Canoerebel
Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002 From: Northwestern Georgia, USA Status: offline
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Flicker, good questions, so get ready for a long, long post. :) There are three primary objectives in the game: (1) destroy the Japanese Navy; (2) close on the DEI to attack John's oil LOC; and (3) obtain the airfields necessary to strategic bomb Japan's industry. I think I'm making satisfactory progress on counts one and two. Those, in turn, help create the environment in which it will be possible to work on number three. When the Allies shifted everything into the Pacific in early '43, I pretty much knew how I wanted things to unfold for the balance of the year, up to and including Big Tent. So even while I was prepping for Alaska in May, I was thinking about and planning for Big Tent for the autumn. Things are a bit different now. Of paramount importance is securing the DEI (while not ignoring offense). In addition to base building and supply, this means securing one of the two possible LOCs to the DEI from friendly territory. Originally the preferred route was across northern New Guinea to the Gilberts. Now I much prefer southern New Guinea to Oz. Third Ring is the op to secure that LOC by taking out the choke-point bases - Port Moresby, Horn Island and Merauke. The troops needed for that op (and to reinforce the DEI strongly) are ready to go and 100% prepped (though many are still restricted, so I'm stockpiling political points). Once I secure the Big Tent AOO (could be as soon as a month, probably no longer than two months), John's position at the three bases will no longer be tenable - he won't have a secure LOC to resupply these bases, which are already under daily air attack. I expect supply to be an issue. What happens then? What happens after Third Ring is complete and Big Tent is strong enough to stand alone, meaning without Death Star to provide security? The one thing I won't do is whatever John is preparing for. If he socks Mindanao or Java full of troops, I'll find another vector of attack. I'll look for a weakness to exploit somewhere. I have troops at Pearl prepping for Marcus, which is almost certainly needed at some point. I might also take on Eniwetok and Kwajalein (the latter just to free up the troops I have sitting there). But really the Marshalls and Gilberts and Solomons and possibly even the Carolines are irrelevant now. I don't need them to reach the DEI (Oz will handle that theater). So when the time comes to again move in real strength - probably late spring or early summer '44 - I'll move somewhere deeper and big. Obvious candidates would be Hokkaido, Taiwan, Leyte and the Marianas. But China and Korea would also be possibilities. For the next few months, John is going to devote a lot of time and resources to create a new main line of defense. That line is going to include Mindanao and, in all likelihood, Borneo, and Java. He'll probably attend properly to Luzon, Taiwan, Okinawa, the Marianas, and Hokkaido. I'll do what I can to feed his paranoia, where doing so serves my interests. I'll be monitoring base building and SigInt for these regions. And, at the moment, I'm thinking foremost about Hainan Island and the China coast, with western Borneo (Miri, Brunei, Kuching, etc.) in second place, and some other places in third. At the moment Oz isn't an issue. But when the Allies consolidate their position in the DEI, especially at Taberfane, Dobo and Kai-Eilendeed, John's positions at Darwin and Timor will become tenuous. I think I'll let the Japanese positions in western Oz mainly just whither away while I work closer to Japan. Winter is nigh in the Arctic. I won't be doing anything major there until spring of '44 or later, if ever.
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