Canoerebel
Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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8/23/43
Thin Man: The dance just became more complicated, with opportunities and perils abounding. John moved both of his carrier groups decisively eastward. He may be seeking a pincer movement, though I'm not sure how effective a pincer movement is when one side is Steroid and the other is Weak. Many times, I see through a glass darkly. There is a temptation to wonder if John has lost his mind. But from experience I know he knows what he's doing. So I'd better beware. But there are opportunities here. And perils.
For the first time in three or four turns, all Allied assets move where I think they're going to move. The main carrier TFs and amphib TFs all converge on the hex east of Mili, with and SC TF doing considerable damage to an IJN sub. Otherwise, this Allied armada isn't molested, but CAP knocks down 5 or 10 search aircraft.
Steroid KB moves 9 hexes NE (as you'll see on the map I'll post in a bit). I don't know if damaged Raikaku is present or not. Mini KB moves 9 hexes east (hey, what's with that? I thought Mini KB would be slower?) and ends up two hexes NW of Baker Island. This appears to be a pincer movement by John, as though he wants to move behind Death Star, between the Marshalls and Hawaii. But is forces are divided, and I just don't think he can create either a hammer and anvil situation or an embargo situation in which the Allied ships are rendered unable to return home (as they have enough fuel and replenishment ability to remain on station for quite some time to come. I'll discuss this more in the map.
OpsReport confirmed another AO sunk in the IO during that surface combat clash in January. John's lost a fair number of these ships, to the point I wonder if refueling presents any real problems for him. Since he's out there steaming around pretty far from home, I assume not. I can't make major decisions on guesswork like that, but I just wonder.
A patrolling 4EB reports hitting CL Nagara, which took a 1,000-pounder near Ailinglaplap yesterday.
No enemy combat TFs "inside" the Marshalls or in close proximity to the west. The TF nearing the dot hex to the north is now sitting atop it. But there was no FT invasion. I bet John's organizing for such.
Very little supply delivered today since most ships are disbanded in port until the coast is somewhat clear and the Allies can offer more sure protection. Some of the lagging TFs and others that departed Pearl belatedly have had to pull back close to Johnston with enemy carriers making such aggressive forward moves.
Troops at San Fran are nearly 100% prepped for Wake Island, but they are restricted, so I won't buy them unless it looks like Wake would take place before Carnival. A lot turns on the outcome of any pending carrier battle. If the Allies prevailed, suddenly lots of opportunities arise, so I want to be able to act on them. With troops prepping for many islands from the Marshalls to Truk, that's the case in CenPac. And an army is prepped to move against all the Japanese islands in the Aleutians. But if the Allies lose a carrier battle, then it's a much different ballgame. I believe the Aleutians are safe from meaningful counterattack, but not so the Marshalls. So, above all, I had better not lose a carrier battle. That's a higher priority at this point in the game than winning one.
Circus: Quiet on the front lines in the north, where there doesn't seem to be a major naval presence right now. John may be sending everything to CenPac seeking decisive battle. Again, fuel consumption is subtle issue. Lots of Allied activity further back as ships and troops are now mostly well-position for Operation Carnival. 5th Indian Division is 100% prepped for Amchitka.
Australia: Several recent SigInt reports that 2nd Tank Div. is inbound to Darwin. Almost certainly John is planning a campaign to retake Tennant Creek. That's a nice base to have, but the only real significance would be that any enemy troops that show up in a base hex are subject to 4EB attacks. Massed LBA against a tank division in the desert sounds good.
1st Marine Div.: The brave boys of Sumatra will reform at San Fran in less than a week. I'll split the unit into three parts and begin rebuilding immediately. It'll have low experience. But I think I'm going to prep it for Eniwetok. With a stacking limit of just 6k, an attack by 125 AV would probably be enough (assuming that the Allies control the sea and can bombard to their hearts desire - a formula that seems to doom any 6k island no matter how many forts and shore guns are present).
< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/30/2016 6:31:18 AM >
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