Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland (Full Version)

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Tom Hunter -> Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland (11/7/2013 10:46:57 PM)

First turn, he surrounds many Soviet troops, pretty much as usual. I reopen the southern pocket:
[image][/image]



I do not expect to get much if anything out, but I am hoping that it will take him a bit longer to reduce the pocket. I've set up skirmish lines at various places in the North and South, but don't plan to be super aggressive. All air units are on manual reinforcement. Fortification at Leningrad and Rostov has started, and a line that I expect to abandon has been formed in front of Kiev.

I tried to upload a screenshot of the South, but it does not appear to be working, any idea why?

Currently I'm thinking trade ground for time, and try to slow him down, especially with the units already in pockets.

[image]local://upfiles/14870/D1DCAE5018464B94BC8BC30B2CC203B5.jpg[/image]



loki100 -> RE: Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland (11/8/2013 5:58:52 AM)

if you are using the 'attachment' option, as opposed to an image hosting site, then you can only have one image per post.

There are a number of near free image hosting sites - I use image shack, photobucket is another popular one (though it has a bandwith limitation)



Tom Hunter -> RE: Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland (11/9/2013 4:07:28 PM)

Turn 2 in the North.

I set some slow down lines T1 which did not slow the Germans much. Sapper22 did manage to pocket a small number of troops near Minsk, but other than that everything you see is stuff that was cut off turn 1. I am moving it around to make it harder to kill or to slow his rail repair, anything to delay the German advance.
I’m taking a risk at Pskov where I placed a line near his armor. It has numerous back up positions designed to slow his rate of advance and allow me to build real lines near Leningrad. The spraypaint line is a series of connecting ZoCs that are also designed to slow him down.
If this works he will hit the Pskov and Smolensk lines T3, but not hard enough to pocket them, and then they will retreat T4. My goal at Smolesk is the same at Pskov, buy a little time to fortify. You can see the start of fort lines in various places, if I can get things fortified I believe I can slow him down even more.







I’m starting to put modern fighters into the air units at Leningrad, that is the first place I plan to contest his control of the air. T2 I moved factories out of Kiev and Mogilev, both armaments and heavy industry.
I would be glad for comments on the strategy, air moves and factory evac. I’m trying to build up a reserve of action points so I have done relatively little with the ones I have.
Sapper22 said he has a new strategy when he posted his opponents wanted ad, I am still not sure what it is. I do see two very large concentrations of troops one heading for Leningrad and the other for Moscow. This seems a pretty normal situation for T2 Germany, any thoughts on that?


[image]local://upfiles/14870/ADA276DDF46544EC902EFE1A3DCDB8A7.jpg[/image]



Tom Hunter -> RE: Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland (11/9/2013 5:00:33 PM)

In the South I failed to locate his armor in Hungary, and underestimated how fast he could move with the Northern part of his force. This lead me to put my rear area stop lines too far forward, and he surrounded more troops. This turn I was unable to break his line, which is going to cause me trouble as I it may be stronger next turn. I’m also concerned that he might have enough fuel to do another envelopment, but I feel its worth the risk to move troops up and possibly resupply the pocket in T3.

I moved Bryansk front and other troops North towards Tula and Moscow, further weakening the South. I am gambling that the North will be the critical front in 1941.

Over all I am happy with the North where any mistakes I made T2 were small, but concerned about the South.



[image]local://upfiles/14870/82C7EBDF0AD54064AC7B1C10F4FD9C5E.jpg[/image]



A game -> RE: Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland (11/9/2013 8:51:00 PM)

How did he manage to rail his panzers through Romania turn 1? I thought that was now blocked with one of the new patches, or maybe Im completely wrong?

The south looks like a disaster, I think the only option now is "trade space for time", any attempt to fight here will just mean more units gobbled up by the Axis, I would be screening the Dnepr simply to force him to make an expensive crossing and then run, run away.

You really need a LOT more troops in the north to try and hold up AGN for as long as possible, so again taking them from the south and sending them north is far better than just feeding them to the panzers. I feel like the troops on your Moscow line could be better used forward around velikie luki or Leningrad, but I like to play more forward if I can find good terrain, with enough sappers and construction brigades you can get forts up rather quickly in front of Moscow later on anyway.

Im no expert, Im sure others have better advice! But this looks like it could be a very short game... Good luck, I think you will need it! And I respect you taking on a "pro" like Sapper.



Tom Hunter -> RE: Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland (11/9/2013 10:21:35 PM)

It may be a short game, or not. There are no more troops for the North, this is T2, and the reinforcements have not really started flowing yet. That was my problem in the South as well, Sapper launched a very good T1 with multiple pockets. I broke them open and if you look at my pic from T1 I did place blocking units directly in the path Sapper took to make his second encirclement. But most of my units could not move, so I was only able to put a few in the way and it was not enough. It's not visible on the screenshots I posted, but every armor unit showing supply is showing red on fuel. I took a gamble on that and moved up to break the pocket in the south.

I'm not planning to fight forward, its much to early for that, but I would like to make the pockets eat up a lot of Sappers time, and to do that I have to break it open again. However if it does not break next turn I am just running, I think your advice to screen is fundamentally sound.

I have screenshots of the end of Sappers move at T1, if it would help the discussion I can post them.

I started wargaming at MIT when I was 12, the standard of play was pretty high, Sapper is not the only pro is this game but he definitely has an experience advantage as I have run one campaign vs the AI before taking him on. I figure we are simulating the actual Soviet learning curve, so its a bonus.

Thanks for commenting.



carlkay58 -> RE: Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland (11/9/2013 11:41:38 PM)

Yes, Sapper has a pretty nasty southern opening. In my game against him, he cut off and destroyed just about all of the Southwestern and Southern Fronts in the first two turns without any ability on my part to do anything about it.



A game -> RE: Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland (11/10/2013 12:04:09 AM)

Yes that is a brutal opening in the south, I know its been discussed ad nauseum but in WitE 2 they HAVE to fix it, its just skewing the balance of the game far to much.



Flaviusx -> RE: Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland (11/10/2013 12:54:51 AM)

Tom, I'm afraid you've been badly suckered here. Only a wily veteran should dare enter Sapper's cavern of horrors, and wily veterans know well enough to not go there at all.



Tom Hunter -> RE: Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland (11/10/2013 1:31:20 AM)

That's a great line Flaviusx, I'm sending it to Sapper.

You all may be right, I read the concerns about the Lvov pocket in AARs and other threads, and knew Sapper would do it when I agreed to the game. We'll see.



Flaviusx -> RE: Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland (11/10/2013 1:49:23 AM)

Well, if you can find a good solution for it and adjust to it, my hat is off to you. But as is well known by this point I don't think this sort of thing should be doable at all and flatly refuse to play against anybody willing to go there. Mileage may vary.

I had thought that recent adjustments made this impossible, but evidently not so and it's quite probable that you're going to lose virtually the whole of SW and S Fronts quickly. Sigh.



hfarrish -> RE: Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland (11/10/2013 2:27:59 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

Tom, I'm afraid you've been badly suckered here. Only a wily veteran should dare enter Sapper's cavern of horrors, and wily veterans know well enough to not go there at all.


I seriously don't even see why certain players see this as "fun." Wow, you have enough spare time to fiddle with the rulebook and practice over and over to generate ludicrous results. Count me out of that style of play...



janh -> RE: Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland (11/10/2013 7:53:44 AM)

I am going to watch this one... Good luck, Tom! From the maps it seems you will direly need it. Are you playing a new patch, with the readjusted blizzard rules?

Playstyles differ, but I am also not in the camp that like to press rules to the point of breaking the model, or the game. Hopefully WitE2 or even already WitW will feature some advancements that will eliminate such problems as the Lvov naturally. Within a turns time frame even defending units ought to have some chance (and an order setting like "reserve") to move and interpose, cause meeting engagements or deploy in detected axis of advance to cause meeting engagements, or commit flanking attacks against units passing by.

Also the survivability of pockets seems comparably rather low to what is reported of the German infantry being kept quite busy by and being wittled down in the process of reducing pockets. I'd have a suggestion for Morvael here, maybe others can tune in: could you either reduce the isolation penalties somewhat (so they remain principally based on their local supplies), or make them a 2 or 3 stage with increasing reductions, based on the number of turns isolated? Maybe supply consumption when inside a pocket should be lowered, so the attacker will face gradually fading resistance and more casualties much rather than the instantly pretty good odds now. I think the penalties don't need to be changed much, though, which would also not hurt AI behavior much. I think with the typical morale setting for an aggressive Axis AI, 110-119, the AI infantry will still swallow pockets quite well, even with some more resistance. What do others think?



STEF78 -> RE: Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland (11/10/2013 11:39:58 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Tom Hunter

I started wargaming at MIT when I was 12, the standard of play was pretty high, Sapper is not the only pro is this game but he definitely has an experience advantage as I have run one campaign vs the AI before taking him on. I figure we are simulating the actual Soviet learning curve, so its a bonus.

Thanks for commenting.

1 game versus AI isn't enough against Sapper222 event if you're a veteran wargamer.

He deeply studied the mechanics of the game and isn't afraid in exploring a-historical ways.

I also thought that this kind of opening had been prevented by the new patch.

Good luck but I'm not sure this game will be fun. I'm sure it won't be fair




Tom Hunter -> RE: Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland (11/10/2013 3:34:24 PM)

In the North I’m not relaxed, but I don’t feel I have made big mistakes ( more on mistakes when I post the map of the South.) The tip of the German spear advanced 3 hexes and killed relatively little in the process. I’m beginning to get my delaying troops into forts, which is pretty important. I even had sapper bounce on a couple of hasty attacks. He is sending a big mob straight into the middle for Moscow, and I am assembling a big mob to fight it. The troops with the split arrows are a question, they can go for Leningrad, or hold the North flank of the Moscow advance, or go for Velikie Luki.


[image]local://upfiles/14870/D883E88EFF1749BCB72DF9EDE3629440.jpg[/image]



Tom Hunter -> RE: Sapper 22 Invades his Homeland (11/10/2013 4:12:01 PM)

Game notes
T3 moved 1 armaments and one heavy industry from Krivoy Rog to Vologda. Same from Kiev to Yoshkar Ola, and NiKolaev to Chkalov
In the South I was badly mistaken about Sappers logistics, the small number of units I could see fuel reports on were showing red, and I took that as information about the over all condition of his forces. He caught a group in the center (1) and two in the South (2 and 3) I don’t have the moral to move through enemy hexes and break the encirclement, so I am starting to run. One and two were basically my fault, you can see Sapper smashed up my armies to make the pocket, I underestimated both his combat power and supply. 3 are troops that were running as fast as their legs could carry them, but it was not fast enough. I did make a decision to use my rail in the North, and to evac factories. This turn I have pulled factories as follows:
T3 moved 1 armaments and one heavy industry from Krivoy Rog to Vologda. Same from Kiev to Yoshkar Ola, and NiKolaev to Chkalov
I may move more, depending on how much rail I use.
I’m expecting Sapper to take the Dnepr bend in a turn or two, but so far every town has gotten at least one factory out before the place fell.
In the South I am going to put delaying troops in the major cities, and retreat for a while. Strategically its possible Sapper will go deep in the South and then turn north to Moscow, and I will be building lines with that in mind.
Finally I agreed to non-random weather, which I would not agree to again. Sapper moves fast and uses the low Soviet moral as part of his defense strategy. Low moral meaning I can’t move very far into his lines to cut them in the early game. Knowing when the first turn of mud will occur is a huge part o making this playing style successful, and since it’s a-historical I’m not going to use it again.
Since someone asked, we are using the old winter rules.
More coming at the end of my T3



[image]local://upfiles/14870/FDA871600FB441C881203634F059B2F9.jpg[/image]



Tom Hunter -> T3 in the South (11/11/2013 2:58:34 PM)

In the South I am running. I blew the pocket battles, but could make it much harder for Sapper next time, and I don’t have the troops to do much other than run. I’m going East and North for the most part, so that my troops can block an attempt to come at Moscow from the South. The possible line is most likely not possible, but I do think I can get forts built there and start doing useful delaying work in turn 6.
The Crimea is fortified but lightly garrisoned, I would like to get more troops in but I am not sure that is possible.

I am evacuating as much armament production as I can, thinking that I will need it, and in the longer run this could foil what I suspect is an important part of Sappers strategy. I’m trying out factory placement in the small towns on the map edge, I’m not sure if they will grow or not.
Question for the group, do I need to move heavy industry? There are some two year old posts that suggest the answer is no. I moved a bit of heavy I because I am concerned that this might have changed.
This is the evac list for T3 moved 1 armaments and one heavy industry from Krivoy Rog to Vologda. Same from Kiev to Yoshkar Ola, and NiKolaev to Chkalov, and 4 armaments and two heavy industry from Dnepropetrovosk to Engles 2 armaments from Poltava to Tuymaza. 1 Armament from Kremenchug to Elton, Leningrad T50 one point to Kirov, 1 armament from Kiev to Urlask, 1 armament from Kiev to Ozinki, 1 armament frok Krivoy Rog to Astrakhan,


[image]local://upfiles/14870/E8FB2134C9694A43B2E45F84C9D81149.jpg[/image]



Tom Hunter -> RE: T3 in the South (11/11/2013 3:33:36 PM)

In the North I’m at the point of performing a fighting withdrawal. I need Sapper to slow down, the 3 hex advance he got on T3 is the kind of advance I want. I’ve got a lot of 0 forts up, and some 1s and 2s, the 0s do not show on the map, but just about every unit in the slow down areas is in a fort.

My defense lines are thin in front of Moscow and Leningrad because I am building forts everywhere. In front of Leningrad I need to start holding soon, some time in August. We will see how that goes. I plan to withdraw to the no attack line and pull the troops south to fight Sapper in the fortified swamp.

In front of Moscow As Sapper reaches a line it will fall back into the second position, and roughly double in strength. With a bit of luck and skill that will put him on line 3 or 4 about the time the mud hits.
I’ve started organizing real armies infront of Moscow and Leningrad, though the corps HQs are still a problem. I’m not focused on optimizing single hexes, instead I am trying to build up over all quality and positions.
I’m reorganizing my airforce, and I have a question for the group. I’ve seen posts about the UV (PO-2) night bombers, saying people remove them, junk the factories, and so on. Is that because they work to well and are a-historical, or because they work poorly? I’m starting to put them on duty, and plan to use them to do as much damage as possible, but I would like to understand why some people are so against them.




[image]local://upfiles/14870/976BBAF51F2D4578A7F0FD32AD4DBFF7.jpg[/image]



Tom Hunter -> t3 losses (11/11/2013 3:40:35 PM)

Losses are bad, and going to get a lot worse as Sapper reduces the pocket in Poland and the Ukraine.



[image]local://upfiles/14870/3694A8FF3DB5481489DBCBE60804B741.jpg[/image]



Tom Hunter -> RE: t3 losses (11/11/2013 3:45:35 PM)

Armaments is at 358, and heavy industry at 224.



gingerbread -> RE: t3 losses (11/11/2013 5:08:33 PM)

Due to the way the '42+ ARM multiplier works, you should move ARM factories in batches of 4, 7 or 10 (best).

Also, due to damage to moved factories, it's best to move all at a site in one go. This is impossible for Stalino & Tula, so for these I think it's best to first move 9 (S) & 5 (T) in one turn and then the remaining 20 in one go for each.

This all means that you must plan ahead since there is only room in the rail cap for 1 major move per turn. So no more 2 pts form here and then 2 pts from there. Instead, move the current turns major per your plan and then see what you have left.

Did I mention that you need an evacuation plan?



Bozo_the_Clown -> RE: T3 in the South (11/11/2013 5:45:36 PM)

Looking at this map, I would probably take at least one Panzer Corps from AGN and push through that giant hole at Velikie Luki. He can flip the entire area on turn 4 and then make a giant push towards Moscow. Rail repair towards VL can be extremely fast if you focus on the north. He can still take Leningrad with one Panzer Corps and the infantry.

Regarding the U2-VS factories. I always keep them because most Axis players don't set their fighters on night mission or constantly move their air bases. You get free bombing runs and it really adds up. But against Sapper this might be pointless.

There is a great factory evac guide from Walloc in the forum. You should read this and follow his advice.



Tom Hunter -> RE: t3 losses (11/11/2013 5:51:38 PM)

gingerbread any experienced wargamer would know that the soviets need to evac factories, and even a bad gamer would have some sort of a plan. I moved the small factories this turn because they are under threat and because I think that part of Sappers strategy is to reduce Soviet production by capping a lot of the factories in the South. I'm currently using the guide posted in the war room. The point about Stalino and Tula is helpful, they are both turns from needing to move.

Part of my evacuation plan is to move the factories that Sapper is likely to capture. I'll post some thoughts on that next.



Tom Hunter -> RE: t3 losses (11/11/2013 6:17:50 PM)

When he advertised for the game Sapper22 said he had a strategy he wanted to try. This post is about that strategy, it comes out of gingerbreads question about evacuation planning, because part of my planning is in reaction to Sapper’s moves.
It’s looking more and more like Sapper plans to push the South and cut off the Caucausus, but Moscow is still a real possibility. He has two major concentrations of troops, plus a smaller group going for Leningrad.
The map is from the end of Sapper’s T3, to see the end of my T3 look at the posts above.
Looking at the arrows on the map:
1) He goes for Crimea, then the Caucasus, I think this is unlikely.
2) Is a better option, because he still cuts off the Caucasus, but he maintains strategic options much longer, since he can turn North at any time. This keeps the Soviets off balance until a turn after the fall of Kharkov.
3) If he pushes East to Kursk he can come at Moscow from the West and South. This would be very hard for me to stop.
4) Works with 3
5) Works a bit better with 3 I think, because he can also threaten Leningrad even more.

To counter these options the troops near Kiev are retreating more in the direction of Kursk than of Kharkov. I’m planning to pull Leningrad T4 and then a Southern city T5 but might reverse that based on Sappers T4.
Bozo you are right about the hole at Veliki Luki, I made a conscious decision to focus my resources in certain places and lightly screen others.


[image]local://upfiles/14870/61826A3D9AAC46948297367308DE7A9A.jpg[/image]



A game -> RE: t3 losses (11/11/2013 7:16:14 PM)

I think you have the right idea here Tom, defending forward after being crippled in the south and losing so many divs is suicide, best to just fall back, wait for more units and let the logistics do there work in slowing the german advance until you can create a proper defensive line.

It is a pity to give up the Velikie Luki area so easily though, its a great spot to annoy the germans...




M60A3TTS -> RE: t3 losses (11/11/2013 10:31:41 PM)

Tom, regarding factory evacuation, I am not sure what war room guide you refer to. I suggest that you read this to understand what gingerbread is getting at. http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2945409. The arms multiplier works in such away that you benefit in certain circumstances based on # of factories moved. If you do it wrong, and you're not doing it wrong- yet, near as I can tell, you can negate the multiplier bonus from '42 on.



Toidi -> RE: t3 losses (11/12/2013 5:08:58 AM)

In the south it is always Kharkov and Stalino. Taking those early is essential for the industry in those places (and it is hard to defend against them being taken early). Additionally, going south and taking Rostov towns has massive advantage of AGS splitting which improves command ability. Kursk has no real industry; There are also significant supply issues preventing a move into that area early. Supply in the south (especially around Stalino) is much better.

In the north it is Leningrad, Moscow & Tula. Tula is easy and if captured early it yields a lot of arm points. Moscow is difficult - there are significant issues to keep the troops supplied in that area until late August - early September. You need to keep Moscow garrisoned at all times to prevent a 50mp division raiding it. Moscow is doable in September once the rail is close, but generally enough Soviet troops need to be encircled (think 2.5 millions+) to take well defended Moscow. Leningrad will fall once it is only supplied via lake. The task is to make it fall as late as possible - and with as little losses (encircled troops) as possible. If Leningrad falls early, all valuable troops from the north are shifted to Moscow and Moscow is hard to defend.

Sapper is a good player, good luck...



Gabriel B. -> RE: t3 losses (11/12/2013 5:50:00 AM)

If panzer grup 4 is not by turn 5 around VOLOCHECK and panzer group 3 around Kalinin, you should consider yourself lucky.




Tom Hunter -> Sappers T4 South (11/12/2013 4:59:48 PM)

Sapper continues a hard push South. I’m very glad I moved factories out last turn, though somewhat surprised he did not take Kiev. Outside of the big pocket Soviet casualties were light in T4, especially in the South where Sapper and I share an enthusiasm for avoiding each other’s armies. His recon says a lot about where he is going. For the most part my plan is to have those places lightly screened when he gets there.

The big change is the Germans are starting to run up against some kind of limits, Sapper22 could not grab Kiev and stick with his plan to drive into the Dnieper bend. More on this in the North.

Any apparent troop concentrations on this map are an accident (see not an army) and are more likely to be HQs and airbases that are driving east as fast as they can. I do intend to defend the Crimea, and have started a line at Stalino.


[image]local://upfiles/14870/9C0B74BBAE444F5EB53E7743B262EB26.jpg[/image]



Tom Hunter -> Sapper's T4 North (11/12/2013 5:23:20 PM)

In the North Sapper advances 5 hexes towards Smolensk, which is slightly faster than I would like, but only surrounds one division there. When you see three battle marks in a row that is one pnz division chasing a soviet rifle division. Pretty much the same happens on the road from Pskov to Leningrad, he bounces a division from the first fort and chases it two or three hexes to the second fort. He does manage to isolate two division on the Leningrad front.

He does not go for Veliki Luki, which is what I expected, I left it because I had to, but I was kind of hoping that Sapper would get the urge to drive panzers into swamp. He either never had the urge or resisted it.
German T4 went about as I was hoping, no big encirlements and the retreat was orderly. The next big danger is the German infantry catching up to the panzers, I need stronger defense lines by then, and I have to slow his overall rate of advance, he is 22 hexes from Moscow now, so 5 a turn is too fast.

Looking at the two maps its possible Sapper will swing South to catch the troops near Kiev, but its more likely he will continue to push the center for a turn. Sapper is very accomplished operationally, but he is also good at positioning himself to keep his strategic options open.
To keep my defense effective I have to cover the approaches to Moscow, and prevent him from creating another major pocket by driving South with army group center.




[image]local://upfiles/14870/7F4D135C691C4003A682D0F0C5348436.jpg[/image]



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