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1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/25/2014 3:20:07 PM

leehunt27@bloomberg.net

Posts: 533
Joined: 9/6/2004
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Japanese Strategy 1944 Questions & Discussion (No B. Fagan please)

As I write this, game time is December, 1943 and British forces are converging on Rangoon. US troops just landed on the island of Yap SW of the Marianas. Koepang is in Australian hands south of Kendari.

Despite these ominous defeats around the Empire, quite frankly I am not sure if as the Japanese PBEM player I am winning the game, barely scraping by, or losing badly at this point. The victory points are slowly progressing in the Allied player�s favor (42,000 for the Japanese versus 36,000 for the Allies). Despite finally losing the KB in November 1943, the KB did have a great run and sunk quite a few US CV�s and BB�s in 1942 (see CV losses screenshot below). The US fleet is powerful, but not nearly as powerful as historically. And the British have paid a quite bloody price for 6 months of advances in jungle, attrition warfare against Japanese army units still very much intact and ready to contest every hex. The frontlines are mostly analogous to the historical late 1943 situation, with the notable exceptions of British troops at Rangoon. In Burma I am losing badly.

Over a year ago advice from people like you on the forums helped me salvage a nasty campaign at New Caledonia (http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3270286) and get the Japanese Empire and economy back on its feet. In addition to your advice I�ve also adopted much of the alternative strategy outlined in this book Chickenboy recommended: http://www.amazon.com/Japanese-Military-Strategy-Pacific-War/dp/074255340X
Regardless, the Empire faces a new peril and new questions:

1. How much Heavy Industry HI should the Japanese have saved up by 1944? 1945? I currently have 1.8 million HI �in the bank� as of December 1943. My HI burn rate a turn is 31k HI. 5.2 million total supplyy, 1.6 million in Tokyo and most of my troops have plenty.

2. What should aircraft production numbers be? I�m wondering if I�m underproducing (Japan chronically short of best fighters and bombers, surprise surprise). My current number is about 800/month, and its definitely being focused on fighters, dive bombers & torpedo bombers. I�ve never been the best about managing the economy, just trying to get enough fuel and oil back to the Home Islands and match engine and airframe requirements. So I�m not sure if should be ramping up production massively or stay conservative? I haven�t really needed more air planes until now, given that in 1944 you can lose 100 in a day.

3. What typically happens in China as the Burma Road is restored? Chinese forces are on the move near Changsha. Do fully supplied Chinese become an avalanche quickly or is late war China still a bit of a quagmire?

4. In regards to the Allied experience with amphibious assaults, will having less BB�s for the US fleet make that much of a larger difference? Can the lack of bombardment help be expected to slow down the USMC juggernaut? The Allies have yet to make a �tough� landing in this game, though they will eventually have to because after Yap there are really no more weak spots from Yap to Japan. Though he could land all his troops in China, avoiding amphibious nightmares, and join up with the British, but that seems unrealistic logistically and very time consuming. Filipino beaches are hard to cover, but once he�s there he�ll find the important hexes also a time consuming nightmare (I hope). That also won�t �win� the game.

5. What's the best plane to mass produce for Kamikazes? I've been producing extra D1Y1 Judy's and training hundreds of pilots at Low Nav. Was thinking of using leftover A6M2 zeroes as chaff escorts.

Thanks very much everyone!!!!!

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by leehunt27@bloomberg.net -- 8/25/2014 7:48:28 PM >

_____________________________

John 21:25

Post #: 1

RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/25/2014 3:38:06 PM

Lokasenna

Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

Japanese Strategy 1944 Questions & Discussion (No B. Fagan please)

As I write this, game time is December, 1943 and British forces are converging on Rangoon. US troops just landed on the island of Yap SW of the Marianas. Koepang is in Australian hands south of Kendari.

Despite these ominous defeats around the Empire, quite frankly I am not sure if as the Japanese PBEM player I am winning the game, barely scraping by, or losing badly at this point. The victory points are slowly progressing in the Allied player�s favor (42,000 for the Japanese versus 36,000 for the Allies). Despite finally losing the KB in November 1943, the KB did have a great run and sunk quite a few US CV�s and BB�s in 1942 (see CV losses screenshot below). The US fleet is powerful, but not nearly as powerful as historically. And the British have paid a quite bloody price for 6 months of advances in jungle, attrition warfare against Japanese army units still very much intact and ready to contest every hex. The frontlines are mostly analogous to the historical late 1943 situation, with the notable exceptions of British troops at Rangoon. In Burma I am losing badly.

Over a year ago advice from people like you on the forums helped me salvage a nasty campaign at New Caledonia (http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3270286) and get the Japanese Empire and economy back on its feet. In addition to your advice I�ve also adopted much of the alternative strategy outlined in this book Chickenboy recommended: http://www.amazon.com/Japanese-Military-Strategy-Pacific-War/dp/074255340X,
Regardless, the Empire faces a new peril and new questions:

1. How much Heavy Industry HI should the Japanese have saved up by 1944? 1945? I currently have 1.8 million HI �in the bank� as of December 1943. My HI burn rate a turn is 31k HI.

2. What should aircraft production numbers be? I�m wondering if I�m underproducing (Japan chronically short of best fighters and bombers, surprise surprise). My current number is about 800/month, and its definitely being focused on fighters, dive bombers & torpedo bombers. I�ve never been the best about managing the economy, just trying to get enough fuel and oil back to the Home Islands and match engine and airframe requirements. So I�m not sure if should be ramping up production massively or stay conservative? I haven�t really needed more air planes until now, given that in 1944 you can lose 100 in a day.

3. What typically happens in China as the Burma Road is restored? Chinese forces are on the move near Changsha. Do fully supplied Chinese become an avalanche quickly or is late war China still a bit of a quagmire?

4. In regards to the Allied experience with amphibious assaults, will having less BB�s for the US fleet make that much of a larger difference? Can the lack of bombardment help be expected to slow down the USMC juggernaut? The Allies have yet to make a �tough� landing in this game, though they will eventually have to because after Yap there are really no more weak spots from Yap to Japan. Though he could land all his troops in China, avoiding amphibious nightmares, and join up with the British, but that seems unrealistic logistically and very time consuming. Filipino beaches are hard to cover, but once he�s there he�ll find the important hexes also a time consuming nightmare (I hope). That also won�t �win� the game.

5. What's the best plane to mass produce for Kamikazes? I've been producing extra D1Y1 Judy's and training hundreds of pilots at Low Nav. Was thinking of using leftover A6M2 zeroes as chaff escorts.

Thanks very much everyone!!!!!

1) How much supply do you have? 1.8M HI to make replacement planes and devices is worthless if you don't also have the supply to take the replacements into your units, and then you have shooting to do...

2) I think this answer largely depends on the answers to the following:
What aircraft are you using? Are they sufficient, or do you need better planes?
Of the aircraft you're using, what are your losses like? Does your production cover your losses?

If production > losses, then no need to ramp it up. I will turn off production on various models when pools get large, and the definition of "large" varies depending on the model and the pace of operations.

3) I think that even with the Burma Road, he's going to have supply issues. It takes a lot of supply and a long time for the Chinese to fill out. I'd be surprised if he has empty pools for Chinese devices (350 squads/month...)

4) Losing the BBs will hurt him against places like Saipan, Babeldaob, etc. - places with large, built-in coastal defense fortresses. Without the big guns to help disrupt and soak the 6" and 9" shells from the CD guns, he'll have a rough time in the landing. Alternatively, he can bomb for days from the air and hope to disrupt the guns. Port strikes will do that, as well as ground strikes.

5) I think your kami thoughts are on. You'll need an IJAAF kami plane as well. I've heard Oscar-IV does this job pretty decently, with 2x250kg bombs. Won't be sinking any BBs with those, but anything smaller than that will have to worry...

(in reply to leehunt27@bloomberg.net)

Post #: 2

RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/25/2014 7:54:45 PM

leehunt27@bloomberg.net

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Joined: 9/6/2004
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hey Lokasenna, thanks for the response. I edited my original to include supply #'s, but they are: 5.2 million total supply. 1.6 million in Tokyo. The garrisons and armies are pretty well supplied, I've been aggressive about that. Rabaul is under siege right now but could survive till the end of the war (though it won't if my opponent sends in enough troops to finish it off).

I'm ramping up production selectively, but not too much. I've learned you can throw a wrench in the Japanese economic engine real quick, best to tweak things slowly!

That sounds like good news on China. I think I have enough troops to counter or at least slow down any move to the coast. And I honestly don't know how he's gonna crack a lot of the VP locations without a lot of time and casualties. We'll see...

_____________________________

John 21:25

(in reply to Lokasenna)

Post #: 3

RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/25/2014 8:02:57 PM

Dili

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Joined: 9/10/2004
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Preserve the supply routes from resources. He seems to have a double advance trough East Indias - he can turn left and take Java and go up and threat Mindanao and join with forces going trough New Guinea.

In the end you have to go land based and forget about naval battles except raids. Your carrier losses are really bad since 1:1 is a more than clear defeat for Japan. Less worse than historical but still very bad.

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RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/25/2014 10:58:18 PM

Lowpe

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How are the Marianas built up and defended? Pull out the long knives! You need to pull off a victory there or at the PI to buy some time.

How is your fuel and oil? Still shipping from upper DEI?

Are your supply stockpiles growing?

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 8/26/2014 12:03:00 AM >

(in reply to Dili)

Post #: 5

RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/26/2014 1:37:56 AM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
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Having not been to 1944 in a PBEM yet, I'm unqualified to give you first-hand advice, but at first glance, it looks like you're doing fine.

Agree with Lokasenna about the IJAAF kamikaze corps. They will have to shoulder the burden in terms of numbers of attackers and ablative armor moving forward. I would spare my A6M2 pilots as much as possible, as you will need all able bodies to provide for your IJNAF training corps and, eventually, kamikazes.

Per the book and your map, the Marianas are absolutely critical to hold. You cannot give the USN unfettered access from the South and East to Luzon. Truk is too expensive for most Allied players to take (as opposed to bypassing), so the Marianas are a necessary East-facing bulwark. The incursion to Yap and dissection of your defenses to the Southwest of the Marianas is a troublesome development-you certainly don't want to allow that to continue. Here will be your main struggle against the USN.

The DEI is necessary to keep as long as possible. Prevent the fall or interdiction of Java, Balikpapan and (most importantly) Palembang. You will only survive slightly longer than you hold DEI oil / fuel production. While a full-throated Allied offensive up through the underbelly of the DEI is feasible, it's also prone to bogging down in a time-consuming slog for them-if you make it so.

IMO, Burma is (and was) a secondary theatre. There are many, many hexes of forested and defensible terrain between Rangoon and Bangkok. This theatre will take time for the Allies to digest. Comparatively, it's a longer slog than the slash and grab that is possible in the Pacific approach.

Burnish defenses on Luzon, the Marianas, Java and some specific hotspots of the Southern DEI. Hopefully you're building up your next 'ring' thereafter? Formosa springs to mind, as do the Ryukus and Volcano islands. How's Hokkaido and Aleutians looking?

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Post #: 6

RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/26/2014 3:54:45 AM

PaxMondo

Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
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My thoughts, use them as you see fit. They echo what Loka and CB have already said.

quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

1. How much Heavy Industry HI should the Japanese have saved up by 1944? 1945? I currently have 1.8 million HI �in the bank� as of December 1943. My HI burn rate a turn is 31k HI. 5.2 million total supplyy, 1.6 million in Tokyo and most of my troops have plenty.

By end game, I like to be able to crank out about 1800 ac/month (900 1E fighters, 600 1E bombers, 300 2E ac) which is ~75.6K HI/month or 900K/yr. So just for AC, I'm looking at 1.8M HI for the last two years. Add in pilot exp, ARM, VEH ... I want about 4M HI when I lose the DEI oil supply in mid-44 in the bank. I know I can last the game with 4M HI in the bank. Loka & CB mention supply and that is crucial. My target is about double my HI in Japan ... so looking for 6-8M supply in IJ at mid-44. I'm going to burn a lot with AC factory conversion right about then as my R&D should be getting the late war AC into play in '44 and I will need to build 900 factories (900K supply) right there and figure the same in engine, so total 1.8M supply. Obviously, if I am ahead in any builds, I can back off my supply targets.

You look to be where I generally am for AC builds in 42/43. I do NOT over build in these years. The only mid-game aircraft that I find useful in the late game is George. That's me though. Some people love Tojo in '45, but for me they are just too slow and are VP's ready for harvest.

quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net
2. What should aircraft production numbers be? I�m wondering if I�m underproducing (Japan chronically short of best fighters and bombers, surprise surprise). My current number is about 800/month, and its definitely being focused on fighters, dive bombers & torpedo bombers. I�ve never been the best about managing the economy, just trying to get enough fuel and oil back to the Home Islands and match engine and airframe requirements. So I�m not sure if should be ramping up production massively or stay conservative? I haven�t really needed more air planes until now, given that in 1944 you can lose 100 in a day.

see above. With Kami raids you can lose many 100's in a day. Pick your IJA kami plane and build. Some like the Oscar, I like the Tsurugi. Roughly same speed as Oscar, but an 800kg bomb. Doesn't have range of Oscar, but I struggle to get kami's to launch at range. Pilots are low exp and ... well. Anyway, kami's for me are for invasion fleets and that means they are coming to me anyway. Either way, both use Ha-35 which you have tons of capacity of and both are 1E so you can build LOTS. At least 100/month, I build more.

quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net
3. What typically happens in China as the Burma Road is restored? Chinese forces are on the move near Changsha. Do fully supplied Chinese become an avalanche quickly or is late war China still a bit of a quagmire?

Never noticed much. I HATE Burma though. Its a death trap for good IJA LCU's ... just remember to retreat east, not south and you are ok. Go south and the allies will beat you to Hanoi and all those ID's will be gone when you need them.

quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net
4. In regards to the Allied experience with amphibious assaults, will having less BB�s for the US fleet make that much of a larger difference? Can the lack of bombardment help be expected to slow down the USMC juggernaut? The Allies have yet to make a �tough� landing in this game, though they will eventually have to because after Yap there are really no more weak spots from Yap to Japan. Though he could land all his troops in China, avoiding amphibious nightmares, and join up with the British, but that seems unrealistic logistically and very time consuming. Filipino beaches are hard to cover, but once he�s there he�ll find the important hexes also a time consuming nightmare (I hope). That also won�t �win� the game.

Fewer BB's can be offset by ground bombing ... It will likely slow his tempo a bit, but I wouldn't count on much more.

Remember that the IJ cannot defend any island in the game. Really. Its about re-taking after the allies take it or sinking the invasion fleet BEFORE they get to the beach. The firepower and armor that the allies can bring can't be matched at every location.

quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net
5. What's the best plane to mass produce for Kamikazes? I've been producing extra D1Y1 Judy's and training hundreds of pilots at Low Nav. Was thinking of using leftover A6M2 zeroes as chaff escorts.

See above.

quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net
Thanks very much everyone!!!!!

I want to stall the allies as best I can in the Marshalls, DEI, etc. But I don't ever beleive I can stop them there. I might of course. Some good rolls on my side, bad luck on his .... When we get to the PI, I ALWAYS beleive I can stop the allies. Can't always do it of course, but I always beleive I can.

Why? Because now I can get reaction forces in place and there are too many AF's connected by RR that I will not allow him to suppress. That means I will have kami's to oppose his landing AND I can get one of my armor DIV's into play against him.

Anyway, my late game goals ... more modest than most people. By mid '44 I want:
- have my HI and supply goals met.
- have my NF's in production (Randy/Myrt)
- getting close to my 3rd gen (last) AC models into production.
- Losing the DEI, just shipping last oil, all oil centers burned.
- Have established west china MLR at LangSon. I want to force him to have to do a naval landing to get HK ...
- have established my north china MLR Kweiyang/Patung/Ankang/TienShui
- have my SOV final MLR in place Anshan/Seishin
- PI, Hokkaido, and Formosa well fortified and AF's built up.
- made my decision about Singapore ... how much do I defend it?
- all units fully built and with appropriate leadership. I do a lot of leader juggling.

_____________________________

Pax

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Post #: 7

RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/26/2014 4:46:50 AM

Lokasenna

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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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That's a nice little "Quick and Dirty End-game Japan" list, Pax.

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Post #: 8

RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/26/2014 2:48:23 PM

leehunt27@bloomberg.net

Posts: 533
Joined: 9/6/2004
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Thanks, this is great advice gentlemen. I've got some work to do, but I'm inspired and optimistic (in a end of the game Japanese kind of way!). (Don't read this Brian!)

On retreating east from Burma, you mean east into China proper towards Lang Son, or down through the jungle back to Thailand/Vientam, and not down the coast to get bottled up in Malaya? Right now my next defense line is anchored on Moulmein to Chiang Mai and the two jungle river crossings there. His bombers have minimal effect in the jungle and I really only took a beating defending city hexes in the clear.

I can probably get to 3 million HI by the time I lose the DEI, not quite 4 million goal, but the HI already exists only to build aircraft and produce supply for me. I have 281k arnament and 7k vehicles "in the bank." 90% of ship production has long been halted. I am probably wasting a lot of HI training pilots- seems like half my air force is in training. But I try to get 50 exp and 70 skill pilots to the front and not waste time fighting in the air unless it helps me or defends a base.

The Marianas are built up to be a nightmare bulwark. We're talking Fort Level 9, tons of supply, combined arms with CD's, RF arty, regular arty, lots of AA, HQ's, ID's, the works. PI and Taiwan are also becoming beasts for the allies to take. To avoid serious losses and time consumption, he will have to go around the central Pacific, also a long time consuming way. Future Japanese reinforcements will likely go to Hokkaido, Taiwan & the "inner" inner circle.

But as mentioned, the Allies can take any island. So far my opponent has not landed more than 2 divisions at once, and only against lightly defended targets. He is running out of lightly defended targets and whats worth taking in VP's will be a long slog. To some extent his advance is faster in certain areas because I have reserved my strength for the inner circles, according to that book on alternative Japanese strategy. I could have done a better job in Burma, though the retreat there is orderly and capable of delaying him. I could have done a better job keeping the KB alive, but it did sink a lot of CV's and also many, many BB's. Losing Yap hurts, though from there he still has to face the onslaught of Marianas air bases, Badelbob and Davao air power. That air power sunk maybe 2-3 light carriers on taking Yap, a high price to pay for a limited incursion. If I can do that to a few more landings the Kamikazes will have an easier time later...

Defending the DEI seems difficult without sufficient naval and air power. The infantry can't stop landings everywhere, though I've thrown a few sacrificial regiments in his way and that has slowed things a bit. Kendari is still a viable thorn in his side. But once those SLOC's are threatened by allied bombers with escort, I know shipping oil and fuel out of the DEI will be done. So most players lose DEI by mid 1944 then?

Lastly, I think defending Singapore to the death with a large garrison might be worth it. Its a lot of points, far off the beaten track of the invading British land route, and thus a time consumer...

< Message edited by leehunt27@bloomberg.net -- 8/26/2014 3:49:35 PM >

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John 21:25

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Post #: 9

RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/26/2014 5:49:00 PM

Dili

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Not get bottled up in Malaya and Saigon.

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Post #: 10

RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/26/2014 6:15:58 PM

leehunt27@bloomberg.net

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cool... also, what do you think of Nick's as the army Kamikaze weapon of choice? Cost some PP to change the light dive bomber squadrons, but its armored, 250kg bombs, and could maybe make it past the Hellcats...

_____________________________

John 21:25

(in reply to Dili)

Post #: 11

RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/26/2014 7:41:44 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 24520
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From: San Antonio, TX
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quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

cool... also, what do you think of Nick's as the army Kamikaze weapon of choice? Cost some PP to change the light dive bomber squadrons, but its armored, 250kg bombs, and could maybe make it past the Hellcats...

As a 2E FB, it's probably an unnecessarily expensive option. Look at the Oscar III or IV for a fast plane that can carry 2x250kg bombs and is speedy enough to make it past Hellcats or other escort.

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Post #: 12

RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/26/2014 7:43:07 PM

Lokasenna

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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

cool... also, what do you think of Nick's as the army Kamikaze weapon of choice? Cost some PP to change the light dive bomber squadrons, but its armored, 250kg bombs, and could maybe make it past the Hellcats...

It costs twice as much HI to make, compared to the Oscar-IV.

(in reply to leehunt27@bloomberg.net)

Post #: 13

RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/27/2014 2:44:25 AM

PaxMondo

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quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

Thanks, this is great advice gentlemen. I've got some work to do, but I'm inspired and optimistic (in a end of the game Japanese kind of way!). (Don't read this Brian!)

On retreating east from Burma, you mean east into China proper towards Lang Son, or down through the jungle back to Thailand/Vientam, and not down the coast to get bottled up in Malaya? Right now my next defense line is anchored on Moulmein to Chiang Mai and the two jungle river crossings there. His bombers have minimal effect in the jungle and I really only took a beating defending city hexes in the clear.

Yes. There's been several recent AAR's that illustrate both doing this and just missing it. Essentially, the allies can beat you to Hanoi if you go south to Bangkok ... they'll cut across from Pisanoluke east to Udon Thani and then onto the coast. Once they do, you are toast. I haven't timed going to Viettianne, but that also is a danger ... anyway, you get the gist ... whatever you send south to Bangkok, you need to plan it is going into the Singers defense and you will NOT have those units available for the rest of the war.

_____________________________

Pax

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Post #: 14

RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/27/2014 2:52:29 AM

PaxMondo

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quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net
I can probably get to 3 million HI by the time I lose the DEI, not quite 4 million goal, but the HI already exists only to build aircraft and produce supply for me. I have 281k arnament and 7k vehicles "in the bank." 90% of ship production has long been halted. I am probably wasting a lot of HI training pilots- seems like half my air force is in training. But I try to get 50 exp and 70 skill pilots to the front and not waste time fighting in the air unless it helps me or defends a base.

You get a lot of armor units in 44/45. 7K VEH is no where near enough. AND you will use your armored divisions a LOT and will have a lot of replacements needed. I would get the VEH up to at least 50K.

281K ARM is ok ... again a LOT of units come in and your replacement rates will sky rocket. allied arty is brutal and your army gun losses will escalate beyond anything you have seen in 42/43. Remember, replacement is LC*ARM ... look at the LC on you 10cm guns ... how about those 24cm howitzers ... allied long toms cost me a lot of guns every battle.

I don't beleive you can ever have too many pilots. in 44/45 I plan on hopefully 1:2 losses, but it can be higher ... granted fighting over my bases pilot losses are lower, but still so many AC are NOT armored and you do have to counter attack over his forces. Anyway, pilot loss percentages will slip away from you and then the overall tempo will increase. The net effect is a large number of pilots and planes lost.

_____________________________

Pax

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Post #: 15

RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/27/2014 2:59:29 AM

PaxMondo

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quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

So most players lose DEI by mid 1944 then?

My target is to have Palembang shipping until 6/1/44. That's my benchmark. Anything sooner is a deficit, later is better.

I look at things this way: The IJ economy is fixed upon the amount oil it can obtain. The more it gets, the more fuel and supply it creates, which translates into more replacements and AC. My original plan is calculated on the amount of oil I can get if I have the DEI until 6/1/44 becuase that tells me exactly how much HI and supply I can have for the game. It is a calculable number. So, if I lose DEI 3/1/44, I know I need to tone down my AC factory expansion as I won't have the HI/supply to support my original plan. Conversely, if I still have it 9/1/44 I know I can add some additional AC to my plan. Maybe build some Karyu and get 6 - 10 groups with them. Something like that.

_____________________________

Pax

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Post #: 16

RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/27/2014 2:59:58 AM

PaxMondo

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

cool... also, what do you think of Nick's as the army Kamikaze weapon of choice? Cost some PP to change the light dive bomber squadrons, but its armored, 250kg bombs, and could maybe make it past the Hellcats...

It costs twice as much HI to make, compared to the Oscar-IV.

exactly ... and that is a lot of cost ...

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Post #: 17

RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/27/2014 3:00:09 AM

Lokasenna

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quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net
I can probably get to 3 million HI by the time I lose the DEI, not quite 4 million goal, but the HI already exists only to build aircraft and produce supply for me. I have 281k arnament and 7k vehicles "in the bank." 90% of ship production has long been halted. I am probably wasting a lot of HI training pilots- seems like half my air force is in training. But I try to get 50 exp and 70 skill pilots to the front and not waste time fighting in the air unless it helps me or defends a base.

You get a lot of armor units in 44/45. 7K VEH is no where near enough. AND you will use your armored divisions a LOT and will have a lot of replacements needed. I would get the VEH up to at least 50K.

281K ARM is ok ... again a LOT of units come in and your replacement rates will sky rocket. allied arty is brutal and your army gun losses will escalate beyond anything you have seen in 42/43. Remember, replacement is LC*ARM ... look at the LC on you 10cm guns ... how about those 24cm howitzers ... allied long toms cost me a lot of guns every battle.

I don't beleive you can ever have too many pilots. in 44/45 I plan on hopefully 1:2 losses, but it can be higher ... granted fighting over my bases pilot losses are lower, but still so many AC are NOT armored and you do have to counter attack over his forces. Anyway, pilot loss percentages will slip away from you and then the overall tempo will increase. The net effect is a large number of pilots and planes lost.

I've used 5400 VEH points in the last week in my Japan game. I'm only producing 200/day. That 5400 is just from an attack at Chungking - I must have lost a lot of Motorized Support, but damn. The armoured units weren't very messed up. I'm still above the trend line for future unit production needs, but I think yet more vehicle production is needed for me. I've kept my ARM production at 640/day and not turned any off. I may do so if I ever see 500K in the pool, but I may not see that until late '43, if then. I'm not worried about running out of HI with enough Oil/Fuel to stay at current production levels almost until the end of 1945, so we'll see what happens once it starts getting shut off.

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RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/27/2014 3:05:31 AM

PaxMondo

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quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

Lastly, I think defending Singapore to the death with a large garrison might be worth it. Its a lot of points, far off the beaten track of the invading British land route, and thus a time consumer...

You've got to commit a lot of fighter groups and ENG LCU's if you do this. It only works if you do NOT surrender air superiority over Singers. If the allies can wrest that from you, all of your supply and supply generation can be torched in a week with no hope of revival. Once that happen, Singers is just a large POW camp that no longer threatens the allies .... and all of those assets are now out of the game for you ...

look at what the GJ - Mr Kane AAR's, and then look how close it was on Kane's side. It worked for Kane, but talk about cutting it close ...

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RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/27/2014 4:37:36 PM

leehunt27@bloomberg.net

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Good points again...

ok gonna step up the arnaments and vehicles a bit. All I really need is ground troops and planes from now on. Good thing about losing the KB (if there is one) is that you don't consume any more fuel!!

Japanese army dive bombers are terrible until the late 1945 Tsurugu. Even though the Nick's are twice as expensive they seem better than building 60kg bomber Sonias... I am scratching my head on what to do with the Fighter-bomber component of the Japanese air force. Maybe ground them and train kamikaze low nav pilots till later?

As for DEI, I think it will be a close call, but holding till 6/44 seems possible. It kind of depends on my opponent's choice for an axis of advance. He's really been rotating his advance in each theater, probing, moving forward slowly and surely, blasting his away ahead one base at a time, then doing that again in another theater. His carrier support and B-24's switch their focus every few months. I think he really did lose enough BB's and CV's to make the historical US simultaneous advance difficult.

On a side note, a main tactic my Allied opponent uses is the combination of B-24's leveling an airfield with nighttime bombardment raids by surface TF's. These double punches can be tricky to stop (though Truk's CD defenses & minefields just damaged two of his BB's a bit last round). If the night time surface fleet shuts down the airfield, your CAP and bombers are useless temporarily. Then his B-24's can pour more bombs into the airfield. Its often hard to station torpedo bombers ahead of time at the base, because the night surface fleets can rush about 7 hexes away before being spotted. Then the next turn they will bombard and flee. If they are successful bombarding, your torpedo bombers will be grounded. If the B-24's are successful, same problem. I am trying to remedy this with George CAP's, mines, CD units and hopefully some luck with the bombers. One the positive side, though these attacks can be effective for the allies in temporarily clearing an area of air threats, its usually only a few days before the Japanese airbase is a threat again. Suppressing is not taking and holding.

Rabaul, Hollandia & Ponape are on the frontline now but still holding out with plenty of supply, with enough AV to present a possible air threat (if i fly bombers in for a day or two) that he must constantly suppress them. This will hopefully prevent him moving forward, at least safely.

< Message edited by leehunt27@bloomberg.net -- 8/27/2014 7:22:31 PM >

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RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/28/2014 2:55:09 AM

PaxMondo

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
I've used 5400 VEH points in the last week in my Japan game. I'm only producing 200/day. That 5400 is just from an attack at Chungking - I must have lost a lot of Motorized Support, but damn. The armoured units weren't very messed up. I'm still above the trend line for future unit production needs, but I think yet more vehicle production is needed for me. I've kept my ARM production at 640/day and not turned any off. I may do so if I ever see 500K in the pool, but I may not see that until late '43, if then. I'm not worried about running out of HI with enough Oil/Fuel to stay at current production levels almost until the end of 1945, so we'll see what happens once it starts getting shut off.

And that's against Chinese who have no armor ... wait until you have your armor against allied armor .... worse, wait until you see losses against SOV armor. Chilling is the only way to describe it. I wreck a division staving off each SOV attack (+200 device losses, +500 disorganized). I have to rotate units to hold the line, so that means I need to have to have at least 2 of my 3 ARM divs to use against the SOV to have a prayer of keeping them out of korean penninsula. When I've played that, I've lost +200 veh every 2nd or 3rd day for months ... that's at least 3000 VEH pts every few days and like you I'm only producing 200 - 240 pts/day. ... anyone here can do the math ... your VEH pool drops fast.

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RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/28/2014 3:31:12 AM

PaxMondo

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quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

Japanese army dive bombers are terrible until the late 1945 Tsurugu. Even though the Nick's are twice as expensive they seem better than building 60kg bomber Sonias... I am scratching my head on what to do with the Fighter-bomber component of the Japanese air force. Maybe ground them and train kamikaze low nav pilots till later?

Tsurugi are classed as level bombers, but kami attacks are (I believe) classed as low naval. Loka or someone else might confirm that.

I don't use DB's except against naval targets and then only against capital ships. DB losses are high, especially after the '43 Allied AA upgrades. Against all other naval targets I use massed LB at 8-12K altitudes to minimize losses.

I would only use DB's in ground attacks, or LB in low ground, in extraordinary circumstances because I know I would be writing off essentially the entire groups that were assigned. Allied AA is just too strong and that's before using JWE's upgrades (which I do use). If you use JWE's upgrades, forget it. Not only will you lose the group, but the groups family, children, grand-parents ...

My point here being, I don't miss IJA DB's as I have no need for them. If the IJA had a DUR=40 DB with ARMOR, 1E, 4x20mm CL guns, 800 kg bomb load and 8 - 10 range ... then I would really consider changing my strategy. I would also shoot the IJN procurement officer corps.

But that plane doesn't exist, so ....

< Message edited by PaxMondo -- 8/28/2014 4:32:35 AM >

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RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/28/2014 3:36:18 AM

PaxMondo

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quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

On a side note, a main tactic my Allied opponent uses is the combination of B-24's leveling an airfield with nighttime bombardment raids by surface TF's. These double punches can be tricky to stop (though Truk's CD defenses & minefields just damaged two of his BB's a bit last round). If the night time surface fleet shuts down the airfield, your CAP and bombers are useless temporarily. Then his B-24's can pour more bombs into the airfield. Its often hard to station torpedo bombers ahead of time at the base, because the night surface fleets can rush about 7 hexes away before being spotted. Then the next turn they will bombard and flee. If they are successful bombarding, your torpedo bombers will be grounded. If the B-24's are successful, same problem. I am trying to remedy this with George CAP's, mines, CD units and hopefully some luck with the bombers. One the positive side, though these attacks can be effective for the allies in temporarily clearing an area of air threats, its usually only a few days before the Japanese airbase is a threat again. Suppressing is not taking and holding.

Its a strong tactic, one I first saw promulgated by Nemo to counter allied 4E attacks. Your counters are pretty much the right things to do ...

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RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/28/2014 7:40:14 AM

Lokasenna

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Kami indeed uses LowNav, though I have no first-hand knowledge of that - just words of many mouths. And it makes sense, I suppose.

I think too many people focus on air production. It's not really about how many planes you make (the air war is at least as much about the pilots, despite my comments in another thread just now, as it is about airframes), but it's about:

How many guns and squads can you replace? (ARM pts)
How many planes can you pull into units? (Supply)
How many vehicles can you replace? (VEH pts)
How much can your units shoot back? (Supply)

Granted, all of that is rooted in HI...but it's not about an HI pool so much as it is about the end result of that HI production. VEH and ARM burn the HI. HI produces the supply, which is burned by necessary operations as well as expansion of factories (including a/c factories). It's why I'm not concerned about HI levels so much as I am about other things in my game.

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RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/29/2014 2:34:52 AM

leehunt27@bloomberg.net

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Kamikazes-- already trained a few hundred on Low Nav, about 50-60 skill. Don't want to overtrain those guys!

Early on I goofed with the Japanese economy and over produced Hitachi engines. At this point those engines seem useful mainly for Ida dive bombers. Since I already produced 600 engines, does that mean its almost "free" to produce Ida's? These are not great for Kamikazes but since I already have 600 engines lying around, what the heck?

My opponent just moved a large force of Chinese up into an awkward position- awkward for some of his mates on the flanks. This could be an opportunity to cut some off, but in a strategically offensive, tactically defensive kind of way. Quickly advance to the empty high ground without fighting, then wait for him to desparately throw wave after wave into my dug in guns.

And point taken on the substantial need for VEH and ARM points. I started reviewing the Russian defense. That will be tough-- hopefully something I won't have to worry about till later.

Now that Rangoon's lost, score is 42k IJ to 38k Allies. That's not great at the beginning of 1944 for sure, but I feel like the Empire is in such tremendously stronger shape than historically. And has also inflicted massively greater naval losses on the Allies. From what I hear a lot of games end with the Allies scoring tremendous points in the last year or two, which makes me wonder, was the historical result like a 5-1 victory? Does the game's Victory Point conditions imply Japan has to actually win, as opposed to just do better than historical? I always thought if I lost Okinawa in 1946 that would be a victory, etc.

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Post #: 25

RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/29/2014 2:44:03 AM

PaxMondo

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quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net
Early on I goofed with the Japanese economy and over produced Hitachi engines. At this point those engines seem useful mainly for Ida dive bombers. Since I already produced 600 engines, does that mean its almost "free" to produce Ida's? These are not great for Kamikazes but since I already have 600 engines lying around, what the heck?

Not free, but half price. 1E AC cost 18HI for the AC and 18HI for the engine.

Again, Ida is not a DB, it is an LB. It is really slow (216). It only carries 4x30kg bombload. The only real use for these is to saturate the CAP. To do that, you need to get 300- 500 of them into action, and then abother 300-500 capable kami's (Tsurugi/Judy/Oscar) With a max range of 6, you can do that in the right circumstances. You just need to realize that you are going to increase the EXP of about 200 allied fighter pilots by ~10%. That's quite a lot. Those pilots will come back to haunt you. So unless you are able to get several CV's with the tactic, I wouldn't do it.

So, would I build them? If I had extra HI, it is something I would consider. If I am on the low side of my HI target, no.

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Post #: 26

RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/29/2014 2:45:37 AM

PaxMondo

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quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

I always thought if I lost Okinawa in 1946 that would be a victory, etc.

I would consider that a win ... but that's me.

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RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/29/2014 4:25:39 AM

Alfred

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quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

I always thought if I lost Okinawa in 1946 that would be a victory, etc.

I would consider that a win ... but that's me.

PaxMondo,

Not just by you but also by the devs.

Both Bullwinkle58 and myself (he even much more strongly) regularly point out that the way the victory conditions are set, it is the Allied player who must achieve a decisive victory, all other outcomes represent Japanese success to a greater or lesser degree. Games which are still alive in 1946 are practically guaranteed to not end in an Allied decisive victory.

An Allied player who has not achieved a decisive victory by 1 September 1945 has failed and been outplayed by his Japanese opponent.

Alfred

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Post #: 28

RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/29/2014 11:51:25 AM

leehunt27@bloomberg.net

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ok thanks Pax Mondo, so the engines I overproduced are really a sunk cost, not worth doubling down on HI points to produce lousy Ida planes. Looks like those Japanese army pilots will be bombing Chinese infantry or training Low Nav for the late 1945 Tsurugus then!

That's encouraging on the Victory Conditions-- that a decisive victory is required by Sept 1st, 1945 for the Allies to "win." Since the VP's in my PBEM are almost 1:1 now as of early 1944, my main hope for a victory seems to be smashing some US invasion fleets and/or holding key locations.

Currently the Allied fleet cannot quite roam at will-- in fact last turn some IJ cruisers snuck up on a smaller CVL TF and sunk the American CVL in a night raid. The air force is still intact with a decent amount of torpedo bombers, and though I lost the KB it took 2 days for the damaged ships to sink, so I managed to keep 75% of the Naval Air squadrons. That's been a great help- a little land based only KB strike force.

In a week or so I expect my opponent's strong US CV fleet to return from replenishment after the CV's supported the invasion of Yap in December 1943. That's given me enough time to replace my own lost torpedo bombers and fighters, and hopefully I can whittle own the CV fleet a bit more in the next punishing round. It will be fascinating to see where he chooses to land next with Yap in possession. A daring move up to Okinawa or PI? The grind forward in the DEI? An all out invasion of the Marianas? I can see to some extent the Allied player's frustration-- he knows the Japanese fleet is mostly destroyed, but the air force is still a threat, mines & CD's and island garrisons are strong. Landing in China & Burma is too far and time prohibitive, so at some point the next battle will have to be against fortified positions. Basically it seems like the Japanese player wins by playing a massive misery card on the Allies!

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RE: 1944 Japanese Strategy Questions (No B. Fagan please) - 8/29/2014 12:29:44 PM

Lowpe

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You would be well advised to read Obvert's AAR vs Jocke, and then Captain Cruft's AAR for end war ideas I think.

Obvert was in a stronger position than you in Oct 44, heck he had KB strikes in 45, all his BBs to the very last day, and game over in mid 45.

The Allies bring such overwhelming strength, and they bring it relentlessly, I am not sure anything can prepare you for it.

This has been an excellent thread, many thanks everyone.

PS: I don't mean to be pessimistic, but I simply can't help myself.

It sounds like you have built the Marianas into a real bear, and if you can stop the Allied advance at the PI, you have a real shot at winning!

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 8/29/2014 1:38:02 PM >

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