Slitherine

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Mine was a poke of good nature. Of course, he might see something in a Burma move that does not stand out here, or that many of us would not agree with.

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ORIGINAL: Alfred

I see the map on post #5271 and see many strategically profitable opportunities for Japan to use the assets released from Sabang.  Most of those opportunities entail no risk.

1.  Just as Canoerebel is receiving advice in his AAR from third parties on what grounds can one postulate the view the same thing is no happening in his opponent's AAR.  That being so why assume that good advice is not being proffered there and that John will not heed it.

2.  It is irrelevant the strength and size of the Allied units which will surrender at Sabang.  What is relevant is they will be removed from the OOB.  Unless The Allies have hidden in a rear area base a cadre of each of the units amounting to about 40% of the unit's TOE, these surrendered units are not going to be able to make a useful return to the battle field for 4-6 months minimum.  And for those who don't bother checking up on the facts, just the infantry units involved are:

20 Ind Div
99 Ind Bde
18 Brit Div
503 Para Rgt
32 Inf Div
27 Inf Div
1 Mar Div
164 Inf Rgt
182 Inf Rgt
132 Inf Rgt


The 9th and 21st Mar Rgt had a fragment present at Sabang.  Where the parents were I don't know so I don't factor them in to the diminution of the OOB.

3.  The Japanese units shown in post #5238 are not that beat up.  Look at their unadjusted AV.  That is enough to defeat the 500 AV at Calcutta.  What they are missing from their TOE they can fully recover in 2-4 months minimum less time than the resurrected Allied units can enter the battlefield.  Their adjusted AV will be far higher if fighting in the temperate climes of Calcutta.

4.  From the strategic map there are 4 profitable land operations open to Japan.

(a) overland to Ramree and create another Allied pocket just like Sabang

(b) punch north of Magwee to either capture the oil and fuel of Ledo or swing down on Cox/Chittagong

(c) roll up China from the west via Paoshan

(d)  roll up China from the south via Tuyun

Really no need for the IJN to be present but keeping some of the IJN surface fleet to suppress Ramree could be entertained.  But if Japan wants to involve the IJN, there are some other additional opportunities albeit with greater but not necessarily unacceptable risk.

5.  Why has there been no fighting in Burma for months.  Well the obvious answer is that both sides are equally matched.  Japan can however introduce all the freed up LCUs at any single point it desires and smash through what is in situ.  The Allied forces currently present in India may be sturdy today when Sabang remains Allied but there will be no reinforcements to match the Japanese reinforcements.  No Allied reinforcements because

(a) the destroyed units are off the OOB for 4-6 months
(b) most of the destroyed units will take about 2 months to reach the CBI frontlines
(c) the strategic Allied reserve is known to be deployed in the Aleutians and soon will be seen to be deployed in the Marshalls

6.  So why would a good strategic Japanese player waste time and fuel to relocate to meet the Allies where they are strong just to recover some coral and rocks which mean nothing to Japan.  Why seek battle in the east where a lopsided IJN victory is not guaranteed, where the most likely outcome is a degree of attrition which does not benefit Japan to recover some rocks and coral which can never be held unless the KB is permanently parked there.  Parking the KB there, just to protect rocks and coral surrenders the initiative and when that occurs, Japan has lost the war.

7.  As to those saying Japan taking any offensive action is pointless, well by the same logic, attacking on 7 December 1941 is just as pointless.  Strong strategic Japanese players know there are good offensive opportunities in 1943.  Especially when they are playing a souped up Japanese mod.

Alfred 

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
And some of John's divisions have been taking a pounding. He's been rotating them in and out. Others (especially Imperial Guards) were beat up badly early and are now rebuilt. But the bottom line is that it will take some time for John to rebuild his army from those divisions. In the meantime, defenses in India will continue to get stronger.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Final decisions made. One APD will carry a cadre of a 'chutes battaliion to Majuro to see if it's vacant (it hasn't been built up at all and it doesn't start with a CD unit, so there's a chance that it's open). A BB TF will bombard Maloelap to suppress the airfield (hopefully) and to gauge the shore guns. The float plans on most BBs will fly recon missions over Maloelap, Mili, Wotje and Jaluit. And the bulk of the TFs will move a bit to the SW, essentially into the gap between Maloelap and Majuro. This is all in preparation for the commencement of amphibious assaults day after tomorrow.

The biggest questions I have are: (1) Will a Half KB strike? and (2) will LBA sortie?

Based upon everything I'm seeing, I don't think there's a Half KB here, but I'm not positive. So, as you might expect, the pucker factor is high.

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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

We discussed "where does John go from here" a few pages back. I think he is somewhat limited by lack of carriers. I doubt he'll forge deeply into the unknown without them. But there are some candidates like Diego Garcia, Ramree Island (and Assam) and the Perth region that might draw his attention.

India would be a very tough thing for him to try now. Many of his divisions in Sumatra are relatively beaten up. Second, the Allies have a stout army with lots of forts and a big airforce in this theater. For instance, Calcutta has 500 AV behind six forts. Viz and Coconado have good garrisons and forts.

I am modestly concerned about an invasion of Chittagong or Cox's Bazaar to isolate the Allied armies at Akyab and Ramree. But each of these position is pretty strongly held and under a big air umbrella.

But more than anything, I think I know John. He's a navy man. He thinks navy. He thinks oceans. He thinks islands. And if the Allies are pressing forward in the Aluetians or CenPac, and if the Allied navy is there, then I think John will be drawn there.

We'll know soon. When Sabang falls, I think we'll next see those seven BBs (or most of them) in the Pacific.

I may be wrong, but the Allies do have good defenses in depth and have been building forts and stockpiling supply since the start of the game. As another for instance, India has a bunch of Sea Bee uinits working at small, interior, obscure bases to help protect against paratroop assaults.

I bet the coming months sees a concentrations of forces and sharp action in the Pacific.

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Canoerebel: But Majuro is open and should be easy pickings if I need it (it's a 1(1) port and 0(0) airfield).

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ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

AKEs and AEs (of bigger size for BBs) can actually replenish your surface forces in a O-level port. Hopefully you have some ADs as well to replenish your DD torpedoes. EDIT: And AGPs to replenish PTs. So, no need to actually take a Level-4 Port if you brought enough aux vessels to the party. Of course, another consideration is providing sufficient air cover so they don't all get sunk.

Cheers,
CC