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RE: Ponies and Rainbows for the Red Army

 
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RE: Ponies and Rainbows for the Red Army - 12/5/2013 3:25:18 PM   
Flaviusx


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Status: offline 		Toidi, Sapper has all the room he needs to take the sting off the blizzard. The Red Army isn't in brilliant shape here. Its replacement situation is going to be critical, and that ultimately is what's decisive.

All Sapper need do is fall back 150 miles or so, hold the line going into February, and then smash his way to the Volga when things clear -- not very far away if Sapper can hold a bridgehead across the Don at or near Voronezh. No deviousness required, whatever deviousness he needed he already produced to get to this place.

This is Sapper's game to lose and he is firmly in the driver's seat.

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RE: Ponies and Rainbows for the Red Army - 12/5/2013 6:03:04 PM   
M60A3TTS


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Status: offline 		Agreed. Sapper isn't losing this one. Too many manpower centers and arms factories lost. This will be over in '42.

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T17 - 12/5/2013 7:57:16 PM   
Tom Hunter


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Status: offline 		@ M60A3TTS how many arm do you think is needed to win? I often see this as "don't lose more than x" which requires one to know how many you start with, which is not listed in an easy to find place. I've got 279 and 43 in repair. Currently at 2100 manpower, I recaptured 15 this turn as I advanced in anticipation of mud on T18.

I started my counter attack in the air North of Moscow this turn. Extensive luck and a bit of recon located some recon bases, I hit them hard and destroyed 21 recon aircraft on the ground, and a total of 30 Luftwaffe planes over all to a loss of 75 Soviet. I like the ratio, and I like the idea that Saper222 is losing recon ability just as I make major changes in the composition of my fronts.

The other thing you can see on the map is Kalinin Front coming off the line. I need to get them further south and further back, then South to where the action will be in the winter. Leningrad front got wrecked when the Northern pocket died, its being rebuilt and will take over everything North of the reservoir, and some territory a little south of it. Northwest front is going South to take over from Kalinin Front and eventually pressure the Germans near Moscow. Strategy wise I started something close to the plan reccomended by Toidi a couple of turns ago, I'm posting maps again because the red army is starting to move.







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T17 Center - 12/5/2013 8:02:06 PM   
Tom Hunter


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Status: offline 		In the center I moved up in anticipation of the mud coming. I am hoping this gets me a few turns ahead on rebuilding the RR lines, this has already started near Leningrad in the North, but the center and southern lines are much more important. If Saper222 comes out of his forts to hit back in the snow I think that is good for me, some of his units might be in the open when the blizzard starts.

I am putting very weak units in the older lines to keep the forts up, we'll see how that works.




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T17 South - 12/5/2013 8:12:37 PM   
Tom Hunter


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Status: offline 		In the South I moved forward as well, bumping up against some Hungarians at Boguchar, and punching a Rumanian cav brigade out of Kerch. Most of this is to get rail lines repaired, and to stop Saper222 from resting his army. If I can move into Crimea a bit I will, I would like to open up more options for flank attacks on Saper222 during the Winter.

I had some good air battles in the South during Saper222s turn, and I am setting up for more of that.

I’ve put a lot of high moral I-16 and even I-15s up on the front to boost my fighter numbers, and I manually switched a few Mig-3 to other high end fighter to create a Mig-3 pool now that the factories are gone. I think I need to get my bombers more experience, so I am trying to get them adequate escort, and also find safe targets.

During T17 moved 10 vehicle from Stalingrad to Molotov, all the vehicle production is out of Stalingrad, I am going to move the Arm later. Have moved a lot of Arm to date, and I’m hoping by moving some vehicle that a portion of the Arm will have recovered before I move the 16 out. Soon I am going to have to switch the rail over to moving armies.








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RE: T17 South - 12/5/2013 8:34:07 PM   
Flaviusx


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Status: offline 		Tom, you have lost approximately 50 armament points, which is worrisome but not disastrous in of itself. It's the manpower issue that is going to bite. You'll be lucky to scrape by 100k/turn once the 1942 manpower multiplier kicks in.

That sounds like a lot. It isn't. Attrition alone can knock out 25-30k per turn, or more, depending on how much of the Red Army is in contact with the enemy. Then add to that combat losses, both on your turn and the Axis turn. It's very difficult to grow the Red Army on that budget outside of mud turns.

You get a fairly large number of reinforcement towards the end of 1941. But after that, it drops off to dribs and drabs and replacements will be the primary means by which you can increase your numbers.

I would guess that you're going to have somewhere in the neighborhood of 6 million come June of 1942. That leaves you with a very narrow margin of error. The lower Volga is within striking range, as is Gorky. The caucuses can be isolated and probably ignored. Once the Axis reaches the Volga, the rump Soviet Union that remains is going to be in a deep hole and facing either an immediate knock out on sudden death points, or an incredibly long climb back up with not enough time to reach Berlin.

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RE: T17 South - 12/5/2013 8:47:38 PM   
Michael T


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Status: offline 		I see some references to a patch 1.07.13

Is this a typo by the poster or is another patch on the way?

AFAIK 1.07.11 is the latest and nothing else is on the radar.

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RE: T17 South - 12/5/2013 8:54:18 PM   
Flaviusx


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Status: offline 		1.07.11 is the latest release. There is also a 1.07.12 in the works and nearly complete. Dominic is a machine. There is no 1.07.13 on the horizon as of yet.



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RE: T17 South - 12/5/2013 9:26:13 PM   
carlkay58

 

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Status: offline 		There are some preliminary discussions going on as to where 1.07.13 should go. You are probably seeing some spill over from those discussions. I think the AI Replacement thread has some of it.


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RE: T17 South - 12/5/2013 10:37:50 PM   
Michael T


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Status: offline 		Thanx.

When I resume playing WITE I hope it might be a final version, apart from bug fixes. If that is at all possible.



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RE: T17 South - 12/5/2013 11:13:12 PM   
Peltonx


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Michael T

Thanx.

When I resume playing WITE I hope it might be a final version, apart from bug fixes. If that is at all possible.




Good to see your around and Flaviusx has no idea what he is talking about. Not really but it is fun to poke him with a stick from time to time.

quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael

This and rifle squad upgrade "wasting" a lot of arm.

Seriously, I have many good ideas that could help but I want to implement them for .13, not .12.


So there is a "final patch" that will fix all the swapping bugs/armament sinks ect ect in the "works".

You working on #2 or happy with just one?


< Message edited by Pelton -- 12/6/2013 12:18:38 AM >

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RE: T17 South - 12/5/2013 11:44:46 PM   
Michael T


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Status: offline 		I don't mean to hijak this thread. But I am taking a long break from WITE to recharge. I will return, but when I do want to play a version that is very close to final.

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RE: T17 South - 12/6/2013 12:14:32 AM   
carlkay58

 

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Status: offline 		13 will probably be about as far to final as WitE 1 will get. There will always be WitE 2 though. :)

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RE: T17 South - 12/6/2013 1:42:25 AM   
M60A3TTS


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Status: offline 		Flavius, I think he's lost 91 arms if I understand. Tom says he has 279 (Soviets start with 370) and I think he said of his remaining 279 a further 43 of those are damaged.

Tom, the most I have ever lost is 59. If you lose 50-70 it's quite manageable. If you in fact lost 90 it's still manageable but you have to be careful what you build or you can run out causing shortages in areas you're better off avoiding.

Attached is a picture of a spreadsheet I've used in the past that will show exactly where the arms factories are. I have identified 200 at risk in 1941, not including the 4 at Minsk that are almost guaranteed to be locked down by the competent Axis player on turn 1. The left screen is what there is, the right screen is the way I track what I've evacuated. Generally you have to be done by week 13-14 and get all but 50 out. That's the goal anyways. Longer than that, you're likely going to lose more. Note that Moscow isn't included as I assume I'll hold it in 1941. If not, it's just more stuff you have to get out.



One other thing reference the air war. You are largely focused on air-to-air combat. Soviet doctrine says that AA and AAA units are an equally important part of controlling the air. The Axis will take flak losses, sometimes a good chunk. You should also be aware if you get that far, with the introduction of the 1942-D rifle division, those units lose their organic air defense elements. You then have to add AA regiments to the armies if you intend to keep an active AA component working against the Luftwaffe.



< Message edited by M60A3TTS -- 12/6/2013 2:47:27 AM >

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RE: T17 South - 12/6/2013 1:53:38 AM   
Flaviusx


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Status: offline 		M60, I had read that as 279 with a further non inclusive 43 damaged, which is how I arrived at 50ish lost.

If it is in fact as high as 90 that puts it well into the yellow zone. My rule of thumb is:

1. Losses up to 50 are manageable. There is some slack here.

2. Losses from 50 to 100 are dangerous and will considerably delay the transition to Red Army 2.0.

3. Losses from 100+: Katie bar the door.

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RE: T17 South - 12/6/2013 2:17:18 AM   
Tom Hunter


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Status: offline 		To be clear on the factories, I have 279 producing, and 43 in the damaged column. Looking at the table above I lost all the arm in Leningrad, and lost more than I would like at Tula and Stalino, but got many out, for example on T6 10 arm left Stalino, and on T9 10 arm left Tula, and I am missing the record for T7. <Moscow was empty of arm and vehicles when it fell. I am still pulling factories out but the only stuff left near the front line is in Stalingrad. I'm assuming factories in the repair column move into the active column over time, but I will say that the numbers sometimes bounce around in weird ways. Assuming all 43 factories repair and move into the 279 I will have 322 arm at some point, which is a loss of 48. I had a weird thing happen to my rail capacity, when I lost Moscow it went down to 65K, when I lost Tambov it went back up to 75k, and when I retook Tambov it went back down to 65k.

I appreciate the comments about AAA, I have been looking at that and starting to add units to my mix. I have focused on the airforce HQs because we are fighting a battle of the airfields at the moment. I'm working with the fighter groups partly to learn how to get control of the air, I see many posts saying "I don't understand how to win in the air." I don't like that kind of ignorance. I'm starting to formulate goals for my airforce. For example Saper222 flies recon over his near term objectives, and to forecast where I am going to hit him. If I find his recon bases and bomb them to pieces he starts to go blind. I'm not sure how many recon planes he has but I am sure he is down 20 from last turn.

Saper222 uses air supply in the summer turns, I want to bomb the airbases he uses to support his spearheads. At the rate I am going by Summer 42 I should be able to inflict significant damage and make it harder for him to succeed with this tactic.

I want to use air supply to support my winter offensives. You can bet Saper222 will try to bomb me, and I want to shoot down his bombers. Flak is going to be an important part of that, but so is quality air groups.

Flaviusx I would like to know what you put into your Red Army 2.0

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RE: T17 South - 12/6/2013 2:50:15 AM   
Flaviusx


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Status: offline 		Well, building Red Army 2.0 is a whole other thing and people's opinions vary. For example, Bozo uptopic urged you to skip tank corps entirely. I don't agree with that and believe the Red Army should build a small number of them in 1942, up to a dozen, and find ways to train them up and win easy fights. These units should avoid being anywhere near the front line at the end of the turn, however.

Build as many cavalry corps as is possible. 18 or more is fairly typical. These things will actually be stronger and some respects more mobile than tank corps or mech corps until well into 1943.

Do not ever build a tank brigade. You should indeed consider disbanding some. I typically keep no more than 36 such brigades which is enough to form a further dozen tank corps later on.

Don't bother with mech corps until 1943. You may consider building some motorized or mechanized brigades before then, but frankly, the truck situation is going to suck and may not allow for this.

Ruthlessly disband SUs that do not conform to your standard loadout for armies. For me, that's 2 arty regiments (preferably RVGK), 2 sappers, 1 flak unit per army. The rest...junk all of it. The only SU you should ever build is the sapper regiment, and only enough to populate your corps with attachments and the aforementioned army loadout. Some people like the 43 mortar brigades, but that can wait.

Build a small number of guards rifle corps. Don't go crazy with this in 1942, they have a weak TOE until October and you need unit density to absorb the Wehrmacht's attacks. The backbone of the red army during this period is the rifle division. They are also very expensive at 20 APs per corps, a cost that goes down to 10 in 1943 which is when you want to convert en masse to rifle corps.

Do build rifle brigades (I have changed my mind on this due to morale changes.) They have a morale bonus in 42. Try to keep 400 rifle division equivalents on the map at all times, counting each rifle brigade as a half division and each rifle corps as 3 divisions.

Towards the end of 1942 start building lots of artillery divisions. You will need these to crack the Axis defense. Indeed, the burden of attacking for a very long time is going to be carried by rifle corps and arty divisions. It's going to be grinding through one defensive line after the other, which is why some folks skip tank corps early on altogether. Maneuver warfare won't happen until 1944 against any kind of competent German defense, it's going to be mostly grinding from one trench line to the other.

Micromanage replacements. The salad days of 1941 will be gone (especially in this game) and you will have to be very careful about who gets what. 100k men a turn -- and it could be less than that in your case -- won't go far. You are going to have to accept that many units will be depleted or shells starting at the end of 1941.

Your truck situation will be bad until mid 1943. You have actually done reasonably well here, but it's going to be a problem.

< Message edited by Flaviusx -- 12/6/2013 3:54:16 AM >

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RE: T17 South - 12/6/2013 3:23:56 AM   
M60A3TTS


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

To be clear on the factories, I have 279 producing, and 43 in the damaged column. Looking at the table above I lost all the arm in Leningrad, and lost more than I would like at Tula and Stalino, but got many out, for example on T6 10 arm left Stalino, and on T9 10 arm left Tula, and I am missing the record for T7. <Moscow was empty of arm and vehicles when it fell. I am still pulling factories out but the only stuff left near the front line is in Stalingrad. I'm assuming factories in the repair column move into the active column over time, but I will say that the numbers sometimes bounce around in weird ways. Assuming all 43 factories repair and move into the 279 I will have 322 arm at some point, which is a loss of 48. I had a weird thing happen to my rail capacity, when I lost Moscow it went down to 65K, when I lost Tambov it went back up to 75k, and when I retook Tambov it went back down to 65k.



Sorry, but that's not the case. You lost 91 arms. Let me illustrate. The following is a screenshot of my game against Mehring on Turn 3. He took arms out at Minsk for 4, Mogilev for 3, and Gomel for 2. That's 9 captured leaving me 361. I evacuate 16 from Dnepropetrovsk. When they are repaired, the 16 aren't added to the 361. I actually have 345 fully producing and 16 in a damaged state of 50% or greater. You will get the arms multiplier in 1942 which is why it's important to understand the concept you've learned of moving factories in correct multiples to take advantage of the arms multiplier.



< Message edited by M60A3TTS -- 12/6/2013 4:30:29 AM >

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RE: Chaos at Leningrad - 12/6/2013 4:57:47 AM   
M60A3TTS


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Status: offline 		If you haven't done so, I'd suggest you consider disbanding needless air commands, specifically all 4 BAKs, thus putting all those DBADs under Long Range Air Command. That's 40k of manpower right there. Also you can dispense with the Volga Air Command and the 6th and 7th IAK PVO commands. Similarly, the Northern, Baltic and Black Sea Fleet Air Commands should be long gone.

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RE: T17 South - 12/6/2013 8:53:45 AM   
Peltonx


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

M60, I had read that as 279 with a further non inclusive 43 damaged, which is how I arrived at 50ish lost.

If it is in fact as high as 90 that puts it well into the yellow zone. My rule of thumb is:

1. Losses up to 50 are manageable. There is some slack here.

2. Losses from 50 to 100 are dangerous and will considerably delay the transition to Red Army 2.0.

3. Losses from 100+: Katie bar the door.


I agree with 1, but think 2 and 3 are lower based on past exp, new rule set and present production numbers

1. 50
2. 51 - 85
3. 85

I believe vs a good German defender its going to be hard for a minor win so anything that slows the building of Red 2.0 is going to have an effect on the out come.


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RE: T17 South - 12/6/2013 12:02:27 PM   
Tom Hunter


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Status: offline 		@M60 Thanks for posting this. If I am understanding correctly you have 361 factories, 16 of which are damaged. I'm showing 279 factories 43 of which are damaged. In addition there are a bunch which are damaged less than 50%, that are damaged but not showing as damaged, because of strange design decisions.

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RE: T17 South - 12/6/2013 1:38:00 PM   
M60A3TTS


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Status: offline 		Correct. The 50% rule says that any factories damaged over 50% produce nothing. So based on your numbers, you currently have 236 factories which may or may not be producing arms. The only ones for sure that are producing are those undamaged. 1-49% damage becomes a role of the die to determine if they do produce anything. The lower the number, the better the chance. So right now, you're not in great shape. At the start of the blizzard turns, you may find yourself without any arms in the pool. One common strategy here is to start conserving arms by reducing all artillery regiment TO&Es to 50%.

You should be aware that your damaged factories will recover 3% each week.

Here is the rule from the manual: Damaged factory production probability is Die (50) > factory damage. So having 1% damage will have 2% probability to have 0 production. 49% damage have 98% probability to be not produced this turn.

< Message edited by M60A3TTS -- 12/6/2013 2:46:29 PM >

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RE: T17 South - 12/6/2013 2:07:01 PM   
Flaviusx


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Status: offline 		I usually flatline on armaments sometime in October. It's pretty much impossible to avoid this in 1941, indeed it may happen even faster if you get the evacuation right. What a good evacuation does is save your bacon for later.

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T18 - 12/6/2013 9:29:45 PM   
Tom Hunter


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Status: offline 		Turn 18 For the first turn since T1 I did not use all my rail to pull factories out, instead I am moving armies. A big chunk of Kalinin front is now in the center, Leningrad front is part way to being rebuilt and is taking over the position opposite the Finns from NW front.

Northwest front in moving South, further south a stavka army is taking the spot between the germans and Western Front, allowing Western to rest, refit and gain moral.

You can see my over all deployments on the map. I am thinking I need another front in reserve soon if I really want to make hay during the blizzard. For those wondering, we are playing old blizzard.

I’m moving light formations up to stay in contact and drag Saper222s moral down. I’m moving some depleted stuff to the front because as I understand it, 38 men in a depleted armored brigade have the same moral effect as thousands of men in an infantry division. We’ll see how this works for me.

Strategically I am trying to surprise Saper222, so far he has not flown much recon to the rear of my fronts, so I don’t think he really knows where the combat power is. I think my best bet for catching him is in the South so that is where I am going to start. I am aware that he can just run, which is part of the reason I am pushing forward. I’m also seeing some RR repairs moving West, and every hex of repaired rail is a good thing for me.





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More T18 - 12/6/2013 9:52:56 PM   
Tom Hunter


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Status: offline 		In the air I hit back harder than any turn prior. Over all losses are 2.5 Soviet to 1 German in the air. Mostly I blew up HS129s, but I also got 15 Me109s, which is the first time I’ve shot down a significant number of German fighters in a turn.

In the South I actually achieved air parity on a number of bombing attacks, you can see a 100 fighter sweep hitting 46 Axis and shooting down 7 for a loss of two fighters and a few bombers. I think the airwar is turning from a massacre by the Luftwaffe into a series of punches and counter punches. The fighter force is doing ok, and continues to improve in moral and quality. The next step is to get the bomber quality and moral up.

The Red Army is up to 4.5 million men, 38500 guns, 2200 tanks, and 6850 planes. The Germans are growing a bit too, 3.4 million men, 33,400 guns, 2900 tanks and 2600 planes. My arm pools is drifting downwards, it 27000 now, down from 45k last turn. Manpower is up a bit as I recap towns, but the pools is also down. Trucks are 198k (86k) reflecting the effects of mud, but I gather still alright.





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RE: T18 - 12/6/2013 10:30:36 PM   
Toidi

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

I’m moving light formations up to stay in contact and drag Saper222s moral down. I’m moving some depleted stuff to the front because as I understand it, 38 men in a depleted armored brigade have the same moral effect as thousands of men in an infantry division. We’ll see how this works for me.



I don't think that presence of any unit lowers the morale (unless you are talking lowering the morale due to zone of control movement cost which may lead to lower supply which in turn may lead to lowering the morale). The presence of units does affect the attrition losses - and for the attrition I am not 100% certain whether the number of troops next to enemy unit matters or not.

Also, you need to be careful - very small/weak units can be easily attacked in mud. Also, remember that you will be attacked during the snow turns...

Your manpower and armaments situation is difficult, but I would not say totally hopeless. The game will be decided in '42. If you can survive '42 you are on your way to win (or at least a draw, but my bet is on win as surviving '42 will require a lot of skill from you - and probably some overconfidence from your opponent side).

You need to be very careful what you refit and what not, you do not want to waste armaments and men to refit subpar units...

T.

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RE: T18 - 12/7/2013 1:16:25 AM   
Michael T


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Status: offline 		To *only* lose 91 Arm while losing all the cities you have lost probably means you have lost lots of Heavy IND and lots of other A/C factories as well. In my considered opinion you are certainly heading for defeat and only a minor miracle can save the USSR. But getting a good thrashing is sometimes good for the soul

I am surprised by your light loses in troops though. You could have afforded to lose a few more men and save some ground/IND. This is easier said than done though....

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RE: T18 - 12/7/2013 6:55:46 AM   
Peltonx


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Status: offline 		Your armament situation is terminal and the same for manpower.

You will not recover from your own offensive losses during blizzard.



< Message edited by Pelton -- 12/7/2013 8:00:59 AM >

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T19 Mud slows things down - 12/7/2013 9:02:54 PM   
Tom Hunter


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Status: offline 		T19 in Saper222s turn each side lost about 10,000 men and small numbers of guns, I lost 2300 trucks moving supplies and units. In the air Saper222 lost 50 planes including 16 fighters and 22 recon, I lost 147 inlcuding 33 fighterbombers and 80 level bombers, mostly SB-2s.

During my turn I continued re-deploying my armies, most of the troops in the North are now in the center or south. Saper has pulled much of his air back, so my attacks were not as successful as I would like, I lost 108 planes and he lost 40, mostly HS129s and Slovakian fighter planes. He has large concentrations of Rumanian airbases near Rostov, I am going to start setting up an offensive against the Rumanian airforce.

I also did a lot bombing of ground units, based on Bozo’s post about training up the bomber force, I am hoping this will boost their experience.

The Red Army is up to 4.65 million, the Germans are steady, I’m also pushing toward 40,000 guns and have about 7000 planes. The Luftwaffe dropped below 2000 planes for the first time.

I gather that is possible but difficult to get Red Army units about 50 moral, I’ve managed that will a small number. I am trying to fill out my most experienced units with full TOE when possible. Alas no guards yet, next time around I am going to focus on that a bit more.

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RE: T19 Mud slows things down - 12/8/2013 2:12:31 AM   
Toidi

 

Posts: 200
Joined: 8/31/2011
Status: offline 		You will not get guards till well into blizzard. IMHO you have army which can bite Sapper during blizzard, unless he will retreat and retreat and retreat. If he does that, you will get back the terrain you lost, so you will have much space to fall back. If not, you will fight and win. Each city you capture will cause migration back, which means that on recapture you will not lose that much manpower. During your whole game you will need to be careful about your armaments, but you can still make it, just be careful about what you build (I guess you will not be very artillery heavy in your game, but you will be doing a lot of aircraft bombing before most attacks instead). Also, as your army will be relatively small (otherwise you will not have armaments for the unit TOE conversions) you may need less tracks than most - which means that you may be able to have more mobile mechanized or tank corps. Bear in mind that in '42 you should only use corps for counter-attacking and falling back behind front.

During blizzard your toe may fall a bit, but Sappers toe will fall even more. And if you can get 1 German soldier for 1 Soviet, it is always a good trade. What is important is to keep your good units supplied and as high toe as possible - if necessary use brigades and merge them with good units. With cavalry, you may even consider a hq buildup or two at right time. Also, build only brigades, no divisions - brigades will get to 50 morale by themselves, and than you can build divisions from 2 brigades. That is a known technique which counters low national morale of Soviet troops in '42.

Sapper air force seems to be doing badly, he is having serious issues with morale now. To counter that he is sending lots of planes to national reserve - that is why you see such small numbers of planes.

Good luck with your blizzard!

T.

(in reply to Tom Hunter)
Post #: 210
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