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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/10/2017 12:00:51 AM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Ningpo Front: I'm hoping that the opening week of the Ningpo campaign left John misinformed. The Allies took Ningpo using two dvisions and an Aussie brigade. Since then, three more divisions and lots of artillery have come ashore. I don't think John knows what I have yet.

John has two divisions at Shaohing. If I can bust through there, I think John's position around the Shanghai sector will be seriously threatened. First attack in probably two days. But BB West Virginia/BB Valiant TF will bombard tonight.





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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/10/2017 12:15:47 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Amoy Front: One of us has badly miscalculated here. I think it's John. The planned Allied retreat to the coast during Operation Peep Show convinced John my guys were on the run. He's afraid on my bombers, so he's been cautious, but finally talked himself into advancing and attacking. The results have not been good for him. The attacks weakened his army and my 2EB and 4EB are working over his stacks. I think his army is going to weaken to the point that my guys will blow through. Then his line will collapse, much as the one in Burma did a early in the year.

If the Allies do bust through in the Amoy Front - I think it'll be about 10 days or so - then the Japanese position in China should become tenuous. The impact should spread to the Changsha and Shanghai fronts.

Or so I think.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/10/2017 12:26:28 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Inverse Sir Robin: KB East is making its way towards the DEI again. The Heart of the War is the East China Sea but my stubborn opponent doesn't see it my way.

John's radical points conserving strategy hasn't worked, I think. I think there's merit to conserving points but not if, by doing so, it materially expedites the Allies getting into position for strategic bombing.

We'll know a lot more by the end of the year. But John is playing a weird Sir Robin strategy. I presume that Chickenboy is giving him fits. :)




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Post #: 11733
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/10/2017 1:38:44 AM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: AcePylut

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

Moppo would not be useful to you from a strategic bombing perspective, as it would be constantly harassed. However, you could probably farm that for VPs as well. Just not as many as an aerial campaign with 2Es/4Es and fighters.


How so? With the potential for level 9 port and level 9 airfield and 4 hexes from 6 major bases (not including that heavy urban city)... I don't see how it could be harassed effectively. Mosquito bites and pin-****s, sure... but I think the positives outweigh that. Canoe can put up too much CAP and too many mines. It would make a great springboard to get to other Korea bases....and also it can start knocking down the 8k Manchuko Garrison requirement and possibly activate the USSR "much sooner", possibly bringing the war to an end much much faster than just strat bombing would do.


Even E's and SC's can bombard the place. Just because AF9 has no stacking limits doesn't mean stacking level doesn't apply to damage taken from bombardments.

Moppo just isn't worth it unless the IJN is completely neutered. It's not yet.

(in reply to AcePylut)
Post #: 11734
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/10/2017 5:19:07 PM   
AcePylut


Posts: 1494
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Status: offline 		Well I was thinking that the base would have hundreds of fighters on CAP, hundreds of mines, multiple SCTF’s “in the hex” to interdict and disrupt incoming bombardments, subs, and too many troops for any possible counterattack. As so, I’m trying to pretend to be Japan in late ’44, and trying to figure out what they could really do beyond a few bites here and there. All that really exists that imho might be a threat is the KB and a 5000 plane Kami attack. I would almost welcome an attack from these two angles, because, well, the Kami’s are one-shot weapons and if he does that, there goes that threat for a while. The only real threat is the KB, and per Dans search, it doesn’t appear to be anywhere close to being a threat.

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Post #: 11735
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/10/2017 8:17:29 PM   
BBfanboy


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Status: offline 		5000 Kamikazes? I thought there were only a dozen or so kamikaze squadrons so the number can never exceed a few hundred?

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 11736
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/10/2017 9:51:53 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Status: offline 		10/28/44

Fancy Pants: B-24Js stubbornly refuse to fly from Manila, giving John's little army at Chachow another reprieve - and hopefully a brief one. IJ air attack from Shanghai against shipping at Ningpo gets chewed up.




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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 8/10/2017 9:53:42 PM >

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Post #: 11737
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/11/2017 12:14:10 AM   
BBfanboy


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Status: offline 		Seems strange that Osaka's HI and LI have suffered so badly from the fires but only one aircraft (Tony) plant has taken damage.
In Tokyo and Nagasaki the damage is spread around a bit more.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

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Post #: 11738
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/11/2017 12:31:38 AM   
Flicker

 

Posts: 229
Joined: 11/24/2011
From: Rocket City USA
Status: offline 		I'm learning a lot from this AAR. I'm pleasantly surprised by the victory points generated by manpower bombing. I still say 'Shanghai' but just getting close enough to strat bomb is more important now (to me).

I like Wenchow because it generates supply - at least you get some return from the garrison.


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Post #: 11739
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/11/2017 12:55:06 AM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		Lowpe said the strat bombing learning curve was tough. He was right.

Lokasenna urged, "Bomb at 2k! The losses are worth it." He was right.

Targeting Manpower definitely seems the way to go. I'm taking pretty heavy losses now at 2k (sometimes 3k or 4k) - in fact, the losses aren't sustainable. At this rate, I'll run out of B-29s in about a month. But the hits scored at 2k are dramatically higher than at 8k or 10k or more. Dramatically. Enough so that the attrition/point scored is probably considerably lower.

And there's hope. I'm hoping that getting the B-24Js flying from Ningpo will take a big part of the load.

And the newer, fast, longer-range B-29s start coming online in three days. I probably won't get them in the war for at least two or three weeks but they'll make a big impact before the year is out, I think. (It takes a long time for B-29s that arrive at East Coast to make West Coast and become airworthy and make the hops to Midway to Formosa).

I probably need to score another 30k to 40k strategic points to get within striking range of auto victory by year's end. That may be possible but it's going to be hard. If auto vic is the objective, I probably need to forego the DEI and pour all resources - supply, men, ships, aircraft - into Formosa and the China campaign. That's the most efficient, will open up ground war possibilities, and keeps my schwerpunkt intact as my air force turns its full attention on Japan.


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Post #: 11740
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/11/2017 1:08:25 AM   
jwolf

 

Posts: 2493
Joined: 12/3/2013
Status: offline 		Was the Japanese air raid from Shanghai a "normal" raid, or Kamikazes?

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Post #: 11741
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/11/2017 1:24:18 AM   
Canoerebel


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Status: offline 		Normal bombing raid.

John's flown a few kamikaze raids in the DEI - mostly Zeroes that end up targeting PT boats and LCTs to little effect.

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Post #: 11742
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/11/2017 3:46:09 AM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Seems strange that Osaka's HI and LI have suffered so badly from the fires but only one aircraft (Tony) plant has taken damage.
In Tokyo and Nagasaki the damage is spread around a bit more.


To me, it looks like the reason is because the non-industry factories are much smaller. At Tokyo and Nagasaki, the factories are larger - more likely to suffer some damaged when rolled up against 1K-point industries.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 11743
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/11/2017 3:47:34 AM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Lowpe said the strat bombing learning curve was tough. He was right.

Lokasenna urged, "Bomb at 2k! The losses are worth it." He was right.

Targeting Manpower definitely seems the way to go. I'm taking pretty heavy losses now at 2k (sometimes 3k or 4k) - in fact, the losses aren't sustainable. At this rate, I'll run out of B-29s in about a month. But the hits scored at 2k are dramatically higher than at 8k or 10k or more. Dramatically. Enough so that the attrition/point scored is probably considerably lower.

And there's hope. I'm hoping that getting the B-24Js flying from Ningpo will take a big part of the load.

And the newer, fast, longer-range B-29s start coming online in three days. I probably won't get them in the war for at least two or three weeks but they'll make a big impact before the year is out, I think. (It takes a long time for B-29s that arrive at East Coast to make West Coast and become airworthy and make the hops to Midway to Formosa).

I probably need to score another 30k to 40k strategic points to get within striking range of auto victory by year's end. That may be possible but it's going to be hard. If auto vic is the objective, I probably need to forego the DEI and pour all resources - supply, men, ships, aircraft - into Formosa and the China campaign. That's the most efficient, will open up ground war possibilities, and keeps my schwerpunkt intact as my air force turns its full attention on Japan.




When I switched to "long term" bombing for points, I upped my altitude to 7K (minimum to avoid balloons). In most cases.

When I really wanted to bomb a particular target, like a certain factory or ships I suspected were in a port, I absolutely hit at 2K. The risk is worth the reward, but it isn't sustainable for B-29s. For B-24s, yes... to an extent.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 11744
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/12/2017 12:23:31 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

5000 Kamikazes? I thought there were only a dozen or so kamikaze squadrons so the number can never exceed a few hundred?


Any group can be made a kami group. The pilots in group at the time have to be less than 50 exp. Japan can have a LOT of kamis.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 11745
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/12/2017 12:27:40 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Lowpe said the strat bombing learning curve was tough. He was right.

Lokasenna urged, "Bomb at 2k! The losses are worth it." He was right.

Targeting Manpower definitely seems the way to go. I'm taking pretty heavy losses now at 2k (sometimes 3k or 4k) - in fact, the losses aren't sustainable. At this rate, I'll run out of B-29s in about a month. But the hits scored at 2k are dramatically higher than at 8k or 10k or more. Dramatically. Enough so that the attrition/point scored is probably considerably lower.

And there's hope. I'm hoping that getting the B-24Js flying from Ningpo will take a big part of the load.

And the newer, fast, longer-range B-29s start coming online in three days. I probably won't get them in the war for at least two or three weeks but they'll make a big impact before the year is out, I think. (It takes a long time for B-29s that arrive at East Coast to make West Coast and become airworthy and make the hops to Midway to Formosa).

I probably need to score another 30k to 40k strategic points to get within striking range of auto victory by year's end. That may be possible but it's going to be hard. If auto vic is the objective, I probably need to forego the DEI and pour all resources - supply, men, ships, aircraft - into Formosa and the China campaign. That's the most efficient, will open up ground war possibilities, and keeps my schwerpunkt intact as my air force turns its full attention on Japan.



Having seen it from the Japanese side I can tell you that 7k is fine. No need to skewer your beasts on balloons.

Keep hitting Tokyo and Osaka. That's about it. Once they're toast, the Japanese economy will begin to unravel. Then pick your spots and torch aircraft factories, big industry bases (don't forget resources work too, and there are some very big resource bases with less defences), and refineries.

The B-29 with no guns and double the load makes it all much easier. Just don't use them in daylight unless you know there is no CAP.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 11746
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/12/2017 6:20:03 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Status: offline 		10/29/44

KB East: John is concentrating a lot of carrier power in the DEI. I'm watching. I have lots of ships moving to and from Rangoon, and to and from Boela. Those are the main concerns. He may be planning a counter-invasion - best guess is south of Phnom Penh. (That wouldn't be a concern even if he landed five divisions with hopes of retaking Bangkok.)




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Post #: 11747
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/12/2017 6:30:33 PM   
Canoerebel


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Bay of Bengal: Allied safeguards are in place just in case John chooses to raid the Bay of Bengal.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/12/2017 6:53:55 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Fancy Pants: Sensing weakness in the enemy stacks at Shaohing, to the north, and Chaochow, to the south, the Allies will attack in strength tomorrow.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/12/2017 7:12:57 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
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Estimating Victory Conditions: Based on current scoring and likely future trends, I think the Allies will achieve victory around February or March 1945. It is possible but difficult to achieve victory in January 1945. And if John manages to rough up the Allies, the ate could be put off until the summer of '45. Something really bad would have to happen to the Allies to push the date further than that.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/12/2017 11:08:39 PM   
JohnDillworth


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Status: offline 		just a quick sanity check on your bombardments. You are having your float planes reconing both day and night? never can be 100% sure when bombardment task forces feel like going in

< Message edited by JohnDillworth -- 8/12/2017 11:11:10 PM >

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Post #: 11751
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/13/2017 4:58:23 AM   
Lokasenna


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Having seen it from the Japanese side I can tell you that 7k is fine. No need to skewer your beasts on balloons.



Having been Japanese and seeing bombers at 7K not do what my bombers at 2K do...

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Post #: 11752
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/13/2017 8:28:27 AM   
obvert


Posts: 14050
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Having seen it from the Japanese side I can tell you that 7k is fine. No need to skewer your beasts on balloons.



Having been Japanese and seeing bombers at 7K not do what my bombers at 2K do...


Sure, but you lose and damage the beasts at 2k. Your operation frequency is also a factor in strat bombing. The more strikes the better, so your results might not be as good each strike, but you get more in per week.

_____________________________

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

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Post #: 11753
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/13/2017 3:43:10 PM   
crsutton


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

just a quick sanity check on your bombardments. You are having your float planes reconing both day and night? never can be 100% sure when bombardment task forces feel like going in


Retirement set-night bombardment.
remain on station-day bombardment.

Except if you are bombarding a non base hex which I never really do.

I have never seen this vary in ten years of playing this game.

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Post #: 11754
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/13/2017 5:40:31 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 18046
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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

just a quick sanity check on your bombardments. You are having your float planes reconing both day and night? never can be 100% sure when bombardment task forces feel like going in


Retirement set-night bombardment.
remain on station-day bombardment.

Except if you are bombarding a non base hex which I never really do.

I have never seen this vary in ten years of playing this game.

If you already have a good D/L from night recon, your "Remain on Station" TF has a chance of bombarding both night and day.

_____________________________

No matter how bad a situation is, you can always make it worse. - Chris Hadfield : An Astronaut's Guide To Life On Earth

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 11755
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/13/2017 6:46:17 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
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Status: offline 		10/30/44

The Allies win decisive battles on both the north and sound ends of Fancy Pants. The question becomes: can John stabilize this front or does this destabilize the entire Japanese position in China. I think it's the latter. I think, therefore, that I'm going to poor all units and supply into China rather than breaking contact to attend to the DEI.

Battle of Chaochow: See graphic.




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Post #: 11756
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/13/2017 6:47:13 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		10/30/44

Battle of Shaohing: See graphic.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/13/2017 8:06:47 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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Fancy Pants: Things rapidly heating up in China.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/13/2017 8:12:12 PM   
witpqs


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

just a quick sanity check on your bombardments. You are having your float planes reconing both day and night? never can be 100% sure when bombardment task forces feel like going in


Retirement set-night bombardment.
remain on station-day bombardment.

Except if you are bombarding a non base hex which I never really do.

I have never seen this vary in ten years of playing this game.

If you already have a good D/L from night recon, your "Remain on Station" TF has a chance of bombarding both night and day.

I've never even heard of that.

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Post #: 11759
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 8/13/2017 8:24:46 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 21100
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline 		I don't know one way or the other but in most cases bombardment TFs are good for one run - and one run only. They use a lot of their ammo so that the second run is considerably dampened. You might can affect that my having a low aggression commander that doesn't shoot off a lot of ammo on day one but I've never tried that before. Not sure why I'd do it.

Bombardment TFs, like Starland Vocal Band, are one-hit wonders.

(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 11760
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