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Russo-Ukraine war - 3/25/2014 5:05:28 PM   
lion_of_judah


Posts: 2113
Joined: 1/8/2007
Status: offline 		Here is what I have so far. The OOB's were taken from sources I have and from Wiki leaks which to my surprise had fairly decent OOB's. The European Union and NATO will not intervene unless Lithuania is attacked, and even then it is not a certainty that they will.
I have given the event after Lithuania is invaded a 65% chance that Europe will intervene. I'm thinking this maybe still too high, but not sure. The following are screenshots I have so far. First screenshot is

Russo-Ukraine war




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by lion_of_judah -- 3/25/2014 10:29:52 PM >
Post #: 1
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/25/2014 5:06:08 PM   
lion_of_judah


Posts: 2113
Joined: 1/8/2007
Status: offline 		Second Screenshot




Attachment (1)

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RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/25/2014 5:06:54 PM   
lion_of_judah


Posts: 2113
Joined: 1/8/2007
Status: offline 		third screenshot




Attachment (1)

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RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/25/2014 5:08:17 PM   
lion_of_judah


Posts: 2113
Joined: 1/8/2007
Status: offline 		I haven't been able to figure out who made the original map, but they did a very good job and I give them major cudo's for it. Once I can figure out who made the map I will give them credit for this. Very good map indeed.

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Post #: 4
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/25/2014 9:13:32 PM   
lion_of_judah


Posts: 2113
Joined: 1/8/2007
Status: offline 		This scenario is still a work in progress, now all that needs too be done is program all the events and the PO. The latter will take some time though, as I'm re-learning how to use this. At the beginning of the turn, there is a cease-fire which signifies the time right after Russian occupation solidifying Russian control over Crimea. The Russian side has the option to declare war at any time after turn 1,though this could change. Estonia is assumed too have been annexed with not a peep out of Europe,so by making the Lithuania event, this signifies Europe finally standing up to Putin.

After the Russians capture Zaporozhye in eastern Ukraine there is a 50-55% chance of European intervention, this goes up to 65% after Russia declares war on Lithuania. If there is no European intervention then the chances of a Ukrainian victory is zero, What I need to figure out is how Russia can still win without making an event option for Russia where they can just declare war on Europe, but as of now the victory points the Russian's will need in order to win are a lot.

Right now I think the EU/NATO/Ukraine have 720 points to Russia's 327, so if anyone can think of a better way please let me know. I had thought the force loss tolerance was set, but after playing a few turns, the loss tolerance is still at 0, is it suppose to be this way or should I do something else in order too use this. It has been a long time since I have played this game and so I'm just starting to acclimate back into it.

< Message edited by lion_of_judah -- 3/26/2014 4:24:54 AM >

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Post #: 5
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/25/2014 9:20:00 PM   
lion_of_judah


Posts: 2113
Joined: 1/8/2007
Status: offline 		Here is the link for the Ukrainian OOB

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Ground_Forces

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Post #: 6
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/25/2014 9:27:22 PM   
lion_of_judah


Posts: 2113
Joined: 1/8/2007
Status: offline 		Russian allies

Serbia
Hungry/Austria
Belarus
Kazakhstan

Ukrainian allies

European Union
Greece (made them not apart of the EU
Turkey ( same as greece)
Lithuania
Poland
Nordic Union ( Finland,Norway,Sweden)

< Message edited by lion_of_judah -- 3/25/2014 10:28:44 PM >

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Post #: 7
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/26/2014 12:34:30 AM   
sPzAbt653


Posts: 9511
Joined: 5/3/2007
From: east coast, usa
Status: offline
quote:

... after playing a few turns, the loss tolerance is still at 0 ...


Somebody knows better than I do, but I think it also has something to do with reinforcements.

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Post #: 8
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/26/2014 3:01:22 AM   
lion_of_judah


Posts: 2113
Joined: 1/8/2007
Status: offline 		Loss tolerance in game terms, what kind of effects does this have? Does one really need this or is it just for more realism, thanks

< Message edited by lion_of_judah -- 3/26/2014 4:17:01 AM >

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Post #: 9
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/26/2014 4:54:03 AM   
Jo van der Pluym


Posts: 834
Joined: 10/28/2000
From: Valkenburg Lb, Netherlands
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: lion_of_judah

Russian allies

Serbia
Hungry/Austria
Belarus
Kazakhstan

Ukrainian allies

European Union
Greece (made them not apart of the EU
Turkey ( same as greece)
Lithuania
Poland
Nordic Union ( Finland,Norway,Sweden)


Hungary and Poland are members of the European Union

_____________________________

Greetings from the Netherlands

Jo van der Pluym
CrazyDutch

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Post #: 10
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/26/2014 10:01:09 AM   
josant

 

Posts: 538
Joined: 3/14/2007
From: Spain
Status: offline 		Hungary and Poland are also NATO members

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Post #: 11
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/26/2014 11:27:10 AM   
Josh

 

Posts: 2576
Joined: 5/9/2000
From: Leeuwarden, Netherlands
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Jo van der Pluym


quote:

ORIGINAL: lion_of_judah

Russian allies

Serbia
Hungry/Austria
Belarus
Kazakhstan

Ukrainian allies

European Union
Greece (made them not apart of the EU
Turkey ( same as greece)
Lithuania
Poland
Nordic Union ( Finland,Norway,Sweden)


Hungary and Poland are members of the European Union


Was a bit surprised at that as well *no way* the Poles would fight alongside the Russians. Not much love between these two...

(in reply to Jo van der Pluym)
Post #: 12
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/26/2014 1:52:27 PM   
Curtis Lemay


Posts: 12969
Joined: 9/17/2004
From: Houston, TX
Status: offline 		It appears like your map omits Moldova and includes its territory as part of Ukraine. You also appear to have omitted the Russian part of East Prussia. Kaliningrad is Russian territory, for example. Kind of looks like you gave it to the Poles.

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Post #: 13
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/26/2014 2:13:17 PM   
Lobster


Posts: 5104
Joined: 8/8/2013
From: Third rock from the Sun.
Status: offline 		Hmmm...and I thought the Baltic countries were also a part of NATO. How did some of them become part of the New Russian Empire? I think you need to remake the map to mirror the political borders as they now exist. And I really don't see Serbia entering a war on Russia's side since they would be facing Rumania, Bulgaria, Greece, Croatia and anyone who has an axe to grind which is probably everyone in the region. They would last about a day.

It would basically be NATO and maybe NATO Action Plan members. If you are including Partnership in Peace members as Russian allies I would not do so. It's a mess since Eastern Europe has become balkanized. Fairly like pre WW1 except a little less hate.

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Post #: 14
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/26/2014 4:01:08 PM   
sPzAbt653


Posts: 9511
Joined: 5/3/2007
From: east coast, usa
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: lion_of_judah

Loss tolerance in game terms, what kind of effects does this have? Does one really need this or is it just for more realism, thanks


Its only for Victory Conditions as far as I know. If you want one side to pay more for casualties you raise that sides value, if casualites shouldn't matter in victory determination, you lower it for that side.

(in reply to lion_of_judah)
Post #: 15
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/26/2014 9:04:56 PM   
lion_of_judah


Posts: 2113
Joined: 1/8/2007
Status: offline 		the Poles are allied with NATO, not Russia. I combined Austria/Hungary together and made one nation. This is because Hungary receives a major portion of their gas/oil from Russia as many other European nations do and so they are not so much on the side of NATO or the EU. Austria I combined with Hungary because Austria doesn't matter very much. I believe if a war came, Hungary would not want a repeat of Russian troops occupying their country so either they would stay neutral or with the threat of their gas supplies cut off they may just turn on Europe. This though is just my opinion

I left off Moldova as it is assumed they have been absorbed by both Romania and Ukraine as Estonia has been absorbed by Russia and NATO/EU being weak as they are in real life, did nothing to prevent it. Lithuania is different as I created an event which signifies NATO/EU getting their spin back or rather a 65% chance they get their spine back ( which I don't think they would even then. I could put Estonia back in though as I have been chewing on whether or not to do so.

Serbia was added, as they would not just set out a major war in Europe, especially if Russia guaranteed their security and rebuilt their military in my opinion. They meaning Serbia wants revenge ( as in the real world). They would see their chance at this, with Europe being preoccupied with protecting Poland from Russia.

The United States has some units in Europe but not much. I did not add much either as the mood in this country does not and would not support another war in my opinion, and without the U.S. NATO would collapse

< Message edited by lion_of_judah -- 3/26/2014 10:37:21 PM >

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Post #: 16
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/26/2014 11:20:13 PM   
lion_of_judah


Posts: 2113
Joined: 1/8/2007
Status: offline 		I forgot to put Bulgaria in the Ukraine allies column. Switzerland is neutral, in case anyone is wondering.

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Post #: 17
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/26/2014 11:29:25 PM   
lion_of_judah


Posts: 2113
Joined: 1/8/2007
Status: offline 		I would agree to a point, but once Ukraine has been defeated which after about 12 turns the southern front for Ukraine collapses. So when Russian forces are on the Romanian border, I'm thinking the Romanians will be more worried about Russia than Serbia. But since I'm limited on how I can do things in this game I'm kind of stuck on having it like it is now, unless someone can give me a better way of doing it, which I will appreciate.

(in reply to Lobster)
Post #: 18
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/27/2014 12:34:26 AM   
lion_of_judah


Posts: 2113
Joined: 1/8/2007
Status: offline 		I've played 19 turns so far, and the Ukrainian lines in the south collapse around turn 12 and by turn 19 all objectives in Ukraine have been captured, with Kiev and Odessa surrounded. No EU/NATO intervention when Zaporozhyel in eastern Ukraine fell (50% chance) and by this time Russia is down to a marginal defeat. So it appears Lithuania will have too be attacked in order for a Russian victory

< Message edited by lion_of_judah -- 3/27/2014 3:38:03 AM >

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Post #: 19
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/27/2014 2:40:01 AM   
lion_of_judah


Posts: 2113
Joined: 1/8/2007
Status: offline 		I've decided to add Estonia as this will help in realism. Estonia doesn't have much of an army so that will be a cake walk, and as for the EU intervention I'm thinking less than Lithuania, probably around 45-50% chance.

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Post #: 20
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/27/2014 2:42:56 AM   
lion_of_judah


Posts: 2113
Joined: 1/8/2007
Status: offline 		Estonian OOB once mobilized. Question is, I'm thinking they will not have time to fully mobilize this force once Russia invades. From this article they have modernized their army and they have equipment from Finland and France. Their peacetime army maybe a road bump, but this will not allow time for full mobilization of forces without direct NATO intervention

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maav%C3%A4gi

< Message edited by lion_of_judah -- 3/27/2014 3:49:17 AM >

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RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/27/2014 3:46:16 PM   
Telumar


Posts: 2236
Joined: 1/3/2006
From: niflheim
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: lion_of_judah

No EU/NATO intervention [...] and by this time Russia is down to a marginal defeat. So it appears Lithuania will have too be attacked in order for a Russian victory


From a technical perspective, yes. But regarding realism/plausability, needlessly attacking a NATO memeber is out of question. Better rework the VPs/victory conditions.

_____________________________

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RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/27/2014 8:45:14 PM   
lion_of_judah


Posts: 2113
Joined: 1/8/2007
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Telumar


quote:

ORIGINAL: lion_of_judah

No EU/NATO intervention [...] and by this time Russia is down to a marginal defeat. So it appears Lithuania will have too be attacked in order for a Russian victory


From a technical perspective, yes. But regarding realism/plausability, needlessly attacking a NATO memeber is out of question. Better rework the VPs/victory conditions.



I'm all for reworking them, but I'm out of ideas on just how to do so, so if anyone has ideas I'm all ears

< Message edited by lion_of_judah -- 3/27/2014 10:06:14 PM >

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Post #: 23
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 3/30/2014 7:38:09 PM   
rfrizz


Posts: 88
Joined: 4/7/2011
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: lion_of_judah

I've decided to add Estonia as this will help in realism. Estonia doesn't have much of an army so that will be a cake walk, and as for the EU intervention I'm thinking less than Lithuania, probably around 45-50% chance.

I don't know if I have missed or misread anything in your posts, but...

Does your model of EU/NATO intervention if Russia attacks both Lithuania and Estonia treat the probability of intervention as more than the sums (intersections, really) of probabilities of attacks of either?

I have forgotten a lot of probability, so bear with me.

Ex: If Lithuania will result in a 65% chance, while Estonia will result in a 45% chance... Russia attacks Estonian, but EU/NATO does nothing. If Russia later attacks Lithuania, there will be more than a 65% chance of intervention.

In other words, they are not independent events.

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Post #: 24
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 4/1/2014 2:22:44 AM   
lion_of_judah


Posts: 2113
Joined: 1/8/2007
Status: offline 		how it is setup now is Estonia if attacked there is a 45% chance of NATO/EU intervention ( this is still too high in my book), if that happens then the Lithuania event is canceled. If not, then the next chance of European intervention will happen when Russia attacks Lithuania, then there is a 65% chance of intervention. If Europe still stays neutral, then Ukraine will eventually lose as well Estonia and Lithuania

< Message edited by lion_of_judah -- 4/1/2014 3:23:43 AM >

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Post #: 25
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 4/5/2014 11:01:56 PM   
Telumar


Posts: 2236
Joined: 1/3/2006
From: niflheim
Status: offline 		If you're still working on this the following might be of interest:

https://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/UKRANIANMILITARYDISPOSITIONS_RUSIBRIEFING.pdf

_____________________________

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Post #: 26
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 4/7/2014 9:34:11 PM   
lion_of_judah


Posts: 2113
Joined: 1/8/2007
Status: offline 		thank you. That is very helpful

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Post #: 27
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 4/8/2014 7:38:10 AM   
SMK-at-work

 

Posts: 3396
Joined: 8/28/2000
From: New Zealand
Status: offline 		There are a number of options you can presuppose - such as some weeks of tensions allowing partial or full mobilizations.

I can't see NATO not intervening if any of the Baltic States are invaded - they are members, NATO is looking at stationing troops in them, and if NATO did not intervene is would be a major crisis for the membership - especially the other Eastern European members...and probably a "green light" for Russia to do what it wanted.

The Baltic States would only be a political target fo Russia - scoring "bownie points' for "saving" the "Russian population" there and a bit of a sideline to hte seizure of Eastern Ukraine.......so a Russian player should have a choice whether to invade and have NATO involved or not. It would probably take NATO some time yto get troops to them - so perhaps the russian has to decide if he can seize them by coup-de-main before that happens.

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Post #: 28
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 10/7/2014 11:03:38 PM   
dundas61

 

Posts: 25
Joined: 2/20/2009
From: UK
Status: offline 		Hi lion_of_judah,

Is it at all possible to get a copy of what you've created so far for this scenario please?

Thanks.

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Post #: 29
RE: Russo-Ukraine war - 10/28/2014 4:01:24 AM   
lion_of_judah


Posts: 2113
Joined: 1/8/2007
Status: offline 		sure, will have to locate the file first.

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Post #: 30
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