IdahoNYer
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Joined: 9/6/2009
From: NYer living in Boise, ID
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Aug 42 Summary
Like Jul, August was a mixed month. On the positive side, Vaitapu occupied in the Ellice Islands, Ndeni AF is operational and growing, Exmouth reinforced and expanding (albeit slowly), Allied air continues to manage better than a 1-1 loss ratio against the latest enemy planes, and most importantly the fleet, especially the CV force, remains largely intact. On the negative side, I was caught flat footed when the IJN showed up in the Aleutians in force and savaged the US Fleet there, postponing the invasion of Attu yet again. Overall, I’m still satisfied with the results. I think the initiative has truly shifted to the Allied Cause. IJN forays are more raids, not tied to sustained offensive operations, but to delay Allied buildups. Those raiding forays are sill powerful, and the best defense is still withdrawal where possible, but once the raiding force retires, Allied offensive buildup was able to continue. As we move into September, buildup remains the focus for most theaters for the next two months as most of the Allied fleet will undergo refit in the next 60 days. Attu is still a target - if I can manage to get in without the KB coming to visit. The focus in the next 30 plus days will rely on airpower - begin starting to challenge in the air with a combination of sweeps and heavy bombers, primarily around Australia and Burma. I expect L_S_T to continue with an “active defense” - sortie the fleet to disrupt Allied thrusts. That means naval bombardments, CV raids and offensive fighter sweeps. Naval loss ratio for the month wasn’t as bad as I once feared despite the debacle known as the Aleutian Campaign; IJN reported losses for the month were a CA, 4CL, 4DD and 8SS as compared to the Allies losing a CA, 2CL, CLAA, 3DD and 3 PTs. Air losses were decidedly in the Allies favor, 449 for Jpn to 353 Allied, and with new fighters such as the P-40K and P-38F becoming operational next month, I hope to expand this gap in the coming months.
Screenshot shows disposition - didn’t have time to post specifics by Theater. Will try and do that each quarter instead of monthly.
INTEL: I’m convinced the IJN is done with major amphibious operations. I was wrong about Carnarvon, and realized that when the ships used at Port Hedland were then committed in the Indian Ocean. Figure L_S_T will attempt to preserve his current perimeter - which I’m betting includes bases of Akyab, Port Hedland, Moresby, Tulagi, Tarawa-Makin area, and apparently Attu. The greatest threat remains CV raids and BB bombardments - both of which get riskier as Allied airpower and subs become more numerous.
SUBWAR: Although disappointed at missed opportunities in August - at least five subs launched torps at CVs without success, subs did hit a BB and CA - and the “threat” of sub attack most likely has, and will, influence IJN operations. Still not having much success against the merchant marine however. On the positive side, Allied ASW platforms, both sea and air, are becoming more available and crews becoming more proficient - and IJN sub losses are on the rise.
West Coast/USA/Rear Areas: Focus is on refitting the fleet over the next two months. This will be done as quickly as possible - not staging ships into refit as I did during the 6/42 refit. Every ship that can reach a refit yard as soon as possible will be taken out of service, so ships will start heading to ports in Sep for their 10/42 refit. Most ships due refit in 9/42 are already in port to be taken out of service immediately. Pilot pools are very healthy with the exception of US Army bomber pilots, and that will be short for a few more months. Planes are still in short supply, but have been able to expand a few Marine fighter squadrons to 36 planes. Goal in Sep will be to retire the Marines’ Buffalo and the Army’s P-36 from frontline squadrons.
NOPAC. L_S_T has done an excellent job of keeping me off balance in the Aleutians. I figured that after the BB drubbing last month, the worst was over. What I certainly didn’t expect was the KB in Aleutian waters! All things considered, I got off lightly losing a few cruisers and DDs - not hitting Dutch Harbor saved the transports and the BBs in port there. Still, the invasion of Attu is again postponed, only to be restarted, then delayed yet again at the end of August when the KB left port headed toward the Aleutians. Will look to land on Attu again in Sep, but time is against me now with winter weather approaching. That said, its not worth risking APs and additional BBs to push this landing if the KB is about.
CENPAC. With Attu delayed, so is Baker Island. Not essential, but a tad frustrating. I can wait.
SOPAC. So far, so good in SOPAC. Actually on track, building up the base at Ndeni. That’s as far as the advance will go until the fleet returns from refit. Ellice Islands will be mopped up as well. All to set conditions for further offensive operations come 11/42. Bombing operations against Tulagi should commence in September as heavies become available - contingent to IJA offensive action against Tennant Creek in Australia.
SWPAC. September will kick off with P-38Fs sweeping Moresby as the first step in gaining air superiority in theater. This “should” start an Allied buildup to land at Horn Island, slated for Oct. This operation is geared to be executed only supported by LBA. Horn Island will be the first step in the long road to throw the Japanese out of Australia, as well as opening up southern New Guinea for future operations.
WAUS. Surprisingly, its been very quiet on the Carnavon-Exmouth front. No IJN activity other than subs - so my four CVs and a BC surface TF has been loitering for about a month without a target. On the positive side, Exmouth is expanding, and efforts will shift from port to AF construction shortly. On the negative side, the CVs could have been better used elsewhere. The naval TF(s) will disperse for refit shortly in any case. Focus there will remain developing Exmouth into a base to threaten Port Hedland. WAUS’s other front, Tennant Creek will focus on halting or destroying any IJA attempt to seize the base. I’m confident I have the forces to accomplish this task. Once the ground threat is removed, the air (especially the heavy bombers) will shift to supporting SWPAC and SOPAC for the remainder of ’42.
Burma/India. As expected, Akyab has stalemated. Not as expected, the IJN showed up in force in August to provide bombardment capability from Chittagong to Akyab. Fine - ships in the Indian Ocean are not in SWPAC or SOPAC. I’m good with that. Subs and eventually airpower will take care of the naval threat in the IO as time progresses. What surprised me is that Allied airpower has actually held its own against a reinforced IJA air - equipped with the Tojo no less. With September, the P-40K becomes available, as well as an influx of air reinforcements shipping to India from the US. Goal in September is to begin the air offensive and gain air superiority across the India-Burma frontier, setting conditions for ground offensive. The western gateway into China, Paoshan, still holds, although the IJA still threatens the position.
China. Supply, or lack there of, continues to be the #1 concern in the China Theater. The IJA drive toward Chungking from the NE is slow, but unrelenting. The SE front and southern fronts seemed to have stabilized, but lack of supply is still a major concern, although the IJA thrust from the SW was actually blunted. Will continue to attempt to hold the current perimeter as long as possible.
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< Message edited by IdahoNYer -- 10/14/2015 7:11:03 PM >
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