Canoerebel
Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
|
Amidst the daily effort to summarize what's going on, here is some esoterica:
1. If you look at the number of ships sunk since D Minus 1, you might at first think the Allies had been bloodied. I've lost a bunch of ships, but thus far nothing that by itself or in combination with others would have the slightest impact on the Allied ability to wage war going forward. I've lost a handful of AO/TK, an AE, and AR, a DD or two, and a fair number of xAK and smaller stuff.
2. Other ships have suffered damage (CA New Orleans took a torp; CVE Long Island took a bomb), but the Allies haven't lost a really valuable ship yet. No AP, no AK, no APD, no CVEs (even though they've been at the very front since D Day), etc. This could change soon, but to this point it's been a very efficient operation at sea.
3. The air war has also gone well, though partly because John was delayed in getting his airforce set up and has since been only hitting at the margins (night Betty attacks vs. Sabang; raids against isolated xAK way out from the main lines; etc.) John only tested Sabang once and got a bloody nose. He'll be back, but in just 20 days the Allies took an airfield that was at 3.47 and totally wrecked and have built it up to 6.16 and growing fast.
4. On the ground things are messier. The Allies did a terrific job at bringing tons of support troops - three Air HQ, SWPac (and all it's nav support), tons of engineers....but all this at the expense of infantry. As a result, I'm stretched. I don't have enough "small infantry" to properly garrison everything that needs it. And my "big guys" - the divisions - are already pretty heavily disabled. I've got some problems on the ground, long term, but nothing that isn't manageable as long as John doesn't take control of the sea lanes.
5. John, too, probably has problems on the ground. I know he's fed in Imperial Guards and 4th Div. in ways that should rapidly deplete them. 2nd Div. may be about to land at Sibolga, which should tie it down for weeks or months. 10th Div. is near Medan and possibly moving overland towards Sibolga. But John still has a big army stuck out in Burma. He cannot mount a credible campaign for Sabang in the next two or three months if he doesn't win the war at sea.
6. John has done well, I think, in piecing together defenses and counterattacks that are taking some of the shine off my snazzy conquests. But I think he's going to go a bit conservative for awhile, feeling out defenses and seeing what he can pick up off the margins and by advancing methodically rather than leaping forward (on the ground and at sea). If that's the case, I think that's to his long-term detriment. I doubt a four or five month campaign is beneficial to him even if he ultimately wins. He might be better off at this date in flinging caution to the wind and throwing all his carriers and combat ships forward to give battle.
7. If the Allies win the sea battle or if the KB has to retire to replenish after a costly attack vs. LBA at Sabang, the Allied carriers may get an opportunity to really hammer the airfield at Port Blair, plus go hunting for the mass of shipping (including Mutsu) that's stuck in no-man's-land. That would be fun, but it doesn't happen until conditions are right.
8. Probably, once Medan falls, the Allies won't go to Tandjoen. Too much time has passed and John has too much power in close proximity. Rather than further fatiguing my troops, I'll probably stand down to build and protect Medan, Langsa and Sabang. If I win control of the sea, I can hold all of them and eventually resume the offensive. If John wins the sea war, or if the contest remains undecided into the medium term (four weeks and more out), the Allies proabably look at Sabang and Langsa as "no retreat" bastions. On the other hand, Medan and Sibolga will be used to buy maximum time to give the navy and airforce time needed to take over.
9. I'm weighing whether to send the other CVEs to this theater. I have three on map with another arriving shortly. The other possiblity is to use them to enhance offensive activity elsewhere. For that, I'm accumulating needed PP and shipping.
10. Sabang is the key. It's clear terrain, so very susceptible to nuclear BB bombardments. But John can't bombard unless he defeats my combat ships, and I don't think he can defeat my combat ships without defeating either or both the LBA and carriers. Sooner or later, he's got to try something bold - massed air strikes vs. the airfield and/or all-out commitment of combat ships. Those are going to be bloody affairs.
|
Printable Version
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 
New Messages
No New Messages
Hot Topic w/ New Messages
Hot Topic w/o New Messages
Locked w/ New Messages
Locked w/o New Messages
Post New Thread