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RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A)

 
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RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/22/2015 1:25:14 AM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline
Jan. 9/42:

Good news, bad news at Sydney.

The second deliberate assault against Sydney went...ok. Odds were 1:2 this time, but considering KB's airstrike against the defenders was grounded due to weather, it could have been worse. I think I get 1:1 odds had the defenders been disrupted from bombing. The bad news is, I definitely have to rest tomorrow with disruption shooting up into high 20's to mid 30's. At least KB saved a day of sorties. AAR follows:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Sydney (90,167)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 52452 troops, 457 guns, 134 vehicles, Assault Value = 1559

Defending force 28355 troops, 412 guns, 334 vehicles, Assault Value = 424

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 0

Japanese adjusted assault: 801

Allied adjusted defense: 937

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1865 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 138 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 15 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 15 disabled

Allied ground losses:
1335 casualties reported
Squads: 58 destroyed, 80 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 54 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 17 disabled
Guns lost 39 (5 destroyed, 34 disabled)
Vehicles lost 16 (4 destroyed, 12 disabled)

Assaulting units:
20th Infantry Regiment
16th Infantry Regiment
4th Division
21st Division
2nd Engineer Regiment
24th Infantry Regiment
33rd Division
16th Engineer Regiment
2nd Recon Regiment
7th Tank Regiment
16th Army
148th Infantry Rgt /2
2nd Field Artillery Regiment
56th Engineer Regiment
56th Field Artillery Regiment
113th Infantry Rgt /2

Defending units:
9th Australian Brigade
28th Australian Brigade
14th Australian Brigade
1st LH MG Regiment
5th Australian Brigade
8th Australian Brigade
6th Australian Brigade
6th LH Motor Regiment
Sydney Fortress
21st Fld RAA Regiment
2/4th Ind Coy
Sydney RAN Base Force
New Guinea Force
1st RAA Med Arty Regiment
RAAF Command
Sydney OTU Base Force
1st Australian Army
16th Fld RAA Regiment
4th Aus Lt AA Regiment

More good news, the Australian's did not counterattack at Bathurst. I gained another day for Sydney. I airlifted in elements of IJA 113th Infantry Rgt. and airlifted out elements of 1st Raiding. This gives me another air assault to delay the Australian advance, I hope.

There were no Allied air attacks in Australia today either. My fighters got some much needed rest. Pilot fatigue is high across the board.

I tried a two CL bombardment of Sydney. One CL hit a mine, but won't sink. Two Allied PT Boats were sunk. AAR follows:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Sydney at 90,167 - Coastal Guns Fire Back!

16 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Japanese Ships
CL Abukuma
CL Kinu

CL Abukuma firing at 1st RAA Med Arty Regiment
E7K2 Alf acting as spotter for CL Kinu
Sydney Fortress firing at CL Kinu
CL Kinu firing at Sydney Fortress

A large relief TF is leaving Rabaul for Australia. Troops, supply and more importantly fuel are on the way! I am heavily escorting with light carriers and strong surface assets including four battleships.

Malaya:

The Japanese forces in Malaya will cross the causeway tomorrow and shock attack into Singapore. I am using two divisions initially to allow follow up troops to cross over without having to shock. This way half my force is 100% in case the initial shock attack goes badly. It's worked for me before, so as long as the first shock attack is still treated as a river crossing I should be fine after meeting the 1/3 rule.

DEI:

Lots of Allied SCTF movement. There could be some naval action tomorrow.

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 12/22/2015 2:27:46 AM >


_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to FeurerKrieg)
Post #: 361
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/22/2015 1:52:20 AM   
Mike McCreery


Posts: 4232
Joined: 6/29/2013
Status: offline
You are doing a very good job in Australia to have isolated so small a group in Sydney and you have a very good chance of winning there.

We learn more from our losses than our victories. I have heard a lot of good advice about D/L levels and that may be the reason for such poor attacks with my game with NJP.

Going to have to try to learn a thing or two here ;]

_____________________________


(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 362
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/22/2015 2:15:49 AM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Ground combat at Sydney (90,167)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 52452 troops, 457 guns, 134 vehicles, Assault Value = 1559

Defending force 28355 troops, 412 guns, 334 vehicles, Assault Value = 424

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 0

Japanese adjusted assault: 801

Allied adjusted defense: 937

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1865 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 138 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 15 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 15 disabled

Allied ground losses:
1335 casualties reported
Squads: 58 destroyed, 80 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 54 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 17 disabled
Guns lost 39 (5 destroyed, 34 disabled)
Vehicles lost 16 (4 destroyed, 12 disabled)


This is looking good. His AV (unadj/adj) went from 569/1085 to 424/937. Very much in line with my expectations on the unadj, he got a good roll on the adj, and the forts are now 0.
Your AV went from 1725/1478 to 1559/801. You got a bad roll somewhere.

He just lost another 62 AV permanently and another 97 on top of that disabled. Even with two days given the low morale and fatigue, he won't recover much
Expect him to be somewhere near unadj~300 and adj shouldn't be higher than 700, more likely closer to 550.
Your unadj AV should easily be 1450 min. Question is, can you get a roll above 1100? I think you might need to shock next attack to get the odds ... let's see what others think. How is your blocking unit holding up?


_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 363
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/22/2015 2:20:00 AM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

More good news, the Australian's did not counterattack at Bathurst. I gained another day for Sydney. I airlifted in elements of IJA 113th Infantry Rgt. and airlifted out elements of 1st Raiding. This gives me another air assault to delay the Australian advance, I hope.


Given this tidbit, I'd hold off on the shock attack. If you can air drop another hex, that buys you at least two more days, more likely 3. So, rest, deliberate, shock .... dicey, but you definitely have a good chance here ...

_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 364
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/22/2015 3:34:39 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo


quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Ground combat at Sydney (90,167)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 52452 troops, 457 guns, 134 vehicles, Assault Value = 1559

Defending force 28355 troops, 412 guns, 334 vehicles, Assault Value = 424

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 0

Japanese adjusted assault: 801

Allied adjusted defense: 937

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1865 casualties reported
Squads: 5 destroyed, 138 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 15 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 15 disabled

Allied ground losses:
1335 casualties reported
Squads: 58 destroyed, 80 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 54 disabled
Engineers: 4 destroyed, 17 disabled
Guns lost 39 (5 destroyed, 34 disabled)
Vehicles lost 16 (4 destroyed, 12 disabled)


This is looking good. His AV (unadj/adj) went from 569/1085 to 424/937. Very much in line with my expectations on the unadj, he got a good roll on the adj, and the forts are now 0.
Your AV went from 1725/1478 to 1559/801. You got a bad roll somewhere.

He just lost another 62 AV permanently and another 97 on top of that disabled. Even with two days given the low morale and fatigue, he won't recover much
Expect him to be somewhere near unadj~300 and adj shouldn't be higher than 700, more likely closer to 550.
Your unadj AV should easily be 1450 min. Question is, can you get a roll above 1100? I think you might need to shock next attack to get the odds ... let's see what others think. How is your blocking unit holding up?



I agree. It's possible that the "bad roll somewhere" is from the fatigue from yesterday. But still, you got forts to 0. Rest up a few days and hit him again. You might be golden.

(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 365
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/22/2015 3:42:49 AM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline
Yeah, but does he have a few? Once his blocking force is gone, several new ID's can rail in .... I'm not sure he has more than 3 days ...

_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 366
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/22/2015 4:49:16 AM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Yeah, but does he have a few? Once his blocking force is gone, several new ID's can rail in .... I'm not sure he has more than 3 days ...


My blocking force is 18 AV.

I will continue to fly in elements of 113th Infantry Rgt.

My three full divisions at Sydney have the following stats.

21st - AV 348 Disruption 38 Fatigue 34 Disabled infantry squads 24

33rd - AV 332 Disruption 26 Fatigue 23 Disabled infantry squads 34

4th - AV 387 Disruption 33 Fatigue 26 Disabled infantry squads 19

I will split these three divisions into their A/B/C components to try and recover as much disruption as possible and to take in replacements.

Here's the timeline as I see it.

Jan. 10th: Blocking force is either destroyed, or forced to retreat. If it retreats, that will buy me another day. I rest at Sydney.
KB hammers Bathurst to provide as much support as possible.

Jan. 11th: I drop the remaining squads of 1st Raiding on Bathurst again. This could either halt strategic movement, or knock a number of Australian units into combat mode, or get wiped out and not prevent Allied units from railing into Sydney. If it works, I gain another day to rest at Sydney, but at the risk of not attacking Sydney before it can be reinforced.
Depending on disruption recovery, I either shock attack at Sydney and use KB in full support, or bomb Bathurst again and wait to attack on the 12th. However, this won't knock any other Allied units out of strategic mode that aren't currently at Bathurst and they could reach Sydney.

Jan. 12th: If I don't attack on the 11th, I must commit an all out shock attack against Sydney against the original defenders plus an unknown amount of reinforcing AV in strategic mode. If it fails...yet to be determined.

I should add. There are three enemy LCU's currently contesting Bathurst, there are three more at Katoomba. There is a movement tick indicated towards Bathurst which means at least one, possibly all of them, is in move mode. If they take the base on the 10th, depending on the delay it's possible not all of them can be in strategic mode on the 11th. I can hope one or more units need at least two days to get into strategic mode. So it is possible only a fraction of AV can reach Sydney on the 12th.



< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 12/22/2015 5:56:23 AM >


_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 367
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/22/2015 3:15:30 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
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IME, splitting into 1/3's actually doesn't help disruption much. I think it might actually hurt it - at least it does for me. I notice when I recombine into the full division, whichever fragment I was on (typically the /A, so the one with the real CO) had lower disruption than the recombined whole ends up having. I think this is because the fragmented unit COs tend to be worse than my handpicked division CO.

It definitely speeds up recovery of disabled squads, though.

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 368
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/22/2015 4:17:11 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

IME, splitting into 1/3's actually doesn't help disruption much. I think it might actually hurt it - at least it does for me. I notice when I recombine into the full division, whichever fragment I was on (typically the /A, so the one with the real CO) had lower disruption than the recombined whole ends up having. I think this is because the fragmented unit COs tend to be worse than my handpicked division CO.

It definitely speeds up recovery of disabled squads, though.


I checked my leaders before finalizing the turn. You are right, the leader skill set decreased each component. I reformed the three divisions. I don't have that many disabled squads to warrant their recovery a priority over reducing disruption.



_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to Lokasenna)
Post #: 369
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/22/2015 4:28:40 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline
The next turn is away.

KB is ordered to bomb the defenders at Sydney rather than support Bathurst. I must concentrate on Sydney. I hope to have an armoured regiment arrive at Sydney in time to reinforce the all out attack.

I expect to see heavy Allied air attacks over Bathurst. Will I get wiped out, or retreat? A retreat buys me a few more days at Sydney to recover and attack. I believe no matter what happens, the next assault must be all in.

The Singapore attack begins today, and hopefully the first wave isn't trashed.

A big turn.

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 12/22/2015 5:29:16 PM >


_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 370
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/23/2015 12:42:02 AM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

The next turn is away.

KB is ordered to bomb the defenders at Sydney ...


Totally agree. Bathurst at most can get you a day, but not likely. Sydney is the key. Are you resting troops at Sydney today or attacking?



_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 371
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/23/2015 10:11:55 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Are you resting troops at Sydney today or attacking?


Resting.


_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 372
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/23/2015 11:16:43 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline
Jan. 10/42:

A great day for Japan, but some concerns on the fragility of my forces at times.

Australia:

I'll start off at Bathurst and Sydney.

As expected, the Australians launch a counterattack at Bathurst with ground forces, but do not support the operation with air support. I don't know if this was due to weather, or the confidence level was high to brush aside the weak Japanese defence. The base was lost to the enemy, but both fragments of 1st Raiding and IJA 133th Infantry Rgt. retreat, just as I hoped they would, along the road towards Port Kembla. The rail line to Sydney remains blocked! Had Francois pounded them from the air prior to the attack, I think they get destroyed. Losing almost 40 Allied bombers the other day gave reason for pause. I hope that continues. AAR follows:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Bathurst (89,166)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 2557 troops, 12 guns, 52 vehicles, Assault Value = 221

Defending force 719 troops, 16 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 19

Allied adjusted assault: 61

Japanese adjusted defense: 15

Allied assault odds: 4 to 1 (fort level 0)

Allied forces CAPTURE Bathurst !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
323 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 6 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 9 (3 destroyed, 6 disabled)
Units retreated 2

Allied ground losses:
10 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
10th Australian Brigade
26th LH MG Regiment
8th Cav Recce Regiment
4th LH Cav Regiment
13th LH Cav Regiment

Defending units:
1st Raiding Regiment
113th Infantry Rgt /1

KB flies today and hits the defenders at Sydney to try and keep disruption up. Most of the Australian combat LCU's are being targeted, particularly the infantry brigades. AAR follows:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Sydney , at 90,167

Weather in hex: Severe storms

Raid detected at 38 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 14 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 35
B5N2 Kate x 122
D3A1 Val x 115

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 1 damaged
D3A1 Val: 17 damaged
D3A1 Val: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied ground losses:
117 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 9 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Airbase hits 1
Runway hits 6

There has been no attempt to bomb Japanese forces at Sydney, but Allied bombers continue to pay attention to Goulburn. The Allied focus on Goulburn is good news and continues to draw attention away from the main fight at Sydney. I had hoped my units on the flanks would draw some heat off my troops at Sydney, and they are doing just that. AAR follows:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 9th Infantry Regiment, at 88,168 (Goulburn)

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 16 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 5

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 1 damaged

Japanese ground losses:
13 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

So, I figure I have bought myself at least two more days at Sydney. Even more if what I have planned next works. I will move the remnants of 1st Raiding and IJA 113 Infantry Rgt. to Sydney in an effort to open the hex side and allow a unit at Sydney to move west, and permanently block any further attempt at relieving Sydney. If I can block the road with a regiment and some armour, Sydney is doomed.

Malaya:

Singapore goes ok, but I missed delaying two infantry regiments from participating in the initial shock attack and one got completely trashed. I'm across with 902 AV, and have another 977 coming across as reinforcements within 4-5 days, including the elite IJA 5th Division. I didn't reduce forts during the initial crossing which is disappointing, but then I kept the individual engineer regiments out of the first wave to avoid any of them getting wiped out. AAR follows:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 38619 troops, 363 guns, 164 vehicles, Assault Value = 1157

Defending force 39093 troops, 431 guns, 233 vehicles, Assault Value = 564

Japanese adjusted assault: 1035

Allied adjusted defense: 1145

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 3)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), disruption(-)

Japanese ground losses:
4123 casualties reported
Squads: 170 destroyed, 130 disabled
Non Combat: 9 destroyed, 79 disabled
Engineers: 10 destroyed, 57 disabled
Guns lost 40 (20 destroyed, 20 disabled)
Vehicles lost 12 (2 destroyed, 10 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1723 casualties reported
Squads: 36 destroyed, 88 disabled
Non Combat: 17 destroyed, 40 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Guns lost 32 (7 destroyed, 25 disabled)

Assaulting units:
143rd Infantry Regiment
23rd Ind Engineer Regiment
15th Ind Engineer Regiment
Imperial Guards Division
4th Ind Engineer Regiment
18th Division
124th Infantry Regiment
18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
21st Medium Field Artillery Battalion

Defending units:
1st Malay Battalion
27th Australian Brigade
2nd Gordons Battalion
2nd Malay Battalion
2/17 Dogra Battalion
8th Indian Brigade
22nd Australian Brigade
1st Manchester Battalion
2nd Loyal Battalion
22nd Indian Brigade
12th Indian Brigade
AHQ Far East
Singapore Base Force
Singapore Fortress
1st Indian Heavy AA Regiment
24th NZ Pioneer Coy
Malayan Air Wing
1st HK&S Heavy AA Regiment
22nd Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
112th RAF Adv Base Force
113th RAF Adv Base Force
109th RN Base Force
111th RAF Adv Base Force
III Indian Corps
Malaya Army
2nd HK&S Heavy AA Regiment
5th Field Regiment

DEI:

I mentioned there was a possibility of some naval action and there was. No free pass to the Allies this time, as their luck runs out and they run into serious opposition. Sure, old cruisers and destroyers, but I don't care, they are sunk and no longer a threat. I hope this serves notice. I will say though, CL Java caused most of the damage to my ships, she put up a good fight. AAR's follow:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Gorontalo at 71,96, Range 23,000 Yards

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
SOC-1 Seagull: 1 destroyed

Japanese Ships
BB Kongo, Shell hits 1
CA Takao, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Asashio, Shell hits 1
DD Akatsuki
DD Hibiki, Shell hits 1, on fire
DD Isonami, heavy damage
DD Murakumo
DD Uranami, Shell hits 1, on fire

Allied Ships
CL Java, Shell hits 6, on fire
CL Marblehead, Shell hits 6, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DD Alden, Shell hits 9, heavy fires, heavy damage
DD Barker, Shell hits 4, heavy fires
DD Bulmer, Shell hits 25, and is sunk

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Day Time Surface Combat, near Donggala at 70,96, Range 24,000 Yards

Allied aircraft
no flights

Allied aircraft losses
C.XI-W: 1 destroyed

Japanese Ships
CA Mogami
CA Mikuma
CA Suzuya
CA Kumano, Shell hits 1
DD Maikaze
DD Nowaki
DD Arashi
DD Hagikaze
DD Murasame
DD Harusame
DD Yudachi

Allied Ships
CL Java, Shell hits 22, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DD Alden, Shell hits 18, and is sunk
DD Barker, Shell hits 9, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

China:

37 B-17's attack Japanese forces at Pingsiang. I'm concerned about the numbers here, but would rather see them in China than Australia. I'll deal with them when I can, but it's clear Allied air power in China is a threat and Francois is committed to deploying substantial air strength in the theatre.

Thoughts:

Japanese divisions at Sydney recovered some disruption and fatigue, but little AV with only 8 AV recovered between the three. Unfortunately, it seems the smaller units recovered disruption the least and levels are still much too high for my liking. Here's the current status of the big three:

21st - AV 349 Dis 13 Fat 26 Previously AV 348 Dis 38 Fat 34

33rd - AV 338 Dis 7 Fat 17 Previously AV 332 Dis 26 Fat 23

4th - AV 388 Dis 8 Fat 20 Previously AV 387 Dis 33 Fat 26

I may rest the ground forces another day and pound the relief column with KB.

I have to be very careful still of an all out air attack against either KB, or my ground forces, or airbase at Port Kembla. However, I now have 72 fighters on hand in addition to KB. There were some Allied cruisers spotted near Rockhampton so there is a threat developing. I need Sydney to fall soon to restore my freedom of action so KB can do what it does best, which is sink enemy ships.

I'm cautiously optimistic that I can put a stronger blocking force in position providing I open that crucial hex side. It's still going to be a nail biter, but so far so good at Sydney. I just need the rolls to come through for me on the next attack. I think I can definitely rest another day before I attack again. The question is whether to launch another deliberate assault, or go shock.

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 12/24/2015 12:23:10 AM >


_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 373
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/24/2015 1:37:00 AM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
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Your disruption is single digit essentially ... I'd attack. his should be much worse as lower morale recovers slower. Risky call though ... I'll let others comment.

< Message edited by PaxMondo -- 12/24/2015 2:38:12 AM >


_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 374
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/24/2015 2:19:47 AM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Your disruption is single digit essentially ... I'd attack. his should be much worse as lower morale recovers slower. Risky call though ... I'll let others comment.


The 21st Division makes me hesitant with those numbers. I think you can wait one more day. Bomb some more. How are your supplies?


As for the stuff at Bathurst... those Light Horse units have crappy devices, no? I don't think he can save Sydney. Not with those forces, anyway. He needs a whole lot more. I think you're in the clear.

(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 375
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/24/2015 7:15:14 AM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline
Ugh, tough decision, but I'm out of time.

I'm deliberate attacking Sydney again this turn, Jan. 11th. I must try to take the base and will have to hope the defenders are in dire straits. KB is almost completely out of sorties and I can no longer risk my carriers. I see three courses of action ahead of me.

A deliberate assault against Sydney with full KB support. If the base falls, KB heads to Rabaul to rearm/replenish next turn, escorting all the transports along the way.

The base does not fall to deliberate attack, my ground forces need rest and a follow up assault the next day is out of the question. KB heads for Rabaul to rearm/replenish, escorting all the transports along the way.

If disruption is manageable after a failed deliberate, a final shock attack the next day to try and take Sydney. KB stays on course for Rabaul. The ground forces are on their own until KB can return.

I must get results like the very first deliberate attack when I achieved a 1:1. Baby needs a new pair of shoes and some rolls!

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 12/24/2015 8:20:03 AM >


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Post #: 376
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/24/2015 11:11:07 AM   
PaxMondo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

.. results like the very first deliberate attack when I achieved a 1:1. .

yep. don't know if that was a really good roll or your last attack was a bad one. hoping the latter ...

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Post #: 377
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/24/2015 6:13:38 PM   
SqzMyLemon


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From: Alberta, Canada
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Jan. 11/42:

Almost at Sydney! Bad luck again though. Second deliberate attack where KB's planes were grounded due to weather and provided no support. In both cases I only managed 1:2 odds. I can only guess what would have happened had the bombers flown in both attacks. I don't know why I'm getting such low adjusted AV considering the situation, I have good leaders and the troops were not in that bad of shape. Either poor rolls or I don't understand land combat well. Regardless, the battle for Sydney is almost finished. The Allies lost most of their remaining combat capability and the next attack will do it. Disruption for Japanese units is high again, but I'll rest and finish this up in a day or two. AAR follows:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ground combat at Sydney (90,167)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 52238 troops, 460 guns, 134 vehicles, Assault Value = 1526

Defending force 27239 troops, 405 guns, 337 vehicles, Assault Value = 296

Japanese adjusted assault: 666

Allied adjusted defense: 713

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
1775 casualties reported
Squads: 7 destroyed, 93 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 27 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 9 disabled

Allied ground losses:
1082 casualties reported
Squads: 38 destroyed, 138 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 49 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 25 disabled
Guns lost 61 (18 destroyed, 43 disabled)
Vehicles lost 22 (5 destroyed, 17 disabled)

Assaulting units:
24th Infantry Regiment
16th Infantry Regiment
33rd Division
16th Engineer Regiment
2nd Tank Regiment
56th Engineer Regiment
4th Division
2nd Recon Regiment
21st Division
20th Infantry Regiment
2nd Engineer Regiment
7th Tank Regiment
148th Infantry Rgt /2
16th Army
56th Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Field Artillery Regiment
113th Infantry Rgt /2

Defending units:
14th Australian Brigade
6th LH Motor Regiment
5th Australian Brigade
1st LH MG Regiment
6th Australian Brigade
9th Australian Brigade
8th Australian Brigade
28th Australian Brigade
Sydney Fortress
1st Australian Army
Sydney OTU Base Force
21st Fld RAA Regiment
RAAF Command
2/4th Ind Coy
16th Fld RAA Regiment
New Guinea Force
1st RAA Med Arty Regiment
Sydney RAN Base Force
4th Aus Lt AA Regiment

Once Sydney falls, the real fight begins. I don't want to have captured the base, but end up losing the war because of it. I have much to do over the next two months to turn this around and lockdown the perimeter. The Allied B-17's are becoming a problem in China, I need to deal with them soon.


_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 378
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/24/2015 6:13:55 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
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From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline
Merry Christmas everyone and I hope you all enjoy time with family and friends. Stay safe!

Joseph

_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 379
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/24/2015 6:55:52 PM   
Lokasenna


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In my experience, large drops in your adjusted AV come from the following, even if the (-) for that category is not listed. The +/- on AV adjustment does not seem to be a toggle, only an indication of where you fell on the sliding scale of adjustment. What I mean by this is that seeing disruption(-) means that at least one unit in your stack had disruption high enough to trigger the message, while another unit might have disruption only half of that and still have its AV adjusted...just not by as large of an amount.

-Leaders can affect this (multiple times per leader, too... make sure you get a leader with 60+ Land, Inspiration, and even Aggression), and seem to be pretty random (I had a thread a while back where I had a leader with 60+ in each category, yet still received the penalty on several occasions).
-Disruption
-Fatigue
-Lack of support
-Lack of supplies


Those are the big 5. There are other things (Experience, preparation if defending, HQ bonus, etc.), but that's it.

If I were you, I would consider a shock attack in 2 days. If you can bomb for 2 days, then you might be good.

Can you transfer KB's Vals to a nearby AF to bomb? They don't use sorties there .

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 380
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/24/2015 10:11:44 PM   
PaxMondo


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+1
You need to keep bombing and your next attack needs to be shock.

He's gonna be down to ~250 unadjusted AV ... with a shock, you should take it.

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Post #: 381
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/24/2015 10:12:39 PM   
PaxMondo


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dup

< Message edited by PaxMondo -- 12/28/2015 1:03:00 AM >


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RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/24/2015 11:41:27 PM   
SqzMyLemon


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KB is off for Rabaul. Had weather cooperated during the last two deliberate assaults I might be in a better position, but that was completely out of my control.

I had good leaders, support and supply. I had acceptable levels of disruption/fatigue for my main divisions, the smaller units were what they were and considering they make up only roughly 25% of the total force, if they determined the adjusted AV that is just wrong.

I can't bomb anymore and two carriers can't even put up CAP now. Sydney is on it's own. I did everything I could and only got one good ground attack in. KB was grounded for 2 of the 3 deliberate attacks and had weather (luck) not interfered, who knows. If Sydney doesn't fall is was not meant to be.

However, it appears Francois thinks Sydney is done, the relief force has changed direction. I might have the time now so, it's a good time to get KB out. I need to secure Rockhampton and move on Brisbane and the northeast to secure my LOC.

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 12/25/2015 12:42:23 AM >


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Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

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Post #: 383
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/25/2015 12:20:42 AM   
Lokasenna


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From: Iowan in MD/DC
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quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

KB is off for Rabaul. Had weather cooperated during the last two deliberate assaults I might be in a better position, but that was completely out of my control.

I had good leaders, support and supply. I had acceptable levels of disruption/fatigue for my main divisions, the smaller units were what they were and considering they make up only roughly 25% of the total force, if they determined the adjusted AV that is just wrong.

I can't bomb anymore and two carriers can't even put up CAP now. Sydney is on it's own. I did everything I could and only got one good ground attack in. KB was grounded for 2 of the 3 deliberate attacks and had weather (luck) not interfered, who knows. If Sydney doesn't fall is was not meant to be.

However, it appears Francois thinks Sydney is done, the relief force has changed direction. I might have the time now so, it's a good time to get KB out. I need to secure Rockhampton and move on Brisbane and the northeast to secure my LOC.


FYI, CAP doesn't burn sorties.

Can you transfer their air wings to Kembla or the one SW of Sydney to bomb?

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 384
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/25/2015 3:52:54 AM   
PaxMondo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna


FYI, CAP doesn't burn sorties.

Can you transfer their air wings to Kembla or the one SW of Sydney to bomb?


+1

Kembla or New Castle.

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Post #: 385
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/25/2015 4:09:51 AM   
SqzMyLemon


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From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline
Can't do it.

Port Kembla is already at capacity. Aviation support is moving to Newcastle, but will be awhile yet.

Plus, I really don't like KB as vulnerable as it is, but I didn't realize CAP didn't use sorties. Thanks for that nugget.

Another reason I want KB on the move is to be in position to support my reinforcements bound for Rockhampton. Three American heavy cruisers just bombarded Rockhampton last turn. I want those cruisers.

_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 386
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/25/2015 12:02:37 PM   
PaxMondo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: SqzMyLemon

Three American heavy cruisers just bombarded Rockhampton last turn. I want those cruisers.

Understand your desire, but keep your priorities. How will you feel if you get the 3 CA's but fail to take Sydney?

< Message edited by PaxMondo -- 12/25/2015 1:03:18 PM >


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RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/27/2015 5:37:10 PM   
SqzMyLemon


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From: Alberta, Canada
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Jan. 12/42:

This is starting to get old. Two Allied cruisers are spotted northeast of Rockhampton by CVL Zuiho and CVE Hosho at a range of 5 hexes. Both carriers launch morning and afternoon airstrikes, but both fail to find the target due to weather.

This is becoming nothing short of BS. It's really hard to enjoy this game when you can't even get the weather on your side occasionally. Allied surface ships continue to enjoy a free pass.

Quiet turn otherwise with the usual B-17 raids in China. Japanese bombers are inflicting no sustainable damage against targets in this game, so I'm unable to suppress fort construction pretty much anywhere.

I've ordered a shock attack against Sydney. I don't believe the troops are ready, but at this stage I figure since nothing else is going well I might as well take chances now.

As far as I'm concerned, this has become a multiplayer PBEM. Myself vs. Francois and the AI.

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 12/27/2015 6:38:49 PM >


_____________________________

Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

(in reply to SqzMyLemon)
Post #: 388
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/27/2015 9:13:04 PM   
PaxMondo


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Ach, lost another reply.

Sydney: Clear now that your first roll was a VERY good one. You will need to Shock to get the odds. Get them rested ...

Hosho/Zuiho are not the KB. Unless you did some serious upgrades to their starting complements, you're looking at less than 24 total strike and search aircraft. That means your spotting was a one time hit, low DL, and low odds to prosecute.

You are spread too thin and you are counting on far too many long odds situations. Consolidate your forces, focus your power, achieve your critical goals. Right now those are Sydney and the 3 critical oil fields in the DEI. You can't afford to be anywhere else for the next 3 - 4 weeks. Ex: you shouldn't be in the Solomon's ... you took Rabaul as a staging point .. the rest you can't afford the diversion .... You can't be looking at Ambon ... you need Palembang, Bali, and Miri ... Just my opinion, use as you see fit.

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Post #: 389
RE: Insert witty AAR title here - Sqz(J) vs. fcharton (A) - 12/27/2015 9:44:20 PM   
SqzMyLemon


Posts: 4239
Joined: 10/30/2009
From: Alberta, Canada
Status: offline
Those cruisers were spotted, a strike launched and weather prevented an attack. It's a tactical situation that arose during the turn. I'm disappointed that I couldn't get an attack in, it runs no deeper than that. It's been happening all game and it's frustrating.

< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 12/27/2015 10:46:12 PM >


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Luck is the residue of design - John Milton

Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)

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Post #: 390
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