Canoerebel
Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002 From: Northwestern Georgia, USA Status: offline
|
So what is John doing? I'm getting enough information via SigInt and NavSearch, augmented by my familiarity with my longtime opponent's proclivities, to hazard a few guesses. 1. It appears that he is moving troops en masse from the Solomons (and probably from the Gilberts, Marshalls, New Guinea, etc.). It does not look like he's committing them to a counter-invasion in the Big Tent AOO. At least, not yet. It looks like Mindanao is his highest priority at the moment. 2. KB is off the radar at the moment, but was last seen as part of the movement of powerful elements of the Kaigun to the Truk area. I do not think John is biding his time looking for a chance to pounce on the retiring Allied ships (if, indeed, he assumes they are going to retire soon). I think he'll consider picking off key bases. To me, Midway and Wake are the only ones that make sense. Those will help him going forward, though not directly in connection with Big Tent. They are irrelevant to the ongoing invasion at this point. So retaking either or both would instead assist him in future operations and by reconstituting a buffer between Hawaii and the Home Islands. Invasions of the Gilberts or Marshalls would be a complete waste of assets. I don't need them any more and probably would ignore any base or bases lost. They are now 2,000 miles behind the front lines and not necessary to future operations. 3. He might pounce on the LOC between Oz and NZ/Fiji. This would appeal to John's raiding mentality. There are Allied ships out there, including a few CVEs and combat ships. 4. Of all these options, only invasions of Wake or Pearl would accomplish anything materially beneficial to Japan, to my way of thinking. And even that wouldn't affect the ongoing operations in the DEI, meaning they would be a misallocation of assets. 5. John's best two options would be (1) to conserve his carriers until more are available and until he refreshes his air corps, or (2) to place them somewhere near the DEI to keep me honest, slow me down, limit how efficient I can be in delivering supply and moving my ships around. He probably doesn't want to take on Death Star, but just position KB near Ternate or Talaud-Eilenden or Wolei would force me to slow down and keep my assets well protected. If he doesn't choose this course of operation, I'll expedite supply delivery. And if KB goes off too far, I'll look for chances to spread the perimeter by additional invasions in the DEI.
< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 10/14/2016 6:37:12 PM >
|