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RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjoy (J)

 
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RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/24/2015 11:06:44 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I think he's simply played a different kind of war here. He's moving to contain, separate then squeeze, like a python, rather than a quick viper's strike. (At least after the debacle in Sian in early 42).

Which he targeted, so right away not what I'm talking about.

In not building more big airfields he may be thinking of his supply constraints, and those might dictate some things, the PDU-off might dictate others. To be fair, hitting Chungking is not as easy as in a stock game. I've had CAP here intermittently throughout the game, often including very good airframes that he'd have to overwhelm with numbers. He's done that on occasions, and he probably should have hit the industry, but we do have HRs on strat bombing allowing onl manpower attacks and an increasing scale of bombers for night strikes, (50 for 42 and 100 in 43). I know you're not a fan of HRs but this one will help the Japanese more than me over the course of the game, I'd say.

Not in China.

You're still not getting it. First 2-3 months. You have no good airframes. The Chinese air force is wiped, or in your case runs away. The AVG in stock starts with crap planes, and there is no AF in Asia over level 4. None. You can't upgrade to P-40Es anywhere, you can't fly out and replace. But the P-40E pool starts at zero anyway. Goose egg. And you might want a few at Pearl. And even the mighty AVG starts at 55 EXP and 55 Morale. Did DBB make them magical somehow? And even if you get them in they're three small squadrons. Zeros can certainly give them a run and attrit them. After they're gone (and they withdraw on July 4th, 1942 I think) what have you got? Hurricanes? Big pools there. And a long, long trip in from India.

You've got CAP in central China now because he let you. He had the tools to prevent it. He used them elsewhere.


Even the comparatively poor Chinese AA will do some damage. He loses several planes a day from 15k when bombing Chungking with 100 2E, and gets decent hits on the fields but not as much on the manpower. (This still hurts me, as the AA takes a good bunch of supply).

And he let you have open hexsides. This is the key.

Strat bombing:

manpower strikes allowed during daylight
manpower strikes allowed during night with sliding scale:

25 planes/target in 41
50 planes/target in 42
100 planes/target in 43
200 planes/target in 44
400 planes/target in 45-46.


quote:


In an SL game it is strategic malpractice to invade India.


If Calcutta's industry was taken intact taking India would have been a good move in this game.

Calcutta has 500 LI and 520 HI in stock. But only 60 Resources and no Fuel. An Allied player can isolate it industrially pretty easily. If all you want from India is Calcutta, do go. It's a huge waste of effort, shipping, fuel, various types of Japanese points, and time.

Chungking has about 500 points of both industries, and more Resources. It's a lot closer too.


Rader proved what that could do for the Japanese, using the extra supply to both spur second tier objectives and to push industry and RnD beyond normal levels. (Too bad he left his back door open!)

Calcutta supply has to be moved out to be of any use. It doesn't natively help R&D except as a substitute perhaps. And a lot of what it makes is eaten defending itself.

To use your list you'd have to have some different conditions than the DBB game we're playing. These are very good ideas, and other than the strat bombing, similar to how I took China in my two games as Japan. I'll tackle this out of order as some things require explanation first to get to the others.

quote:

6. Take an AF in bombing range of Chungking. Proceed to burn down its industry. This should take at most six weeks. During this time the armored spearhead, whose function is hexside control, moves to Chungking. Probably generally west and then SE from Kienko. Alternatively NE from Kwieyang. Just get there. The Chinese have no AT weapons to speak of. Routing casualties will be massive.


In DBB the Chinese have 37mm AT guns in most big Corps to start as well as two independent units with these guns. It makes a big difference. They won't kill as many tanks as I'd like, but they do damage them, and that ends up making him rotate units and rest others, taking time.

Already addressed this. Stock has internal AT guns too.

quote:

1. Form IJA armor into a spearhead. Aim it at Chungking. Follow with infantry. Leave the arty behind.


The heavy siege arty the Japanese possess is their best weapon in China with SL. In a stuck spot he brings in 27-32 inch siege guns and blasts away for weeks until supply is gone, units are totally disrupted and have 100s of disabled squads, and then the tanks come to push through, once the AT guns are less effective.

Again, heavy brush bad for tanks, good for Chinese. Don't play his game. Go around, or go through on road hexes. Follow up with infantry to mop up and keep supply corridor open.

quote:

2. Form a combined-arms spearhead in the SE and move aggressively west, taking the RR. The target is a stopper at Tsuyung.


The SL in the mountains is hex after hex of 20k and x3 terrain. You don't move through that quickly. Period.

You can if you get there first. Period.

That's one division or one tank division with some arty. That's all. The Chinese can put 500AV in each hex and build a few forts. It often takes a month to blast through each hex with concentrated air power and bombardments, plus rotating units in and out.

Again, first 2-3 months. If they take the whole western starting establishment and put it in the mountains it starves. They must hold Kunming or it's over. It's only three hexes to Tsuyung from there. SL means "costs more supply." It doesn't mean the SL limit is absolute. The Japanese can overstack in the attack and pay the price for a short time. They'll have Kunming at their backs and the Chinese have nothing worthwhile until Mandalay. that's a lot of supply waste if Mandalay even can forward any. It has it's own problems.

quote:

3. Destroy the Chinese air force. This takes a month, tops. They're flying biplanes. Nates can even work.


The Chinese air force never fights in China. It moves to India immediately. There they train and take a rear CAP role. The bombers hunt subs.

So no air force. Gottcha.

The AVG moves into China as opportunity allows.

Already covered. No AVG. Your mention of the P-40K again shows you're not getting the time frame.

If the Japanese are flying anything other than A6M with expert pilots the AVG racks up kills each time it appears, taking out lightly defended bombing runs and forcing the Japanese to move in their best fighter groups. Then they fly out before facing them. Upgrade airframe. Repeat. With PDU-of the Tojo groups are limited and the P40K seems to do well against them in defense.

quote:

4. Leave Sian and Changsha alone. They're for later. Chungking is the target.


After the first battle of Sain, Nick did leave both of these alone until he could no longer leave Changsha. That base gets a ton of supply and can rebuild units, supply the areas around it and also support the air infusions of the AVG right in the middle of the country where they can strike any number of areas.

In stock it starts with 22 points of productive industry, and 160/day organic. Whee! A party! It has about 200 points damaged. Gonna repair that? Did DBB make Changsha an industrial powerhouse?

quote:

5. Run xAKL supplies up the river and establish a large supply node at Wuchang. The AI does this every game. Maybe Japan players do it, but I see few mention it.


Not necessary, as supply moves well from Shanghai into central China. Wastes fuel. Also, if my opponent was doing this I would have sunk those xAKL if Changsha was left untaken.

With what? Your air force ran away. In stock you get a handful of Hudsons, but they can't hit a mountain let alone a ship. If you don't like it fine, but the devs had the AI do it. Big supply closer is always better than big supply farther.

quote:

7. Move non-AV LCUs out of the M. Garrison and into the SE sector. Proceed to mop up lone Chinese LCUs and set them into the resurrection queue. Begin this on 12/8/41 as well.


There are few lone Chinese Corps if the Allied player is diligent in moving them back behind the lines.

Weeks, not months. And moving they have no forts.

Early I let 4-5 tiny ones die blocking the rails. After this anything small is in the rear.

If Japan lets you.

quote:

8. Close Chungking's hexsides with armor and air power. The city should be on stored supply plus 420/day organic by now. This is about two months in now. Chinese LCUs should still have terrible leaders, terrible morale, terrible training levels. This step cannot wait until June-Aug. February is the month. As I said, don't dink around at Sian, Lanchow, Changsha. Leave them alone. If Chengtu looks easy, take it. It's very valuable right away. Otherwise wait.


For all of the above reasons you never will get there in two months. Or four months. Or six months. In SL it takes much longer with good play.

If Japan is fighting whatever China offers it's not good play, no.

Even with good play from both sides it should take a year, minimum, to get near Chungking.

I strenuously disagree. SL didn't change the basic model. It didn't change device stats. It didn't change leadership or the woeful training and disablement rate of the initial Chinese army. It doesn't give China an air force. It doesn't give them one tank. It makes defending in rough terrain easier. That's it. If Japan insists on ramming itself into rough terrain then, yeah SL is harder. But if Japan doesn't go to India, does strip the M. Garrison of non-AV support units, and does invest in proper air power, it's not a year. Not even close.

Then even it's difficult to close all hex sides.

If you HR removing Chungking's industry it's harder. It's not impossible with the right mix, armor-heavy.

Right now Nick is fighting with a maxed hex between Kweiyang and Chungking, and none of the four Corps there are full of supply (one has none). Only three of the four have forts built. Yet still in two attacks he's gotten negative results costing 300+ disabled infantry squads to about 50 for the Chinese. This is even with air strikes and very experienced Japanese units. One of my units is a zombie with no arty at all even, but I wanted to see how the Chinese 43 squads would do. Seems like they're good!

If I had an air bridge it wouldn't even matter that he takes out the industry at Chungking. I just keep applying more transports as they arrive.

You really need to look at arrival dates and locations and carrying capacity of the available transports in 1942. Replace 500 production points? Not gonna happen. (Not to mention that the monsoon can run Ledo supply to nothing on occasion.)




< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 1/25/2015 12:29:27 AM >


_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1711
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/24/2015 11:08:54 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


China is just tougher in DBB than in stock.


It's not DBB that allows you to run 150-Hellcat CAPS over central China in mid-1943.

Is DBB/SL the new "you play the AI" sneer?

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1712
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/24/2015 11:56:32 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

The one thing about SL in a game is that the Japanese player "has" to move into India to cut off the flow of supply to China. In order to defeat Chinese stacks with SL they have to be very low on supply. If the supply is not cut then you won't move those units.


I disagree here. A dictionary will drive a nail, but it's the wrong tool. Cutting off Chinese supply is immensely easier from the China side. Take Tsuyung and it's pretty much stoppered. India takes an opposed landing, importing air power, fighting Brit, Aussies, and Indian troops which have armor and lots of supply, and a slog all the way north to the cut-off. That's after Japan deals with Rangoon, so months into the war. China is much easier with bad Chinese troops, air power galore already in theater, tanks, and supply at their backs.


Well, let me qualify a bit. Even with supply good Japanese play is going to eventually drive the Allies into Chungking, Lanchow and the mountains around Kumming, which in my opinion might be good enough and all they should try to do. But what I am really referring to is to totally knock China out of the war. In both of my campaigns it has been the case of me retreating into the mountains to the West and then using transports from India to keep some supply flow. However, in our second go around Viberpol has invaded India far enough to cut that flow. So, the question will be just like Obvert can I hold out in China until I run him out of India. If not I will eventually collapse as there is only a trickle of supply coming out of Kumming. However with stacking limits the Japanese really can't totally eliminate the Chinese if they have supply. I am talking with PDU off here. A good Japanese player can still take China out with or without SL. I know because Ark almost did it last game without invading India and will come damn close this one even with SL in play. And I think I have a pretty good grip on Allied play so he is not having an easy time of it.

However, as long as the Allies put up a good fight, I don't consider China to hold much strategic value for Japan. Last til mid 43 and it does not matter if you lose China or not. He will have already paid too much for it.


_____________________________

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(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1713
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 12:00:09 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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I'm not saying moving to India as Japan is the 'correct' strategy. I'm simply saying you're wrong about China being so easy you can get to Chungking in 2-3 months. Oh, I get your timeframe. I also get that you don't apparently know the SL map or much about the Japanese OOB.

Your points are valid in theory, but not in practice in DBB with SL and in PDU-off. That is not a slight toward you, just an objective statement, so don't turn it into something personal.

You are not looking at the practicality of statements like 'get there first' in regard to the mountains, or 'go around' the blockades. Until you play with SL and in DBB it's just not going to make sense to you why these things won't work. I can say it, but you have to see it and play it to know how someone might play against you.

You can't 'get there first' if you can't get through the first blocks. Even if you do there is another one up the road. As you work on that one more form behind it. When you try to go around it takes time to walk into rough forest hexes, and a whole lot more time for armor to go there. In fact it's a to slower to go off road, and you're the one not getting the timeframe. Try moving units off road virtually from below Tuyun to Kweiyang in order to bypass there. At 4 hexes a day that's almost two weeks to get to your first hex. Then two weeks to get out. Guess what joins you there once you're in it. The Chinese!

Once you start going the Chinese simply start as well, and you end up both maxing the hex and it's a stalemate the same as on the road, but less supply and slower movement, so you can't rotate units.

You also can't be 'armor heavy' this early as Japan. Your tank divisions aren't complete in the beginning and you have to plan to make sure those units are in the same places when the other parts arrive through the first several months of 42 so you can buy them out and bring them to China. So the schedule is off for this reason alone. I'm 'getting the timeframe' and it doesn't work.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


You're still not getting it. First 2-3 months. You have no good airframes. The Chinese air force is wiped, or in your case runs away. The AVG in stock starts with crap planes, and there is no AF in Asia over level 4. None. You can't upgrade to P-40Es anywhere, you can't fly out and replace. But the P-40E pool starts at zero anyway. Goose egg. And you might want a few at Pearl. And even the mighty AVG starts at 55 EXP and 55 Morale. Did DBB make them magical somehow? And even if you get them in they're three small squadrons. Zeros can certainly give them a run and attrit them. After they're gone (and they withdraw on July 4th, 1942 I think) what have you got? Hurricanes? Big pools there. And a long, long trip in from India.

You've got CAP in central China now because he let you. He had the tools to prevent it. He used them elsewhere.


You're getting a bit extreme in your lack of ability to see clearly here. I know you're more creative than this. You're good enough at rhetoric, but you don't seem to be seeing the other side! On top of that I sense the rudeness of frustration popping in. Magical?

You're not getting it because you haven't played the Japanese side, and you haven't played with SL ,and you haven't played with PDU-off.

As you well understand the AVG gets early kills against poor quality Nates and Oscars and becomes a good set of fighter groups. I think this is fairly standard WITP knowledge and practice. (Oh, and it happened in the war, too).

The H81-A3 in DBB is a decent plane which at 345mph is faster than any of the contemporary Japanese fighters, has two centerline 50 cal and has armor.

Are you getting my timeframe yet?
quote:


quote:

If Calcutta's industry was taken intact taking India would have been a good move in this game.


Calcutta has 500 LI and 520 HI in stock. But only 60 Resources and no Fuel. An Allied player can isolate it industrially pretty easily. If all you want from India is Calcutta, do go. It's a huge waste of effort, shipping, fuel, various types of Japanese points, and time.

Chungking has about 500 points of both industries, and more Resources. It's a lot closer too.


Huh. Maybe you're forgetting Ledo, with 75 oil and 75 refinery? Have a look at Jamshedpur and Asanol, both three hexes away. A total of 1,000 resource points between them.

Why am I even answering this rubbish when you don't even bother to look at the map?
quote:


Rader proved what that could do for the Japanese, using the extra supply to both spur second tier objectives and to push industry and RnD beyond normal levels. (Too bad he left his back door open!)

Calcutta supply has to be moved out to be of any use. It doesn't natively help R&D except as a substitute perhaps. And a lot of what it makes is eaten defending itself.

quote:

1. Form IJA armor into a spearhead. Aim it at Chungking. Follow with infantry. Leave the arty behind.


The heavy siege arty the Japanese possess is their best weapon in China with SL. In a stuck spot he brings in 27-32 inch siege guns and blasts away for weeks until supply is gone, units are totally disrupted and have 100s of disabled squads, and then the tanks come to push through, once the AT guns are less effective.

Again, heavy brush bad for tanks, good for Chinese. Don't play his game. Go around, or go through on road hexes. Follow up with infantry to mop up and keep supply corridor open.


Already addressed this. Try out your armor now through that rough forest hex. Do you somehow get them to move faster than I can?
quote:


quote:

2. Form a combined-arms spearhead in the SE and move aggressively west, taking the RR. The target is a stopper at Tsuyung.


The SL in the mountains is hex after hex of 20k and x3 terrain. You don't move through that quickly. Period.

You can if you get there first. Period.


Again. How? Maybe you'd like to count it out for me? The Chinese start with several big Corps in Chungking to move down if they please. Where will you go with big enough SL to overwhelm them? Where will you go to get around them that they can't simply move into that same hex and stop you?
quote:


Again, first 2-3 months. If they take the whole western starting establishment and put it in the mountains it starves. They must hold Kunming or it's over. It's only three hexes to Tsuyung from there. SL means "costs more supply." It doesn't mean the SL limit is absolute. The Japanese can overstack in the attack and pay the price for a short time. They'll have Kunming at their backs and the Chinese have nothing worthwhile until Mandalay. that's a lot of supply waste if Mandalay even can forward any. It has it's own problems.


You don't make it to Kunming for a good while longer. It took Nick more than a month a hex with a full tank division and a tank brigade (maxed hex) up there, supported by heavy air strikes. He even had trouble with several x2 hexes because during the first months to get to them the Chinese were able to dig.

Okay. So have you tried overstacking and attacking in a x3 hex against dug-in troops?

Overstacking means your units may end up fighting at higher disruption, fatigue and lower supply than their Chinese counterparts. Basically, like a river crossing. But with less supply. The effect increases as you get farther over the limit. Good luck.

quote:

So no air force. Gottcha.
Gotcha?

The AVG moves into China as opportunity allows.

quote:

Already covered. No AVG. Your mention of the P-40K again shows you're not getting the time frame.
You may notice the Tojo. Looking ahead here, as your timeframe simply doesn't work.

quote:

quote:

If the Japanese are flying anything other than A6M with expert pilots the AVG racks up kills each time it appears, taking out lightly defended bombing runs and forcing the Japanese to move in their best fighter groups. Then they fly out before facing them. Upgrade airframe. Repeat. With PDU-of the Tojo groups are limited and the P40K seems to do well against them in defense.


quote:

7. Move non-AV LCUs out of the M. Garrison and into the SE sector. Proceed to mop up lone Chinese LCUs and set them into the resurrection queue. Begin this on 12/8/41 as well.


quote:

quote:

There are few lone Chinese Corps if the Allied player is diligent in moving them back behind the lines.


Weeks, not months. And moving they have no forts.


Huh? Have you never seen the Chinese scatter and get away? You start turn one. All leave the plains and go to x3 territory. A few die.
quote:


quote:

Early I let 4-5 tiny ones die blocking the rails. After this anything small is in the rear.


If Japan lets you.
Key word. Die.

quote:

quote:

Even with good play from both sides it should take a year, minimum, to get near Chungking.


I strenuously disagree. SL didn't change the basic model. It didn't change device stats. It didn't change leadership or the woeful training and disablement rate of the initial Chinese army. It doesn't give China an air force. It doesn't give them one tank. It makes defending in rough terrain easier. That's it. If Japan insists on ramming itself into rough terrain then, yeah SL is harder. But if Japan doesn't go to India, does strip the M. Garrison of non-AV support units, and does invest in proper air power, it's not a year. Not even close.


Play it. It changes a lot if you work with it. You'll probably like it. But you'll never say I told you so!



< Message edited by obvert -- 1/25/2015 11:23:25 AM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1714
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 12:10:14 AM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

The one thing about SL in a game is that the Japanese player "has" to move into India to cut off the flow of supply to China. In order to defeat Chinese stacks with SL they have to be very low on supply. If the supply is not cut then you won't move those units.


I disagree here. A dictionary will drive a nail, but it's the wrong tool. Cutting off Chinese supply is immensely easier from the China side. Take Tsuyung and it's pretty much stoppered. India takes an opposed landing, importing air power, fighting Brit, Aussies, and Indian troops which have armor and lots of supply, and a slog all the way north to the cut-off. That's after Japan deals with Rangoon, so months into the war. China is much easier with bad Chinese troops, air power galore already in theater, tanks, and supply at their backs.


I could be wrong, but I think crsutton is referring to an air bridge, much like what Mr Kane has used successfully, from Ledo and other Indian bases in range of Chengtu and the central plains. I would say it would have been much easier to defend in China had I been able to fly a few hundred supply a day even into Chengtu. Nick also seems to want to keep me from doing that as he's camped a bunch of the IJA in far NE India around Dimapur.


The air bridge helps, but the Allies don't begin to have the transports needed until well into 1942. If Japan plays China correctly Chungking will be gone before air transport can really help.


Yep, the issue is time and I agree fully. Move fast, block Sian, Ignore the North and drive balls for leather for Chungking. However, in my book I then diverge. Surround Chungking with enough to hold it and then drive West while pushing from Burma. The reason is that any forces to the West are now almost fully out of supply if Chungking and Chentu have been islolated. Take Kumming and Paoshan and the air bridge does not matter no matter what the year. Once you have done this you can kill off the rest of China at your leisure. No a real hurry either. But you are right, the key is airpower. Close the bases to the West and no Allied first generation fighter can move into China. You won't even need fighter escort for your bombers.

_____________________________

I am the Holy Roman Emperor and am above grammar.

Sigismund of Luxemburg

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1715
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 12:13:13 AM   
Lokasenna


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The first blocks don't exist if you... get there first. It can be done. Paratroopers and transports start at or near enough to Formosa to be using them out of Canton by the end of the first week of the war. You can use them from there to take the best Chinese supply lines away from them simply by cutting the rails and roads. A lot of those second string Chinese bases start with nothing in them. Recon them and take the empty ones while you move up to engage the front line of the Chinese. Bring in the armor and arty from Manchuria. By January, Japan should be past Liuchow/Kweilin and marching to Kweiyang. And that's before anything from Manchuria even arrives in this area.

Letting the Chinese get set up in the bush to block all the roads and whatnot is a gift from Japan to the Allies. It should never happen.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1716
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 12:16:13 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

China is just tougher in DBB than in stock.


It's not DBB that allows you to run 150-Hellcat CAPS over central China in mid-1943.

Is DBB/SL the new "you play the AI" sneer?




No. As you know I defend the knowledge and skill of several players who used to be maligned for only playing the AI. Usually including you, but I'm starting to wonder here.

Why is it personal to you that this mod might be a tougher game than the one you're playing? Why would you imagine I was saying that with a sneer? I didn't make the mod and have no investment in it. I'm just playing a game. My intent here is to argue that Nick could not have done what you suggest with at least decent play from my side.

In spite of the low blow, I am trying to stay within an objective framework and that includes areas you refuse to acknowledge.

You can argue all you want. You just have so little actual basis to go on it's laughable. I haven't even mentioned the fact that in the first few months of the war timeframe you're talking about the SRA has to be taken. Any ideas about how to do that while you're going all-in for China with a Japanese blitzkrieg that doesn't have the armor you need for another few months?

< Message edited by obvert -- 1/25/2015 1:28:45 AM >


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1717
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 12:21:35 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

The first blocks don't exist if you... get there first. It can be done. Paratroopers and transports start at or near enough to Formosa to be using them out of Canton by the end of the first week of the war. You can use them from there to take the best Chinese supply lines away from them simply by cutting the rails and roads. A lot of those second string Chinese bases start with nothing in them. Recon them and take the empty ones while you move up to engage the front line of the Chinese. Bring in the armor and arty from Manchuria. By January, Japan should be past Liuchow/Kweilin and marching to Kweiyang. And that's before anything from Manchuria even arrives in this area.

Letting the Chinese get set up in the bush to block all the roads and whatnot is a gift from Japan to the Allies. It should never happen.


This is really funny to me. I actually have played the Japanese side pretty well in China. I actually made almost exactly the moves Bull is advocating and you're supporting. I still didn't get to Chungking in 2-3 months. Either time. I did wreck China and once made a truce so the game could continue, the other time took everything but Paoshan. I had Chungking in early 43.

I know how to do it. I'm simply saying I couldn't do what I did with SL in play and with the DBB air fixes and with PDU-off. I simply could not have gotten to Chungking in 2-3 months.

Nick is a very good payer taking on a hard task with PDU-off and its ridiculous to say he could have done what Bullwinkle is suggesting. he could have done more, sure. He might have gotten Chungking sooner than now. But not in 2-3 months. I think you know that too.

< Message edited by obvert -- 1/25/2015 1:25:11 AM >


_____________________________

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(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 1718
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 12:39:18 AM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 11302
Joined: 2/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Well, let me qualify a bit. Even with supply good Japanese play is going to eventually drive the Allies into Chungking, Lanchow and the mountains around Kumming, which in my opinion might be good enough and all they should try to do. But what I am really referring to is to totally knock China out of the war. In both of my campaigns it has been the case of me retreating into the mountains to the West and then using transports from India to keep some supply flow. However, in our second go around Viberpol has invaded India far enough to cut that flow. So, the question will be just like Obvert can I hold out in China until I run him out of India. If not I will eventually collapse as there is only a trickle of supply coming out of Kumming. However with stacking limits the Japanese really can't totally eliminate the Chinese if they have supply. I am talking with PDU off here. A good Japanese player can still take China out with or without SL. I know because Ark almost did it last game without invading India and will come damn close this one even with SL in play. And I think I have a pretty good grip on Allied play so he is not having an easy time of it.

However, as long as the Allies put up a good fight, I don't consider China to hold much strategic value for Japan. Last til mid 43 and it does not matter if you lose China or not. He will have already paid too much for it.



I think invading far enough to cut the air bridge is pretty far for the results you describe. It's way, way out on a Japanese limb given the land upgrades the Allies get to squads and armor by mid-1943.

I agree on Chungking. I don't know the exact date in 1943 where the tilt happens, but it's there. Six months ago it would have been an auto-vic disaster. Now it would just be major surgery without happy juice to come back from.

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(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 1719
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 12:42:48 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I'm not saying moving to India as Japan is the 'correct' strategy. I'm simply saying you're wrong about China being so easy you can get to Chungking in 2-3 months. Oh, I get your timeframe. I also get that you don't apparently know the SL map or much about the Japanese OOB.


I stopped reading at the fourth insult.

Have a nice day.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1720
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 12:45:55 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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Joined: 2/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

The first blocks don't exist if you... get there first. It can be done. Paratroopers and transports start at or near enough to Formosa to be using them out of Canton by the end of the first week of the war. You can use them from there to take the best Chinese supply lines away from them simply by cutting the rails and roads. A lot of those second string Chinese bases start with nothing in them. Recon them and take the empty ones while you move up to engage the front line of the Chinese. Bring in the armor and arty from Manchuria. By January, Japan should be past Liuchow/Kweilin and marching to Kweiyang. And that's before anything from Manchuria even arrives in this area.

Letting the Chinese get set up in the bush to block all the roads and whatnot is a gift from Japan to the Allies. It should never happen.


Wait, wait. You mean YOU understand the Japan OOB? Impossible!!

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The Moose

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 1721
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 12:48:50 AM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I'm not saying moving to India as Japan is the 'correct' strategy. I'm simply saying you're wrong about China being so easy you can get to Chungking in 2-3 months. Oh, I get your timeframe. I also get that you don't apparently know the SL map or much about the Japanese OOB.


I stopped reading at the fourth insult.

Have a nice day.




You can dish it out, but it's tough when it comes back, eh?

Is this the point where I should add, "Gotcha?"

< Message edited by obvert -- 1/25/2015 1:58:43 AM >


_____________________________

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Post #: 1722
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 1:06:24 AM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

The first blocks don't exist if you... get there first. It can be done. Paratroopers and transports start at or near enough to Formosa to be using them out of Canton by the end of the first week of the war. You can use them from there to take the best Chinese supply lines away from them simply by cutting the rails and roads. A lot of those second string Chinese bases start with nothing in them. Recon them and take the empty ones while you move up to engage the front line of the Chinese. Bring in the armor and arty from Manchuria. By January, Japan should be past Liuchow/Kweilin and marching to Kweiyang. And that's before anything from Manchuria even arrives in this area.

Letting the Chinese get set up in the bush to block all the roads and whatnot is a gift from Japan to the Allies. It should never happen.


This is really funny to me. I actually have played the Japanese side pretty well in China. I actually made almost exactly the moves Bull is advocating and you're supporting. I still didn't get to Chungking in 2-3 months. Either time. I did wreck China and once made a truce so the game could continue, the other time took everything but Paoshan. I had Chungking in early 43.

I know how to do it. I'm simply saying I couldn't do what I did with SL in play and with the DBB air fixes and with PDU-off. I simply could not have gotten to Chungking in 2-3 months.

Nick is a very good payer taking on a hard task with PDU-off and its ridiculous to say he could have done what Bullwinkle is suggesting. he could have done more, sure. He might have gotten Chungking sooner than now. But not in 2-3 months. I think you know that too.


I'm not saying Japan could capture it in 2-3 months. Capturing a defended Chungking is definitely a 1943 endeavour. I'm saying Japan could (and should) have China thoroughly dismantled in 2-3 months. You don't run up against stacking limits when you're using paratroops and armor to eviscerate the Chinese supply lines. And the Chinese can't get to the places you can cut off before you drop paratroops there. They have to walk or pack up and use rails. Japan is literally flying there. And how long does it take to build those forts in the bush? If Japan's letting China establish lines and build forts in the bush... well, exactly that: they're letting China do that. They don't have to.

The reason GJ didn't do that is because he went for India instead. I assume. China is an enormous VP bank and you're going to capture all of the SRA anyway, so the strategic objectives for me on Day 1 of the war as Japan are, in order of priority:

1) Ensure that you take enough of the SRA that the rest will crumble. This means Singapore at a reasonable time (definitely before March, 1942), and be threatening Java around the same time. Once you have Singapore, you have the best base in the entire area and if the Allies try to challenge you in the seas, you'll win.

2) Cut off and strangle China. You want these VPs for later, and the Chinese bases are going to be the hardest on the map for the Allies to take back from you, so they're your most secure base VPs. A lot of the deep Chinese bases are worth a multiplier of 10 for Japan. A few others worth a lot more. To do this, you need to cut supply to the Chinese ASAP. That means cutting the road to Burma and intercepting any air transport. Once you have Neikiang, you can LRCAP Chungking and no more supply is coming in through there. I'm going to stop here - do I really need to spell out the process for strangling China? The biggest key is that you have to move quickly so that the Chinese burn more supply than they generate, and can't build forts. SL or no SL.


GJ simply didn't commit enough here to push through soon enough. That was a choice he made, or equally likely a cost of him doing business in India and SW Australia so early.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1723
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 1:14:10 AM   
obvert


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I agree. If you look at my AAR from the game with Jocke I state very early that China is my number 1 priority and that it's the one place Japan can make the most use of it's best early asset; a large, experienced army.

I love the para moves, but they don't always work as easily as planned. I did a few against Torsten (Historiker) and he was really good at reacting and getting Chinese units to block and eventually surround the area. He in fact used a non-SL stock game to his advantage by being really good at assessing just how much would hold and for how long, then knowing when to pull back. He is sitting now with 750k (est.) Chinese in Paoshan. But it took a long time to get them there.

Against Jocke China was on it's knees by April-May but I may have gotten Chungking before the end of 42 if the truce wasn't agreed.

I just really like SL and want to advocate that it makes the game more fun because both sides have to work harder and use skill rather than mass to succeed.

_____________________________

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Post #: 1724
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 1:28:16 AM   
pontiouspilot


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Bull in a China shop: Very interesting post. To me you ask the most important question to come out of this Obvert v. Greyjoy match. I'm not so sure we can judge the wisdom of the India/China dichotomy for another 6 months. I see some tough slogging ahead for our learned friend Mr. Obvert.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1725
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 10:11:58 AM   
obvert


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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: pontiouspilot

Bull in a China shop: Very interesting post. To me you ask the most important question to come out of this Obvert v. Greyjoy match. I'm not so sure we can judge the wisdom of the India/China dichotomy for another 6 months. I see some tough slogging ahead for our learned friend Mr. Obvert.


So do I.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to pontiouspilot)
Post #: 1726
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 10:43:55 AM   
obvert


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May 1 - 2, 1943

It's May!! Lots of new stuff arriving and the biggest is the Essex in a few days!!

SUBS: Peto misses a TK in the DEI.

INDIA: I'll paradrop Tezpur and move troops by rail i nudging the next few days. He's not struck anywhere as I've been inching closer, but this is only 4 hexes fro mhos lines. Feeling a little nervous about it.

SO PAC: Planing a small commando unit raid on Buka to see what is there and maybe grab the place.

CHINA: Another big Tojo strike on the 2nd. Again our guys do well. This is getting scarily consistent, but I am waiting for a hammer to drop and waves of Georges to come flying in after the Tojos. Then I remember he only has one group. It's in Rabaul. PDU-off makes the game much harder to organize for Japan. I have to remember to use this as much as I can, really go to places the good fighters are not. If I was ready for a first big amphib op right now I know exactly where I'd go.

The Japanese try a DA in the x3 near Kweiyang on the 1st with seemingly less than will maximize the hex. They have only one division, one tank division and 9 arty units, plus an HQ. Maybe that fills a 40k hex? My guys are starting to run lower on supply, but still have some. Until the Japanese get closer to a 1:1 I'll keep these here. I have one of my best units poised in the next hex, a 500AV monster with 50+ experience and full of supply. It'll move in eventually to trade out two smaller worn down Corps.

OZ: Meekathera is invested and turns over to the Allied side. Now those bases will be built up in preparation for working on the West coast bases.

SIGINT: Uh Oh! This looks like a KB kind of signals intercept. Something between Truk and Ponape. I'll hedge the amphibs for Mili back and extend search.

Heavy Volume of Radio transmissions detected at 115,112.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR May 1, 43
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 75,47 (near Kweiyang)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 22280 troops, 364 guns, 664 vehicles, Assault Value = 706

Defending force 37400 troops, 58 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1148

Japanese adjusted assault: 216

Allied adjusted defense: 1543

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 7

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2208 casualties reported
Squads: 14 destroyed, 146 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 29 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 25 disabled


Allied ground losses:
271 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 35 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled

Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
1st Tank Division
39th Division
2nd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
4th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
Tonei Hvy Gun Regiment
14th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
12th Army
12th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
1st Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
6th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
11th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
5th Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
2nd Chinese Corps
37th Chinese Corps
84th Chinese Corps
99th Chinese Corps

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR May 2, 43
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Morning Air attack on Chungking , at 76,45

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 29,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 37

Allied aircraft
P-40K Warhawk x 69
F6F-3 Hellcat x 26

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 4 destroyed

No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
23 x Ki-44-IIc Tojo sweeping at 25000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Chungking , at 76,45

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 43 NM, estimated altitude 26,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 37

Allied aircraft
P-40K Warhawk x 66
F6F-3 Hellcat x 24

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 6 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-40K Warhawk: 4 destroyed
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed


Aircraft Attacking:
21 x Ki-44-IIc Tojo sweeping at 25000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Chungking , at 76,45

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 39 NM, estimated altitude 26,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 84

Allied aircraft
P-40K Warhawk x 56
F6F-3 Hellcat x 16

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 6 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-40K Warhawk: 3 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
41 x Ki-44-IIc Tojo sweeping at 25000 feet
12 x Ki-44-IIc Tojo sweeping at 25000 feet
4 x Ki-44-IIc Tojo sweeping at 25000 feet
4 x Ki-44-IIc Tojo sweeping at 25000 feet

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Mili , at 136,121

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 11,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 21

Allied aircraft
P-40B Warhawk x 12
F4F-4 Wildcat x 9
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 21

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 4 destroyed

No Allied losses

Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 2
Runway hits 14

Aircraft Attacking:
11 x PB4Y-1 Liberator bombing from 10000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb
10 x PB4Y-1 Liberator bombing from 10000 feet
Airfield Attack: 10 x 500 lb GP Bomb

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at 66,44 (near Paoshan)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 8690 troops, 207 guns, 556 vehicles, Assault Value = 399

Defending force 13270 troops, 52 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 260

Japanese adjusted assault: 280

Allied adjusted defense: 658

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), morale(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
40 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled

Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Allied ground losses:
298 casualties reported
Squads: 19 destroyed, 13 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 5 disabled

Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Assaulting units:
18th Tank Regiment
Guards Tank Division
13th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
23rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
20th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
8th Medium Field Artillery Regiment

Defending units:
5th New Chinese Corps
3rd Chinese Cavalry Corps
55th Prov Chinese Division
11th Group Army
80th Chinese Corps
49th Chinese Division
34th Chinese Corps
Lusu War Area
32nd Chinese Corps
56th Chinese Corps
5th Group Army
10th Chinese Corps
62nd Chinese Corps
49th Chinese Corps
13th Chinese Base Force
72nd Chinese Corps
16th Chinese Base Force
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Reinforcements: It's May 43!!! This means a few new airframes including the slightly worse version of the already abysmal Wildcat, the FM-1. How did they take two 50cal MG off the pane and the stats for speed, climb and maneuver stay the same?!?

I worry as all CVE are doomed to using the kittens for the duration. Maybe I can use some replenishment groups on them with Hellcats? I seem to suffer with those a lot, and I remember questions about whether they have some kind of combat penalty? Anyone know?







The points as they stand now.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by obvert -- 1/25/2015 11:48:34 AM >


_____________________________

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(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 1727
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 2:32:11 PM   
mind_messing

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

You also can't be 'armor heavy' this early as Japan. Your tank divisions aren't complete in the beginning and you have to plan to make sure those units are in the same places when the other parts arrive through the first several months of 42 so you can buy them out and bring them to China. So the schedule is off for this reason alone. I'm 'getting the timeframe' and it doesn't work.


I like thought experiments.

IJA tank units as of Dec 7th 1941 - NB: this is a hastily prepared list and may not be absolutely accurate.

We'll ignore the Recon Rgt's, seeing as they combine to form divisions and can be quite handy.

You've two tank regiments in Indochina that can rail up to SW China within a week.
Two tank regiments on Pesacordes and one on Formosa are ready to be sent to China on Dec 7th.
One tank regiment is already loaded on a TF at Samah.

That's six tank regiments ready to be in South-West China by Dec 10th. Roughly two divisions worth.

There are 7 tank regiments in Manchuria, about 4 of which can be bought out on Dec 7th (assuming the inital budget of 500 PP's is spent) and the remaining 3 can be bought out at a rate of about 1 regiment every two days.

On top of that, there are two tank regiments and two armoured car units in Centarl China that can be bought out and shipped to South-West China.

At by the end of December '41, you can have 15 tank regiments and 2 armoured car units deployed in South-Western China, assuming you prioritize PP's towards buying these tank units out.

The impact on the DEI effort shouldn't be noticable. You'd still be keeping the detached Recon Regiments, so you'll still have mobile units that can take weakly held bases quickly. In exchange, you'll be able to have the bulk of Panzerarmee China en-route towards Liuchow/Kweilin by mid December '41 and nearly all of your armour concentrated by January '42.

IJA Paratrooper Units and targets

Units

Yokosuka 1st & 3rd SNLF - Kagi - 24 AV each
1st Raiding Regiment - Kagoshima - 30 AV

Targets
Tuyun - defended by 3 units (30 EXP/Morale) - 96 AV
Kweilin - defended by 1 base force - 28 AV
Kukong - defended by 3 units - 28 AV

Execution

Kweilin and Kuking can be attacked by paratroopers on Dec 7th by the Japanese. With heavy use of bombers from Canton and other bases in South China, there is a good chance of success. This isolates South-West China from the bulk of Chinese troops around Changsha.

Tuyun is a bit more problematic. The 1st Raiding Regiment can be moved to Amoy around Dev 11th/12 by fast transport (plenty of CL/DD heading that way from Japan anyways), so with a bit of effort, you can have all three IJA paratrooper units attacking Tuyun by mid-Dec '41.

One Tuyun falls, the Chinese can't rail troops to set up the roadblocks and the Japanese can fly in troops of their own to keep South-West China isolated.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1728
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 2:44:52 PM   
JocMeister

 

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From: Sweden
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As requested Erik! AAR is up and running now.

(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 1729
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 3:30:43 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 9590
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
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quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

You also can't be 'armor heavy' this early as Japan. Your tank divisions aren't complete in the beginning and you have to plan to make sure those units are in the same places when the other parts arrive through the first several months of 42 so you can buy them out and bring them to China. So the schedule is off for this reason alone. I'm 'getting the timeframe' and it doesn't work.


I like thought experiments.

IJA tank units as of Dec 7th 1941 - NB: this is a hastily prepared list and may not be absolutely accurate.

We'll ignore the Recon Rgt's, seeing as they combine to form divisions and can be quite handy.

You've two tank regiments in Indochina that can rail up to SW China within a week.
Two tank regiments on Pesacordes and one on Formosa are ready to be sent to China on Dec 7th.
One tank regiment is already loaded on a TF at Samah.

That's six tank regiments ready to be in South-West China by Dec 10th. Roughly two divisions worth.

There are 7 tank regiments in Manchuria, about 4 of which can be bought out on Dec 7th (assuming the inital budget of 500 PP's is spent) and the remaining 3 can be bought out at a rate of about 1 regiment every two days.

On top of that, there are two tank regiments and two armoured car units in Centarl China that can be bought out and shipped to South-West China.

At by the end of December '41, you can have 15 tank regiments and 2 armoured car units deployed in South-Western China, assuming you prioritize PP's towards buying these tank units out.

The impact on the DEI effort shouldn't be noticable. You'd still be keeping the detached Recon Regiments, so you'll still have mobile units that can take weakly held bases quickly. In exchange, you'll be able to have the bulk of Panzerarmee China en-route towards Liuchow/Kweilin by mid December '41 and nearly all of your armour concentrated by January '42.




Which really only highlights the dilemma of the Chinese/India gambit. If, as stated, (and of course I am right in this matter ) that with SL in effect then Japan at least has to invade India far enough to cut the air bridge to China, then where will Japanese tanks be needed the most? Send them all to China and you are setting up a disaster in India. As an Allied player I think that the best counter to an Indian invasion it to move every available tank unit to India. There is no better place to fight with Allied tanks than in the open terrain of India. By 8/42 even with the weak Indian tank brigades, the Allies can have tank parity there and by 10/42 as the Indian units start to flesh out with good medium tanks even Japanese armor divisions in India start to become pretty brittle. In my opinion to have a decent chance of taking substantial terrain in India and then holding it long enough to finish the work in China, the Japanese player needs to commit the bulk of his mobile units there. Then what is left over for China? Believe me, I would drool at the opportunities in India if my opponent invaded without a serious tank commitment.

_____________________________

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(in reply to mind_messing)
Post #: 1730
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 4:28:05 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

You also can't be 'armor heavy' this early as Japan. Your tank divisions aren't complete in the beginning and you have to plan to make sure those units are in the same places when the other parts arrive through the first several months of 42 so you can buy them out and bring them to China. So the schedule is off for this reason alone. I'm 'getting the timeframe' and it doesn't work.


I like thought experiments.

IJA tank units as of Dec 7th 1941 - NB: this is a hastily prepared list and may not be absolutely accurate.

We'll ignore the Recon Rgt's, seeing as they combine to form divisions and can be quite handy.

You've two tank regiments in Indochina that can rail up to SW China within a week.
Two tank regiments on Pesacordes and one on Formosa are ready to be sent to China on Dec 7th.
One tank regiment is already loaded on a TF at Samah.

That's six tank regiments ready to be in South-West China by Dec 10th. Roughly two divisions worth.

There are 7 tank regiments in Manchuria, about 4 of which can be bought out on Dec 7th (assuming the inital budget of 500 PP's is spent) and the remaining 3 can be bought out at a rate of about 1 regiment every two days.

On top of that, there are two tank regiments and two armoured car units in Centarl China that can be bought out and shipped to South-West China.

At by the end of December '41, you can have 15 tank regiments and 2 armoured car units deployed in South-Western China, assuming you prioritize PP's towards buying these tank units out.

The impact on the DEI effort shouldn't be noticable. You'd still be keeping the detached Recon Regiments, so you'll still have mobile units that can take weakly held bases quickly. In exchange, you'll be able to have the bulk of Panzerarmee China en-route towards Liuchow/Kweilin by mid December '41 and nearly all of your armour concentrated by January '42.




Which really only highlights the dilemma of the Chinese/India gambit. If, as stated, (and of course I am right in this matter ) that with SL in effect then Japan at least has to invade India far enough to cut the air bridge to China, then where will Japanese tanks be needed the most? Send them all to China and you are setting up a disaster in India. As an Allied player I think that the best counter to an Indian invasion it to move every available tank unit to India. There is no better place to fight with Allied tanks than in the open terrain of India. By 8/42 even with the weak Indian tank brigades, the Allies can have tank parity there and by 10/42 as the Indian units start to flesh out with good medium tanks even Japanese armor divisions in India start to become pretty brittle. In my opinion to have a decent chance of taking substantial terrain in India and then holding it long enough to finish the work in China, the Japanese player needs to commit the bulk of his mobile units there. Then what is left over for China? Believe me, I would drool at the opportunities in India if my opponent invaded without a serious tank commitment.


I think it just highlights that invading India is unnecessary and far too risky. You can't get supply to flow up for a land invasion from Rangoon, which means you need ships. And what does it get you, anyway? Time? You get that simply from the lack of any real Commonwealth OOB expansion. If you could guarantee that you'd capture a stockpile of fuel/supplies somewhere, then that would be worth it... but that's a crapshoot.

Bullwinkle has Ledo and he's flying stuff out of there, but he can't reach anything I care about (...yet...and by the time he'd be able to, he'd be able to take Ledo back anyway). And because I have all of the airbases near Chungking, he can't fly in any supply without losing the planes. I know he's dropping supplies somewhere (ops losses), but it's not Chungking and that's all I care about. You don't need to invade India to cripple or kill China, and the opportunity cost of going to India is a bunch of territory in the Pacific, where it does matter.


Sorry, that's slightly OT/tangential.

< Message edited by Lokasenna -- 1/25/2015 5:28:31 PM >

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 1731
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 4:29:46 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline
I have yet to see an invasion of India that panned out for the JFBs - sure, it buys a little time, but at the end of the day, it doesn't sink carriers & it doesn't prevent the US Navy was exerting massive force in the Pacific....of course, it is different for a PDU off vs. on game, but at the end of the day, the results seem to be exactly the same.

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(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 1732
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 5:03:14 PM   
castor troy


Posts: 14330
Joined: 8/23/2004
From: Austria
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

I have yet to see an invasion of India that panned out for the JFBs - sure, it buys a little time, but at the end of the day, it doesn't sink carriers & it doesn't prevent the US Navy was exerting massive force in the Pacific....of course, it is different for a PDU off vs. on game, but at the end of the day, the results seem to be exactly the same.



all my IJ invasions of India paid off, totally. My last campaign resulted in over 4000 Allied av destroyed in India in mid 42. Try to mount an offensive into Burma as the Allied after this. Total loss were a couple of hundred aircraft at best, no units and the supply needed to do so was by far not as much as I captured, let alone what I could produce afterwards in the Calcutta area, plus the oil from the East. Pity the game ended right after this due to personal reasons of my opponent.

See my last AAR, wouldn't say the invasion wasn't worth it. Just one of many of my India invasions in all the years

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(in reply to paullus99)
Post #: 1733
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 5:38:17 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

As requested Erik! AAR is up and running now.


Nice! I'll be over in a minute!

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(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 1734
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 5:42:25 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy


quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

I have yet to see an invasion of India that panned out for the JFBs - sure, it buys a little time, but at the end of the day, it doesn't sink carriers & it doesn't prevent the US Navy was exerting massive force in the Pacific....of course, it is different for a PDU off vs. on game, but at the end of the day, the results seem to be exactly the same.



all my IJ invasions of India paid off, totally. My last campaign resulted in over 4000 Allied av destroyed in India in mid 42. Try to mount an offensive into Burma as the Allied after this. Total loss were a couple of hundred aircraft at best, no units and the supply needed to do so was by far not as much as I captured, let alone what I could produce afterwards in the Calcutta area, plus the oil from the East. Pity the game ended right after this due to personal reasons of my opponent.

See my last AAR, wouldn't say the invasion wasn't worth it. Just one of many of my India invasions in all the years


I've seen a few like this. It would have happened to me without good advice from the AAR contributors and some knowledge f the past games that have resulted in the IJA running through India and almost getting it all. The radar game is for most in my mind, but Nick was a bit less experienced then than radar. until the end!

Didn't PzB also do well in India? And Cribtop made a very successful NE India invasion in a recent game. Getting a bunch of Allied commenwealth units off the board is a good second objective in India even if the first of securing more resources doesn't pay off as a positive.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to castor troy)
Post #: 1735
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 5:55:38 PM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 8262
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: offline
I think PzB is the only one who has successfully taken all of India.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1736
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 5:57:45 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 9869
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline
Link to Jocke's AAR, please??

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(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 1737
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 6:52:17 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy


quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

I have yet to see an invasion of India that panned out for the JFBs - sure, it buys a little time, but at the end of the day, it doesn't sink carriers & it doesn't prevent the US Navy was exerting massive force in the Pacific....of course, it is different for a PDU off vs. on game, but at the end of the day, the results seem to be exactly the same.



all my IJ invasions of India paid off, totally. My last campaign resulted in over 4000 Allied av destroyed in India in mid 42. Try to mount an offensive into Burma as the Allied after this. Total loss were a couple of hundred aircraft at best, no units and the supply needed to do so was by far not as much as I captured, let alone what I could produce afterwards in the Calcutta area, plus the oil from the East. Pity the game ended right after this due to personal reasons of my opponent.

See my last AAR, wouldn't say the invasion wasn't worth it. Just one of many of my India invasions in all the years


I've seen a few like this. It would have happened to me without good advice from the AAR contributors and some knowledge f the past games that have resulted in the IJA running through India and almost getting it all. The radar game is for most in my mind, but Nick was a bit less experienced then than radar. until the end!

Didn't PzB also do well in India? And Cribtop made a very successful NE India invasion in a recent game. Getting a bunch of Allied commenwealth units off the board is a good second objective in India even if the first of securing more resources doesn't pay off as a positive.


I can get behind that desire, but it depends so much on your opponent's dispositions.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1738
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 7:17:31 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Link to Jocke's AAR, please??


Here it is! The sheep lives!

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3790409&mpage=1&key=�

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 1739
RE: ::Felix, Ferdinand and FRUPAC:: obvert (A) v Greyjo... - 1/25/2015 7:25:43 PM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert


quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy


quote:

ORIGINAL: paullus99

I have yet to see an invasion of India that panned out for the JFBs - sure, it buys a little time, but at the end of the day, it doesn't sink carriers & it doesn't prevent the US Navy was exerting massive force in the Pacific....of course, it is different for a PDU off vs. on game, but at the end of the day, the results seem to be exactly the same.



all my IJ invasions of India paid off, totally. My last campaign resulted in over 4000 Allied av destroyed in India in mid 42. Try to mount an offensive into Burma as the Allied after this. Total loss were a couple of hundred aircraft at best, no units and the supply needed to do so was by far not as much as I captured, let alone what I could produce afterwards in the Calcutta area, plus the oil from the East. Pity the game ended right after this due to personal reasons of my opponent.

See my last AAR, wouldn't say the invasion wasn't worth it. Just one of many of my India invasions in all the years


I've seen a few like this. It would have happened to me without good advice from the AAR contributors and some knowledge f the past games that have resulted in the IJA running through India and almost getting it all. The radar game is for most in my mind, but Nick was a bit less experienced then than radar. until the end!

Didn't PzB also do well in India? And Cribtop made a very successful NE India invasion in a recent game. Getting a bunch of Allied commenwealth units off the board is a good second objective in India even if the first of securing more resources doesn't pay off as a positive.


I can get behind that desire, but it depends so much on your opponent's dispositions.


If the Allies run the chances of getting the industry intact are higher. I haven't done the calculations but it seems the NE area is about like having another Kyoto when you count Calcutta, Jamshedpur, Asanol and Ledo's oil. If you take the southern tip with Madras, Bangalore and Hyderabad too it's a bit more. Should pay for itself and kill some commonwealth troops.


_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 1740
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