RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bravo (A)

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RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/5/2017 2:12:11 PM

Lowpe

Posts: 22133
Joined: 2/25/2013
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He is close.

Flying normal attacks at 10 to 15k against the deathstar yields losses like you saw. But it is information. Scroll down and read his patrol heights.

Your best bet on a day like this is one squadron attacking, even a 1/3rd of sentai attacking but escorted by 200-500 of your best fighters flying at 30K. That is what I call a poor mans sweep. The other option I never tried would be to do the same thing at 2000 feet. I have been tempted to try one large betty/nell/jill squadron attacking at 2000 feet with torps and all the fighters you have providing a layered escort at 2000, 3000, 4000, 5000 feet etc.

The other option is to get some surface ships, destroyers most likely, and get it out near the deathstar to draw an aerial attack. Of course you have it heavily lrcap. Much easier to kill his planes as they attack. Also it might slow down the TF coming depending upon their settings.

Figure his invasion fleets can make 6 hexes....I guess? Maybe more? Help me out here AFBS? They are certainly in range to bombard provided he isn't running short of fuel.

If he does bombard he has two choices remain on station or retire back to Pearl/Midway/Wake. Perhaps there is an opportunity to hit the retiring fleets? Count hexes.

If you are flying in troops...be careful this turn as he may actually put CVE TF in those hexes providing CAP over the bombardment TF. Then again he might not do that.

On the good news front none of your minefields are spotted.

To be effective you need 1000 mines massed, 300 will do something, and of course you will need CD and DP guns covering them.

Without a matching 500 plane escort nothing will get thru...and even then they will take a huge beating and will need experience and skill to make hits. 1000 fighters would be better. However getting land base air to coordinate to that degree is very tough hence my suggestions from above.

I wouldn't have hesitated to run in 3-4 ship destroyer groups into that mass yesterday and try to get good night time engagements. Might have scattered something, and you could have staggered the range on the aerial attacks. Plus they might have actually gotten thru...say a lucky torpedo hit, or even just draining the Battleships main gun ammo.

I will be brutally honest. Allies are bleeding you, you aren't bleeding him and he is very, very close. Depending upon his CAP settings, which you didn't post, you might have at least caused a jump in plane and pilot fatigue...but you also gave him a jump on pilot experience too.

(in reply to el lobo)

Post #: 1051

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/6/2017 5:22:34 AM

PaxMondo

Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

Without a matching 500 plane escort nothing will get thru...and even then they will take a huge beating and will need experience and skill to make hits. 1000 fighters would be better. However getting land base air to coordinate to that degree is very tough hence my suggestions from above.

Hence the LBA numbers I laid out. I agree with everything else Lowpe said. You cannot trickle in with 100 planes, you lose 50, he loses 1. You either have +1000 aircraft going in, or do not go in. Unless at night. At night, you can attack with what you want.

The CAP you saw is not his full CAP, it is half at best. As stated before, he will have up to 1600 aircraft coming at you from his CV's. I always go with the high number as there is no downside. Assume he has re-balanced the ships and is 50% fighter, 30%DB, 20%TB. That's 800 fighters. Me? I wouldn't attack with less than 2000 aircraft, in '43 that is just about every single LBA air group you have that is not restricted.

Now, you will not get a wave of 2000 aircraft to go in ... no way. you will get 20 - 30 waves of 50 - 100 aircraft*. The first 10 waves will be slaughtered, the last 10 will face the AA will little to no fighter cover. If you have not depleted the AA with night attacks, you will get 3% - 5% hits assuming 70% skill/exp pilots. You can do the math .... if those last 10 contain 1000 aircraft, thats going to be 30 - 50 hits. So, you are spending 2000 aircraft to get maybe 40 hits. They will be either amphibs or capital ships if your DL is high. Figure it takes 3 hits to put a ship out of combat, 5 to sink. 10% of your hits will be kami in mid-43. those if they hit count double.

If you have been able to deplete the allied AA ... oh, your hit rate can double or more. 80 hits ... that's a lot of smoking ships. All of this is from sand boxing these types of attacks. Lotta variables here, and the actual outcomes will vary wildly because even if you have 2000 they may not launch due to weather, the target is obscured by weather, etc. etc. etc. But these things all tend to balance out. If you can't hit him due to weather, his CAP likely doesn't launch and you hit other ships with little loss except a lot of supply and accumulated fatigue. etc etc etc. All tradeoffs, and you assess after the first attack.

Point being you are offering to trade +1000 planes to set him back 6 months to a year. I always make that trade.

The second day, if the first goes off to plan is when you want to use the KB. You are now near parity with him. Alpha strike with the KB, LRCAP from LBA. KB has your best pilots and planes to hit naval targets. If you sent 2000 the first day and hit him, he is going to be seriously depleted. His fighters will be fatigued, a lot will be in repair, but he may not yet be thinking of withdrawal. If he does withdraw, you still launch and clean up all of the cripples. Do not chase.

*I will say that you might get really lucky and have some big waves go in. I have seen it, just not a high probability. If they are early, the losses will still be very high, but the toll on the CAP is even higher. If they are later, say the last one were to go in with 250 planes, your hit rate would be much higher. AA cannot concentrate as much (by appearances), anyway, you get more hits.

_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 1052

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/6/2017 12:10:52 PM

Lowpe

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Joined: 2/25/2013
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I should mention that the poor mans sweep strategy I mentioned above, was for the distant approach:

distance from base:

21 hexes away and closer night torpedo attacks if you can pull them off with Emily/Nell.

12 hexes away & closer high altitude poor mans sweep & surges with destroyer squadrons (plus LRCAP).

6-7-8 hexes are getting within range to hit it with everything.

Really super rough guideline....

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/6/2017 12:11:17 PM >

(in reply to PaxMondo)

Post #: 1053

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/6/2017 12:38:05 PM

PaxMondo

Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I should mention that the poor mans sweep strategy I mentioned above, was for the distant approach:

distance from base:

21 hexes away and closer night torpedo attacks if you can pull them off with Emily/Nell.

12 hexes away & closer high altitude poor mans sweep & surges with destroyer squadrons (plus LRCAP).

6-7-8 hexes are getting within range to hit it with everything.

Really super rough guideline....

+1 except no downside to continuing night attacks at any range.

Be sure to have your subs in the area to collect pilots. I had one sub once collect more than 30 pilots. don't ask me they were sitting as that was one crowded sub.

< Message edited by PaxMondo -- 5/6/2017 12:44:00 PM >

_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 1054

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/6/2017 1:08:45 PM

el lobo

Posts: 825
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From: Khon Kaen, Thailand (orig: Sacramento, CA)
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Thanks Guys. A lot of great information there. A couple of questions later but I need to catch-up. Looking around like this, sometimes you find an egg or two.

PACIFIC -AIR Jun 21, 1943 Turn 562

Shown below, not counting Yokohama, ~199 Fighters in various states of repair, plus the KB and Junyo.

Here is what I am bringing as far as fighters:

George, 2 x 45, 3 x 36, five to six days, 1 x 9, two days, ~ 200.
Jack, 1 x 36, 3 x 27, five to six days, 1 x 17, two days, ~120.
Tojo, 5 x 42, 1 x 30, five to six days, 6-7 x 12-14, various, ~270.
Zero, 1 x 45 plus various smaller units,~ 80.

More later.

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

El Lobo (J) vs Rio Bravo (A)
Rio Bravo's AAR - "The War College"
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3851786

Gamey is not a game style. It is someone's definition.

(in reply to PaxMondo)

Post #: 1055

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/6/2017 1:12:18 PM

el lobo

Posts: 825
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From: Khon Kaen, Thailand (orig: Sacramento, CA)
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quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Be sure to have your subs in the area to collect pilots. I had one sub once collect more than 30 pilots. don't ask me they were sitting as that was one crowded sub.

Funny.

I once had an air unit with one fighter and twenty-six pilots fly from Tokyo to Singapore.

_____________________________

El Lobo (J) vs Rio Bravo (A)
Rio Bravo's AAR - "The War College"
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3851786

Gamey is not a game style. It is someone's definition.

(in reply to PaxMondo)

Post #: 1056

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/6/2017 1:13:32 PM

Lowpe

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Joined: 2/25/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I should mention that the poor mans sweep strategy I mentioned above, was for the distant approach:

distance from base:

21 hexes away and closer night torpedo attacks if you can pull them off with Emily/Nell.

12 hexes away & closer high altitude poor mans sweep & surges with destroyer squadrons (plus LRCAP).

6-7-8 hexes are getting within range to hit it with everything.

Really super rough guideline....

+1 except no downside to continuing night attacks at any range.

I did say and closer.

You can even use Peggy/Helens at low level too during the night. They will eat up a lot of flak shots, low approach, low bomb, and low escape.

(in reply to PaxMondo)

Post #: 1057

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/6/2017 4:05:20 PM

PaxMondo

Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I should mention that the poor mans sweep strategy I mentioned above, was for the distant approach:

distance from base:

21 hexes away and closer night torpedo attacks if you can pull them off with Emily/Nell.

12 hexes away & closer high altitude poor mans sweep & surges with destroyer squadrons (plus LRCAP).

6-7-8 hexes are getting within range to hit it with everything.

Really super rough guideline....

+1 except no downside to continuing night attacks at any range.

I did say and closer.

Oops, miss-read on my part. sorry!

_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 1058

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/6/2017 4:07:53 PM

Lowpe

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Joined: 2/25/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: el lobo

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Be sure to have your subs in the area to collect pilots. I had one sub once collect more than 30 pilots. don't ask me they were sitting as that was one crowded sub.

Funny.

I once had an air unit with one fighter and twenty-six pilots fly from Tokyo to Singapore.

There is a pool of transport pilots. They are not combat trained, a lot of time were women, that ferried planes.

(in reply to el lobo)

Post #: 1059

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 12:34:08 AM

el lobo

Posts: 825
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From: Khon Kaen, Thailand (orig: Sacramento, CA)
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: el lobo

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Be sure to have your subs in the area to collect pilots. I had one sub once collect more than 30 pilots. don't ask me they were sitting as that was one crowded sub.

Funny.

I once had an air unit with one fighter and twenty-six pilots fly from Tokyo to Singapore.

There is a pool of transport pilots. They are not combat trained, a lot of time were women, that ferried planes.

* handing Lowpe a cup of coffee * Lowpe, ONE plane, TWENTY-SIX fighter pilots.

I think you read vise versa.

_____________________________

El Lobo (J) vs Rio Bravo (A)
Rio Bravo's AAR - "The War College"
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3851786

Gamey is not a game style. It is someone's definition.

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 1060

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 12:36:45 AM

el lobo

Posts: 825
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From: Khon Kaen, Thailand (orig: Sacramento, CA)
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I wouldn't have hesitated to run in 3-4 ship destroyer groups into that mass yesterday and try to get good night time engagements. Might have scattered something, and you could have staggered the range on the aerial attacks. Plus they might have actually gotten thru...say a lucky torpedo hit, or even just draining the Battleships main gun ammo.

I still want to try this but I am not sure of the settings. I think I remember from your AAR, Retirement Allowed, and Max React (6), but what is the best way to make sure that they attempt an intersect?

_____________________________

El Lobo (J) vs Rio Bravo (A)
Rio Bravo's AAR - "The War College"
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3851786

Gamey is not a game style. It is someone's definition.

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 1061

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 12:39:18 AM

el lobo

Posts: 825
Joined: 7/20/2013
From: Khon Kaen, Thailand (orig: Sacramento, CA)
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PACIFIC -SEA Jun 21, 1943 Turn 562

Here are most of the fighting ships in the area. Most of the ones not litsted are subs.

The KBs have two BBs and thirteen DDs with them, not counting Junyo's escort of three DDs which will return.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by el lobo -- 5/7/2017 12:42:17 AM >

_____________________________

El Lobo (J) vs Rio Bravo (A)
Rio Bravo's AAR - "The War College"
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3851786

Gamey is not a game style. It is someone's definition.

(in reply to el lobo)

Post #: 1062

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 1:43:42 AM

PaxMondo

Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: el lobo
* handing Lowpe a cup of coffee * Lowpe, ONE plane, TWENTY-SIX fighter pilots. I think you read vise versa.

_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to el lobo)

Post #: 1063

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 1:46:19 AM

Lowpe

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Joined: 2/25/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: el lobo

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

I wouldn't have hesitated to run in 3-4 ship destroyer groups into that mass yesterday and try to get good night time engagements. Might have scattered something, and you could have staggered the range on the aerial attacks. Plus they might have actually gotten thru...say a lucky torpedo hit, or even just draining the Battleships main gun ammo.

I still want to try this but I am not sure of the settings. I think I remember from your AAR, Retirement Allowed, and Max React (6), but what is the best way to make sure that they attempt an intersect?

So to have an encounter on your last turn, if you would have had say 4 destroyers with an aggressive leader, patrolling say Saipan with a reaction set high they might have reacted if they had ops points left, if your dl is good, etc., etc...

You want to be patrolling a hex, or range of hexes, high encounter range, plenty of ops points left after subtracting out your movement, retirement allowed, a close port set as your home, plentiful fuel and ammo, high aggression leader, and good detection levels. DL can't be high enough.

(in reply to el lobo)

Post #: 1064

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 1:46:46 AM

Anachro

Posts: 2506
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From: The Coastal Elite
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Looking forward to the fireworks!!!

(in reply to PaxMondo)

Post #: 1065

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 1:47:10 AM

Lowpe

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Joined: 2/25/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: el lobo

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

quote:

ORIGINAL: el lobo

quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Be sure to have your subs in the area to collect pilots. I had one sub once collect more than 30 pilots. don't ask me they were sitting as that was one crowded sub.

Funny.

I once had an air unit with one fighter and twenty-six pilots fly from Tokyo to Singapore.

There is a pool of transport pilots. They are not combat trained, a lot of time were women, that ferried planes.

* handing Lowpe a cup of coffee * Lowpe, ONE plane, TWENTY-SIX fighter pilots. I think you read vise versa.

Absoultey did!

I drink tea, not coffee...but you are dead on.

(in reply to el lobo)

Post #: 1066

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 1:48:58 AM

PaxMondo

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It looks to me he is setup for his run in. one turn, maybe two.

_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to PaxMondo)

Post #: 1067

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 1:51:06 AM

Lowpe

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Joined: 2/25/2013
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quote:

ORIGINAL: el lobo

PACIFIC -SEA Jun 21, 1943 Turn 562

Here are most of the fighting ships in the area. Most of the ones not litsted are subs.

The KBs have two BBs and thirteen DDs with them, not counting Junyo's escort of three DDs which will return.

So what are your plans? Do the Allies have DL on all your task forces? How strong are your ground forces?

I can't remember how heavy ship losses have been in this game...

No Japanese minefields?

< Message edited by Lowpe -- 5/7/2017 1:53:22 AM >

(in reply to el lobo)

Post #: 1068

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 1:58:12 AM

PaxMondo

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I've erased this twice, but I just have to say it: I don't think you have enough to stop him. Sorry. With what info you have provided and the screen shots and what you have said of your opponent, I would be pulling out. This is what I see:

You have less than half of the Nihon Kaigun. He likely is coming with the US Navy and some of the Brits.

You have about 1600 AC total in the area, he has 1600 attack aircraft coming at you. And his on average are better. And since they are all US Navy from CV, they will have higher coordination on average.

He's going to hit the beach with at least 2 ID + 1 ARM Bde. he likely has 2 ID in reserve.

Now, if my assessment is wrong (you have more in place) ... and if that forward allied group (5 hex east of Saipan) is his amphib and cv's ready to come in, then this is when I would launch my 2000 plane LBA attack turn. I would set the range to within 2 hex of Saipan, I would not want to fly out to him. So the attack only launches if he comes in ... if I have Netties on IWO, they are all flying night attacks .... Good Luck!

< Message edited by PaxMondo -- 5/7/2017 2:02:06 AM >

_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to PaxMondo)

Post #: 1069

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 1:59:46 AM

PaxMondo

Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
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dup

< Message edited by PaxMondo -- 5/7/2017 2:00:08 AM >

_____________________________

Pax

(in reply to PaxMondo)

Post #: 1070

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 7:16:16 AM

adarbrauner

Posts: 1496
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From: Zichron Yaaqov, Israel; Before, Treviso, Italy
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I still keep my opinion;

I would wait for his first airport strikes, down and attrite as much as possible of his airplanes especially the fighters, before launching my air strikes (exception made for night strikes, free and roaming);

if he's coming straight to bombard the airfields, as much probably he is, I' d send in ALL of the surface fleet, Nihon Kaigun?, under the heaviest cap/lrcap, to intercept him after the bombardement - he either "retreat" his battleships toward Wake for a few hexes only or unprobably remains on the shores, so the interception should be easy and close to the islands , I think;

Pax sees, understands and writes that you've not deployed yet ALL of the fleet close the islands (good analitical eyes)...I'm unable to discern it from the screenshot you provided.
In any case Rio is likely to employ all of his much powerful main surface ships, so you really need all hands to confront him.

(in reply to PaxMondo)

Post #: 1071

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 7:20:27 AM

adarbrauner

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I agree that if Rio have resized his fighter squadrons, so the equation is changed sensibly in his favor, but I'm still very confident you can badly blood him, and possibly force him to retreat.

Yo have A LOT of good cards in your hands.

You too can resize some of your fighter groups at Truk, can't you??

A bit late to do it, but not too much, and definitely worthy of doing, in my opinion, if you have the planes and pilots!

(in reply to adarbrauner)

Post #: 1072

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 7:28:10 AM

adarbrauner

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quote:

ORIGINAL: el lobo

Thanks Guys. A lot of great information there. A couple of questions later but I need to catch-up. Looking around like this, sometimes you find an egg or two.

PACIFIC -AIR Jun 21, 1943 Turn 562

Shown below, not counting Yokohama, ~199 Fighters in various states of repair, plus the KB and Junyo.

Here is what I am bringing as far as fighters:

George, 2 x 45, 3 x 36, five to six days, 1 x 9, two days, ~ 200.
Jack, 1 x 36, 3 x 27, five to six days, 1 x 17, two days, ~120.
Tojo, 5 x 42, 1 x 30, five to six days, 6-7 x 12-14, various, ~270.
Zero, 1 x 45 plus various smaller units,~ 80.

More later.

Numbers of what you have already in the islands are not sufficient; they're going to be swept away by Rio, even if supported by LRCAPS from the carriers;

numbers of what you are bringing in though are good, pretty good; the delays in bringing them, not so much;

now everything depend on execution and details- and on how many airfields Rio shall let you land and operate your airplanes from, and what service conditions are they left.

WOW!

Usually those who make less mistakes than their oppionents win.

(in reply to el lobo)

Post #: 1073

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 12:41:42 PM

el lobo

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From: Khon Kaen, Thailand (orig: Sacramento, CA)
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Wow, this is interesting.

I started working on the turn this afternoon (my time) and then wrote-up a post for the AAR. I went back through the last few pages of this AAR to make sure I did not have any major conflicts. I came back to this page and you guys are posting faster than I can read them.

After reading Pax's post, even though it was a little early for my daily six ounces of red wine, I decided I needed to think about all this. BTW, thanks for posting it.

Basically I think I am going to stick with the plan I wrote-up (below). I feel that if I retreat now, we will be having this conversation again in two weeks rather than a month from now. I am going to lose the ground units anyway. I have some splinters out but if I retreat I will not be able to get any more splinters, so maybe a bigger loss in the long-run. Maybe a couple of more air groups lost, but maybe not.

The other consideration is the game-play. I started this game with very little experience and with the help of some great people, I have learned a lot, but, I still have much more to learn. I already have experience retreating in Burma and it is time to learn more about fighting.

Besides, what is the worse that can happen, Japan lose the war? Or lose the war six months, a year earlier, or sooner. Doesn't bother me a bit.

Here is what I wrote-up earlier. I was going to write more but if I want to get this turn off tonight, I need to start to work, err, I mean to start having fun.

To Lowpe's questions.

Capital ship losses for both sides has been very light. Two CAs, one CL and three DDs for me, three CLs and eight DDs for Rio. (I sank two BBs but they were going to withdraw anyway, so they don't count.)

Plans. (Partial, sorry.)

Of the three tactical options, I will go-all-in. Cede and nip may be something to be considered if the conditions dictate, and complete retreat is not the Japanese Way.

I am going to make some educated guesses, OK, OK, assumptions. Based on his past vector, that he is gong for the southern islands first. That all his carriers are in the TFs we see six hexes east of Guam. If his main carriers are further-out, OK, but I will plan worst case scenario.

Air.

As has been pointed-out, continuing as I have, Rio will bleed me. Since I don't have the fighters on station yet, my plan is to go defensive until more of them arrive, two or three days at least. If I still have some air fields by the time they arrive, then I will try to organize some massive raids such as you and Pax describe.

I have six more Nettie units that I can bring counting the two at the Bonins, but I think I will leave the unit on Marcus for awhile. I will bring them this turn and stand them down for a turn. I will set the three that are presently located on the Marianas for night and then alternate them as suggested.

Air-Sea

Amazingly, I have no detection levels on any of the TFs. Of course he now knows the location the KBs.

Here is the big question, where to put the KBs.

I am thinking of bringing the KBs N/W of Pagan as shown below. This will sort-of put the islands "at my back" be able to have a little more effective ASW.

If I count hexes correctly, this should put the KBs eight hexes from the hex just east of Rota.

(Stay tuned.)

Attachment (1)

_____________________________

El Lobo (J) vs Rio Bravo (A)
Rio Bravo's AAR - "The War College"
http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3851786

Gamey is not a game style. It is someone's definition.

(in reply to adarbrauner)

Post #: 1074

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 12:53:47 PM

Lowpe

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What range will you set the strike planes on the KB to?

How are you protecting the runways and planes in the Marianas...I bet every single one of them could be bombarded at night.

Are you leaving the planes in the Marianas?

(in reply to el lobo)

Post #: 1075

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 3:32:44 PM

adarbrauner

Posts: 1496
Joined: 11/3/2016
From: Zichron Yaaqov, Israel; Before, Treviso, Italy
Status: offline

Ok

unfortunately I could not have resisted but had a read at Rio's reports.

This means I'm much seriously limited in my interventions here, if not totally (and , believe me, I'm biting hard at the belt).

I hope I'll resist.

I've just finely selected some propaganda excerpts for appreciation by the Imperial General HQs:

"I haven't a clue how El Lobo will respond. If he responds xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

I do know one thing; the Allied xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx is going to be more interesting than the present battles waging in Burma and China. *laughing hard*

I am prepared. I bought a bottle of scotch.

Best Regards,

-Terry "

and some from seemingly recently promoted to Captain's rank (instead of being demoted to Ensign) Haggard"

" [...] It's amazing to me that we are literally hexes away from discovering whether my Admiral is a mad man... or a genius...

Most respectfully,

Hag "

< Message edited by adarbrauner -- 5/7/2017 3:35:48 PM >

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 1076

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 4:56:51 PM

PaxMondo

Posts: 9750
Joined: 6/6/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lowpe

How are you protecting the runways and planes in the Marianas...I bet every single one of them could be bombarded at night.

This is the key issue with waiting ... you then need to have a solid defense against Naval bombardments. Defenses exist, and Lowpe outlined some elements of them to you (minefields, PT/MTB, SSX). If you cannot stop the bombardments you will find:

air bases at over 50% damage so no offensive missions
supply reduced by up to 50%
units disorganized and morale losses
air groups morale loss and plane fatigue

All of these combine to taking your LBA out of the equation. This leaves you only the KB, and in mid-43 he has both longer legs and harder hitting. He can hit you easily at 8 hex with full alpha ... you can only retaliate with TB's ... it is not a fair fight which is exactly what the allies intend.

If you put your SCTF's into play, the best arrangement is for smaller ~6 ship TF's, but that preclude effective CAP. This forces you into sub-optimal large TF's, you will stop some of his bombardments, but assuredely not all of them. You run out of action points or ammo before you can.

Given what you are showing to us, this is not a good scenario.

To answer your question; How bad can this be? You can easily lose the KB here. With the subs at your back and detected, what this will do is force the KB to react towards the low dl TF's in front of you. Puts you in range of a killing blow. Remember, reaction you cannot directly control, you can only predict it and the attempt to mitigate it.

You have low DL on the TF's in front because he is knocking down your NavSearch before it reports to you ... you need both more NavSearch and you need to change it up.

As I said above, the situation you are showing us is not an IJ friendly scenario. I would pull back, re-group, get ready for the Bonins/PI. You have a better idea of what is needed. Just know that in 6 months, he won't have 1600, he will have just over 2000 AC coming at you, so your LBA requirement is then 3000 aircraft .... knowing that, you know what you need to do .... Bonins are VERY hard to defend. almost impossible. PI? One of the best places to ambush the allies for me. I always like the PI .... sure I'm gonna lose it, but there are a lot of ways to make the allies pay a dear price for it.

However, I am eager to watch because there is always something to learn and I can be proved wrong (again). Years ago Joseph in a game did just that. I didn't think he could do something, and voile', he did it. I know I never could have, first off because I would never try, but he did. Don't claim I'm a great player, hardly. I know the economy, I know force ratios. and I know how to calc odds.

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Pax

(in reply to Lowpe)

Post #: 1077

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 5:09:32 PM

PaxMondo

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Joined: 6/6/2008
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Last comments, Rio is doing too many things right here. Either he is a very good player or he is getting coached by some really good players. A lot of subtle things happening that I don't normally see from players of your two reputed ilks. Makes me doubly nervous because of that ....

This is early for the allies to come out. Makes me suspicious that this is a fake (but I am always suspicious), I am guarding against him attempting to draw me into an battle to find that he has loaded his CV's with fighters ... 1600 fighters would decimate even a 2000 AC attack ... you would lose ~1000 aircraft, he would lose ~100, he remotely re-groups and then attacks as you have no air power to stop him. That is why I suggested setting the LBA to 2 hexes off of Saipan (or Guam if you think he going there first). I don't want the LBA attack ranging out to where he is ... it attacks only if he is coming in with amphibs ...

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Pax

(in reply to PaxMondo)

Post #: 1078

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 5:14:21 PM

Anachro

Posts: 2506
Joined: 11/23/2015
From: The Coastal Elite
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quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMondo

Last comments, Rio is doing too many things right here. Either he is a very good player or he is getting coached by some really good players. A lot of subtle things happening that I don't normally see from players of your two reputed ilks. Makes me doubly nervous because of that ....

If you don't mind me asking, what are the things he is doing right? I'd like to know for my own gameplay!

quote:

ORIGINAL: el lobo
Capital ship losses for both sides has been very light. Two CAs, one CL and three DDs for me, three CLs and eight DDs for Rio. (I sank two BBs but they were going to withdraw anyway, so they don't count.)

Wow, that is extremely light! You must've been completely bored until now - I know I would be!

(in reply to PaxMondo)

Post #: 1079

RE: The Gamiest Game in Town. El Lobo (J), vs. Rio Bra... - 5/7/2017 5:53:04 PM

PaxMondo

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Joined: 6/6/2008
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Flanking subs, grouping units, withholding his attacks, target selection, DL management, ...

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Pax

(in reply to Anachro)

Post #: 1080

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