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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/7/2015 7:07:41 PM

Lowpe

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How important are the Marianas?

I am at the crux point on deciding how heavily I build up the Marianas. Forts are 5ish, runways are built to normal max...should I really try to turn Guam, Saipan, and Tinian into really strong festungs? Max forts, max runways, more than 1 division plus each...plus all the support that would take in supplies and units? How would that deplete defenses at Luzon? Kuriles?

My thinking currently is yes.

I worry about an early attack here while the defenses are still pretty far forward. Perhaps this is unrealistic as the supply line would simply be too great for the Allies; but it has me concerned. The KB cannot win a stand up fight with the Allies, perhaps it can within range of land based air that depletes the American CVs first. But I don't really want to get into a trade of CVs; I want the CVs to be a fleet in being for a long time.

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/7/2015 7:28:47 PM

Lowpe

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Have there been AARed games that went into 44+ where the Allies didn't go for the Marianas?

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/8/2015 2:49:48 AM

mind_messing

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quote:

How important are the Marianas?

Pretty important. Without the Marianas, the Allies cannot pose a serious threat to the Bonins or Luzon. They can push around the Marianas via New Guinea, but that's a long, narrow and difficult front to advance along.

quote:

I am at the crux point on deciding how heavily I build up the Marianas. Forts are 5ish, runways are built to normal max...should I really try to turn Guam, Saipan, and Tinian into really strong festungs? Max forts, max runways, more than 1 division plus each...plus all the support that would take in supplies and units? How would that deplete defenses at Luzon? Kuriles?

First thing you should do is open the LCU reinforcement screen and filter it to IJA infantry units.

They start to come in a slow drip in early '44 and ramp up as the year progresses. Once you're into '45 you'll have divisions all over the place.

The restricted units you can fly out to the Bonin's and Kuriles. The unrestricted units you send to the Marianas. Once the Marianas has a heavy garrison, you can send the new arrivals to Luzon.

Most of the arriving units are pretty poor, and they get don't get much better as the war progresses, so see if you can't use PP's to get some good stuff out of China/Manchuria/Korea and to the Marianas.

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/8/2015 9:52:40 AM

JocMeister

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Marianas is one of the most important places on the map. Its within B-29 range of the HI...

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/8/2015 12:50:45 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Marianas is one of the most important places on the map. Its within B-29 range of the HI...

I don't know if you read it, but Captain Cruft's AAR the Marianas are not part of the Hive....which very loosely based is a 20 hex perimeter around the Home Islands. Which to me is an interesting, and non-conventional strategy.

I worry that dumping probably a million supply, tons of troops and efforts into the Marianas still won't be enough to prevent the Yanks from getting B29s in range by mid 44. Not to mention the fleet will probably go down defending that huge investment too.

I understand the destructiveness of B29s operating from there from my Downfall game against M-M. But I also understand the terrible damage that jugs and mustangs can do once they get within extended range of the HI which really opens up daytime bombing. If you shoot the farm on the Marianas, it makes later defenses so much harder. Plus, you are defending without the benefit of kamikazes...

Just thinking out loud here...

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/8/2015 2:44:02 PM

mind_messing

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Marianas is one of the most important places on the map. Its within B-29 range of the HI...

I don't know if you read it, but Captain Cruft's AAR the Marianas are not part of the Hive....which very loosely based is a 20 hex perimeter around the Home Islands. Which to me is an interesting, and non-conventional strategy.

I worry that dumping probably a million supply, tons of troops and efforts into the Marianas still won't be enough to prevent the Yanks from getting B29s in range by mid 44. Not to mention the fleet will probably go down defending that huge investment too.

I understand the destructiveness of B29s operating from there from my Downfall game against M-M. But I also understand the terrible damage that jugs and mustangs can do once they get within extended range of the HI which really opens up daytime bombing. If you shoot the farm on the Marianas, it makes later defenses so much harder. Plus, you are defending without the benefit of kamikazes...

Just thinking out loud here...

To paraphrase Grant, stop worry about what the Allies are going to do to you and start thinking about what you'll do to them.

If you're having doubts over the Marianas, think on this:

- The only Allied land-based air support will be 4E's flying unescorted at pretty long ranges and in numbers limited by poor airbase potentials.
- You can stack the Marianas with enough land-based aircraft to give the Allied carriers a hard time trying to suppress the islands. I, for one, really want to see what happens when the USMC crashes ashore onto a island that hasn't been suppressed prior to the invasion.
- What collection of bases are as good as the Marianas that you'd rather fight over? Okinawa, the Bonin's ect all have small airbases.
- If you want to commit your fleet assets to the fight, you've Manila about five days sail away, and the Home Islands about a week away. The Allies have no repair yards till Pearl or Sydney.

quote:

If you shoot the farm on the Marianas, it makes later defenses so much harder.

Where would you rather defend?

As I've said, you can't ram anywhere near as many aircraft onto the Bonin's and if the Allies get on Luzon, they can work up towards Formosa and Okinawa with just land-based aircraft.

The Marianas are a unique oppertunity to fight the Allied CV force without Allied LBA in support.

I think that if you don't shoot the farm on the Marianas, later defences will be so much harder as the Allies are bombing your production into ashes turn after turn.

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/8/2015 4:02:20 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Where would you rather defend?

As I've said, you can't ram anywhere near as many aircraft onto the Bonin's and if the Allies get on Luzon, they can work up towards Formosa and Okinawa with just land-based aircraft.

The Marianas are a unique oppertunity to fight the Allied CV force without Allied LBA in support.

I think that if you don't shoot the farm on the Marianas, later defences will be so much harder as the Allies are bombing your production into ashes turn after turn.

All good points. I would rather be fighting in Oz and the Gilberts in 45, like Topeverest's game, but oh well...

I was curious if you could build up the Marianas so much the Allies go another route...something like what is happening in Wargamr's AAR up thru SRA into China and Luzon. I think I would rather fight there...I especially like Luzon, with railroads, multiple airbases, some safe from shore bombardment, railroads...in fact there are several size 8 or soon to be 8's runways on Luzon now.

I don't think you will see a contested invasion against an atoll without heavy disruption among the defenders. There is a possibility you will see that kind of fight against a larger Island? Don't know. Didn't Loka invade Wake relatively early on against you?

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/8/2015 4:48:22 PM

JocMeister

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Marianas is one of the most important places on the map. Its within B-29 range of the HI...

I don't know if you read it, but Captain Cruft's AAR the Marianas are not part of the Hive....which very loosely based is a 20 hex perimeter around the Home Islands. Which to me is an interesting, and non-conventional strategy.

I worry that dumping probably a million supply, tons of troops and efforts into the Marianas still won't be enough to prevent the Yanks from getting B29s in range by mid 44. Not to mention the fleet will probably go down defending that huge investment too.

I understand the destructiveness of B29s operating from there from my Downfall game against M-M. But I also understand the terrible damage that jugs and mustangs can do once they get within extended range of the HI which really opens up daytime bombing. If you shoot the farm on the Marianas, it makes later defenses so much harder. Plus, you are defending without the benefit of kamikazes...

Just thinking out loud here...

Well, if you are certain the Allies will get within B29 range from somewhere else throwing assets into Marianas may still be a very good idea. Remember that the Allies have enough forces to prep for multiple big operations in late 44. And once the Marianas fall its just one jump away from Luzon. You don�t want the Allies on Luzon in 44.

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/8/2015 6:46:29 PM

mind_messing

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Where would you rather defend?

As I've said, you can't ram anywhere near as many aircraft onto the Bonin's and if the Allies get on Luzon, they can work up towards Formosa and Okinawa with just land-based aircraft.

The Marianas are a unique oppertunity to fight the Allied CV force without Allied LBA in support.

I think that if you don't shoot the farm on the Marianas, later defences will be so much harder as the Allies are bombing your production into ashes turn after turn.

All good points. I would rather be fighting in Oz and the Gilberts in 45, like Topeverest's game, but oh well...

Keep in mind that topeverest's game has juiced Japan out of the ball-park.

quote:

I was curious if you could build up the Marianas so much the Allies go another route...something like what is happening in Wargamr's AAR up thru SRA into China and Luzon.

I think that depends on your opponent. The attraction of the Marianas is two fold:

- The bases can be built up quite large and (both for future invasions and for B-29 bombing) and are isolated from Japanese counter-attacks and raids.
- They simplify logistics - once Wake is captured/suppressed the Allies can ship from the West Coast to PH then directly to the Marianas.

Put it quite simply, if the Allies decide not to go for the Marianas, the only other real options they can go for are the Kuriles or to try to work towards Luzon.

quote:

I think I would rather fight there...I especially like Luzon, with railroads, multiple airbases, some safe from shore bombardment, railroads...in fact there are several size 8 or soon to be 8's runways on Luzon now.

All that glitters is not gold. The same is true of Luzon.

It looks nice, with the inland airbases and the railroad connections, but you have to think about the rest of the PI. There are dozens of islands south of Luzon with good airbase potentials, and you can't hope to defend them all. When the Allies come for Luzon, they can take several of these islands and start building airbases quicker than you can bomb them.

Once the airbases are up, escorted 4E's will be able to start pounding Luzon into dust, the Allied battleships can get LR-CAP for bombardment runs and the USN fleet carriers are left free to do what they will.

See Obvert and Joc's AAR for a good example of this.

Compare that with the Marianas, where the only aircraft that can reach the islands are 4E's and any battleship bombardments need carrier escorts to be possible.

That's not to say that Luzon shouldn't be as much of a fortress as you can make it, just to say that there are better places to have your line in the sand.

quote:

I don't think you will see a contested invasion against an atoll without heavy disruption among the defenders. There is a possibility you will see that kind of fight against a larger Island? Don't know. Didn't Loka invade Wake relatively early on against you?

I'm not sure that's the case. When Loka raided Wake, the aviation unit and the CD unit drew most of the distruption and left the two combat units in reasonable condition.

With a larger island = more units = harder job to deal out disruption. At least, that's what I hope. CD units seem to absorb distruption for other units, keep the bombarding ships honest and deal some damage to troops unloading.

There's no forced shock attack for larger islands, but there is the defender's auto-bombard to think about.

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Post #: 2859

RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/8/2015 9:19:51 PM

Lowpe

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Aug 23, 1943

No night bombing. Endo Det gets withdrawn in several days. They are credited with four kills, and only suffered one loss and that on the ground to a daytime bombing mission.

Normal Allied bombing. American picket ships have returned to duty in single or two ship task forces.

At Kobe, a new ship. A warship! A really good warship! Those Zeroes will get upgraded to the 5c model right away, so that the A6M5s can be used from the pool to convert some Jake squadrons over to fighters. Can't remember how many, but at least one squadron.

What to accelerate now? More CVs? DDs and Es? The two remaining CLs (nah!). SSTs? Nah. Bank the HI savings....nah. The torpedo plane carrying subs? Tankers?

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< Message edited by Lowpe -- 1/8/2015 10:20:12 PM >

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/8/2015 9:22:16 PM

Lowpe

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Ok, pretty convinced to make the Marianas tough nut to crack. Yesterday a whole lot of support units landed at Saipan, and another 30K of supply. Not nearly enough, but stuff is heading out every day.

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/8/2015 9:33:02 PM

Lowpe

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From around the Empire...random bits of news.

POW has been making her way to better repair yards...but she will be gone for a while! I think I managed to get one sub on her south of Ceylon, but they couldn't breach the ASW screens.

Two pilots escape! That is great...need more.

Allies building Ramree...busy little beavers.

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/8/2015 10:40:29 PM

topeverest

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Tough call. I have seen two basic solutions that seem to work better than others in the late war.

IMHO, not possible to hold the Marianna's without a maximum effort. Ask yourself if that is where you plan to expense the bulk of your combat fleets. I think you should give the allies a major road bump, but you have to ask yourself how you are going to combat the CV force - how many does he have active right now - and the dreaded corsairs & F6F. Very nasty with excellent pilots when you only have a limited number of exposed bases to launch from.

IMHO, in most cases, it is better to expense your fleets in and around the Philippines, where you can hide it and strike suddenly and with massed kamis from multiple bases - getting something meaningful in exchange. don't get me wrong. I am all for big forts, mines, subs, and some small naval force counterpulse, but I would not be making my maximum defense there or expensing massive air or naval assets.

Ever thought of taking the initiative and invading somewhere painful?

_____________________________

Andy M

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/8/2015 10:47:09 PM

topeverest

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A few more thoughts - - - -

IMHO - Allied CVE's by later 43 are a menace as great or greater than the fleet CV's if they are massed. The only empire late war formula that can work (that I have seen) is when empire surface counterpulse ships reach the allied CV's and shake them up a bit - combined with an LBA, Kami, and Fleet response - I don't know a better way in late war to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

Said more broadly, I strongly believe that Decisive Battle is the only option that can meaningfully extend the late war. Attritional strategies will be ineffective except around the edges. The trick is knowing when to make that maximum effort.

_____________________________

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/8/2015 10:52:27 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: topeverest

Ever thought of taking the initiative and invading somewhere painful?

Not really....too painful for me I think. Counter invade Wake? That is more my speed, but even there the risk reward is not worth it I think.

I did get more than halfway to bombing Seattle and the Boeing factories there once before scrubbing the mission, and I have thought about lately too.

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/8/2015 10:56:21 PM

Lowpe

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Long legged Norms...on a mission. A secret mission. Deep, deep at sea. The CS is acting like an oiler for some destroyers. A few xaks are following with fuel. A CA, CL are also with them, or nearbye, and in this case nearbye is a dozen hexes....it would be sweet to come across a CVE on ASW patrol.

It would have been nice to use the three fast CS's with 60 Jakes on convoy raiding deep in the Ocean, preferably an Ocean where there is no enemy CVs in 1942 to early 43. Missed that chance.

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< Message edited by Lowpe -- 1/8/2015 11:57:47 PM >

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/8/2015 11:14:45 PM

mind_messing

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quote:

ORIGINAL: topeverest

IMHO, in most cases, it is better to expense your fleets in and around the Philippines, where you can hide it and strike suddenly and with massed kamis from multiple bases - getting something meaningful in exchange. don't get me wrong. I am all for big forts, mines, subs, and some small naval force counterpulse, but I would not be making my maximum defense there or expensing massive air or naval assets.

We'll need to disagree on this.

I can't see how it is preferable to fight around the Philippines. Allowing the Allies to bring short-legged LBA into play more than out-weighs any advantage the Philippines provides the defender. You can be sure that short-legged LBA will be in play - there's just too many bases in the area to garrison, so the Allies can have LBA CAP up on D-Day +1.

A move on the Marianas will require the Allied player to actually take an island before he has a single LBA fighter plane on CAP over his invasion fleet. He has to depend on his carrier CAP, which will need to provide CAP for the carriers and the invasion fleet, as well as escort any anti-shipping or suppression bombing raids.

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/8/2015 11:16:35 PM

Lowpe

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Ships I like and use a lot:

The clip art is very well done. Hats off!

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< Message edited by Lowpe -- 1/9/2015 12:26:33 AM >

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/8/2015 11:22:21 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing
A move on the Marianas will require the Allied player to actually take an island before he has a single LBA fighter plane on CAP over his invasion fleet. He has to depend on his carrier CAP, which will need to provide CAP for the carriers and the invasion fleet, as well as escort any anti-shipping or suppression bombing raids.

Lets see the Marianas timeline from an Allied perspective: Move a CVE task force in with tons of fighters. Protected by surface groups, supported with ample subs. Race fletchers in and out.

If the Japanese raid this group, 300-600 planes and pilots gone. Maybe a few CVEs hit. Then the very next day the more CVEs show up. The following day the CVs, Invasion fleets, the shore bombardments, the minesweepers.

Invade one or two of the smaller bases, establish a fighter base and put corsairs there.

Game over...except for the dying.

From the Japanese perspective: spot the invasion/fleets early. Withold your airplanes from a first day trap. Hit the invasion fleets somehow. Fight to the last riceball on Guam and Saipan and Tinian delaying the B29 scourge for as long as possible.

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 1/9/2015 12:24:57 AM >

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/9/2015 12:14:21 AM

mind_messing

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing
A move on the Marianas will require the Allied player to actually take an island before he has a single LBA fighter plane on CAP over his invasion fleet. He has to depend on his carrier CAP, which will need to provide CAP for the carriers and the invasion fleet, as well as escort any anti-shipping or suppression bombing raids.

Invade one or two of the smaller bases, establish a fighter base and put corsairs there.

That right there is the problem. The Allies need to take that base on D-Day +1 to have fighters on it by D-Day +2.

Otherwise, they have a choice - leave their CVE's in range of Japanese land-based air or leave the ground troops without air cover and hope that enough got ashore to capture the island.

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/9/2015 11:12:08 AM

njp72

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For what its worth my 2 cents worth of advice fighting against the Allies and a very competent opponent during the later stages of the war is as follows:

1. Always try to fight naval air as opposed to land based.

2. The closer the major battles are to the HI, the far better chance you have of inflicting real punishment.

3. Targeting fleet CVs with air is largely a waste of time and the cost is prohibitive. Going after CVEs and amphib task forces can deliver some decent results.

4. Supply goes off a cliff once the intensity of land and air battles increases in late 44.

5. Be prepared to be patient. Decent air strike packages need land and CV coordination plus large airbases + support. If used in isolation of one another they will generally fail.

6. Naturally and unfortunately be prepared to lose unless the Sun God intervenes and destroys his fleet with a typhoon or some other bizarre event. :-)

cheers

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing
A move on the Marianas will require the Allied player to actually take an island before he has a single LBA fighter plane on CAP over his invasion fleet. He has to depend on his carrier CAP, which will need to provide CAP for the carriers and the invasion fleet, as well as escort any anti-shipping or suppression bombing raids.

Invade one or two of the smaller bases, establish a fighter base and put corsairs there.

That right there is the problem. The Allies need to take that base on D-Day +1 to have fighters on it by D-Day +2.

Otherwise, they have a choice - leave their CVE's in range of Japanese land-based air or leave the ground troops without air cover and hope that enough got ashore to capture the island.

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/9/2015 4:29:43 PM

Lowpe

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quote:

ORIGINAL: njp72

For what its worth my 2 cents worth of advice fighting against the Allies and a very competent opponent during the later stages of the war is as follows:

Your two cents are always welcome!

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/9/2015 4:34:25 PM

Lowpe

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I got my turn down, and around, and I am still just moving troops and supply around. Fiddling with search patterns, sending out some raiders again, and pilot training.

Chengtu will see heavier Japanese bombing and another deliberate attack. Should knock the forts down to 1, possibly 0 with this battle.

200 Fighters will be flying lrcap over the troops at Tuang Gyi. I could fly out of Tuang, but I need a connected rail line back so that the frames can escape and live to fight another day. George up high, and the George, Oscar IV and Tojo IIc at mid altitude to attack the bombers.

LRCAP hasn't worked for me real well. The Squadrons seem to want to fly off to far distant bases and get into dogfights with fighters, rather than follow their orders. We will see what happens here.

Upgraded a Rufe squadron to A6M5s. Will do several of the other FF squadrons too. I need fighters more than float fighters.

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/9/2015 6:22:26 PM

Lowpe

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These are the danger thrusts I currently worry about.

A strike at Hokkaido.

A strike at the Marianas.

A strike at Kavieng, and the base south of it.

A strike at Tavoy area.

A strike at Sabang.

Darwin, Perth seem quiet, so a strike at the lower SRA seems unlikely, as does a strike at Port Moresby.

Tavoy strike would be steaming into massed land based air, and large surface assets of IJN.

But the others would all prove very troublesome.

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/9/2015 8:38:19 PM

Lokasenna

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It's been a while since you/I ruminated on your opponent's naval losses, but I seem to recall that they are not insignificant, yes?

If so, I wouldn't except a move on Hokkaido simply because supporting it would prove too costly.

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/9/2015 10:45:03 PM

Lowpe

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You may be right, I have sunk close to 900 ships.

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/10/2015 12:42:59 AM

Lowpe

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Aug 24, 1943

I screwed up and sent only a partially done turn...my bad. My LR CAP and attack on Chengtu fell into an operational abyss somewhere, will try the LR CAP this next day.

No night bombing.

Normal Allied bombing.

Normal fleet movements of troops, supplies and ships.

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RE: Burma Bungle! - 1/10/2015 11:29:25 AM

Lowpe

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Aug 25, 1943...

No night bombing...

Off Madras a large Allied transport or invasion fleet...