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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/19/2017 6:25:31 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/7/44

Fun House: Much going on in the Philippines AOO. Allied army will arrive at Batangas tomorrow. Will enemy army move out first? (No movement dot, but that's not always reliable.)

I think John might try a massed air raid on my troops when they reach Batangas. That hex is too far from my airfields to allow for effective LRCAP. But I'm working on a notion.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/20/2017 10:35:13 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/8/44

Fun House: Allied attack at Batangas tomorrow - a critical event for the Luzon campaign. Is John prepared? I look for massed waves of enemy bombers. But Mini KB is down near Timor, a stout combat TF is in the Makassar Strait, and KB not be close by either.

Burma: Allied attack near Rahaeng comes off at 1:2 but big cracks showing in the enemy defenses.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/20/2017 11:03:09 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		OOB for the Allied army attacking tomorrow.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/21/2017 1:32:15 AM   
AcePylut


Posts: 1494
Joined: 3/19/2004
Status: offline 		I can't seem to find the base "redacted" on the map.... would you care to show me on the strategic map, where this base is located?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/21/2017 1:53:53 AM   
Capt. Harlock


Posts: 5358
Joined: 9/15/2001
From: Los Angeles
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

I can't seem to find the base "redacted" on the map.... would you care to show me on the strategic map, where this base is located?


50 klicks NE of Shangri-La.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/21/2017 2:05:21 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Redacted is the primary target of Peep Show.

Oz fuel stores up to 401k. That's a net gain over the past several weeks, which is noteworthy because a number of AO/TK TFs have recently filled up with oil. The logistics network is operating smoothly at the moment.

The Battle of Batangas is huge. I don't know what's going to happen, but I do know this: It's lovely ground for an attack.

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Post #: 9546
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/21/2017 3:07:18 AM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		I love all the mystery with redacted and such! Keep it up.

Hard to see how Japan thinks they can fight in open terrain. Maybe with 40 units there, 15 of them heavy AA & the tank divisions and the ability to cycle in and out spent units.

Have you seen the tank divisions recently?

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Post #: 9547
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/21/2017 3:09:12 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		2nd Tank Division is in Indochina on the Chinese border. A bunch of tank regiments just got chewed up in Burma. I don't know where 1st Tank Division or the other major tank units are.

I don't think John currently has any AA at Batangas or at Manila. But he has some in Thailand and at his major oil producing bases.

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Post #: 9548
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/21/2017 3:39:40 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/9/44

Battle of Batangas: Opening Allied deliberate attack comes in at a high-end 1:1, drops forts to 2, and inflicts greater casualties on the Japanese army. Combat sequence showed four enemy divisions of less than 300 AV, suggesting they'd been beaten up a bit during the bombing campaign (no bombers flew today due to weather, darn it).

John is in big trouble here unless his army withdraws to Manila before tomorrow's attack. Eventually my bombers will fly again and now I have a level 2 airfield nearby, so that I am better able to LRCAP my own guys.

John's army is beat up and it doesn't look like he has reinforcements nearby (Manila only has 17k troops; none of his other bases has more than that). I have another 1,000 AV (two divisions and a RCT) a hex to the south. Having just arrived, they are standing down from Strat Mode and will need nearly a week to make it to the front. One of these is a strong and experienced Australian division.

If the Japanese are thrown from the hex with high losses...what will John do?

In about three weeks, I'll be ready to land in strength on the north side of Luzon, unless circumstances persuade me that a different plan is preferable.

Fun House: Death Star and the Herd are ready to invade Miri tomorrow. I lost an LST to a sub today, but other than that it was uneventful down that way. I can't imagine John sitting still while threatened with the loss of Miri and his Luzon army. Where is KB? Where is the Kaigun? Imagine what the Japanese would have done in the real war. John's smarter than that and loves his navy more than the "honor" of the Empire...but will he actually fiddle why Luzon burns?

I don't think he will. I think he's thought this through. If so, tomorrow would be a day for him to strike.

Pacific and Vicinity: Lots of Allied carriers, combat ships, troop transports, and merchantmen at sea. This will be clarified in a day or two, as several big groups are nearing enemy waters.

Burma: Allied army west of Rahaeng drew supply and will attack tomorrow. Allied bombers work over Rahaeng and Pisanoluke airfields each day (they fly every day while the Philippine air force is shut down by weather every day, darn it).









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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 3/21/2017 3:40:49 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/21/2017 3:50:14 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		I blew your map up to 240% and don't see a movement dot out of Batangas. IF that is true, you have lots of options.

What kind of tanks are you fielding there? Are there no Japanese artillery units there either?





< Message edited by Lowpe -- 3/21/2017 3:52:35 PM >

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Post #: 9550
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/21/2017 3:58:03 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline 		Don't need to blow it up. Can confirm - there's no movement dot there. If you have DL 9/10 on the base, you would see one if it were there.

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Post #: 9551
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/21/2017 4:12:56 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		No movement dots where there should be movement dots. No Japanese artillery, armor, anti-tank weapons or AA where there should be. And the Japanese are standing in open terrain.

"Madness."




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/21/2017 7:05:12 PM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		I'm very confused by John standing & fighting here - better to suck you into Manila & rely on the urban terrain and forts to bleed you.

He's about to lose any hope of holding Luzon...and I don't understand why.

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Post #: 9553
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/21/2017 7:17:12 PM   
Grfin Zeppelin


Posts: 1515
Joined: 12/3/2007
From: Germany
Status: offline 		He is basically throwing away 4 Divisions.

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Post #: 9554
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/21/2017 7:30:12 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Unless John has out-thought me so that I'm about to learn something new and unpleasant, I see it the same way you guys do.

He could be pulling back - if he vacates tomorrow, he'll still be in relatively good shape. That'll deflate my balloon of delighted surprise and wonder.

It's also possible that he froze in his thinking - overwhelmed by the strength of the Allied air force but unable to bring himself to give me a free advance into Manila.

Speaking of which, Manila is urban light, which is 2x. So, speaking only from a defensive multiplier standpoint, it's the same as attacking in jungle or rough terrain? (The jungle-rough combination is 3x, though.) So, from a defensive multiplier standpoint, attacking John in Manila is similar to attacking him in Rahaeng or Palembang (swamp) or Nanning from a defensive multiplier standpoint.

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Post #: 9555
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/21/2017 7:57:21 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline 		Could it be that he just held in that position a few days too long without realizing it? Moving when under near daily air attack is usually a much slower affair, first for flipping to combat mode when relevant, and the increased disruption is a huge factor. He might have had the troops moving in combat mode to stave off unnecessary casualties, making your attack more successful without showing any mode(-) penalties.

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Post #: 9556
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/21/2017 9:39:21 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		John's seen this coming for a week or ten days. My army had to advance up the peninsula. And surely veterans are speaking up in his AAR. Yet he's acting like this took him by surprise. If he had planned an elaborate bushwhack, he'd be flipping turns. He isn't. If he'd seen this unfolding belatedly, he'd be reacting energetically to extract his army...and he'd be flipping turns hoping his guys would escape in time. But he isn't. Instead he's acting disinterested...disengaged...uninvolved.

If he truly was surprised (I don't see how that can be) then we'll know soon. He'll react strongly, committing his air force and possibly combat ships to buy time.

...and, when all is said and done, perhaps his army waltzes right out of Batangas today, so that I've been flappin' my gums in vain.

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Post #: 9557
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/21/2017 10:12:07 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline 		Mostly we talk about which 6" hoagies are on sale today at Subway.

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Post #: 9558
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/21/2017 10:37:10 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Mostly we talk about which 6" hoagies are on sale today at Subway.

And...???

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Post #: 9559
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/21/2017 10:58:35 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		My army won't attack at Batangas tomorrow. All of the infantry and some of the other units are short on supply. A few tank units will attack and some of the others will bombard.

Further south, D-Day at Miri will be the day after tomorrow. My TFs will take an unusual course and move a few hexes north (west, true) of the base. I typically hug the coast in shallow water, so John may expect similar conduct this turn. This allows me to keep my TFs tight rather than having them sprint to the beaches.

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Post #: 9560
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/21/2017 10:58:40 PM   
Lowpe


Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Mostly we talk about which 6" hoagies are on sale today at Subway.

And...???

Are asking me to break opsec? Go to Subway and find out for yourself!

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 9561
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/21/2017 11:18:53 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 26087
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Mostly we talk about which 6" hoagies are on sale today at Subway.

And...???

Are asking me to break opsec? Go to Subway and find out for yourself!

It's not like I'm going to pass the info to Quiznos or FireHouse Subs!

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Post #: 9562
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/22/2017 1:47:19 PM   
Lokasenna


Posts: 9297
Joined: 3/3/2012
From: Iowan in MD/DC
Status: offline 		Maybe he's trying to buy time for an additional level of forts at Manila? Still wouldn't be worth it, though - only +25% on the multiplier from one more level of forts.

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Post #: 9563
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 7:06:02 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		6/10/44

Battle of Luzon: Allied bombers flew en masse against Batangas, doing heavy (but not catastrophic) damage. A couple of tank units then attacked and found enemy AV drastically reduced. John's stack shows a movement dot, so he's belatedly trying to evacuate. My troops are rested and fully supplied and will shock attack tomorrow. If this succeeds, John's losses could be catastrophic and his Luzon defenses crippled. This will be a key battle.

Weather forecast is for heavy rain, so my bombers probably won't fly...but his probably won't either. He hasn't employed them yet, but I think he's panicked now and realized what's happening. SigInt reports AA inbound to San Fernando, another belated move on his part.

He didn't like B-29s flying against his ground troops, referring to it as a "close support" mission. That's probably the tip of the iceberg to how he really feels. He just doesn't know - I've kept my bombers at 10k even though he has no AA, simply to accommodate his prejudices. And I've used my B29s only sparingly to this point. Where he's had fighters and AA, the effect of my LBA is seriously reduced...yet here he elects to fight on open ground without the benefit of either defense (though fighters showed up today).

My impression is that John has mishandled Luzon, as he did Burma earlier in 1944. He didn't understand the nature of the campaign, the risks, and when to pull back. I hope the end results unfold much the same way, but there's still a lot of fighting to be done.

Fun House: D-Day Miri tomorrow, as 6th Australian Div. (61% prepped) comes ashore. John has 4k troops - probably less than 150 AV - and good terrain. I'm not using bombardment TFs until I know the strength of the defenses. But Miri's in trouble unless John does something soon.

Thailand: John is using the jungle terrain and remoteness to good effect west of Rahaeng, but the most recent Allied attack drove down his AV pretty sharply. I think the next attack will push his guys out of the hex.

Elsewhere: Some key events about to transpire in the Pacific. I think John is getting some info now, but I won't say anything yet. Mini KB is in the Timor Sea, where she poses a threat to my DEI shipping...but I'm awfully glad she's off in that corner of the war.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 7:20:56 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Mini KB continues to loiter far from the main action...but in a position to threaten the Allied LOC from Oz to the DEI.






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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 11:07:48 AM   
paullus99


Posts: 1985
Joined: 1/23/2002
Status: offline 		Definitely seems like a "day late and a dollar short." Another symptom of John not really having a good handle on the ground game mechanics, especially not including AA in his defensive formations (or offensive formations for that matter).

In the space of a month, he's functionally lost the PI & also Burma, and he will have a very hard time extricating his forces out of the area...which means that he'll be out of position, once again, when you make your next move.

The similarities to historical Japanese moves is very interesting to watch.

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Post #: 9566
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 2:24:07 PM   
Lecivius


Posts: 4845
Joined: 8/5/2007
From: Denver
Status: offline 		Just a curious observation. I note you are doing a shock attack at Batangas, with a few units set to Deliberate. Why not set them all to shock? I would expect a higher roll on a shock attach would return more massive casualties. I know I'm letting my ignorance show, but I am truly curious.

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Post #: 9567
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 2:27:50 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		The armored units that attacked yesterday have higher disruption, so they will deliberate attack, as will the combat engineers and one of my infantry divisions - the one that suffered the highest disablements two days ago. So one infantry division, one combat engineers, and perhaps three armor to deliberate attack, with three infantry divisions and two or three armored units to shock attack.

I'm trying to inflict maximum damage without taking the edge off my own units. After all, this is just the beginning of a long campaign.

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Post #: 9568
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 2:35:33 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Attack orders in detail.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 3/23/2017 2:39:18 PM   
MakeeLearn


Posts: 4278
Joined: 9/11/2016
Status: offline 		Showing a lil' redacted cleavage

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Post #: 9570
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