (four including Mogami) to bombard Langsa to little effect. On retiring, this TF encounters the CA Quincy TF. Neither side delivers decisive blows, but I think the Allies come out the better. Quincy has 18 SYS damage, but the entire TF will remain at Sabang since the decisive moment is here. But this was a promising encounter - if the Allies can hold their own in a major clash like this, Japan is in for a dark time. So John has at least four CAs and the Yamato TF in the Straits. He also landed a FT TF at Phuket (part of 48th Div) which failed in it's attack. Out in the Nicobars, another para assault against a second Allied base fails. SigInt that more enemy troops are inbound to Victoria Point. I'd like to interdict, but I think I need to keep all my combat ships close to Sabang for the next few turns.
Sumatra and the Seas: The Allies have arrived at Medan in force. Unless John has a surprise reinforcement planned, the base should fall tomorrow. I'm a bit surprised he hasn't moved yet in force on Nias or Sinabang. Out in the IO to the NW of Sabang, enemy subs picked off a few more xAK. The Allied carriers are out here and I think relatively remote. I don't see how John could push the KB far enough in one day to obtain battle. I'm pondering moving some of my carrier fighter air to Sabang, whose airfield went to 5.91. I don't think John's ships can penetrate the mass of Allied combat ships at Sabang. I think he may try, though, hoping that massed sweeps can overcome my own CAP so that his bombers can wreak havoc on the shipping there. So sending in additional fighters sounds like a good idea.
Malaya: 18th UK Div. has to basically stand on its own at Alor Star for now. If John wins the looming battle for the seas, Alor Star is neutered anyway. But if the Allies win, they should be able to strongly reinforce and supply Alor Star.
Foaming and Frothing? Judging Johnny OpSec's email comments, he's coming now. At a minimum, Japan is about to unleash some deviltry. I wish I was absolutely certain of winning the clash, of course, but at least I feel that the Allied position is configured about as strongly as it can be. The Allies certainly have a decent shot at winning.
Burma: 12th IJA Div. pushes back to Indian brigades from the road near Schwebo. The Allied forces have flooded to the lower end of the plains, but I'm not sure John is withdrawing. Well, he has certainly withdrawn most or all of three divisions, but that still leaves him with plenty to fight with.
Colombo: The yards are filled with attrition's flotsam. I have ten DDs in various stages of repair (all will be ready in less than 10 days) plus two cruisers: New Orleans (ready in 25 days) and Pensacola (60 days). Mauritius and Boise will be ready in 15 and 60 days, respectively. Several CAs including Frosbisher, Hawkins, Dorsetshire and Vincennes are inbound from Capetown.
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