obvert
Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011 From: PDX (and now) London, UK Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Lowpe quote:
ORIGINAL: obvert Jab, jab jab ... right hook. Thanks...the problem I find myself having is exceptionally limited intelligence in what the Allies plans are. Is that 10 ship BB group contain troop transports or is it a very heavy shore bombardment task force for Rangoon or both? I have no clue as to what or how large it is. I know there are BB, CA, DD if I assume he has combined his two task forces. So I guess I have to assume the worst and it is a huge task force looking to land at Tavoy in 3-4 days time. Which means I pretty much have to press the panic button all across Burma which I have done. But if it is Tavoy, and he relies upon LR CAP I have a chance yet to stop him with air and naval assets. I still have 400 (100 fresh) fighters in the theater and probably 400 bombers (300 are fresh). Bangkok, Uttardit and Pisanuloke as big bases to base attacks against an invasion fleet which from what I can tell would only have long range CAP to contend with as there are no carriers spotted anywhere. I guess I will need to send some ships in just to figure out what is there...and plan for the absolute worst. I expect the big battleship task force to head south 6-9 hexes. I just can't see it as an invasion for Ramree, so that leaves Rangoon and Moulmein as being likely targets for the following day. Moulmein will be overflowing with troops in two days, and has 500 AV with good forts there now so I don't think it is the point of attack. He could land troops at Rangoon and bombard heavily with the BBs seeking to break the line there and benefit from in hex CAP. So I guess 2 days I will know if it is either Ramree, Rangoon or Moulmein. Three to four days for Tavoy and more for points further south which seems unlikely. Strategically, if you don't know what he's doing, try to present yourself with several possibilities and then begin to align them from most to least probable. I've gotten caught too many times assuming I know what my opponent is up to after going with my first instinct and then getting smacked with something completely different. What else could he be doing? Do you have to act on what he's doing now or can you wait and see what happens? What that you can do now will help you to be able to react more effectively if he does move in? How can you make him perceive that you have defenses in place where you do not? Remember the Allied recon is slightly better at each point than yours, but he has fewer recon planes and can't see everything either. Look at what has DL on it turn after turn, or what he was looking at consistently for a while and has stopped looking at now. What can you look at that will freak him out and make him think you've got something up your sleeve? The psychology of the game ramps up the farther you get into it. Play with that in mind and learn to use it to your benefit. If you want examples search anything by Nemo, but also Canoerebel, Cribtop, rader, PzB, and GreyJoy. Actually koniu is ding this really well in his current game. There are many others but those are the first that come to mind who I felt used this kind thinking in their game. Actually, also Jockemeister against me, () having now read some of his AAR, mused about these things a lot. On top of all that, turn on everything to search and light up the whole gulf of India for a few days to really see what's happening. You've got the LR tools. Even take a quick look at deep ports like Colombo and Madras to see if something is staging there.
< Message edited by obvert -- 10/5/2014 9:59:11 AM >
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"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
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