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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J)

 
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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 5/29/2015 5:46:31 AM   
JocMeister

 

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PH Losses
______________________________________________________________________________

How long can he keep this us? 24 planes/pilots lost this turn...all irreplaceable KB pilots. I´m going to let my fighters rest for a day now. Morale is in the low 30s for most squadrons. I´ll soon have my fist ace over PH too.




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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 5/29/2015 6:14:34 AM   
witpqs


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The subs he has in the area help to reduce pilot losses somewhat.

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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 5/29/2015 10:15:38 AM   
JocMeister

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

The subs he has in the area help to reduce pilot losses somewhat.


You are not helping morale!

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Post #: 183
RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 5/29/2015 10:39:05 AM   
JocMeister

 

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Just got the replay from Nick.

It is indeed an invasion! Two northern bases were invaded. One fell this turn and the other will next turn...no time for a real update before I leave for the weekend...could have left with a smile on my face but after "dudding" on the Kaga 8 times in my game with Tom I´m convinced I will never damage let alone sink any Japanese CVs using subs...




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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 5/29/2015 10:52:22 AM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Just got the replay from Nick.

It is indeed an invasion! Two northern bases were invaded. One fell this turn and the other will next turn...no time for a real update before I leave for the weekend...could have left with a smile on my face but after "dudding" on the Kaga 8 times in my game with Tom I´m convinced I will never damage let alone sink any Japanese CVs using subs...



Dang!!

Well, at least you know what to fear now. This is early for invasions here, eh?

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Post #: 185
RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 5/29/2015 1:00:31 PM   
BBfanboy


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When I thought about isolation of PH I assumed that some of the smaller islands would be invaded so he could have LBA to interdict your resupply and reinforcement while KB sailed off to deal with Alaska, perhaps with a pause to replenish and repair first. Midway might have the support ships to do that.

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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 5/31/2015 12:51:07 PM   
JocMeister

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

When I thought about isolation of PH I assumed that some of the smaller islands would be invaded so he could have LBA to interdict your resupply and reinforcement while KB sailed off to deal with Alaska, perhaps with a pause to replenish and repair first. Midway might have the support ships to do that.


That is indeed a plausible scenario. I guess I will know when he clears Singers in a couple of turns. Whatever he plans to do will involve those troops. NORPAC sounds most probable at this point. If it was India/OZ KB should have left (or never been at) PH.

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Post #: 187
RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 5/31/2015 1:16:27 PM   
BBfanboy


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My prime reason to suspect NorPac is that he rushed to take Dutch Harbour. No reason to go that far east if the intention is just to take some islands to delay the Allies later on - he must be intending to go further east.

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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 5/31/2015 1:40:48 PM   
ny59giants


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Since I tend to send 2 modern CLs and 4 to 6 DDs to Aleutians from Pearl as soon as KB clears the area, Nick may be reaching forward now and back filling later. The question is the quality and quantity of troops he is sending east.

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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 5/31/2015 3:14:39 PM   
JocMeister

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

My prime reason to suspect NorPac is that he rushed to take Dutch Harbour. No reason to go that far east if the intention is just to take some islands to delay the Allies later on - he must be intending to go further east.


Very clear observation. But it could also be a ruse to lure me to keep reinforcements back at the WC rather then sending them forwards to OZ/India.


quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants
Since I tend to send 2 modern CLs and 4 to 6 DDs to Aleutians from Pearl as soon as KB clears the area, Nick may be reaching forward now and back filling later. The question is the quality and quantity of troops he is sending east.


Indeed. I just hope I can track those IDs from Singers once they leave.

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Post #: 190
RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/1/2015 5:13:14 AM   
JocMeister

 

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December 12th 1942
______________________________________________________________________________

Home sweet home.

------------------------
DEI
------------------------

I get some small jabs in here and there. With the Japanese completely ignoring Luzon I can sortie small TFs from Manila. Sadly this convoy was empty but everything helps.

quote:

Day Time Surface Combat, near Busuanga at 77,80, Range 18,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
xAK Kinryu Maru, Shell hits 17, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Hiyama Maru, Shell hits 17, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Hokutatsu Maru, Shell hits 13, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAK Izumo Maru, Shell hits 12, heavy fires
xAK Kinrei Maru, Shell hits 5, Torpedo hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage
xAKL Tientsin Maru, Shell hits 18, heavy fires, heavy damage
CM Shirataka, Shell hits 7, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk


Allied Ships
DD John D. Ford
DD Peary
DD Pillsbury, Shell hits 1
DD Pope


The Japanese land unopposed at Miri, Singkawang and Kuching. Singapore is now isolated and will fall in the first attack. MKB has disappeared toward Badeldaob. There is a huge SCTF at Manado. I suspect this is CA TF that covered the Jolo landings. Its a shame the PoW TF arn´t in range.

The Kongos are most likely covering the Singkawang landings. There are big holes in the the Japanese cover right now. I´m trying to get more combat ships into the South China Sea. Since there is loads of fuel at Manila I can use full speed runs to get them in there.

------------------------
CENTPAC
------------------------

As predicted the Japanese land in Hawaii.

quote:

Amphibious Assault at Lihue (178,106)

TF 18 troops unloading over beach at Lihue, 178,106

Japanese ground losses:
122 casualties reported
Squads: 8 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 6 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabl


They also land on Niihau. The following forces are identified.

-1st Formosa Inf. Rgt
-Sasebo 1st SNLF
-47th Infantry Rgt

Are these usually used for Luzon?

At Wake the Japanese suffer a small setback.

quote:

Ground combat at Wake Island (136,98)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 1920 troops, 19 guns, 2 vehicles, Assault Value = 63

Defending force 1476 troops, 22 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 18

Japanese adjusted assault: 2

Allied adjusted defense: 10

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 5 (fort level 1)

Combat modifiers
Defender: leaders(-), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), leaders(-)

Japanese ground losses:
817 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 82 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
23 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled



Guam is also invaded. Nick is moving fast right now with a lot of targets secured every turn.

------------------------
SWPAC
------------------------

Hollandia falls to Japanese hands. Not sure why he lands there of all places and not go straight for Rabaul?






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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/1/2015 7:13:50 AM   
JocMeister

 

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DEI
______________________________________________________________________________





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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/1/2015 7:18:21 AM   
JocMeister

 

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New Guinea
______________________________________________________________________________

Not seen the Japanese land here before. My opponents usually go straight for Rabaul. Perhaps Nick is wary of the possible Allied CVs?




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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/1/2015 11:32:53 AM   
JocMeister

 

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December 13th 1942
______________________________________________________________________________

More Hawaiian invasions!

------------------------
PH
------------------------

Troops land at Lahaina. Didn´t expect that so no mines present. Mistake on my part. Sortied a few DDs which didn´t accomplish much. At least it will force him to keep substantial SCTFs in the area for a while longer.

quote:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Lihue at 178,106, Range 9,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CL Nagara, Shell hits 1
DD Yukikaze
DD Tokitsukaze
DD Yamakaze
DD Kawakaze
DD Umikaze, Shell hits 1
DD Suzukaze, Shell hits 1, on fire


Allied Ships
DD Litchfield
DD Ward, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Chew, Shell hits 2, on fire


DD Schely was part of the TF but was sunk by a sub before arriving. KB moves far to the south. No doubt trying to catch some TFs that left PH last turn. Luckily I sent them due East at full speed and they cleared the area.

------------------------
DEI
------------------------

My marauding days out of Manila comes to a almost full stop!

quote:

Night Time Surface Combat, near Taytay at 74,81, Range 12,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
xAKL Nichizui Maru, Shell hits 2
xAKL Nissen Maru #2, Shell hits 5, on fire, heavy damage
xAKL Saiko Maru, Shell hits 6, heavy fires
xAKL Akita Maru


Allied Ships
DD John D. Ford
DD Peary
DD Pillsbury
DD Pope


But then...

quote:

Day Time Surface Combat, near Puerto Princesa at 74,85, Range 20,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CA Myoko, Shell hits 1
DD Shinonome
DD Shirakumo, Shell hits 1
DD Sazanami
DD Ushio


Allied Ships
DD John D. Ford, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
DD Peary, Shell hits 3
DD Pillsbury, Shell hits 14, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Pope, Shell hits 17, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk


The Jolly Roger will fly from Manila shortly again!

At least we get some revenge by later sinking something important to the Japs. A DD i sunk by a dutch sub at Singkawang.

quote:

ASW attack near Singkawang at 56,88

Japanese Ships
DD Maikaze, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD Arashi
DD Hagikaze


Allied Ships
SS O16


Besides that not much to report. I´m mostly waiting to see what happens when Singers fall.





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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/1/2015 12:17:03 PM   
Lowpe


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Hollandia -- there is a named task force invasion fleet for this base, can't remember if it is already moving to that location or if it starts loaded in port with no target. Could simply be a missed task force is the point I am making.

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 6/1/2015 1:17:22 PM >

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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/1/2015 4:42:41 PM   
JocMeister

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Hollandia -- there is a named task force invasion fleet for this base, can't remember if it is already moving to that location or if it starts loaded in port with no target. Could simply be a missed task force is the point I am making.


Ah, that might explain it. Thanks!

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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/1/2015 5:04:22 PM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Hollandia -- there is a named task force invasion fleet for this base, can't remember if it is already moving to that location or if it starts loaded in port with no target. Could simply be a missed task force is the point I am making.


Ah, that might explain it. Thanks!


There sure is.



Also, you're right - those units in Hawaii start the game slated for Luzon.

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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/1/2015 6:16:01 PM   
JocMeister

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna
There sure is.
Also, you're right - those units in Hawaii start the game slated for Luzon.


So basically he skipped Luzon and went to Hawaii instead. I wonder if that is good or bad for me...if I can sneak some supplies into Luzon it would definitively be bad for him...

Hmmm.

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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/1/2015 7:05:42 PM   
JocMeister

 

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December 14th 1942
______________________________________________________________________________

Not the best of turns.

------------------------
PH
------------------------

Forgetting about the retreat routine not being optimal I sent in a couple of small DD TFs from PH to harass Nicks shipping around Hawaii. Worked wonders...until I started seeing "retreating after combat" a million times. Not only did my TFs fail to accomplish anything but I also lost 3 DDs to naval combat and one that ended up outside PH to air strikes from the KB.

Won´t be doing that again.

KB lingers in the same position SW of PH...why? Does he suspect Allied CVs down there? Is he moving for Christmas?

------------------------
DEI
------------------------

Not much to report. I put up a CAP over Manila hoping to catch some bomber there. But today the Sweeps went in first and the result wasn´t pretty. 14 P40s lost for only 4 Zeros. We did manage to get in among the Betties and shoot down another 4 though. So not a complete waste.

Elsewhere things are quiet.










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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/1/2015 7:18:30 PM   
JocMeister

 

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Allied Planning
______________________________________________________________________________

I have something pretty bold planned from day 1 which is still have hopes to carry out. But first I need to know where the 6 or so IDs from Singers will go. I don´t want to do something bold and then have it crushed by 6 Japanese IDs in a months time.

I havn´t seen the Imperial Guards yet. Probably slogging up the road to Burma as usual.

I´ve also decided to leave PH to its fate. No reinforcements will be sent here. At least not for a while. Allied reinforcements are incredible scarce at this point. In fact I have only 4 RGTs and a lone Battalion that are unrestricted. The harsh reality is that there are more important places on the map then PH. PH itself won´t be the difference between AV or not and its a very long way from the HI. Come 43 (if I survive that long) it will be impossible for the Japanese to defend without exposing other more important areas. If he starts moving some of those divisions at Singers towards the PH I´ll reassess the situation.

I can´t delay sending out what small forces I have right now. They have to leave and will do so next turn. I also seem to have forgotten how depressing the first year is as the allies!

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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/1/2015 7:59:11 PM   
Sangeli


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
December 14th 1942

I just started reading this AAR but it seems that every date you have given is a year ahead of the actual date! Unless you are playing a mod where Dec 7th 1942 is the day that will live in infamy...

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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/1/2015 9:13:34 PM   
witpqs


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Part of his master deception plan!

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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/2/2015 1:09:45 AM   
BBfanboy


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The position of KB could also be cover for another invasion convoy headed to the Big Island of Hawaii. If he goes for that one as well as the others he has invaded, I would finally be convinced that PH is the main target here rather than a diversionary attack.

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Post #: 203
RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/2/2015 3:31:25 AM   
JocMeister

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Sangeli


quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister
December 14th 1942

I just started reading this AAR but it seems that every date you have given is a year ahead of the actual date! Unless you are playing a mod where Dec 7th 1942 is the day that will live in infamy...


As Witpqs says its all part of the plan. I wish I could tell you more but its classified...


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Post #: 204
RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/2/2015 3:33:53 AM   
JocMeister

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

The position of KB could also be cover for another invasion convoy headed to the Big Island of Hawaii. If he goes for that one as well as the others he has invaded, I would finally be convinced that PH is the main target here rather than a diversionary attack.


I would be VERY surprised if he doesn´t land there. Even if its just a diversion or isolation attempt. Since he doesn´t need to wait for prep he can just pick something up that is already in the area and land there.

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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/2/2015 3:59:34 AM   
JocMeister

 

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Running a nasty cold again and couldn´t sleep. So I spent the night reading CRs AAR against PzH + JIIIs game vs Michael. An interesting read. Looking at my situation I´ve come to the conclusion that short of an "all in" allied effort the Japanese can secure PH. The landing will probably cost them dearly but its doable.

I´m going to do a few things in the coming turns. First of all I´m going to start planning for a Japanese occupation of PH. Strategically the only impact of this is that the WC suddenly becomes very vulnerable to raiding. This can be dealt with to some extent. Instead of using SF and San Diego for CENTPAC/SOPAC/OZ stuff I´ll have to use EC. Not really a problem but it will add travel time. I´ll start evacuating the WC in the coming month.

It also makes a lot of factories on the WC vulnerable to CV strikes. This can also be dealt with to an extent. I´ll focus whatever AA and planes at likely targets. Not much I can do more then that. I can´t really carry on trying to defend the PH air space. I´m losing 5-10 planes per day. My replacement rate is 35/month. So instead of depleting the squadrons I´ll withdraw them and let them reform in 60 days at SF.

I´m still pretty firm in my belief that the Allies shouldn´t fight to the death for PH at this time. Its a battle I can´t win at this stage. With LBA, KB and most of the IJN at Hawaii the allies simply doesn´t have the tools for it. Most importantly losing PH won´t decide the war. It will cost me something like 5-6k of VPs including the BBs (minus his losses in the landing and flak losses over time). Of those 6k VPs only half is permanent.

Anyone have a different opinion?

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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/2/2015 10:59:39 AM   
BBfanboy


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I agree with abandoning PH only because he has come so early that the reinforcements needed to hold or really make him bleed just are not there. Would try to put a sub base in range of PH though. An AS anywhere will do. Not sure if his Nav Search would pick up an AS parked at French Frigate Shoal.

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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/2/2015 11:18:41 AM   
HansBolter


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Adak is the best sub base on the map and will easily allow operations near Pearl. It also allows even S-Boats to operate in the Kuriles.

Accepting the loss of Pearl makes securing the northern flank doubly important as it provides a much needed sub base in good range of good targets and a pipeline through which you can threaten both his supply lines to Pearl and serve as a future springboard to the HI.

With the loss of the center you need to hold on to the right flank or you risk limiting your future operations to a unidirectional thrust from the south.

I would go all in to hold the northern flank.

Oh, and once sufficient flak and fighter cover builds up over the WC factories, I would welcome the extravagant expenditure of fuel required in raiding the WC.

Play "Russians in the Pacific"....lure him in deeper and deeper. Rope-a-Dope should be the order of the day for the next 18 months.

Sooner, rather than later you are going to need to evac the fleet from Pearl. Will be very, very ugly......worse than the thundering hordes evacing manila, but it MUST be done.

Scatter to the four winds with the operational mantra that he can't fly enough sorties to sink everything and salvage what you can.



< Message edited by HansBolter -- 6/2/2015 12:24:38 PM >


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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/2/2015 11:49:56 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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I agree with withdrawing all or most of the air power. I'd leave the P-40s; in the long run they don't matter and they can cause some losses as well as force more KB aircraft to fly for damage and fatigue. I'd pull the patrol planes and Bolos, etc.

On ships I disagree with a mass sortie. Whatever he has left that can shoot should stay. If they run the KB plinks them for no gain. If they stay in PH, never leaving the hex, they force landings to be escorted by at least cruisers, and that exposes them to the CD, which is impressive. Repairs are at least Truk-distant. That's useful if only in time gained, and some will sink. The ships at Pearl are by definition pre-war; the USN in the long run won't miss them. Besides, as above, they're toast if they run.

Adak is a nice idea, but without investment of LCUs he doesn't have to spare it can't hold in the first six months. Hauling submarine fuel there is also risky. Subs will need to operate from the WC unless something south can be established, maybe out of the Canal. There are many islands south of Christmas that would be less risky than Adak and far more supply-able. For what good Mk 10 fish do, which is not much.

PH's best hope is forts. Every level will cost him in troops, but especially precious supply that must be hauled at great fuel expense and xAK capacity he can't use to begin feeding his economy. Spending PPs to buy great leaders for PH is not a bad move either.

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RE: Tale of the Sheep! - JocMeister (A) vs. Olorin (J) - 6/2/2015 12:19:46 PM   
JocMeister

 

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Good thoughts guys. I´ll comment tonight + update. Currently more or less bedridden with this stupid cold.

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